Tag: 2010 Primaries

4:19am: One last update from beyond the grave: Dan Maes wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination — joyous news for Democrats everywhere. The final margin, according to the AP, was 50.7% Maes, 49.3% McInnis.

3:17am: The SSP news team is calling it a night. Hopefully we wake up tomorrow to find Dan Maes as the GOP nominee in Colorado and Karen Handel and Nathan Deal locked in a drawn-out recount battle. (One is allowed to dream, right?)

2:48am: Deep Thought: Have Colorado’s ballot-counters been kidnapped by the UN’s armada of black helicopters? We may never know…

2:47am: We’re now at 94.2% reporting, and Dan Maes by just shy of 5200 votes. Come on, you whacko, let’s blow this thing and go home!

1:37am: With 91% reporting, Dan Maes in CO-Gov has a lead just shy of 4,000 votes. By the way, somewhere along the way, the AP finally called CO-03’s GOP primary for Scott Tipton (56-44), not that you were probably agonizing over that one.

1:33am: Ah, now the AP has made it official on their own site. Dayton will face Tom Emmer (and IP nominee Tom Horner) in November, in a pretty interesting political second act.

1:30am: While the AP’s site itself doesn’t have the red check mark, Politico is saying that the AP has called MN-Gov for Mark Dayton. (Looks like they can do the same math, regarding Duluth, that I can.) 95% are reporting, and Dayton has moved into a 4,000 vote margin (still 41-40), with 135/178 of St. Louis now reported.

1:25am: Things are pretty stable for Dan Maes in CO-Gov, with 90% reporting. Maes leads 50.5%-49.5%, outside auto-recount territory. He has an almost 4,000 vote margin. That’s with all of Denver having reported, and the outstanding precincts coming in Maes-friendly counties like El Paso and Douglas.

1:20am: Apparently auto-recount territory in Minnesota is also one-half of one percent. Dayton is at 40.8%, while Kelliher has 40.3%. So we’re literally right on the cusp. (Although if things keep going for Dayton, he’ll soon be out of the zone.)

1:17am: Now things are really moving in Dayton’s direction. He’s up to a 1,000 vote margin, with 94% reporting. St. Louis is at 100/178 now, which is pushing things for Dayton.

1:10am: Mark Dayton has moved into the lead in MN-Gov. Just barely… it’s 41-40 in his favor now, with a 400-vote margin. But that seems likely to increase, with St. Louis still with only 68 of 178 reporting. That’s with 91% reporting overall. Seems to be mostly rural counties filling in the gap, so Duluth will be the icing on Dayton’s cake.

12:44am: Also regarding CO-Gov, the only counties that were really keeping McInnis in this at all were the ones in his old CO-03, like Mesa (72-28 McInnis) and Pueblo (53-47 McInnis). Denver is 51-49 McInnis and all the other suburban/exurban counties are going for Maes. Mesa (Grand Jct.) and Pueblo are done reporting, while there are still lots of outstanding precincts in El Paso, Arapahoe and Jefferson (suburbs), Douglas (exurbs), and Larimer (Ft. Collins): all Maes counties.

12:40am: Via the twittermajig, Jennifer Duffy points out two helpful things: one, the recount level in Colorado is one-half of one percent. Right now, Maes is up, believe it or not, 50.26%-49.74%, so he’s just outside that zone. (That’s with 79% reporting.) Second, though, she points out that he’s expected to run strongest in El Paso County (Colorado Spgs.), where there are still a couple hundred precincts outstanding, so it’s looking more like Maes will win this thing recount-free.

12:34am: Things are verrry slowly converging in Minnesota. 87% are reporting now, and it’s 41-40, MAK over Dayton, but that’s with only a 600 vote lead. And St. Louis still hasn’t added any more precincts! Most of the new votes seem to have come in from Stearns Co (St. Cloud), where Dayton leads 42-34.

12:23am: Go, crazy bike-hating campaign-finance-law-violating guy! Dan Maes, with 78% in now, has padded his advantage, up to a 1,600 vote lead over plagiarist Scott McInnis. I’m not familiar with Colorado recount law, but that’s a 50.2%-49.8% advantage.

12:17am: Sifting over Minnesota results with a fine-toothed comb, it looks like Beltrami Co. (Bemidji) is the second biggest clot of outstanding precincts. (7 of 62 have reported.) Dayton has a narrower edge there, 41-38. There’s also some smaller counties (Pine, Pope, Roseau) that haven’t reported anything (all of which have 40-some precincts, all of which are rural counties… again, not that there’s a clear pattern among the rural counties, but the general trend in such counties seems to favor Dayton.

12:12am: Actually, I take that back, I am sensing a pattern. The biggest clot of outstanding votes are in St. Louis County (Duluth and the Iron Range), where only 49 of 178 have reported. Hennepin and Ramsey (the Twin Cities) are done reporting. Dayton seems to have an advantage in St. Louis, seeing as how he was previously elected statewide, whereas MAK has a small Twin Cities constituency. Dayton’s winning 54-30 in St. Louis, so if he can keep those numbers up, he might actually pull this out in the end.

12:10am: Things are very close in Minnesota now, with 81% reporting. MAK leads Dayton 41-40, with Entenza at 18. It’s less than a 4,000 vote lead for Kelliher, out of about 375,000. I can’t discern a pattern among the counties… Kelliher and Dayton are both from the Twin Cities… so it’s hard to see how much of a trend is at work here.

12:02am: Rocky Mountain high? Looks like they may be taking a ganja break in Colorado, where the needle’s been stuck on 75% reporting for a while. Dan Maes still has about a 1,200 vote lead over Scott McInnis.

11:39pm: OK, now the AP has called it for Ken Buck, for those of you keeping close score at home.

11:37pm: Things are staying fairly stable but close in Minnesota. With 67% reporting, it’s MAK 42, Dayton 39, Entenza 18. It’ll be a while till we know what’s what here.

11:36pm: And the GOP gubernatorial primary in Colorado keeps puttering along, at 50-50 with Maes currently up by 1,050.

11:35pm: In Colorado, various twitterers are saying Ken Buck has won, but the AP hasn’t graced us with a red checkmark yet. He’s up 52-48 with 76% reporting, though, so it looks pretty locked in. Kind of a faceplant for John McCain, who extended a lot of political capital to ally Norton the last few weeks.

11:20pm: 75% in in Colorado. Things are looking slightly better for Dan Maes, or better yet, for a protracted recount that ends with a Maes win. It’s 50-50 with a 1,300 lead for Maes.

11:16pm: Wow, things are definitely tightening in MN-Gov. It’s now 42 MAK, 39 Dayton, 18 Entenza. That’s with 55% reporting. Nate Silver just tweeted that he sees this coming down to a few thousand votes. (Currently Kelliher’s lead is about 10,000.)

11:12pm: 2897 out of 2898 precincts have reported in Georgia. I think that’s about as complete as we’re going to get… and no call from the AP. Deal leads 291,713 to 289,353. Karen Handel had better hope there are 2,500 Handel votes in that last precinct. That’s 50.2%-49.8% for Deal, so we are pretty certainly heading for a recount.

11:10pm: Somewhere along the way, the AP called the CO-07 GOP primary for Ryan Frazier, 65-35. He’ll face Ed Perlmutter in an uphill fight in November.

11:08pm: Although 52-48 qualifies as a close race, it’s pretty mundane compared with the excitement in GA-Gov and CO-Gov. Ken Buck leads Jane Norton by 4%, or by 10,000 votes.

11:06pm: Let’s take one more look at Colorado. In the Gov GOP primary, it’s Dan Maes up by only about 500 votes, at 50-50. Could we possibly see two recounts between GOPers? Best possible outcome, recount followed by Maes victory, and him fighting to bitter end. 73% are reporting.

10:52pm: MAK now leads Dayton by 43-38 with 42% in.

10:48pm: Irish eyes are smiling (I guess) — Tom Foley has won the GOP gube nomination in Connecticut.

10:44pm: We’re up to 99.4% reporting in GA-Gov. Deal leads by 3,500 — or 0.6% of the vote. We’re definitely in the recount zone here.

10:42pm: It’s worth noting that Taryl Clark is only getting 65% of the vote against Maureen Reed. Perhaps some Reed supporters didn’t hear the news that she dropped out of the race two months ago.

10:38pm: MAK’s lead over Mark Dayton has fallen even further, to 44-38 with 32% reporting.

10:37pm: With 67% in, Ken Buck is now up over Jane Norton by nearly ten grand. Maes still leads McInnis by one g.

10:33pm: The AP went on a binge in Connecticut, calling CT-02 for ex-TV anchor Janet Pecinpaugh, CT-04 for Dan Debicella, and CT-05 for Sam Caligiuri. The Republican gubernatorial primary is still un-called, with Tom Foley leading Michael Fedele by 43-38 (74% of the vote in).

10:30pm: Over in Minnesota, the Dem gube primary is narrowing slightly — MAK leads Dayton by 45-37 with 28% in.

10:27pm: Bicyclists beware, Dan Maes is back up in the GOP CO-Gov primary. He leads McInnis by 1000 votes with 65% reporting.

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RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

10:24pm: Time to move this party over to a freshly baked thread.

10:24pm: Guess who’s happy in Georgia? Roy Barnes. The GOPers seem possible that they’ll enter into an automatic runoff, with 97% reporting. It’s a 50.5%-49.5% advantage for Nathan Deal.

10:22pm: We’re up to 23% reporting in Minnesota, and things seem to be solidifying: MAK is still in the lead at 46, with Dayton at 36 and Entenza at 17.

10:16pm: No calls yet in CO-03 and CO-07, but Tipton leads McConnell 55-45 and Frazier leads Sias 65-35, not much drama left there.

10:15pm: By contrast, things are spreading a little more in CO-Sen R. Ken Buck now leads 52-48 over Norton.

10:14pm: Uh oh. McInnis has pulled back into the lead in CO-Gov, at least according to the AP. It’s 50-50, with a McInnis lead of 2,000.

10:12pm: Andrew Romanoff has reportedly called Michael Bennet to concede.

10:10pm: Just keep in mind: Georgia has an automatic recount for results within 1%. With 96% reporting, Handel has tightened things a little, to a 50.4%-49.6% race. 4,500 votes separate them.

