Redistricting the New Jersey State Senate

New Jersey has 40 State Legislative districts. Each district elects 1 Senator and 2 Assemblymen. The State Legislature will be up for election in November 2011, so NJ will need to have its districts ready a year earlier than most other states. Currently the State Senate has 24 Democrats and 16 Republicans. Wikipedia has an excellent map of the State Senate makeup here. (The 14th just turned blue in a special election.) The districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission made of 5 Democrats and 5 Republicans appointed by their respective parties. Some Republicans including Governor Christie claim the current map is an unfair gerrymander favoring the Democrats. I disagree.

New Jersey has 8.7 million people (2007 estimate). Each of the 40 Senate Districts must be within 20% (43,413) of the ideal population (217,067). Municipalities can not be split unless they are more than 1/40 of the entire state’s population. Only 2 cities are that big: Newark and Jersey City. The restriction on splitting municipalities makes the 20% rule necessary.

I didn’t consider incumbents’ residency. I’ll let them figure out which district they want to run in, and if they get drawn out of a winnable district then too bad. I didn’t abuse the 20% rule to favor a political party. I tried to apply population discrepancy as fairly as possible.

The Democratic Gerrymander: 31 Democrats, 9 Republicans



1st District: Cape May Co, most of Cumberland Co. 53% Obama, +2998 people. 70% white

This is the weakest of the Democratic districts. It’s impossible to make a safe Democratic district with all of Cape May Co.

2nd District: eastern Atlantic Co. 59% Obama, -1908 people. 59% white

It got smaller (and more Democratic) due to population growth in the Atlantic City area.

3rd District: Deptfords to Bridgeton 57% Obama, +5596 people. 75% white

It’s a little bit sleeker and more Democratic.

4th District: interior Gloucester, Camden, Salem and Atlantic Co. 58% Obama, +6767 people. 75% white

Anchored by strongly Democratic towns such as Winslow and Monroe. The region between Camden and Atlantic City has grown enough to deserve its own district.

5th District: metro Camden 73% Obama, -3477 people. 51% white, 24% black, 21% Hispanic

6th District: Washington (Glo Co) to Evesham 59% Obama, +15839 people. 79% white

The outer townships are swingy, but the middle (Camden Co) part is strongly Democratic.

7th District: Pennsauken/Cherry Hill area 62% Obama, -254 people. 76% white

8th District: Delanco to Pemberton 67% Obama, -5403 people. 59% white, 27% black

Incumbent Republican Diane Allen lives here. This district should be too Democratic and too different for her to win.

9th District: southern Burlington and Ocean Co 42% Obama, +5336 people. 93% white

The biggest district on this map

10th District: Trenton, Hamilton, northern Burl Co 65% Obama, +2523 people. 54% white, 26% black, 16% Hispanic

Hamilton and Bordentown are Democratic at the presidential level but Republican the local level. Combining them with Trenton should stop them from causing trouble.

11th District: Toms River and western Ocean/Monmouth 42% Obama, +6048 people. 87% white

Almost all of the population is in the eastern part: Toms River and the shore towns.

12th District: Lakewood, Brick, Wall, and everything east 37% Obama, +15120 people. 84% white

Don’t let the small size fool you into thinking it’s urban and therefore liberal. It’s the most Republican district in NJ.

13th District: Tinton Falls and everything east except Rumson 57% Obama, -5642 people. 66% white

The Democrats’ best chance at winning part of Monmouth County. Frank Pallone lives here and you can appreciate why it’s hard to draw him into a Democratic congressional district.

14th District: Rumson/Middletown to Howell 42% Obama, -6983 people. 86% white

Republican Monmouth County in all its teabagging glory.

15th District: Old Bridge to Freehold 49% Obama, -587 people. 74% white

The Democrats’ second best chance at winning part of Monmouth County. I count it as a Republican district but maybe in a wave election it could be the Democrats’ 32nd district.

16th District: Robbinsville to East Brunswick 59% Obama, +23790 people. 66% white, 19% Asian

The current 14th but pushed further north.

17th District: Lawrence to Somerville to Frenchtown 62% Obama, +1033 people. 73% white

A Democratic district anchored in Princeton reaches into Hunterdon and Somerset Counties.

18th District: New Brunswick to Bridgewater 64% Obama, +10382 people. 48% white, 16% black, 13% Asian, 21% Hispanic

19th District: Edison to Middlesex Boro 62% Obama, +14589 people. 50% white, 29% Asian

20th District: Sayreville, South Amboy, Perth Amboy, Woodbridge 60% Obama, -9702 people. 47% white, 13% Asian, 30% Hispanic

Edison and Woodbridge are huge towns that each take up most of a Senate district so that limits where these districts can go. Sayreville and South Amboy are swingy but Woodbridge and especially Perth Amboy make it a strong Democratic district.

