Tag: senate flip 2010 Sen race Condorcet poll

Thanks to everyone who already voted in that little Condorcet poll I put up on Sunday about which senate races are likely to flip in 2010.  

I said I’ll leave the poll open, so I will, in case anyone still wants to vote:

http://www.cs.cornell.edu/w8/~…

… but here are the results with 42 votes. [Edited from original version]

The results were actually pretty decisive – in the top 10, most of the races “beat” the next one on the list pretty decisively.  Kentucky and Ohio are now close at #4 & #5, but that’s about it.  There’s a near-tie at #10 and #11 (Illinois, Louisiana) with Nevada also close at #12.  But other than that, the top of the list looks very stable.  Here’s what you all said:

1. New Hampshire (OPEN-R)

2. Pennsylvania (Specter-R)

3. Missouri (OPEN-R)

4. Ohio (OPEN-R)

5. Kentucky (Bunning-R)

6. North Carolina (Burr-R)

7. Connecticut (Dodd-D)

8. Florida (OPEN-R)

9. Colorado (Bennet-D)

10. Illinois (Burris-D)

11. Louisiana (Vitter-R)

12. Nevada (Reid-D)

13. Arkansas (Lincoln-D)

14. Delaware (OPEN-D)

15. New York-B (Gillibrand-D)

16. Iowa (Grassley-R)

17. Arizona (McCain-R)

18. Georgia (Isakson-R)

19. Kansas (OPEN-R)

20. Wisconsin (Feingold-D)

21. Oklahoma (Coburn-R)

22. California (Boxer-D)

23. Tied: Alaska (Murkowski-R) & North Dakota (Dorgan-D)

25. Washington (Murray-D)

26. South Dakota (Thune-R)

27. South Carolina (DeMint-R)

28. Hawaii (Inouye-D)

29. Indiana (Bayh-D)

30. Maryland (Mikulski-D)

31. Oregon (Wyden-D)

32. Alabama (Shelby-R)

33. Vermont (Leahy-D)

34. Utah (Bennett-R)

35. New York (Schumer-D)

36. Idaho (Crapo-R)

After reading the “cattle call,” which is sort of interminable and starts to make my eyes glaze over, I thought, why not have a poll that would aggregate our guesses together and determine which races we (collectively) think are most likely to flip?

Here is such a poll:

http://www.cs.cornell.edu/w8/~…

Go vote if you’re interested!  I’ll leave it open for a couple of weeks.

If this gets popular, then maybe some of the organizers of this site should look into doing it as a regular thing.

FYI for voting rule nerds: this poll uses Condorcet rules, which tend to be good for rank-orderings like this.  In effect, the poll asks whether more people rate X more highly than Y, or Y more highly than X.  It’s slightly more complicated than that, but not much.

If you ever want to use this service to create polls like this, here’s the URL:

http://www.cs.cornell.edu/andr…

It’s pretty quick & easy.  And the results are far more detailed & useful than the kind of simple add-up-the-numbers-and-who-wins type of polling tools that you usually see (one of which I think is built in on this site…)

UPDATE: Hey, I see a few people have already taken the poll.  Thanks!  This should be interesting…