10:24pm: Time to move this party over to a freshly baked thread.
10:24pm: Guess who’s happy in Georgia? Roy Barnes. The GOPers seem possible that they’ll enter into an automatic runoff, with 97% reporting. It’s a 50.5%-49.5% advantage for Nathan Deal.
10:22pm: We’re up to 23% reporting in Minnesota, and things seem to be solidifying: MAK is still in the lead at 46, with Dayton at 36 and Entenza at 17.
10:16pm: No calls yet in CO-03 and CO-07, but Tipton leads McConnell 55-45 and Frazier leads Sias 65-35, not much drama left there.
10:15pm: By contrast, things are spreading a little more in CO-Sen R. Ken Buck now leads 52-48 over Norton.
10:14pm: Uh oh. McInnis has pulled back into the lead in CO-Gov, at least according to the AP. It’s 50-50, with a McInnis lead of 2,000.
10:12pm: Andrew Romanoff has reportedly called Michael Bennet to concede.
10:10pm: Just keep in mind: Georgia has an automatic recount for results within 1%. With 96% reporting, Handel has tightened things a little, to a 50.4%-49.6% race. 4,500 votes separate them.
10:08pm: Here’s a useful tidbit: the AP has called the IP primary in MN-Gov for Tom Horner. I’d heard reports that random GOPers (with no major primary of their own) were thinking of crossing over to sandbag Horner and try to get someone less appealing there, as the center-right Horner seems likelier to spoil things for Emmer than the Dem nominee.
10:07pm: We might also expect a call soon in CT-04 (where Dan Debicella’s at 64%, although only about one-third is reporting) and maybe also CT-05, where 75% is reporting and Caligiuri keeps gaining a little more daylight: he now leads Bernier and Greenberg 41-31-29.
10:03pm: The AP has called the CT-Sen GOP primary for Linda McMahon. She beats Simmons and Schiff 49-29-22. Still not sure I understand Simmons’ gambit, but at this point, it doesn’t matter. Let’s get ready for Blumenthal and McMahon to rumble.
10:01pm: Could Minnesota be another primary that the pollsters all got wrong? With 15% reporting, Margaret Anderson Kelliher is actually adding to her lead. She’s leading the lazy men at 47, with 35 for Dayton and 17 for Entenza.
9:58pm: The AP hasn’t called CO-Sen D, but the Denver Post have, and they probably know their state well. They just called it for Michael Bennet, who will not be joining Bob Bennett in the retirement home.
9:57pm: With ballots going to be counted over the coming days (Washington-style, they’ll count anything with today’s postmark), it may be a while till we know who wins either the R primaries in CO-Gov or CO-Sen. On the Senate side, it’s also Ken Buck 51, Jane Norton 49. For the Dems, it’s Michael Bennet 54, Andrew Romanoff 46.
9:55pm: Switching back to Colorado: it looks like they’re losing a little momentum in the count, as after quickly reaching half they’re only at 56% reporting now statewide. In the Gov GOP primary, Dan Maes still has a 51-49 lead over Scott McInnis.
9:54pm: I know you were on pins and needles about the wingnut-vs-wingnut duel in GA-07. The AP has called it in favor of former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall, 55-45, over Jody Hice.
9:52pm: We’re closing in on done in Georgia. (Apparently the Fulton County website is the one that’s right, and 75% there have reported.) Overall, 93% are in, and we’re still not close to knowing who won GA-Gov R. Deal still leads Handel 51-49, with a 7,000 vote lead out of more than 500K.
9:50pm: In CT-05, Sam Caligiuri is picking up a little speed. He’s at 40, vs. 30 each for Bernier and Greenberg, with about one-third reporting.
9:49pm: I wonder how Rob Simmons would be doing if he hadn’t done the weird Ross Perot-style angry dropout and half-assed return? Although it’s looking like Linda McMahon will win comfortably, Simmons plus Peter Schiff are keeping her below the halfway mark: 48-30-22.
9:47pm: It’ll be a while till we get a call in the GOP gube race in CT. Fedele’s definitely keeping things interesting, having had a late surge of his own. He’s at 37 to Foley’s 43, with 20 for Griebel.
9:45pm: The Hartford Courant is reporting that Ned Lamont has conceded the gubernatorial primary. (Guess who’s heaving a sigh of relief? Joe Lieberman.) And the AP just called the race, too. It’s 58-42 Malloy, with a little less than half reporting.
