Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) is finally making national news after four years as a do-nothing GOP wallflower. But… it’s probably not the knid of publicity that will help him come 2010.
Yesterday, the House passed a bill that would give the FDA power to regulate tobacco products by a vote of 298-112. Next, the bill will head to the Senate, where one senator has threatened to filibuster it. That senator is… Richard Burr.
I can understand Burr’s opposition to the bill. North Carolina is the number one tobacco-producing state in the country, and the congressional district Burr represented from 1995 to 2005 includes Winston-Salem, the home of the R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company.
But Burr’s opposition to this bill has been reported in virtually every news story on this bill, including these stories from the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Associated Press. This is bad politically for Burr for several reasons:
1. It will empower national Democrats to defeat him in 2010. Burr’s decision to filibuster this bill, which many Democrats and liberals support, turns him from just another Southern Republican into a specific opponent. He is making himself more vulnerable because he is giving Democrats a real reason to strongly dislike him besides the fact that he is a Republican. They will want him out because of this action.
2. It doesn’t really help him a lot back home. Although North Carolina has long been known for it’s tobacco (people used to joke that the state motto was “Tobacco is a vegetable”), the tobacco industry no longer commands the influence it once had. The NC House just approved a bill to ban smoking in most businesses and restaurants, and polling showed that roughly two-thirds of North Carolinians supported the ban. By being so vocal, Burr will alienate urban and surburban voters in RTP and Charlotte who want tobacco to be more regulated. Most tobacco farmers would probably have voted for him anyway, so he will potentially lose more votes than he will gain from this. This
3. It furthers his image as an obstructionist. The Senate GOP has fallen in love with the filibuster, and Burr has been no exception. He has very few accomplishments he can point to other than being an ultraconservative, partisan Republican who opposed the Democrats who have controlled Congress for most of his term. The one time he gets a lot of national exosure, it is for opposing rather than supporting something.
In my opinion, Burr is the most endangered Republican incumbent in 2010 other than Jim Bunning. And unlike in Kentucky, it is unlikely that the GOP leadership will try to get Burr to retire or defeat him in a primary.
So I think this race is being overlooked by many national pundits, and it will prove to be one of our best pickup opportunities next November.
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