Here are the lists of my predictions compared with the actual results. My predictions were mixed in their DEM/GOP bias, but the House was way more DEM biased. I guess turnout was the key in these races. Seats that changed parties are in boldface.
GOVERNOR
State |
My Prediction |
Actual Result |
Difference |
Alabama |
R+15.3 |
R+15.8 |
D+0.5 |
Alaska |
R+15.7 |
R+20.6 |
D+4.9 |
Arizona |
R+15.0 |
R+13.5 |
R+1.5 |
Arkansas |
D+25.7 |
D+30.9 |
R+5.2 |
California |
D+14.3 |
D+11.4 |
D+2.9 |
Colorado |
D+3.7 |
D+13.9 |
R+10.2 |
Connecticut |
D+5.7 |
D+0.7 |
D+5.0 |
Florida |
D+1.7 |
R+1.2 |
D+2.9 |
Georgia |
R+7.7 |
R+9.8 |
D+2.1 |
Hawaii |
D+5.0 |
D+17.1 |
R+12.1 |
Idaho |
R+22.0 |
R+26.2 |
D+4.2 |
Illinois |
R+4.7 |
D+0.5 |
R+5.2 |
Iowa |
R+10.5 |
R+9.7 |
R+0.8 |
Kansas |
R+27.0 |
R+31.3 |
D+4.3 |
Maine |
R+11.3 |
R+1.8 |
R+9.5 |
Maryland |
D+12.7 |
D+13.5 |
R+0.8 |
Massachusetts |
D+2.7 |
D+6.3 |
R+3.6 |
Michigan |
R+16.7 |
R+18.2 |
D+1.5 |
Minnesota |
D+1.3 |
D+0.5 |
D+0.8 |
Nebraska |
R+42.0 |
R+48.6 |
D+6.6 |
Nevada |
R+15.7 |
R+11.8 |
R+3.9 |
New Hampshire |
D+8.3 |
D+7.5 |
D+0.8 |
New Mexico |
R+8.3 |
R+7.2 |
R+1.1 |
New York |
D+22.0 |
D+27.3 |
R+5.3 |
Ohio |
R+1.0 |
R+2.7 |
D+1.7 |
Oklahoma |
R+18.5 |
R+20.2 |
D+1.7 |
Oregon |
D+1.7 |
D+1.1 |
D+0.6 |
Pennsylvania |
R+9.0 |
R+9.0 |
Spot-on |
Rhode Island |
I+8.0 |
I+2.5 |
I+5.5 |
South Carolina |
R+8.3 |
R+4.3 |
R+4.0 |
South Dakota |
R+13.7 |
R+23.0 |
D+9.3 |
Tennessee |
R+28.0 |
R+31.9 |
D+3.9 |
Texas |
R+1.0 |
R+12.8 |
D+11.8 |
Utah |
R+25.3 |
R+32.4 |
D+7.1 |
Vermont |
D+2.0 |
D+1.7 |
D+0.3 |
Wisconsin |
R+8.7 |
R+5.7 |
R+3.0 |
Wyoming |
R+36.0 |
R+46.5 |
D+10.5 |
SENATE
State |
My Prediction |
Actual Result |
Difference |
Alabama |
R+28.0 |
R+30.6 |
D+2.6 |
Alaska |
D+0.7 |
R+4.8 |
D+5.5 |
Arizona |
R+23.0 |
R+24.5 |
D+1.5 |
Arkansas |
R+19.7 |
R+21.1 |
D+1.4 |
California |
D+6.7 |
D+9.6 |
R+2.9 |
Colorado |
R+1.0 |
D+0.9 |
R+1.9 |
Connecticut |
D+8.0 |
D+11.8 |
R+3.8 |
Delaware |
D+14.0 |
D+16.6 |
R+2.6 |
Florida |
R+16.0 |
R+19.2 |
D+3.2 |
Georgia |
R+25.7 |
R+18.9 |
R+6.8 |
Hawaii |
D+24.5 |
D+53.2 |
R+28.7 |
Idaho |
R+44.0 |
R+46.1 |
D+2.1 |
Illinois |
R+4.3 |
R+1.9 |
R+2.4 |
Indiana |
R+10.3 |
R+18.3 |
D+8.0 |
Iowa |
R+31.0 |
R+31.3 |
D+0.3 |
Kansas |
R+40.0 |
