Tag: TN-06

House:

• CA-26: More eliminationist rhetoric from the right (not that they’ll ever cease): Anthony Portantino, the Democratic Assemblyman running against Rep. David Dreier, is featured on some second amendment-related Old West-style “WANTED” poster.

• LA-02: Daily Kingfish says that Public Service Commissioner Lambert Boissiere III (son of a former state senator of the same name) is rumored to be interested in a primary challenge to Rep. Cedric Richmond in the newly-redrawn 2nd CD. The post points out that Bossiere’s PSC district has a lot of overlap with the new borders of the 2nd, including a dog-leg up to the Baton Rouge area. (Bossiere, like Richmond, is also African-American.)

• NH-02: It’s nothing like the town hall craziness of 2009, but it’s nice to see idiots like Charlie Bass take heat in public forums for voting for Paul Ryan’s Medicare-killing budget. Pretty pathetic political instincts on the Bassmaster’s part. This vote will haunt him – and it’s already haunting several other colleagues, like Bob Dold!, Lou Barletta, and Paul Ryan himself.

• NM-01: Oh no. I really had hoped we were done with Marty Chavez, but the maddening former Albuquerque mayor is apparently considering a run to replace Martin Heinrich, and is even supposedly meeting with the DCCC. The good news, though, is that ex-LG (and 2010 gubernatorial nominee) Diane Denish is also thinking about entering the race. This could be a very crowded primary.

• NV-02: You know Jon Ralston is enjoying this one. After a report came out in the Las Vegas Review-Journal (which Ralston not-so-affectionately refers to as a “newspaper,” in scare quotes every time) that state GOP chair Mark Amodei was planning to seek the 2nd CD seat being vacated by Dean Heller, Ralston spoke with Amodei who says he didn’t announce anything. In the LVRJ piece (which oddly quotes Amodei himself, so I don’t know how they got the story wrong), Amodei also said that Republican state Sen. Greg Brower told him he also planned to join the race (and Ralston confirms via Twitter.)

Of course, who knows what’s going to happen with this seat, given the unsettled legal questions about how a special election should be conducted if Gov. Brian Sandoval taps Heller for John Ensign’s soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat.

• TN-06: I wonder what’s up with Diane Black. The GOP frosh gave her own campaign two-thirds of a million bucks in Q1 – not a loan, an outright donation. I’m guessing that she’s trying to ward off a potential primary challenge, given that she won the open-seat Republican primary last year with just 31% of the vote (her two nearest competitors both got 30%, so there must have been much gnashing of teeth).

Other Races:

• NJ-St. Sen.: An administrative law judge ruled that Olympian Carl Lewis, who is running as a Democrat, does indeed meet state residency requirements. However, it sounds like Republicans plan to appeal this ruling.

• WI Recall: All sorts of recall news. First up, Dem state Rep. Fred Clark says he’ll challenge Luther Olsen in the expected recall election, another strong get for Team Blue. Democrats also filed a huge 30,000 signatures against their fifth recall target, Alberta Darling. That leaves just three eligible Republicans left: Rob Cowles, Glenn Grothman, and Mary Lazich, the latter two of whom are in very red districts (so I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t get hit with a recall).

Republicans also finally filed signatures against three Democrats: Dave Hansen, Jim Holperin, and Robert Wirch. Democrats, though, charged that the GOP’s petition-gathering efforts were sloppy and flawed, and vowed to challenge the signatures.

Redistricting Roundup:

• California: California’s new independent redistricting commission is set to release a draft set of maps by June 10th, with final maps due on August 15th (after a period of public comment).

• Colorado: Things don’t seem to be going so swimmingly in Colorado’s attempt to go back to the redistricting drawing board, with a special committee begging for more time to finish a new set of maps. The Republican co-chair says he thinks they can produce new plans in 10 days, but as Al Swearengen says, announcing your plans is a good way to hear god laugh.

Meanwhile, Gov. John Hickenlooper sounds like he has no intention of vetoing any map that the legislature sends him. Since Dems control one body and Republicans the other, this means they’ll have to produce a compromise map – or no map at all, and kick it to the courts. I think Hick’s hands-off approach (which is totally in-character for him) increases the likelihood of the latter, because it eliminates a key piece of Dem leverage which could be used to force an agreement.

• Missouri: Utterly embarrassing: Barely more than a day after finally agreeing to a conference committee to resolve differences between Republicans in the state House and Senate, work has ground to a halt, and nothing more will happen until Tuesday. One state Rep. offered this hilariously nonsensical assessment: “I think we’re close, but obviously we’re far.” Meanwhile, the House passed a new map this morning that supposedly tries to address some Senate concerns, but given that there is no actual agreement, I’m guessing this is just a negotiating tactic.

• New Jersey: Teabaggers are suing to block implementation of NJ’s new legislative map. It’s not quite clear what the grounds are, but WNYC summarizes: “The suit alleges that the commission over-packed the southern half of the state and ‘illegally split Newark and Jersey City from three districts each to two.'”

• Louisiana: The state House submitted its own map to the DoJ for pre-clearance, which I believe makes it the first such plan to go before Justice this cycle. The hotly-contested congressional map, though, has yet to be sent in.

• Victims: Dave Wasserman and Julia Edwards try their hand at the most likely redistricting victims this cycle, with separate lists for the 10 most endangered Democrats and Republicans.

Senate:

• AZ-Sen: Jeff Flake then:

That’s the difficulty of a campaign. I mean, it’s easy to just say, “Seal the border and enforce the law.” What does that really mean? What does that entail? And when you’re able to explain it, then they’re alright. And I think for those who don’t agree with my position-think that it ought to be something different-at least I think they give me a little credit for sticking with my position because I’ve always believed this is what we need and I continue to believe regardless of the political environment.

Jeff Flake now:

In the past I have supported a broad approach to immigration reform – increased border security coupled with a temporary worker program. I no longer do. I’ve been down that road, and it is a dead end. The political realities in Washington are such that a comprehensive solution is not possible, or even desirable, given the current leadership.

In other AZ news, the subscription-only Arizona Guardian says that ex-Rep. Matt Salmon may endorse Rep. Trent Franks, rather than his old buddy Flake (who succeeded him in Congress when he unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2002), something they characterize as a “snub” on their home page. Franks of course hasn’t announced a run yet, but Dave Catanese claims he’ll do so this Saturday. Just hope whoever told Dave this is more truthful than the dipshit who dissembled about Connie Mack last week. (And I still maintain that Dave had every right-if not an obligation-to burn that source.)

• FL-Sen: Adam Hasner has to be feeling pretty good about himself these days. Rep. Connie Mack inartfully bowed out of the race, and Mike Haridopolos has already scored a few own-goals. So the former state House Majority Leader took to his Facebook to declare that “this election still needs a proven limited government leader, who is solid across the board on the conservative principles.” Why golly, that sounds just like Hasner, doesn’t it?

• IN-Sen, IN-02: Rep. Joe Donnelly sure sounds like he’s interested in running for Senate. He told Robert Annis, a reporter for the Indianapolis Star, that he thinks his “experience is best served in the Senate.” Annis also characterized Donnelly as “leaning toward” a run. A different reporter at the same event characterized him as “leaning strongly toward” a Senate bid if the GOP makes his current district redder.

• MI-Sen: PPP has the remainders from their Michigan poll last week, a kitchen sink GOP primary:

Pete Hoekstra is the clear first choice of Republicans in the state for who they’d like as their nominee to take on Debbie Stabenow next year. 38% say he’d be their pick compared to 18% for Terri Lynn Land. No one else cracks double digits, with Saul Anuzis at 5%, Justin Amash, Randy Hekman, and Tim Walberg at 4%, Chad Dewey at 3%, and Tim Leuliette with the big egg at 0%.

Speaking of The Hook, he said he’ll decide whether to challenge Stabenow in two weeks. In an amusing side note, Hoekstra admitted he got all butthurt when MI GOP chair Bobby Schostak said in a recent interview that he expects a candidate to emerge who is ” head and shoulders” above the current crop of potentials-a group which obviously includes Hoekstra. Of course, Schostak also said of this mystery candidates: “I don’t know who it is. They haven’t met with me yet, if they’re out there.” We don’t know who they are either!

• NV-Sen: Rep. Dean Heller, presumably trying to scare off would-be primary opponents, raised a pretty massive $125K in a single event in Vegas on Monday night.

• OH-Sen, OH-12: This is… getting strange. Top-tier Ohio Republicans have all pretty much taken a pass on challenging Sherrod Brown, or at least seem to be leaning against a run. But one guy all of a sudden put his name into the hopper: Rep. Pat Tiberi, who sits in the very swingish 12th CD. Tiberi’s spokesman made sure to remind Dave Catanese that he’s on Ways & Means, though, so that’s a pretty tasty perch to give up. Catanese also notes that state Sen. Kevin Coughlin is preparing a run.

• RI-Sen: I guess rich guy Barry Hinckley is running against Sheldon Whitehouse? The founder of a software company called Bullhorn (“the global leader in On Demand, integrated front office software for the staffing and recruiting industry”), Hinckley is apparently trying to burnish his Republican credentials by holding some fundraisers at California yacht clubs. (Not joking about that.)

Gubernatorial:

• LA-Gov: 2010 Lt. Gov. nominee Caroline Fayard is starting to sound very much like a gubernatorial candidate… that is, if you can hear her over her foot-stuffed-in-mouth. She didn’t do much to help her cause by declaring at a recent even that she “hates Republicans” because they are “cruel” and “eat their young.” (Uh, I talk a lot of shit about the GOP, but what does “eat their young” even mean?) Fayard later tried to wiggle her way out of this by claiming “I’m against the president, but I don’t need to see his birth certificate.” So she’s managed to kill her crossover vote and her support among African Americans in one fell swoop. Well, uh, she sure is getting some free media out of this. (Hat tip: Daily Kingfish)

House:

• CT-05: I guess I thought that former state Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D) had already announced she was running for Chris Murphy’s seat, but apparently she’s only just formed an exploratory committee.

• MN-06: It’s not particularly meaningful, since the funds can be transferred to another federal account, but Michele Bachmann did just file to run for re-election yesterday.

• NY-25, VA-02: Dan Maffei apparently says he’ll decide on a rematch “in the next two months,” while Glenn Nye (I’d forgotten he was still considering) will wait until “sometime in the summer.” (That’s how The Hill phrased it in both cases.)

• RI-01: With the city of Providence’s finances imploding, freshman Rep. David Cicilline is taking a beating over his stewardship of the city he used to be mayor of. Among other things, a new Brown University poll finds him with a statewide approval rating of just 17-49. Could Cicilline be vulnerable in the general election? I doubt it, but he could underperform annoyingly and require help that could best be expended elsewhere, like a Paul Kanjorski. I think he might be more at risk in a primary.

Other Races:

• Wisconsin Recall: In just the last two months, the Wisconsin Democratic Party reports raising $1.4 million-or, a quarter million more than it did in all of 2010. In other news, a coordinator of the petition drive against Randy Hopper seems to have gone off-message with his intimation that volunteers would have “closer to 30,000 than 15,000” signatures by Tuesday (a month before the deadline). 15,269 sigs are needed for the recall to happen, but a spokesperson for the Democratic Party told the Journal Sentinel that these figures (such as they are) “are not accurate” and wouldn’t say more. Quite understandably, t’s pretty much been the policy of the party not to talk about where things stand.

• Wisconsin Sup. Ct.: JoAnne Kloppenburg is out with TV and radio ads that tout her independence.

Remainders:

• WATN?: Artur Davis, douchebag from beyond the grave. This is actually the same link as the NY-25/VA-02 item above; Davis did an event with Maffei and Nye at which he said that President Obama would bear the brunt of the blame for any government shutdown. Davis’s claim: “I think that voters always focus on the executive as the responsible officer.” That’s why Bill Clinton lost so badly in 1996, right?

In other WATN? news, I’m guessing that ex-Rep. Bart Gordon (D) is probably ruling out a run for the seat he voluntarily gave up last year (TN-06), or a Senate bid – he just took a job at the law firm of K&L Gates. (The “Gates” is Bill Gates, Sr., the Microsoft founder’s dad, who is now retired.)

Redistricting Roundup:

• Indiana: Have an idea for an Indiana state Senate map? Sen. Tim Lane (D) wants to hear from you! (Seriously!) Contact information is at the link.

• Louisiana: Even though he had said he’d stay out of it, Gov. Bobby Jindal’s been weighing in on the redistricting process-and Dems, as you might guess, aren’t happy about it. Click through the article to learn more about the exact nature of the dispute. Ultimately, though, it sounds as though Jindal will get his way, which more or less preserves the status quo.

• Funnymanders: What happens when a very careful redistricting job blows up in your face because the state Senate Majority Leader’s son being groomed for the new seat tells the media he can’t even remember being arrested for getting into a dispute over chicken fingers at Applebee’s? Well, I’m calling that a funnymander. Nathan Gonzales has the details on that story, and a few other anecdotes as well, about redistricting gone awry.

• Dark Money: On the darker side of redistricting is all the unregulated cash flooding into various coffers, which Politico takes a look at. A big reason is an FEC decision last year which allowed members of Congress to raise unlimited soft money for redistricting groups, and both Dems and Republicans are, of course, going at it full bore.

AK-Sen: The Tea Party Express just threw down another $90K on behalf of Joe Miller (mostly on ad buys), bringing their total spent on the race to $367K. Still, as Lisa Murkowski’s fundraising reports show, they still have a pretty sizable gap to make up.

CT-Sen: Dick Blumenthal is taking the obvious tack of running against Washington, attacking both TARP (of course) and also the stimulus… but note that his critique of the stimulus is decidedly from the left. Said Blumenthal: “I believe that the stimulus was wrongly structured, because it failed to provide jobs and paychecks to ordinary Americans. It unfortunately was inadequately designed to invest in infrastructure, in roads and bridges and schools.”

LA-Sen: Chet Traylor, challenging David Vitter in the GOP primary, is apparently putting all of his meager campaign cash (some $50K) into a radio ad directly slamming the incumbent for his, uh, record when it comes to women. Traylor’s ad ain’t shy.

NH-Sen, NH-01: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is coming to New Hampshire on September 27th to do an event for Rep. Paul Hodes’s senate campaign and Rep. Carol Shea-Porter’s re-election campaign.

NV-Sen: Another day, another batshit Sharron Angle quote:

People have always said – those words, ‘too conservative,’ is fairly relative. I’m sure that they probably said that about Thomas Jefferson and George Washington and Benjamin Franklin. And truly, when you look at the Constitution and our founding fathers and their writings, the things that made this country great, you might draw those conclusions: That they were conservative. They were fiscally conservative and socially conservative.

Wait, we’ve got some more. Back in 1993, Angle (then a member of the Independent American Party) sent a letter to Harry Reid regarding the Clinton budget. Have a look-see:

I and the majority of my fellow Nevadans are sickened by the passage of the recent huge tax increase bill. With YOUR help the quality of life in America has taken another step into the pit of economic collapse. Clinton’s mother-of-all tax packages is the world’s biggest tax increase ever. It increases government spending by $300 billion, increases the national debt by $1 trillion, it is retroactive to January 1, and probably the most offensive, it schedules 80 percent of the promised spending cuts to take place after the next Presidential election. What a joke, and not a very funny one at that! …

The answer to this mess is clear. STOP FUNDING THE WASTEFUL SOCIAL AND ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS. MAKE THE DIFFICULT CHOICES THAT WILL KEEP OUR COUNTRY STRONG. THAT’S WHAT YOU WERE ELECTED TO DO!

With her mastery of ALL CAPS, Angle’d make a great comment forum troll.

WI-Sen: Wealthy teabagger and presumptive GOP senate nominee Ron Johnson is sounding a bit like Chauncey Gardner, wouldn’t you say? In denying the anthropogenic nature of global warming, Johnson says: “It’s far more likely that it’s just sunspot activity or just something in the geologic eons of time.” There will be growth in the spring!

CO-Gov: Really excellent and funny first ad from Dem John Hickenlooper – just go check it out. NWOTSOTB, unfortunately. Meanwhile, on the other side(s) of the aisle, CO GOP chair Dick Wadhams put out a statement claiming that Tom Tancredo told him he’d drop out of the gube race if Dan Maes did as well (presumably allowing for them to combine into a better candidate, Voltron-style). Maes told Tancredo to go dangle.

OH-Gov: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is visiting a Chrysler plant in Toledo on Monday, and afterwards he’s going to help raise some bucks for Ted Strickland.

AZ-08: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords has a new ad up attacking those who have called for a boycott of Arizona on account of SB 1070. You can see the ad here. Neighboring Rep. Raul Grijalva is taking the ad personally, since he was among those calling for “economic sanctions” against his own state. NWOTSOTB, though Grijalva claims the buy “potentially total[s] $350,000.” (No idea where he got that figure from.)

Meanwhile, in the GOP primary, presumed front-runner Jonathan Paton is airing an ad attacking rival Jesse Kelly for alleged stimulus hypocrisy.

FL-25: Wow. GOP candidate David Rivera is one crazy motherf*cker. Back in 2002, while seeking election to the state House of Representatives for the first time, he ran a truck off the road because it was carrying flyers printed for his opponent, in the hopes of preventing it from reaching the post office on time. Man.

GA-12: Regina Thomas, who took 42% in her primary challenge to Rep. John Barrow earlier this year, says she wants to run as a write-in this fall. However, it seems like state law would prohibit this, though she’s claiming the relevant statute wouldn’t apply to her.

IN-09: You can’t deny that the GOP has done a good job in general with recruitment this cycle. They have a systemic problem, though, which is that their party is fundamentally insane, and so their candidates believe – and say – a lot of fundamentally insane things. Case in point: Republican Todd Young caught on camera deriding Social Security as a “Ponzi scheme.” Baron Hill uses Young’s words no fewer that four times in a new attack ad that, of course, questions Young’s commitment to protecting the program. NWOTSOTB.

LA-03: It’s not really a surprise that the mouthbreathers running in the Republican primary in Louisiana’s 3rd CD are trying to out-crazy each other. (“Repeal the 17th amendment!” “Repeal the 14th amendment!”) What is a little interesting is that former state House Speaker Hunt Downer skipped the teabagger-sponsored debate where rivals Jeff Landry and Kristian Magar dueled each other to see who could shred the Constitution the fastest. Both Landry and Downer have raised real money (Magar hasn’t) and are probably the main candidates.

MA-10: In a cycle where you have a guy like Rick Scott seeking office, it’s pretty damn hard to be a contender for Douchebag GOP Candidate of the Year – but Jeffrey Perry is not giving up. Perry is best known for his failings as a police sergeant (he allowed an officer under his supervision to strip-search teenage girls – twice), so it’s not a surprise to hear that he abused his powers in yet another way. In sworn deposition testimony, a supervisor said that Perry played “the old red light game,” in which Perry purposely tripped a red light to catch drivers going through it, “creating motor vehicle violations.” Bonus bit of petard-hoisting: The testimony was given in lawsuits brought against Perry by the very girls his subordinate mistreated.

NH-02: Dem Annie Kuster is out with her second ad of the campaign, a jobs-related spot. NWOTSOTB, but it’s airing “on WMUR-Channel 9 and cable stations across New Hampshire.” (WMUR is the one NH-based broadcast channel which covers the whole state.) Primary rival Katrina Swett also has a new ad of her own… and seriously, people, what is with the references to bodily functions in political advertising? First there was Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s pooping kid, now we have an entire ad devoted to bad puns based on Swett’s last name? Ick.

NY-20: Another upstate Republican challenger speaks out in defense of the Cordoba House… only to quickly backtrack. Much like Richard Hanna, GOPer Chris Gibson put out a statement on Facebook, saying that “churches, synagogues and mosques should be treated the same.” After a CNN piece pointed out Gibson’s comment, his campaign deleted the post, and then put out a statement saying he opposes the cultural center. God, this whole non-controversy is really sickening to me, and the political spinelessness it’s led to is just revolting.

NY-24: Rep. Mike Arcuri just filed 7,300 signatures for his new “NY Moderates” ballot line (he needed 3,500). As we noted when we first mentioned this story, Arcuri doesn’t have a second ballot line to run on (he was denied the endorsement of both the Working Families Party and the Independence Party), so this is his attempt to make up ground.

OH-16: So of course GOPer Jim Renacci has come out against the Cordoba House (which wags have amusingly dubbed the “Burlington Coat Factory Mosque”). Frosh Rep. John Boccieri had a great response:

[If Renacci] wants to run for the zoning commission in New York City, I’ll be more than happy to pay his filing fee.

AND I WILL FUCKING RUN AGAINST HIM! If only it were actually an elected position. (Eh, it’s probably a good thing that it isn’t.)

SC-02: It’s Miller Time – finally. Dem Rob Miller, who has a huge pile of cash on hand, is going up with his first ad of the election campaign. The spot (which you can view here) features Miller’s fellow Marines describing their commander’s leadership during the battle for control of Fallujah. NWOTSOTB. Rep. Joe Wilson also has an ad up, apparently only on cable.

TN-06: Lou Ann Zelenik, who trailed Diane Black by just a tiny margin in the GOP primary on election night, has more or less conceded. Interestingly, Black’s husband had filed a lawsuit against Zelenik over a TV ad late in the campaign, and Zelenik’s statement basically asks Black to drop the case. Though Zelenik says she “congratulates” Black on her victory, I wonder if she’s holding out a formal endorsement in exchange for a dismissal.

VA-05: Earlier in the digest, I was bemoaning the lack of political courage we’ve mostly seen in the Cordoba House “debate.” Well, I’m not sure if there’s a more courageous dude in the House these days than Tom Perriello, who, among other things, unflinchingly keeps attending town halls, no matter how hostile the attendees are. Facing yet another tough crowd, here’s how he rose to the occasion:

“Let me start by saying, I cannot imagine wanting the government to be able to tell me and my faith community where we can build a house of worship on private property,” Perriello said. “… I have opinions on whether it’s a good idea or not, but … compared to the importance of solving the economy right now… this is a distraction of what our biggest priorities should be.”

The crowd overwhelmingly applauded his answer.

A lot of Democrats could learn a lot from this man.

AZ-Sen: The AP ran a story about J.D. Hayworth’s recent criticisms of John McCain, featuring a provocative headline: “Hayworth suggests McCain would be worse than Obama.” This caused Hayworth to flip the fuck out – and put him in the exquisitely agonizing situation of having to defend McCain. Talk about having your nuts squeezed!

CO-Sen: Some off-message messaging from Ken Buck, fresh off his primary win over Jane Norton: “I think Republicans realize that Republicans are every bit as much to blame for the mess that we are in in D.C. as the Democrats.”

IN-Sen: Dick Lugar, 78 years young, indicated that he would likely seek re-election in 2012. In case you want to parse the tea leaves, his exact words were: “I suppose there will be a place and a time to do that, to rally the forces, to get the fundraisers going and all of that type of thing. But that’s my intent day by day. Most people in the Senate know I will be around, therefore they have to deal with me on that basis.”

KY-Sen: Do you ever feel like sometimes, life sounds just like an episode of Arrested Development?

Rand Paul Not a Kidnapper “In a Legal Sense,” Accuser Says

It was really just some light… abduction.

CO-Gov: Tom Tancredo is going nowhere! As in, he ain’t quitting the race. If anything, he looks more set on staying in than ever, digging in his heels in response to GOP chair Dick Wadhams’ broadsides. Said Wadhams: “Tom Tancredo makes it unwinnable if he remains a third-party candidate.” Responded the Tanc: “I have a better chance of winning in a three-way race than Maes has in a two-way race.”

FL-Gov: The Florida Independent, a member of the American Independent News Network, has a new investigative report about Rick Scott’s current healthcare company. Rather than try to summarize, I’ll just quote a bit:

Two doctors – both former employees of Solantic, the chain of clinics launched by Scott and in which he is a majority investor – allege that Solantic repeatedly used their name and medical license information without their permission or knowledge. Both doctors state that by allegedly misappropriating their information, the company was able to keep clinics operating in contravention of state law.

One of the doctors asserts that he also came upon evidence of billing irregularities involving Medicare, which, if true, would be the second time a Scott-run company was accused of improperly billing Medicare.

ID-01: Walt Minnick keeps racking up support from the right (and sometimes far-right): the conservative “Council for Citizens Against Government Waste” just named Minnick as the lone Democratic “Taxpayer Hero” of 2009. Whatever it takes, huh?

NY-10: Kevin Powell, who lost badly to Rep. Ed Towns in a 2008 primary challenge and is trying again this year, put out a press release saying he beat back Towns’ attempt to disqualify his petitions and remove him from the ballot. Towns is a terrible elected official and is definitely vulnerable – he won a primary in 1998 with just 52% and has been challenged many times. In a year like this, he could definitely go down, but I doubt Powell (who has no money) is the right guy to do it.

PA-10: Rep. Chris Carney is going up on the air with his first ads – and this time, there is word on the size of the buy. Carney’s spending $60K, which may not sound like a lot, but this is a really cheap-ass media market. Carney also has a huge cash advantage over his GOP opponent, ex-US Attorney Tom Marino: $800K to 11K as of June 30th, though Marino claims he has more than five times that (WOW!) on hand now.

TN-06: On election night, the Republican primary in the 6th CD ended crazily close, with a 31-30-30 near-tie between three candidates. The last place dude, Jim Tracy, finally conceded and endorsed Diane Black, the first-place dude. The second place dude (and yes, at SSP, we use “dude” to refer to all genders), Lou Ann Zelenik, is still contesting the results.

VA-05: What a weiner! Challengers usually jump at the chance for debates with incumbents, endlessly wheedling and begging and cajoling for any opportunity to raise their profile. But in a bizarre role reversal, Republican Rob Hurt is refusing to debate Rep. Tom Perriello – all because indy teabagger Jeff Clark was also invited to participate. Perriello both goaded and bear-hugged Hurt, saying: “If you’re too scared to make your case to the voters, then how easily are you going to get crushed up in Washington in terms of having any independence? It’s an important part of the process and I hope Sen. Hurt will show up and try to make his case.”

Teabaggers v. CoC: Sounds pretty dirty, doesn’t it? Well, I won’t tell you to get your mind out of the gutter, because that’s where SSP’s always is. Anyhow, the Huffington Post has a good rundown of the cycle-long war that’s been waged between the Chamber of Commerce, which likes their wingnuts anti-tax but establish-minty, and the teabaggers, who like their wingnuts deep-fried and weapons-grade. So far, the baggers have had an edge in primaries, despite the Chamber’s mighty resources. Loves it.

The main event of last night was the Republican gubernatorial primary, which ended surprisingly quickly, with a convincing victory by Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam. Haslam, the ostensible ‘moderate’ in the race, benefited from not only his lots of his own money, but also from having the moderate side to himself and a conservative pile-up in opposition (and the fact that Tennessee has no runoffs). He defeated Rep. Zach Wamp and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey 47-29-22. (In one more parallel to the Michigan governor primary, Wamp, who said in his concession speech that “The best candidate doesn’t always win,” can now compete with Rep. Peter Hoekstra as to which one can be the douchiest loser.) Haslam is certainly favored against Dem Mike McWherter in November.

In the House races, there were extremely close GOP primaries in the TN-03 and TN-06 open seats In the 3rd, the somewhat less objectionable Chuck Fleischmann beat former state party chair Robin Smith 30-28. In the 6th, Diane Black won with 31, over fellow state Sen. Jim Tracy and crazed Islamophobe Lou Ann Zelenik (with both at 30). Black faces Dem Brett Carter, who won a similarly close race.

Two other GOP primaries were less close. In TN-08, for the right to face Roy Herron to succeed retiring John Tanner, Stephen Fincher won a surprisingly convincing victory over two self-funders, Ron Kirkland and George Flinn, 48-24-24. And in potential sleeper race TN-04, to face Lincoln Davis, Scott DesJarlais beat Jack Bailey 37-27.

The very last race card may have been played in TN-09. In the third straight slime-covered Dem primary here that was all about race, embarrassing former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton came up woefully short in his quest (predicated almost entirely on Herenton being black and Cohen being white, in a black-majority district) to unseat Rep. Steve Cohen, by a 79-21 margin. Somehow I don’t think this’ll be the last primary Cohen ever sees, but hopefully they’ll be about something other than race in the future.

Finally, the 15 minutes of fame for Basil Marceaux — whose flag has 49 stars because he’ll be dead in the cold cold ground before he recognizes Missourah — seem to be up, as the viral video hero got 0% in the Republican TN-Gov primary and 1% in the TN-03 primary.

• TN-Gov (R): Bill Haslam hopes to bulls-eye a Wamp rat tonight (and Ron Ramsey for good measure). The Knoxville mayor is generally regarded as the frontrunner in the Republican gubernatorial field, in both polling and fundraising (much of which came out of his own pocket). Rep. Zach Wamp and Ramsey (the Lt. Governor) are further back in the polls, and trying to out-conservative each other in their messaging. In fact, this is starting to look like a replay of the Michigan GOP primary earlier this week, with the self-funding ