2010 Elections: Comparing My Predictions with the Actual Results

Here are the lists of my predictions compared with the actual results. My predictions were mixed in their DEM/GOP bias, but the House was way more DEM biased. I guess turnout was the key in these races. Seats that changed parties are in boldface.

GOVERNOR

State
My Prediction
Actual Result
Difference
Alabama
R+15.3
R+15.8
D+0.5
Alaska
R+15.7
R+20.6
D+4.9
Arizona
R+15.0
R+13.5
R+1.5
Arkansas
D+25.7
D+30.9
R+5.2
California
D+14.3
D+11.4
D+2.9
Colorado
D+3.7
D+13.9
R+10.2
Connecticut
D+5.7
D+0.7
D+5.0
Florida
D+1.7
R+1.2
D+2.9
Georgia
R+7.7
R+9.8
D+2.1
Hawaii
D+5.0
D+17.1
R+12.1
Idaho
R+22.0
R+26.2
D+4.2
Illinois
R+4.7
D+0.5
R+5.2
Iowa
R+10.5
R+9.7
R+0.8
Kansas
R+27.0
R+31.3
D+4.3
Maine
R+11.3
R+1.8
R+9.5
Maryland
D+12.7
D+13.5
R+0.8
Massachusetts
D+2.7
D+6.3
R+3.6
Michigan
R+16.7
R+18.2
D+1.5
Minnesota
D+1.3
D+0.5
D+0.8
Nebraska
R+42.0
R+48.6
D+6.6
Nevada
R+15.7
R+11.8
R+3.9
New Hampshire
D+8.3
D+7.5
D+0.8
New Mexico
R+8.3
R+7.2
R+1.1
New York
D+22.0
D+27.3
R+5.3
Ohio
R+1.0
R+2.7
D+1.7
Oklahoma
R+18.5
R+20.2
D+1.7
Oregon
D+1.7
D+1.1
D+0.6
Pennsylvania
R+9.0
R+9.0
Spot-on
Rhode Island
I+8.0
I+2.5
I+5.5
South Carolina
R+8.3
R+4.3
R+4.0
South Dakota
R+13.7
R+23.0
D+9.3
Tennessee
R+28.0
R+31.9
D+3.9
Texas
R+1.0
R+12.8
D+11.8
Utah
R+25.3
R+32.4
D+7.1
Vermont
D+2.0
D+1.7
D+0.3
Wisconsin
R+8.7
R+5.7
R+3.0
Wyoming
R+36.0
R+46.5
D+10.5

SENATE

State
My Prediction
Actual Result
Difference
Alabama
R+28.0
R+30.6
D+2.6
Alaska
D+0.7
R+4.8
D+5.5
Arizona
R+23.0
R+24.5
D+1.5
Arkansas
R+19.7
R+21.1
D+1.4
California
D+6.7
D+9.6
R+2.9
Colorado
R+1.0
D+0.9
R+1.9
Connecticut
D+8.0
D+11.8
R+3.8
Delaware
D+14.0
D+16.6
R+2.6
Florida
R+16.0
R+19.2
D+3.2
Georgia
R+25.7
R+18.9
R+6.8
Hawaii
D+24.5
D+53.2
R+28.7
Idaho
R+44.0
R+46.1
D+2.1
Illinois
R+4.3
R+1.9
R+2.4
Indiana
R+10.3
R+18.3
D+8.0
Iowa
R+31.0
R+31.3
D+0.3
Kansas
R+40.0
R+44.1
D+4.1
Kentucky
R+3.2
R+11.6
D+8.4
Louisiana
R+5.9
R+18.9
D+13.0
Maryland
D+26.7
D+25.5
D+1.2
Missouri
D+0.7
R+13.7
D+14.4
Nevada
D+0.7
D+5.6
R+4.9
New Hampshire
R+15.0
R+23.5
D+8.5
New York A
D+28.7
D+32.4
R+3.7
New York B
D+18.3
D+26.2
R+7.9
North Carolina
R+12.3
R+12.1
R+0.2
North Dakota
R+47.0
R+54.0
D+7.0
Ohio
R+9.8
R+18.3
D+8.5
Oklahoma
R+40.0
R+44.4
D+4.4
Oregon
D+15.3
D+17.8
R+2.5
Pennsylvania
R+4.7
R+2.0
R+2.7
South Carolina
R+42.0
R+34.2
R+7.8
Utah
R+25.3
R+28.8
D+3.5
Vermont
D+35.0
D+33.5
D+1.5
Washington
D+1.9
D+4.8
R+2.9
West Virginia
D+1.3
D+10.1
R+8.8
Wisconsin
R+7.7
R+4.9
R+2.8

