4:19am: One last update from beyond the grave: Dan Maes wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination — joyous news for Democrats everywhere. The final margin, according to the AP, was 50.7% Maes, 49.3% McInnis.
3:17am: The SSP news team is calling it a night. Hopefully we wake up tomorrow to find Dan Maes as the GOP nominee in Colorado and Karen Handel and Nathan Deal locked in a drawn-out recount battle. (One is allowed to dream, right?)
2:48am: Deep Thought: Have Colorado’s ballot-counters been kidnapped by the UN’s armada of black helicopters? We may never know…
2:47am: We’re now at 94.2% reporting, and Dan Maes by just shy of 5200 votes. Come on, you whacko, let’s blow this thing and go home!
1:37am: With 91% reporting, Dan Maes in CO-Gov has a lead just shy of 4,000 votes. By the way, somewhere along the way, the AP finally called CO-03’s GOP primary for Scott Tipton (56-44), not that you were probably agonizing over that one.
1:33am: Ah, now the AP has made it official on their own site. Dayton will face Tom Emmer (and IP nominee Tom Horner) in November, in a pretty interesting political second act.
1:30am: While the AP’s site itself doesn’t have the red check mark, Politico is saying that the AP has called MN-Gov for Mark Dayton. (Looks like they can do the same math, regarding Duluth, that I can.) 95% are reporting, and Dayton has moved into a 4,000 vote margin (still 41-40), with 135/178 of St. Louis now reported.
1:25am: Things are pretty stable for Dan Maes in CO-Gov, with 90% reporting. Maes leads 50.5%-49.5%, outside auto-recount territory. He has an almost 4,000 vote margin. That’s with all of Denver having reported, and the outstanding precincts coming in Maes-friendly counties like El Paso and Douglas.
1:20am: Apparently auto-recount territory in Minnesota is also one-half of one percent. Dayton is at 40.8%, while Kelliher has 40.3%. So we’re literally right on the cusp. (Although if things keep going for Dayton, he’ll soon be out of the zone.)
1:17am: Now things are really moving in Dayton’s direction. He’s up to a 1,000 vote margin, with 94% reporting. St. Louis is at 100/178 now, which is pushing things for Dayton.
1:10am: Mark Dayton has moved into the lead in MN-Gov. Just barely… it’s 41-40 in his favor now, with a 400-vote margin. But that seems likely to increase, with St. Louis still with only 68 of 178 reporting. That’s with 91% reporting overall. Seems to be mostly rural counties filling in the gap, so Duluth will be the icing on Dayton’s cake.
12:44am: Also regarding CO-Gov, the only counties that were really keeping McInnis in this at all were the ones in his old CO-03, like Mesa (72-28 McInnis) and Pueblo (53-47 McInnis). Denver is 51-49 McInnis and all the other suburban/exurban counties are going for Maes. Mesa (Grand Jct.) and Pueblo are done reporting, while there are still lots of outstanding precincts in El Paso, Arapahoe and Jefferson (suburbs), Douglas (exurbs), and Larimer (Ft. Collins): all Maes counties.
12:40am: Via the twittermajig, Jennifer Duffy points out two helpful things: one, the recount level in Colorado is one-half of one percent. Right now, Maes is up, believe it or not, 50.26%-49.74%, so he’s just outside that zone. (That’s with 79% reporting.) Second, though, she points out that he’s expected to run strongest in El Paso County (Colorado Spgs.), where there are still a couple hundred precincts outstanding, so it’s looking more like Maes will win this thing recount-free.
12:34am: Things are verrry slowly converging in Minnesota. 87% are reporting now, and it’s 41-40, MAK over Dayton, but that’s with only a 600 vote lead. And St. Louis still hasn’t added any more precincts! Most of the new votes seem to have come in from Stearns Co (St. Cloud), where Dayton leads 42-34.
12:23am: Go, crazy bike-hating campaign-finance-law-violating guy! Dan Maes, with 78% in now, has padded his advantage, up to a 1,600 vote lead over plagiarist Scott McInnis. I’m not familiar with Colorado recount law, but that’s a 50.2%-49.8% advantage.
12:17am: Sifting over Minnesota results with a fine-toothed comb, it looks like Beltrami Co. (Bemidji) is the second biggest clot of outstanding precincts. (7 of 62 have reported.) Dayton has a narrower edge there, 41-38. There’s also some smaller counties (Pine, Pope, Roseau) that haven’t reported anything (all of which have 40-some precincts, all of which are rural counties… again, not that there’s a clear pattern among the rural counties, but the general trend in such counties seems to favor Dayton.
12:12am: Actually, I take that back, I am sensing a pattern. The biggest clot of outstanding votes are in St. Louis County (Duluth and the Iron Range), where only 49 of 178 have reported. Hennepin and Ramsey (the Twin Cities) are done reporting. Dayton seems to have an advantage in St. Louis, seeing as how he was previously elected statewide, whereas MAK has a small Twin Cities constituency. Dayton’s winning 54-30 in St. Louis, so if he can keep those numbers up, he might actually pull this out in the end.
12:10am: Things are very close in Minnesota now, with 81% reporting. MAK leads Dayton 41-40, with Entenza at 18. It’s less than a 4,000 vote lead for Kelliher, out of about 375,000. I can’t discern a pattern among the counties… Kelliher and Dayton are both from the Twin Cities… so it’s hard to see how much of a trend is at work here.
12:02am: Rocky Mountain high? Looks like they may be taking a ganja break in Colorado, where the needle’s been stuck on 75% reporting for a while. Dan Maes still has about a 1,200 vote lead over Scott McInnis.
11:39pm: OK, now the AP has called it for Ken Buck, for those of you keeping close score at home.
11:37pm: Things are staying fairly stable but close in Minnesota. With 67% reporting, it’s MAK 42, Dayton 39, Entenza 18. It’ll be a while till we know what’s what here.
11:36pm: And the GOP gubernatorial primary in Colorado keeps puttering along, at 50-50 with Maes currently up by 1,050.
11:35pm: In Colorado, various twitterers are saying Ken Buck has won, but the AP hasn’t graced us with a red checkmark yet. He’s up 52-48 with 76% reporting, though, so it looks pretty locked in. Kind of a faceplant for John McCain, who extended a lot of political capital to ally Norton the last few weeks.
11:20pm: 75% in in Colorado. Things are looking slightly better for Dan Maes, or better yet, for a protracted recount that ends with a Maes win. It’s 50-50 with a 1,300 lead for Maes.
11:16pm: Wow, things are definitely tightening in MN-Gov. It’s now 42 MAK, 39 Dayton, 18 Entenza. That’s with 55% reporting. Nate Silver just tweeted that he sees this coming down to a few thousand votes. (Currently Kelliher’s lead is about 10,000.)
11:12pm: 2897 out of 2898 precincts have reported in Georgia. I think that’s about as complete as we’re going to get… and no call from the AP. Deal leads 291,713 to 289,353. Karen Handel had better hope there are 2,500 Handel votes in that last precinct. That’s 50.2%-49.8% for Deal, so we are pretty certainly heading for a recount.
11:10pm: Somewhere along the way, the AP called the CO-07 GOP primary for Ryan Frazier, 65-35. He’ll face Ed Perlmutter in an uphill fight in November.
11:08pm: Although 52-48 qualifies as a close race, it’s pretty mundane compared with the excitement in GA-Gov and CO-Gov. Ken Buck leads Jane Norton by 4%, or by 10,000 votes.
11:06pm: Let’s take one more look at Colorado. In the Gov GOP primary, it’s Dan Maes up by only about 500 votes, at 50-50. Could we possibly see two recounts between GOPers? Best possible outcome, recount followed by Maes victory, and him fighting to bitter end. 73% are reporting.
10:52pm: MAK now leads Dayton by 43-38 with 42% in.
10:48pm: Irish eyes are smiling (I guess) — Tom Foley has won the GOP gube nomination in Connecticut.
10:44pm: We’re up to 99.4% reporting in GA-Gov. Deal leads by 3,500 — or 0.6% of the vote. We’re definitely in the recount zone here.
