Author: possumtracker1991

I wanted to take a look at what redistricting might look like in three Southern states (Alabama, Louisiana, and Maryland) with large black populations if, within each state, three VRA districts were created. Right now, Alabama has one VRA district, Louisiana has one, and Maryland has two; this diary has maps that raise that number to three in each state. I also wanted to take a look at what the political implications of this would be on a state-by-state basis; would Democrats be hurt or helped by such plans? Please read on to find out more and leave your comments and feedback as well. Thanks!

Alabama

Statewide Map

District 1 (Blue): South Alabama-Mobile, Dothan, Montgomery

Demographics: 83% white, 11% black

This is a strongly Republican district that picks up the white parts of South Alabama and then snakes up north past Montgomery. Incumbent 1st district GOP Rep. Jo Bonner would easily win in this district.

District 2 (Green): South/East Alabama-Dothan, Montgomery, Troy, Auburn

Demographics: 48% black, 48% white (black plurality)

This district picks up black areas in South Alabama and Montgomery, and then goes northward all the way to Anniston. This district should be Democratic due to a slight black plurality. While current 2nd district Democratic Rep. Bobby Bright would probably love to have a district like this, he might be vulnerable to a black challenger in a Democratic primary.

District 3 (Purple): East Alabama and Birmingham suburbs/exurbs-Birmingham

Demographics: 85% white, 10% black

This is a very Republican district that essentially combines the eastern half of the current 6th district (Birmingham suburbs and exurbs) with the mostly-white and rural northern areas of the current 3rd district. The homes of two incumbent GOP congressmen, 6th district Rep. Spencer Bacchus (from Vestavia Hills in Jefferson County) and 3rd district Rep. Mike Rogers (from Saks in Calhoun County) are both in this district so they would likely face off in a primary that I think Bacchus would be favored to win.

District 4 (Red): North Alabama-Florence, Madison, Huntsville, Albertville, Gadsden

Demographics: 87% white, 6% black

This is an extremely Republican district in North Alabama that has some of Obama’s worst areas and would be easily won by the probable congressman for the current 5th district after the 2010 elections, Republican Mo Brooks of Huntsville.

District 5 (Yellow): Southwest Alabama-Mobile, Selma, Greenville, Tuscaloosa

Demographics: 51% black, 46% white

This district takes in many of the non-Birmingham areas of the current 7th district in what is known as the Black Belt, and it now reaches down all the way into Mobile. This district has a black majority and would be an open seat almost certainly won by a black Democrat.

District 6 (Teal): Northwest Alabama, Birmingham suburbs/exurbs-Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Cullman

Demographics: 88% white, 6% black

This would be a safe GOP district that merges the western halves of the current 4th and 6th districts and would likely be won by Republican Congressman Robert Aderholt, who lives in Winston County.

District 7 (Gray): Urban Birmingham and North Alabama-Birmingham, Gadsden, Huntsville, Florence

Demographics: 53% black, 41% white

This black-majority district brings the number of VRA districts in Alabama to three by picking up urban Birmingham and then snaking through North Alabama into Gadsden, Huntsville, and Florence. It will be represented by a black Democrat, probably either Teri Sewell or Shelia Smoot.

So overall, Democrats will likely gain from this map. While it essentially closes the door on ever winning any of the 4 white majority districts (all of which are now at least 85% white), it creates 3 districts that should easily fall into Democratic control, unlike the current map, which really only has one safe district for Democrats (the 7th district). So we would see a likely change from either 5R-2D (Bright wins in 2010) or 6R-1D (Bright loses in 2010) to 4R-3D.

Louisiana

Statewide Map

District 1 (Blue): East Louisiana-Baton Rouge, Hammond, Kenner, New Orleans

Demographics: 80% white, 11% black, 6% Hispanic

This is a very conservative and Republican district that picks up white areas between New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Incumbent GOP Reps. Bill Cassidy and Steve Scalise would face off in this district’s Republican primary, and it is about half and half of each of their old districts so neither would really have the advantage of incumbency.

District 2 (Green): South Louisiana and New Orleans-New Orleans, Hammond, Houma

Demographics: 52% black, 39% white

This is essentially a successor to the current black-majority 2nd district, although it must expand south and west to make up for severe population loss from Hurricane Katrina. It retains a black majority, and will easily elect a black Democrat, probably either Cedric Richmond or Juan LaFonta, to Congress.

District 3 (Purple): South Louisiana-New Orleans, Houma, Lafayette

Demographics: 80% white, 12% black

This district has many of the white Cajun areas in the current 3rd district, but now extends to the west to pick up much of Lafayette. This district would likely elect a Republican simply due to its overwhelming whiteness, although there would be a fight in the Republican primary between Hugh Downer of Houma, who will likely be the GOP Rep. for the 3rd district following the 2010 elections, and 7th district Rep. Charles Boustany, whose Lafayette base is now in the 3rd district.

District 4 (Red): West and North Louisiana-Lake Charles, Alexandria, Shreveport, Monroe

Demographics: 82% white, 12% black

This district is intertwined with the new black-majority 5th district, taking up white areas in Western and Northern Louisiana and ending up with only 3 whole parishes, the rest of the parishes in the district being shared with neighboring districts. GOP congressmen Rodney Alexander of Alexandria and John Fleming of Minden (in Webster Parish near Shreveport) would have to battle it out in a Republican primary that Alexander would be favored to win, although either would easily hold the seat in a general election in this heavily white and Protestant district.

District 5 (Yellow): West and North Louisiana-Lake Charles, Alexandria, Nachitoches, Shreveport, Monroe

Demographics: 51% black, 45% white

This new black-majority district snakes around the Mississippi and Arkansas borders and then stretches down all the way to Lake Charles, picking up many black precincts along the way. Perhaps former Congressman Cleo Fields would give it a try in this district, although any black Democrat would be favored to win.

District 6 (Teal): East and South Louisiana-New Iberia, Lafayette, Baton Rouge, Slidell

Demographics: 52% black, 44% white

This is the third black-majority district in the state, taking the black areas of Baton Rouge and Lafayette and the snaking along the border with Mississippi and then all the way down to St. Tammany Parish. It would probably be won by a black Democrat from Baton Rouge or Lafayette.

So Louisiana is another state where Democrats would benefit from having 3 black-majority districts. The balance of power would shift from 6R-1D to 3D-3R, a three seat loss for the Republicans and a two seat gain for the Democrats.

Maryland

Statewide Map

Baltimore Area Map

D.C. Area Map

District 1 (Blue): Eastern Shore and Baltimore, Harford, and Anne Arundel Counties-Annapolis, Aberdeen, Eaton, Salisbury

Demographics: 74% white, 19% black

2008 pres. results: 50% McCain-48% Obama

By trading heavily Republican suburban areas in Baltimore and Harford Counties with the 2nd district for Democratic areas in Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties, this district becomes much more Democratic. While John McCain still narrowly won this district, Frank Kratovil would have no trouble winning this district as it is now mostly limited to Democratic areas and his base on the Eastern Shore.

District 2 (Green): Anne Arundel, Calvert, Harford, and Baltimore Counties-Annapolis, Bowie, Dundalk, Bel Air

Demographics: 86% white, 7% black

2008 pres. results: 59% McCain-39% Obama

This is now a heavily Republican district around Annapolis and Baltimore, a result of the creation of a third black-majority district. It was simply not possible to maintain a Democratic 2nd district and still have the three black-majority districts without threatening Democratic control of the 3rd district. As a result, this district was disproportionately packed with Republicans and gave John McCain a 20% margin of victory. We might finally say hello to Congressman Andy Harris, although he would likely be the only GOP member of Congress from Maryland.

District 3 (Purple): Baltimore, Howard, Montgomery, and Carroll Counties-Gaithersburg, Columbia, Westminster, Towson, Baltimore

Demographics: 69% white, 15% black, 8% Asian, 5% Hispanic

2008 pres. results: 56% Obama-42% McCain

This is a new district that stretches from Montgomery County all the way up to the Pennsylvania border. Both John Sarbanes and Dutch Ruppersberger would likely run in the Democratic primary in this district in order to stay in Congress, although they might split the Baltimore vote, allowing someone from Montgomery or Howard Counties to slip through. A Democrat should win here nonetheless.

District 4 (Red): Frederick, Carroll, and Montgomery Counties-Frederick, Westminster, Rockville, Gaithersburg

Demographics: 66% white, 12% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 10% black

2008 pres. results: 58% Obama-40% McCain

This map is not all bad news for Democrats, as GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett sees his Republican district split in half and replaced with two districts where Obama received 59% of the vote. The new 4th district combines most of the current 8th district’s portion of very Democratic Montgomery County with parts of Frederick and Carroll Counties. It has 8th district Rep. Chris Van Hollen’s home in Kensington and Van Hollen could easily defeat the very conservative Bartlett (who would also be 86 years old by Election Day 2012) in this Democratic district.

District 5 (Yellow): Montgomery, Prince George’s, Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary’s Counties-La Plata, Waldorf, Clinton

Demographics: 55% black, 33% white, 7% Hispanic

2008 pres. results: 78% Obama-21% McCain

The first of Maryland’s black majority districts, half of this super-Democratic district is made up of areas from Democratic Rep. Donna Edwards’ current 4th district and Chris Van Hollen’s 8th district, while the other half of the district comes from Democratic Rep. Steny Hoyer’s current 5th district. This new district is 56% black and contains Edwards’ base in Prince George’s County, although it also has Steny Hoyer’s base in Southern Maryland and the House Majority Leader would no doubt be difficult to topple in a primary. I think a primary would be very competitive between the two incumbents, so Edwards might decide to instead run in the new black-majority 8th district.

District 6 (Teal): Panhandle and Frederick, Montgomery, and Prince George’s Counties-Cumberland, Hagerstown, Frederick, College Park

Demographics: 65% white, 14% black, 12% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 pres. results: 59% Obama-39% McCain

This district is the second nail in the coffin for Roscoe Bartlett. The conservative rednecks living in the Panhandle are placed in the same district as liberal voters in Prince George’s and Montgomery Counties, and the University of Maryland’s campus in College Park is placed in the district as well. While Van Hollen’s home is in the 4th district, he could easily run here and win, even against Roscoe Bartlett. Former 8th liberal Republican Rep. Connie Morrella would have likely defeated Van Hollen here in 2002 though. I really don’t know which of these two districts Van Hollen and Bartlett would run in, but I think they would both elect Democrats.

District 7 (Gray): Baltimore City and Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties-Baltimore

Demographics: 55% black, 38% white

2008 pres. results: 80% Obama-18%  McCain

This black-majority district takes up nearly all of Baltimore City and some surrounding areas. It is very Democratic and would retain Democratic Rep. Elijah Cummings as its representative.

District 8 (Lavender): Baltimore City and Baltimore, Howard, Anne Arundel, Prince George’s, and Montgomery Counties-Baltimore, Columbia, Laurel, Bowie, Greenbelt

Demographics: 55% black, 29% white, 8% Hispanic, 6% Asian

2008 pres. results: 84% Obama-15% McCain

This is the third black-majority district in the state as well as Obama’s best district, picking up black areas in between Prince George’s County and Baltimore. While Democratic Rep. Donna Edwards might choose to run here rather than face Steny Hoyer in a primary, it would likely be an open seat won by a black Democrat.

So it is definitely possible to make three black-majority districts in Maryland. However, would this plan necessarily result in three black representatives being elected? Districts 7 and 8 would easily elect black congressmen, although Steny Hoyer might continue to win in the 5th district despite its new black-majority due to significant establishment support. The three black-majority districts are not an obstacle to toppling Roscoe Bartlett, although they must sacrifice either John Sarbanes or Dutch Ruppersberger. The change after redistricting would be minimal, going from a 7D-1R (Kratovil wins in 2010) or 6D-2R (Kratovil loses in 2010) split to a probable 7D-1R split (assuming Kratovil wins the 1st district seat). Despite the lack of a change in partisan balance under this map, Democrats would probably want to avoid forcing Hoyer into a tough primary and losing Sarbanes or Ruppersberger, so this is one state where three black-majority districts would be a bad thing for Democrats.

Thanks for reading and please leave your comments and feedback!

This diary takes a look at what might have happened if the 2003 Texas redistricting had never occurred. I compared the 2000 demographics and presidential results for the map used in the 2002 elections with the 2008 demographics and presidential results under the same lines. I used Dave’s App to do this, with the Test Data setting to get the political data, but the regular voting district map (without the Test Data setting) to get the correct demographic estimates. I also looked at the shifts for the districts during this time period and elaborated a bit on what might have occurred had this map remained in place for the rest of the decade. Please vote in the survey at the end as well. Thanks and enjoy!

Statewide Map

East Texas



District 1 (Blue); Northeast Texas-Texarkana, Paris, Greenville, Nacogdoches, Marshall

2002 winner and winning percentage: Max Sandlin (D), 56%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	75	16	7	0	651,619
2008 population (est.)	72	15	11	1	683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	-1	+4	+1	+31,798

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
64% Bush-36% Gore	69% McCain-30% Obama	+5% Republican, -6% Democratic

District 2 (Green): East Texas-Lufkin, Orange, Huntsville, Liberty

2002 winner and winning percentage: Jim Turner (D), 61%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	76	14	9	0	651,619
2008 population (est.)	73	13	12	1	683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	-1	+3	+1	+37,712

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
63% Bush-37% Gore	70% McCain-29% Obama	+7% Republican, -8% Democratic

District 4 (Red): North and East Texas-Longview, Tyler, Sherman

2002 winner and winning percentage: Ralph Hall (D), 58%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	77	12	9	1	651,620
2008 population (est.)	72	11	14	1	773,426
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	-1	+5	0	+121,806

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
70% Bush-30% Gore	70% McCain-29% Obama	0% Republican, -1% Democratic

District 9 (Light Blue): East Texas and Harris County-Beaumont, Port Arthur, Galveston, Texas City

2002 winner and winning percentage: Nick Lampson (D), 59%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	60	21	14	3	651,619
2008 population (est.)	56	21	19	3	675,944
Change from 2000 to 2008	-4	0	+5	0	+24,325

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
55% Bush-45% Gore	56% McCain-43% Obama	+1% Republican, -2% Democratic

Dallas/Fort Worth Area



District 3 (Purple):Collin County and northern Dallas County-Richardson, Garland, Plano, McKinney

2002 winner and winning percentage: Sam Johnson (R), 74%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	70	7	14	7	651,620
2008 population (est.)	61	9	18	10	898,778
Change from 2000 to 2008	-9	+2	+4	+3	+247,158

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore	60% McCain-39% Obama	-12% Republican, +11% Democratic

District 5 (Yellow): Dallas County and Central/East Texas-Dallas, Mesquite, Palestine, Athens

2002 winner and winning percentage: Jeb Hensarling (R), 58%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	63	16	18	2	651,620
2008 population (est.)	56	17	23	2	677,043
Change from 2000 to 2008	-7	+1	+5	0	+25,423

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
62% Bush-38% Gore	57% McCain-42% Obama	-5% Republican, +4% Democratic

District 6 (Dark Teal): Tarrant County and Dallas/Fort Worth suburbs and exurbs: Arlington, Ennis, Cleburne, Corsicana

2002 winner and winning percentage: Joe Barton (R), 70%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	72	10	14	3	651,620
2008 population (est.)	67	11	18	3	748,734
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	+1	+4	0	+97,114

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore	61% McCain-38% Obama	-6% Republican, +5% Democratic

District 12 (Periwinkle): Tarrant and Parker Counties-Weatherford, Fort Worth, Keller

2002 winner and winning percentage: Kay Granger (R), 92%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	71	5	20	2	651,619
2008 population (est.)	64	5	26	3	788,643
Change from 2000 to 2008	-7	0	+6	+1	+137,024

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore	65% McCain-34% Obama	-2% Republican, +1% Democratic

District 24 (Dark Purple): Dallas and Tarrant Counties-Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Duncanville

2002 winner and winning percentage: Martin Frost (D), 65%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	35	22	38	3	651,619
2008 population (est.)	28	22	45	4	836,571
Change from 2000 to 2008	-7	0	+7	+1	+184,952

