Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas
Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut
Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii
Previous diary on Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa
Previous diary on Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Maryland
The rest below the fold…
Massachusetts
Districts: 9 (down from 10 in 2002)
Who’s in charge? Democrats
Is that important? Not from a partisan perspective, no
For a state with an all-Democratic delegation being remapped by Democratic lawmakers, there’s been a surprising amount of drama in the Bay State over whose district will be cut. It was hoped that an older member would announce his retirement, allowing a clean elimination without any messy incumbent vs. incumbent primaries. But Financial Services Committee ranking member Barney Frank, long speculated to be the next retiree, announced he will run again, and so far no member of the congressional delegation appears ready to challenge Sen. Scott Brown, though Mike Capuano’s name is still in the running. Should he go for it, his Boston seat will simply be split up between Frank and Stephen Lynch. In any case, all nine districts should remain strongly Democratic-leaning.
Michigan
Districts: 14 (down from 15 in 2002)
Who’s in charge? Republicans
Is that important? Yes
As was the case ten years ago, Republicans will draw the lines in Michigan, but unlike then, they really have no room to make gains, only to eliminate one more Democratic incumbent. In most estimations, that incumbent will be two-termer Gary Peters, the only Democrat (other than Hansen Clarke, whose district is VRA-protected) in the state’s delegation elected after 1982. A likely scenario is that his Oakland County swing district will be combined with Sander Levin’s heavily Democratic Macomb County territory in a safe blue seat. Levin’s liberal record and thirty years of seniority should make him a prohibitive favorite over Peters in the Democratic primary, but I suppose at 81 he will be prime congressional retirement age. Other than that, the GOP cannot afford to get too cute with boundaries — they already hold several marginal seats (the 1st, 7th, and 11th come to mind).
Minnesota
Districts: 8
Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor, GOP Legislature)
Is that important? Surely
Democrats are counting their lucky stars that Mark Dayton won the gubernatorial race, as the GOP has long aimed to combine Minneapolis and St. Paul into one heavily Democratic seat and now will presumably not have that opportunity. Ten years ago, a three-way deadlock between Independent Gov. Jesse Ventura, a Democratic Senate, and a Republican House forced the courts to step in, but many hope for compromise this time around. Since the state’s high Census participation rate saved it from losing a seat, status quo will probably win the day, with safer seats for Tim Walz, Chip Cravaack, and perhaps Collin Peterson. Ironically, Minnesota just held on to its eighth seat at the expense of fast-growing but lower-participating North Carolina, which was the controversial winner over Utah for the last seat allocated in the 2000 Census.
about Tarryl Clark. She raised millions in her 2010 6th district congressional campaign and her Stearns county home is on the edge of two other congressional seats (the 7th & 8th). Several leading democrats have declined to committ to a two year race against Freshman congressman Craavack in the 8th district. Clark could move over to that race is Eastern Stearns county ended up in that seat.
Nothing will be easy in MN with split party control so nothing is too certain. There would have to be a swap of counties between the 8th , 7th & 6th districts to accomdate a Clark run. That’s by no means a done deal but rumours are flying.
I think unless a deal for Clark’s Stearn’s county area is made we will see a status quo map but even that is not as easy saying it. CD7 needs to gain a good bit of population and unless it comes from CD8 it will be republican.
If by ‘status quo’ you mean a court-drawn map, which is what happens in Minnesota whenever there’s split control, then you’re surely right: Several lawsuits are already working their way through both federal and state courts.
If, on the other hand, by ‘status quo’ you mean that Democrats & Republicans will come together, sing kumbaya, and draw a map to protect the current delegation, then I don’t think that has much connection to Minnesota reality.
The biggest question mark with Minnesota will be who wins the race to get a favorable court venue.
Since 2008. He seems like he actually cares about doing his job in DC, and IMHO it would be sad to see him go just b/c The Detroit Machine prefers to protect other incumbents. I do hope he finds a way to hang in there.