10:08pm: Here’s a useful tidbit: the AP has called the IP primary in MN-Gov for Tom Horner. I’d heard reports that random GOPers (with no major primary of their own) were thinking of crossing over to sandbag Horner and try to get someone less appealing there, as the center-right Horner seems likelier to spoil things for Emmer than the Dem nominee.

10:07pm: We might also expect a call soon in CT-04 (where Dan Debicella’s at 64%, although only about one-third is reporting) and maybe also CT-05, where 75% is reporting and Caligiuri keeps gaining a little more daylight: he now leads Bernier and Greenberg 41-31-29.

10:03pm: The AP has called the CT-Sen GOP primary for Linda McMahon. She beats Simmons and Schiff 49-29-22. Still not sure I understand Simmons’ gambit, but at this point, it doesn’t matter. Let’s get ready for Blumenthal and McMahon to rumble.

10:01pm: Could Minnesota be another primary that the pollsters all got wrong? With 15% reporting, Margaret Anderson Kelliher is actually adding to her lead. She’s leading the lazy men at 47, with 35 for Dayton and 17 for Entenza.

9:58pm: The AP hasn’t called CO-Sen D, but the Denver Post have, and they probably know their state well. They just called it for Michael Bennet, who will not be joining Bob Bennett in the retirement home.

9:57pm: With ballots going to be counted over the coming days (Washington-style, they’ll count anything with today’s postmark), it may be a while till we know who wins either the R primaries in CO-Gov or CO-Sen. On the Senate side, it’s also Ken Buck 51, Jane Norton 49. For the Dems, it’s Michael Bennet 54, Andrew Romanoff 46.

9:55pm: Switching back to Colorado: it looks like they’re losing a little momentum in the count, as after quickly reaching half they’re only at 56% reporting now statewide. In the Gov GOP primary, Dan Maes still has a 51-49 lead over Scott McInnis.

9:54pm: I know you were on pins and needles about the wingnut-vs-wingnut duel in GA-07. The AP has called it in favor of former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall, 55-45, over Jody Hice.

9:52pm: We’re closing in on done in Georgia. (Apparently the Fulton County website is the one that’s right, and 75% there have reported.) Overall, 93% are in, and we’re still not close to knowing who won GA-Gov R. Deal still leads Handel 51-49, with a 7,000 vote lead out of more than 500K.

9:50pm: In CT-05, Sam Caligiuri is picking up a little speed. He’s at 40, vs. 30 each for Bernier and Greenberg, with about one-third reporting.

9:49pm: I wonder how Rob Simmons would be doing if he hadn’t done the weird Ross Perot-style angry dropout and half-assed return? Although it’s looking like Linda McMahon will win comfortably, Simmons plus Peter Schiff are keeping her below the halfway mark: 48-30-22.

9:47pm: It’ll be a while till we get a call in the GOP gube race in CT. Fedele’s definitely keeping things interesting, having had a late surge of his own. He’s at 37 to Foley’s 43, with 20 for Griebel.

9:45pm: The Hartford Courant is reporting that Ned Lamont has conceded the gubernatorial primary. (Guess who’s heaving a sigh of relief? Joe Lieberman.) And the AP just called the race, too. It’s 58-42 Malloy, with a little less than half reporting.

9:44pm: A little weirdness to note in Fulton County, Georgia. Their county website say they’re reporting 75% in, but they only have a few thousand more votes reported than according to the AP… and the AP says Fulton is only 21% reporting. We’ll have to see how this resolves itself.

9:42pm: We’re up to 2% in in MN-Gov’s DFL primary now, and things have switched here too. Kelliher’s now in the lead at 44, with Dayton at 33 and Kelliher at 22. A lot of Ramsey Co. (St. Paul) votes have come in, and they’re going for MAK by a wide margin.

9:40pm: Sad news for rematch fans. In GA-13 (not an interesting race, except for Base Connect enthusiasts), Deborah “The Defrauder” Honeycutt has lost her GOP runoff. The AP calls it for Mike Crane, 68-32; Crane will face David Scott in this safe Dem district.

9:39pm: There’s also those wee House races in Colorado. In CO-07’s GOP primary, Ryan Frazier seems to have this under control, beating Lang Sias 65-35 with more than half in. And with about a quarter in, Scott Tipton is way ahead of Bob McConnell, 58-42.

9:37pm: Also in Colorado, where we’ve shot past 50% reporting (to 56), things have swapped around in the Senate race. Ken Buck now leads Jane Norton, by a narrow 51-49 (133K to 127K), and Michael Bennet now leads Andrew Romanoff by a more convincing 54-46 (129K to 109K).

9:35pm: As things progress in Colorado, Dan Maes is starting to pull into the lead in the GOP gube primary. He leads Scott McInnis 52-48. That’s extremely good news, as Maes won’t drop out (while McInnis might, allowing a salvageable replacement) and will see this through to the bitter end.

9:32pm: The CT-04 GOP primary isn’t too remarkable (Dan Debicella is at 62% against two Some Dudes), but CT-05 is a three-way barnburner. Sam Caligiuri currently has a small edge, with 20% reporting. He leads Justin Bernier and Mark Greenberg 37-33-30.

