File this under: “crazy gerrymanders that have no chance of happening”. Here are two majority-minority districts drawn in my home region of northern virginia:
True to the original spirit of gerrmandering my new districts look kind of like a pink dragon (the 10th) breathing green fire (the 11th) down along the I-95.
Demographics:
VA-10:
49% White, 9% Black, 0% Amer-Indian, 17% Asian, 22% Hispanic, 2% other
VA-11:
49% White, 21% Black, 0% Amer-Indian, 9% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 2% other
I suppose you could say that these districts are not “truly” majority minority, because they are white plurality and probably have a white-majority electorate due to lower nonwhite turnout. Those are both valid and logical points, but this is not supposed to be a valid and logical map so who cares. And the white-plurality thing is probably bound to happen no matter what, as many of the minority-heavy areas of NoVA are a giant mix of black, asian, and hispanic populations. There are a lot of precincts there, especially along the Columbia Pike corridor, that are almost split 25/25/25/25 white/black/hispanic/asian, give or take about 10% for each race, and some precincts down in Woodbridge/Dale City that are close to 33/33/33 white/black/hispanic.
The one problem with this map is that both districts are about 40,000 under population target. That is admittedly pushing it in terms of pop deviation, but it seems to be just barely tolerable. Any higher and the districts go above 50% white. If we were at a point where legislatures are going to these extents to gerrymander districts, I doubt anyone would be that worried about a 40,000 person deviation.
I propose that Obama pick up FDR’s old idea of packing the Supreme Court, appoint a bunch of hardcore liberals to the bench, then have Eric Holder sue Bob McDonnell to force him to draw districts like this, creating five majority-minority districts in Virginia. After that he can move on to suing Jerry Brown to get 40 majority minority districts out of California.
This is a bit out of tolerance here — a federal Court in PA struck down the map for being 50 people off without a good reason.
Interesting whether you can draw one majority minority district here though. The VRA might require that, and the Republicans would probably acquiesce in that.
and Moran’s district was 57% white in 2002. One would guess it would be closer to 50% now. The population shift in VA has followed the election results for the last ten years. NOVA has grown quite a bit faster then rural VA and the state as a whole. SE Virginia has also lagged in growth. Generally speaking the 1st (substantial DC suburbs) 8th , 10th and 11th need to shed population while the rest of the state needs to gain it.
Control is split(currently) in redistricting in VA so the state is a bit of wild card.
Some moves seem logical. VA8 gives a bit of Fairfax county to VA11 which gives up a good bit of its outer suburbs. VA8 is super certain and VA11 is made much more democratic.
On the GOP side VA9 moves a bit more into Roanoke county and Griffin’s actual home moves into district. VA6 is even more short now and it moves into VA10’s excess near Winchester. VA5 is also short but moves into the Northern part of VA7(which also has an excess population) so peace breaks out in the Shenandoah Valley.
The Democrat concern would be at 8-3 the republicans are wanting to settle the truce right after they won the big battles.
If the democrat firm up VA11 but leave in place 8R-3D that would be close to Grant turning his sword over to Lee at Appomattox courthouse.
So not sure how VA comes out. Moran might be happy to lock in a seat and avoid a VRA tussle plus Connally certainly would like a safe seat.
is that the Asians of VA-10 are more South Asian (Indian, Pakistani) than East Asian (Chinese, Korean.)
you can get the white % close to 40.
That is a great map but like you said it won’t be happening this year! I think that minorities will continue to grow in the area so the white percentage will continue to decrease. Next go around VA should get a 12th district which is going to be NoVa based most likely.
At any rate Moran will be safe under this map or whatever is done. The real race will be when he retires for who jumps into that primary. He seems to be going strong so I don’t anticipate him leaving anytime soon. Arlington/Alexandria is filled with Democrats no matter their race and this serves as a Democratic vote dump with the VA GOP is more than happy to have.
I can definitely see one majority minority NoVa district. The demographics are now there. And considering the extra scrutiny Virginia gets from DoJ when redistricting (Thank you, VRA!), they may end up having to create one.