SurveyUSA (7/22-25, likely voters, no trend lines):
Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 45
Jon Barela (R): 51
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.2%)
There’s been a lot of chatter today about this explosive new SUSA poll showing frosh Democrat Martin Heinrich trailing his Republican challenger, former Albuquerque Hispanic Chamber of Commerce leader Jon Barela. Let’s slice this sucker open and take a look at the innards.
SurveyUSA polled this contest once before in 2008 and several times in 2006 — culminating in an early November poll showing a razor-thin lead for Democrat Patsy Madrid. Let’s take a look at three demographic yardsticks from each poll, starting with its sample composition of 18-34 year-olds, a particularly controversial age bracket for SUSA this cycle:
| Nov-06 | Aug-08 | Jul-10 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vote Share | 24% | 20% | 16% |
| Dem Margin | 8% | 37% | -3% |
Next up, Hispanic voters:
| Nov-06 | Aug-08 | Jul-10 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vote Share | 37% | 24% | 27% |
| Dem Margin | 16% | 23% | 13% |
And, finally, party affiliation:
| Nov-06 | Aug-08 | Jul-10 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 46% | 47% | 45% |
| Republican | 39% | 36% | 39% |
| Independent | 13% | 16% | 16% |
Nothing particularly dramatic outside of Heinrich’s supposed collapse among younger voters. I’m inclined to believe this is a real race (though I’m not yet convinced that Heinrich is actually down).
In response, Heinrich’s campaign released an internal poll of their own. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (7/8-13, likely voters, 4/28-5/2 in parens):
Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 53 (55)
Jon Barela (R): 41 (38)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
At the very least, this race is getting closer — which isn’t good news for anyone.
believe this race is closer than what Heinrich’s victory in 2008 suggested. It was only because Obama cleaned house with Hispanics throughout New Mexico that Heinrich won by such a large margin.
PPP poll from February showed Heinrich leading 45-36. I’d imagine its tightened some in the last 5 months.
When you say: “which isn’t good news for anyone” do you mean people from both parties or just us. I’m inclined to say us because what good news have you brought us this week.
Susana Martinez’s presence across the GOP ticket is likely to boost Hispanic turnout. Will Hispanic Martinez voters also punch the card for an Anglo Republican congressional candidate? If they do, this is a real race to watch.
Also, I love the recruitment here. Go up against the most handsome man in Congress with…….another young, handsome guy. Smart move.
But SUSA is definitely understating the Hispanic vote in this poll (a lot like they did in that 2008 August poll), plus Barela’s only real strength is that he’s Hispanic (the NM GOP has definitely done itself a favor by nominating some Hispanic candidates in the state, they simply can’t afford to be blown out of the water among Hispanics).
is absurd. This absurdity has occured in other SUSA polls this year which means it isn’t a one time yip. Worse it’s a 33% drop in the sample compared to 2006. There is no way to take such aggressively opinionated weighting seriously.