9:30pm: Meanwhile, on the GOP side in Connecticut, Tom Foley is keeping his edge; he leads Michael Fedele and Oz Griebel 45-36-19. (Griebel, as the least known but also apparently least objectionable of the three, also seems to be overperforming.)

9:28pm: Dan Malloy is starting to put a little distance between him and Ned Lamont in the Connecticut governor’s Dem primary. Malloy now leads 58-42 with 28% reporting. Looks like Malloy’s way overperforming the polls, although the polls did capture his late surge.

9:25pm: We finally have some numbers in Minnesota, although it’s only a fraction of a percent of precincts reporting, from bellwether Anoka and Dakota Cos. in the MSP suburbs. Mark Dayton is at 43, with Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 36 and Matt Entenza at 20.

9:23pm: Insert Dan Ratherism here about the closeness of the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff. Nathan Deal leads Karen Handel 51-49 with 79% in, with about a 9,000 vote margin out of over 450,000 cast.

9:21pm: Looks like we have a few AP calls down in the Peach State. Tom Graves will get to stay in the House for another two years without having to face Lee Hawkins again; Graves wins GA-09 56-44. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney will get to take his nuclear power plant project management skills to the general election against John Barrow; he defeated Carl Smith 62-38. No call in GA-07 yet, although Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice 55-45 with about two-thirds in.

9:19pm: We’re racking up the numbers pretty quickly in Colorado now. Over in the Governor’s GOP primary, with almost 20% in, McInnis leads Maes by less than 1,000 votes, at 51-49.

9:11pm: Quite a few votes are reporting in Colorado, and Romanoff leads Bennet by 51-49 with 14% of precincts in. Norton leads Buck by 54-46 so far.

9:09pm: We’re at 70% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 237,146 to 229,295.

C’mon baby, let’s go!

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RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

9:01pm: Now that MN and CO are closed, let’s move this party over here.

8:55pm: 64% in, and Deal leads by 212,126 to 201,445.

8:50pm: Fulton County fans should know that they have their own results website, featuring a mind-bogglingly annoying auto-scroll feature. Enjoy!

8:47pm: So we’re up to 61% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 194,074 to 185,254.

8:44pm: Back in Connecticut, Malloy leads Lamont by 57-43 with about 10% in. Foley is up on Fedele by 46-45. Janet Peckinpaugh leads Daria Novak by 43-37 in the 2nd, and Caligiuri leads Greenberg by only 35-33 in the 5th.

8:37pm: 54% reporting in GA, and Deal’s lead has closed to 168,784-162,623.

8:26pm: We’re now at 43% reporting in Georgia, and Deal now leads Handel by 123,489 votes to 114,045. Deal’s keeping his 4% lead steady.

8:21pm: Over in the Nutmeg state, Foley leads Fedele by 46-34 with 2% of town precincts reporting. Malloy is up by 56-44 over Lamont, and McMahon has a 48-27-25 lead over Simmons and Schiff. In the 5th CD, Sam Caligiuri has a 36-32-32 lead over businessman Mark Greenberg and Afganistan vet Justin Bernier.

8:18pm: We’re up to 34% reporting in GA, and Nathaniel Deal is holding onto a 83,957-77,554 lead.

8:10pm: Deal is now leading by a full 4%, 72,107 to 66,595, with 31% reporting. Handel’s even losing Gwinnett County narrowly to Deal, which she won by a large spread back in July.

8:09pm: If you’d like to compare tonight’s results to the first round of voting, check out this handy table of county results.

8:05pm: Again, this seems to be a rare night where the Associated Press (and, therefore, the Politico) are getting lapped by the Georgia SoS. With 28% in, Deal now leads by 56,437-53,131 (3%).

8:03pm: So back to GA: Deal now sports a 48,814-46,354 lead over Handel with 26% in.

8:02pm: Polls have now closed in Connecticut.

7:57pm: Look out! Deal just took a 0.6% lead, according to the SoS. 24% of precincts are now reporting.

7:53pm: The crew over at SSP Labs is still setting up the mainframe, but we should get some projections to you once the boys in the long white coats are good and ready.

7:52pm: Deal’s now pulled even (according to the SoS office), trailing Handel by just over 40 votes, 24,739-24,693. 18% reporting.

7:48pm: In the House races, Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice by 10% in GA-07, incumbent Tom Graves leads Screamin’ Lee Hawkins by 14% in GA-09, and Ray McKinney leads Carl Smith 10% in GA-12. Oh, and Deborah Honeycutt is getting thrashed by Mike Crane in the 13th.

7:46pm: Handel now leads by just under 1000 votes (2.6%) with 15% of precincts reporting.

7:35pm: It’s now 9,630 Handel, 8,899 Deal (a 4% lead) with 9% of precincts reporting, according to the SoS. Only 1% of e-day votes have been counted so far, though.

7:20pm: We’re up to 3% reporting (according to the SoS office), and Handel’s lead over Deal is now 2,240-2,052 (that’s 52%-48%).

7:13pm: The GA SoS has our first taste of results for the night, with Handel leading Deal by a mere 28 votes.

Polls have now closed in Georgia, and SSP Headline News will be using this thread to follow the returns. Connecticut closes at 8pm Eastern and Minnesota and Colorado close at 9pm Eastern. We’ll touch base with those states later.