9:44pm: A little weirdness to note in Fulton County, Georgia. Their county website say they’re reporting 75% in, but they only have a few thousand more votes reported than according to the AP… and the AP says Fulton is only 21% reporting. We’ll have to see how this resolves itself.
9:42pm: We’re up to 2% in in MN-Gov’s DFL primary now, and things have switched here too. Kelliher’s now in the lead at 44, with Dayton at 33 and Kelliher at 22. A lot of Ramsey Co. (St. Paul) votes have come in, and they’re going for MAK by a wide margin.
9:40pm: Sad news for rematch fans. In GA-13 (not an interesting race, except for Base Connect enthusiasts), Deborah “The Defrauder” Honeycutt has lost her GOP runoff. The AP calls it for Mike Crane, 68-32; Crane will face David Scott in this safe Dem district.
9:39pm: There’s also those wee House races in Colorado. In CO-07’s GOP primary, Ryan Frazier seems to have this under control, beating Lang Sias 65-35 with more than half in. And with about a quarter in, Scott Tipton is way ahead of Bob McConnell, 58-42.
9:37pm: Also in Colorado, where we’ve shot past 50% reporting (to 56), things have swapped around in the Senate race. Ken Buck now leads Jane Norton, by a narrow 51-49 (133K to 127K), and Michael Bennet now leads Andrew Romanoff by a more convincing 54-46 (129K to 109K).
9:35pm: As things progress in Colorado, Dan Maes is starting to pull into the lead in the GOP gube primary. He leads Scott McInnis 52-48. That’s extremely good news, as Maes won’t drop out (while McInnis might, allowing a salvageable replacement) and will see this through to the bitter end.
9:32pm: The CT-04 GOP primary isn’t too remarkable (Dan Debicella is at 62% against two Some Dudes), but CT-05 is a three-way barnburner. Sam Caligiuri currently has a small edge, with 20% reporting. He leads Justin Bernier and Mark Greenberg 37-33-30.
9:30pm: Meanwhile, on the GOP side in Connecticut, Tom Foley is keeping his edge; he leads Michael Fedele and Oz Griebel 45-36-19. (Griebel, as the least known but also apparently least objectionable of the three, also seems to be overperforming.)
9:28pm: Dan Malloy is starting to put a little distance between him and Ned Lamont in the Connecticut governor’s Dem primary. Malloy now leads 58-42 with 28% reporting. Looks like Malloy’s way overperforming the polls, although the polls did capture his late surge.
9:25pm: We finally have some numbers in Minnesota, although it’s only a fraction of a percent of precincts reporting, from bellwether Anoka and Dakota Cos. in the MSP suburbs. Mark Dayton is at 43, with Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 36 and Matt Entenza at 20.
9:23pm: Insert Dan Ratherism here about the closeness of the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff. Nathan Deal leads Karen Handel 51-49 with 79% in, with about a 9,000 vote margin out of over 450,000 cast.
9:21pm: Looks like we have a few AP calls down in the Peach State. Tom Graves will get to stay in the House for another two years without having to face Lee Hawkins again; Graves wins GA-09 56-44. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney will get to take his nuclear power plant project management skills to the general election against John Barrow; he defeated Carl Smith 62-38. No call in GA-07 yet, although Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice 55-45 with about two-thirds in.
9:19pm: We’re racking up the numbers pretty quickly in Colorado now. Over in the Governor’s GOP primary, with almost 20% in, McInnis leads Maes by less than 1,000 votes, at 51-49.
9:11pm: Quite a few votes are reporting in Colorado, and Romanoff leads Bennet by 51-49 with 14% of precincts in. Norton leads Buck by 54-46 so far.
9:09pm: We’re at 70% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 237,146 to 229,295.
C’mon baby, let’s go!
RESULTS:
Colorado: Associated Press | Politico
Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico
Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico
Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico
He needs to pick up a few more votes to counter Fulton. I really wish we could get a better read on turnout.
and Deal leads 51-49 again. Handel pulled another 2000 votes out of her ass in Fulton. It’s simply ridiculous, the sheer margin of votes she is getting there. It makes me worry about facing her in the general. Her margin is already up to 9000 votes there.
Deal still has 7000 votes on her overall though…
He had to win large margins in the rural areas, and he’s
racked up only 10,000 votes there. Atlanta has barely begun to report, and Handel’s taking it 70-30. Should be enough for her to get to 52% or so.
I thought Ned Lamont was supposed to win this primary. I never thought Malloy would jump out to such a big lead. Is this a redux of the AL-Gov Dem primary?
Politico has over 40% counted in Fulton but the same number of votes counted as the GA SEc of state. What is going on?
He went from a huge primary lead, to a slight primary lead, now he’s getting blown out of the water.
Woah there, large numbers already in on the D side, 51-49 Romanoff.
District 9 has been called in favor of Tom Graves, and John Barrow’s GOP opponent in the fall will be Ray McKinney
where deal is from is going to save him(it is keeping pace with that fulton lead of handels;fulton is considerly bigger but his margin in hall is overwhelming)
Could we see the SSP labs since most of the votes are already in?
never mind what I said about Colorado reporting slowly.
Considering that only roughly 45,000 people voted in the July primary, and there has been about 22,000 votes already counted there in this primary, I doubt that there are that many votes left to be counted there.
Colorado’s turnout seems to be favoring the Dems. The turnout is about 138K Dems to 103K Republicans.
Haven’t moved their numbers in close to an hour. I’m worried about Cobb, unless their PPR figure is wrong too. Gwinnett is still split about 50-50, which is great if it holds up with 100% reporting.
52.7-47.3
43-31-25 MAK-Dayton-Entenza 0.44% reporting
Deal Handel
CHARLTON 99% 147 147 294
It’s always find results like this to be interesting.
What’s the old saying about a girl you date and a girl you marry. Lamont is the candidate CT voters date, but not the candidate they marry (vote for).
106220 to 99469.
Good news. If McInnis wins he might drop out, which would be bad for us.
I think Deal is going to win in Georgia. Hopefully it’s going to a recount (1% threshold).
I guess I was wrong about Boulder reporting late. It is interesting how all the urban areas in Colorado seem to be reporting quickly while the more rural areas are taking their time. The only two big urban counties not in are Adams and Pueblo. The only smaller counties in are Gilpin, Lake and Conejos.
though Hall County is fully in, a 13,000-vote lead is nothing to sneeze at. even with the outstanding Dekalb and Fulton, Deal has enough areas left that he’ll pull it out.
to pass up an opportunity to create or repeat a Ratherism. Deal/Handel is closer than two mules in a five mule pile-up.
If you know what I mean.
44-33-22 MAK-D-E 9.20% reporting
Bennet has a nearly 20,000 vote lead, and that’s only expanded as more precincts have reported, I just don’t see how Romanoff pulls it off at this point.
With Deal up 11,000 votes with 76% reported, Cobb pretty fully reported, Fulton probably at 40-50% and Handel unlikely to get 11,000 more votes out of Fulton, I think Deal wins.
for the Republicans, anyway. Foley is down to a 43-38 lead.
There were rumors about a lot of Republicans just not voting in the Gov. primary and that seems to be the case. There is a difference of about 30,000 votes between what the Senate primary and Gov. primary are reporting.
Ken Buck is narrowly ahead in Colorado.
MAK 48%
Dayton 35%
Entenza 17%
Almost all votes are from expected MAK strongholds Hennipan and Ramsey Counties
Deal 50.8
Handel 49.2
91% reported
9,000 vote lead for Deal.
De Kalb is almost all in with a 4,500 lead for Handel. Still, Handel should keep hoping in Fulton County which is almost 2/3 in and where she has a 12,000 vote margin. Still, this looks like a Deal win by a few thousand votes. There are still a few outstanding rural counties.
predicts Malloy
Took em long enough, but it’s been called for Rob Woodall in Georgia’s 7th. He’ll face Doug Heckman for the right to replace John Linder.
81% in, Deal up by 7,100 votes
Statewide, turnout is already 77% of what it was in July.
Fulton turnout is over 75% of what it was in JUly. Which makes me think we must be close to done in Fulton.
tightening again. Back to 8,000 vote margin. Handel closing in. Not many pro-Deal areas left to report, (and let’s hope Handel can’t eck many more votes from Atlanta metro).
Its too bad that Colorado does not have Washington’s voting system.
His performance around the state was amazing. Shows what having a strong base like the city of Stamford (pretty admired by the thousands of CT suburbanites who work there) can do statewide.
I think Lamont may have faced backlash from 2006 in the city of West Haven, a pretty conservative blue collar Italian-Catholic dominated city that fits well with Joe Lieberman (he’s losing it 80-20)
We have the maps AND we are ahead in the number of precincts in.
with about a quarter of Cobb and Fulton outstanding. Still think he narrowly wins.
we are within recount territory.
