Author: duffman

Updated with racial data on 2/17/11

The census has just released its data for New Jersey. Not wasting any time, I have made my post-census redistricting plan for New Jersey. This isn’t a partisan gerrymander, I already did one of those. My goal is communities of interest and reasonable compactness, what a good-government redistricting should look like.

New Jersey has 8,791,894 people. That’s 12 districts with 732,657 or 732,658 people each. And it has to be exact or else someone will sue. However some states don’t require exact population equality. For example Arkansas and West Virginia don’t allow county splitting. While New Jersey’s 21 counties are too big for that, you can keep districts close to the ideal population without splitting any of the 566 municipalities. I think NJ should start doing this. In 1960 Newark had more people than a Congressional district, but that is no longer the case.

All districts are within 1% of the ideal population. No one has any grounds to complain about population inequality. I also minimized county splits.

Counties with fewer than 300,000 people were not split at all.

Counties with fewer than 500,000 people were not split more than once.

No county was split more than twice.

I numbered the Congressional districts from south to north. Most districts are already numbered from south to north and I fixed the ones that aren’t.

South Jersey

South Jersey is currently divided into 1 super-packed Democratic district and 3 barely Republican districts. I think this is an immoral gerrymander. NJ has 6 districts that go all the way, or almost all the way, from the Delaware River to the Atlantic Ocean or Hudson River. This probably goes back to when population in NJ was more concentrated in the cities, so the rest of the state got sliced up into segments. Now that more of the population is in the suburbs they should stop doing that. The Delaware Valley and the Shore (Turnpike corridor and Parkway corridor) are 2 separate communities that should get their own districts. Districts 2 and 3 (and 5) follow the Turnpike corridor and Districts 1 and 4 (and 6) follow the Parkway corridor.

1st District (R+1)

Location: Lower shore, Bay shore, and Pine Barrens

Incumbent: Frank Lobiondo

Population: -4551

Largest city: Vineland

Demographics: 68% White, 12% Black, 15% Hispanic, 3% Asian

It’s currently the 2nd district, but I think the big districts at opposite ends of the state should be 1 and 12, so I’m changing it’s number to the 1st. When driving south on the Parkway this district begins where the cities end. It’s urban areas, Atlantic City and Vineland, are separate from the New York and Philly metro areas. It is home to both of New Jersey’s nuclear power plants. (Does any Congressional District have more than 1 nuclear power plant?) It becomes a little bit more Republican but it’s still a swing district. Any district with all of Atlantic, Cumberland, and Cape May counties is going to be a swing district, between D+3 and R+3, no matter what else you add to it.

2nd District (D+10)

Location: Greater Camden

Incumbent: Rob Andrews

Population: -1758

Largest city: Camden

Demographics: 67% White, 16% Black, 11% Hispanic, 3% Asian

Camden County, the suburbs as well as the city, has grown very little since the 2000 census. So the district had to get bigger. It now includes all of Gloucester County. Unlike Camden, Gloucester County has seen some rapid growth. An enormous planned community was built in the sleepy rural township of Woolwich and in the last 10 years its population went from 3032 to 10200.

3rd District (D+9)

Location: Cherry Hill to Hopewell

Incumbent: Jon Runyan

Population: +742

Largest city: Hamilton

Demographics: 64% White, 19% Black, 10% Hispanic, 5% Asian

It’s shaped like Washington DC; a square with a bite formed by a river boundary. This half of Burlington County has 96% of its population. This district is as Democratic as Delaware, which kept reelecting, by a large margin, a Republican Congressman with a moderate reputation. So it is possible but not likely that Chris Smith could run and win here. If Smith wins the 3rd and is able to hold it then I won’t complain because the Democrats aren’t losing something they didn’t already have. I think the most likely outcome is Chris Smith runs in the 4th and Jon Runyan gets the shaft. Republicans will never agree to this so the independent on the commission needs to like this plan better than what the Republicans draw to protect their incumbents.

4th District (R+12)

Location: Mid Jersey Shore

Incumbent: Chris Smith

Population: -55

Largest city: Lakewood

Demographics: 83% White, 3% Black, 9% Hispanic, 3% Asian

The coastal towns all either remained stagnant or lost population while the population further inland skyrocketed. Lakewood gained 32000 people while Jackson and Freehold also had large population gains. This district is incredibly Republican now but that is only a recent trend. It probably voted for Clinton in 1996, and may have voted for McGreevey in 2001. While Chris Smith’s home is in the 3rd, most of his population is in the 4th, so he will probably run in this district.

Central Jersey

Current districts 12, 6 and 7 are skinny districts that span west-east. However like-minded communities in Central Jersey span north-south, and the new districts reflect that. Suburban Middlesex and Somerset Counties have had a lot of growth (for NJ) in the last decade.

5th District (D+10)

Location: Route 1 corridor, from Lawrence to Edison

Incumbent: Rush Holt

Population: +47

Largest city: Edison

Demographics: 51% White, 10% Black, 14% Hispanic, 23% Asian

Districts 5 and 12 trade numbers. This is an affluent, well-educated, diverse, liberal district. It follows the Route 1 and New Jersey Transit corridor. It relies heavily on commuter rail. In fact commuter rail made the growth in this area possible. It is home to both Princeton and Rutgers Universities. It has a good chance of electing an Asian to Congress. As far as I know there are not currently any Asian American Congressmen from any non-Pacific state. This district is more urban than the current 12th because it adds the New Brunswick/Edison/Piscataway area from Frank Pallone’s 6th.

6th District (D+2)

Location: Eastern border, from Neptune to Linden

Incumbent: Frank Pallone

Population: -244

Largest city: Woodbridge

Demographics: 61% White, 11% Black, 18% Hispanic, 8% Asian

This district is more working-class and less affluent than the new 5th. It follows the Garden State Parkway and the North Coast Line. Its strange shape is because it follows the coast. The most Democratic parts of the old 6th were given to Rush Holt and the most Republican parts of the old 12th were given to Frank Pallone. As a result Frank Pallone has a more Republican district. That’s what happens when you un-gerrymander. The territory from Perth Amboy to Linden, which is strongly Democratic, was also given to Pallone. If Pallone ran for reelection in this district in 2010 then he would have won by less than 1%. If a solidly liberal Congressman wins it in a very Republican year then it is still a Democratic district. However if Monmouth County continues to turn more Republican then this district could become winnable for Republicans.

7th District (R+2)

Location: Northwestern suburbs

Incumbent: Rodney Frelinghuysen

Population: +682

Largest city: Parsippany

Demographics: 69% White, 7% Black, 11% Hispanic, 11% Asian

This district is the conservative-leaning suburbs of North Jersey. It is probably one of the most affluent districts in the country. Although it looks different from the current 11th, Rodney Frelinghuysen already represents 47% of its population. This district could turn Democratic in the next 10 years.

North Jersey

The 4 small urban Congressional districts in metro North Jersey have been reduced to 3 because of population loss. I ended the racial gerrymander that caused Newark, Elizabeth and Jersey City to be split along racial lines. The Payne and Sires districts are still minority-majority so there should be no issues with the VRA. Meanwhile Rothman and Garrett get combined into an all-Bergen County district.



Prepared using Dave’s Redistricting App and Bing Maps

8th District (D+30)

Location: Newark, Elizabeth, and surrounding cities

Incumbent: Donald Payne

Population: +813

Largest city: Newark

Demographics: 20% White, 46% Black, 29% Hispanic, 3% Asian

In addition to Newark and Elizabeth, there are smaller mostly-black cities such as East Orange and Irvington, suburbs with large black populations such as Maplewood and Union, and a few white suburbs needed for population equality.

9th District (D+16)

Location: Hudson County and Meadowlands

Incumbent: Albio Sires

Population: +1458

Largest city: Jersey City

Demographics: 36% White, 10% Black, 39% Hispanic, 13% Asian

Instead of trying to split up Hudson County among its different demographics I decided it was better to embrace it as a diverse multi-ethnic district. The district is also economically diverse. It is home to the Gold Coast and to many new-immigrant neighborhoods.

10th District (D+10)

Location: Northern Essex and Lower Passaic

Incumbent: Bill Pascrell

Population: -1543

Largest city: Paterson

Demographics: 47% White, 13% Black, 33% Hispanic, 6% Asian

This district is, for the first time, a minority-majority district. It consists of northern Essex, lower Passaic, and a few towns in Bergen. I chose towns that border Clifton and Paterson because those cities are the center of the district. The Hispanic population in this district keeps increasing, so it has a good chance of electing a Hispanic Congressman. Both Clifton and West Orange had significant population growth in the last decade.

11th District (D+2)

Location: Bergen County

Incumbent: Steve Rothman and Scott Garrett

Population: +3529

Largest city: Hackensack

Demographics: 61% White, 6% Black, 15% Hispanic, 16% Asian

This is where 2 districts get combined into 1. Bergen County is traditionally swingy at the state level, so it’s a good place to combine an incumbent Democrat and Republican. The new 11th consists of 54% of Steve Rothman’s population and 58% of Scott Garrett’s population. That adds up to more than 100% because new districts are bigger than the old ones. This district is fairly affluent and well-educated. It spans from the Ramapo Mountains to the George Washington Bridge.

12th District (R+11)

Location: Skylands

Incumbent: Leonard Lance

Population: +878

Largest city: Mount Olive

Demographics: 83% White, 2% Black, 9% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Rural northwest NJ is a community of interest and up until now it is split 3 ways to help 3 Republican districts in North Jersey. This region should be its own district. By now even this district is more suburban than rural. It is probably one of the wealthiest districts in America. It is solidly Republican unlike neighboring rural areas in Pennsylvania (Poconos) and New York (Catskills). It does not have much area in common with Leonard Lance’s Congressional District, but it does look a lot like Lance’s old State Senate District.

Final Notes

I have been working on New Jersey for a long time and now that the census data is in, this is my final product. If I get positive feedback for it here than I will send it to the actual New Jersey Redistricting Commission.

I am a Democrat and this is what I consider a fair map. I am not claiming it is bipartisan.

Is it better to keep cities together or is it better to divide them in order to maximize black and Hispanic voting power in their respective districts? I don’t know. The best way to find out is to go to Newark, Jersey City, and Elizabeth and ask the black and Hispanic people what they would prefer. However as soon as you split one city you no longer have an excuse not to have exact population equality, and you will be splitting many cities and townships throughout the state.

