Contest Entry: New York 27-1, 55%+, (Relatively) Compact Redistricting

Hello all. I’m very excited to participate in my first contest here at SSP. Not only that, I’m extremely excited to deal with my home state, New York. For you, I’ve redistricted New York, 27-1. I’ve seen some entries that involve a 28-0 gerrymander, which would be hypothetically nice, but probably unfeasible. To strengthen all incumbents, I’ve given every Democrat a 55% or higher Obama district, which translates to at least a D+2 or D+3 PVI for each one.  Right now, several Democratic incumbents occupy Republican PVI districts (Arcuri, Massa, Murphy, Hall, and Owens). That will change under my plan. However, unlike previous entries, I have to ax one of the districts upstate to make sure that I have a 27-1 gerrymander, and, unfortunately for the new guys, Murphy’s old district is eliminated, forcing him to enter a primary with Bill Owens. I don’t really care who wins that one, though I recognize that Murphy is a very good fundraiser and probably would win. All VRA districts are kept in tact, with Velazquez’s becoming Hispanic majority (instead of plurality).  In the future, I foresee that there will be another Hispanic majority district, mostly based in Crowley’s present district. I also want to see a majority Asian district eventually, though I realize that many Asian communities in New York have different interests.

I know that there is a strategic advantage to sending in your map later so that nobody gets any ideas, but I think it’s in all of our best interests to build the best map as possible. If you haven’t made your map yet, feel free to use some of my ideas. If you have made your map, then post it!

Here’s a summary of what I did:

-Created 27 likely/safe Democratic seats

-Created one über safe Republican district to protect Massa, Arcuri, Owens/Murphy, and, to some extent, Hinchey and Maffei.

-Kept districts relatively compact, with only four New York City/suburban districts (there are only two right now, so not much of a difference)

-Kept all cities in one district if possible

-Obeyed the VRA

-Kept populations within the allocated margins

-Made every Democratic seat relatively easy to represent (no Binghamton to Buffalo drives for Massa)

There are 3,086 people that are unaccounted for. I just couldn’t find the missing precincts; I assume they’re in New York City, though, as the unaccounted voters voted for Obama by something like 90-10. I don’t think it makes much of a difference in the larger picture, though. Also, I’m trying to figure out a way to send it to jeffmd through e-mail, as my first two tries didn’t work.

One last thing: I connect a few New York City districts with bridges-and, in one case, a ferry. I will note that in my write-up. Please enjoy!

Clean Map:

With Counties:

Long Island:

District 1 – BLUE

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

Area: Part of Suffolk County (Islip, Brookhaven, Southampton)

Population: 669,859

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 49% Bush 49%

White: White: 77% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 12% Other: 2%

Notes: Bishop keeps his base in the Hamptons, while receives favorable territory in Brookhaven and Islip. These added points to his previous district-of which Obama only received about 51% of the vote-should keep Bishop safe.

District 2 – DARK GREEN

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

Area: Part of Suffolk County (Huntington)/Part of Nassau County

Population: 700,704

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%

White: 75% Black: 9% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 10% Other: 2%

Notes: The newly minted Long Island district takes in much of Israel’s and Bishop’s old district in Eastern Suffolk. The district splits Huntington, which is Israel’s base, so Israel can elect to run in either the 2nd or the 3rd district.

District 3 – PURPLE

Incumbent:

Area: Part of Nassau County (Glen Cove)/Part of Suffolk County (Huntington)/Part of Bronx County (The Bronx)

Population: 700,178

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama 47% McCain 52%; Kerry 47% Bush 52%

White: 73% Black: 13% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 9% Other: 1%

Notes: This is where King is screwed. His base in Southern Nassau is split into three districts, the 3rd, the 4th, and the 5th. I had to add part of the Bronx to strengthen the district (and for population purposes). King would have to sweep the Nassau portions to win, and I don’t think he could. Granted, this district is less Democratic than the 4th and the 5th, but I think the Democratic lean ultimately propels a Democrat to victory. Israel could also run in the neighboring 2nd, as Huntington is split between the two districts.

As for the Bronx connection, the representative can take the Throgs Neck Bridge from Queens. Though the bridge doesn’t connect the Long Island parts to the Bronx part, it will make representing both sections very manageable.

