Upstate New York has trended Democratic quickly over the past decade. Therefore I’m spreading Democratic support thin over Upstate to make only Democratic districts.
However Long Island has trended Republican at the presidential level since 2000. I’m keeping Peter King’s district Republican in order to keep the other Long Island districts safe Democratic. If Long Island becomes more Democratic then Peter King’s district becomes a tossup when he retires. If Long Island becomes more Republican then at least the Democrats on the Island remain safe.
I did not split a single municipality north of Westchester and Rockland Counties except for Buffalo.
I’m sorry the 11th and the 16th are almost the same color.
Please don’t read anything into the colors assigned to the 13th and 14th districts. Those are the colors that automatically get assigned to those numbers, nothing more.
1st District Tim Bishop (D)
Hamptons, Brookhaven
New 54%O 46%M Old 52%O 48%M
82% White, 5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 3% Asian
I removed Smithtown and added some Hispanic parts of Islip to make it more Democratic.
2nd District Steve Israel (D)
Huntington, Babylon, Islip
New 56%O 44%M Old 56%O 43%M
73% White, 9% Black, 13% Hispanic, 3% Asian
These days the south shore of Suffolk County is less Republican then the north shore, so I removed the north shore and added more south shore. I hope I kept Steve Israel’s home in the district. The most Democratic parts of Huntington are still in the 2nd.
3rd District Peter King (R)
Oyster Bay, Glen Cove, Smithtown
New 48%O 52%M Old 47%O 52%M
88% White, 2% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
I tried to find the right balance between making the 3rd possible for a Democrat to win when Peter King retires, while keeping the 1st and 2nd as safe as possible for the Democrats.
4th District Carolyn McCarthy (D)
most of Hempstead, some North Hempstead
New 58%O 42%M Old 58%O 41%M
63% White, 17% Black, 13% Hispanic, 5% Asian
This is the only Long Island district with a sizable minority population, almost enough for a black or Hispanic candidate to have a chance. The northern protrusion is so that the 5th district reaches Gary Ackerman’s home in Mineola. The eastern protrusions are to take either minority or extremely Republican parts out of the 3rd.
5th District Gary Ackerman (D)
Flushing, Floral Park, North Hempstead
New 62%O 37%M Old 63%O 36%M
51% White, 5% Black, 14% Hispanic, 27% Asian
The loss of a district Upstate can already be felt in the 5th district. It has more Queens and less Nassau than before. Pretty soon it will be possible to make an Asian majority district in Queens.
6th District Gregory Meeks (D)
Jamaica, Ozone Park, Far Rockaway
New 86%O 14%M Old 89%O 11%M
17% White, 50.2% Black, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian
It’s still the black district in southern Queens. It expanded west to take some Republican territory from Anthony Weiner.
7th District Anthony Weiner (D) (Old 9th)
Brighton Beach, Sheepshead Bay, Ridgewood, Forest Hills
New 61%O 38%M Old 55%O 44%M
55% White, 7% Black, 21% Hispanic, 14% Asian
It still has the same 2 far-apart population centers. It loses its Hasidic Jews and gains more of Queens.
8th District Edolphus Towns (D) (Old 10th)
Williamsburg, Bedford Stuyvesant, East New York, Canarsie
New 94%O 6%M Old 91%O 9%M
8% White, 66% Black, 20% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Probably the blackest district in America. Yet it borders another black-majority district and is only block away from another black-majority district.
9th District Yvette Clarke (D) (Old 11th)
Park Slope, Crown Heights, Flatbush
New 91%O 9%M Old 91%O 9%M
27% White, 51% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian
I removed the panhandle from the Towns district so it would be more compact. As a result the Clarke district barely has a black majority. But it’s good enough.
