For “A Republican Connecticut” I’ve made not one but four interesting maps. There is also a bonus Democratic Connecticut for those interested. Redistricting in Connecticut, as I understand it, prohibits the splitting of towns for any reason other than to balance population. Therefore I have not split any towns in any of the maps and have kept population deviation within 1%; town splitting to accomodate the last couple of thousand people won’t change any numbers. As in only 29 of the 169 towns in Connecticut did a majority of voters vote for McCain over Obama, most by a slender margin, it was rather difficult to produce overly Republican districts. Edit: The colouring problems should now be resolved
Republican Connecticut (2-3)
We will start off with a messy looking map that should give Republicans a chance at both the R+1 1st and the D+3 2nd.
1st (Blue) 51.7% Obama
2nd (Green) 56.1% Obama
3rd (Dark Magenta) 70.9% Obama
4th (Red) 63.3% Obama
5th (Gold) 66.1% Obama
Republican Connecticut with Water Contiguity (2-3)
CD1 and CD2 are both close to toss-up districts with R+1/D+1 PVIs respectively. Districts four and, spectacularly, five both rely on water continuity. The water south of Darien in western Connecticut shouldn’t be coloured for this or future maps; it’s just a limitation in the application.
1st (Blue) 51.9% Obama
2nd (Green) 54.1% Obama
3rd (Dark Magenta) 68.8% Obama
4th (Red) 66.6% Obama
5th (Gold) 67.0% Obama
Republican Connecticut (1-4)
CD1 is the most Republican district I could make in Connecticut without splitting towns or using water contiguity, it doesn’t quite get under 50% Obama but it does achieve a R+2 PVI. Three democratic district are stacked on top of each other in the centre of the state (and one on the western edge) whilst the republican district wraps itself around them on three sides.
1st (Blue) 50.8% Obama
2nd (Green) 68.0% Obama
3rd (Dark Magenta) 61.9% Obama
4th (Red) 64.0% Obama
5th (Gold) 62.3% Obama
Republican Connecticut with Water Contiguity (1-4)
At last a Connecticut congressional district that voted for McCain! By the thumping margin of 575 votes! And all that needed to be done was sacrifice four out of the five districts and use water continuity for two of the districts.
1st (Blue) 49.9% Obama
2nd (Green) 66.5% Obama
3rd (Dark Magenta) 62.6% Obama
4th (Red) 69.4% Obama
5th (Gold) 60.2% Obama
Democratic Connecticut
Finally I made a bonus Democratic Connecticut that might be quite a good choice for redistricting if Democrats had free reign over the process. Only counties too large for their own congressional district are split and the current representatives remain in their own districts, though not Chris Murphy since he is running for senate (although he could be drawn back into the 5th easily enough if it were desired).
1st (Blue) 61.6% Obama
All of Litchfield county, most of northern Hartford county, Waterbury and Wolcott towns in New Haven county.
2nd (Green) 60.5% Obama
All of New London, Windham, and Tolland counties, south eastern Hartford County, and Enfield township.
3rd (Dark Magenta) 60.0% Obama
Western New Haven county and Northern Fairfield county.
4th (Red) 61.0% Obama
Southern Fairfield county.
5th (Gold) 62.8% Obama
Big change here. The district shifts east to encompass all of Chester county, southern Hartford county and western New Haven county.
That Democratic map looks so reasonable! Let’s hope it happens.
And considering the luck Republicans have had previously in winning districts in Connecticut as much as D +2, I think they’d be pretty happy with the first map (although seeing how badly Sam Caliguri lost and how Jim Himes survived his first campaign as an incumbent those days may be gone for now).
One thought; Himes basically won because of Bridgeport in 2010, so I think a Republican would easily win the 1st in all four of your of your Republican maps, Obama numbers aside.