Thanks to everyone who already voted in that little Condorcet poll I put up on Sunday about which senate races are likely to flip in 2010.
I said I’ll leave the poll open, so I will, in case anyone still wants to vote:
http://www.cs.cornell.edu/w8/~…
… but here are the results with 42 votes. [Edited from original version]
The results were actually pretty decisive – in the top 10, most of the races “beat” the next one on the list pretty decisively. Kentucky and Ohio are now close at #4 & #5, but that’s about it. There’s a near-tie at #10 and #11 (Illinois, Louisiana) with Nevada also close at #12. But other than that, the top of the list looks very stable. Here’s what you all said:
1. New Hampshire (OPEN-R)
2. Pennsylvania (Specter-R)
3. Missouri (OPEN-R)
4. Ohio (OPEN-R)
5. Kentucky (Bunning-R)
6. North Carolina (Burr-R)
7. Connecticut (Dodd-D)
8. Florida (OPEN-R)
9. Colorado (Bennet-D)
10. Illinois (Burris-D)
11. Louisiana (Vitter-R)
12. Nevada (Reid-D)
13. Arkansas (Lincoln-D)
14. Delaware (OPEN-D)
15. New York-B (Gillibrand-D)
16. Iowa (Grassley-R)
17. Arizona (McCain-R)
18. Georgia (Isakson-R)
19. Kansas (OPEN-R)
20. Wisconsin (Feingold-D)
21. Oklahoma (Coburn-R)
22. California (Boxer-D)
23. Tied: Alaska (Murkowski-R) & North Dakota (Dorgan-D)
25. Washington (Murray-D)
26. South Dakota (Thune-R)
27. South Carolina (DeMint-R)
28. Hawaii (Inouye-D)
29. Indiana (Bayh-D)
30. Maryland (Mikulski-D)
31. Oregon (Wyden-D)
32. Alabama (Shelby-R)
33. Vermont (Leahy-D)
34. Utah (Bennett-R)
35. New York (Schumer-D)
36. Idaho (Crapo-R)
I found this very interesting; much better than just seeing everyone’s rankings. I hope you will continue to do this for future senate ranking threads. It would be very interesting to see how the consensus opinion changes over time.
pretty similar to what you have up there.