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
46% Bush-54% Gore	36% McCain-63% Obama	-10% Republican, +9% Democratic

District 26 (Dark Gray): Denton, Tarrant, and Collin Counties-Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, McKinney

2002 winner and winning percentage: Michael Burgess (R), 75%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	78	5	11	4	651,619
2008 population (est.)	70	7	16	6	897,454
Change from 2000 to 2008	-8	+2	+5	+2	+245,835

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
73% Bush-27% Gore	63% McCain-36% Obama	-10% Republican, +9% Democratic

District 30 (Salmon): Dallas County: Dallas, Irving

2002 winner and winning percentage: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D), 74%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	25	41	31	2	651,620
2008 population (est.)	19	39	39	2	726,340
Change from 2000 to 2008	-6	-2	+8	0	+74,720

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
31% Bush-69% Gore	21% McCain-78% Obama	-10% Republican, +9% Democratic

District 32 (Burnt Orange): Dallas County-Dallas, Farmer’s Branch, University/Highland Park, Irving

2002 winner and winning percentage: Pete Sessions (R), 68%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	55	9	27	6	651,619
2008 population (est.)	44	9	38	7	703,588
Change from 2000 to 2008	-11	0	+11	+1	+51,969

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
65% Bush-35% Gore	53% McCain-46% Obama	-12% Republican, +13% Democratic

Houston Area



District 7 (Gray): Harris County-western Houston, the Villages

2002 winner and winning percentage: John Culberson (R), 89%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	50	11	26	11	651,620
2008 population (est.)	43	11	32	12	746,517
Change from 2000 to 2008	-7	0	+6	+1	+94,897

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
68% Bush-32% Gore	55% McCain-44% Obama	-13% Republican, +12% Democratic

District 8 (Dark Lavender): Harris and Montgomery Counties-Jersey Village, Humble, Conroe

2002 winner and winning percentage: Kevin Brady (R), 93%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	77	5	13	3	651,619
2008 population (est.)	71	6	18	4	846,293
Change from 2000 to 2008	-6	+1	+5	+1	+194,674

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
78% Bush-22% Gore	71% McCain-28% Obama	-7% Republican, +6% Democratic

District 18 (Banana Yellow): Harris County-Houston

2002 winner and winning percentage: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D), 77%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	21	42	33	3	651,620
2008 population (est.)	18	41	38	3	779,948
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	-1	+5	0	+128,328

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
26% Bush-74% Gore	22% McCain-77% Obama	-4% Republican, +3% Democratic

District 22 (Brown): Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Harris Counties-Rosenberg, Sugarland, Pearland, Pasadena

2002 winner and winning percentage: Tom DeLay (R), 63%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	60	10	20	8	651,619
2008 population (est.)	52	12	23	12	866,297
Change from 2000 to 2008	-8	+2	+3	+4	+214,678

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
68% Bush-32% Gore	59% McCain-40% Obama	-9% Republican, +8% Democratic

District 25 (Dark Pink): Fort Bend and Harris Counties-Houston, Belaire, University Place, South Houston, Baytown

2002 winner and winning percentage: Chris Bell (D), 55%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	37	23	34	5	651,619
2008 population (est.)	32	22	40	5	683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	-1	+6	0	+156,401

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
48% Bush-52% Gore	41% McCain-59% Obama	-7% Republican, +7% Democratic

District 29 (Grayish Green): Harris County-Houston, Jacinto City, Galena Park, South Houston

2002 winner and winning percentage: Gene Green (D), 95%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	20	15	62	2	651,620
2008 population (est.)	16	13	68	2	825,305
Change from 2000 to 2008	-4	-2	+6	0	+173,685

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
39% Bush-61% Gore	31% McCain-69% Obama	-8% Republican, +8% Democratic

Central Texas



District 10 (Magenta): Travis County-Austin

2002 winner and winning percentage: Lloyd Doggett (D), 84%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	50	11	33	4	651,619
2008 population (est.)	45	10	38	5	809,987
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	-1	+5	+1	+158,368

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
47% Bush-53% Gore	28% McCain-70% Obama	-19% Republican, +17% Democratic

District 11 (Lime Green): Central Texas-Waco, Georgetown, Temple, Killeen

2002 winner and winning percentage: Chet Edwards (D), 52%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	64	15	16	2	651,620
2008 population (est.)	61	15	20	2	742,620
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+4	0	+91,000

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
67% Bush-33% Gore	61% McCain-38% Obama	-6% Republican, +5% Democratic

District 14 (Bronze): Texas Hill Country and Texas Coastline-Victoria, San Marcos, Calhoun, Seguin

2002 winner and winning percentage: Ron Paul (R), 68%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	58	8	32	1	651,620
2008 population (est.)	54	8	35	1	751,893
Change from 2000 to 2008	-4	0	+3	0	+100,273

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
66% Bush-34% Gore	62% McCain-37% Obama	-4% Republican, +3% Democratic

District 21 (Maroon): Central/West Texas-San Antonio, Austin, New Braunfels

2002 winner and winning percentage: Lamar Smith (R), 73%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	77	2	17	2	651,619
2008 population (est.)	74	2	20	3	779,551
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+3	+1	+127,932

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
73% Bush-27% Gore	62% McCain-37% Obama	-11% Republican, +10% Democratic

District 31 (Beige): Central Texas and Houston suburbs/exurbs: Round Rock, Bryan, Sealy, Katy

2002 winner and winning percentage: John Carter (R), 69%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	69	9	17	3	651,620
2008 population (est.)	64	9	21	4	780,639
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	0	+4	+1	+129,019

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore	60% McCain-38% Obama	-12% Republican, +10% Democratic

West Texas



District 13 (Tan): West Texas-Wichita Falls, Amarillo

2002 winner and winning percentage: Mac Thornberry (R), 79%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	70	6	22	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	65	6	26	1	654,677
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	0	+4	0	+3,058

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
75% Bush-25% Gore	76% McCain-23% Obama	+1% Republican, -2% Democratic

District 16 (Bright Green): El Paso County: El Paso

2002 winner and winning percentage: Silvestre Reyes (D), unopposed

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	17	3	78	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	14	3	81	1	683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+3	0	+59,428

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore	33% McCain-66% Obama	-8% Republican, +7% Democratic

District 17 (Iris): West Texas: Abilene, San Angelo

2002 winner and winning percentage: Charlie Stenholm (D), 51%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	75	4	20	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	71	4	23	1	683,417
Change from 2000 to 2008	-4	0	+3	0	+16,986

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
72% Bush-28% Gore	75% McCain-24% Obama	+3% Republican, -4% Democratic

District 19 (Pea Green): West Texas-Lubbock, Big Spring, Midland, Odessa

2002 winner and winning percentage: Larry Combest (R), 92%

2003 special election winner and winning percentage: Randy Neugebauer (R), 51%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	58	6	34	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	53	6	39	1	689,654
Change from 2000 to 2008	-5	0	+5	0	+38,035

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
76% Bush-24% Gore	73% McCain-27% Obama	-3% Republican, +3% Democratic

San Antonio and South Texas

District 15 (Tangerine): South Texas- McAllen, Kingsville

2002 winner and winning percentage: Ruben Hinojosa (D), unopposed

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	17	3	78	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	14	3	81	1	711,047
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+3	0	+59,428

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore	33% McCain-66% Obama	-8% Republican, +7% Democratic

District 20 (Light Pink): Bexar County-San Antonio

2002 winner and winning percentage: Charlie Gonzalez, unopposed

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	24	5	68	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	21	5	71	2	776,861
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+3	+1	+125,242

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
43% Bush-57% Gore	36% McCain-63% Obama	-7% Republican, +6% Democratic

District 23 (Light Blue): West and South Texas: El Paso, Eagle Pass, Laredo, San Antonio

2002 winner and winning percentage: Henry Bonilla (R), 52%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	30	1	67	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	27	1	69	1	728,212
Change from 2000 to 2008	-3	0	+2	0	+76,593

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
59% Bush-41% Gore	50% McCain-49% Obama	-9% Republican, +8% Democratic

