Tag: Connecticut

For “A Republican Connecticut” I’ve made not one but four interesting maps. There is also a bonus Democratic Connecticut for those interested. Redistricting in Connecticut, as I understand it, prohibits the splitting of towns for any reason other than to balance population. Therefore I have not split any towns in any of the maps and have kept population deviation within 1%; town splitting to accomodate the last couple of thousand people won’t change any numbers. As in only 29 of the 169 towns in Connecticut did a majority of voters vote for McCain over Obama, most by a slender margin, it was rather difficult to produce overly Republican districts. Edit: The colouring problems should now be resolved

Republican Connecticut (2-3)

We will start off with a messy looking map that should give Republicans a chance at both the R+1 1st and the D+3 2nd.

1st (Blue) 51.7% Obama

2nd (Green) 56.1% Obama

3rd (Dark Magenta) 70.9% Obama

4th (Red) 63.3% Obama

5th (Gold) 66.1% Obama

Republican Connecticut with Water Contiguity (2-3)

CD1 and CD2 are both close to toss-up districts with R+1/D+1 PVIs respectively. Districts four and, spectacularly, five both rely on water continuity. The water south of Darien in western Connecticut shouldn’t be coloured for this or future maps; it’s just a limitation in the application.

1st (Blue) 51.9% Obama

2nd (Green) 54.1% Obama

3rd (Dark Magenta) 68.8% Obama

4th (Red) 66.6% Obama

5th (Gold) 67.0% Obama

Republican Connecticut (1-4)

CD1 is the most Republican district I could make in Connecticut without splitting towns or using water contiguity, it doesn’t quite get under 50% Obama but it does achieve a R+2 PVI. Three democratic district are stacked on top of each other in the centre of the state (and one on the western edge) whilst the republican district wraps itself around them on three sides.

1st (Blue) 50.8% Obama

2nd (Green) 68.0% Obama

3rd (Dark Magenta) 61.9% Obama

4th (Red) 64.0% Obama

5th (Gold) 62.3% Obama

Republican Connecticut with Water Contiguity (1-4)

At last a Connecticut congressional district that voted for McCain! By the thumping margin of 575 votes! And all that needed to be done was sacrifice four out of the five districts and use water continuity for two of the districts.

1st (Blue) 49.9% Obama

2nd (Green) 66.5% Obama

3rd (Dark Magenta) 62.6% Obama

4th (Red) 69.4% Obama

5th (Gold) 60.2% Obama

Democratic Connecticut

Finally I made a bonus Democratic Connecticut that might be quite a good choice for redistricting if Democrats had free reign over the process. Only counties too large for their own congressional district are split and the current representatives remain in their own districts, though not Chris Murphy since he is running for senate (although he could be drawn back into the 5th easily enough if it were desired).

1st (Blue) 61.6% Obama

All of Litchfield county, most of northern Hartford county, Waterbury and Wolcott towns in New Haven county.

2nd (Green) 60.5% Obama

All of New London, Windham, and Tolland counties, south eastern Hartford County, and Enfield township.

3rd (Dark Magenta) 60.0% Obama

Western New Haven county and Northern Fairfield county.

4th (Red) 61.0% Obama

Southern Fairfield county.

5th (Gold) 62.8% Obama

Big change here. The district shifts east to encompass all of Chester county, southern Hartford county and western New Haven county.

Today is the flipside of yesterday’s California release: states with stagnant populations and a bunch of old white people. We’ll start with Connecticut, which is certainly characterized by stability: it easily retained five seats, not being particularly near either the cusp of gaining or losing, and even its five districts are pretty close to in balance with each other. Its target is 714,819, up from 681K in 2000.

Ohio is one of only a couple states to lose two seats, taking it from 18 down to 16. Its new target is 721,032, up from about 631K in 2000. The state as a whole didn’t lose population (gaining 183,364), but seven of its districts did (the 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 17th). The Columbus area was the only part of the state that seemed to experience robust growth; in fact, despite the state losing two seats, the 12th (a swing district held by GOPer Pat Tiberi) will actually need to shed population… much of the state’s growth is accounted for in the growth in the 12th.

The numbers today don’t really change the overall redistricting equation: one of the northeastern Ohio Democrats is clearly going to have to go, and while the Akron-area 13th (held by Betty Sutton) actually gained some population unlike its neighbors, it may be the one that gets dissected simply by virtue of being in the very middle (with the 9th pressuring it from the west, the 10th and 11th from the north, and the 17th from the east). As for which GOPer gets cut, I’d expected it to be one of Bill Johnson (in the 6th) or Bob Gibbs (in the 18th), but the 18th, despite its mostly rural, Appalachian flavor, seemed to hang in there better than expected, population-wise. Now I’m wondering if Bob Latta’s 5th in the rural northwest, which is going to be pressured by the 9th to its north and the 4th to its east, may be a more natural target. Or here’s another possibility (made likelier by the possibility that the local GOP might like rid themselves of a liability in the form of Jean Schmidt): the 2nd might be targeted, despite its decent numbers, as both the 1st to its west and the 6th to its east need to gain a ton of people (and extending the 1st east into red, suburban Clermont County would make GOPer Steve Chabot’s life easier).

Pennsylvania’s target is 705,688 based on the drop from 19 to 18 seats, up from about 646K in 2000. The 2nd, 3rd, 12th, and 14th all lost population. I’d really recommend looking at the Census Bureau’s interactive map of Pennsylvania, as it shows exactly what’s going on: the eastern half of the state gained a bit, while nearly every county in the state’s western half outright lost population. In fact, there were enough gains in the east that four districts wind up needing to shed population: the 6th and 15th in the Philadelphia suburbs/exurbs, and the more rural, Pennsylvania Dutch-flavored 16th and 19th. These are all Republican-held districts, but these are all districts that moved sharply in the Dem direction from 2004 to 2008, while on the other hand, the shrinking western districts are Democratic areas but ones where the overall trend has been away from the Dems. (Interestingly, two cities that over recent decades came to symbolize dead northeastern industrial centers, Allentown and Reading, are actually rebounding, gaining around 10,000 people each and helping to grow the 15th and 16th respectively. Much of the growth in those two cities, though, as well as the small growth experienced in Philadelphia, is Hispanic.)