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RESULTS:

     Colorado: Associated Press | Politico

     Connecticut: Associated Press | Politico

     Georgia: Georgia SoS | Associated Press | Politico

     Minnesota: MN SoS | Associated Press | Politico

Come one, come all — if you have predictions for tonight’s hot primaries, now’s the time to share ’em.

And as always, the folks at SSP Headline News and SSP Labs will be in full operation for liveblogging duties tonight, so I hope you can join us when polls close at 8pm (MI & MO) and 9pm (KS).

After a slow few weeks in late June and July, August promises to be quite exciting, primary-wise!

Here are some races to watch in August:

8/3:

MO-Sen (R) – Blunt v. teabagger

MO-04 (R) – Free-for-all

MO-07 (R) – open seat

Proposition C – It’s about NULLIFICATION!

KS-Sen (R) – Moran/Tiahrt

KS-01, 04 (R) – open seats

KS-03 (R) – Yoder v. Lightner

KS-04 (D) – will Raj Goyle get VicRawl’d?

MI-Gov (D), (R)

MI-01, 02, 03 (R) – open seats

MI-07 (R) – Rooney/Walberg

MI-09 (R) – Rocky v. Welday

MI-12 (D)

MI-13 (D) – Kilpatrick weak

8/5: (hey, two primaries in one week!)

TN-Gov (R) – open seat

TN-03 (R) – Wamp’s open seat

TN-04 (R) – clusterfuck

TN-06 (R) – open seat

TN-08 (R) – Kirkland v. Flinn

TN-09 (D) – impending Willie Herenton fail

8/10:

CT-Gov (D) and (R) – Lamont/Malloy and Fedele/Foley

CT-Sen (R) – ghost of Rob Simmons?

CT-02, 04, 05 (R)

CO-Gov (R) – McInnis and Maes double fail

CO-Sen (D) – Bennet v. Romanoff

CO-Sen (R) – the devil wears prada?

CO-03, 07 (R)

GA-Gov (R) – Palin Handel v. Newt Deal

GA-07, 12 (R) – more runoffs

GA-09 (R) – Graves v. Hawkins round 3

MN-Gov (D) – Dayton v. Kelliher

8/17:

WA-Sen

WA-03

WY-Gov (D), (R)

8/24:

AZ-Sen (D), (R)

AZ-03 (R) – Shadegg’s open seat

AZ-01, 05, 08 (R)

VT-Gov (D)

FL-Gov (R) – (yes!!!!!!)

FL-Sen (D) – Meek v. Greene

FL-12, 25 (R) – open seats

FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)

FL-02 (D) – challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1

FL-17 (D) – Meek’s open seat

AK-Gov (R) – Parnell and the ghost of Palin?

AK-Sen (R) – Murkowski v. Palin proxy

8/28:

LA-Sen (R) – Vitter v. Traylor

LA-02 (D) – Lafonta v. Richmond

LA-03 (R)

WV-Sen (D), (R) – Byrd special primary

The roundup, of last night’s unexpectedly exciting results.

• OK-Gov (D): Incumbent LG Jari Askins pulled out a razor-thin win over incumbent Attorney General Drew Edmondson, despite Edmondson’s polling lead before the election. Football coaching legend Barry Switzer’s endorsement of Brad Henry 8 years ago is sometimes credited with Henry’s come-from-behind win, and perhaps the same applies this time around?
• OK-Gov (R): No surprise in the GOP gubernatorial race, where 5th CD Rep. Mary Fallin scored 55% against three opponents – this is eerily close to Ernest Istook (Fallin’s predecessor)’s 55% haul in 2006. Regardless of who wins in November, Oklahoma will have its first female governor in 2011.
• OK-01 (R): John Sullivan drew five challengers in his bid for re-election, with presumably some discontent on his right flank. Sullivan’s 62% performance puts him quite in line with other underwhelming incumbent performances this cycle.
• OK-02 (D)/(R): Incumbent Dan Boren easily dispatched State Senator Jim Wilson by a 76-24 margin. Wilson lost the counties in his own district 36-64, and the rest of the district by an even wider 78-22 margin. Boren will face one of the two underfunded GOPers who moved onto the runoff, Charles Thompson or Daniel Edmonds. Given that neither Thompson nor Edmonds has even one measly K in their campaign accounts, Boren should be a lock for re-election in November.

• OK-05 (D)/(R): On the GOP side, Christian camp director Jim Lankford and former state Rep. (and 2006 candidate) Kevin Calvey will move onto the runoff, having earned 34% and 32% respectively. State Rep. Mike Thompson – despite having the largest campaign warchest – came in third with 18%. The winner of that runoff will be heavily favored against Democrat Billy Coyle, a veteran and attorney, in this R+13 district.
  

11:01pm: Drew Edmondson’s conceded the race to Jari Askins, who’s still holding onto her 2,000 vote lead. That’s a wrap, folks!

10:47pm: Big chunk of Tulsa precincts just reported, closing Edmondson within 1%. This last batch was only slightly more pro-Edmondson than expected, leaving our projection at 50.28% Askins.

10:43pm: Canadian County’s also completely reported, shifting from a 7-vote Edmondson lead to a 4-vote Askins lead. That hardly budges the needle when it comes to the projection, we’re still saying 50.31% Askins. Three counties are left, but the bulk of remaining precincts are in Edmondson’s stronghold of Tulsa.