21st District: Warren Co and most of Hunterdon Co 42% Obama, +79 people. 87% white

1 of 4 Republican districts in the north

22nd District: southern Morris Co and northern Somerset Co 43% Obama, +5683 people. 82% white

23rd District: Plainfield to Morristown 60% Obama, -827 people. 55% white, 20% black, 19% Hispanic

1 of 2 Democratic districts that reaches into Morris Co.

24th District: Carteret to Summit 60% Obama, -4165 people. 64% white, 16% black, 14% Hispanic

This is Tom Kean Jr’s district and it’s probably too Democratic for him to win it. This map is meant to shut Republicans out of Union County.

25th District: Elizabeth, Roselle Park, Union Twp, Kenilworth 68% Obama, -9436 people. 35% white, 17% black, 43% Hispanic

26th District: West Orange to Parsippany 54% Obama, -24058 people. 71% white, 15% Asian

This is the second weakest of the Democratic districts. I hope the Democrats have the balls to go for it. This underpopulated district is balanced out by the 16th, a similar affluent suburban district that’s overpopulated.

27th District: Fairfield to Nutley 58% Obama, -10336 people. 69% white

Northern Essex county makes a clean compact district. This is the kind of district Republicans would have to win to take the State Senate under this map.

28th District: Hillside to East Orange 92% Obama, -1160 people. 70% black

Sure I could break this up and strengthen nearby suburban Democrats but that wouldn’t be fair to black voters. Even though there isn’t a VRA at the state level.

29th District: Newark except the East Ward 94% Obama, +9081 people. 58% black, 33% Hispanic

The East Ward is the part that’s most different from the rest of Newark.

30th District: Newark’s East Ward, Harrison, Kearny, northwest Jersey City 74% Obama, +7567 people. 37% white, 10% black, 15% Asian, 36% Hispanic

31st District: Bayonne, most of Jersey City, Hoboken 76% Obama, -5099 people. 43% white, 23% black, 11% Asian, 21% Hispanic

The part of New Jersey that’s facing Manhattan.

32nd District: northern Hudson Co 70% Obama, -9167 people. 26% white, 66% Hispanic

This is one of the densest places in America.

33rd District: Passaic to Prospect Park 61% Obama, -21711 people. 48% white, 39% Hispanic

34th District: Paterson to Wayne 68% Obama, +15509 people. 36% white, 19% black, 40% Hispanic

The 2 lower Passaic Co districts balance each other out in population and spread Democratic strength as evenly as possible.

35th District: North Arlington to Edgewater 55% Obama, -10610 people. 61% white, 16% Asian, 20% Hispanic

36th District: Hackensack to Wyckoff 57% Obama, +4722 people. 65% white, 19% Hispanic

37th District: Teaneck to Hillsdale 55% Obama, -6373 people. 63% white, 15% Asian, 13% Hispanic

38th District: Fort Lee to Upper Saddle River 55% Obama, -19114 people. 61% white, 21% Asian, 11% Hispanic

Democratic strength is spread evenly over 4 Bergen County districts. There is an incumbent Republican in one of these districts, Gerry Cardinale, who won’t go down without a fight. Sure it might be smarter to make Bergen Co 3-1, but 4-0 can be done if you accept the risk.

39th District: northern Morris and southeast Sussex 44% Obama, -436 people. 78% white

40th District: Sussex Co, upper Passaic Co, far west Bergen Co 42% Obama, +3767 people. 88% white

The Republican Gerrymander: 21 Republicans, 19 Democrats



1st District: Cape May Co, most of Cumberland Co, southern Atlantic Co. 49% Obama, -9122 people. 77% white

There is only so much you can do with a Cape May-Cumberland based district.

2nd District: Atlantic City to Millville 64% Obama, +15480 people. 49% white, 21% black, 24% Hispanic

A Democratic vote sink in southeast NJ.

3rd District: Salem Co, southern Gloucester Co 51% Obama, -11895 people. 84% white

2 Democratic districts grab Democratic pieces of Gloucester Co and this is what’s left. There are a lot of 51% Obama districts in this map and Republicans will have to hold all of them in order to control the State Senate.

4th District: Glassboro to Winslow to Gloucester Twp 65% Obama, +5349 people. 72% white

A Democratic vote sink in fast growing exurban Camden.

5th District: Paulsboro to Cherry Hill 73% Obama, +1310 people. 79% white

A bowtie-shaped district in suburban Camden taking the Deptfords in the west and Cherry Hill/Voorhees in the east.

6th District: metro Camden, Pennsauken 75% Obama, -1862 people. 46% white, 26% black, 24% Hispanic

7th District: northwest Burlington Co 66% Obama, -13652 people. 65% white, 24% black

A Republican district on borrowed time. Diane Allen’s district with super-Democratic Pennsauken removed and swingy Moorestown added.

8th District: mid Burlington Co 54% Obama, -5473 people, 78% white.

More Republican than the current 8th but it’s also on borrowed time.

9th District: Pinelands 45% Obama, +1626 people. 86% white

Maybe the biggest possible legislative district in NJ.