10th District Michael McMahon (D) (Old 13th)
Staten Island, southwest Brooklyn
New 51%O 48%M Old 49%O 51%M
68% White, 9% Black, 12% Hispanic, 9% Asian
The border between the 10th and 12th districts is the only ugly political gerrymander in this map. (The 11th is an ugly racial gerrymander.) The Brooklyn part of this district gave Obama 62% of the vote. Also keep in mind that a Staten Island Democrat has at least a 5 point advantage here over a presidential Democrat, so Michael McMahon should be safe.
11th District Nydia Velazquez (D) (Old 12th)
Sunset Park, Lower East Side, Chinatown, Bushwick, South Corona
New 85%O 14%M Old 86%O 13%M
14% White, 7% Black, 54% Hispanic, 22% Asian
The existing 12th is a Hispanic district, and it also seems to be an Asian district, so I added more of both groups, and extended it into north Queens.
12th District Jerrold Nadler (D) (Old 8th)
Upper West Side, west Midtown, Lower West Side, extremely Republican parts of Brooklyn
New 69%O 30%M Old 74%O 26%M
76% White, 3% Black, 9% Hispanic, 9% Asian
The extremely republican Hasidic parts of Brooklyn had to get buried somewhere. I could have buried them in the black districts but I decided it would be better for race relations to give them to a white Jewish Democrat. The Manhattan part of the district is almost completely unchanged.
13th District Carolyn Maloney (D) (Old 14th)
Upper East Side, east Midtown, Long Island City, Greenpoint
New 79%O 20%M Old 78%O 21%M
69% White, 4% Black, 13% Hispanic, 10% Asian
I added Greenpoint (northern point of Brooklyn) because Greenpoint is turning into another rich gentrified neighborhood. Besides that, it’s mostly unchanged.
14th District Charles Rangel (D) (Old 15th)
Harlem, some Upper West Side
New 93%O 6%M Old 93%O 6%M
16% White, 31% Black, 48% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Everything north of 96th street on the east side and 90th(?) street on the west side. And also Rikers Island. I decided it’s more important to make the district geographically compact (Manhattan only) than to add more black population by trading precincts with a Bronx district.
15th District Jose Serrano (D) (Old 16th)
South Bronx
New 95.0%O 4.8%M Old 94.8%O 5.0%M
2% White, 31% Black, 63% Hispanic, 2% Asian
This has the distinction of being the most Democratic district in America. I did my best to keep it that way.
16th District Joseph Crowley (D) (Old 7th)
East Bronx, Astoria
New 84%O 16%M Old 79%O 20%M
24% White, 30% Black, 35% Hispanic, 7% Asian
Renumbered 16th because it’s now a Bronx district not a Queens district (thus forcing me to renumber so many other districts). I hope it still includes Crowley’s home in Woodside, it’s hard to tell.
17th District Eliot Engel (D)
Riverdale, Mount Vernon, Ramapo
New 63%O 37%M Old 72%O 28%M
58% White, 17% Black, 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian
It’s not as Democratic as before because it loses black parts of the Bronx and gains Republican parts of Orange County. But it’s still safe Democratic.
18th District Nita Lowey (D)
New Rochelle, White Plains, Mount Pleasant
New 61%O 39%M Old 62%O 38%M
71% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic, 5% Asian
The Westchester district didn’t change much.
19th District John Hall (D)
Peekskill, Middletown, Newburgh, Ploughkeepsie
New 53%O 46%M Old 51%O 48%M
78% White, 8% Black, 10% Hispanic, 2% Asian
It gets pushed further upstate. Fortunately gaining northern Orange County and Ploughkeepsie makes it more Democratic.
20th District Maurice Hinchey (D) Old 22nd
New Paltz, Woodstock, Hudson, Albany suburbs
New 55%O 44%M Old 59%O 39%M
89% White, 4% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian
This district now includes several Hudson Valley counties instead of a finger into Ithaca.
21st District Paul Tonko (D)
Albany, Troy, Schenectady
New 56%O 42%M Old 58%O 40%M
87% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
It still has Tonko’s home in Montgomery County and it picks up Republican territory in Fulton, Saratoga, and Rensselaer Counties.