10:42pm: It’s worth noting that Taryl Clark is only getting 65% of the vote against Maureen Reed. Perhaps some Reed supporters didn’t hear the news that she dropped out of the race two months ago.
10:38pm: MAK’s lead over Mark Dayton has fallen even further, to 44-38 with 32% reporting.
10:37pm: With 67% in, Ken Buck is now up over Jane Norton by nearly ten grand. Maes still leads McInnis by one g.
10:33pm: The AP went on a binge in Connecticut, calling CT-02 for ex-TV anchor Janet Pecinpaugh, CT-04 for Dan Debicella, and CT-05 for Sam Caligiuri. The Republican gubernatorial primary is still un-called, with Tom Foley leading Michael Fedele by 43-38 (74% of the vote in).
10:30pm: Over in Minnesota, the Dem gube primary is narrowing slightly — MAK leads Dayton by 45-37 with 28% in.
10:27pm: Bicyclists beware, Dan Maes is back up in the GOP CO-Gov primary. He leads McInnis by 1000 votes with 65% reporting.
RESULTS:
Colorado: Associated Press | Politico
Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico
Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico
Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico
It is narrowing while Hennepin and Ramsey are almost completely in. Kelliher is leading by 8 points. The votes are 26% in so there can still be a big change in the percentages.
counties are Deal; 4 are Handel
MAK’s lead narrows to 7 points and dropping.
Democrats usually win these races, so unless the Teabaggers somehow get witch-burning legalized again to root out those liberals there’s not much drama, but here are some highlights from the races on the the Dem side:
Nancy Wyman won the Lt. Gov. nod, actually outpacing her partner Malloy winning 2-1. She’s been a good team player for years, so good for her.
Lieberdem, hirer of ex-felon and ex-Gov. John Rowland, Teabagger curious, and overall major league asshole Mike Jarjura, the mayor of the pleasant city of Waterbury, lost big time in the comptroller race, 71-29 to a guy named Kevin Lembo.
Unfortunately, Gerry Garcia lost the Sec. of State nod to Denise Merrill to take the office held by the naive Susan Bysiewicz. It’s too bad, because after reading his bio and learning he’s half Puerto Rican and half Jewish, I can say he seems like a real mensch.
Maes lead is down to just a couple hundred votes. This is going to be extremely close, and the difference between getting Maes and getting some guy chosen by the GOP central committee.
predicted for CT-GOV
Still only 60% in from the 3rd CD which should be good for McInnis.
Elbert County, a medium-sized exurban county has nothing reporting and should be strong for Maes…El Paso County has also given Maes good margins and McInnis didn’t win Pueblo by much, even though it was in his old CD.
Regional bases were key to the GOP primaries. Buck did fabulously in his home base in Weld and Larimer counties and did marginally better than Norton throughout the state.
The Governor’s race saw Maes do marginally better throughout the state but McInnis dominating in his Western Slope regional base, making for a very even Governor contest.
Anyway, I’d like to see Hillary-Hickenlooper 2016!
only 6 of 178 precincts in St Louis County in but in those precincts Dayton leads 60-26. This race will narrow considerably and I predict a Dayton win.
And congrats to Bennet. Let’s hope he faces Buck.
nt
I don’t really have anything against MAK, but I just don’t want to see EMILY’S List crowing about winning this, I’m still furious with them over 2008.
but it’s 99.4% in and Deal still leads by over 3,000. I have no idea why I’m following this race since it’s obviously a Deal victory barring widespread irregularities but whatever.
Colorado: 35 votes cast in the Republican primary
something weird happened on the mn sos. vote totals dropped by about 7000 for both MAK and Dayton.
In GA and CO,
but at I still have Foley 🙂
a Foley vs. Malloy match up. This is going to be interesting. Malloy is taking public financing I believe while Foley is self funding. But Foley does have some skeletons in the closet that Fedele revealed days before the election. I guess Malloy can portray Fedele as another crooked corporate CEO after helping bankrupt a textile company down in Georgia.