This should be my last redistricting diary. I don’t plan to do any other states.

Thank you Dave Bradlee for your amazing app! Compare the map I made using Dave’s App to the map I made on my own.

New Jersey has 40 State Legislative districts. Each district elects 1 Senator and 2 Assemblymen. The State Legislature will be up for election in November 2011, so NJ will need to have its districts ready a year earlier than most other states. Currently the State Senate has 24 Democrats and 16 Republicans. Wikipedia has an excellent map of the State Senate makeup here. (The 14th just turned blue in a special election.) The districts are drawn by a bipartisan commission made of 5 Democrats and 5 Republicans appointed by their respective parties. Some Republicans including Governor Christie claim the current map is an unfair gerrymander favoring the Democrats. I disagree.

New Jersey has 8.7 million people (2007 estimate). Each of the 40 Senate Districts must be within 20% (43,413) of the ideal population (217,067). Municipalities can not be split unless they are more than 1/40 of the entire state’s population. Only 2 cities are that big: Newark and Jersey City. The restriction on splitting municipalities makes the 20% rule necessary.

I didn’t consider incumbents’ residency. I’ll let them figure out which district they want to run in, and if they get drawn out of a winnable district then too bad. I didn’t abuse the 20% rule to favor a political party. I tried to apply population discrepancy as fairly as possible.

The Democratic Gerrymander: 31 Democrats, 9 Republicans



1st District: Cape May Co, most of Cumberland Co. 53% Obama, +2998 people. 70% white

This is the weakest of the Democratic districts. It’s impossible to make a safe Democratic district with all of Cape May Co.

2nd District: eastern Atlantic Co. 59% Obama, -1908 people. 59% white

It got smaller (and more Democratic) due to population growth in the Atlantic City area.

3rd District: Deptfords to Bridgeton 57% Obama, +5596 people. 75% white

It’s a little bit sleeker and more Democratic.

4th District: interior Gloucester, Camden, Salem and Atlantic Co. 58% Obama, +6767 people. 75% white

Anchored by strongly Democratic towns such as Winslow and Monroe. The region between Camden and Atlantic City has grown enough to deserve its own district.

5th District: metro Camden 73% Obama, -3477 people. 51% white, 24% black, 21% Hispanic

6th District: Washington (Glo Co) to Evesham 59% Obama, +15839 people. 79% white

The outer townships are swingy, but the middle (Camden Co) part is strongly Democratic.

7th District: Pennsauken/Cherry Hill area 62% Obama, -254 people. 76% white

8th District: Delanco to Pemberton 67% Obama, -5403 people. 59% white, 27% black

Incumbent Republican Diane Allen lives here. This district should be too Democratic and too different for her to win.

9th District: southern Burlington and Ocean Co 42% Obama, +5336 people. 93% white

The biggest district on this map

10th District: Trenton, Hamilton, northern Burl Co 65% Obama, +2523 people. 54% white, 26% black, 16% Hispanic

Hamilton and Bordentown are Democratic at the presidential level but Republican the local level. Combining them with Trenton should stop them from causing trouble.

11th District: Toms River and western Ocean/Monmouth 42% Obama, +6048 people. 87% white

Almost all of the population is in the eastern part: Toms River and the shore towns.

12th District: Lakewood, Brick, Wall, and everything east 37% Obama, +15120 people. 84% white

Don’t let the small size fool you into thinking it’s urban and therefore liberal. It’s the most Republican district in NJ.

13th District: Tinton Falls and everything east except Rumson 57% Obama, -5642 people. 66% white

The Democrats’ best chance at winning part of Monmouth County. Frank Pallone lives here and you can appreciate why it’s hard to draw him into a Democratic congressional district.

14th District: Rumson/Middletown to Howell 42% Obama, -6983 people. 86% white

Republican Monmouth County in all its teabagging glory.

15th District: Old Bridge to Freehold 49% Obama, -587 people. 74% white

The Democrats’ second best chance at winning part of Monmouth County. I count it as a Republican district but maybe in a wave election it could be the Democrats’ 32nd district.

16th District: Robbinsville to East Brunswick 59% Obama, +23790 people. 66% white, 19% Asian

The current 14th but pushed further north.

17th District: Lawrence to Somerville to Frenchtown 62% Obama, +1033 people. 73% white

A Democratic district anchored in Princeton reaches into Hunterdon and Somerset Counties.

18th District: New Brunswick to Bridgewater 64% Obama, +10382 people. 48% white, 16% black, 13% Asian, 21% Hispanic

19th District: Edison to Middlesex Boro 62% Obama, +14589 people. 50% white, 29% Asian

20th District: Sayreville, South Amboy, Perth Amboy, Woodbridge 60% Obama, -9702 people. 47% white, 13% Asian, 30% Hispanic

Edison and Woodbridge are huge towns that each take up most of a Senate district so that limits where these districts can go. Sayreville and South Amboy are swingy but Woodbridge and especially Perth Amboy make it a strong Democratic district.

21st District: Warren Co and most of Hunterdon Co 42% Obama, +79 people. 87% white

1 of 4 Republican districts in the north

22nd District: southern Morris Co and northern Somerset Co 43% Obama, +5683 people. 82% white

23rd District: Plainfield to Morristown 60% Obama, -827 people. 55% white, 20% black, 19% Hispanic

1 of 2 Democratic districts that reaches into Morris Co.

24th District: Carteret to Summit 60% Obama, -4165 people. 64% white, 16% black, 14% Hispanic

This is Tom Kean Jr’s district and it’s probably too Democratic for him to win it. This map is meant to shut Republicans out of Union County.

25th District: Elizabeth, Roselle Park, Union Twp, Kenilworth 68% Obama, -9436 people. 35% white, 17% black, 43% Hispanic

26th District: West Orange to Parsippany 54% Obama, -24058 people. 71% white, 15% Asian

This is the second weakest of the Democratic districts. I hope the Democrats have the balls to go for it. This underpopulated district is balanced out by the 16th, a similar affluent suburban district that’s overpopulated.

27th District: Fairfield to Nutley 58% Obama, -10336 people. 69% white

Northern Essex county makes a clean compact district. This is the kind of district Republicans would have to win to take the State Senate under this map.

28th District: Hillside to East Orange 92% Obama, -1160 people. 70% black

Sure I could break this up and strengthen nearby suburban Democrats but that wouldn’t be fair to black voters. Even though there isn’t a VRA at the state level.

29th District: Newark except the East Ward 94% Obama, +9081 people. 58% black, 33% Hispanic

The East Ward is the part that’s most different from the rest of Newark.

30th District: Newark’s East Ward, Harrison, Kearny, northwest Jersey City 74% Obama, +7567 people. 37% white, 10% black, 15% Asian, 36% Hispanic

31st District: Bayonne, most of Jersey City, Hoboken 76% Obama, -5099 people. 43% white, 23% black, 11% Asian, 21% Hispanic

The part of New Jersey that’s facing Manhattan.

32nd District: northern Hudson Co 70% Obama, -9167 people. 26% white, 66% Hispanic

This is one of the densest places in America.

33rd District: Passaic to Prospect Park 61% Obama, -21711 people. 48% white, 39% Hispanic

34th District: Paterson to Wayne 68% Obama, +15509 people. 36% white, 19% black, 40% Hispanic

The 2 lower Passaic Co districts balance each other out in population and spread Democratic strength as evenly as possible.

35th District: North Arlington to Edgewater 55% Obama, -10610 people. 61% white, 16% Asian, 20% Hispanic

36th District: Hackensack to Wyckoff 57% Obama, +4722 people. 65% white, 19% Hispanic

37th District: Teaneck to Hillsdale 55% Obama, -6373 people. 63% white, 15% Asian, 13% Hispanic

38th District: Fort Lee to Upper Saddle River 55% Obama, -19114 people. 61% white, 21% Asian, 11% Hispanic

Democratic strength is spread evenly over 4 Bergen County districts. There is an incumbent Republican in one of these districts, Gerry Cardinale, who won’t go down without a fight. Sure it might be smarter to make Bergen Co 3-1, but 4-0 can be done if you accept the risk.

39th District: northern Morris and southeast Sussex 44% Obama, -436 people. 78% white

40th District: Sussex Co, upper Passaic Co, far west Bergen Co 42% Obama, +3767 people. 88% white

The Republican Gerrymander: 21 Republicans, 19 Democrats



1st District: Cape May Co, most of Cumberland Co, southern Atlantic Co. 49% Obama, -9122 people. 77% white

There is only so much you can do with a Cape May-Cumberland based district.

2nd District: Atlantic City to Millville 64% Obama, +15480 people. 49% white, 21% black, 24% Hispanic

A Democratic vote sink in southeast NJ.

3rd District: Salem Co, southern Gloucester Co 51% Obama, -11895 people. 84% white

2 Democratic districts grab Democratic pieces of Gloucester Co and this is what’s left. There are a lot of 51% Obama districts in this map and Republicans will have to hold all of them in order to control the State Senate.

4th District: Glassboro to Winslow to Gloucester Twp 65% Obama, +5349 people. 72% white

A Democratic vote sink in fast growing exurban Camden.

5th District: Paulsboro to Cherry Hill 73% Obama, +1310 people. 79% white

A bowtie-shaped district in suburban Camden taking the Deptfords in the west and Cherry Hill/Voorhees in the east.

6th District: metro Camden, Pennsauken 75% Obama, -1862 people. 46% white, 26% black, 24% Hispanic

7th District: northwest Burlington Co 66% Obama, -13652 people. 65% white, 24% black

A Republican district on borrowed time. Diane Allen’s district with super-Democratic Pennsauken removed and swingy Moorestown added.

8th District: mid Burlington Co 54% Obama, -5473 people, 78% white.

More Republican than the current 8th but it’s also on borrowed time.

9th District: Pinelands 45% Obama, +1626 people. 86% white

Maybe the biggest possible legislative district in NJ.

10th District: Manchester and everything east 42% Obama, +3374 people. 89% white

This is the best, most compact possible Toms River district.

11th District: Brick to Neptune/Asbury Park 47% Obama, +11385 people. 81% white

The Democratic stronghold in eastern Monmouth Co gets broken up.