22nd District Scott Murphy (D) Old 20th vs Bill Owens (D) Old 23rd
Watertown, Plattsburgh, Saratoga Springs
New 53%O 46%M Old 20th 51%O 48%M, Old 23rd 52%O 47%M
93% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
All of Democratic northern rural New York gets packed into 1 district. It’s only 53% now but expect it to continue trending Democratic into the future. I decapitated Herkimer for aesthetic reasons. Unfortunately Murphy and Owens can’t both be Congressman in 2013 but I’m sure they saw this coming when they ran.
23rd District Michael Arcuri (D) Old 24th
Utica, Ithaca, Binghamton
New 54%O 45%M Old 51%O 48%M
90% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Made safer by adding Ithaca and Binghamton and removing most of Oneida County.
24th District Dan Maffei (D) Old 25th
Syracuse, Rome, Oswego
New 55%O 45%M Old 56%O 43%M
88% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
The Syracuse district buries extremely-Republican northern Oneida County. It shifted east because Western New York lost a lot of population and its districts are expanding.
25th District Eric Massa (D) Old 29th
Webster, Brighton, Corning
New 50%O 49%M Old 48%O 51%M
92% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
This November Eric Massa will hopefully get reelected by a significant margin. This plan then makes his district more Democratic, so he will be able to keep getting reelected. The district includes most of Massa’s original district, and the rest is currently represented by Dan Maffei and Michael Arcuri. If this district becomes open then it’s a tossup, so I’m counting on Massa to keep running for reelection.
26th District Louise Slaughter (D) Old 28th
Rochester, Greece, Batavia
New 55%O 44%M Old 69%O 30%M
78% White, 14% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian
No more earmuffs! This district includes the entire city of Rochester, its suburbs to the west, and 4 rural conservative counties. Louise Slaughter’s home isn’t in the district, and drawing her in would weaken the Massa district too much. But it’s still Slaughter’s district.
27th District Chris Lee (R) Old 26th
Buffalo, Amherst, Niagara Falls
New 55%O 43%M Old 46%O 52%M
87% White, 8% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian
There’s a fine line between increasing a city’s influence by putting it in more Congressional districts, and decreasing a city’s influence by spreading it too thin over too many districts. I hope I did the former, not the latter. Chris Lee, an unremarkable Republican, will now have to face reelection in a 55% Obama district.
28th District Brian Higgins (D) Old 27th
Buffalo, Lackawanna, Olean
New 54%O 45%M Old 54%O 44%M
84% White, 10% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Brian Higgins gains some more black parts of Buffalo, and also gains some rural conservative counties. This makes the district as Democratic as it was before, just bigger.
It’s pragmatic, ambitious and well-ordered.
I particularly like the decision to keep Peter King. I didn’t do that in my map, because I’m not as confident as you about the trends of Upstate so I kept Lee, and figured I couldn’t win with a 26-2 map so had to eliminate King.
But in principle, Long Island is a lot more worrying that most of Upstate. It’s just that Israel and Bishop are more entrenched than Arcuri and Massa.
I do think Massa could do with a few more points. Giving him part of Rochester or Geneseo could work, except that that’d make Slaughter too vulnerable. It’s a conundrum, but like you I figured that keeping Slaughter’s home in the 28th was too much effort and that she should either move or retire.
I also think that whilst making the 8th so black is noble in principle, there are grounds for shifting territory around to enhance McMahon’s margins. Staten Island Democrats may have an advantage, but it’s best to be safe.
IMO, the best “compactness” map so far.
If Democrats don’t have the cojones to carve up long Island to make it entirely impossible for King to win, your NY-03 is the next best thing. Much better than making a ~54% Obama district that he might win anyway, made by weakening the other LI districts.
This generally favors Dems, but does so without carving up Westchester & Nassau, and without altering the overall map that much. For example, it is one of the few maps that keeps Anthony Weiner’s district as a Queens-Bronx hybrid.