Don’t let the Old Boy’s Network and that crook Nathan Deal steal the election from you. Any self respecting Mama Grizzley would demand a recount! And not one of those easy-to-fix machine recounts. Demand a hand recount. A slow and careful one. Maybe Erick Erickson can help you pay for it.
The vote totals trend toward Dayton should get faster the more counties report. The southern rural areas are more mixed but the further north you go, the larger the margin is for Dayton. St. Louis County still has many votes to report and it could be a 20,000 vote margin for Dayton looking at the current results. This would be enough for him to win.
For delivering to Georgia Republicans a clusterfuck of a gubernatorial primary.
should be celebrating tonight.
in Georgia according to local reports. This has potential to tighten some more.
Two Democrats and three Republicans (including one who had previously cheated on his wife with his mother-in-law).
with some room to spare.
The count is:
Deal 50.2% 292,007 votes
Handel 49.8% 289,567 votes
while the suburbs of Denver seem to be splitting geographically; the northern ones are going heavily for Buck, and Norton is narrowly winning the Southern ones. Portends well for Bennett in November.
Local Fox Affiliate called the election for him, for whatever that’s worth.
38.33-39.71-21.31 MAK-Dayton-Entenza. I have an excel spreadsheet gooing just for fun.
Large precincts should heavily favor Dayton.
has MN-Gov down to a 9,000 vote margin (42-39), but the MN SoS office shows an 11,000 vote margin (42.5-38). Which one is the right one?
His name is John Gunyou. It’s too bad he’s a Dem. His name is perfect for those teabaggers who hate those who don’t vote their way. Vote for John or he’ll “Gunyou!”
to SSP Labs?
What a total burnout for Ned Lamont, the darling of the netroots. So he’s lost twice now (to Lieberman, and to this guy Malloy). Is there any hope for this guy politically?
Leads by 2 points with 2/3 of the vote in. Also, St. Louis County is 21% in.
but former Alaska senator Ted Stevens died yesterday in a plane crash.
http://www.google.com/hostedne…
I just want to offer my opinions on the races before I go.
The race in Colorado will be exteremly close but I think Maes will pull through. Many of McInnis’s old district’s counties have fully reported. Also, the Denver metropolition area is reporting at the statewide average now. Maes is leading there although by small margins.
In Minnesota, it should be another nailbiter but I see a Dayton win. He should get the push from the Iron Range and he should be able to hold a small lead in southern rural Minnesota. Also, I do not think Ramsey and Hennepin are fully in so you should watch those counties.
a Foley Wilson-Foley ticket would have been golden (and we missed it by 4%).
MAK 41% (150,764)- Dayton 40% (144,705) 2992 of 4136 precincts reporting. Duluth (St Louis County) precincts still have not reported.
That Republicans still suck. They never seem to nominate their most electable candidate, just a bunch of wackos. Ha ha.
InsiderAdvantage (Georgia-based pollster) had Handel and Deal tied, while the other random-ass pollster whose name I forget had a 2 point lead for Deal, I believe, within the MoE. Mason-Dixon, normally a good pollster, dropped the ball a bit.
though GOP not having competitive race in Minnesota certainly helped.
it’s clear now the margin there will be more than enough for Dayton to move into the lead.
It’s hard to see how he doesn’t win by a non-recount margin.
Colorado has a tight race between a plagiarist and weak candidate, they also nominated a Senate candidate who has made missteps. Georgia had a race that hasn’t been called yet and even when it is, the nominee will not have closed the deal decisively. Definitely not a good primary night.
The headline on the AT&T Yahoo! front page is this:
Burned!
In somewhat of an upset Shelly Madore beat DFL endorsed Dan Powers 55-45. She will have an uphill climb to beat John Kline in November.
MAK 41% 159,407
Dayton 40% 155,682
3331/4136 precincts reporting
Most precincts in Duluth still have not reported
Although Norton was the “establishment” candidate, she was unbelievably unpolished: a dreadful, deer-eyed speaker who had a tendency to mouth off and say really stupid things.
