A hyper-partisan Democratic gerrymander of Texas. Probably not VRA compliant and Texas might even have some laws against such whacked-outness. However when drawing hyper-partisan maps I like to take “screw the other party over as much as possible and forget the law” approach. This another full Texas map, the first I drew was before partisan data was available.
The two crowning achievements of this map are the three Democrats out of Travis County (City of Austin), which is something I posted earlier and worked to further perfect, and six Democrats out of Harris County (City of Houston).
Every Republican seat is a major vote sink, only 4 of the 14 GOP seats are less than 70% McCain. Which means there are 10 seats that are R+24 or higher including what would be the most Republican district in the country at R+30.
For the sake of classifying districts 59% Obama and higher are labeled as Safe D, 56-58% is Likely D and <56% is Lean D. There is only one district that is less than 56% Obama than isn’t a GOP vote sink.
Overall this is a 22-14 Democratic Map with one district that could be won by the GOP in a wave year. So I think the worst case scenario for the Dems would be 21-15
District 13
Obama 23%
McCain 76%
69% White, 6% Black, 22% Hispanic
The most Republican district in the state and probably the most conservative in the country. Interestingly enough despite being a R+30 district it is 22% Hispanic.
Safe R
District 17
Obama 26%
McCain 73%
67% White, 5% Black, 26% Hispanic
A R+27 West Texas District that is 26% Hispanic. Includes the cities of Midland, Odessa and San Angelo.
Safe R
District 19
Obama 27%
McCain 72%
67% White, 6% Black, 25% Hispanic
This is a third West Texas district that is over 20% Hispanic. That definitely doesn’t help in this district. Includes the cities of Abilene and Lubbock
Safe R
District 4
Obama 31%
McCain 68%
81% White, 8% Black, 8% Hispanic
North East Texas and part of Collin County
Safe R
District 5
Obama 28%
McCain 71%
76% White, 13% Black, 9% Hispanic
Tyler-Longview based district for Louie Gohmert. Hey we got to keep the most entertaining Republicans right!
Safe R
District 8
Obama 26%
McCain 73%
81% White, 4% Black, 11% Hispanic
Includes most of the very fast growing Montgomery County.
Safe R
District 11
Obama 28%
McCain 71%
74% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic
This is my favorite GOP vote sink based on unattractiveness. It gets all the Republican vote that would have ended up jeporadizing district 10, 31 and 9 if no counties were split.
Safe R
District 14
Obama 29%
McCain 70%
73% White, 6% Black, 17% Hispanic
Another GOP vote sink near Houston.
Safe R
District 25
Obama 27%
McCain 72%
78% White, 13% Black, 8% Hispanic
East Texas GOP district.
District 35
Obama 26%
McCain 73%
78% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic
Like the rest of the GOP districts, another vote sink carefully drawn.
District 16
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
24% White, 3% Black, 70% Hispanic
Most of El Paso but I also used 16 to grab some of the more Republican counties from district 23 in order to help make 23 more Democratic.
Safe D
District 23
Obama 55%
McCain 44%
27% White, 2% Black, 69% Hispanic
Shedding some of the more Republican counties and picking up part of Southern El Paso shifts this district 4 points towards the Democrats compared to it’s previous 51% Obama/48% McCain breakdown. In 2010 Conseco beat Rodriguiz by 5 points.
Lean D
District 36
Obama 29%
McCain 70%
80% White, 2% Black, 16 Hispanic
Contains a decent amount of Lamar Smiths current district including the conservative parts of North Bexar County.
Safe R
District 15
59% Obama
40% McCain
19% White, 1% Black, 78% Hispanic
Most of McAllen and the most Republican parts of Corpus Christi are here.
Safe D
District 27
Obama 58%
McCain 41%
22% White, 2% Black, 74% Hispanic
Solomon Ortiz’s loss to Blake Farenthold was definitely a sign of a GOP wave. The old district 27 was 53%/46%. I would want to rate this district Safe D since Farenthold won by 1 point and the shift by 5 probably would have safed Ortiz, but I’d be breaking break my own rules.
