I thought even before the primary that a Deeds win would get us a nice post-primary bump in general election trial heat polling, and that bump is happening a little faster than I imagined! More below the jump.
Rasmussen has Deeds up 47-41 on the strength of Democratic unity. McDonnell has the edge among independents, but only with a 43-36 plurality as but 16% of them are undecided. Only 4% of Dems are undecided with Deeds picking up 89%, and Repugs have 11% undecided with 9% going to Deeds.
Another key demographic is that Deeds trails 49-36 among white voters with 12% undecided and 3% saying they’ll vote for “some other candidate,” although almost all of that 3% will end up choosing between the 2 so that the true undecided whites are 15%. In Virginia about 40% of the white vote means a Democratic victory in a Governor’s race, so Deeds sitting at 36% with another 15% still persuadable puts him in a great position for victory.
Yes, yes, it’s early, and anything can happen, so this poll isn’t to be relied on too strongly……I’m a campaigns junkie and I know all that.
But the fact is this poll does mean something, that this race is winnable, and McDonnell no longer can be called “the frontrunner” as he was legitimately called in the pre-primary stretch.
It’s a toss-up at worst for us.
I voted for Deeds in the primary thinking he was the only one of the 3 who could beat McDonnell, and today that seems more true than ever.
Creigh’s top responsibilities for the next few weeks need to be fundraising and outreach to minority voters, especially blacks but also Hispanics and Asians. I hope he raises the cash he needs this time, as he failed to do 4 years ago vs. McDonnell in the A.G. race.
Those numbers will come down over the next couple of weeks as McDonnell attacks and Deeds scrambles to raise money. But a post-primary bounce like this is exactly what we needed to get people moving.
are priorities 1 and 2 right now. but immediately, this surprise victory gives deeds an opportunity to introduce himself via free media all over the state.
maybe a stop in alexandria, hampton roads, richmond and then finsihing up in his rural hometown or something, with governor kaine and senator warner reinforcing his message that this will be a continuation of thoughtful, competent leadership for VA.