Author: OGGoldy

 As we all know, Minnesota has split control of the redistricting possible, again. That means that the legislature and the governor will have very (irreconsilable) different dreams of what Minnesota's districts should look like, again. This means that the courts will undoubtedly draw the districts, again.

 

Before we get started, I had to think like a judge. Judges drew every map within recent memory here in Minnesota (including the current map), so the status quo was a good place to start. The 2nd and 6th had to shed some major territory, with the 7th, 4th, and 5th needing to pick up population. Judges don't draw ugly lines, and try to keep both communities of interest, and counties together as much as possible. This map splits only 5 unnecessary counties. I chose to split Stearns, Beltrami, Goodhue, Washington, and Carver. (Hennepin County needs to be split due to it's large population, and I only split Hennepin County once, as it is now.)

Here is the macroscopic view: 

This has the same basic concept as the current map. An Iron Range/Duluth district (8), a western farm district (7), a southern farm district (1), a St. Paul district (4), a Minneapolis district (5), a suburban Hennepin County district (3), a north suburban district (6), and a south suburban district (2).

 

Here is a zoomed up view of the metro area. 

 

 

District by district rundown.

1st (Blue). This district is very similar to the current 1st, and the border between the 1st and 7th remains unchanged. The 1st adds only portions of Goodhue to get to proper population. I chose Goodhue instead of the neighboring (more DFL-friendly) Rice county, because a judge would look for clean lines, and removing a corner of the 2nd district, instead of putting a chunk of the center of the district makes the districts more compact. Regardless, these few votes don't change the 1st at all, and Walz will hold the district while he wants it. (Likely DFL with Walz, tossup if open)

 

2nd (Green). This is Klines district, and it remains mostly the same except for shedding boundaries around the edges to meet population. For population purposes. This district is very close in PVI to the current 2nd, and Kline is congressman for life if he chooses to stay in congress indefinitely. There is no DFL bench here to speak of. (Safe R with Kline, Likely R if he runs for senate, governor, or retires.)

 

3rd (Purple). I put the 3rd back where it had been foe eons, which is back entirely within Hennepin County, but not crossing into Minneapolis. Not much you can do to shift the PVI of this district, although adding a couple of the inner ring suburbs to replace the tiny bits of Wright and Anoka Counties it had leeched into may make this D+1 instead of EVEN. Regardless, Paulsen is popular, and this district is very ancestrally Republican. (Likely R with Paulsen, Lean R if Open)

 

4th (Red). Picks up southern Washington county, and keeps the other borders coterminous with Ramsey County (St. Paul). Not much to see here, McCollum is safe. Technically, Bachmann lives here, but she wouldn't stand a prayer in this district, nor would she be likely to run. (Safe DFL regardless of candidates)

 

5th. (Yellow) Very close to the current 5th, with the addition of Blaine in Anoka County. This is still one of the most liberal white-majority districts in the country. Ellison is congressman for life (much to my dismay). (Safe DFL)

 

6th (Teal). This is most of the current 6th, with the east and west ends chopped off, and extends north into Chisago and Isanti Counties. Chip Cravaack lives here, but this is mostly Bachmann's territory. Bachmann would steamroll Cravaack in a primary (she is just too well known, and too well funded, even though she underperforms Generic R every cycle). I have a feeling Bachmann is going to make a kamikaze run at the White House, and take a job at Fox after crashing and burning. Cravaack is given a safe district following her departure. (Safe R with Cravaack of open, Likely R with Bachmann).

 

7th (Gray) . Farms, farms, and more farms. Expands to take in most of the rest of Stearns County he doesn't represent, sans St. Cloud. Peterson is beloved by farmers here (he IS the “F” in DFL). Politically, this district still has a strong R+ PVI, but it doesn't change much from what it is now. Peterson will win here, but most other kinds of DFLers would lose. Fortunately, there are a few agri-Dems in the district waiting in the wings. Unfortunately for people on places like HuffPo, and Kos, they will vote just like Peterson if they make it to congress. Just keep in mind that is MUCH preferable to how a Republican in this district would vote. (Likely DFL with Peterson, Lean R if open). 

 

8th (Slate). This district sheds farmland in Wadena county, and exurbs in Chisago and Isanti County. It does that to bring in St. Cloud proper (which actually gave Obama a net of a couple thousand votes). Over all, this will shift the PVI maybe 1 point to towards team blue, but not enough to matter much. This district is very rock-ribbed DFL at the local and legislative level. Cravaack rode a perfect storm to the narrowest of victories, and every other statewide candidate still won the old version of the 8th, and won this incarnation by more. Cravaack would be DOA for reelection here. And sorry Tarryl Clark fans, her chances of winning a primary here are almost zero, even though she lives in the district.

 

Over all, this would give compact, judicially drawn districts. Neither the DFL nor the Republicans will be thrilled with this, but that's about what you can expect with a judge and a redistricting pen.

Alright, I have never actually done a map of any state other than my homestate of Minnesota. But, I figured a place with 4 districts like Nevada would probably be easiest to start with. I know very little about Nevada, politically or culturally, so communities of interest is almost certainly infringed here. This is from the Democratic legislature's perspective, and I doubt Governor Sandoval would sign it.

 

 

 This is the macroscopic view of the state.

This is a zoom in of Clark County

 

 

This is the Reno-Sparks-Carson City region.