10:21pm: Rogers County has finally reported, adding a bit more than 5,700 votes into the race. (The mainframe is still good for some things!) Edmondson’s 53-47 haul there tightens the projection further, now to 50.31% Askins, with about 11,000 votes outstanding.

10:07pm: Here at SSP, we’re entertaining ourselves by speculating on what’s taking Rogers County so long to report results. We usually assume to ganja breaks, but this is suburban Tulsa, after all. In all seriousness, we’re estimating roughly 5,700 votes from Rogers County – Dem turnout’s been about 26% of the registered total; Rogers County has 22,000 registered Dems.

10:00pm: More than three hours in, and still nothing from Rogers County. The bulk of outstanding OK County precincts are in, only slightly less Askins-friendly than expected, nudging her predicted total to 50.38%.

9:40pm: The incoming precincts continue to be more Edmondson-friendly than expected, Askins is down to a predicted 50.46%, with the Rogers County caveat still applicable. With much of Tulsa left outstanding, it’ll likely come down to how the remaining OKC precincts swing.

9:36pm: Dan Boren is one lucky fellow. A runoff’s been called in OK-02 between Edmonds and Thompson, neither of whom has raised more than $24k this cycle (or has more than $1k cash-on-hand, for that matter).

9:25pm: We’re still looking at 51.00% for Askins, but an important caveat – we know nothing about Rogers County, which is next to Edmondson’s Tulsa stronghold.

9:19pm: Some more Edmondson-friendly territory in just now, dropping our prediction for Askins to 51% flat with about 65,000 votes left to count. Little movement in OK-02, where Daniel Edmonds is still almost doubling up Daniel Arnett in competition for that second runoff slot.

9:13pm: The last two sets of updates have been remarkably consistent for Jari Askins – her predicted vote share moved from 51.23% to 51.22% to 51.24%. We’re estimating now about 80,000 left out there.

9:04pm: 62% reporting statewide now; Askins continues to hold a slim 52-48 lead. Back-of-envelope says Askins by 2.5% with about 88,000 votes still floating in the ether.

9:00pm: A runoff’s been called for OK-05 as well, with Kevin Calvey at 34 slightly ahead of Jim Lankford at 32. Mike Thompson lags at 17; Shane Jett’s at 12.

8:53pm: The AP’s called half the runoff in OK-02, with the scarlet letter floating next to Charles Thompson’s name. He’s at 34%, followed by Daniel Edmonds at 27% and Daniel Arnett at 14%.

8:49pm: The mainframe’s finally warmed up, and the back-of-punchcard calculations are saying  Askins by 3%. Edmondson’s cleaning house in his home base of Tulsa 61-39, but Oklahoma County is leaning towards Askins 52-48. Askins is also doing well in the south of the state (her base), scoring 82-18 in Stephens County (Duncan) and 68-32 in Comanche County (Lawton).

8:40pm: For OK-05, the AP’s called the Dem nod for Billy Coyle, a former Marine and current OKC lawyer; despite this district’s swing towards Obama in 2008, he’ll face an uphill climb in November.

8:37pm: A big influx of precincts brings us to 42% reporting; Askins continues to hold a 53-47 lead for the Gov nod. Thompson at 34 and Edmonds at 27 continue to look like runoff contenders in OK-02 (R), as do Calvey at 33 and Lankford at 31 in OK-05 (R). We’ll put the call to SSP Labs to boot up the mainframe, should the Gov (D) race stay close.

8:34pm: The AP’s called the Governor’s race on the GOP side for Mary Fallin, following the trajectory of her Congressional predecessor, Ernest Istook.

8:30pm: One-third reporting for Governor now, Askins still has a 53-47 lead, while Fallin continues to cruise with 60 on the (R) side.

8:26pm: The AP’s now called OK-01 for John Sullivan, who’s at 65% – a number we’ve seen pretty frequently this primary cycle for underwhelming incumbents on both sides.

8:17pm: The AP’s now running slightly ahead of the OK SEB, and the two sources have converged on 53-47 Askins for Gov-D and 58% for Fallin on the R side.

8:14pm: In the House races, OK-02 and OK-05 are two similar stories of two candidates pulling away. In OK-02, Edmonds and Thompson are ahead; in OK-05, it’s Calvey and Lankford. In OK-01, Sullivan’s still pulling a less-than-stellar but far-from-worrisome 65%.

8:08pm: Jari Askins continues to exceed expectations in the Gov (D) race, the AP (36,000 cast) has her with a 55-45 lead; the OK SEB has her with some newfound daylight at 53-47 (46,000 cast). Fallin’s still clearing a runoff on the (R) side.

8:01pm: While the AP and OK SEB disagree on the Dem side for Governor, they’re in agreement on Mary Fallin’s 59% haul so far. In OK-02 (R), Daniel Edmonds and Charles Thompson have broken away from the field, but are still in runoff territory. The AP’s also called OK-04 for Tom Cole, who’s scoring 80%.

7:56pm: Edmondson continues to close on Askins for the Dem nod for Governor, now 51-49 according to the SEB with 25,000 votes cast. The AP has 18,000 votes cast and a 56-44 Askins lead.