Buck is actually a very smart guy and he comes across as a lot more polished, right-wing as he is. I worry he could be tougher to beat.
In MN, MAK is winning, in addition to the Twin Cities proper(Hennepin and Ramsey), quite a few of the mid-sized university cities; Blue Earth county(Mankato) was mentioned already, as well as Winona county, Rice County (Northfield, home to both St. Olaf and Carelton), Nicollet (St.Peter, home to Gustavus Adolphus). Most of these are in Southern Minnesota (is that a Kelliher stronghold?), but I noticed that in my hometown of Moorhead, she’s doing well there also, even though the surrounding counties seem to be going for Dayton.
Coincidence, or is Kelliher’s campaign just very good at reaching out to the college communities? I’m currently a ND resident so I haven’t noticed either way. And could this factor into St. Louis county, home of UW-Duluth?
(BTW, I did find lots of counterexamples too; this is a very loose theory I came up with.)
Where Buck and Norton are both tied at 17 votes, with the only precinct fully reporting. Also, there are some big counties that are less than halfway in that are going hard for Norton. This could tighten, even though I know its very, very unlikely she still pulls it out and AP has to retract their call 🙁
Maes and Dayton should pull away. Don’t think either will be in nailbiter territory in the end.
Pretty much everything from the Twin Cities south is in. Almost all the outstanding votes are in Northern Minnesota where Dayton is preforming well.
BTW the Iron Range always reports last in Minnesota. Not sure why that is but it has been that way for years.
MAK 162,857 – 41%
Dayton 161,460 – 40%
3562/4136 precincts reporting
St. Louis County (most outstanding precincts in Duluth)
50/178 Precincts reporting
MAK 4,358 – 30%
Dayton 7,823 – 54%
It’s over, Dayton’s going to win.
Is clearly trying to get somewhere in CO politics. She is falling all over Ken Buck now in endorsing him. She wants him on her side. Maybe the UN will kidnapp Maes next time he’s out riding his bike.
Two outstanding precints are heavy MAK; the rest are basically heavily Dayton. Expect him to win easier than you’d think.
The night is young. Only 9:47 pm here.
Jane Norton raised 100k yesterday, which was obviously too late to use in the primary. So, I have two questions:
1. How much of that can she donate to Buck
2. Can she transfer it to a possible Gov run?
St Louis County is at 38%
400 votes ahead of MAK and still the majority of St. Louis County are outstanding.
I was looking at the Mpls and St Paul newspaper websites for some of the political results from my birth state (and where pretty much my whole family still lives), and ran across a remarkable story from St. Paul. Ten years ago a woman named Rena Moran was living in a homeless shelter with her children. She pulled her life together, became a community activist, and tonight upset the establishment backed candidate in the DFL primary for a state house seat.
This is in a very race and class-diverse central city area (which includes the neighborhood my mother was born and raised in), and is a completely safe DFL seat — and Ms. Moran will become the first African American St Paul has ever sent to the legislature.
Stories like this make politics really cool at times!!
All the remaining precincts are in suburban counties voting for Maes. It’s close, but its done. Congratulations Governor Hickenlooper.
I have no idea why they haven’t called it yet, it was obvious even before he took the lead that Dayton was going to win in the end.
n/t
CO-GOV and MN-GOV look Likely D now.
GOP primary for GA-GOV gave us all we could ask for and more. I hope Deal holds on because Handel’s popularity in A-town is scary. Barnes has a great chance if Deal is the nominee, although I’d still call it a toss-up.
For CO-SEN I’m not sure which Dem was the better option but at least Bennet has proven his ability to raise money. Buck was the GOP’s weaker candidate.
I never liked Lamont in CT-GOV. Would have probably preferred Malloy-Fedele, but I’ll take what we got.
CT-SEN was a foregone conclusion on the GOP side.
Not too worried about any of the House seats that had seriously contested primaries tonight. Barrow and Salazar have already seriously beaten down their opponents in the past. Himes and Murphy should win in CT.