HOUSE

District
My Prediction
Actual Result
Difference
AL-02
D+3.8
R+2.6
D+6.4
AZ-01
R+4.0
R+6.0
D+2.0
AZ-03
D+1.2
R+11.1
D+12.3
AZ-05
R+0.7
R+8.8
D+8.1
AZ-07
D+4.1
D+6.0
R+1.9
AZ-08
D+6.1
D+1.5
D+4.6
AR-01
R+5.6
R+8.3
D+2.7
AR-02
R+11.0
R+19.6
D+8.6
CA-03
R+3.8
R+6.9
D+3.1
CA-11
D+2.8
D+1.1
D+1.7
CA-18
D+10.8
D+17.0
R+6.2
CA-20
D+2.9
D+3.4
R+0.5
CA-44
R+13.2
R+11.2
R+2.0
CA-45
R+15.0
R+9.4
R+5.6
CA-47
D+8.3
D+13.7
R+5.4
CO-03
D+1.3
R+4.3
D+5.6
CO-04
R+3.6
R+11.1
D+7.5
CT-04
D+2.4
D+6.2
R+3.8
CT-05
D+4.2
D+8.2
R+4.0
DE-AL
D+9.8
D+15.8
R+6.0
FL-02
R+9.3
R+12.2
D+2.9
FL-08
R+3.3
R+17.9
D+14.6
FL-22
D+0.9
R+8.8
D+9.7
FL-24
R+6.3
R+19.3
D+13.0
FL-25
R+3.0
R+9.6
D+6.6
GA-02
D+2.7
R+2.8
D+5.5
GA-08
R+12.5
R+5.4
R+7.1
HI-01
D+2.2
D+6.4
R+4.2
ID-01
D+2.4
R+9.7
D+12.1
IL-08
D+20.0*
R+0.2
D+20.2
IL-10
D+7.6
R+2.2
D+9.8
IL-11
R+5.1
R+14.8
D+9.7
IL-14
R+0.3
R+6.3
D+6.0
IL-17
R+2.6
R+9.6
D+7.0
IN-02
D+4.4
D+1.4
D+3.0
IN-08
R+8.8
R+20.2
D+11.4
IN-09
D+0.5
R+10
D+10.5
IA-01
D+10.0
D+2.0
D+8.0
IA-02
D+8.8
D+5.1
D+3.7
IA-03
D+8.1
D+4.2
D+3.9
KS-03
R+10.0
R+19.8
D+9.8
KY-03
D+10.5
D+10.7
R+0.2
KY-06
D+3.7
D+0.3
D+3.4
LA-02
D+11.8
D+31.1
R+19.3
LA-03
R+12.3
R+27.6
D+15.3
ME-01
D+12.4
D+13.6
R+1.2
MD-01
R+4.9
R+12.1
D+7.2
MA-10
D+2.6
D+4.5
R+1.9
MI-01
R+2.7
R+11
D+8.3
MI-07
D+0.4
R+4.8
D+5.2
MI-09
D+3.9
D+2.6
D+1.3
MN-01
D+10.4
D+4.2
D+6.2
MN-08
D+4.9
R+1.6
D+6.5
MS-01
D+0.9
R+14.5
D+15.4
MS-04
D+2.7
R+5.1
D+7.8
MO-03
D+5.6
D+2.2
D+3.4
MO-04
D+20.0*
R+5.3
D+25.3
NV-03
D+0.3
R+0.6
D+0.9
NH-01
R+10.3
R+11.6
D+1.3
NH-02
R+0.1
R+1.5
D+1.4
NJ-03
R+1.1
R+2.7
D+1.6
NM-01
R+0.6
D+3.6
R+4.2
NM-02
R+4.8
R+10.8
D+6.0
NY-01
D+7.6
D+0.4
D+7.2
NY-13
D+7.5
R+3.3
D+10.8
NY-19
R+1.0
R+5.4
D+4.4
NY-20
R+3.5
R+9.8
D+6.3
NY-23
D+0.9
D+1.1
R+0.2
NY-24
D+3.3
R+6.2
D+9.5
NY-25
D+6.6
R+0.4
D+7.0
NY-29
R+12.5
R+13.2
D+0.7
NC-02
D+2.5
R+0.8
D+3.3
NC-07
D+3.8
D+7.4
R+3.6
NC-08
D+2.4
D+9.3
R+6.9
NC-11
D+11.9
D+8.6
D+3.3
ND-AL
R+5.0
R+9.8
D+4.8
OH-01
R+6.3
R+5.5
R+0.8
OH-06
D+2.1
R+5.1
D+7.2
OH-13
D+10.0
D+11.4
R+1.4
OH-15
R+6.3
R+12.8
D+6.5
OH-16
R+0.6
R+10.8
D+10.2
OH-18
R+1.9
R+13.4
D+11.5
OR-05
D+2.8
D+5.3
R+2.5
PA-03
R+6.3
R+11.4
D+5.1
PA-04
D+12.6
D+1.6
D+11.0
PA-07
R+3.8
R+10.9
D+7.1
PA-08
R+4.5
R+7.0
D+2.5
PA-10
R+4.6
R+10.4
D+5.8
PA-11
R+2.1
R+9.4
D+7.3
PA-12
D+5.4
D+1.6
D+3.8
PA-15
R+11.6
R+14.5
D+2.9
RI-01
D+4.9
D+6.0
R+1.1
SC-05
R+4.8
R+10.2
D+5.4
SD-AL
R+0.3
R+2.2
D+1.9
TN-04
R+1.0
R+18.5
D+17.5
TN-06
R+12.5
R+37.9
D+25.4
TN-08
R+9.5
R+20.2
D+10.7
TX-17
D+1.7
R+25.2
D+26.9
TX-23
D+2.2
R+5.0
D+7.2
TX-27
D+2.9
R+0.8
D+3.7
VA-02
R+3.0
R+10.6
D+7.6
VA-05
R+5.3
R+3.8
R+1.5
VA-09
D+4.5
R+4.8
D+9.3
WA-02
D+5.8
D+2.2
D+3.6
WA-03
R+3.6
R+6.0
D+2.4
WA-08
R+5.4
R+4.2
R+1.2
WV-01
R+2.3
R+0.8
R+1.5
WI-03
D+8.8
D+3.8
D+5.0
WI-07
R+7.2
R+7.7
D+0.5
WI-08
R+5.5
R+9.7
D+4.2

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