As we all know, Minnesota has split control of the redistricting possible, again. That means that the legislature and the governor will have very (irreconsilable) different dreams of what Minnesota's districts should look like, again. This means that the courts will undoubtedly draw the districts, again.
Before we get started, I had to think like a judge. Judges drew every map within recent memory here in Minnesota (including the current map), so the status quo was a good place to start. The 2nd and 6th had to shed some major territory, with the 7th, 4th, and 5th needing to pick up population. Judges don't draw ugly lines, and try to keep both communities of interest, and counties together as much as possible. This map splits only 5 unnecessary counties. I chose to split Stearns, Beltrami, Goodhue, Washington, and Carver. (Hennepin County needs to be split due to it's large population, and I only split Hennepin County once, as it is now.)
Here is the macroscopic view:
This has the same basic concept as the current map. An Iron Range/Duluth district (8), a western farm district (7), a southern farm district (1), a St. Paul district (4), a Minneapolis district (5), a suburban Hennepin County district (3), a north suburban district (6), and a south suburban district (2).
Here is a zoomed up view of the metro area.
District by district rundown.
1st (Blue). This district is very similar to the current 1st, and the border between the 1st and 7th remains unchanged. The 1st adds only portions of Goodhue to get to proper population. I chose Goodhue instead of the neighboring (more DFL-friendly) Rice county, because a judge would look for clean lines, and removing a corner of the 2nd district, instead of putting a chunk of the center of the district makes the districts more compact. Regardless, these few votes don't change the 1st at all, and Walz will hold the district while he wants it. (Likely DFL with Walz, tossup if open)
2nd (Green). This is Klines district, and it remains mostly the same except for shedding boundaries around the edges to meet population. For population purposes. This district is very close in PVI to the current 2nd, and Kline is congressman for life if he chooses to stay in congress indefinitely. There is no DFL bench here to speak of. (Safe R with Kline, Likely R if he runs for senate, governor, or retires.)
3rd (Purple). I put the 3rd back where it had been foe eons, which is back entirely within Hennepin County, but not crossing into Minneapolis. Not much you can do to shift the PVI of this district, although adding a couple of the inner ring suburbs to replace the tiny bits of Wright and Anoka Counties it had leeched into may make this D+1 instead of EVEN. Regardless, Paulsen is popular, and this district is very ancestrally Republican. (Likely R with Paulsen, Lean R if Open)
4th (Red). Picks up southern Washington county, and keeps the other borders coterminous with Ramsey County (St. Paul). Not much to see here, McCollum is safe. Technically, Bachmann lives here, but she wouldn't stand a prayer in this district, nor would she be likely to run. (Safe DFL regardless of candidates)
5th. (Yellow) Very close to the current 5th, with the addition of Blaine in Anoka County. This is still one of the most liberal white-majority districts in the country. Ellison is congressman for life (much to my dismay). (Safe DFL)
6th (Teal). This is most of the current 6th, with the east and west ends chopped off, and extends north into Chisago and Isanti Counties. Chip Cravaack lives here, but this is mostly Bachmann's territory. Bachmann would steamroll Cravaack in a primary (she is just too well known, and too well funded, even though she underperforms Generic R every cycle). I have a feeling Bachmann is going to make a kamikaze run at the White House, and take a job at Fox after crashing and burning. Cravaack is given a safe district following her departure. (Safe R with Cravaack of open, Likely R with Bachmann).
7th (Gray) . Farms, farms, and more farms. Expands to take in most of the rest of Stearns County he doesn't represent, sans St. Cloud. Peterson is beloved by farmers here (he IS the “F” in DFL). Politically, this district still has a strong R+ PVI, but it doesn't change much from what it is now. Peterson will win here, but most other kinds of DFLers would lose. Fortunately, there are a few agri-Dems in the district waiting in the wings. Unfortunately for people on places like HuffPo, and Kos, they will vote just like Peterson if they make it to congress. Just keep in mind that is MUCH preferable to how a Republican in this district would vote. (Likely DFL with Peterson, Lean R if open).
8th (Slate). This district sheds farmland in Wadena county, and exurbs in Chisago and Isanti County. It does that to bring in St. Cloud proper (which actually gave Obama a net of a couple thousand votes). Over all, this will shift the PVI maybe 1 point to towards team blue, but not enough to matter much. This district is very rock-ribbed DFL at the local and legislative level. Cravaack rode a perfect storm to the narrowest of victories, and every other statewide candidate still won the old version of the 8th, and won this incarnation by more. Cravaack would be DOA for reelection here. And sorry Tarryl Clark fans, her chances of winning a primary here are almost zero, even though she lives in the district.
Over all, this would give compact, judicially drawn districts. Neither the DFL nor the Republicans will be thrilled with this, but that's about what you can expect with a judge and a redistricting pen.
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This is, if not the map I wish for, very close to what will most likely happen.
Just a few questions.
Are judges, supposedly looking for compactness, okay with the 6th being a sort of upside-down U in order to keep all of Hennepin together in the 3rd? It seems logical to me, but I wonder if a judge obsessed with compactness might veto it.
From a community of interest standpoint, do you think St. Cloud is a better fit in the 6th or the 8th? You obviously could have put it in either, but you chose the 8th. Is there a reason for that beyond it voting Dem?
Overall, this is I think the most realistic map of Minnesota we’ve seen. Congrats.
Do courts pay any attention to where incumbents live in practice? It makes sense for MN4 to expand to the east and the northern exurbs fit better in MN6 than in MN8, but is there any chance they would fudge the lines to avoid cutting Cravaack and Bachmann out of their districts?
If I were a Dem, I would beg for this map, as I don’t see anything in it they would object to.
Question; Why are so many big-name DFL’ers passing up on showing any interest towards taking on Cravaack? I know the DSCC has told prospective candidates not to be so vocal before redistricting is complete, but if everyone thinks it’s going to be a court-drawn map anyways and the core of the 8th is going to still be Duluth and the Iron Range, why are so many prospective candidates being so Shermanesque?
run again in the same district he currently represents? You don’t have to live in a district to represent it.
will end up in court. Is the situation in MN beyond dsyfunctional right now? I would say that the GOP house & senate and Gov Dayton, as of right now, seem to be existing on different planets. You might ask to check my meds if I suggested peace and harmony on a CD map for MN but strangely things have happened before. I say watch the incumbents. If Congressman Petersona and Walz strike a deal for a bipartisan map it will get done. I have said all along that is 50-50 and I hold to that view.
On a different note what will happen if the courts draw the maps. The Surpreme court is dominated by GOP judges and will likely appoint a bipartisan panel and then they will approve the map. Here’s two points.
1. a GOP incumbnet like Craavack in MN8 will not lose his two best counties ie Isanti & Chisago. That does not see likely in a bipartisan compromise plan that a judicial panel would draw up.
2. Stearns county will not be split three ways. Take a look at the last judicial panel’s map and how many counties are split three ways? Washington county with 400K is split three ways and at the most other counties are split two ways. Very few counties are split period.
3. I see the key for the judges panel to be Peterson in CD7. He needs 36K for his district. He is the senior member-powerful democratic legislator. I think he comes out either the same or better. That means he gets the balance of Beltrami county and part of Koochiching county. I also think Craavack comes out slightly better because of that move. The judges are not going to undo the 2010 election results and hurt his re-election chances. I might add that Walz will probably be marginally improved as well by the Judges.
4.I might add that by improving the districts of all incumbents it will encourage future compromises. You would think that the 2001 map, which helped the GOP, would encourage democrats to compromise now. Some folks, however including myself, have a hard time learning lessons.