12th District: Ocean Twp to Middletown 48% Obama, -2331 people. 79% white

13th District: Marlboro to Lakewood 42% Obama, +20025 people. 74% white

Lakewood makes it a very Republican district.

14th District: Bordentown to Jackson 49% Obama, +1427 people. 83% white

Hamilton, Robbinsville and Bordentown get combined with Republican territory in Monmouth and Ocean Co.

15th District: mid Mercer Co 77% Obama, -1260 people. 46% white, 28% black, 16% Hispanic

The most Democratic parts of Mercer Co get packed into 1 district.

16th District: East Windsor to North Brunswick 61% Obama, +18056 people. 63% white, 19% Asian

This is the least Democratic of the Democratic districts on this map. It has some swingy territory such as Monroe and Cranbury but it’s not practical to make another Republican district out of it.

17th District: Sayreville to Holmdel 50% Obama, -6665 people. 73% white

Holmdel is the Republican anchor in this district.

18th District: Franklin to Plainfield 73% Obama, -3410 people. 35% white, 29% black, 15% Asian, 19% Hispanic

It packs in Democrats so the rest of Somerset and western Union can go in Republican districts.

19th District: New Brunswick, Edison, South Plainfield 65% Obama, -5455 people. 45% white, 24% Asian, 19% Hispanic

20th District: Woodbridge, Perth Amboy, Carteret, Rahway 65% Obama, -9392 people. 42% white, 11% black, 12% Asian, 33% Hispanic

21st District: Hopewell to southern Warren Co 47% Obama, -14398 people. 87% white

It’s Republican enough to absorb Hopewell.

22nd District: most of Somerset Co 48% Obama, -4927 people. 74% white

23rd District: western Union Co, eastern Somerset Co, except the Plainfields 50% Obama, -15124 people. 81% white

Tom Kean Jr’s district becomes a little more Republican.

24th District: Linden, Roselle, Elizabeth, Hillside 76% Obama, +555 people. 27% white, 25% black, 43% Hispanic

Union County: the extremely Democratic 24th and barely Republican 23rd cancel each other out. Sounds fair, right?

25th District: western Essex Co, eastern Morris Co 45% Obama, +8071 people. 84% white

26th District: West Orange to Clifton 71% Obama, +24087 people. 54% white, 21% black, 16% Hispanic

This is the only white-majority Democratic district in northern NJ. Packing makes all the other Democratic districts majority-minority.

27th District: Union Twp to East Orange 85% Obama, -2308 people. 26% white, 60% black

28th District: Newark except the East Ward 94% Obama, +9081 people. 58% black, 33% Hispanic

29th District: Newark’s East Ward, Harrison, Kearny, northwest Jersey City 74% Obama, +7567 people. 37% white, 10% black, 15% Asian, 36% Hispanic

30st District: Bayonne, most of Jersey City, Hoboken 76% Obama, -5099 people. 43% white, 23% black, 11% Asian, 21% Hispanic

The Newark-to-Jersey-City districts are the same in both the Democratic and Republican gerrymanders. The region is solidly Democratic so partisan gerrymandering gets done elsewhere.

31st District: Northeast Hudson Co, Edgewater, Cliffside Park 71% Obama, +7678 people. 27% white, 64% Hispanic.

This district reaches into Bergen Co instead of Secaucus to make the Republican Meadowlands district possible.

32nd District: south Bergen Co, Secaucus, Belleville, Nutley 52% Obama, -460 people. 67% white, 12% Asian, 18% Hispanic

A tough district the Republicans have to win in order to take a majority in the State Senate.

33rd District: Passaic to Ridgefield 68% Obama, -7147 people. 38% white, 43% Hispanic

34th District: Paterson, Haledon, Fair Lawn, Elmwood Park 77% Obama, +2697 people. 29% white, 21% black, 46% Hispanic

35th District: Teaneck/Englewood area 64% Obama, +3610 people. 46% white, 12% black, 24% Asian, 17% Hispanic

36th District: northern Bergen Co to Saddle Brook 47% Obama, +3657 people. 78% white

37th District: mid Passaic Co, western Bergen Co 46% Obama, -3884 people. 85% white

38th District: southern Morris Co 47% Obama, -7357 people. 72% white

39th District: northern Morris Co and upper Passaic Co 46% Obama, -4254 people. 80% white

40th District: Sussex Co, most of Warren Co 39% Obama, -9579 people. 88% white

Conclusion

It’s possible to give the Democrats 19 to 31 seats. 25 is the logical compromise. I would suggest incumbent protection (24 Dems) plus the two Burlington County Republicans on borrowed time.

Here is my first attempt at redistricting Pennsylvania. This one will be much better.

Chris Carney, Tim Holden, Jason Altmire, Kathy Dahlkemper, and Mark Critz are all Democratic Congressmen representing districts that Obama lost. I’m going to fix that. This plan creates 14 Congressional districts (out of 18) where the Democrats are favored to win. It preserves communities of interest. It looks much cleaner and less gerrymandered than the current map. And it has a VRA district that’s the most Democratic district in America.

Click for a larger map

1st District Bob Brady (D)

East Philadelphia (yellow)

New 70%O 29%M Old 88%O 12%M

63% White, 11% Black, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It’s a big drop from 88% to 70% but he’s still safe.

2nd District Chaka Fattah (D)

West Philadelphia (dark blue)

New 96%O 4%M Old 90%O 10%M

13% White, 75% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Compare the demographics of districts 1 and 2, and then notice that what separates them is mostly a single straight line. That’s how segregated Philadelphia is. This is the most Democratic district in the country. Since Pennsylvania has enough votes to spare, it should compete for that honor.

3rd District Brian Lentz (D)

Delaware County, southern Chester County (brown)

New 58%O 41%M Old 56%O 43%M

75% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian

It gets all of Delaware County, including the black parts currently in PA-1. This makes it 2 points more Democratic.

4th District Allyson Schwartz (D)

Montgomery County (green)

New 62%O 37%M Old 59%O 41%M

80% White, 9% Black, 3% Hispanic, 6% Asian

Most of Montgomery County is now one solid compact district, and it’s safe Dem.

5th District Patrick Murphy (D)

Bucks County (orange)

New 54%O 45%M Old 54%O 45%M

88% White, 4% Black, 3% Hispanic, 4% Asian

It’s a tiny bit more Democratic than it was before. If you keep all of Bucks County in one district then there’s not much you can do.

6th District Jim Gerlach (R) or Manan Trivedi (D)

West Chester, Coatesville, Reading (peach)

New 55%O 44%M Old 58%O 41%M

81% White, 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

If Jim Gerlach gets reelected this year then this plan won’t work. If he keeps winning 52% of the vote in his district then he’ll win a safe 55% of the vote in a district that’s 3% more Republican. The only way to dislodge him will be to put some lower Montgomery County in this district and then put a lot of Berks County in Allyson Schwartz’s district. It will be ugly and un-communities-of-interest-ish and no one wants that. However if Trivedi wins this year (and I think he will) then he should be able to hold a 55% Obama district that gets more Democratic every year and is centered around his home in Berks County.

7th District Charlie Dent (R)

Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton (pale blue)

New 57%O 42%M Old 56%O 43%M

79% White, 5% Black, 12% Hispanic, 2% Asian

At 57% Obama it will have to go Democratic eventually. This counts towards one of the 14 D’s.

8th District Tim Holden (D) vs Paul Kanjorski (D)

Wilkes-Barre, Pottsville, Stroudsburg (lime green)

New 53%O 45%M Old 57%O 42%M

88% White, 4% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Obama won a 50% plurality in this part of Schuylkill County and he got 56% of Luzerne. It’s not the best at communities of interest. It has a liberal city (Wilkes-Barre), rich liberal rural area (Monroe Co), poor rural barely-Democratic areas (Carbon, Schuylkill, rest of Luzerne Co) and conservative suburbs (Northampton and Lehigh Co). If Kanjorski beats Barletta this year then it’s worth taking our chances on a 53% Obama district, especially with Monroe County which is quickly getting more populous and more Democratic. If Barletta wins then a 14-4 plan goes out the window, and instead Barletta gets a more Republican version of this district, and Carney gets a safe Scranton and Wilkes-Barre district.

9th District Chris Carney (D)

Scranton, State College, Northern Tier (pink)

New 52%O 46%M Old 45%O 54%M

93% White, 2% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Carney gets a 52% Obama district. I’m sure he’ll appreciate that as he drives 300 miles to a townhall in Warren. It has 2 different centers of population, Scranton and State College, but so what, lots of congressional districts have 2 different centers of population (right?). Carney is the second biggest winner from this plan.

10th District Glenn Thompson (R)

Williamsport, Bloomsburg, Lebanon (cyan)

New 41%O 58%M Old 44%O 55%M

93% White, 3% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This is the first of 4 Republican districts. It’s the only one with any chance of going Democratic within the decade. Maybe it’s 10 years behind NY-20 (a comparable rural northern district) and will trend Democratic.

11th District Todd Platts (R)

Lancaster County, York County, Adams County (blue-purple)

New 37%O 62%M Old 43%O 56%M

94% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This district is as Republican as the current PA-19 was 10 years ago. This is the smallest (densest) Republican district. It is trending Democratic, but not fast enough for a Democrat to win it within the next decade.

12th District open

Lancaster, York, Harrisburg (gray)

New 54%O 45%M

76% White, 11% Black, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Obama won each of the 3 county fragments and narrowly lost the Cumberland part. Since we can make a Democratic district out of the 3 mid-state cities and their suburbs, we should.

13th District Bill Shuster (R)

Chambersburg, Bedford, Altoona (turquoise)

New 34%O 64%M Old 35%O 63%M

95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Definitely the most Republican district in the Northeast, maybe one of the 20 most Republican districts in the country. And it no longer reaches west to suck up Democratic votes in Fayette and Indiana counties.

14th District Mark Critz (D)

Washington, Uniontown, Johnstown (red)

New 50%O 49%M Old 49%O 50%M

93% White, 4% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

It’s a thicker, less gerrymandered-looking version of the Critz district. It has the least % Obama of all 14 Democratic districts. Obama only won a 50% plurality, but as you know, this area is more Democratic at the local level than the presidential level. Obama won the Beaver, Washington, Indiana, and Clearfield parts of this district. Out of the 14, I think this is the district that is most likely to go Republican within the next decade.