District 4 – RED

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)/Peter King (R)

Area: Part of Nassau County (Long Beach)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,877

Obama: 57%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 58% McCain 41%; Kerry 55% Bush 41%

White: White: 64% Black: 15% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 10% Other: 3%

Notes: This district takes in most of King’s base, (and his home), but tethers it to Queens to make this district pretty safe for McCarthy. Also of note, I had to add some black-majority precincts to make McCarthy safe, so Meeks has to go Brooklyn to make sure his district is VRA. Also, here is a short arm in the middle of Nassau County to take McCarthy’s home in Mineola.

District 5 – YELLOW

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

Area: Part of Nassau County/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,542

Obama: 58%

McCain: 42%

Old District: Obama 63% McCain 36%; Obama 63% McCain 36%

White: 61% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 18% Hispanic: 12% Other: 2%

Notes: Takes in Nassau, Queens along with parts of King’s base. He should continue to do fine here.

District 6 – DARK GREENISH BLUE

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

Area: Queens County (Queens)/Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 699,692

Obama: 87%

McCain: 13%

Old District: Obama 89% McCain 11%; Kerry 84% Bush 15%

White: 17% Black: 50% Native: 0% Asian: 9% Hispanic: 17% Other: 7%

Notes: Remains a VRA-protected district in Queens, but to help McCarthy, it is water-continuous to take in black-majority precincts in Brooklyn. Takes in some icky old Weiner precincts. Meeks can travel the Shore Parkway to go Brooklyn to his other constituents. Also has the most “Other” raced-people in the state (45,528). I have no idea what that means.

District 7 – GRAY

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,514

Obama: 80%

McCain: 20%

Old District: Obama 79% McCain 20%: Kerry 74% Bush 24%

White: 29% Black: 19% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 40% Other: 4%

Notes: I didn’t change much, but now the district is even more Hispanic. Crowley would win here, and I doubt he would get a primary. However, a Hispanic Bronx Democrat should win here after he retires. He can travel on Route 678.

District 8 – DARK PURPLE

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 700,149

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District: Obama 74% McCain 25%: Kerry 72% Bush 27%

White: 59% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 17% Hispanic: 14% Other: 3%

Notes: Nadler loses downtown, but retains his base on the Upper West Side. He also takes in heavily Republican areas of Brooklyn, but that area is superfluous as his Manhattan parts are ridiculously Democratic. I also gave him Chinatown.

District 9 – LIGHT TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 699,891

Obama: 61%

McCain: 38%

Old District: Obama 55% McCain 44%; Kerry 56% Bush 44%

White: 50% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 16% Hispanic: 22% Other: 5%

Notes: I had to shore up this district, even though Weiner would be fine otherwise. It’s just that Weiner will probably run for another office some day (especially mayor), so I wanted to make sure that a moderate (probably Jewish) Republican couldn’t win here. It’s pretty gerrymandered to be a slightly majority white district. Anyway, his base is here and Weiner should win by a large margin.

District 10 – DARK PINK

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 699,919

Obama: 85%

McCain: 15%

Old District: Obama 91% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%

White: 22% Black: 52% Native: 0% Asian: 5% Hispanic: 18% Other: 23%

Notes: Pretty much the same Brooklyn-based VRA-protected district, but it takes in icky some icky Brooklyn precincts to help Weiner.

District 11 – GREEN

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 700,196

Obama: 84%

McCain: 16%

Old District: Obama 90% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%

White: 25% Black: 54% Native: 0% Asian: 7% Hispanic: 11% Other: 4%

Notes: Same deal as District 10.

District 12 – MEDIUM BLUE

Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,735

Obama: 86%

McCain: 13%

Old District: Obama 86% McCain 13%; Kerry 80% Bush 19%

White: 23% Black: 11% Native: 0% Asian: 11% Hispanic: 51% Other: 3%

Notes: A VRA-protected Hispanic district, Velazquez sheds Manhattan and takes in the Hispanic parts of Brooklyn and Queens. The district gets a somewhat big makeover to make it Hispanic-majority, but I’m sure there will be no complaints for anyone.

District 13 – TEAL

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

Area: All of Richmond County (Staten Island)/Part of New York County (Manhattan)

Population: 700,676

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District: Obama 49% McCain 51%; Kerry 45% Bush 55%

White: White: 71% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%

Notes: My Staten Island-based district is now tethered to downtown Manhattan to make the district a safe Democratic district.

District 14 DARK GREEN

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 699,854

Obama: 80%

McCain: 19%

Old District: Obama 78% McCain 21%; Kerry 74% Bush 25%

White: 64% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 18% Other: 3%

Notes: My hometown district, Maloney gains parts of Brooklyn to enable Velazquez to have a Hispanic-majority district. Goes all the way up to the limits of the Upper East Side on 96th Street.

