CQ releases 2010 race ratings

CQ politics has finally released its ratings for the 2010 Senate and gubernatorial elections. Here they are:

Incumbent in parenthesis, *=retiring

First, the Senate races:

Safe Democrat

California (Boxer)

Hawaii (Inouye)

Indiana (Bayh)

Maryland (Mikulski)

New York (Schumer)

North Dakota (Dorgan)

Oregon (Wyden)

Vermont (Leahy)

Washington (Murray)

Democrat Favored

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Colorado (Bennet)

Delaware (Kaufman*)

Leans Democrat

Nevada (Reid)

New York (Gillibrand)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

No Clear Favorite

Connecticut (Dodd)

Florida (Martinez*)

Illinois (Burris)

Kentucky (Bunning)

Missouri (Bond*)

New Hampshire (Gregg*)

North Carolina (Burr)

Ohio (Voinovich*)

Pennsylvania (Specter)

Leans Republican

Louisiana (Vitter)

South Carolina (DeMint)

Republican Favored

Arizona (McCain)

Georgia (Isakson)

Kansas (Brownback*)

South Dakota (Thune)

Safe Republican

Alabama (Shelby)

Alaska (Murkowski)

Idaho (Crapo)

Iowa (Grassley)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

Utah (Bennett)

Now the governor’s races:

Safe Democrat

Arkansas (Beebe)

Maryland (O’Malley)

New Hampshire (Lynch)

Democrat Favored

Hawaii (Lingle*)

Ohio (Strickland)

New Mexico (Richardson*)

Leans Democrat

California (Schwarzenegger*)

Colorado (Ritter)

Illinois (Quinn)

Iowa (Culver)

Maine (Baldacci*)

Massachusetts (Patrick)

New York (Paterson)

Oregon (Kulongoski*)

Wisconsin (Doyle)

No Clear Favorite

Michigan (Granholm*)

Minnesota (Pawlenty*)

Nevada (Gibbons)

New Jersey (Corzine)

Pennsylvania (Rendell*)

Rhode Island (Carcieri*)

Virginia (Kaine*)

Wyoming (Freudenthal. Apparently he is considering suing to overturn the term-limits law, so CQ is unsure about rating this race until that is resolved)

Leans Republican

Alabama (Riley*)

Arizona (Brewer)

Oklahoma (Henry*)

South Carolina (Sanford*)

Tennessee (Bredesen*)

Texas (Perry)

Vermont (Douglas)

Republican Favored

Alaska (Palin)

Connecticut (Rell)

Georgia (Perdue*)

Florida (Crist)

Idaho (Otter)

Kansas (Parkinson*)

South Dakota (Rounds*)

Safe Republican

Nebraska (Heineman)

You can see the maps here:

http://innovation.cq.com/senat… http://innovation.cqpolitics.c…

Please comment and say what you think of CQ’s first batch of race ratings!

28 thoughts on “CQ releases 2010 race ratings”

  1. Senate: I’d call NY-B and WI likely D, if not Safe D.  I’d call IL leans D.  I’d call GA, SC, and SD safe R.

    Governor: I’d call PA leans D, OK tossup, GA leans R, AK and ID safe R, MA likely D.

    Did they release house ratings yet?

  2. Doyle seems intent on running for a 3rd term and his approvals are pathetic.  Wisconsin isn’t overwhelmingly Democratic and with approvals in the low 30’s we could definately lose this one with Doyle.

    http://www.surveyusa.com/clien

    Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jim Doyle is doing as Governor?

    3/27/09

    Approve 32%

    Disapprove 63%

  3. Lots of disagreements in the Senate races; not as familiar with the gubernatorial races.  Most are in listing races as more competitive than they really are.

    For Democrats, NV, NY, WI, and IL all should be Dem Favored.  These are blue-bluish states and there’s no good R even in the race yet.  IL in particular is mislabeled as I don’t see anyway Burris wins a primary should he decide to run for re-election.  CT should probabaly be Leans Dem, but I can understand that one.

    For Republicans, I might make FL Lean Rep.  LA should probably be Rep Favored, and SC and SD should be Safe Republican.  SC in particular seems like a crazy rating–what I am missing on this one?  I might move OK and IA to Rep Favored on the idea that Coburn or Grassley could retire and if they did it would be a competitive race, but I understand why CQ has them where they are.

  4. I mean conservative in the sense that they are slow to make judgments about the relative safety of incumbents, and consider most races to be more competitive than other people do.  Thus the large number of races in the favored categories, despite all those incumbents being virtually safe.

    As time goes on, they will shift more and more races towards one side as the situation becomes more clear.

    On the whole, the Senate picture is about what I’d expect it to be, but I think we are on much better ground in the governor races than CQ believes.  Georgia for one is probably leaning our way at the moment, given the candidates running.

  5. do they think is going to take out Jim DeMint in SC?  I’d pay good money to see that one happen, but it’s impossible.  He might as well be Richard Shelby.

    Also, I strongly disagree with their rating of AZ-Gov as Lean GOP.  At the very least it’s a tossup; more likely, Goddard is favored over all Republican comers.

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