15th District Mike Doyle (D)

Pittsburgh, Braddock, McKeesport (purple)

New 56%O 44%M Old 70%O 29%M

86% White, 8% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

In order to protect 4 incumbents in Western PA Mike Doyle had to take one for the team. Pittsburgh gets spread between 2 districts. Still, at 56% Obama, and stronger at the local level, it shouldn’t be a problem for Doyle or any Democrat who succeeds him.

16th District Jason Altmire (D)

Pittsburgh, Ross, Lower Burrell (green)

New 55%O 44%M Old 44%O 55%M

80% White, 15% Black, 1% Hispanic, 2% Asian

By losing Butler County and gaining half of Pittsburgh, Altmire is the biggest winner from this redistricting plan. Hopefully Altmire is adaptable, and this district will allow him (or force him) to vote more liberally.

17th District Tim Murphy (R)

Greensburg, Butler, Punxsutawney (yellow)

New 38%O 61%M Old 44%O 55%M

97% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

It doesn’t look like Tim Murphy’s old district, but 23% of it overlaps with his old district. After putting anything remotely Democratic in a Democratic district, this is what you have leftover.

18th District Kathy Dahlkemper (D)

Erie, Hermitage, New Castle (blue)

New 52%O 47%M Old 49%O 49%M

91% White, 5% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This is about the most Democratic possible compact northwestern district. As Mercer, Lawrence and Beaver trend Republican, Erie is trending more Democratic, so that should help the district stay Democratic.

Here is my first attempt at redistricting New Jersey.

Here is a 10-2 NJ plan that is fairly compact, preserves communities of interest, and still has 2 VRA districts. It only splits a small handful of cities, and minimizes splitting counties.

Unlike some other states, NJ has just barely enough minorities in the same place to fill a VRA district(and it gets harder every census), so VRA districts can’t be used to soak up Republican votes.

Note: Obama vs McCain numbers for new districts don’t count votes for other candidats, so they always add up to 100%.

1st District Frank LoBiondo (R) BLUE

Pinelands, Atlantic City area

New 56%O 44%M Old 54%O 45%M

67% White, 15% Black, 13% Hispanic, 3% Asian

In 2008 Frank LoBiondo was reelected with 62% of the vote in a district that gave Obama 54%. Do the math, how Democratic will it have to be to dislodge him. At least now at 56% Obama the district is all but certain to go Democratic after LoBiondo retires (he’s 64). The outermost townships of Camden and Gloucester are more rural than the rest of their counties, but they are just as Democratic. (So I lied, as long as LoBiondo sticks around it’s not 10-2).

2nd District Rob Andrews (D), John Adler (D) GREEN

Camden area

New 63%O 37%M Old 65%O 34%M

70% White, 15% Black, 10% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Rob Andrews and John Adler are my least favorite Democratic Congressmen from NJ, so I don’t mind putting both of them into the same district. It’s 2 points less Democratic, to help out the 1st.

3rd District Rush Holt (D) PURPLE

Mount Laurel, Trenton, Princeton

New 63%O 37%M Old 52%O 47%M

67% White, 18% Black, 9% Hispanic, 5% Asian

Rush Holt is my favorite Democratic Congressman, so I hate doing this to him. His district (the old 12th) is split almost perfectly in 2, so he gets to pick which half he wants. This district follows the Delaware River from Palmyra to Frenchtown. Obama won even the Hunterdon part of this district.

4th District Chris Smith (R) RED

Ocean county, southern Monmouth County

New 41%O 59%M Old 47%O 52%M

87% White, 3% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian

There is no need to split Ocean County because it is so uniformly Republican. Just add some like-minded southern Monmouth. About 2/3 of Smith’s district is already in Monmouth and Ocean, so this isn’t a big change for him. Now the Mercer and Burlington parts of his district can go in a Democratic district where they belong. Bill Clinton probably won it in 1996.

5th District Rush Holt? (D) YELLOW

Brunswicks, Windsors, Franklin, Bridgewater

New 61%O 39%M Old 58%O 41%M

61% White, 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 17% Asian

The well-educated, affluent, heavily-Democratic suburbs of Central NJ. It’s more Democratic because it loses the arms extending into Hunterdon and Monmouth. Rush Holt will probably take this district so John Adler can have the 3rd.

6th District Frank Pallone (D) TURQUOISE

Lake Como to most of Edison

New 55%O 45%M Old 60%O 39%M

63% White, 9% Black, 16% Hispanic, 11% Asian

It loses some Democratic strength because it takes more of Monmouth, but it’s still Democratic enough. This piece of Monmouth has a majority of the county’s population and Obama won it.

7th District Rodney Frehlinghuysen (R) GRAY

Morristown, Plainfield, Linden

New 56%O 44%M Old 7th: 51%O 48%M — Old 11th: 45%O 54%M

63% White, 11% Black, 15% Hispanic, 10% Asian

This district contains all of Union that’s not in a VRA district, and piece of Morris that Obama lost by 300 votes (out of 100,000), and fairly Democratic pieces of Somerset, Middlesex, and Essex. At last, North Plainfield, Plainfiled, and South Plainfield are all in the same district! It has a finger protrude west into Dover and Wharton so those Democratic towns don’t go to waste. Rodney F has not represented most of this territory before, so it will be difficult for him to win it. Linda Stender or Ed Potosnak should win it fairly easily.

8th District Donald Payne (D) INDIGO

Newark, Oranges, Roselle

New 82%O 18%M Old 87%O 13%M

26% White, 51% Black, 16% Hispanic, 5% Asian

The black VRA district. It loses heavily Democratic and white Linden and Rahway, and takes in Republican-leaning Kenilworth and Nutley.

9th District Albio Sires (D)CYAN

Elizabeth, Hoboken, Kearny

New 72%O 28%M Old 75%O 24%M

34% White, 7% Black, 49% Hispanic, 8% Asian

The Hispanic VRA district. It no longer reaches into Middlesex County, that territory is saved for a Democrat who needs it more.

10th District Steve Rothman (D) PINK

Secaucus, most of Bergen

New 58%O 42%M Old 61%O 38%M

60% White, 6% Black, 17% Hispanic, 15% Asian

It extends to the northern border because of slow population growth. This makes it 3 points less Democratic. That’s still Democratic enough.

11th District Bill Pascrell (D) LIME

West Orange, Paterson, Ridgewood

New 56%O 44%M Old 63%O 36%M

57% White, 9% Black, 26% Hispanic, 7% Asian

Just like the 10th, it extends to the northern border and becomes less Democratic. It’s still Paterson-centric.

12th District Scott Garrett (R), Leonard lance (R) SKY BLUE

northwest NJ

New 42%O 58%M Old 5th: 45%O 54%M

86% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian

All of Sussex and Warren. Parts of Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris and Passaic. Any territory in NW NJ that is remotely Democratic has been drawn into a different district.

Republican Gerrymander

1st District Rob Andrews (D) BLUE

Camden and Burlington area

New 69%O 31%M Old 65%O 34%M

63% White, 21% Black, 11% Hispanic, 4% Asian

The existing 1st was designed to pack in as much Democratic territory as possible. I just did a better job. This is the only Dem district that’s more than 50% white.

2nd District Frank LoBiondo (R) GREEN

Pinelands, Bay shore, Vineland/Millville, Cape May

New 53%O 47%M Old 54%O 45%M

75% White, 11% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

It loses Atlantic City and Pleasantville to make it more Republican, and make up for it gaining Gloucester County.

3rd District John Adler? (D) PURPLE

Atlantic City, Toms River, Delran

New 49.7%O 50.3%M Old 52%O 47%M

79% White, 9% Black, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian

This district is dominated by Ocean County, and doesn’t have anywhere for a Democrat to build a base.

4th District Chris Smith (R) RED

Hamilton, Old Bridge, Springfield

New 53%O 47%M Old 47%O 52%M

74% White, 6% Black, 9% Hispanic, 10% Asian

Chris Smith always outperforms his district’s PVI, especially in Hamilton (the southwesternmost town in this district). In 2008 Hamilton gave 55% of its vote to Obama and 68% of its vote to Smith. Hamilton (pop. 86k) should be enough of an anchor for Smith to hold down the rest of this swing district.

5th District Rush Holt (D) SKY BLUE

Trenton, New Brunswick, Plainfield

New 72%O 28%M Old 58%O 41%M

44% White, 21% Black, 15% Hispanic, 18% Asian

Democratic Central NJ gets packed in like never before. It’s minority-majority, which is hard to believe from the part where I live. Pretend this district has the most Democratic possible combination of Edison and Woodbridge, while Chris Smith gets the rest of Edison and Woodbridge.

6th District Frank Pallone (D) TURQUOISE

Monmouth and northern Ocean

New 45%O 55%M Old 60%O 39%M

78% White, 7% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

It’s probably too Republican for Pallone to hold it. And most of it is territory he has not represented before.

7th District Leonard Lance (R) GRAY

Flemington, Somerville, Morristown, West Orange

New 49%O 51%M Old 7th: 51%O 48%M — Old 11th: 45%O 54%M

76% White, 4% Black, 9% Hispanic, 10% Asian

A more Republican version of the current 7th district.

8th District Donald Payne (D) PINK

Newark, Oranges, Roselle

New 84%O 16%M Old 87%O 13%M

23% White, 53% Black, 17% Hispanic, 5% Asian

It only became less Democratic because it lost population and had to expand. It still packs in blacks and white Democrats.

9th District Albio Sires (D)CYAN

Elizabeth, Hoboken, Union City

New 74%O 26%M Old 75%O 24%M

30% White, 8% Black, 53% Hispanic, 8% Asian

Not that different from the existing 13th.

10th District Steve Rothman (D) vs Bill Pascrell (D) INDIGO

Paterson, Hackensack, Englewood

New 69%O 31%M Old 8th: 63%O 36%M — Old 9th: 61%O 38%M

44% White, 21% Black, 15% Hispanic, 18% Asian

The most Democratic parts of the existing 8th and 9th get packed into 1 district.

