Oklahoma Primary Results Thread

11:01pm: Drew Edmondson’s conceded the race to Jari Askins, who’s still holding onto her 2,000 vote lead. That’s a wrap, folks!

10:47pm: Big chunk of Tulsa precincts just reported, closing Edmondson within 1%. This last batch was only slightly more pro-Edmondson than expected, leaving our projection at 50.28% Askins.

10:43pm: Canadian County’s also completely reported, shifting from a 7-vote Edmondson lead to a 4-vote Askins lead. That hardly budges the needle when it comes to the projection, we’re still saying 50.31% Askins. Three counties are left, but the bulk of remaining precincts are in Edmondson’s stronghold of Tulsa.

10:21pm: Rogers County has finally reported, adding a bit more than 5,700 votes into the race. (The mainframe is still good for some things!) Edmondson’s 53-47 haul there tightens the projection further, now to 50.31% Askins, with about 11,000 votes outstanding.

10:07pm: Here at SSP, we’re entertaining ourselves by speculating on what’s taking Rogers County so long to report results. We usually assume to ganja breaks, but this is suburban Tulsa, after all. In all seriousness, we’re estimating roughly 5,700 votes from Rogers County – Dem turnout’s been about 26% of the registered total; Rogers County has 22,000 registered Dems.

10:00pm: More than three hours in, and still nothing from Rogers County. The bulk of outstanding OK County precincts are in, only slightly less Askins-friendly than expected, nudging her predicted total to 50.38%.

9:40pm: The incoming precincts continue to be more Edmondson-friendly than expected, Askins is down to a predicted 50.46%, with the Rogers County caveat still applicable. With much of Tulsa left outstanding, it’ll likely come down to how the remaining OKC precincts swing.

9:36pm: Dan Boren is one lucky fellow. A runoff’s been called in OK-02 between Edmonds and Thompson, neither of whom has raised more than $24k this cycle (or has more than $1k cash-on-hand, for that matter).

9:25pm: We’re still looking at 51.00% for Askins, but an important caveat – we know nothing about Rogers County, which is next to Edmondson’s Tulsa stronghold.

9:19pm: Some more Edmondson-friendly territory in just now, dropping our prediction for Askins to 51% flat with about 65,000 votes left to count. Little movement in OK-02, where Daniel Edmonds is still almost doubling up Daniel Arnett in competition for that second runoff slot.

9:13pm: The last two sets of updates have been remarkably consistent for Jari Askins – her predicted vote share moved from 51.23% to 51.22% to 51.24%. We’re estimating now about 80,000 left out there.

9:04pm: 62% reporting statewide now; Askins continues to hold a slim 52-48 lead. Back-of-envelope says Askins by 2.5% with about 88,000 votes still floating in the ether.

9:00pm: A runoff’s been called for OK-05 as well, with Kevin Calvey at 34 slightly ahead of Jim Lankford at 32. Mike Thompson lags at 17; Shane Jett’s at 12.

8:53pm: The AP’s called half the runoff in OK-02, with the scarlet letter floating next to Charles Thompson’s name. He’s at 34%, followed by Daniel Edmonds at 27% and Daniel Arnett at 14%.

8:49pm: The mainframe’s finally warmed up, and the back-of-punchcard calculations are saying  Askins by 3%. Edmondson’s cleaning house in his home base of Tulsa 61-39, but Oklahoma County is leaning towards Askins 52-48. Askins is also doing well in the south of the state (her base), scoring 82-18 in Stephens County (Duncan) and 68-32 in Comanche County (Lawton).

8:40pm: For OK-05, the AP’s called the Dem nod for Billy Coyle, a former Marine and current OKC lawyer; despite this district’s swing towards Obama in 2008, he’ll face an uphill climb in November.

8:37pm: A big influx of precincts brings us to 42% reporting; Askins continues to hold a 53-47 lead for the Gov nod. Thompson at 34 and Edmonds at 27 continue to look like runoff contenders in OK-02 (R), as do Calvey at 33 and Lankford at 31 in OK-05 (R). We’ll put the call to SSP Labs to boot up the mainframe, should the Gov (D) race stay close.

8:34pm: The AP’s called the Governor’s race on the GOP side for Mary Fallin, following the trajectory of her Congressional predecessor, Ernest Istook.