7:53pm: Off in OK-01, six lined up to challenge incumbent GOPer John Sullivan, but only 2 are in the double digits; Sullivan has 67% or 69%, depending on source.

7:51pm: More precincts keep trickling in. The OK SEB has 5% reporting and a 53-47 Askins lead for Gov (D); Fallin’s still looking at an outright win, with 59% right now. AP has this at 57-43 Askins and Fallin at 62%.

7:48pm: Love him or hate him, Dan Boren seems on track for reelection. The AP’s just called OK-02 in his favor.

7:46pm: Again the OK SEB and the AP are showing their discrepancies. The OK SEB has Calvey ahead at 39 and Lankford at 30, with the rest of the field still trailing.

7:44pm: In the OK-05 free-for-all, now 3% reporting, Lankford’s at 35 and Calvey at 30. Thompson’s at 18, Jett at 12. In the OK-02 (R) six-way brawl, Charles Thompson’s leading. He’s at 40 according to the AP, but the OK SEB has him clearing a runoff with 55.

7:39pm: The geographic discrepancy is already quite obvious in OK-02 (D), where Boren’s ahead 69-31. Wilson’s leading 57-43 in the counties that overlap his SD, but is getting demolished 75-25 elsewhere.

7:32pm: The AP’s called the OK-Sen (R) primary for Tom Coburn, who holding steady at 91%.

7:29pm: On the Republican side, Tom Cole is easily dispatching his opponent in OK-04 79-21; Mary Fallin is still on track for an outright win with 60% by the AP/Politico and 58% by the OK SEB.

7:25pm: Politico and the OK SEB seem to be reporting different areas; Politico’s absentees, for example, have Askins up 59-41, while the SEB’s 17 (presumably election-day) precincts show a 58-42 Askins.

7:23pm: Tom Coburn has 2 primary challengers but seemingly little difficulty, earning 91% in the first few precincts. In OK-05, Jim Lankford and Kevin Calvey have a bit of distance between then and Mike Thompson, who’s in 3rd. Boren’s now leading in OK-02, 71-29 according to Politico; the OK SEB has this at 52-48 Boren.

7:17pm: With a single precinct reporting in OK-02, Jim Wilson has a 57-43 lead over Dan Boren. No info on where that precinct is; Wilson represents three counties (Adair, Cherokee, and Sequoyah) in the state Senate.

7:15pm: Just a few votes here and there so far; Jari Askins has a 35-vote lead over Drew Edmondson in the Dem Gov race, while Mary Fallin’s 3% out of runoff territory.

This is about to get real.

RESULTS: Associated Press | OK SEB | Politico

11:30pm: The AP has called the last race we were watching, in GA-07. The race to succeed John Linder will be heading to a runoff between Rob Woodall (37) and Jody Hice (26). Clay Cox (20) didn’t make it. And with that, we seem to be through for the night.

11:11pm: A few more calls on the GOP sides in the House races. GA-08 has been called for Austin Scott, who clears the bar at 53%. In GA-09, Tom Graves (at 49%) and Lee Hawkins (27) got called for a runoff. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney (43) and Carl Smith (27) are officially runoff-bound.

11:04pm: The AP has called the Dem primary in GA-04 for Hank Johnson, without a runoff. He’s at 55, with 27 for Vernon Jones and 18 for Connie Stokes.

10:43pm: Well, that’s it for the Ox. The AP just called Nathan Deal as the other participant in the GOP gubernatorial runoff. With 80% reporting it’s Handel 33, Deal 24, Johnson 20, and Oxendine 17.

10:25pm: Bad news… with 82% reporting, Austin Scott’s up to 53% in the GOP primary in the 8th. I’d rather have Jim Marshall face him after having gotten beaten up in a runoff. On the other hand, in the super-red 9th, Tom Graves is sinking, down to 49%, with 86% reporting. Looks like he’s likely to face Screamin’ Lee Hawkins for a fourth time this year, in another runoff.

10:23pm: At least one member of the Porter household is going home happy tonight; Carol Porter has been called the winner of the Democratic Lt. Governor primary.

10:10pm: The AP has put a big “R” next to Karen Handel’s name (for runoff, presumably), but no call yet for Nathan Deal on joining her.

10:06pm: John Barrow is leading Regina Thomas 68-32 in GA-12 on the D side, with half reporting, but still no AP call.

10:04pm: And I think the candidate for the biggest upset of the night is GA-07 on the GOP side, where the highly-touted state Rep. Clay Cox isn’t even making the runoff. Linder CoS Rob Woodall is at 38 and talk radio host Jody Hice is at 26, with Cox at 19. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer teabagger.

10:02pm: With more than half reporting, Hank Johnson’s still in the safety zone in the D primary for GA-04. He’s at 55, with 27 for Vernon Jones and 18 for Connie Stokes.

10:00pm: In case you were wondering about GA-02, the AP has called the GOP primary for state Rep. Mike Keown, with 80% against scattered opposition. He’s fundraised fairly well, so Sanford Bishop will have to take this one seriously in November.

9:57pm: With 56% reporting, we’re seeing John Oxendine slipping into 4th place, not that that matters other than for reverse-bragging rights. It’s Handel 32, Deal 25, Johnson 19, Oxendine 18.