R+44.1 |
D+4.1 |
Kentucky |
R+3.2 |
R+11.6 |
D+8.4 |
Louisiana |
R+5.9 |
R+18.9 |
D+13.0 |
Maryland |
D+26.7 |
D+25.5 |
D+1.2 |
Missouri |
D+0.7 |
R+13.7 |
D+14.4 |
Nevada |
D+0.7 |
D+5.6 |
R+4.9 |
New Hampshire |
R+15.0 |
R+23.5 |
D+8.5 |
New York A |
D+28.7 |
D+32.4 |
R+3.7 |
New York B |
D+18.3 |
D+26.2 |
R+7.9 |
North Carolina |
R+12.3 |
R+12.1 |
R+0.2 |
North Dakota |
R+47.0 |
R+54.0 |
D+7.0 |
Ohio |
R+9.8 |
R+18.3 |
D+8.5 |
Oklahoma |
R+40.0 |
R+44.4 |
D+4.4 |
Oregon |
D+15.3 |
D+17.8 |
R+2.5 |
Pennsylvania |
R+4.7 |
R+2.0 |
R+2.7 |
South Carolina |
R+42.0 |
R+34.2 |
R+7.8 |
Utah |
R+25.3 |
R+28.8 |
D+3.5 |
Vermont |
D+35.0 |
D+33.5 |
D+1.5 |
Washington |
D+1.9 |
D+4.8 |
R+2.9 |
West Virginia |
D+1.3 |
D+10.1 |
R+8.8 |
Wisconsin |
R+7.7 |
R+4.9 |
R+2.8 |
HOUSE
District |
My Prediction |
Actual Result |
Difference |
AL-02 |
D+3.8 |
R+2.6 |
D+6.4 |
AZ-01 |
R+4.0 |
R+6.0 |
D+2.0 |
AZ-03 |
D+1.2 |
R+11.1 |
D+12.3 |
AZ-05 |
R+0.7 |
R+8.8 |
D+8.1 |
AZ-07 |
D+4.1 |
D+6.0 |
R+1.9 |
AZ-08 |
D+6.1 |
D+1.5 |
D+4.6 |
AR-01 |
R+5.6 |
R+8.3 |
D+2.7 |
AR-02 |
R+11.0 |
R+19.6 |
D+8.6 |
CA-03 |
R+3.8 |
R+6.9 |
D+3.1 |
CA-11 |
D+2.8 |
D+1.1 |
D+1.7 |
CA-18 |
D+10.8 |
D+17.0 |
R+6.2 |
CA-20 |
D+2.9 |
D+3.4 |
R+0.5 |
CA-44 |
R+13.2 |
R+11.2 |
R+2.0 |
CA-45 |
R+15.0 |
R+9.4 |
R+5.6 |
CA-47 |
D+8.3 |
D+13.7 |
R+5.4 |
CO-03 |
D+1.3 |
R+4.3 |
D+5.6 |
CO-04 |
R+3.6 |
R+11.1 |
D+7.5 |
CT-04 |
D+2.4 |
D+6.2 |
R+3.8 |
CT-05 |
D+4.2 |
D+8.2 |
R+4.0 |
DE-AL |
D+9.8 |
D+15.8 |
R+6.0 |
FL-02 |
R+9.3 |
R+12.2 |
D+2.9 |
FL-08 |
R+3.3 |
R+17.9 |
D+14.6 |
FL-22 |
D+0.9 |
R+8.8 |
D+9.7 |
FL-24 |
R+6.3 |
R+19.3 |
D+13.0 |
FL-25 |
R+3.0 |
R+9.6 |
D+6.6 |
GA-02 |
D+2.7 |
R+2.8 |
D+5.5 |
GA-08 |
R+12.5 |
R+5.4 |
R+7.1 |
HI-01 |
D+2.2 |
D+6.4 |
R+4.2 |
ID-01 |
D+2.4 |
R+9.7 |
D+12.1 |
IL-08 |
D+20.0* |
R+0.2 |
D+20.2 |
IL-10 |
D+7.6 |
R+2.2 |
D+9.8 |
IL-11 |
R+5.1 |
R+14.8 |
D+9.7 |
IL-14 |
R+0.3 |
R+6.3 |
D+6.0 |
IL-17 |
R+2.6 |
R+9.6 |
D+7.0 |
IN-02 |
D+4.4 |
D+1.4 |
D+3.0 |
IN-08 |
R+8.8 |
R+20.2 |
D+11.4 |
IN-09 |
D+0.5 |
R+10 |
D+10.5 |
IA-01 |
D+10.0 |
D+2.0 |
D+8.0 |
IA-02 |
D+8.8 |
D+5.1 |
D+3.7 |
IA-03 |
D+8.1 |
D+4.2 |
D+3.9 |
KS-03 |
R+10.0 |
R+19.8 |
D+9.8 |
KY-03 |
D+10.5 |
D+10.7 |
R+0.2 |
KY-06 |
D+3.7 |
D+0.3 |
D+3.4 |
LA-02 |
D+11.8 |
D+31.1 |