8:30pm: One-third reporting for Governor now, Askins still has a 53-47 lead, while Fallin continues to cruise with 60 on the (R) side.

8:26pm: The AP’s now called OK-01 for John Sullivan, who’s at 65% – a number we’ve seen pretty frequently this primary cycle for underwhelming incumbents on both sides.

8:17pm: The AP’s now running slightly ahead of the OK SEB, and the two sources have converged on 53-47 Askins for Gov-D and 58% for Fallin on the R side.

8:14pm: In the House races, OK-02 and OK-05 are two similar stories of two candidates pulling away. In OK-02, Edmonds and Thompson are ahead; in OK-05, it’s Calvey and Lankford. In OK-01, Sullivan’s still pulling a less-than-stellar but far-from-worrisome 65%.

8:08pm: Jari Askins continues to exceed expectations in the Gov (D) race, the AP (36,000 cast) has her with a 55-45 lead; the OK SEB has her with some newfound daylight at 53-47 (46,000 cast). Fallin’s still clearing a runoff on the (R) side.

8:01pm: While the AP and OK SEB disagree on the Dem side for Governor, they’re in agreement on Mary Fallin’s 59% haul so far. In OK-02 (R), Daniel Edmonds and Charles Thompson have broken away from the field, but are still in runoff territory. The AP’s also called OK-04 for Tom Cole, who’s scoring 80%.

7:56pm: Edmondson continues to close on Askins for the Dem nod for Governor, now 51-49 according to the SEB with 25,000 votes cast. The AP has 18,000 votes cast and a 56-44 Askins lead.

7:53pm: Off in OK-01, six lined up to challenge incumbent GOPer John Sullivan, but only 2 are in the double digits; Sullivan has 67% or 69%, depending on source.

7:51pm: More precincts keep trickling in. The OK SEB has 5% reporting and a 53-47 Askins lead for Gov (D); Fallin’s still looking at an outright win, with 59% right now. AP has this at 57-43 Askins and Fallin at 62%.

7:48pm: Love him or hate him, Dan Boren seems on track for reelection. The AP’s just called OK-02 in his favor.

7:46pm: Again the OK SEB and the AP are showing their discrepancies. The OK SEB has Calvey ahead at 39 and Lankford at 30, with the rest of the field still trailing.

7:44pm: In the OK-05 free-for-all, now 3% reporting, Lankford’s at 35 and Calvey at 30. Thompson’s at 18, Jett at 12. In the OK-02 (R) six-way brawl, Charles Thompson’s leading. He’s at 40 according to the AP, but the OK SEB has him clearing a runoff with 55.

7:39pm: The geographic discrepancy is already quite obvious in OK-02 (D), where Boren’s ahead 69-31. Wilson’s leading 57-43 in the counties that overlap his SD, but is getting demolished 75-25 elsewhere.

7:32pm: The AP’s called the OK-Sen (R) primary for Tom Coburn, who holding steady at 91%.

7:29pm: On the Republican side, Tom Cole is easily dispatching his opponent in OK-04 79-21; Mary Fallin is still on track for an outright win with 60% by the AP/Politico and 58% by the OK SEB.

7:25pm: Politico and the OK SEB seem to be reporting different areas; Politico’s absentees, for example, have Askins up 59-41, while the SEB’s 17 (presumably election-day) precincts show a 58-42 Askins.

7:23pm: Tom Coburn has 2 primary challengers but seemingly little difficulty, earning 91% in the first few precincts. In OK-05, Jim Lankford and Kevin Calvey have a bit of distance between then and Mike Thompson, who’s in 3rd. Boren’s now leading in OK-02, 71-29 according to Politico; the OK SEB has this at 52-48 Boren.

7:17pm: With a single precinct reporting in OK-02, Jim Wilson has a 57-43 lead over Dan Boren. No info on where that precinct is; Wilson represents three counties (Adair, Cherokee, and Sequoyah) in the state Senate.

7:15pm: Just a few votes here and there so far; Jari Askins has a 35-vote lead over Drew Edmondson in the Dem Gov race, while Mary Fallin’s 3% out of runoff territory.

This is about to get real.

RESULTS: Associated Press | OK SEB | Politico