A hyper-partisan Democratic gerrymander of Texas. Probably not VRA compliant and Texas might even have some laws against such whacked-outness. However when drawing hyper-partisan maps I like to take “screw the other party over as much as possible and forget the law” approach. This another full Texas map, the first I drew was before partisan data was available.
The two crowning achievements of this map are the three Democrats out of Travis County (City of Austin), which is something I posted earlier and worked to further perfect, and six Democrats out of Harris County (City of Houston).
Every Republican seat is a major vote sink, only 4 of the 14 GOP seats are less than 70% McCain. Which means there are 10 seats that are R+24 or higher including what would be the most Republican district in the country at R+30.
For the sake of classifying districts 59% Obama and higher are labeled as Safe D, 56-58% is Likely D and <56% is Lean D. There is only one district that is less than 56% Obama than isn’t a GOP vote sink.
Overall this is a 22-14 Democratic Map with one district that could be won by the GOP in a wave year. So I think the worst case scenario for the Dems would be 21-15
District 13
Obama 23%
McCain 76%
69% White, 6% Black, 22% Hispanic
The most Republican district in the state and probably the most conservative in the country. Interestingly enough despite being a R+30 district it is 22% Hispanic.
Safe R
District 17
Obama 26%
McCain 73%
67% White, 5% Black, 26% Hispanic
A R+27 West Texas District that is 26% Hispanic. Includes the cities of Midland, Odessa and San Angelo.
Safe R
District 19
Obama 27%
McCain 72%
67% White, 6% Black, 25% Hispanic
This is a third West Texas district that is over 20% Hispanic. That definitely doesn’t help in this district. Includes the cities of Abilene and Lubbock
Safe R
District 4
Obama 31%
McCain 68%
81% White, 8% Black, 8% Hispanic
North East Texas and part of Collin County
Safe R
District 5
Obama 28%
McCain 71%
76% White, 13% Black, 9% Hispanic
Tyler-Longview based district for Louie Gohmert. Hey we got to keep the most entertaining Republicans right!
Safe R
District 8
Obama 26%
McCain 73%
81% White, 4% Black, 11% Hispanic
Includes most of the very fast growing Montgomery County.
Safe R
District 11
Obama 28%
McCain 71%
74% White, 8% Black, 14% Hispanic
This is my favorite GOP vote sink based on unattractiveness. It gets all the Republican vote that would have ended up jeporadizing district 10, 31 and 9 if no counties were split.
Safe R
District 14
Obama 29%
McCain 70%
73% White, 6% Black, 17% Hispanic
Another GOP vote sink near Houston.
Safe R
District 25
Obama 27%
McCain 72%
78% White, 13% Black, 8% Hispanic
East Texas GOP district.
District 35
Obama 26%
McCain 73%
78% White, 6% Black, 11% Hispanic
Like the rest of the GOP districts, another vote sink carefully drawn.
District 16
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
24% White, 3% Black, 70% Hispanic
Most of El Paso but I also used 16 to grab some of the more Republican counties from district 23 in order to help make 23 more Democratic.
Safe D
District 23
Obama 55%
McCain 44%
27% White, 2% Black, 69% Hispanic
Shedding some of the more Republican counties and picking up part of Southern El Paso shifts this district 4 points towards the Democrats compared to it’s previous 51% Obama/48% McCain breakdown. In 2010 Conseco beat Rodriguiz by 5 points.
Lean D
District 36
Obama 29%
McCain 70%
80% White, 2% Black, 16 Hispanic
Contains a decent amount of Lamar Smiths current district including the conservative parts of North Bexar County.
Safe R
District 15
59% Obama
40% McCain
19% White, 1% Black, 78% Hispanic
Most of McAllen and the most Republican parts of Corpus Christi are here.
Safe D
District 27
Obama 58%
McCain 41%
22% White, 2% Black, 74% Hispanic
Solomon Ortiz’s loss to Blake Farenthold was definitely a sign of a GOP wave. The old district 27 was 53%/46%. I would want to rate this district Safe D since Farenthold won by 1 point and the shift by 5 probably would have safed Ortiz, but I’d be breaking break my own rules.
Likely D
District 28
Obama 59%
McCain 41%
19% White, 3% Black, 76% Hispanic
This district shifts a few more points Democratic from his current 56%/43% district. It was difficult to get a good image capture of this district since it is drawn like it is.
Safe D
District 20
Obama 58%
McCain 41%
30% White, 5% Black, 61% Hispanic
I tried so hard to get two 59% Obama districts in San Antonio and just couldn’t do it. 58% is really close and as much as I want to label this a safe D district I can’t since my intro says 59% will be considered a safe D district.
Likely D
District 21
Obama 58%
McCain 41%
33% White, 10% Black, 54% Hispanic
Eastern San Antonio and southern Bexar county.
Likely D
I would have zoomed in more but that would have cut off several of the districts originating from Houston.
District 2
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
36% White, 26% Black, 33% Hispanic
Very Democratic part of North Houston and the Democratic parts of Huntsville in East Texas
Safe D
District 7
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
35% White, 24% Black, 30% Hispanic, 11% Asian
District 9
Obama 59%
McCain 41%
38% White, 27% Black, 23% Hispanic, 12% Asian
Stretches from Galveston up into Brazos County, most of the Democratic vote is in Fort Bend. Interesting note is this district is 12% Asian
Safe D
District 18
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
39% White, 25% Black, 28% Hispanic
South and West Houston district.
Safe D
District 22
Obama 60%
McCain 40%
39% White, 32% Black, 26% Hispanic
The most Democratic district partially in Houston also includes Beaumont, Port Arthur, Hudson and Nacodoches.
Safe D
District 29
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
29% White, 10% Black, 57% Hispanic
A good piece of Green’s current district is in the new 29, he should have no problem winning here.
Safe D
Like Houston I had to take this photo to account for the sprawly districts
District 10
Obama 60%
McCain 39%
52% White, 6% Black, 38% Hispanic
This district includes most of Lloyd Doggetts current district in South Austin and it sort of stretches all the way down into South Texas.
Safe D
District 31
Obama 58%
McCain 40%
47% White, 24% Black, 25% Hispanic
Squeezing a third Democratic district out of Travis County was great. This district includes parts of Travis County, Waco, Killeen, Temple, College Station
Likely D
District 33
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
67% White, 7% Black, 19% Hispanic
Most of Austin is in this district including Round Rock.
Safe D
District 3
Obama 60%
McCain 38%
39% White, 18% Black, 38% Hispanic
The most Democratic district in the state with Obama winning by a 22 point margin. It loops around the very conservative Park Cities and Preston Hollow area of Dallas County
District 12
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
45% White, 21% Black, 29% Hispanic
Contains much of the City of Fort Worth. I’d like to see Lon Burnam run in this one. He’s a very liberal State Representative in Fort Worth.
Safe D
District 24
Obama 59%
McCain 40%
53% White, 18% Black, 21% Hispanic
Contains the Democratic parts of Arlington in Tarrant County and Southwest Dallas County. The college town Denton is also roped into the district.
Safe D
District 30
Obama 60%
McCain 39%
40% White, 19% Black, 35% Hispanic
Mostly West Dallas including southern parts of the city and Democratic pieces of Collin/Denton County
Safe D
District 32
Obama 60%
McCain 39%
45% White, 28% Black, 21% Hispanic
South Dallas and some eastern Dallas suburbs including Garland. I think Eddie-Bernice Johnson would run in this one.
Safe D
Well it happen? No, but a Democrat can dream 🙂