The consensus is Nevada will have 4 congressional districts after 2010. Here is what it may look like:
Las Vegas area:
| # | map | incumbent | White | Hispanic | Black | Asian | Native | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blue | no incumbent | 29.50% | 49.22% | 13.74% | 5.94% | 0.52% | 2.08% |
| 2 | Green | Shelley Berkley | 61.75% | 17.47% | 8.19% | 9.23% | 0.59% | 2.76% |
| 3 | Purple | Dina Titus | 67.84% | 16.42% | 5.40% | 6.82% | 1.01% | 2.51% |
| 4 | Red | Dean Heller | 70.47% | 19.72% | 1.89% | 3.92% | 2.08% | 1.91% |
A VRA-Hispanic district in Nevada would have been unthinkable 20 years ago but it looks likely in 2010. The fastest-growing demographic in America will almost certainly reach 50% of the 1st district in time for the 2010 census. (hence the title)
The 3rd district, despite its appearance, is mostly an urban-suburban district surrounding Las Vegas. 87% of its population is in Clark County. Most of the existing 3rd district (the propeller, represented by Dina Titus) is in the proposed 3rd district.
The propeller does lose some of its inner parts, possibly its most liberal parts, to the new 2nd district. But by then Dina Titus will have had 4 years to become popular and entrenched, and the Las Vegas region will have had 4 years to become even more liberal. Dina Titus, or whoever represents this district, will have to make some occasional obligatory appearances in the far-flung parts of this district.
Why Chruchill County? Because it had the right number of people. It was the only way to get population equality without dividing any northern counties. Churchill looks like it belongs in the 4th district. In order to do that I could either put part of Elko in the 3rd, or put all of Elko in the 3rd and part of Nye in the 4th.
Any information about what features are in what district (casinos, brothels, Yucca Mountain, Area 51, etc) is welcome in the comments.
Titus might be more entrenched, but I’d rather it lose its eastern cow counties and Churchill and, instead, head up to grab Washoe County, which would save the residents of Reno from their eastern rural brethren. Does the population work? I might try this myself.
I agree that there’s a good argument for a Hispanic-majority (or plurality) district in Nevada, but I’d rather make that Shelly Berkley’s district. I highly doubt that she’ll be around by 2020, and her successor should be Hispanic if it’s done right.
This district is a little more precarious than I’d like to see for Dina Titus, but she might be able to hold on.
My person choice would be making a new 4th district that includes almost all of Carson City, the Cow Counties, and the more conservative suburbs of Las Vegas like Summerlin and the exburban parts of Henderson. Then, have a new 2nd district stretch from Dem-leaning Reno, dodging Carson City, down to Pahrump, and into inner-city Las Vegas to ensure that it leans Democratic. The question would be where Dean Heller chooses to run. The new 4th would significantly more conservative, but since it would be dominated by Las Vegas exburbs (whereas the new 2nd would have a much greater share of its population upstate), he may choose geography over ideology, which runs the chance of screwing us over badly.
But in any event, good work getting a basically Hispanic-majority district.
I mean, obviously we don’t want to weaken her too much, but I’m worried about Titus.
He won Berkley’s district by 30 points, Titus’ by 12, and almost tied McCain in Heller’s. It can’t be that hard to give us four districts he won, no? I’m picturing a Las Vegas suburb district that goes up the right side of the state grabbing the big GOP areas, a Reno-based one that goes down the left side and is more hospitable to a Democrat, and then two other safe Las Vegas/Henderson districts for us.
Biting off too much? Possibly. If that’s the case, then we might as well just run Titus’ district up to Reno and let Heller’s district go south towards some conservative exurbs to maintain his district’s population. Three safe districts for us, one super-GOP district for them.
and I lost the 7 maps I’d done using Dave’s Redistricting app and had been leaving open in different tabs and to this day no one here has been able to explain to me the complex and convoluted way he chose to let you save your maps; instead of the sensible thing which is to save them onto your computer and his instructions are completely incomprehensible to me as I’m not software savvy, and it wouldn’t let me take a screen shot of them either, and I had strong maps done for Missouri, Iowa, Michigan, Texas, Oregon, and Minnesota, as well as start ups on Arizona and Florida.
They’re probably still saved somewhere if someone could explain to me, step by step, how the hell I’m supposed to access them and get them on my computer. I had a really good political breakdown on the reasoning and political geographies of all the districts that I had drawn.
So I can download this program and play around with it!
put the majority-African American tracts in Berkley’s district and do some swapping to get close to 50% in the VRA district.
My map for the 4th came out as
47.5% Hispanic, 32.3% White, 11.4% African-American, 6% Asian
And my 1st came out this way, Demos-wise
55.5% White, 21.6% Hispanic, 11.6% African-American, 7.8% Asian
Here’s a map of my Clark county split
As for my second and third..
My 3rd has Nye, Esmeralda, and Mineral Counties, with parts of Lyon and Churchill Counties.
are in the 1st, in the south-central part of the district; McCarran Airport is the awkwardly shaped pentagon with a knob in the 2nd.
Both Area 51 and Yucca Mountain are in the 3rd, Area 51 is in Lincoln County and Yucca Mountain in Nye County.
I can’t speak to brothels, but they are legal in a few of the counties (not Clark, Washoe, or Carson City though).
I think the Vegas suburbs plus Reno district is a possibility that could be considered, and I really like Nico’s drawing of it. I’d be interested in knowing whether people in Reno would want that. Would the Democratic voters in Reno rather have a Democratic district they share with Las Vegas, or a Republican district they share with most of the rest of upstate?
I would be willing to alter my boundary between 2 and 3 to distribute Democratic voter strength more evenly between the two districts, as along as it still looks fair.
It really is a shame Democrats can’t have a secure 3-1 map even though Nevada has become a solidly Democratic state.
Here are some ideas I came up with:
Idea #1: The DNC tells Berkley and Titus that whoever has the more liberal voting record in the next 4 years gets to run in 2 while the other has to run in 3.
Idea #2: Set a threshold (perhaps 60%). If Dina Titus gets that much of the vote in 2010 then she will be considered safe to run in 3 in 2012. If not then she runs in 2 and Berkley runs in 1.
Idea #3: Some point in the spring of 2012 decide whether it will be a Democratic or Republican year. If it’s a Democratic year then Berkley and Titus will run in 2 and 3, if it’s a Republican year then they run in 1 and 2.