10th District: Manchester and everything east 42% Obama, +3374 people. 89% white

This is the best, most compact possible Toms River district.

11th District: Brick to Neptune/Asbury Park 47% Obama, +11385 people. 81% white

The Democratic stronghold in eastern Monmouth Co gets broken up.

12th District: Ocean Twp to Middletown 48% Obama, -2331 people. 79% white

13th District: Marlboro to Lakewood 42% Obama, +20025 people. 74% white

Lakewood makes it a very Republican district.

14th District: Bordentown to Jackson 49% Obama, +1427 people. 83% white

Hamilton, Robbinsville and Bordentown get combined with Republican territory in Monmouth and Ocean Co.

15th District: mid Mercer Co 77% Obama, -1260 people. 46% white, 28% black, 16% Hispanic

The most Democratic parts of Mercer Co get packed into 1 district.

16th District: East Windsor to North Brunswick 61% Obama, +18056 people. 63% white, 19% Asian

This is the least Democratic of the Democratic districts on this map. It has some swingy territory such as Monroe and Cranbury but it’s not practical to make another Republican district out of it.

17th District: Sayreville to Holmdel 50% Obama, -6665 people. 73% white

Holmdel is the Republican anchor in this district.

18th District: Franklin to Plainfield 73% Obama, -3410 people. 35% white, 29% black, 15% Asian, 19% Hispanic

It packs in Democrats so the rest of Somerset and western Union can go in Republican districts.

19th District: New Brunswick, Edison, South Plainfield 65% Obama, -5455 people. 45% white, 24% Asian, 19% Hispanic

20th District: Woodbridge, Perth Amboy, Carteret, Rahway 65% Obama, -9392 people. 42% white, 11% black, 12% Asian, 33% Hispanic

21st District: Hopewell to southern Warren Co 47% Obama, -14398 people. 87% white

It’s Republican enough to absorb Hopewell.

22nd District: most of Somerset Co 48% Obama, -4927 people. 74% white

23rd District: western Union Co, eastern Somerset Co, except the Plainfields 50% Obama, -15124 people. 81% white

Tom Kean Jr’s district becomes a little more Republican.

24th District: Linden, Roselle, Elizabeth, Hillside 76% Obama, +555 people. 27% white, 25% black, 43% Hispanic

Union County: the extremely Democratic 24th and barely Republican 23rd cancel each other out. Sounds fair, right?

25th District: western Essex Co, eastern Morris Co 45% Obama, +8071 people. 84% white

26th District: West Orange to Clifton 71% Obama, +24087 people. 54% white, 21% black, 16% Hispanic

This is the only white-majority Democratic district in northern NJ. Packing makes all the other Democratic districts majority-minority.

27th District: Union Twp to East Orange 85% Obama, -2308 people. 26% white, 60% black

28th District: Newark except the East Ward 94% Obama, +9081 people. 58% black, 33% Hispanic

29th District: Newark’s East Ward, Harrison, Kearny, northwest Jersey City 74% Obama, +7567 people. 37% white, 10% black, 15% Asian, 36% Hispanic

30st District: Bayonne, most of Jersey City, Hoboken 76% Obama, -5099 people. 43% white, 23% black, 11% Asian, 21% Hispanic

The Newark-to-Jersey-City districts are the same in both the Democratic and Republican gerrymanders. The region is solidly Democratic so partisan gerrymandering gets done elsewhere.

31st District: Northeast Hudson Co, Edgewater, Cliffside Park 71% Obama, +7678 people. 27% white, 64% Hispanic.

This district reaches into Bergen Co instead of Secaucus to make the Republican Meadowlands district possible.

32nd District: south Bergen Co, Secaucus, Belleville, Nutley 52% Obama, -460 people. 67% white, 12% Asian, 18% Hispanic

A tough district the Republicans have to win in order to take a majority in the State Senate.

33rd District: Passaic to Ridgefield 68% Obama, -7147 people. 38% white, 43% Hispanic

34th District: Paterson, Haledon, Fair Lawn, Elmwood Park 77% Obama, +2697 people. 29% white, 21% black, 46% Hispanic

35th District: Teaneck/Englewood area 64% Obama, +3610 people. 46% white, 12% black, 24% Asian, 17% Hispanic

36th District: northern Bergen Co to Saddle Brook 47% Obama, +3657 people. 78% white

37th District: mid Passaic Co, western Bergen Co 46% Obama, -3884 people. 85% white

38th District: southern Morris Co 47% Obama, -7357 people. 72% white

39th District: northern Morris Co and upper Passaic Co 46% Obama, -4254 people. 80% white

40th District: Sussex Co, most of Warren Co 39% Obama, -9579 people. 88% white

Conclusion

It’s possible to give the Democrats 19 to 31 seats. 25 is the logical compromise. I would suggest incumbent protection (24 Dems) plus the two Burlington County Republicans on borrowed time.