Alright, I know that some people here have, for better or for worse, critiqued the way I feel my home state should reallocate their 8 (probable) districts. Using the numbers in Dave’s Redistricting Ap, which are probably a little bit off from the actual numbers, I got all the districts within 100. I know the number has to be exact, but given the uncertainty, this is close enough.
First: The big picture
http://i877.photobucket.com/al…
Right to the point of contention, the northern, rural part of the state:
http://i877.photobucket.com/al…
The 7th (Gray) Peterson’s district remains almost exactly where they were, with the changes coming in the loss of Meeker, McLeod, and Sibley to the drastically changed 2nd district (see below), and the loss of Lincoln to the 1st. The major addition to the district to make up for population was the rest of Stearns county, sans St. Cloud proper. A couple precincts were shuffled in Beltrami to get the numbers right between the 7th and 8th, but nothing of any substance. This district politically is going to be nearly identical to the 7th’s current incarnation.
Safe DFL for Peterson, Lean Republican when he retires
The 8th (Light Blue) Oberstar’s district neither expands to North Dakota (GASP!) nor expands into the exurbs of the Twin Cities. Quite the opposite is true in fact. The 8th loses the exurban/Republican/Don’t-Fit-In-Here counties of Isanti and Chisago. The population is made up by returning Benton County to its ancestral home in the 8th. Also, St. Cloud proper is added to the 8th. Culturally this isn’t the greatest fit, but it was either that or waste the ~3000 Democratic votes to the Republican district. Overall this district will lose counties that gave McCain a margin of ~6000 votes, and adds counties/cities that gave Obama a margin of +1000. This both makes the district more Democratic, and doesn’t screw over Peterson.
Safe DFL for the next decade for Oberstar, or his successor.
http://i877.photobucket.com/al…
This is a close up of the 1st (Blue). It changes nearly nothing at all. The only slight tweaks are the addition of tiny Lincoln County in exchange for a corner of Wabasha County. This is a perfect district for Tim Walz, no need to screw it up.
Safe DFL for Walz. Toss-up/Lean-DFL if he decides on a premature retirement.
http://i877.photobucket.com/al…
Here is where the DFL can make huge inroads without doing crazy, outlandish things that have been completely absent in redistricting throughout the state’s history.
2nd (Green). This district doesn’t even closely resemble the current 2nd district. It wraps around from the western to the northern suburbs taking in virtually every loyal Republican county in the state (except Clearwater and Ottertail). McCain won in the realm of 57% here. It includes the conservative portions of Kline’s, Paulsen’s, and Bachmann’s districts. It is safe Republican for whichever of them moves here. Moving would be requied too, as none of them actually live in this district, although Paulsen and Kline are close. They reside in Eden Prairie and Lakeville Respectively
Safe Republican, regardless of candidates
3rd (Purple) This district gets rid of the little flanges into Anoka and Wright County. It also sheds the Republican suburbs/Exurbs like Dayton, Medina, and most importantly Maple Grove. It makes up the population by adding the solidly liberal first ring suburbs of Minneapolis. This district contains the home of Erik Paulsen, but I seriously doubt he would have a chance here. This district shifts easily 5 points to the left, and that is from a starting point of a district Obama carried.
Lean-DFL if Paulsen runs, Likely-DFL if he chooses to run in the neighboring second.
4th (Red) Despite the change in shape, this district is not much different than the current 4th. It adds parts of Washington and Anoka Counties, but the population and cultural base is still Ramsey County, specifically St. Paul.
Safe DFL for McCollum, or anyone.
5th (Yellow) The 5th trades the Hennepin County suburbs for Anoka County suburbs. But this is still heavily Minneapolis, and is Ellison would have no trouble winning reelection for the next 30 years if he wants. (Personally, I hope he hangs it up, because while he is fine politically, he is a HUGE D-bag in person. I watched, in person, his debates in 06, and he is not a good person, nor what I look for in a politician. But that is a bit off topic)
Safe DFL, most liberal district in the state.
6th (Teal) This district looks kinda-sorta like it did in the 1990s, without Anoka County. It certainly does not look like the “claw” shape of the current district. Obama won here, but with only 51-52% of the vote. Bachmann could not win here, but a different Republican could, depending on circumstances. This district is the last “1” in a solid 6-1-1 map.
Toss up of Bachmann doesn’t run, Likely-DFL if she chose to run here.
So this is the way I envision the way Minnesota should/will be redistricted. Thoughts and comments are more than welcome.
I did try to embed the photographs, but I got sick of failing and getting error messages while trying it, so it’s in hyperlink form.
but your metro districts need some work. MN-04 and MN-05 are too strong, while MN-03 and MN-06 aren’t strong enough. Since there are no Voting Rights Act issues here, there is no reason not to make those adjustments.
I’m sure Oberstar will like his district.
I guess this is the best Dems can do without splitting Minneapolis.
It’s interesting to see an opinion on Keith Ellison from someone who lives there.
would Oberstar still be safe, yet Peterson be made safer? If so I would do that.
My only concern is, did you hit the use new population estimates button on Dave’s? Your MN-2 seems impossibly over-populated based off of current estimates. (Although his estimated population thing isn’t that accurate I think. Im pretty sure the only estimates are county-wide so he extrapolates out the growth to each precinct, which doesnt give any reflection to one precinct growing faster than another within a county.)