District 27 (Spring Green): South Texas-Corpus Christi, Harlingen, Brownsville

2002 winner and winning percentage: Solomon Ortiz, 61%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	25	2	72	1	651,619
2008 population (est.)	21	2	75	1	717,846
Change from 2000 to 2008	-4	0	+3	0	+66,227

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
49% Bush-51% Gore	43% McCain-56% Obama	-6% Republican, +5% Democratic

District 28 (Rose): South Texas and Bexar County: San Antonio, McAllen

2002 winner and winning percentage: Ciro Rodriguez (D), 71%

	% white	% black	% Hispanic	% Asian	Total district population
2000 population	21	8	70	1	651,620
2008 population (est.)	19	7	72	1	761,316
Change from 2000 to 2008	-2	-1	+2	0	+109,696

2000 presidential results	2008 presidential results	Partisan swing from 2000 to 2008
41% Bush-59% Gore	36% McCain-63% Obama	-5% Republican, +4% Democratic

So what would have happened in the past three elections had this map stayed in place for the rest of the decade? Often people assume that the Anglo Democratic incumbents who were targeted would have been reelected had the redistricting not occurred. This is definitely true in the case of Martin Frost, Lloyd Doggett, and Chris Bell, whose already Democratic and urban districts have shifted even more to the left since 2000. But the other Anglo Democrats largely came from more rural, Republican-leaning areas, and their districts all went for Bush in 2000. This list includes Max Sandlin, Jim Turner, Ralph Hall, Nick Lampson, Chet Edwards, and Charles Stenholm. Now let’s look at a county map of Texas showing the change between 2000 and 2008, with the congressional districts where Gore outperformed Obama superimposed over the map.



Despite a roughly 4% move towards the Democrats statewide between 2000 and 2008, there were 6 congressional districts where Obama  actually did worse than Gore: TX-01 (Max Sandlin (D)), TX-02 (Jim Turner (D)), TX-04 (Ralph Hall (D)), TX-09 (Nick Lampson (D)), TX-13 (Mac Thornberry (R)), and TX-17 (Charlie Stenholm (D)). Besides TX-13, all of these districts elected Democrats in 2002. In addition, all of the Anglo Democrats elected in districts that Bush won in 2000 saw their districts become more Republican over time, with one exception. TX-11 in Central Texas would have become notably more Democratic during this time period, and  its representative, Chet Edwards, is the only one of these men still in office as a Democrat.

However, I am not convinced that the marked rightward shift would have occurred inevitably had the boundaries not changed in the 2003 redistricting. Many residents in these districts were trending Republican at the presidential level, but felt comfortable continuing to vote for Democrats at the congressional level. But in 2004, the redrawn districts included areas that had previously been represented by Republicans or by other targeted Democratic members, meaning the advantage of incumbency was greatly diminished. This led to the defeat, party switching, or retirement of all the legislators listed above, but I believe, also contributed to these areas becoming more Republican at the presidential level in 2004 and 2008. Without the option to vote for a familiar incumbent Democrat for Congress further down the ballot, voters felt less inclined to vote for a Democrat at any level, including President. Had the 2003 redistricting not occurred, I believe not only that several of these lawmakers might still be in office, but Obama may have even performed better in these districts in 2008.

Other than the representatives just discussed, I believe that all of the other Democratic and Republican incumbents would still be in office right now, with the possible exceptions of John Culberson (R, 7th) and Henry Bonilla (R, 23rd), whose districts would have become much more competitive by the end of the decade. But I think this analysis shows that in the long-term, Texas is turning blue, and it is only a matter of time before the shifts to the Democrats in the Houston area, the Dallas/Forth Worth Area, and Central Texas finally push Texas into the Democratic column.

I thought it would be interesting to use Dave’s Redistricting App to show that it was possible to create minority-majority districts in places that people might not necessarily expect, yet are indeed possible. I know that most of these districts will probably never be created, but it was an interesting chance to see what districts could be created. Technically, the definition of a majority-minority district according to the Supreme Court is any district that is less than 50% white (a coalition district), not necessarily a majority for one specific group. So some of these districts are +50% for one group, such as black or Hispanic, others have a plurality for another group, while others are just less than 50% white. So here are some of the districts I looked at:

California

Racial stats: 51% Asian, 29% white, 12% Hispanic, 4% other, 3% black

This is an Asian majority district in the Bay Area. While several current districts have an Asian plurality with current Census data, none of them have an Asian majority. This district would probably elect an Asian representative, most likely Rep. Mike Honda, who already represents many Asian areas in San Jose. I think this might be the first Asian majority district to ever exist outside of Hawaii.

Colorado

Racial stats: 51% Hispanic, 37% white, 7% black, 3% Asian, 1% Native American, 1% other

It was actually possible to create a district in the Denver area that is majority-Hispanic. I linked Hispanic areas in the cities of Lakewood, Denver, Commerce City, Longmont, Brighton, and Greeley. Most of the voters come from Diana DeGette’s 1st district and Ed Perlmutter’s 7th district, although Jared Polis’s 2nd district and Betty Markey’s 4th district also lose some voters. I assume this district would elect a Democrat, possibly Diana DeGette, or possibly someone else.

Connecticut

Racial stats: 43% white, 27% black, 24% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 3% other

By linking minority areas in the cities of Bridgeport, New Haven, Waterbury, New Britain, and Hartford, it was possible to create a district that is majority-minority in Connecticut. The district has the homes of John Larson and Rosa DeLauro, and takes in all of the major urban centers in the four eastern and central districts, so it would probably help Republicans in some of the other districts. While the district is less than 50% white, it is almost evenly split between the district’s Hispanic and black populations, so it would be interesting to see what would happen in an election here.

Indiana

Racial stats: 45% black, 43% white, 9% Hispanic, 2% other, 1% Asian

By connecting heavily black areas in Indianapolis and Gary, it is possible to create a district that is plurality (yet not majority) black. I assume that Andre Carson would run here and win, although he would probably be challenged in the primary by Pete Visclosky. However, this district is more Indianapolis, so I think Carson would defeat Visclosky. This district would be incredibly Democratic either way, I’m sure Obama broke 75% here, maybe even 80%.

New Jersey

Racial stats: 39% white, 34% black, 21% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 2% other

This district connects minority areas in Atlantic City, Camden, and Trenton, and could probably be made even less white than this version is. Battle Royale between John Adler and Robert Andrews that would allow a minority candidate to slip through the primary? Thanks to andgarden for this idea.

New Mexico

1st district (blue): 53% Hispanic, 37% white, 5% Native American, 2% other, 2% black, 1% Asian

2nd district (green): 51% Hispanic, 42% white, 4% Native American, 1% black, 1% other, 1% Asian

3rd district (purple): 55% white, 22% Hispanic, 17% Native American, 2% other, 2% black, 1% Asian

As it stands now, all three New Mexico districts are majority-minority, although Dave’s Redistricting App shows a Hispanic majority in only one district, the current NM-02, with updated 2008 numbers. So I wanted to see if it was possible to create not just one, but two Hispanic majority districts. I accomplished this task without too much difficulty, although I admit that it looks a bit strange. The 2nd district remains almost unchanged, although it picks up Torrance County and Hispanic-majority San Miguel County and loses the cities of Carlsbad and Hobbs. Meanwhile, the city of Albuquerque is split in half, along with the northern and eastern edges of the state. The Hispanic western half of Albuquerque as well as other Hispanic areas to the north and east of the 2nd district, as well as Santa Fe go into the 1st district. Meanwhile, the mostly white eastern half of Albuquerque is put into the sprawling 3rd district, which goes from Gallup and Farmington in the northwest all the way down to Hobbs in the southeast.

This would set up an interesting chain of events assuming the three Democratic congressmen currently in office (Heinrich, Teague, and Lujan) were still in office. No one would probably want to run in the new 3rd district, which is the white-majority district and the most Republican of the three. Teague would most likely run in the 2nd district, which is similar to his current district, although he would have to move as his home in Hobbs is now in the 3rd district. Meanwhile, Lujan and Heinrich would probably face off in the 3rd district, although I imagine Lujan would be the favorite since he represents much of this district already and there is now a Hispanic majority in the district. Meanwhile, a Republican would likely win the 3rd district seat, although perhaps I am wrong since New Mexico is a pretty Democratic state on the whole and this district still has significant Hispanic (22%) and Native American (17%) populations. This map would never occur with a Democratic legislature/governor, although perhaps the Republicans would attempt this if they controlled the state government, which is highly unlikely for now.