R+19.3 |
LA-03 |
R+12.3 |
R+27.6 |
D+15.3 |
ME-01 |
D+12.4 |
D+13.6 |
R+1.2 |
MD-01 |
R+4.9 |
R+12.1 |
D+7.2 |
MA-10 |
D+2.6 |
D+4.5 |
R+1.9 |
MI-01 |
R+2.7 |
R+11 |
D+8.3 |
MI-07 |
D+0.4 |
R+4.8 |
D+5.2 |
MI-09 |
D+3.9 |
D+2.6 |
D+1.3 |
MN-01 |
D+10.4 |
D+4.2 |
D+6.2 |
MN-08 |
D+4.9 |
R+1.6 |
D+6.5 |
MS-01 |
D+0.9 |
R+14.5 |
D+15.4 |
MS-04 |
D+2.7 |
R+5.1 |
D+7.8 |
MO-03 |
D+5.6 |
D+2.2 |
D+3.4 |
MO-04 |
D+20.0* |
R+5.3 |
D+25.3 |
NV-03 |
D+0.3 |
R+0.6 |
D+0.9 |
NH-01 |
R+10.3 |
R+11.6 |
D+1.3 |
NH-02 |
R+0.1 |
R+1.5 |
D+1.4 |
NJ-03 |
R+1.1 |
R+2.7 |
D+1.6 |
NM-01 |
R+0.6 |
D+3.6 |
R+4.2 |
NM-02 |
R+4.8 |
R+10.8 |
D+6.0 |
NY-01 |
D+7.6 |
D+0.4 |
D+7.2 |
NY-13 |
D+7.5 |
R+3.3 |
D+10.8 |
NY-19 |
R+1.0 |
R+5.4 |
D+4.4 |
NY-20 |
R+3.5 |
R+9.8 |
D+6.3 |
NY-23 |
D+0.9 |
D+1.1 |
R+0.2 |
NY-24 |
D+3.3 |
R+6.2 |
D+9.5 |
NY-25 |
D+6.6 |
R+0.4 |
D+7.0 |
NY-29 |
R+12.5 |
R+13.2 |
D+0.7 |
NC-02 |
D+2.5 |
R+0.8 |
D+3.3 |
NC-07 |
D+3.8 |
D+7.4 |
R+3.6 |
NC-08 |
D+2.4 |
D+9.3 |
R+6.9 |
NC-11 |
D+11.9 |
D+8.6 |
D+3.3 |
ND-AL |
R+5.0 |
R+9.8 |
D+4.8 |
OH-01 |
R+6.3 |
R+5.5 |
R+0.8 |
OH-06 |
D+2.1 |
R+5.1 |
D+7.2 |
OH-13 |
D+10.0 |
D+11.4 |
R+1.4 |
OH-15 |
R+6.3 |
R+12.8 |
D+6.5 |
OH-16 |
R+0.6 |
R+10.8 |
D+10.2 |
OH-18 |
R+1.9 |
R+13.4 |
D+11.5 |
OR-05 |
D+2.8 |
D+5.3 |
R+2.5 |
PA-03 |
R+6.3 |
R+11.4 |
D+5.1 |
PA-04 |
D+12.6 |
D+1.6 |
D+11.0 |
PA-07 |
R+3.8 |
R+10.9 |
D+7.1 |
PA-08 |
R+4.5 |
R+7.0 |
D+2.5 |
PA-10 |
R+4.6 |
R+10.4 |
D+5.8 |
PA-11 |
R+2.1 |
R+9.4 |
D+7.3 |
PA-12 |
D+5.4 |
D+1.6 |
D+3.8 |
PA-15 |
R+11.6 |
R+14.5 |
D+2.9 |
RI-01 |
D+4.9 |
D+6.0 |
R+1.1 |
SC-05 |
R+4.8 |
R+10.2 |
D+5.4 |
SD-AL |
R+0.3 |
R+2.2 |
D+1.9 |
TN-04 |
R+1.0 |
R+18.5 |
D+17.5 |
TN-06 |
R+12.5 |
R+37.9 |
D+25.4 |
TN-08 |
R+9.5 |
R+20.2 |
D+10.7 |
TX-17 |
D+1.7 |
R+25.2 |
D+26.9 |
TX-23 |
D+2.2 |
R+5.0 |
D+7.2 |
TX-27 |
D+2.9 |
R+0.8 |
D+3.7 |
VA-02 |
R+3.0 |
R+10.6 |
D+7.6 |
VA-05 |
R+5.3 |
R+3.8 |
R+1.5 |
VA-09 |
D+4.5 |
R+4.8 |
D+9.3 |
WA-02 |
D+5.8 |
D+2.2 |
D+3.6 |
WA-03 |
R+3.6 |
R+6.0 |
D+2.4 |
WA-08 |
R+5.4 |
R+4.2 |
R+1.2 |
WV-01 |
R+2.3 |
R+0.8 |
R+1.5 |
WI-03 |
D+8.8 |
D+3.8 |
D+5.0 |
WI-07 |
R+7.2 |
R+7.7 |
D+0.5 |
WI-08 |
R+5.5 |
R+9.7 |
D+4.2 |
Loretta Sanchez won, not lost, by 13.7 so that should read R+5.4.
You picked Carnahan? Really?