District 15 – ORANGE

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,198

Obama: 91%

McCain: 8%

Old District: Obama 93% McCain 6%; Kerry 90% Bush 9%

White: 17% Black: 27% Native: 0% Asian: 6% Hispanic: 47% Other: 3%

Notes: Rangel’s district is plurality Hispanic (and almost majority Hispanic). I would bet he wouldn’t like this district, as he could be primaried by an ambitious Hispanic legislator who would target him on ethics issues. Otherwise, it loses all parts of the Upper West Side, which never really made sense for him.

District 16 – LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)

Population: 700,500

Obama: 95%

McCain: 5%

Old District: Obama 95% McCain 5%; Kerry 89% Bush 10%

White: 3% Black: 33% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 60% Other: 2%

Notes: The VRA-protected South Bronx district makes no substantive changes. This district would undoubtedly have the fewest white people in the country.

Suburbs:

District 17 – DARK BLUE

Incumbent:  Eliot Engel (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Westchester County (Yonkers)/Part of Rockland County/Part of Orange County

Population: 700,056

Obama: 60%

McCain: 40%

Old District: Obama 72% McCain 28%; Kerry 67% Bush 33%

White: 61% Black: 17% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 16% Other: 3%

Notes: A kind of similar district to Engel’s current, the district takes in Mount Vernon, parts of Rockland, parts of Orange, and all of Yonkers. His home in the Bronx remains for a solid (but less diverse) Democratic district.

District 18 – LIGHT YELLOW

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Westchester County (Rye, New Rochelle, Part of Peekskill)/Part of Putnam County/Part of Orange County/Part of Sullivan County/Part of Delaware County

Population: 699,983

Obama: 58%

McCain: 41%

Old District: Obama 62% McCain 38%; Kerry 58% Bush 42%

White: 76% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%

Notes: This district is pretty ugly, but it’s necessary to shore up Hall and Hinchey. It has the preexisting Westchester flavor, but it moves upstate to take in nasty Republican-leaning areas. It’s so ugly that Orange County is represented by four congresscritters. Anyway, Lowey should do well here, as her home base in Rye stays.

District 19 – WESTERN NEW YORK GREEN

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

Area: Part of Chemung County (Elmira)/All of Steuben County/All of Allegany County/All of Cattaraugus County/All of Chautauqua County/Part of Erie County (Buffalo)

Population: 700,415

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

Old District: Obama 48% McCain 50%; Kerry 42% Bush 56% (former 29th)

White: 84% Black: 11% Native: 1% Asian: 1% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: This is by far my favorite district that I drew. Massa takes in three of the heavily Republican Southern Tier counties (Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Steuben), while taking in moderate Chautauqua. It is also tethered to Buffalo, though, which shifts the district up in the Obama column tremendously. On the eastern side, the Democratic-leaning Elmira is taken in. This district should be safe for Massa.

District 20 – BEIGE

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

Area: Part of Otsego County/Part of Montgomery County/Part of Schenectady County (Schenectady)/Part of Schoharie County/Part of Delaware County/All of Greene County/All of Ulster County/Part of Sullivan County/Part of Rockland County/Part of Dutchess County (Poughkeepsie)/Part of Shanango County

Population: 699,767

Obama: 56%

McCain: 42%

Old District: Obama 59% McCain 39%; Kerry 54% Bush 45% (Current 22nd)

White: 81% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 7% Other: 2%

Notes: Shoring up Hinchey while losing Ithaca and Binghamton was a struggle, yet I think I did well. The district takes in the strongly-Dem precincts in Rockland County, going up through Sullivan, taking up some of the rest of the Capital Region, including Democratic Schenectady City. His base in Ulster is still there, though, and should propel Hinchey or whatever succeeding Democrat to win.

District 21 – DARK RED

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

Area: Part of Westchester County (White Plains, Part of Peekskill)/Part of Putnam County/Part of Orange County (Newburgh)/Part of Dutchess County/All of Columbia County

Population: 700,291

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 45% Bush 54% (Current 19th)

White: 78% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 10% Other: 2%

Notes: Hall’s district gets quite the makeover, but now is solidly his. He moves upstate a little, but Dover Plains is still here. He takes in heavily Democratic White Plains in Westchester.

District 22 – BROWN

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

Area: Part of Fulton County/Part of Schenectady County All of Albany County (Albany)Part of Rensselaer County/Part of Saratoga County/Part of Schoharie County

Population: 700,675

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 58% McCain 40%; Kerry 55% Bush 43% (Current 21st)

White: 90% Black: 5% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: The Albany-based district is not as strongly Democratic as it once was, but it remains safe territory for Tonko. Schenectady is lost, as is Troy.

District 23 – UPSTATE LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)/Scott Murphy (D)

Area: Part of Saratoga County (Saratoga Springs)/All of Washington County/All of Essex County/All of Warren County/All of Clinton County/All of Franklin County/All of St. Lawrence County/All of Jefferson County/Part of Lewis County/Part of Oswego County/Part of Oneida County/Part of Renssalaer County (Troy)

Population: 700,814

Obama: 55%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 52% McCain 47%; Kerry 47% Bush 51%

White: 92% Black: 3% Native: 0% Asian: 1% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: I’m tired of Blue Dogs, so I really don’t care what happens to Murphy in this district. I had to axe on upstate district, so I chose Murphy’s and drew him into this one. Here, which now has a D PVI, takes in a lot of old McHugh-territory, while shedding Lewis and Hamilton counties. Also, Saratoga Springs and Troy are added, helping boost the district by a few percentage points. The district should be fine for whoever makes it out of the primary.

District 24 – SYRACUSE PURPLE

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

Area: Part of Monroe County/All of Wayne County/Part of Ontario County/Part of Cayuga County/Part of Onondaga County (Syracuse)/Part of Oswego County/Part of Oneida County

Population: 700,260

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 50% Bush 48% (Current 25th)

White: 87% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 2%

Notes: Maffei’s district remains the same in principle with its Syracuse base.

District 25 – ROCHESTER PINK

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

Area: Part of Monroe County (Rochester)/Part of Livingston County (Geneseo)/Part of Ontario County/Part of Yates County

Population: 700,187

Obama: 59%

McCain: 40%

Old District: Obama 68% McCain 30%; Kerry 63% Bush 36% (Current 28th)

White: 78% Black: 13% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 5% Other: 2%

Notes: A Monroe-centric district, Slaughter also absorbs Geneseo in Livingston, most of Ontario County, and the Obama-won precincts in Yates. Her district sheds a lot of Democratic votes (all in Buffalo), but she-or any other Rochester Democrat-would do well here. A bonus: no more earmuffs district.

District 26 – UPSTATE GRAY

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

Area: Part of Niagara County/Part of Erie County/All of Orleans County/All of Wyoming County/All of Genesee County/Part of Livingston County/Part of Ontario County/Part of Yates County/Part of Schuyler County/Part of Chemung County/All of Tioga County/Part of Broome County/Part of Chenango County/Part of Otsego County/Part of Oneida County/All of Herkimer County/All of Hamilton County/Part of Fulton County/Part of Montgomery County

Population: 700,225

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District: Obama 46% McCain 52%; Kerry 43% Bush 55%

White: 95% Black: 2% Native: 0% Asian: 0% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: Clearly drawn to take every upstate Republican precinct, this district is beyond safe for Lee. I believe that Obama lost every single precinct in this county, except for two in lower Broome! The district is reminiscent of jeffmd’s earlier redistricting, but I do think that this is the way to shore up Democrats all across the state. Dems could hypothetically run a Blue Dog here, but that’s probably a waste of money, as the overall partisan bent strongly favors Republicans and the district is in the Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Capital Region media markets.

District 27 – BUFFALO LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

Area: Part of Erie County (Buffalo, Lackawanna)/Part of Niagara County (North Tonawanda, Lockport, Niagara Falls)

Population: 700,130

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 54% McCain 44%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%

White: 85% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 4% Other: 1%

Notes: This Buffalo-based district does not change much partisan-wise, but it shifts up to take Niagara Falls.

District 28 – MID-STATE PINK

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D)

Area: Part of Oneida County (Rome, Utica)/All of Madison County (Oneida)/Part of Onondaga County/Part of Cayuga County (Auburn)/All of Seneca County/All of Tompkins County (Ithaca)/All of Cortland County/Part of Broome County (Binghamton)/Part of Schuyler County/Part of Lewis County

Population: 699,838

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

Old District: Obama 50% McCain 48%; Kerry 47% Bush 53% (Current 24th)

White: 90% Black: 4% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: Arcuri sheds a lot of the Republican precincts in Oneida, while retains his base in Utica. Further, he loses Herkimer and Chenango, while taking in Ithaca and Binghamton. The distict also takes in Auburn and the southern suburbs of Syracuse. The PVI is now in the D territory, and Arcuri should be fine from now on-though, he might consider leaving the Blue Dogs as votes in Tompkins might want a primary.