Likely D
District 28
Obama 59%
McCain 41%
19% White, 3% Black, 76% Hispanic
This district shifts a few more points Democratic from his current 56%/43% district. It was difficult to get a good image capture of this district since it is drawn like it is.
Safe D
District 20
Obama 58%
McCain 41%
30% White, 5% Black, 61% Hispanic
I tried so hard to get two 59% Obama districts in San Antonio and just couldn’t do it. 58% is really close and as much as I want to label this a safe D district I can’t since my intro says 59% will be considered a safe D district.
Likely D
District 21
Obama 58%
McCain 41%
33% White, 10% Black, 54% Hispanic
Eastern San Antonio and southern Bexar county.
Likely D
I would have zoomed in more but that would have cut off several of the districts originating from Houston.
District 2
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
36% White, 26% Black, 33% Hispanic
Very Democratic part of North Houston and the Democratic parts of Huntsville in East Texas
Safe D
District 7
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
35% White, 24% Black, 30% Hispanic, 11% Asian
District 9
Obama 59%
McCain 41%
38% White, 27% Black, 23% Hispanic, 12% Asian
Stretches from Galveston up into Brazos County, most of the Democratic vote is in Fort Bend. Interesting note is this district is 12% Asian
Safe D
District 18
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
39% White, 25% Black, 28% Hispanic
South and West Houston district.
Safe D
District 22
Obama 60%
McCain 40%
39% White, 32% Black, 26% Hispanic
The most Democratic district partially in Houston also includes Beaumont, Port Arthur, Hudson and Nacodoches.
Safe D
District 29
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
29% White, 10% Black, 57% Hispanic
A good piece of Green’s current district is in the new 29, he should have no problem winning here.
Safe D
Like Houston I had to take this photo to account for the sprawly districts
District 10
Obama 60%
McCain 39%
52% White, 6% Black, 38% Hispanic
This district includes most of Lloyd Doggetts current district in South Austin and it sort of stretches all the way down into South Texas.
Safe D
District 31
Obama 58%
McCain 40%
47% White, 24% Black, 25% Hispanic
Squeezing a third Democratic district out of Travis County was great. This district includes parts of Travis County, Waco, Killeen, Temple, College Station
Likely D
District 33
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
67% White, 7% Black, 19% Hispanic
Most of Austin is in this district including Round Rock.
Safe D
District 3
Obama 60%
McCain 38%
39% White, 18% Black, 38% Hispanic
The most Democratic district in the state with Obama winning by a 22 point margin. It loops around the very conservative Park Cities and Preston Hollow area of Dallas County
District 12
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
45% White, 21% Black, 29% Hispanic
Contains much of the City of Fort Worth. I’d like to see Lon Burnam run in this one. He’s a very liberal State Representative in Fort Worth.
Safe D
District 24
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
53% White, 18% Black, 21% Hispanic
Contains the Democratic parts of Arlington in Tarrant County and Southwest Dallas County. The college town Denton is also roped into the district.
Safe D
District 30
Obama 60%
McCain 39%
40% White, 19% Black, 35% Hispanic
Mostly West Dallas including southern parts of the city and Democratic pieces of Collin/Denton County
Safe D
District 32
Obama 60%
McCain 39%
45% White, 28% Black, 21% Hispanic
South Dallas and some eastern Dallas suburbs including Garland. I think Eddie-Bernice Johnson would run in this one.
Safe D
Well it happen? No, but a Democrat can dream 🙂
… eat your heart out.
Phil Burton would be proud.
45 D?
From the looks of it I’d say a GOP vote sink since it includes Plano and the Park Cities.
Well done. You know, Republicans are actually going to have some problems drawing the new map and protecting all their incumbents — obviously protecting Farenthold and Canseco without violating the VRA is going to be difficult, but they’re also going to run into some problems with the three West Texas incumbents since the 13th and 19th need to expand (the 11th is right around the ideal population thanks to solid growth in Midland/Odessa), but the only place that those districts can really expand is toward the I-35 corridor, which means they’ll encroach on some exurban territory that could be used to help other Republicans.
is no prettier way to do it than this, sock it to em. Too bad it’s almost definately illegal. And the Republican legislature. But one day!