11th District Rodney Frehlinghuysen (R) LIME

Warren County to Secaucus

New 51%O 49%M Old 45%O 54%M

77% White, 3% Black, 12% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It takes in northern Essex, southern Bergen, and Secaucus and part of Kearny. Morris and Warren should be enough to keep it Republican at the Congressional level. If it’s not Republican enough for you then trade some territory with the 12th, which has some Republican strength to spare.

12th District Scott Garrett (R) YELLOW

Sussex to Alpine

New 46%O 54%M Old 5th: 45%O 54%M

83% White, 2% Black, 7% Hispanic, 8% Asian

Everything along NJ’s northern border.

When Governor Charlie Crist first entered the Florida Senate race he was the definite favorite to win the Senate race. However over the next several months Republicans turned against him because we wasn’t conservative enough. Now conservative challenger Rubio is beating Crist badly in the polls, and it looks impossible for him to win the nomination.

The same thing can happen to McCain. Sure, he’s beating Hayworth in the primary polls right now. But do you really think he will still be ahead on primary election day? I think the chance of Hayworth beating McCain in the primary is 50%.

Now here’s the worst case scenario that we want to avoid: Hayworth beats McCain in the primary and then wins the general because the Dems didn’t put forward a strong candidate.

The strongest Senate candidates are usually sitting Congressmen. Arizona has 5 Democratic Congressmen. I nominate Ed Pastor. The 06-08 Democrats: Giffords, Mitchell and Kilpatrick, need to hold down their marginal House seats, and with bright careers ahead they might not want to take the risk. That leaves Pastor and Grijalva. From what I have read, Pastor is more well-liked and highly-regarded by the public. Also being from Pheonix instead of outstate should help him, in a state where the largest city is more conservative than the other parts. Also, it’s not fair, but Ed Pastor’s name sounds anglo enough to not be threatening to most white voters.

Ed Pastor, is 7 years younger than John McCain. He’s been a Congressman for 20 years. He can beat Hayworth. He just needs to run a few commercials that go something like “J.D. Hayworth is a crazy extremist who supports {insert wacky policy}. I proudly represented Arizona in Congress for 20 years and now if you elect me as your Senator I promise to fight for {something popular in Arizona and somewhat liberal}”. Then we get a reliably liberal vote from Arizona for the next 6 years. (Thanks teabaggers!)

Does he want to take the risk? If you were in this situation would you take the risk? If you take the bet then there’s a 50% chace McCain wins the primary and you are forced to retire at 67, after a 20 year career in the House. Your successor will be a reliable liberal vote. You might even be able to run for one of the new House seats after redistricting in 2012. And there’s a 50% chance Hayworth wins the primary and you become a Senator. Now your liberal vote will be in the Senate, where it’s really needed.

But maybe he doesn’t want to commute to Washington until he’s 73.

He would have to make a decision pretty soon. Allow enough time to see if Hayworth gains momentum in the Republican primary (he already is), but enter early enough to clear the Democratic field. The filing deadline is May 26.

A strong Democrat can beat a teabagger or club-for-growther who beats an incumbent Republican in the primary, even in a right-leaning state or district. Just ask Bill Owens and Frank Kratovil. Think of how sweet it will be if teabaggers make Kendrick Meek a Senator from Florida, and Ed Pastor a Senator from Arizona.

PS. If there is a poll out there that I don’t know about showing JD. Hayworth beating Ed Pastor in a hypothetical matchup, don’t take it seriously, because at this point it would only reflect name recognition. It would be similar to a generic D vs generic R poll, and on Election Day Hayworth will do much worse than a generic R.

Upstate New York has trended Democratic quickly over the past decade. Therefore I’m spreading Democratic support thin over Upstate to make only Democratic districts.

However Long Island has trended Republican at the presidential level since 2000. I’m keeping Peter King’s district Republican in order to keep the other Long Island districts safe Democratic. If Long Island becomes more Democratic then Peter King’s district becomes a tossup when he retires. If Long Island becomes more Republican then at least the Democrats on the Island remain safe.

I did not split a single municipality north of Westchester and Rockland Counties except for Buffalo.

I’m sorry the 11th and the 16th are almost the same color.



Please don’t read anything into the colors assigned to the 13th and 14th districts. Those are the colors that automatically get assigned to those numbers, nothing more.

1st District Tim Bishop (D)

Hamptons, Brookhaven

New 54%O 46%M Old 52%O 48%M

82% White, 5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 3% Asian

I removed Smithtown and added some Hispanic parts of Islip to make it more Democratic.

2nd District Steve Israel (D)

Huntington, Babylon, Islip

New 56%O 44%M Old 56%O 43%M

73% White, 9% Black, 13% Hispanic, 3% Asian

These days the south shore of Suffolk County is less Republican then the north shore, so I removed the north shore and added more south shore. I hope I kept Steve Israel’s home in the district. The most Democratic parts of Huntington are still in the 2nd.

3rd District Peter King (R)

Oyster Bay, Glen Cove, Smithtown

New 48%O 52%M Old 47%O 52%M

88% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian

I tried to find the right balance between making the 3rd possible for a Democrat to win when Peter King retires, while keeping the 1st and 2nd as safe as possible for the Democrats.

4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D)

most of Hempstead, some North Hempstead

New 58%O 42%M Old 58%O 41%M

63% White, 17% Black, 13% Hispanic, 5% Asian

This is the only Long Island district with a sizable minority population, almost enough for a black or Hispanic candidate to have a chance. The northern protrusion is so that the 5th district reaches Gary Ackerman’s home in Mineola. The eastern protrusions are to take either minority or extremely Republican parts out of the 3rd.

5th District Gary Ackerman (D)

Flushing, Floral Park, North Hempstead

New 62%O 37%M Old 63%O 36%M

51% White, 5% Black, 14% Hispanic, 27% Asian

The loss of a district Upstate can already be felt in the 5th district. It has more Queens and less Nassau than before. Pretty soon it will be possible to make an Asian majority district in Queens.

6th District Gregory Meeks (D)

Jamaica, Ozone Park, Far Rockaway

New 86%O 14%M Old 89%O 11%M

17% White, 50.2% Black, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It’s still the black district in southern Queens. It expanded west to take some Republican territory from Anthony Weiner.

7th District Anthony Weiner (D) (Old 9th)

Brighton Beach, Sheepshead Bay, Ridgewood, Forest Hills

New 61%O 38%M Old 55%O 44%M

55% White, 7% Black, 21% Hispanic, 14% Asian

It still has the same 2 far-apart population centers. It loses its Hasidic Jews and gains more of Queens.

8th District Edolphus Towns (D) (Old 10th)

Williamsburg, Bedford Stuyvesant, East New York, Canarsie

New 94%O 6%M Old 91%O 9%M

8% White, 66% Black, 20% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Probably the blackest district in America. Yet it borders another black-majority district and is only block away from another black-majority district.

9th District Yvette Clarke (D) (Old 11th)

Park Slope, Crown Heights, Flatbush

New 91%O 9%M Old 91%O 9%M

27% White, 51% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian

I removed the panhandle from the Towns district so it would be more compact. As a result the Clarke district barely has a black majority. But it’s good enough.

10th District Michael McMahon (D) (Old 13th)

Staten Island, southwest Brooklyn

New 51%O 48%M Old 49%O 51%M

68% White, 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 9% Asian

The border between the 10th and 12th districts is the only ugly political gerrymander in this map. (The 11th is an ugly racial gerrymander.) The Brooklyn part of this district gave Obama 62% of the vote. Also keep in mind that a Staten Island Democrat has at least a 5 point advantage here over a presidential Democrat, so Michael McMahon should be safe.

11th District Nydia Velazquez (D) (Old 12th)

Sunset Park, Lower East Side, Chinatown, Bushwick, South Corona

New 85%O 14%M Old 86%O 13%M

14% White, 7% Black, 54% Hispanic, 22% Asian

The existing 12th is a Hispanic district, and it also seems to be an Asian district, so I added more of both groups, and extended it into north Queens.

12th District Jerrold Nadler (D) (Old 8th)

Upper West Side, west Midtown, Lower West Side, extremely Republican parts of Brooklyn

New 69%O 30%M Old 74%O 26%M

76% White, 3% Black, 9% Hispanic, 9% Asian

The extremely republican Hasidic parts of Brooklyn had to get buried somewhere. I could have buried them in the black districts but I decided it would be better for race relations to give them to a white Jewish Democrat. The Manhattan part of the district is almost completely unchanged.

13th District Carolyn Maloney (D) (Old 14th)

Upper East Side, east Midtown, Long Island City, Greenpoint

New 79%O 20%M Old 78%O 21%M

69% White, 4% Black, 13% Hispanic, 10% Asian

I added Greenpoint (northern point of Brooklyn) because Greenpoint is turning into another rich gentrified neighborhood. Besides that, it’s mostly unchanged.

14th District Charles Rangel (D) (Old 15th)

Harlem, some Upper West Side

New 93%O 6%M Old 93%O 6%M

16% White, 31% Black, 48% Hispanic, 3% Asian

Everything north of 96th street on the east side and 90th(?) street on the west side. And also Rikers Island. I decided it’s more important to make the district geographically compact (Manhattan only) than to add more black population by trading precincts with a Bronx district.

15th District Jose Serrano (D) (Old 16th)

South Bronx

New 95.0%O 4.8%M Old 94.8%O 5.0%M

2% White, 31% Black, 63% Hispanic, 2% Asian

This has the distinction of being the most Democratic district in America. I did my best to keep it that way.

16th District Joseph Crowley (D) (Old 7th)

East Bronx, Astoria

New 84%O 16%M Old 79%O 20%M

24% White, 30% Black, 35% Hispanic, 7% Asian

Renumbered 16th because it’s now a Bronx district not a Queens district (thus forcing me to renumber so many other districts). I hope it still includes Crowley’s home in Woodside, it’s hard to tell.

17th District Eliot Engel (D)

Riverdale, Mount Vernon, Ramapo

New 63%O 37%M Old 72%O 28%M

58% White, 17% Black, 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian

It’s not as Democratic as before because it loses black parts of the Bronx and gains Republican parts of Orange County.  But it’s still safe Democratic.

18th District Nita Lowey (D)

New Rochelle, White Plains, Mount Pleasant

New 61%O 39%M Old 62%O 38%M

71% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian

The Westchester district didn’t change much.