 

As to avoid any future headaches with potential VRA challenges, I made only one minority-majority district in Las Vegas. I could have easily made 2, but I didn't find a good reason to do so.

 

District 1: Blue. This is the western half of the Las Vegas, and extends into the Hispanic parts to the W-SW of the city to the California border. 50.6% White

District 2: Purple. This district is the eastern half of Las Vegas with a few inner-ring suburbs (Not Henderson). It is 41% white, but only 37% hispanic, so it is still plurality white.

District 3: Red. This district stretches up the western edge of the state. But the large swaths of land have almost negligible population. This district is dominated by North Las Vegas and Sparks. I threw in a few of the most Hispanic areas of eastern Reno for good measure, but I did so only to balance population. This district is 56% white

District 4: Green, This district is the rest of Nevada. It takes up nearly all of rural central and northern Nevada, as well as the rural parts of Clark County. The population centers here are actually Henderson, the main Republican suburb of Las Vegas, and Reno. These two cities make up over a third of the district's population. It is essentially a Republican vote sink. 68% white.

Alright, I know that some people here have, for better or for worse, critiqued the way I feel my home state should reallocate their 8 (probable) districts. Using the numbers in Dave’s Redistricting Ap, which are probably a little bit off from the actual numbers, I got all the districts within 100. I know the number has to be exact, but given the uncertainty, this is close enough.

First: The big picture

http://i877.photobucket.com/al…

Right to the point of contention, the northern, rural part of the state:

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The 7th (Gray) Peterson’s district remains almost exactly where they were, with the changes coming in the loss of Meeker, McLeod, and Sibley to the drastically changed 2nd district (see below), and the loss of Lincoln to the 1st. The major addition to the district to make up for population was the rest of Stearns county, sans St. Cloud proper. A couple precincts were shuffled in Beltrami to get the numbers right between the 7th and 8th, but nothing of any substance. This district politically is going to be nearly identical to the 7th’s current incarnation.

Safe DFL for Peterson, Lean Republican when he retires

The 8th (Light Blue) Oberstar’s district neither expands to North Dakota (GASP!) nor expands into the exurbs of the Twin Cities. Quite the opposite is true in fact. The 8th loses the exurban/Republican/Don’t-Fit-In-Here counties of Isanti and Chisago. The population is made up by returning Benton County to its ancestral home in the 8th. Also, St. Cloud proper is added to the 8th. Culturally this isn’t the greatest fit, but it was either that or waste the ~3000 Democratic votes to the Republican district. Overall this district will lose counties that gave McCain a margin of ~6000 votes, and adds counties/cities that gave Obama a margin of +1000. This both makes the district more Democratic, and doesn’t screw over Peterson.

Safe DFL for the next decade for Oberstar, or his successor.

http://i877.photobucket.com/al…

This is a close up of the 1st (Blue). It changes nearly nothing at all. The only slight tweaks are the addition of tiny Lincoln County in exchange for a corner of Wabasha County. This is a perfect district for Tim Walz, no need to screw it up.

Safe DFL for Walz. Toss-up/Lean-DFL if he decides on a premature retirement.  

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Here is where the DFL can make huge inroads without doing crazy, outlandish things that have been completely absent in redistricting throughout the state’s history.

2nd (Green). This district doesn’t even closely resemble the current 2nd district. It wraps around from the western to the northern suburbs taking in virtually every loyal Republican county in the state (except Clearwater and Ottertail). McCain won in the realm of 57% here. It includes the conservative portions of Kline’s, Paulsen’s, and Bachmann’s districts. It is safe Republican for whichever of them moves here. Moving would be requied too, as none of them actually live in this district, although Paulsen and Kline are close. They reside in Eden Prairie and Lakeville Respectively

Safe Republican, regardless of candidates

3rd (Purple) This district gets rid of the little flanges into Anoka and Wright County. It also sheds the Republican suburbs/Exurbs like Dayton, Medina, and most importantly Maple Grove. It makes up the population by adding the solidly liberal first ring suburbs of Minneapolis. This district contains the home of Erik Paulsen, but I seriously doubt he would have a chance here. This district shifts easily 5 points to the left, and that is from a starting point of a district Obama carried.

Lean-DFL if Paulsen runs, Likely-DFL if he chooses to run in the neighboring second.

4th (Red) Despite the change in shape, this district is not much different than the current 4th. It adds parts of Washington and Anoka Counties, but the population and cultural base is still Ramsey County, specifically St. Paul.

Safe DFL for McCollum, or anyone.

5th (Yellow) The 5th trades the Hennepin County suburbs for Anoka County suburbs. But this is still heavily Minneapolis, and is Ellison would have no trouble winning reelection for the next 30 years if he wants. (Personally, I hope he hangs it up, because while he is fine politically, he is a HUGE D-bag in person. I watched, in person, his debates in 06, and he is not a good person, nor what I look for in a politician. But that is a bit off topic)

Safe DFL, most liberal district in the state.

6th (Teal) This district looks kinda-sorta like it did in the 1990s, without Anoka County. It certainly does not look like the “claw” shape of the current district. Obama won here, but with only 51-52% of the vote. Bachmann could not win here, but a different Republican could, depending on circumstances. This district is the last “1” in a solid 6-1-1 map.

Toss up of Bachmann doesn’t run, Likely-DFL if she chose to run here.

So this is the way I envision the way Minnesota should/will be redistricted. Thoughts and comments are more than welcome.