Ohio

Racial stats: 53% black, 42% white, 2% other, 1% Asian, 1% Hispanic

This district actually inspired the rest of the diary after I thought of it over the summer. This new majority-black district links African-American areas in the cities of Cincinnati, Dayton, and Columbus, and manages to look cleaner than even the current NC-12 (Mel Watt’s district). It would almost certainly elect a black Democrat, and at the same time would take pressure off of other Republicans such as Pat Tiberi and Mike Turner. If Steve Chabot was elected in 2010, he would probably have to run against Boehner or Schmidt in the primary as this district would take up much of the current OH-01’s turf in Cincinnati. If Steve Driehaus hung on in 2010, I think he would probably lose the primary to an African-American, although who knows what would happen.

Also, several people have said that they have been unable to keep OH-10 as a majority-black district in Cleveland without going into Akron.

It is indeed possible, here is a map:

Racial stats: 50% black, 41% white, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian, 1% other

The main way I did this was by taking a lot of the population from Dennis Kucinich’s district, which puts his district 270,000 people in the red, which makes it almost a given his district will be combined with Sutton’s district in my opinion.

Texas

Racial stats: 44% white, 33% black, 19% Hispanic, 1% Asian, 1% other

I know that there are a lot of pockets of black and Hispanic voters in East Texas, so I wanted to see if it would be possible to make a minority-majority district in East Texas without going into Houston or Dallas at all. So I was able to make a meandering district that picks up minority voters in Galveston, Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, Huntsville, Lufkin, Longview, Tyler, Texarkana, and Paris. It looks a bit like Cleo Fields’ old district in neighboring Louisiana, although this district emerges at just 33% black. Still, that might be enough to put a black Democrat through the primary and into office, as the entire district is just 44% white overall and many of those white voters are Republicans and wouldn’t vote in the Democratic primary anyway. I made this district before Dave put in the partisan data, so I haven’t calculated the presidential numbers yet, although I imagine that it was probably in the low 50s for McCain, nowhere near as Republican as the current East Texas districts.

So I know that many of these districts are highly theoretical, but I still thought it was an interesting exercise in seeing what is possible and what may even be required by law someday as voting rights law evolves. Let me know what you think of these districts and this subject!

I had been working on Texas maps for a few months but wasn’t fully sure about how my districts would turn out without political data. Now that Dave’s Redistricting App has political data for Texas, I have created a 36 seat map that should produce a 25-11 GOP majority. All current incumbents remain safe for the near future, with the exception of Chet Edwards, whose seat is completely dismantled. Four new seats are created, one for the Dems, and three for the GOP. It was interesting to see what’s possible, though I definitely wouldn’t support this plan in real life. Here are some maps as well as my analysis of each district:

Whole State

The Districts

East Texas

District 1 (Blue): East Texas-Tyler, Longview, Texarkana; Louie Gohmert (R)

New 2008 results: 68% McCain-32% Obama

Old 2008 results: 69% McCain-31% Obama

Racial stats: 70% white, 20% black, 8% Hispanic

This is still a solidly-Republican district in East Texas, although the district moves north slightly. Louie Gohmert or any Republican will be more than safe here.

Houston

District 2 (Dark Green): Montgomery County, Humble, Northern Harris County, Fort Bend County; Ted Poe (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 60% McCain-40% Obama

Racial stats: 66% white, 18% Hispanic, 11% black, 5% Asian

This district loses nearly all of its territory in East Texas, including Democratic areas in Liberty, Port Arthur, and Beaumont. It now reaches into Montgomery County. It also stretches down into Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties, as well as Pasadena to help shore up Pete Olson. Still a safe GOP district, and the Republican performance in fact increases.

District 7 (Gray): Houston and western Harris County, Katy; John Culberson (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 65% white, 20% Hispanic, 9% Asian, 6% black

This district remains, at its core, a heavily Republican district, and in fact becomes more Republican, although the demographics are shifting. Culberson will probably not be in much danger anytime soon seeing as he faced a decent opponent in 2008 and still did very well. The district had to lose some of its Republican areas in the northern half to help create TX-36, a new Republican district, but gains areas to the west from TX-10

District 8 (Light Blueish Purple): Montgomery County, East Texas; Kevin Brady (R)

New 2008 results: 63% McCain-36% Obama

Old 2008 results:  74% McCain-26% Obama

Racial stats: 71% white, 19% black, 8% Hispanic

This district sees a huge drop in Republican performance to help shore up some neighboring districts, but it should not put the GOP in any electoral danger anytime soon. It loses territory in Montgomery County to TX-02 and the new Republican TX-36 and picks up the Democratic areas of Liberty, Beaumont, and Port Arthur from TX-02. Maybe with the diminished influence of Montgomery County Jim Turner or Nick Lampson could have won here in 2004.

District 9 (Light Blue): Southern Harris County; Al Green (D)

New 2008 results: 74% Obama-25% McCain

Old 2008 results: 77% Obama-23% McCain

Racial stats: 34% black, 32% Hispanic, 21% white, 13% Asian

This district keeps a black plurality and remains safely Democratic, so Al Green should be happy and protected from a primary challenge by a Hispanic for the time being. The district became 3 points less Democratic for contiguity reasons, but changed very little.

District 14 (Bronze): Galveston, Brazoria County, Texas coastline; Ron Paul (R)

New 2008 results: 64% McCain-35% Obama

Old 2008 results: 66% McCain-33% Obama

Racial stats: 63% white, 22% Hispanic, 12% black

This district loses its share of Fort Bend County as well as all of Victoria County, but it gains all of Galveston County from TX-22 and some areas from TX-15 and TX-27. Republican performance decreases somewhat, but Ron Paul or any Republican should still be safe here for a long time.

District 18 (Banana Yellow): Houston; Sheila Jackson-Lee (D)

New 2008 results: 83% Obama-17% McCain

Old 2008 results: 77% Obama-22% McCain

Racial stats: 49% black, 31% Hispanic, 15% white

This is now the most Democratic district in Texas and also the most partisan for either party, with a whopping 66% margin for Obama. The black percentage rises to 49%, which will probably isolate Sheila Jackson-Lee from a Hispanic primary challenge, although Al Green may push for some of those black voters for his own district. The Republican and competitive areas on the western edge of the district are lost to the new TX-36, and in return the district picks up some more territory to the south from TX-09.

District 22 (Brown): Sugar Land, Pearland, Pasadena, Rosenberg; Pete Olson (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 62% white, 19% Hispanic, 11% Asian, 8% black

This already Republican district becomes even more GOP-friendly, and the district shrinks, losing Democratic areas in Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties to TX-02 and all of its territory in Galveston County to TX-14. Pete Olson should be more than okay for now, although the demographics in the district may shift over the next decade. He would probably have performed better against Lampson in 2008 in this district as it lacks now lacks any of Galveston County.

District 29 (Light Grayish Olive): Houston; Gene Green (D)

New 2008 results: 63% Obama-37% McCain

Old 2008 results: 62% Obama-38% McCain

Racial stats: 66% Hispanic, 22% white, 10% black

This district is essentially unchanged from its current form as a Democratic and Hispanic-majority East Houston district, so the only thing Gene Green has to worry about is a Hispanic primary challenger, although that hasn’t been a losing issue for him yet over the last 18 years.

District 36 (Mango): Houston, Conroe, Montgomery County; new Republican district

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 65% white, 23% Hispanic, 7% black, 5% Asian

I thought there was still room in the Houston area to create a new Republican district without really weakening any Republican incumbents and it was indeed possible to so. The district takes all the Republican western parts of Sheila Jackson-Lee’s district and also takes a bit from Culberson, Poe, and McCaul’s districts, although it doesn’t put any of them in serious danger electorally. It also gets a big GOP boost by taking a lot of of Montgomery County from TX-08, which pushes it over the 60% mark. If the Republicans can’t win this new seat it would be shocking.