Good night for the Dems after the GOP had a good night in TN last Thursday.
and there it is
and there it is
I went over to see what Erick Erickson was saying tonight. The frontpage entry is him more-or-less claiming individual credit for Buck winning in Colorado (and then 50 or so comments of people telling him how brilliant he is).
What does he say about what happened to Karen Handel and the potential mess in his home state? (Insert sound of crickets chirping here).
just spoke to the press and supporters but DIDNT concede. thats strange, i dont see how she pulls this out now.
Senate primary: 396,529
Gov primary: 377,610
Thats a difference of 18,919 votes. I the gov race, 3 fewer precincts are reporting. So, lets consider an average of 77 votes per precinct (Sen numbers), and our difference is around 18,688 people skipped the governors race and voted in the sen race. Thats a pretty big number. I wonder what the result would have been if they had voted?
Not suprisingly, in the GOP primary for St. Senate seat number 12, incumbent Paul Koening went down in defeat. Why is this not suprising? He’s an openly gay Republican, who in recent weeks admitted to dating a porn star. He’d actually been reelected once since coming out, so this loss wasn’t a reflection on his sexuality, most likely it was a result of his dating choices.
In a move worthy of George W. Bush (circa 2000), Maes has already declared victory over McInnis.
Republicans are completely screwed for redistricting. The Colorado system is a little weird–it’s an 11-member commission that must get its plan approved by the state Supreme Court. It’s made up of four legislative appointees (one from each party & house, so 2 Ds & 2 Rs), three gubernatorial appointees (3 Ds, presumably) and then 4 that are appointed by the Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court.
The current Chief Justice, Mary Mullarkey, is stepping down, but she’s basically singularly responsible for Colorado’s blue-tinted delegation. She not only appointed Democrats for all her choices on the commission in 2002 (then-Gov. Owens had appointed 3 Rs), she also blocked a Rove-led Republican attempt to gerrymander the map in 2004, joining the court’s 4 other Dem appointees in 5-2 decision.
Source: http://www.coloradojudicialper…
The justices vote among themselves to choose a chief, but with a 5-2 advantage, one of the two Republicans won’t get the position. 2 Ds and 1 R are up for retention votes this cycle, but even if they lose, their successors will be appointed by Gov. Hickenlooper. So Democrats will control the panel and should be able to pass any plan they come up with through a sympathetic state Supreme Court. Even if Betsy Markey loses in 2010, she’ll be back in a friendlier district in 2012. Sweeeeeet, thanks, Colorado Republicans!
Since I think the daily digest is just about dead:
I posted in yesterday’s digest tha Sen. Tim Johnson was in the hospital with a fever. He is now recovering from gallbladder surgery. Everything appears to be going well. http://www.washingtonexaminer….
Generally – very good night for Democrats, one of the best this cycle
1. Democrats nominated, probably, the best candidates in all major races: Malloy in Connecticut (i always despised Lamont after his dismal general election campaign in 2006), Bennet (and Hickenlooper) in Colorado, and Dayton in Minnesota. Malloy is now clearly favored over bruised Foley (probably – more then Blumenthal over McMahon), Bennet – over Buck (though this race will be substantially more difficult), Hickenlooper – over Maes (if he wins, what’s likely). Especially – against Maes because it’s almost guarantees that Tancredo will stay in the race. Dayton polled better then anybody else against Emmer.
2. Republicans, on the contrary, nominated either far-right wingers (Maes, Emmer, (not sure about Buck, i read different characteristics of him)), or candidates bruised by close primary (Foley) or both (probably – Deal in Georgia, where close race and recount clearly plays in Barnes favor)
Sadly, Idusogie got thrashed in MN-Gov, but at least Peckinpaugh in CT-02 will get to see the light of day. She’ll get her ass kicked by Joe Courtney, but at least people can look at the ballot and be like, Peckinpaugh, what a lulzy name.
Rasmussen had Malloy beating Foley 44-35 in their last poll of Connecticut (back in June). Anyone care to guess how ridiculous the primary bounce will be?
Also, chalk up another pathetic showing by Joe Abbey, Creigh Deeds’ campaign manager who led Lamont’s campaign.