With the GOP in control of the redistricting process in Pennsylvania and the population losses heavily concentrated in the Pittsburgh area, it looks like the axe is going to fall heavily on fairly-new Dem Mark Critz in the odd-shaped 12th, which was designed to be a friendly district for John Murtha cobbling together Cambria County with the Dem-friendly parts of Pittsburgh’s collar counties but is barely holding onto its Dem roots these days. Mike Doyle’s 14th (in Pittsburgh proper), despite being the biggest population loser, is probably going to stay intact, as Republicans will need to concede at least one blue vote sink in the southwest (and probably get bluer, as it’ll need to expand into the dead steel towns of the Mon Valley to its south, currently the bluest part of the 12th).

If Critz wants to stick around, he’s likely to find himself either fighting Jason Altmire in a primary in the 4th or Tim Murphy in a general in the 18th (although Critz has enough of a Johnstown-area base that he might be able to pull out an upset in whatever district Johnstown winds up in, unless the GOP decides that the 9th, in the central part of the state, is red enough to safely absorb Johnstown).

Well, I started thinking about ways the Connecticut Democratic Party can get Ted Kennedy, Jr., into politics without potentially screwing over Rep. Chris Murphy of CT-05, the bold young soul in a bid for the Senate seat held by retiring independent Sen. Joseph Lieberman. And I thought, “Well, what about starting him off with a nice House seat?” And that evolved into wondering about exactly how to negate the fact that CT-05 represents a pickup opportunity for the Republicans, provided they field a good candidate, now that Murphy is moving on to (hopefully) bigger and better things.

I came up with this map.

What I’ve done here is I’ve basically cracked the existing CT-05, giving pieces of it to CT-01 (pink), CT-04 (red), and the new south-central-based incarnation of CT-05 (blue). I can’t guarantee Rep. Jim Himes in CT-04 is going to be thrilled, considering he had a closer-than-expected reelection campaign against Dan Debicella (drawn into Rep. Rosa DeLauro’s CT-03 [purple] on this map); Rep. John Larson in CT-01 should be fine, considering the sizable Democratic tilt of Hartford. I think Democrats will have to concede one district as “fair fight” and hope the state’s strong Democratic proclivities and a mediocre Republican bench are enough to keep it in friendly hands, and I think they’d rather trust an incumbent member of Congress to hold it down rather than the likes of First Selectman Mary Glassman, whose ticket didn’t even come close to prevailing in the Democratic gubernatorial primary last year. Having two close districts, as they did last year, is a bit uncomfortable when the Republicans remain capable of winning statewide at least on the state government level.

I’m not too knowledgeable about Connecticut politics in particular. My idea here is that by drawing CT-03 a bit west, CT-04 a bit north, CT-01 over into the northwestern corner of the state (making it much more compact in the process), and CT-02 more into the north-central than the south-central part of the state, I could create a new, open-seat CT-05 without jeopardizing the Democrats’ control of the congressional delegation. This CT-05 is specifically drawn for Kennedy, who lives in Branford (just east of the new boundary with CT-03, in the vicinity of New Haven). With a seat tailor-made for his political debut, Kennedy might be less tempted to upset the apple cart by making a damn-the-torpedoes run at the Democratic nomination-a scenario the Democratic establishment in Connecticut and the DSCC would surely like to avoid.

Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in February or March and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at California, Colorado, and Connecticut.

Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas

The rest below the fold…

California

Districts: 53

Who’s in charge? Nonpartisan commission

Is that important? Heck yes

Boy, is this the big kahuna. With California’s delegation comprising 12.2% of the entire House, and 17.6% of the whole Democratic caucus, the Golden State was already a dominant player in the nationwide redistricting wars, but with its recent switch from legislative control (which would have meant a Democratic gerrymander in 2011) to a nonpartisan commission, any semblance of certainty is out the window. The commission must preserve VRA-protected minority seats, of which there are at least 12 (Barbara Lee’s 9th, Jim Costa’s 20th, Xavier Becerra’s 31st, Judy Chu’s 32nd, Karen Bass’s 33rd, Lucille Roybal-Allard’s 34th, Maxine Waters’s 35th, Laura Richardson’s 37th, Grace Napolitano’s 38th, Linda Sanchez’s 39th, Joe Baca’s 43rd, and Loretta Sanchez’s 47th) and  several more if you interpret the law as protecting Latino-majority/plurality districts represented by non-Hispanic whites.

Republicans say the losers in California redistricting will be white Democrats representing less-than-completely-solid seats (such as Jerry McNerney and Dennis Cardoza), seats likely to be broken up and redistributed between other districts (such as Lois Capps), or seats likely to be turned into VRA-protected minority districts (such as one of the San Fernando Valley Dems: Berman, Sherman, or Schiff). Democrats say that the current map is not that gerrymandered in their favor, and is instead an incumbent protection gambit; they argue that nonpartisan redistricting will ruin as many GOP incumbents (Ken Calvert and Gary Miller, say) as Dem incumbents. In any case, few solid predictions can be made at this point, and I’d like very much to hear what those of you at SSP think will happen. If forced at gunpoint to predict something about the new map, I’d say a seat will be shifted from the Bay Area to the Inland Empire, and that Jerry McNerney is the likely “eliminee,” though it could also be a longtimer like George Miller or Pete Stark. Also, a competitive Central Coast district will be recreated à la the California 22nd in the 1990s, hurting the reelection prospects of both Lois Capps and Elton Gallegly. Demographics will also compel the commission to create a couple new Hispanic districts, at least one of which will be a reconfiguration of a seat now represented by a white L.A. Democrat.

The commission’s membership has been finalized and its work should be complete by sometime this autumn. I, for one, greatly look forward to the fireworks.

Colorado

Districts: 7

Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor and Senate, GOP House)

Is that important? Not really

The bare Republican majority in Colorado’s House should ensure a safer seat for Scott Tipton in the 3rd (represented by a Republican from 1992 to 2004 and a Democrat from 2004 to 2010), but otherwise won’t change the partisan dynamics much in Colorado. Overwhelming Democratic edges for Diana DeGette in Denver and Jared Polis in the Boulder area may be diluted a bit to create a rock-solid constituency for Ed Perlmutter, but that will be the only tangible benefit for Team Blue.

Connecticut

Districts: 5

Who’s in charge? Democrats

Is that important? No

An overwhelmingly Democratic legislature will draw districts for an already all-Democratic House delegation. Jim Himes and Chris Murphy should get slightly safer seats at the marginal expense of rock-solid incumbents John Larson and Rosa DeLauro, but that will be the extend of remapping drama in the Nutmeg State.

Later this week: Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii!

So, I said I’d actually play around with Dave’s Redistricting App.  Unfortunately, I don’t really know my geography that well, as to what parts of what district are D or R leaning, or have significant populations of what minority groups, or where college town communities are, etc..  But I needed a goal to work toward.

I started trying to see how I could redistrict Rhode Island as closely following county lines as possible.  But that was boring.  The insane maps–such as abgin’s New York Baconmandering–are more fun.  But I don’t know where anything is.  Wait…I’ll stroke my ego by writing out my username’s initials!

The other requirements for this map were to get as close to an even division of population as possible, and to retain five districts.

Map and other info below the fold.

Fitting the G in there was rather hard.  It still looks rather sloppy.  Well, granted, so does the M.  Next time, I should pick appropriate states for doing what I want to do with them…

I know a lot of cities were cracked.  This is mostly for population balancing and location (i.e. letter-drawing) reasons.

FWIW, the population figures for these districts are as follows, according to Dave’s App.  (They might not be totally correct: for example, a tiny district east of New Britain seems to contain no voters for some reason.)

Interestingly, I’ve ended up with three districts of about seventy-something percent white populations.  Dunno if CT has enough minorities to trigger VRA restrictions, but I didn’t take them into account here anyway.

Who goes where?  First thoughts suggest that all but the new 4th district might stay D, especially the second (central CT cities except Hartford and Middletown) and third (Hartford, Middletown, and Norwich).  However, after trying to think for a bit about which incumbent should go where,…I became very confused.  Maybe Himes could get the new CT-05, and give DeLauro the new CT-02, while Courtney and Larson can decide who gets CT-03 and CT-04.  Larson would likely take 03, but amusingly, I would suddenly become represented by Joe Courtney.  (Well, it was close anyway, I live next to Tolland County which is currently in Courtney’s district.)  I guess this leaves C. Murphy to take CT-01…?

(Yes, Salisbury and Sharon are covered by the table, but you can safely assume they’re in the new 4th district.)

And then I pressed “Use New Pop Est”.  And all the numbers changed and now I’m off by like 10,000 people in some districts.  And I can’t change them back.  And I don’t know how to load a map back into the App…  Are these the new population counts from the 2010 Census data?

For some reason, coming up with a title for this made me think of “My Little Pony”.  I’m not a fan of it, but I just realized that it might be amusing to produce a My Little Ponymander.

Unrelated note: If anyone was wondering what happened in the general election rematch for probate judge in my area between Brian Griffin and Marianne Lassman Fisher, here are the results: Griffin 13,458; Lassman Fisher 11,679.  Griffin again won Windsor by a big enough margin to overcome Lassman Fisher’s combined smaller margins in East Windsor and South Windsor.

4:19am: One last update from beyond the grave: Dan Maes wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination — joyous news for Democrats everywhere. The final margin, according to the AP, was 50.7% Maes, 49.3% McInnis.

3:17am: The SSP news team is calling it a night. Hopefully we wake up tomorrow to find Dan Maes as the GOP nominee in Colorado and Karen Handel and Nathan Deal locked in a drawn-out recount battle. (One is allowed to dream, right?)

2:48am: Deep Thought: Have Colorado’s ballot-counters been kidnapped by the UN’s armada of black helicopters? We may never know…

2:47am: We’re now at 94.2% reporting, and Dan Maes by just shy of 5200 votes. Come on, you whacko, let’s blow this thing and go home!

1:37am: With 91% reporting, Dan Maes in CO-Gov has a lead just shy of 4,000 votes. By the way, somewhere along the way, the AP finally called CO-03’s GOP primary for Scott Tipton (56-44), not that you were probably agonizing over that one.

1:33am: Ah, now the AP has made it official on their own site. Dayton will face Tom Emmer (and IP nominee Tom Horner) in November, in a pretty interesting political second act.

1:30am: While the AP’s site itself doesn’t have the red check mark, Politico is saying that the AP has called MN-Gov for Mark Dayton. (Looks like they can do the same math, regarding Duluth, that I can.) 95% are reporting, and Dayton has moved into a 4,000 vote margin (still 41-40), with 135/178 of St. Louis now reported.

1:25am: Things are pretty stable for Dan Maes in CO-Gov, with 90% reporting. Maes leads 50.5%-49.5%, outside auto-recount territory. He has an almost 4,000 vote margin. That’s with all of Denver having reported, and the outstanding precincts coming in Maes-friendly counties like El Paso and Douglas.

1:20am: Apparently auto-recount territory in Minnesota is also one-half of one percent. Dayton is at 40.8%, while Kelliher has 40.3%. So we’re literally right on the cusp. (Although if things keep going for Dayton, he’ll soon be out of the zone.)

1:17am: Now things are really moving in Dayton’s direction. He’s up to a 1,000 vote margin, with 94% reporting. St. Louis is at 100/178 now, which is pushing things for Dayton.

1:10am: Mark Dayton has moved into the lead in MN-Gov. Just barely… it’s 41-40 in his favor now, with a 400-vote margin. But that seems likely to increase, with St. Louis still with only 68 of 178 reporting. That’s with 91% reporting overall. Seems to be mostly rural counties filling in the gap, so Duluth will be the icing on Dayton’s cake.

12:44am: Also regarding CO-Gov, the only counties that were really keeping McInnis in this at all were the ones in his old CO-03, like Mesa (72-28 McInnis) and Pueblo (53-47 McInnis). Denver is 51-49 McInnis and all the other suburban/exurban counties are going for Maes. Mesa (Grand Jct.) and Pueblo are done reporting, while there are still lots of outstanding precincts in El Paso, Arapahoe and Jefferson (suburbs), Douglas (exurbs), and Larimer (Ft. Collins): all Maes counties.

12:40am: Via the twittermajig, Jennifer Duffy points out two helpful things: one, the recount level in Colorado is one-half of one percent. Right now, Maes is up, believe it or not, 50.26%-49.74%, so he’s just outside that zone. (That’s with 79% reporting.) Second, though, she points out that he’s expected to run strongest in El Paso County (Colorado Spgs.), where there are still a couple hundred precincts outstanding, so it’s looking more like Maes will win this thing recount-free.

12:34am: Things are verrry slowly converging in Minnesota. 87% are reporting now, and it’s 41-40, MAK over Dayton, but that’s with only a 600 vote lead. And St. Louis still hasn’t added any more precincts! Most of the new votes seem to have come in from Stearns Co (St. Cloud), where Dayton leads 42-34.

12:23am: Go, crazy bike-hating campaign-finance-law-violating guy! Dan Maes, with 78% in now, has padded his advantage, up to a 1,600 vote lead over plagiarist Scott McInnis. I’m not familiar with Colorado recount law, but that’s a 50.2%-49.8% advantage.

12:17am: Sifting over Minnesota results with a fine-toothed comb, it looks like Beltrami Co. (Bemidji) is the second biggest clot of outstanding precincts. (7 of 62 have reported.) Dayton has a narrower edge there, 41-38. There’s also some smaller counties (Pine, Pope, Roseau) that haven’t reported anything (all of which have 40-some precincts, all of which are rural counties… again, not that there’s a clear pattern among the rural counties, but the general trend in such counties seems to favor Dayton.

12:12am: Actually, I take that back, I am sensing a pattern. The biggest clot of outstanding votes are in St. Louis County (Duluth and the Iron Range), where only 49 of 178 have reported. Hennepin and Ramsey (the Twin Cities) are done reporting. Dayton seems to have an advantage in St. Louis, seeing as how he was previously elected statewide, whereas MAK has a small Twin Cities constituency. Dayton’s winning 54-30 in St. Louis, so if he can keep those numbers up, he might actually pull this out in the end.

12:10am: Things are very close in Minnesota now, with 81% reporting. MAK leads Dayton 41-40, with Entenza at 18. It’s less than a 4,000 vote lead for Kelliher, out of about 375,000. I can’t discern a pattern among the counties… Kelliher and Dayton are both from the Twin Cities… so it’s hard to see how much of a trend is at work here.

12:02am: Rocky Mountain high? Looks like they may be taking a ganja break in Colorado, where the needle’s been stuck on 75% reporting for a while. Dan Maes still has about a 1,200 vote lead over Scott McInnis.

11:39pm: OK, now the AP has called it for Ken Buck, for those of you keeping close score at home.

11:37pm: Things are staying fairly stable but close in Minnesota. With 67% reporting, it’s MAK 42, Dayton 39, Entenza 18. It’ll be a while till we know what’s what here.

11:36pm: And the GOP gubernatorial primary in Colorado keeps puttering along, at 50-50 with Maes currently up by 1,050.

11:35pm: In Colorado, various twitterers are saying Ken Buck has won, but the AP hasn’t graced us with a red checkmark yet. He’s up 52-48 with 76% reporting, though, so it looks pretty locked in. Kind of a faceplant for John McCain, who extended a lot of political capital to ally Norton the last few weeks.

11:20pm: 75% in in Colorado. Things are looking slightly better for Dan Maes, or better yet, for a protracted recount that ends with a Maes win. It’s 50-50 with a 1,300 lead for Maes.

11:16pm: Wow, things are definitely tightening in MN-Gov. It’s now 42 MAK, 39 Dayton, 18 Entenza. That’s with 55% reporting. Nate Silver just tweeted that he sees this coming down to a few thousand votes. (Currently Kelliher’s lead is about 10,000.)

11:12pm: 2897 out of 2898 precincts have reported in Georgia. I think that’s about as complete as we’re going to get… and no call from the AP. Deal leads 291,713 to 289,353. Karen Handel had better hope there are 2,500 Handel votes in that last precinct. That’s 50.2%-49.8% for Deal, so we are pretty certainly heading for a recount.

11:10pm: Somewhere along the way, the AP called the CO-07 GOP primary for Ryan Frazier, 65-35. He’ll face Ed Perlmutter in an uphill fight in November.

11:08pm: Although 52-48 qualifies as a close race, it’s pretty mundane compared with the excitement in GA-Gov and CO-Gov. Ken Buck leads Jane Norton by 4%, or by 10,000 votes.

11:06pm: Let’s take one more look at Colorado. In the Gov GOP primary, it’s Dan Maes up by only about 500 votes, at 50-50. Could we possibly see two recounts between GOPers? Best possible outcome, recount followed by Maes victory, and him fighting to bitter end. 73% are reporting.

10:52pm: MAK now leads Dayton by 43-38 with 42% in.

10:48pm: Irish eyes are smiling (I guess) — Tom Foley has won the GOP gube nomination in Connecticut.

10:44pm: We’re up to 99.4% reporting in GA-Gov. Deal leads by 3,500 — or 0.6% of the vote. We’re definitely in the recount zone here.

10:42pm: It’s worth noting that Taryl Clark is only getting 65% of the vote against Maureen Reed. Perhaps some Reed supporters didn’t hear the news that she dropped out of the race two months ago.

10:38pm: MAK’s lead over Mark Dayton has fallen even further, to 44-38 with 32% reporting.

10:37pm: With 67% in, Ken Buck is now up over Jane Norton by nearly ten grand. Maes still leads McInnis by one g.

10:33pm: The AP went on a binge in Connecticut, calling CT-02 for ex-TV anchor Janet Pecinpaugh, CT-04 for Dan Debicella, and CT-05 for Sam Caligiuri. The Republican gubernatorial primary is still un-called, with Tom Foley leading Michael Fedele by 43-38 (74% of the vote in).

10:30pm: Over in Minnesota, the Dem gube primary is narrowing slightly — MAK leads Dayton by 45-37 with 28% in.

10:27pm: Bicyclists beware, Dan Maes is back up in the GOP CO-Gov primary. He leads McInnis by 1000 votes with 65% reporting.

---

RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

10:24pm: Time to move this party over to a freshly baked thread.

10:24pm: Guess who’s happy in Georgia? Roy Barnes. The GOPers seem possible that they’ll enter into an automatic runoff, with 97% reporting. It’s a 50.5%-49.5% advantage for Nathan Deal.

10:22pm: We’re up to 23% reporting in Minnesota, and things seem to be solidifying: MAK is still in the lead at 46, with Dayton at 36 and Entenza at 17.

10:16pm: No calls yet in CO-03 and CO-07, but Tipton leads McConnell 55-45 and Frazier leads Sias 65-35, not much drama left there.

10:15pm: By contrast, things are spreading a little more in CO-Sen R. Ken Buck now leads 52-48 over Norton.

10:14pm: Uh oh. McInnis has pulled back into the lead in CO-Gov, at least according to the AP. It’s 50-50, with a McInnis lead of 2,000.

10:12pm: Andrew Romanoff has reportedly called Michael Bennet to concede.

10:10pm: Just keep in mind: Georgia has an automatic recount for results within 1%. With 96% reporting, Handel has tightened things a little, to a 50.4%-49.6% race. 4,500 votes separate them.

10:08pm: Here’s a useful tidbit: the AP has called the IP primary in MN-Gov for Tom Horner. I’d heard reports that random GOPers (with no major primary of their own) were thinking of crossing over to sandbag Horner and try to get someone less appealing there, as the center-right Horner seems likelier to spoil things for Emmer than the Dem nominee.

10:07pm: We might also expect a call soon in CT-04 (where Dan Debicella’s at 64%, although only about one-third is reporting) and maybe also CT-05, where 75% is reporting and Caligiuri keeps gaining a little more daylight: he now leads Bernier and Greenberg 41-31-29.

10:03pm: The AP has called the CT-Sen GOP primary for Linda McMahon. She beats Simmons and Schiff 49-29-22. Still not sure I understand Simmons’ gambit, but at this point, it doesn’t matter. Let’s get ready for Blumenthal and McMahon to rumble.

10:01pm: Could Minnesota be another primary that the pollsters all got wrong? With 15% reporting, Margaret Anderson Kelliher is actually adding to her lead. She’s leading the lazy men at 47, with 35 for Dayton and 17 for Entenza.

9:58pm: The AP hasn’t called CO-Sen D, but the Denver Post have, and they probably know their state well. They just called it for Michael Bennet, who will not be joining Bob Bennett in the retirement home.

9:57pm: With ballots going to be counted over the coming days (Washington-style, they’ll count anything with today’s postmark), it may be a while till we know who wins either the R primaries in CO-Gov or CO-Sen. On the Senate side, it’s also Ken Buck 51, Jane Norton 49. For the Dems, it’s Michael Bennet 54, Andrew Romanoff 46.

9:55pm: Switching back to Colorado: it looks like they’re losing a little momentum in the count, as after quickly reaching half they’re only at 56% reporting now statewide. In the Gov GOP primary, Dan Maes still has a 51-49 lead over Scott McInnis.

9:54pm: I know you were on pins and needles about the wingnut-vs-wingnut duel in GA-07. The AP has called it in favor of former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall, 55-45, over Jody Hice.

9:52pm: We’re closing in on done in Georgia. (Apparently the Fulton County website is the one that’s right, and 75% there have reported.) Overall, 93% are in, and we’re still not close to knowing who won GA-Gov R. Deal still leads Handel 51-49, with a 7,000 vote lead out of more than 500K.

9:50pm: In CT-05, Sam Caligiuri is picking up a little speed. He’s at 40, vs. 30 each for Bernier and Greenberg, with about one-third reporting.

9:49pm: I wonder how Rob Simmons would be doing if he hadn’t done the weird Ross Perot-style angry dropout and half-assed return? Although it’s looking like Linda McMahon will win comfortably, Simmons plus Peter Schiff are keeping her below the halfway mark: 48-30-22.

9:47pm: It’ll be a while till we get a call in the GOP gube race in CT. Fedele’s definitely keeping things interesting, having had a late surge of his own. He’s at 37 to Foley’s 43, with 20 for Griebel.

9:45pm: The Hartford Courant is reporting that Ned Lamont has conceded the gubernatorial primary. (Guess who’s heaving a sigh of relief? Joe Lieberman.) And the AP just called the race, too. It’s 58-42 Malloy, with a little less than half reporting.

9:44pm: A little weirdness to note in Fulton County, Georgia. Their county website say they’re reporting 75% in, but they only have a few thousand more votes reported than according to the AP… and the AP says Fulton is only 21% reporting. We’ll have to see how this resolves itself.

9:42pm: We’re up to 2% in in MN-Gov’s DFL primary now, and things have switched here too. Kelliher’s now in the lead at 44, with Dayton at 33 and Kelliher at 22. A lot of Ramsey Co. (St. Paul) votes have come in, and they’re going for MAK by a wide margin.

9:40pm: Sad news for rematch fans. In GA-13 (not an interesting race, except for Base Connect enthusiasts), Deborah “The Defrauder” Honeycutt has lost her GOP runoff. The AP calls it for Mike Crane, 68-32; Crane will face David Scott in this safe Dem district.

9:39pm: There’s also those wee House races in Colorado. In CO-07’s GOP primary, Ryan Frazier seems to have this under control, beating Lang Sias 65-35 with more than half in. And with about a quarter in, Scott Tipton is way ahead of Bob McConnell, 58-42.

9:37pm: Also in Colorado, where we’ve shot past 50% reporting (to 56), things have swapped around in the Senate race. Ken Buck now leads Jane Norton, by a narrow 51-49 (133K to 127K), and Michael Bennet now leads Andrew Romanoff by a more convincing 54-46 (129K to 109K).

9:35pm: As things progress in Colorado, Dan Maes is starting to pull into the lead in the GOP gube primary. He leads Scott McInnis 52-48. That’s extremely good news, as Maes won’t drop out (while McInnis might, allowing a salvageable replacement) and will see this through to the bitter end.

9:32pm: The CT-04 GOP primary isn’t too remarkable (Dan Debicella is at 62% against two Some Dudes), but CT-05 is a three-way barnburner. Sam Caligiuri currently has a small edge, with 20% reporting. He leads Justin Bernier and Mark Greenberg 37-33-30.

9:30pm: Meanwhile, on the GOP side in Connecticut, Tom Foley is keeping his edge; he leads Michael Fedele and Oz Griebel 45-36-19. (Griebel, as the least known but also apparently least objectionable of the three, also seems to be overperforming.)

9:28pm: Dan Malloy is starting to put a little distance between him and Ned Lamont in the Connecticut governor’s Dem primary. Malloy now leads 58-42 with 28% reporting. Looks like Malloy’s way overperforming the polls, although the polls did capture his late surge.

9:25pm: We finally have some numbers in Minnesota, although it’s only a fraction of a percent of precincts reporting, from bellwether Anoka and Dakota Cos. in the MSP suburbs. Mark Dayton is at 43, with Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 36 and Matt Entenza at 20.

9:23pm: Insert Dan Ratherism here about the closeness of the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff. Nathan Deal leads Karen Handel 51-49 with 79% in, with about a 9,000 vote margin out of over 450,000 cast.

9:21pm: Looks like we have a few AP calls down in the Peach State. Tom Graves will get to stay in the House for another two years without having to face Lee Hawkins again; Graves wins GA-09 56-44. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney will get to take his nuclear power plant project management skills to the general election against John Barrow; he defeated Carl Smith 62-38. No call in GA-07 yet, although Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice 55-45 with about two-thirds in.

9:19pm: We’re racking up the numbers pretty quickly in Colorado now. Over in the Governor’s GOP primary, with almost 20% in, McInnis leads Maes by less than 1,000 votes, at 51-49.

9:11pm: Quite a few votes are reporting in Colorado, and Romanoff leads Bennet by 51-49 with 14% of precincts in. Norton leads Buck by 54-46 so far.

9:09pm: We’re at 70% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 237,146 to 229,295.

C’mon baby, let’s go!

---

RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

9:01pm: Now that MN and CO are closed, let’s move this party over here.

8:55pm: 64% in, and Deal leads by 212,126 to 201,445.

8:50pm: Fulton County fans should know that they have their own results website, featuring a mind-bogglingly annoying auto-scroll feature. Enjoy!

8:47pm: So we’re up to 61% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 194,074 to 185,254.

8:44pm: Back in Connecticut, Malloy leads Lamont by 57-43 with about 10% in. Foley is up on Fedele by 46-45. Janet Peckinpaugh leads Daria Novak by 43-37 in the 2nd, and Caligiuri leads Greenberg by only 35-33 in the 5th.

8:37pm: 54% reporting in GA, and Deal’s lead has closed to 168,784-162,623.

8:26pm: We’re now at 43% reporting in Georgia, and Deal now leads Handel by 123,489 votes to 114,045. Deal’s keeping his 4% lead steady.

8:21pm: Over in the Nutmeg state, Foley leads Fedele by 46-34 with 2% of town precincts reporting. Malloy is up by 56-44 over Lamont, and McMahon has a 48-27-25 lead over Simmons and Schiff. In the 5th CD, Sam Caligiuri has a 36-32-32 lead over businessman Mark Greenberg and Afganistan vet Justin Bernier.

8:18pm: We’re up to 34% reporting in GA, and Nathaniel Deal is holding onto a 83,957-77,554 lead.

8:10pm: Deal is now leading by a full 4%, 72,107 to 66,595, with 31% reporting. Handel’s even losing Gwinnett County narrowly to Deal, which she won by a large spread back in July.

8:09pm: If you’d like to compare tonight’s results to the first round of voting, check out this handy table of county results.

8:05pm: Again, this seems to be a rare night where the Associated Press (and, therefore, the Politico) are getting lapped by the Georgia SoS. With 28% in, Deal now leads by 56,437-53,131 (3%).

8:03pm: So back to GA: Deal now sports a 48,814-46,354 lead over Handel with 26% in.

8:02pm: Polls have now closed in Connecticut.

7:57pm: Look out! Deal just took a 0.6% lead, according to the SoS. 24% of precincts are now reporting.

7:53pm: The crew over at SSP Labs is still setting up the mainframe, but we should get some projections to you once the boys in the long white coats are good and ready.

7:52pm: Deal’s now pulled even (according to the SoS office), trailing Handel by just over 40 votes, 24,739-24,693. 18% reporting.

7:48pm: In the House races, Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice by 10% in GA-07, incumbent Tom Graves leads Screamin’ Lee Hawkins by 14% in GA-09, and Ray McKinney leads Carl Smith 10% in GA-12. Oh, and Deborah Honeycutt is getting thrashed by Mike Crane in the 13th.

7:46pm: Handel now leads by just under 1000 votes (2.6%) with 15% of precincts reporting.

7:35pm: It’s now 9,630 Handel, 8,899 Deal (a 4% lead) with 9% of precincts reporting, according to the SoS. Only 1% of e-day votes have been counted so far, though.

7:20pm: We’re up to 3% reporting (according to the SoS office), and Handel’s lead over Deal is now 2,240-2,052 (that’s 52%-48%).

7:13pm: The GA SoS has our first taste of results for the night, with Handel leading Deal by a mere 28 votes.

Polls have now closed in Georgia, and SSP Headline News will be using this thread to follow the returns. Connecticut closes at 8pm Eastern and Minnesota and Colorado close at 9pm Eastern. We’ll touch base with those states later.

---

RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

After a slow few weeks in late June and July, August promises to be quite exciting, primary-wise!

Here are some races to watch in August:

8/3:

MO-Sen (R) – Blunt v. teabagger

MO-04 (R) – Free-for-all

MO-07 (R) – open seat

Proposition C – It’s about NULLIFICATION!

KS-Sen (R) – Moran/Tiahrt

KS-01, 04 (R) – open seats

KS-03 (R) – Yoder v. Lightner

KS-04 (D) – will Raj Goyle get VicRawl’d?

MI-Gov (D), (R)

MI-01, 02, 03 (R) – open seats

MI-07 (R) – Rooney/Walberg

MI-09 (R) – Rocky v. Welday

MI-12 (D)

MI-13 (D) – Kilpatrick weak

8/5: (hey, two primaries in one week!)

TN-Gov (R) – open seat

TN-03 (R) – Wamp’s open seat

TN-04 (R) – clusterfuck

TN-06 (R) – open seat

TN-08 (R) – Kirkland v. Flinn

TN-09 (D) – impending Willie Herenton fail

8/10:

CT-Gov (D) and (R) – Lamont/Malloy and Fedele/Foley

CT-Sen (R) – ghost of Rob Simmons?

CT-02, 04, 05 (R)

CO-Gov (R) – McInnis and Maes double fail

CO-Sen (D) – Bennet v. Romanoff

CO-Sen (R) – the devil wears prada?

CO-03, 07 (R)

GA-Gov (R) – Palin Handel v. Newt Deal

GA-07, 12 (R) – more runoffs

GA-09 (R) – Graves v. Hawkins round 3

MN-Gov (D) – Dayton v. Kelliher

8/17:

WA-Sen

WA-03

WY-Gov (D), (R)

8/24:

AZ-Sen (D), (R)

AZ-03 (R) – Shadegg’s open seat

AZ-01, 05, 08 (R)

VT-Gov (D)

FL-Gov (R) – (yes!!!!!!)

FL-Sen (D) – Meek v. Greene

FL-12, 25 (R) – open seats

FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)

FL-02 (D) – challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1

FL-17 (D) – Meek’s open seat

AK-Gov (R) – Parnell and the ghost of Palin?

AK-Sen (R) – Murkowski v. Palin proxy

8/28:

LA-Sen (R) – Vitter v. Traylor

LA-02 (D) – Lafonta v. Richmond

LA-03 (R)

WV-Sen (D), (R) – Byrd special primary

I thought it would be interesting to use Dave’s Redistricting App to show that it was possible to create minority-majority districts in places that people might not necessarily expect, yet are indeed possible. I know that most of these districts will probably never be created, but it was an interesting chance to see what districts could be created. Technically, the definition of a majority-minority district according to the Supreme Court is any district that is less than 50% white (a coalition district), not necessarily a majority for one specific group. So some of these districts are +50% for one group, such as black or Hispanic, others have a plurality for another group, while others are just less than 50% white. So here are some of the districts I looked at:

California

Racial stats: 51% Asian, 29% white, 12% Hispanic, 4% other, 3% black

This is an Asian majority district in the Bay Area. While several current districts have an Asian plurality with current Census data, none of them have an Asian majority. This district would probably elect an Asian representative, most likely Rep. Mike Honda, who already represents many Asian areas in San Jose. I think this might be the first Asian majority district to ever exist outside of Hawaii.

Colorado

Racial stats: 51% Hispanic, 37% white, 7% black, 3% Asian, 1% Native American, 1% other

It was actually possible to create a district in the Denver area that is majority-Hispanic. I linked Hispanic areas in the cities of Lakewood, Denver, Commerce City, Longmont, Brighton, and Greeley. Most of the voters come from Diana DeGette’s 1st district and Ed Perlmutter’s 7th district, although Jared Polis’s 2nd district and Betty Markey’s 4th district also lose some voters. I assume this district would elect a Democrat, possibly Diana DeGette, or possibly someone else.

Connecticut

Racial stats: 43% white, 27% black, 24% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 3% other

By linking minority areas in the cities of Bridgeport, New Haven, Waterbury, New Britain, and Hartford, it was possible to create a district that is majority-minority in Connecticut. The district has the homes of John Larson and Rosa DeLauro, and takes in all of the major urban centers in the four eastern and central districts, so it would probably help Republicans in some of the other districts. While the district is less than 50% white, it is almost evenly split between the district’s Hispanic and black populations, so it would be interesting to see what would happen in an election here.

Indiana

Racial stats: 45% black, 43% white, 9% Hispanic, 2% other, 1% Asian

By connecting heavily black areas in Indianapolis and Gary, it is possible to create a district that is plurality (yet not majority) black. I assume that Andre Carson would run here and win, although he would probably be challenged in the primary by Pete Visclosky. However, this district is more Indianapolis, so I think Carson would defeat Visclosky. This district would be incredibly Democratic either way, I’m sure Obama broke 75% here, maybe even 80%.

New Jersey

Racial stats: 39% white, 34% black, 21% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 2% other

This district connects minority areas in Atlantic City, Camden, and Trenton, and could probably be made even less white than this version is. Battle Royale between John Adler and Robert Andrews that would allow a minority candidate to slip through the primary? Thanks to andgarden for this idea.

New Mexico

1st district (blue): 53% Hispanic, 37% white, 5% Native American, 2% other, 2% black, 1% Asian

2nd district (green): 51% Hispanic, 42% white, 4% Native American, 1% black, 1% other, 1% Asian

3rd district (purple): 55% white, 22% Hispanic, 17% Native American, 2% other, 2% black, 1% Asian

As it stands now, all three New Mexico districts are majority-minority, although Dave’s Redistricting App shows a Hispanic majority in only one district, the current NM-02, with updated 2008 numbers. So I wanted to see if it was possible to create not just one, but two Hispanic majority districts. I accomplished this task without too much difficulty, although I admit that it looks a bit strange. The 2nd district remains almost unchanged, although it picks up Torrance County and Hispanic-majority San Miguel County and loses the cities of Carlsbad and Hobbs. Meanwhile, the city of Albuquerque is split in half, along with the northern and eastern edges of the state. The Hispanic western half of Albuquerque as well as other Hispanic areas to the north and east of the 2nd district, as well as Santa Fe go into the 1st district. Meanwhile, the mostly white eastern half of Albuquerque is put into the sprawling 3rd district, which goes from Gallup and Farmington in the northwest all the way down to Hobbs in the southeast.

This would set up an interesting chain of events assuming the three Democratic congressmen currently in office (Heinrich, Teague, and Lujan) were still in office. No one would probably want to run in the new 3rd district, which is the white-majority district and the most Republican of the three. Teague would most likely run in the 2nd district, which is similar to his current district, although he would have to move as his home in Hobbs is now in the 3rd district. Meanwhile, Lujan and Heinrich would probably face off in the 3rd district, although I imagine Lujan would be the favorite since he represents much of this district already and there is now a Hispanic majority in the district. Meanwhile, a Republican would likely win the 3rd district seat, although perhaps I am wrong since New Mexico is a pretty Democratic state on the whole and this district still has significant Hispanic (22%) and Native American (17%) populations. This map would never occur with a Democratic legislature/governor, although perhaps the Republicans would attempt this if they controlled the state government, which is highly unlikely for now.

Ohio

Racial stats: 53% black, 42% white, 2% other, 1% Asian, 1% Hispanic

This district actually inspired the rest of the diary after I thought of it over the summer. This new majority-black district links African-American areas in the cities of Cincinnati, Dayton, and Columbus, and manages to look cleaner than even the current NC-12 (Mel Watt’s district). It would almost certainly elect a black Democrat, and at the same time would take pressure off of other Republicans such as Pat Tiberi and Mike Turner. If Steve Chabot was elected in 2010, he would probably have to run against Boehner or Schmidt in the primary as this district would take up much of the current OH-01’s turf in Cincinnati. If Steve Driehaus hung on in 2010, I think he would probably lose the primary to an African-American, although who knows what would happen.

Also, several people have said that they have been unable to keep OH-10 as a majority-black district in Cleveland without going into Akron.

It is indeed possible, here is a map:

Racial stats: 50% black, 41% white, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% other

The main way I did this was by taking a lot of the population from Dennis Kucinich’s district, which puts his district 270,000 people in the red, which makes it almost a given his district will be combined with Sutton’s district in my opinion.

Texas

Racial stats: 44% white, 33% black, 19% Hispanic, 1% Asian, 1% other

I know that there are a lot of pockets of black and Hispanic voters in East Texas, so I wanted to see if it would be possible to make a minority-majority district in East Texas without going into Houston or Dallas at all. So I was able to make a meandering district that picks up minority voters in Galveston, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Huntsville, Lufkin, Longview, Tyler, Texarkana, and Paris. It looks a bit like Cleo Fields’ old district in neighboring Louisiana, although this district emerges at just 33% black. Still, that might be enough to put a black Democrat through the primary and into office, as the entire district is just 44% white overall and many of those white voters are Republicans and wouldn’t vote in the Democratic primary anyway. I made this district before Dave put in the partisan data, so I haven’t calculated the presidential numbers yet, although I imagine that it was probably in the low 50s for McCain, nowhere near as Republican as the current East Texas districts.

So I know that many of these districts are highly theoretical, but I still thought it was an interesting exercise in seeing what is possible and what may even be required by law someday as voting rights law evolves. Let me know what you think of these districts and this subject!