19th District John Hall (D)

Peekskill, Middletown, Newburgh, Ploughkeepsie

New 53%O 46%M Old 51%O 48%M

78% White, 8% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian

It gets pushed further upstate. Fortunately gaining northern Orange County and Ploughkeepsie makes it more Democratic.

20th District Maurice Hinchey (D) Old 22nd

New Paltz, Woodstock, Hudson, Albany suburbs

New 55%O 44%M Old 59%O 39%M

89% White, 4% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This district now includes several Hudson Valley counties instead of a finger into Ithaca.

21st District Paul Tonko (D)

Albany, Troy, Schenectady

New 56%O 42%M Old 58%O 40%M

87% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

It still has Tonko’s home in Montgomery County and it picks up Republican territory in Fulton, Saratoga, and Rensselaer Counties.

22nd District Scott Murphy (D) Old 20th vs Bill Owens (D) Old 23rd

Watertown, Plattsburgh, Saratoga Springs

New 53%O 46%M Old 20th 51%O 48%M, Old 23rd 52%O 47%M

93% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

All of Democratic northern rural New York gets packed into 1 district. It’s only 53% now but expect it to continue trending Democratic into the future. I decapitated Herkimer for aesthetic reasons. Unfortunately Murphy and Owens can’t both be Congressman in 2013 but I’m sure they saw this coming when they ran.

23rd District Michael Arcuri (D) Old 24th

Utica, Ithaca, Binghamton

New 54%O 45%M Old 51%O 48%M

90% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Made safer by adding Ithaca and Binghamton and removing most of Oneida County.

24th District Dan Maffei (D) Old 25th

Syracuse, Rome, Oswego

New 55%O 45%M Old 56%O 43%M

88% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

The Syracuse district buries extremely-Republican northern Oneida County. It shifted east because Western New York lost a lot of population and its districts are expanding.

25th District Eric Massa (D) Old 29th

Webster, Brighton, Corning

New 50%O 49%M Old 48%O 51%M

92% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This November Eric Massa will hopefully get reelected by a significant margin. This plan then makes his district more Democratic, so he will be able to keep getting reelected. The district includes most of Massa’s original district, and the rest is currently represented by Dan Maffei and Michael Arcuri. If this district becomes open then it’s a tossup, so I’m counting on Massa to keep running for reelection.

26th District Louise Slaughter (D) Old 28th

Rochester, Greece, Batavia

New 55%O 44%M Old 69%O 30%M

78% White, 14% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian

No more earmuffs! This district includes the entire city of Rochester, its suburbs to the west, and 4 rural conservative counties. Louise Slaughter’s home isn’t in the district, and drawing her in would weaken the Massa district too much. But it’s still Slaughter’s district.

27th District Chris Lee (R) Old 26th

Buffalo, Amherst, Niagara Falls

New 55%O 43%M Old 46%O 52%M

87% White, 8% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian

There’s a fine line between increasing a city’s influence by putting it in more Congressional districts, and decreasing a city’s influence by spreading it too thin over too many districts. I hope I did the former, not the latter. Chris Lee, an unremarkable Republican, will now have to face reelection in a 55% Obama district.

28th District Brian Higgins (D) Old 27th

Buffalo, Lackawanna, Olean

New 54%O 45%M Old 54%O 44%M

84% White, 10% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Brian Higgins gains some more black parts of Buffalo, and also gains some rural conservative counties. This makes the district as Democratic as it was before, just bigger.

According to census estimates, both Washington and Oregon are on the cusp of gaining another district. Hopefully both states will gain a district because they will be Democratic districts.

My goals are:

– Make the new districts Democratic.

– Make Dave Reichert’s district too Democratic.

– Cross the Cascades only once per state.

– Make the districts look compact and look fair.

The state maps are thumbnails. Click on it to link to a full-size map.

10 District Washington:

District 1: Rick Larsen (D) (blue) (Old 2nd)

Rural-and-small-cities Western Washington

The old 2nd district loses some territory in southwestern Snohomish County, including Everett and Marysville, and gainst territory in eastern King and Pierce Counties. Its population does not change much.

Population Per county:

County	New 1st	Old 2nd
San Juan	96718	96718
Whatcom	196529	196529
Skagit	118000	118000
Snohomish	139664	332734
King	65772	656
Pierce	38591	0

It is probably more Republican than before, but still Democratic enough.

District 2: Jay Inslee (D) (green) (Old 1st)

Cities/Suburbs North of Seattle

The old 2nd district loses its territory west of the Puget Sound and gains more territory in Snohomish County. Now it’s contiguous, and compact, and still safe for Democrats.

District 3: Jim McDermott (D) (purple) (Old 7th)

Seattle

The entire city of Seattle, plus a very small area directly south of the city. Because the suburbs are also very Democratic, there is nothing to gain by splitting the city among several districts. Seattle is 94% of the district’s population.

District 4: Dave Reichert (R) (red) (Old 8th)

Cities/Suburbs East of Seattle

This district is smaller than the old 8th, and more Democratic. Dave Reichert won’t be able to get reelected here.

District 5: Adam Smith (D) (yellow) (Old 9th)

Cities/Suburbs South of Seattle

There must have been a lot of growth here because this district is a lot smaller than the old 9th. It fills the corridor between Seattle and Tacoma without entering either city.

District 6: Norm Dicks (D) (turquoise) (Old 6th)

Cities/Suburbs West of Seattle

The 6th currently takes consists of the entire western peninsula. The new 6th is a compact urban district along the shore of the Puget Sound from Tacoma to Bremerton.

District 7: No Incumbent (gray)

Western Peninsula

This is the new district. It is everything west of the Puget Sound and north of the mouth of the Columbia, except the urban area around Seattle/Tacoma. Its largest city is Olympia. Finally Olympia dominates a congressional district; 37% of the district’s population is in Thurston County. It should be safely Democratic.

District 8: Brian Baird (D) (light purple) (Old 3rd)

Southern Washington

This district is dominated by Vancouver. Clark County is 65% of the district. This is the only district to cross the Cascades. It takes southern Yakima County and eastern Yakima city. Yakima will be the only county in Washington split between a Democratic and Republican district. I don’t have voting data, but here is the demographic data:

Yakima County	8th	9th	Total
Population	132430	102134	234564
%White	29%	78%	51%
%Hispanic	60%	16%	41%
%Native	6%	1%	4%

Southern Yakima is a welcome addition to a Democratic district.

District 9: Doc Hastings (R) (cyan) (Old 4th)

Western Eastern Washington

Strongly Republican.

District 10: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) (magenta) (Old 5th)

Eastern Eastern Washington

Republican enough.

9 District Washington:





The obvious differences between the 9 District map and the 10 district map are: there are only 4 urban Seattle-area districts, and this time one of the eastern districts has an appendage west of the Cascades.

District 1:

Extends further into the (probably Republican) suburbs of King and Pierce Counties. Now they make up nearly a quarter of the district’s population. So the district is still dominated by its northern counties, still safe for its Democratic incumbent, and should be safe for Democrats in the future.

District 2:

Takes more territory in northern King County.

District 3:

Takes more territory south of Seattle. But Seattle is still 85% of the district’s population.

District 4:

Still a more Democratic version of the existing 8th.

District 5:

Now it includes Tacoma.

District 6:

Similar to the existing 6th, but it trades Tacoma for Olympia.

District 7:

The Baird district loses Olympia and eastern Lewis County, and gains Grays Harbor County. This probably makes the district shift more Republican because even though Grays Harbor is Democratic, it has less population than Olympia.

District 8:

In addition to Eastern Washington, it takes 13000 residents in Lewis County. Lewis County is the only western county that voted for McCain.

District 9:

Just like the existing 5th, but a little bigger.

6 District Oregon:

District 1: Earl Blumenaur (D) (blue) (Old 3rd)

Portland

90% of its population is in the city of Portland. I recommend doing this as long as it doesn’t weaken the other districts too much.

District 2: David Wu (D) (green) (Old 1st)

Portland suburbs

A small suburban Portland district is a good idea, as long as it doesn’t pack in too much Democratic voting strength, weakening the other districts.

District 3: No Incumbent (purple)

Western Willamette Valley and Coast

The several small left-leaning counties in northwestern Oregon usually get split up and attached to urban districts. Now I’m putting them together in their own district. Its largest cities are Hillsboro and Corvallis.

District 4: Kurt Schrader (D) (red) (Old 5th)

Eastern Willamette Valley

I would only recommend creating a district like this if its portion of Clackamas County voted at least 52% for Obama. It includes Salem, Albany, and eastern Gresham.

District 5: Peter Defazio (D) (yellow) (Old 4th)

Southern Oregon

This is an interesting shape, mean to avoid the most rural conservative parts of Western Oregon. It starts in Lane County, including Eugene and Springfield, goes through northwest Douglas County, avoiding as much of the county as possible. It takes in all of Coos and Curry Counties. It takes southern Josephine, including Grants Pass, and southwest Jackson, including Medford and Ashland. It should be more Democratic than the existing 4th.

District 6: Greg Walden (R) (turquoise) (Old 2nd)

Eastern Oregon

All of eastern Oregon plus the rural conservative parts of southwestern Oregon.

5 District Oregon:



If Oregon only gets 5 districts, then at least they will be 4 safe Democratic districts. However it doesn’t preserve the “communities of interest” I created in the 2nd and 3rd districts of the 6 district version.

District 1:

Multnomah County and most of Columbia County.

District 2:

Portland’s western suburbs combined with the rural northwestern part of the state.

District 3:

Nearly all of Clackamas, all of Marion, all of Polk, and the northwest corner of Linn (Albany). Safe Democratic.

District 4:

I’m proud of this one. It starts in Lincoln County (60% Obama) and follows the coast. It takes Eugene and Springfield, as well as Grants Pass, Medford and Ashland.

District 5:

Eastern Oregon and a lot of rural conservative territory in Western Oregon.

Conclusion:

No matter what happens in the census, Republicans should get no more than 2 seats in Washington and 1 in Oregon. Putting Seattle in a single district is a good idea, while putting Portland in a single district could be risky. The idea that a Washington 8-2 plan makes stronger Democratic districts than a 7-2 plan is counterintuitive but it seems to be true.