Dallas/Forth Worth Area

District 3 (Grapy Purple): Plano, Garland; Sam Johnson (R)

New 2008 results: 57 % McCain-42% Obama

Old 2008 results: 57% McCain-42% Obama

Racial stats: 66% white, 16% Hispanic, 9% black, 9% Asian

This district’s 2008 results remain the same, but the district itself changes. The district moves north and east to take in some Collin County areas from TX-04 and loses some Republican areas in Plano to make TX-32 safer. This district should remain in GOP hands for the immediate future, even after Sam Johnson retires.

District 4 (Red): North Texas border counties, Fort Worth suburbs, Denton, Collin County; Ralph Hall (R)

New 2008 results: 67% McCain-32% Obama

Old 2008 results: 69% McCain-30% Obama

Racial stats: 80% white, 10% Hispanic, 7% black

This district becomes a bit less Republican, losing some of its East Texas counties to TX-01 and TX-05 and some of its Collin County territory. It also picks up Democratic areas in Denton to strengthen TX-26. It’s more than safe for Hall or any Republican, although it’s quite different from the East Texas-based district that Hall was elected from earlier in his career.

District 5 (Yellow): Northeast Dallas, rural East Texas counties; Jeb Hensarling (R)

New 2008 results: 63% McCain-36% Obama

Old 2008 results: 63% McCain-36 Obama

Racial stats: 72% white, 14% Hispanic, 12 % black

This district changes geographically but the political realities remain mostly the same, with the district losing some Democratic areas to TX-30 and the rural East Texas part of the district moving north somewhat. Still a safe GOP seat for a while to come.

District 6 (Dark Teal): Arlington, Forth Worth suburbs, Ennis; Joe Barton (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 60% McCain-40% Obama

70% white, 14% Hispanic, 11% white

The district remains essentially in its present form, although it loses some of the southern parts of the district to TX-17. The district becomes more Republican as it loses some Democratic areas in Tarrant County.

District 12 (Periwinkle): Forth Worth, Weatherford; Kay Granger (R)

New 2008 results: 60% McCain-39% Obama

Old 2008 results: 63% McCain-36% Obama

Racial stats: 64% white, 25% Hispanic, 6% black

This district becomes smaller in area as it loses Wise County and much of Parker County to TX-26, but it remains quite Republican. That combined with Kay Granger’s popularity in Forth Worth should keep it red.

District 24 (Dark Purple): Lewisville, Irving, Carollton, Hurst; Kenny Marchant (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 55% McCain-44% Obama

Racial stats: 71% white, 15% Hispanic, 8% Asian, 6% black

While this district may be trending Democratic in the long-term, the southern parts of the district that were more Democratic such as Grand Prairie and Duncanville are now in the new TX-35. The new district is also 71% white, which counters many of the demographic shifts over the past district. The result is a 7% jump in Republican performance, which should keep Kenny Marchant or another Republican safe for the next decade.

District 26 (Dark Gray): Denton suburbs, Fort Worth, Flower Mound, Wise/Parker counties; Michael Burgess (R)

New 2008 results: 62% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 71% white, 14% black, 12% Hispanic

Any improvements that Democrats have made in Fort Worth and Denton County will be cancelled out by this plan. This already Republican district picks up most of the Wise and Parker County areas from TX-12, and the Democratic parts of Denton go to TX-04, which remains quite Republican as well. I didn’t touch the Fort Worth part of the district, which is a remnant of the dismantling of Martin Frost’s old TX-24 and has a lot of Democrats, but it shouldn’t matter too much for now because of Republican strength elsewhere. The district should be a safe GOP hold throughout the decade.

District 30 (Orangish Pink): Dallas; Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)

New 2008 results: 79% Obama-21% McCain

Old 2008 results: 82% Obama-18% McCain

Racial stats: 39% black, 32% Hispanic, 27% white

This remains a heavily Democratic, black-plurality district based in metro Dallas that Eddie Bernice Johnson should be more than happy with. It changes very little although it trades a little territory with TX-05 and TX-32, as well as the new TX-35.

District 32 (Burnt Orange): Dallas, Plano, Richardson, University/Highland Park; Pete Sessions (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 53% McCain-46% Obama

Racial stats: 75% white, 16% Hispanic, 6% black

Perhaps no GOP district swung more to the Democrats than Pete Sessions’ TX-32, which gave John McCain a measly 7% margin of victory in 2008. The district in its current form has only a white plurality, although now it is 74% white. The district becomes more Republican by expanding north into Plano and losing minority areas in Irving and Cockrell Hill to the new TX-35, so Pete Sessions should be safe in his new district, although who knows how demographics will change over the next decade.

District 35 (Grapish Purple): Dallas, Duncanville, Fort Worth, Irving, Cockrell Hill; new Democratic district

New 2008 results: 63% Obama-35% McCain

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 38% white, 35% Hispanic, 20% black, 6% Asian

In order to make TX-24, TX-26, and TX-32 more safely Republican, I thought it was necessary to draw a new Democratic seat in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The population growth in the area requires at least one new district around here, and the GOP is stretched pretty thin as it is. So this very-Democratic majority-minority district, which is a bit like Martin Frost’s 2002-2004 district, is created as a result. I think it will probably elect a Hispanic, but I don’t know what the voting-age stats for the district, so maybe Hispanics have less influence than it would seem from the surface. This should be a safe Democratic pickup.

Austin/Central Texas

District 10 (Magenta): Austin/northern Travis County, Hays County, western Harris County; Mike McCaul (R)

New 2008 results: 58% McCain-40% Obama

Old 2008 results: 55% McCain-44% Obama

Racial stats: 74% white, 14% Hispanic, 6% black, 5% Asian

This district has been trending more Democratic and it remains similar to its current form, with a few tweaks to make it more Republican as McCain’s 2008 performance increases by 3 points. It loses some of its Democratic areas in Austin and takes in the more conservative areas of Travis County in the north and west, as well as the conservative western half of Hays County. The eastern half of the district, especially in Harris County, loses its influence somewhat as a result. Also, the Hispanic population is reduced to just 14%. This is now much friendlier turf for Mike McCaul.

District 17 (Dark Blueish Purple): Forth Worth suburbs, Bryan, Huntsville, Lufkin, several rural East Texas counties; Chet Edwards (D) or Republican pickup

New 2008 results: 67% McCain-32% Obama

Old 2008 results: 67% McCain-32% Obama

Racial stats: 69% white, 15% black, 13% Hispanic

Chet Edwards will have a difficult time winning reelection with this map, as he sees his current district dismantled. His base in Waco is put in a new heavily Republican 33rd district along with Wichita Falls and West Texas, while TX-17 retains the more hostile parts of his current district and picks up Republican areas to the east from TX-06, TX-08, and TX-01. I think that Edwards would run in this district as it has more of his current territory, although the East Texas parts of the district would probably be very hostile to him. But Edwards is a fighter and may well survive in this district, just as he has in his current district.

District 25 (Dark Pink): Austin, San Marcos; Lloyd Doggett (D)

New 2008 results: 68% Obama-31% McCain

Old 2008 results: 59% Obama-40% McCain

Racial stats: 51% white, 34% Hispanic, 10% black, 5% Asian

In order to make TX-10 safer for McCaul and create a new Republican TX-34, this district becomes even more of an Austin district and a Democratic stronghold, with Obama’s performance increasing by 9 points to a whopping 68%. The GOP has kind of already ceded this district to Lloyd Doggett, and he will have a much friendlier district.

District 31 (Beige): Temple, Williamson County, Brady, rural West Texas counties

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-37% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-42% Obama

Racial stats: 75% white, 16% Hispanic, 6% black

This district becomes more Republican in order to protect John Carter from any possible shifts in Williamson County over the next decade. His district loses Killeen and Temple and some of the northern counties, but gains area in West Texas from TX-11 and TX-21. It should remain easily Republican for the near future.

District 33 (Ocean Blue): Waco, Wichita Falls, North Texas border counties; Chet Edwards (D) or new Republican district

New 2008 results: 71% McCain-29% Obama

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 77% white, 13% Hispanic, 8% black

This district is heavily Republican and combines parts of West and North Texas from TX-13 such as Wichita Falls, Erath County from TX-31, and parts of Chet Edwards’ 17th district, including his base in Waco. Edwards could run here because it has parts of his old district, most importantly Waco, but it would be an uphill battle given the new territory in North/West Texas. If Edwards doesn’t run here, consider it a safe GOP pickup.

West Texas

District 11 (Lime Green): Midland/Odessa, San Angelo, Killeen; Mike Conaway (R)

New 2008 results: 68% McCain-31% Obama

Old 2008 results: 76% McCain-24% Obama

Racial stats: 57% white, 29% Hispanic, 10% black

While the Republican performance drops 8 points from the current district, it remains extremely Republican. The district loses much of its northern territory to TX-19, and as a result, it shifts east and south to take in territory from TX-21 and TX-23. It also takes in the Democratic areas of Killeen in Bell County, which in turn helps make TX-31 more Republican.

District 13 (Tannish Brown): Amarillo, Abilene; Mac Thornberry (R)

New 2008 results: 77% McCain-22% Obama

Old 2008 results: 77% McCain-23% Obama

Racial stats: 70% white, 23% Hispanic, 5% black

This is still the most Republican district in Texas and one of the most Republican districts in the nation. It changes significantly, losing Wichita Falls and most of the eastern territory to the new TX-33, but picks up Abilene and shifts south into the current TX-19. Interestingly, it is quite possible that if Charlie Stenholm had run in this district in 2004 he could have survived as it has much of his rural base and Abilene. But no other Democrat will win this district for a long time.

District 16 (Bright Green): El Paso; Silvestre Reyes (D)

New 2008 results: 65% Obama-34% McCain

Old 2008 results: 66% Obama-34% McCain

Racial stats: 76% Hispanic, 18% white

This district doesn’t change much at all and remains based in El Paso as a heavily Democratic and Hispanic district. Silvestre Reyes will be in office for as long as he wants.

District 19 (Olive Green): Lubbock, West/Central Texas, Temple; Randy Neugebauer (R)

New 2008 results: 71% McCain, 28% Obama

Old 2008 results: 72% McCain, 27% Obama

Racial stats: 64% white, 26% Hispanic, 8% black

The district loses the city of Abilene and much of its northern territory to TX-13, so it expands eastward to take in parts of TX-31 and picks up Temple and Democratic areas in Bell County. The district becomes only slightly less Republican and Neugebauer and the GOP can consider it a safe hold for years to come.

South Texas

District 15 (Orange): McAllen, Harlingen, Alice; Ruben Hinojosa (D)

New 2008 results: 64% Obama-35% McCain

Old 2008 results: 60% Obama-40% McCain

Racial stats: 84% Hispanic, 15% white

While several of the northwestern counties are lost to the new TX-34 and TX-14, the district remains centered on the border cities of McAllen and Harlingen. It is one of the most Hispanic districts in the country, and Democratic performance increases as well, making victory assured for Hinojosa or any Hispanic Democrat running here.

District 27 (Greenish Turquoise): Corpus Christi, Brownsville; Solomon Ortiz (D)

New 2008 results: 54% McCain-45% Obama

Old 2008 results: 53% McCain-46% Obama

Racial stats: 70% Hispanic, 26% white

This district is virtually unchanged and remains heavily Hispanic and safe for Solomon Ortiz. It only went for Obama by 9 points in 2008 and probably voted for Bush by in 2004, although I don’t think this will become a Republican seat any time soon and I wasn’t going to try at the expense of the new Republican Hill Country district, TX-34.

District 28 (Rose Pink): Laredo, Brownsville; Henry Cuellar (D)

New 2008 results: 63% Obama-36% McCain

Old 2008 results: 56% Obama-44% McCain

Racial stats: 84% Hispanic, 14% white

After losing several eastern Republican counties to the new TX-34, Democratic performance in this district goes up by 7 points, and at 84% it is possibly the most Hispanic district in the country. I wonder if maybe this district could get a better representative than Henry Cuellar now that it is more Democratic…

District 34 (Tropical Green): Austin, Victoria, Texas Hill Country; new Republican district

New 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Old 2008 results: New district

Racial stats: 59% white, 30% Hispanic, 8% black

This is one of the most diverse districts in the entire state, containing liberal areas in Austin, conservative areas west of Houston, Victoria and the Central Texas counties known as the Texas Hill Country, and Hispanic areas in South Texas stretching nearly to the Mexican border. It is derived from seven current districts: TX-10, TX-14, TX-15, TX-21, TX-22, TX-25, and TX-28.While the district is just 59% white, it is still very Republican, and would probably elected a Republican easily enough. The demographics may change considerably by the end of the decade though.

San Antonio

District 20 (Peach): San Antonio; Charlie Gonzalez (D)

New 2008 results: 63% Obama, 35% McCain

Old 2008 results: 63% Obama, 36% McCain

Racial stats: 68% Hispanic, 23% white, 6% black

Essentially the same district centered on the city of San Antonio; remains heavily Hispanic and Democratic and becomes even more compact. Not a liability for the Democrats or for Charlie Gonzalez.

District 21 (Reddish Brown): Northern Bexar County/San Antonio, New Braunfels; Lamar Smith (R)

New 2008 results: 61% McCain-38% Obama

Old 2008 results: 58% McCain-41% Obama

Racial stats: 64% white, 24% Hispanic, 8% black

Lamar Smith’s district contracts in area, losing its portions of Travis County and Austin, as well as much of its western parts. It is now almost entirely a Bexar County district, gaining Republican areas from TX-23, which increases the GOP performance by three points, making it an easy hold for the GOP.

District 23 (Sky Blue): El Paso, San Antonio, Eagle Pass; Ciro Rodriguez (D)

New 2008 results: 57% Obama-42% McCain

Old 2008 results: 51% Obama-48% McCain

Racial stats: 68% Hispanic, 26% white

This district goes from swing to heavily Democratic, in large part because of the need for the Republican counties to the north to be taken up by TX-11 and the population growth along the border counties. I think the GOP will concede this one to Rodriguez to avoid weakening TX-21, as well as to make sure that they don’t violate the VRA and have a court redraw the districts again as was the case with the old TX-23 represented by Henry Bonilla from 2004 to 2006. This district was trending Democratic already anyway, now that process is just being accelerated.

Iowa is among the small number of states that use a bipartisan (or nonpartisan) commission to perform redistricting every 10 years. The resulting maps are often very competitive and fair when compared with those of many other states.

However, I started thinking anout what would happen if, hypothetically, the party in charge of the legislature controlled redistricting rather than the commission. What would such a map look like? How would the current incumbents be affected?

The map the I created was designed to help Democrats because currently the legislature is under Democratic control and the governor is a Democrat. In this hypothetical scenario, Republicans cannot block the plan through filibusters or avoiding a quorum. Also, since Iowa is set to lose one of its districts after the 2010 census, my plan uses four districts rather than the five that currently exist.

My main goals were to:

-Maintain Democratic advantages in eastern Iowa

-Protect Leonard Boswell

-Dismantle Tom Latham’s district and force him to run against Steve King

Here is the current map:

And here is the map that I ended up creating:

Here is some information about this new districts:

1st District (Blue)

Obama-55.21%

McCain-44.79%

Major Cities: Davenport. Dubuque, Waterloo

The new 1st district has all but two of the counties of the current 1st (Jones and Fayette). It picks up all of the counties along the Minnesota border, as well as a number of adjacent counties (basically the northern bits of Latham and King’s districts). It is still considerably Democratic, although less so than before. However, the district is still largely centered in Democratic-leaning northeastern Iowa, so it should elect Bruce Braley or another Democrat easily enough.

2nd District (Red)

Obama-58.89%

McCain-41.11%

Major Cities: Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Burlington

This district keeps all of the counties currently located in Dave Loebsack’s southeastern district, and it gains Jones County from the 1st, as well as a few Republican counties from Steve King’s 5th district (Decatur, Ringgold, and Taylor). It also picks up 6 of the 12 counties in Leonard Boswell’s 3rd district (5 of those 6 counties went for McCain, so this takes some of the pressure off of Boswell). The result is a very Democratic district in southeastern Iowa that is now able to dilute Republican influence from some of the neighboring districts. Loebsack or another Democrat would have no trouble getting reelected here.