9:33pm: Major excitement in both GA-08 and GA-09. (By SSP standards, which, admittedly, are pretty low.) Austin Scott has noodged just ahead of 50% in the 8th, up to 51%, with about half reporting. And in the 9th Graves is right about 50%.

9:26pm: The AP has now leapfrogged the GA SoS as being the fastest results outlet, so retrain your sites on either the AP or Politico links below. And guess what? They just called the Democratic gubernatorial nomination for Roy Barnes, who has 63% of the vote with 45.5% reporting. On the GOP side, Handel leads Deal by 33-25.

9:05pm: With 21% in, the GOP side of the governor’s race is further solidifying. It’s Handel 33, Deal 25, Oxendine 18, and Johnson 18. Oxendine might be lucky to make 3rd place.

9:00pm: I think this is going to be the night’s most exciting race: Austin Scott vs. the runoff line, in GA-08 on the GOP side. He’s currenly at precisely 50.0%, with 36% reporting. Ken DeLoach is 2nd, at 33.

8:57pm: The runoff is in three weeks, on 8/10. I can only imagine how Georgians are going to spend the next three weeks getting intimately acquainted with all the details about Nathan Deal’s family’s auto salvage business.

8:52pm: Another gubernatorial update. Barnes is at 58%, looks like he can go on vacation salt away money while Handel and Deal fight the runoff. I say Handel and Deal because Oxendine keeps dwindling: it’s currently Handel 30, Deal 27, Oxendine 19, Johnson 17.

8:38pm: Fail of the day: Oxendine is in 4th place in his home county, Gwinnett.

8:36pm: In the gube race, Roy Barnes is pulling further ahead, beating Baker 57-21 with 13% in. On the GOP side, it’s Handel 31, Deal 25, Oxendine 19, Johnson 17.

8:34pm: Ah, that’s better. Hank Johnson has righted his capsizing island, with 7% in in the 4th. He’s up to 56% now, with 24 for Jones and 20 for Stokes.

8:32pm: Maybe Clay Cox wasn’t in the driver’s seat as much as I’d thought, in GA-07. With 8% in, he’s trailing former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall, 38-23. Radio talk show host Jody Hice is nipping at his heels, too, at 20.

8:30pm: We’ve finally got some action in GA-04. With only 1% reporting, things haven’t really solidified yet, but the numbers show Hank Johnson in the lead but below the runoff line. He’s at 47, with Vernon Jones at 30 and Connie Stokes at 23.

8:20pm: Mildly amusing: In GA-13, BaseConnect client Deborah Honeycutt is losing to businessman Mike Crane by 34-28 according to the GA SoS. Honeycutt earned headlines last cycle for raising and spending an absurd $5 million in her unsuccessful campaign against Democrat David Scott. (Most of that money, as you may recall went straight back to BaseConnect, which at that time was still called BMW Direct.) Honeycutt’s fundraising hasn’t been the same this cycle, though.

8:16pm: In GA-09, Rep. Tom Graves might get forced into yet another runoff. He’s hovering at 48.5% right now, with Steve Tarvin and Lee Hawkins splitting the anti-Graves vote.

8:14pm: I know the Dem AG primary was grabbing a lot of attention. It didn’t turn out to be very competitive, either: it’s Hodges 72, Teilhet 28.

8:11pm: On the Dem side in the governor’s race, Barnes is still holding at 54. Baker is at 20, Poythress is overperforming (relatively speaking) at 10, and Porter is at 8. And in the Dem Senate primary, not much to see, with Michael Thurmond at 82, R.J. Hadley at 18.

8:09pm: And with that, Deal’s in 2nd. With 7% reporting statewide, it’s now Handel 31, Deal 24, Oxendine 20, Johnson 15. Has the Ox been gored?

8:07pm: We’re up to 5% reporting statewide, and Nathan Deal’s starting to creep back up. Now it’s Handel 32, Oxendine 22, Deal 21, Johnson 15.

8:05pm: Here’s a small surprise: it looks like NRCC prize pick Austin Scott may need to go to a runoff in the GOP primary in GA-08. Even though most of his competition dropped out, pastor Ken DeLoach is still faring pretty well. Scott leads DeLoach 46-34, with someone named Diane Vann at 19.

8:02pm: In the House races, we’re getting a clearer picture in the 12th: Regina Thomas is definitely performing better this year, but still not enough. With 7%, Barrow leads Thomas 64-36, about where a lot of those other HCR-related primary challenges to Blue Dogs wound up. It looks like we’ll have to go to a runoff to find who Barrow’s opponent will be (probably between Ray McKinney (40) and Carl Smith (26)).

8:00pm: Things are smoothing out a little now that we’re up to 2% reporting. (Those first counties, esp. Fannin, appear to be in Deal’s GA-09.) Handel’s at 28, Oxendine at 24, Deal at 19, and Johnson at 18. On the Dem side, Barnes is still above the runoff line at 54 with Baker at 22.

7:45pm: Some very early votes are in, and so far, Barnes leads Baker by 55-18. Nathan Deal (!) leads Oxendine by 34-24, but this is still way early.

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This thing is about to go off.

RESULTS: Associated Press | GA SoS | Politico