*** Update July 7: Now I have all precinct data, PVI calculations are complete. ***

Pennsylvania is expected to lose a district so it will have 18. My goals are:

– Make districts that look fair, even if they’re not.

– Keep communities together

– Try not to screw over any incumbent Democrats

– Put Democratic territory in Democratic districts

– Anticipate future voting trends

Here is my redistricting plan:



Click on the image for a full size screenshot.

Philadelphia closeup:

1st District (old 1st) D+21

“The Eastern Philadelphia district”

Incumbent: Bob Brady (D)

The first district has been shifted east. It is now 51% white, 21% black, 6% Asian and 20% Hispanic. It gave 73.59% of its vote to Obama, making it D+21. The old 1st is D+35.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Philadelphia (pt)	223428	77797	73.59%	25.62%

2nd District (old 2nd) D+40

“The Western Philadelphia district”

Incumbent: Chaka Fattah (D)

The second district is now 24% white, 67% black, 5% Asian and 3% Hispanic. It gave an incredible 93.03% of its vote to Obama, making it D+40. The old 2nd is D+38. It will be the third most Democratic district in America, behind only NY-15 and NY-16, and tied with Washington DC.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Philadelphia (pt)	341893	24374	93.03%	6.63%

3rd District (old 7th) D+9

“The Delaware County district”

Incumbent: whoever succeeds Joe Sestak in 2010

This district has been made more Democratic. It takes up all of Delaware County, the rest of Philadelphia, and a small amount of Montgomery.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Delaware	178870	115273	60.22%	38.81%
Montgomery (pt)	37275	17659	67.45%	31.95%
Philadelphia (pt)	30659	15050	66.38%	32.58%
Total	246804	147982	61.94%	37.14%

4th District (old 13th) D+6

“The Montgomery district”

Incumbent: Allyson Schwartz (D)

This district is now entirely within Montgomery County.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Montgomery (pt)	215206	147338	58.85%	40.29%

5th District (old 8th) D+1

“The Bucks district”

Incumbent: Patrick Murphy (D)

By removing its territory from Philadelphia and Montgomery and adding territory from Lehigh and Northampton the district becomes a little less Democratic. It stops short of Allentown and Bethlehem but takes Easton from the Dent district. Patrick Murphy should be safe.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Bucks	179031	150248	53.78%	45.13%
Lehigh (pt)	6770	7463	47.02%	51.84%
Northampton (pt)	11346	7145	60.55%	38.13%
Total	197147	164856	53.86%	45.04%

6th District (old 16th) D+1

“The Chester district”

Incumbent: Joe Pitts (R)

The current district takes all of Lancaster County and some of Chester. In this plan it takes all of Chester and some of Lancaster, including the city. Chester is the more Democratic county, so this shift makes it more Democratic. Joe Pitts may be able to win this district but after he retires a Democrat should win it.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Chester	137833	114421	54.19%	44.98%
Lancaster (pt)	38485	35210	51.78%	47.37%
Total	176318	149631	53.64%	45.04%

7th District (old 6th, sort of) R+5

“The Reading district”

Incumbent: whoever succeeds Jim Gerlach in 2010

My ideal scenario: Jim Gerlach runs for higher office and a Democrat from Berks County wins the open 6th district in 2010. This Democrat becomes popular quickly and easily wins the more Republican district in 2012. Over time Berks trends more Democratic and Lancaster trends more moderate.

My less ideal scenario: A Republican wins it in 2010, or Jim Gerlach stays, so we make it more Republican.

It is made of almost all of Berks, most of Lancaster, and a tiny amount of Montgomery.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Berks (pt)	92672	73890	54.89%	43.77%
Lancaster (pt)	61101	91358	39.73%	59.40%
Montgomery (pt)	912	555	61.17%	37.22%
Total	154685	165803	47.72%	51.15%

8th District (old 15th) D+4

“The Allentown district”

Incumbent: Charles Dent (R)

The district loses territory from its southeastern border to the Murphy district, and gains most of Monroe County. This shift makes it more Democratic.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Lehigh (pt)	80319	55919	58.17%	40.50%
Monroe (pt)	30676	23064	56.48%	42.47%
Northampton (pt)	63909	51366	54.71%	43.97%
Total	174904	130349	56.57%	42.16%

9th District (old 19th) R+10

“The York district”

Incumbent: Todd Platts (R)

Because of its fast population growth, the district loses some area. It is still strongly Republican.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Adams (pt)	13783	19866	40.49%	58.36%
Cumberland (pt)	42156	54258	43.23%	55.65%
York	82839	109268	42.65%	56.26%
Total	138778	183392	42.60%	56.30%

10th District (old 17th) R+5

“The Harrisburg district”

Incumbent: Tim Holden (D)

This district is still based in Harrisburg. It loses strongly Republican territory in Perry County and gains strongly Republican territory in Northumberland and Montour Counties. Tim Holden keeps getting reelected despite the Republican lean of the district so he should be able to continue. Northumberland and Montour are currently in the Carney district so they are used to having a Democratic Congressman. It is only 0.18% more Republican than before.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Berks (pt)	4375	6623	39.15%	59.27%
Columbia (pt)	5862	4847	53.62%	44.34%
Dauphin	69975	58238	54.02%	58.86%
Lebanon	23310	34314	39.98%	58.86%
Montour	3364	4574	41.93%	57.01%
Northumberland	14329	19018	42.22%	56.04%
Schuylkill	28300	33767	44.88%	53.55%
Total	149515	161381	47.47%	51.24%

11th District (old 11th) D+3

“The Scranton district”

Incumbent: Paul Kanjorski (D) or his successor

The district now includes all of Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Carbon	13464	12957	50.01%	48.13%
Columbia (pt)	7401	9600	42.67%	55.37%
Lackawanna	67520	39488	62.59%	36.60%
Luzerne	72492	61127	53.63%	45.22%
Monroe (pt)	8777	5229	62.11%	37.00%
Wyoming	5985	6983	45.55%	53.15%
Total	175639	135384	55.83%	43.04%

12th District (old 10th, and most of 5th) R+8

“The northern district”

Incumbent: Chris Carney (D)

The district takes all of the New York border except Erie County, and it extends south into Centre County. In 2008 Carney was reelected by a comfortable margin and this proposed district is 0.12% more Democratic. I expect northern Pennsylvania will eventually become more Democratic, like Upstate New York. Giving them a Democratic Congressman should speed up the trend. One problem is Glenn Thompson, Republican Congressman from the 5th District, lives in Centre County. He should run in the new 14th.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Bradford	10306	15057	39.97%	58.39%
Cameron	879	1323	39.15%	58.93%
Centre	41950	32992	55.37%	43.55%
Clinton	7097	7504	47.98%	50.73%
Elk	7290	6676	51.08%	46.78%
Forest	1038	1366	42.47%	55.89%
Lycoming (pt)	17163	27587	37.91%	60.94%
McKean	6465	9224	40.54%	57.84%
Pike	11493	12518	47.33%	51.55%
Potter	2300	5109	30.64%	68.06%
Sullivan	1233	1841	39.52%	59.01%
Susquehanna	8381	10633	43.46%	55.13%
Tioga	6390	11326	35.53%	62.98%
Warren	8537	9685	46.10%	52.30%
Wayne	9892	12702	43.32%	55.63%
Total	140414	165543	45.29%	53.39%

13th District (old 9th) R+19

“The south-central district”

Incumbent: Bill Shuster (R)

It’s more compact than before, and shifted a little bit east. This is the northern Bible Belt. At R+19 there are only a small handful of districts in America that are more Republican.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Adams (pt)	3850	6483	36.83%	62.02%
Bedford	6059	16124	27.00%	71.84%
Blair	19813	32708	37.31%	61.59%
Cumberland (pt)	6150	9471	38.95%	59.99%
Franklin	21169	41906	33.26%	65.85%
Fulton	1576	4642	24.99%	73.61%
Huntingdon	6621	11745	35.54%	63.04%
Juniata	3068	6484	31.59%	66.77%
Lycoming (pt)	1218	2693	30.72%	67.92%
Mifflin	5375	10929	32.57%	66.23%
Perry	6396	13058	32.39%	66.13%
Snyder	5382	9900	34.77%	63.96%
Somerset (pt)	5323	11473	31.21%	67.27%
Union	7333	9859	42.14%	56.66%
Total	99333	187475	34.23%	64.60%

14th District (parts of the old 5th, 12th and 9th) R+10

“The Johnstown district”

Incumbent: Glenn Thompson (R) [from Centre County]

I’ve been told this area would elect a Democratic Congressman despite its Republican PVI because it’s historically Democratic. I’ll believe it when I see it. This will be the whitest district in PA at 96.1%.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Cambria	32451	31995	49.42%	48.72%
Clearfield	14555	18662	43.05%	55.19%
Fayette (pt)	7274	10319	40.84%	57.94%
Indiana	17065	19727	45.75%	52.88%
Jefferson	3068	6484	31.59%	66.77%
Somerset (pt)	7555	10213	41.71%	56.38%
Westmoreland (pt)	41679	61144	40.07%	58.79%
Total	123647	158544	43.17%	55.35%

15th District (parts of the old 3rd and 4th) R+13

“The Butler district”

Incumbent: Tim Murphy (R)

Tim Murphy (R) lives in the 17th and Jason Altmire (D) lives in the 15th. They should trade districts.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Allegheny (pt)	62879	80564	43.48%	55.71%
Armstrong	11138	18542	37.03%	61.64%
Butler	32260	57074	35.68%	63.12%
Clarion	6756	10737	38.03%	60.44%
Venango	9238	13718	39.64%	58.66%
Westmoreland (pt)	16670	22239	42.44%	56.62%
Total	138941	202874	40.22%	58.72%

16th District (old 14th) D+14

“The Pittsburgh district”

Incumbent: Mike Doyle (D)

The district gets bigger because the Pittsburgh area lost population. I shifted it east so the Altmire district could get some more Democratic towns along the Ohio River.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Allegheny (pt)	225371	107892	66.97%	32.06%

17th District (parts of the old 12th and 18th) R+3

“The southwest district”

Incumbent: Jason Altmire (D) [assuming Murtha retires, or gets indicted]

This southwestern PA district is compact and Obama wins it. Yes it’s possible.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Allegheny (pt)	84521	83501	49.84%	49.23%
Beaver (pt)	14587	12626	52.91%	45.80%
Fayette (pt)	18592	15762	53.50%	45.36%
Greene	7829	7889	49.00%	49.38%
Washington	46122	50752	47.04%	51.76%
Westmoreland (pt)	6285	4989	55.23%	43.84%
Total	177936	175519	49.80%	49.12%

18th District (old 3rd) R+1

“The Erie district”

Incumbent: Kathy Dahlkemper (D)

Now it’s a proper Democratic Northwest PA district.