3rd District (Purple)

Obama-60.03%

McCain-39.97%

Major Cities: Carroll, Des Moines, Fort Dodge

This district retains roughly half of the counties in Leonard Boswell’s 3rd district, but also picks up Democratic counties from the 4th and 5th districts. Over half of the population in the district lives in Polk County (Des Moines). My main goal was to protect Leonard Boswell since he seems to have frequent trouble in his current district. He would be more than safe here; this district went for Obama by over 20 points, making it the most Democratic district in Iowa. If Tom Latham wanted to run against Boswell, he would first have to move to the 3rd (his Ames home is located outside of the district), and even then he would have a difficult race given the new nature of the district. Steve King’s home in Crawford County has also been moved into this district, but it would be hopeless for him to run here, given his ultraconservative profile. This district would favor most any Democrat.

4th District (Green)

Obama-50.46%

McCain-49.54%

Major Cities: Ames, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Storm Lake

At first, I thought it would be impossible to put western Iowa into a Democratic district, but it was indeed possible. Obama only won this district by about 1%, but making it much more Democratic would have put Braley or Boswell in danger. The 4th keeps most of its current western base, but loses several western counties to the other 3 districts (including Crawford County, where Steve King lives). It gains many of the counties in Tom Latham’s current 4th district, including Dallas and Story (where Latham lives) and Fayette County (located in the current 1st dstrict). This district has much of Latham’s former territory, so he would have the best chance of winning in this district. But first he would probably have to face Steve King in a Republican primary. If the primary was divisive enough, or if King was the GOP nominee, this marginally Democratic district could be won by a moderate-to-conservative Democrat.

So while none of this will probably ever happen, I thought that it would be interesting to examine a hypothetical scenario.  So what do you all think? Comments, suggestions, ideas?

CQ politics has finally released its ratings for the 2010 Senate and gubernatorial elections. Here they are:

Incumbent in parenthesis, *=retiring

First, the Senate races:

Safe Democrat

California (Boxer)

Hawaii (Inouye)

Indiana (Bayh)

Maryland (Mikulski)

New York (Schumer)

North Dakota (Dorgan)

Oregon (Wyden)

Vermont (Leahy)

Washington (Murray)

Democrat Favored

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Colorado (Bennet)

Delaware (Kaufman*)

Leans Democrat

Nevada (Reid)

New York (Gillibrand)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

No Clear Favorite

Connecticut (Dodd)

Florida (Martinez*)

Illinois (Burris)

Kentucky (Bunning)

Missouri (Bond*)

New Hampshire (Gregg*)

North Carolina (Burr)

Ohio (Voinovich*)

Pennsylvania (Specter)

Leans Republican

Louisiana (Vitter)

South Carolina (DeMint)

Republican Favored

Arizona (McCain)

Georgia (Isakson)

Kansas (Brownback*)

South Dakota (Thune)

Safe Republican

Alabama (Shelby)

Alaska (Murkowski)

Idaho (Crapo)

Iowa (Grassley)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

Utah (Bennett)

Now the governor’s races:

Safe Democrat

Arkansas (Beebe)

Maryland (O’Malley)

New Hampshire (Lynch)

Democrat Favored

Hawaii (Lingle*)

Ohio (Strickland)

New Mexico (Richardson*)

Leans Democrat

California (Schwarzenegger*)

Colorado (Ritter)

Illinois (Quinn)

Iowa (Culver)

Maine (Baldacci*)

Massachusetts (Patrick)

New York (Paterson)

Oregon (Kulongoski*)

Wisconsin (Doyle)

No Clear Favorite

Michigan (Granholm*)

Minnesota (Pawlenty*)

Nevada (Gibbons)

New Jersey (Corzine)

Pennsylvania (Rendell*)

Rhode Island (Carcieri*)

Virginia (Kaine*)

Wyoming (Freudenthal. Apparently he is considering suing to overturn the term-limits law, so CQ is unsure about rating this race until that is resolved)

Leans Republican

Alabama (Riley*)

Arizona (Brewer)

Oklahoma (Henry*)

South Carolina (Sanford*)

Tennessee (Bredesen*)

Texas (Perry)

Vermont (Douglas)

Republican Favored

Alaska (Palin)

Connecticut (Rell)

Georgia (Perdue*)

Florida (Crist)

Idaho (Otter)

Kansas (Parkinson*)

South Dakota (Rounds*)

Safe Republican

Nebraska (Heineman)

You can see the maps here:

http://innovation.cq.com/senat… http://innovation.cqpolitics.c…

Please comment and say what you think of CQ’s first batch of race ratings!

The Hill released an article today in which all 41 Senate Republicans were asked to evaluate the most bipartisan Democrats.

Here is the link: http://thehill.com/leading-the…

It was a really nice article and it showed that despite the big battles, most people are trying to reach out to the other side somehow, even in some small way.

Every Republican, even the most conservative ones, gave kind, thoughtful answers… except for one: Jim Bunning.

His answer was simply this:

No.

So I ask you all this question: Does Jim Bunning even care anymore about trying to get reelected?  

Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C) really screwed up in some recent comments that he made. He is making himself more and more vulnerable with each passing day.

Here is what he told a group of NC business leaders earlier this week, as reported by The Hendersonville Times-News:

“On Friday night, I called my wife and I said, ‘Brooke, I am not coming home this weekend. I will call you on Monday. Tonight, I want you to go to the ATM machine, and I want you to draw out everything it will let you take. And I want you to tomorrow, and I want you to go Sunday.’ I was convinced on Friday night that if you put a plastic card in an ATM machine the last thing you were going to get was cash.” Burr added, “I think it is safe to say the economy has not rebounded. If anything, we have gone deeper into what economists call ‘recession.’ I would tell you it’s not a recession. I would define this as a depression.”

http://politicalticker.blogs.c…

Advocating runs on the banks is a really idiotic thing to do, and I am really looking forward to getting a new Senator in 2010. I really hope that Roy Cooper will run for Senate!

What do you all think of these comments and will this impact Sen. Burr’s future at all?

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) is finally making national news after four years as a do-nothing GOP wallflower. But… it’s probably not the knid of publicity that will help him come 2010.

Yesterday, the House passed a bill that would give the FDA power to regulate tobacco products by a vote of 298-112. Next, the bill will head to the Senate, where one senator has threatened to filibuster it. That senator is… Richard Burr.

I can understand Burr’s opposition to the bill. North Carolina is the number one tobacco-producing state in the country, and the congressional district Burr represented from 1995 to 2005 includes Winston-Salem, the home of the R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company.

But Burr’s opposition to this bill has been reported in virtually every news story on this bill, including these stories from the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Associated Press. This is bad politically for Burr for several reasons:

1. It will empower national Democrats to defeat him in 2010. Burr’s decision to filibuster this bill, which many Democrats and liberals support, turns him from just another Southern Republican into a specific opponent. He is making himself more vulnerable because he is giving Democrats a real reason to strongly dislike him besides the fact that he is a Republican. They will want him out because of this action.

2. It doesn’t really help him a lot back home. Although North Carolina has long been known for it’s tobacco (people used to joke that the state motto was “Tobacco is a vegetable”), the tobacco industry no longer commands the influence it once had. The NC House just approved a bill to ban smoking in most businesses and restaurants, and polling showed that roughly two-thirds of North Carolinians supported the ban. By being so vocal, Burr will alienate urban and surburban voters in RTP and Charlotte who want tobacco to be more regulated. Most tobacco farmers would probably have voted for him anyway, so he will potentially lose more votes than he will gain from this. This

3. It furthers his image as an obstructionist. The Senate GOP has fallen in love with the filibuster, and Burr has been no exception. He has very few accomplishments he can point to other than being an ultraconservative, partisan Republican who opposed the Democrats who have controlled Congress for most of his term. The one time he gets a lot of national exosure, it is for opposing rather than supporting something.

In my opinion, Burr is the most endangered Republican incumbent in 2010 other than Jim Bunning. And unlike in Kentucky, it is unlikely that the GOP leadership will try to get Burr to retire or defeat him in a primary.

So I think this race is being overlooked by many national pundits, and it will prove to be one of our best pickup opportunities next November.