With 93% in, Georgia is still leaving me hanging with a 7,000 vote margin for Deal, a 14,000 vote margin for Handel in Fulton with 75% in. Extrapolating, this gives Handel an extra 4,000 vote margin. There are still rural areas to report but Cobb County is not fully in either.
Who will win? Stay tuned…
His vote margin is over 20K now, and widening. Romanoff isn’t doing nearly well enough in Denver and Boulder to make that up.
except for Connecticut, totally blew that. I appear to have hit the GA-Gov margin pretty close, and predicted that Woodall and Graves would win.
Colorado seems to be going my way too.
All ballots, except military ballots, had to be turned in today by 7:00pm local time. Any ballot, even if it’s postmarked today, turned in after the 7pm deadline can’t be counted. The only thing that can be counted later are military ballots, which have 8 days after today to be counted.
MAK is out to a nice lead Dayton should narrow it when the non metro areas repoort
tightening…down to Maes up by just 2000 some votes. 61% reporting.
WTF happened to lamont?
Dayton is probably going to be making up a lot of ground once all the rural counties start reporting.
For those who don’t know Minnesota, after Minneapolis and St. Paul, there’s a 3rd VERY DFL stronghold: St. Louis County, where Duluth is located.
I don’t know who’s the favorite there, but before anyone calls this race, you have to let St. Louis County (and the other parts of the Iron Range, i.e. northeastern Minnesota).
Is now fully in. 61%-39% for Handel and a lead of 4,600 votes.
Don’t give EMILY’s List even more encouragement to tweet sexist messages.
50.4 to 49.6 with about 64% reporting.
It does look good for McInnis. He was the representative of the 3rd district in western Colorado. Most of that has not reported yet. Maes is doing well in the urban areas which are mostly in. Maes’s areas are not fully in but McInnis’s areas have some reporting to do.
Barnes puts out a “Deal or no Deal” ad. Kind of surprised the geniuses at Team Oxendine didn’t come up with such an ad.
AP 50% in: Maes 288 McInnis 0
To move to another thread.
I think maybe from Gwinnett, actually. Anyway his lead was falling towards 4,000 but is back up above 5k.
May not go as strongly for Dayton as I thought. MAK is leading in a few rural counties like Blue Earth and Yellow Medicine.
Margaret Anderson Kelliher?
Is there a reason why her demographics would be underpolled?
Dayton still turn it around? I am rooting for him. I really do not like MAK. I do not know her but by everything I have found by researching her shows that she does not seem like the best Speaker and when I heard heard speak it was like uhh…. Yawn….
So this is going to be the third cycle in a row in which the Colorado GOP will be creamed?
CO-SEN
Bennet performed quite well accross the state, has a moderate image, tons of money and is polling relatively well for an incumbent.
Meanwhile, it looks like the GOP will be stuck with tea-bagger Ken Buck, as he’s looking to pull away.
CO-GOV
Hickenlooper is the dream candiate for Dems and before Governor Ritter dropped out, I was fretting that he had no place to go because Dems occupied both senate seats. But now, he’s all set because Tancredo’s 3rd party bid guarantees his victory.
Plus, there’s the fantastically comical Maes-McInnis show.
McInnis is hopelessly damaged and the rumor is that if he wins, the establishment would be able to convince him to drop out and be replaced with a better candidate(possibly by Jane Norton).
Maes, meanwhile, is a gadfly that makes Sharon Angle seem experienced and electable…and there’s no way he’ll drop out if he wins the primary.
If the Maes-McInnis race goes into recount territory with Maes slightly in the lead, its going to be hilarious to see the GOP establishment try to prop up the corpse of the McInnis campaign just enough so that it can preserve the nomination from Maes and then bestow it to someone else in the hopes of preventing a total statewide electoral meltdown.
I’m glad it bizarrely requires automatic recounts within 1%, which seems a bit too large to me but whatever. I think in the end he gets a recount-proof margin. But Karen Handel, if you’re reading this, you still have a chance, so don’t forgo the recount or anything silly like that 😉
Given Deal’s surprising win in Gwinnett, does this hurt/help Barnes in the general. I know its a populous county that will be hard fought, but should we be worried that Deal was able to win Gwinnett after losing it to Handel by 9,000 votes in July?
Handel ended gaining a whooping 5 votes out of 10,000 cast in Paulding. Now it’s just one pro-Deal rural county, plus what’s left in Fulton Gwinnett.