County	#Obama	#McCain	%Obama	%McCain
Beaver (pt)	25912	30269	45.52%	53.18%
Crawford	16780	20750	44.00%	54.41%
Erie	75775	50351	59.34%	39.43%
Lawrence	19711	21851	46.82%	51.90%
Mercer	26411	26565	49.07%	49.36%
Total	164589	149786	51.65%	47.00%

The consensus is Nevada will have 4 congressional districts after 2010. Here is what it may look like:

Las Vegas area:

#	map	incumbent	White	Hispanic	Black	Asian	Native	Other
1	Blue	no incumbent	29.50%	49.22%	13.74%	5.94%	0.52%	2.08%
2	Green	Shelley Berkley	61.75%	17.47%	8.19%	9.23%	0.59%	2.76%
3	Purple	Dina Titus	67.84%	16.42%	5.40%	6.82%	1.01%	2.51%
4	Red	Dean Heller	70.47%	19.72%	1.89%	3.92%	2.08%	1.91%

A VRA-Hispanic district in Nevada would have been unthinkable 20 years ago but it looks likely in 2010. The fastest-growing demographic in America will almost certainly reach 50% of the 1st district in time for the 2010 census. (hence the title)

The 3rd district, despite its appearance, is mostly an urban-suburban district surrounding Las Vegas. 87% of its population is in Clark County. Most of the existing 3rd district (the propeller, represented by Dina Titus) is in the proposed 3rd district.



The propeller does lose some of its inner parts, possibly its most liberal parts, to the new 2nd district. But by then Dina Titus will have had 4 years to become popular and entrenched, and the Las Vegas region will have had 4 years to become even more liberal. Dina Titus, or whoever represents this district, will have to make some occasional obligatory appearances in the far-flung parts of this district.

Why Chruchill County? Because it had the right number of people. It was the only way to get population equality without dividing any northern counties. Churchill looks like it belongs in the 4th district. In order to do that I could either put part of Elko in the 3rd, or put all of Elko in the 3rd and part of Nye in the 4th.

Any information about what features are in what district (casinos, brothels, Yucca Mountain, Area 51, etc) is welcome in the comments.

The 2010 Census is coming up, and that means new Congressional districts. After the 2000 Census, New Jersey has 13 districts. After the 2010 Census, New Jersey is projected to have 12 districts. It will lose a district because it has not kept up with national population growth.

Here is the current Congressional Districts:



For a better view of the Congressional Districts, see this pdf provided by the state government.

Some observations:

1. 8 of the districts are represented by Democrats. 5 are represented by Republicans.

2. Some of the districts have very odd shapes. It looks ridiculously gerrymandered.

3. Many individual cities and towns are divided between 2 districts. (Jersey City is in 3 districts.) However no city in New Jersey has enough population to fill a congressional district.

4. 5 of the 21 counties have 4 districts in them. 4 more counties have 3 districts in them. However only a few counties (just Essex, Bergen, and Middlesex) have enough population to fill a congressional district.

5. The district numbers don’t make sense. They seem to be numbered at random. It would look better if the 5th and 12th switch numbers.

Some goals for drawing the new districts should include: make the districts as compact as possible, keep municipalities together at all times, keep counties together as much as possible, and number the districts in a way that makes sense.

When New Jersey does its redistricting, they focus on incumbent protection. Since 2000, one one district has changed parties. (We can still change that in 2010.) Only 3 others have even changed representatives! The 2010 plan should make the district that flipped (NJ-03) more solidly Democratic. But this time NJ is losing a district, so not all of the incumbents can be protected. Ask any NJ Democrat which Congressman they would like to see eliminated, and the answer will invariably be Scott Garrett. So my 2010 map turns the 3 Republican districts in Northern NJ into 2 Republican districts.

I used 2007 population estimates provided by the Census to create the new districts. The estimate for New Jersey is 8,686,000 people. That means each district has close to 724,000 people.

Here is what I came up with:



Look at those beautiful compact districts!

Numbers on the right map are population per district per county, in thousands.

Feel free to steal it. If you want a blank template without numbers and county names then email me.

Representative		old#	new#	old PVI	new PVI
Rob Andrews	D	1	2	D+14	D+13
Frank LoBiondo	R	2	1	D+4	D+1
John Adler	D	3	3	D+3	D+6
Chris Smith	R	4	4	R+1	R+4
Scott Garrett	R	5		R+4
Frank Pallone	D	6	6	D+12	D+12
Leonard Lance	R	7	7	R+1	R+9
Bill Pascrell	D	8	12	D+12	D+9
Steve Rothman	D	9	11	D+13	D+8
Donald Payne	D	10	9	D+34	D+32
Rodney Frehlinghuysen	R	11	8	R+6	R+1
Rush Holt	D	12	5	D+8	D+12
Albio Sires	D	13	10	D+23	D+23

Note: PVI’s are based on the 2000 and 2004 Presidential Elections. New PVI’s are guesses, not calculations.

NJ-01:

Current district NJ-02 has a fairly strong Dem PVI, but Republican Congressman Frank LoBiondo manages to keep getting reelected easily. Except for the Atlantic City area, it is mostly rural. Due to slow population growth in the region, it will have to expand after 2010. It will almost certainly expand into Ocean County (conservative), and probably lose ground in Gloucester County (liberal). Therefore this district will become more Republican after 2010. If a Democrat wants to challenge Frank LoBiondo then 2010 is the year. After that it will get harder.

NJ-02:

Current district NJ-01 is centered around Camden and its immediate suburbs. In 2000 it was designed to be the only Dem district in South Jersey, so it packs in all the Dem strongholds around Camden (directly across the border from Philadelphia). The region’s population growth has not kept up with the national average, so the district will expand. It can’t expand into Cherry Hill because John Adler lives there. All of Camden and Gloucester County minus Cherry Hill and Merchantville has the right number of people to fill a district, according to 2007 Census estimates.

NJ-03:

NJ-03 is the only district that flipped parties this decade. It was designed to keep electing Republican Congressman Jim Saxton. In 2008 Saxton retired and Democrat John Adler won it 52-48. The district in its current form has 2 population centers. Cherry Hill and western Burlington County is strongly Democratic. Ocean County is strong Republican. The huge swath of land in between is sparsely populated. The way to make this district safer for Adler is to remove the Ocean County part, and add more Burlington County. In order to get enough people, the proposed district extends into Mercer County to include Hamilton and Trenton.

NJ-04:

In 2008 Chris Smith was elected to his 15th term in Congress. He was first elected to Congress at the age of 27, and he will keep getting reelected for as long as he wants. If we can’t beat him then we should pack more Republican parts into his district. His current district includes parts of Mercer, Burlington, Monmouth and Ocean counties. To make it more Republican, take out the Mercer and Burlington parts (and give them to Adler in NJ-03), and add more Monmouth and Ocean. Monmouth and Ocean counties are trending more Republican. Obama won a smaller percent of the vote in these 2 counties than Gore did in 2000. Chris Smith lives in Hamilton so he will have to move. That won’t be hard because he actually lives in Northern Virginia and he rents an empty apartment in Hamilton.

NJ-05:

This is the Rush Holt district (currently NJ-12 for some reason). The current district is weird-shaped because it reaches into Hunderdon and Monmouth Counties. The proposed district will consist of only Mercer, Middlesex and Somerset. This plan shows the district spanning from Hopewell to Edison, including both Princeton and Rutgers Universities.

NJ-06:

Current NJ-06 is probably the craziest-shaped district in the state. Proposed NJ-06 is much better. It’s still not as compact as the others because it has to follow the coast. The reason for its crazy shape was probably to take in only the very-Democratic parts, so there can be 3 Republican districts in North Jersey. With only 2 Republican districts in North Jersey it is much easier to give NJ-06 intelligible boundaries. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, on the Monmouth shore, so the Monmouth shore will continue to be part of the district, even as the region trends more Republican.

NJ-07:

Current NJ-07 is the other very crazy-shaped district. Most of its population is in the high-density suburbs in Union and Middlesex County. But Congressman Leonard Lance is from rural Hunterdon County. To make this district a better fit for Lance I removed Union and Middlesex and added Sussex, Warren, and “outer” Morris.

NJ-08:

This is now the second Republican district in North Jersey. It is made out of the current districts NJ-07 and NJ-11. Rodney Frehlinghuysen will be the incumbent Congressman and he should be able to get reelected easily. But this may become a swing district when it opens up.

NJ-09:

This is the majority-black district. Using 2000 demographic information, the proposed district is 48% black. 48% is enough to elect a black Congressman because black people are more likely than white people to vote in the Democratic primary. It is centered around Newark and the Oranges. The current NJ-10 is 58% black but I traded some black population for compactness.

NJ-10:

This is the majority-Hispanic district. It consists of Hudson County plus Elizabeth. This just happens to have the right number of people for a district. This proposed district is 43% Hispanic. 43% should be enough to elect a Hispanic Congressman (see above). The current NJ-13 is 48% Hispanic. This proposed configuration is nice and compact. There are other possible centers of Hispanic population (Passaic, Paterson) but it would take some creative gerrymandering to reach them.

NJ-11:

The current NJ-09 is in Hudson and Bergen County. The proposed NJ-11 is entirely within Bergen. Northern Bergen County is currently part of NJ-05, represented by Scott Garrett. Show this map to any Dem in Bergen County and you will be greeted as a liberator.

NJ-12:

Proposed NJ-12 consists of the rest of Bergen County, most of Passaic County, and bits of Essex County. Urban northern NJ is losing population, so Steve Rothman and Bill Pascrell are getting pushed into the suburbs.

Cross-posted on Daily Kos.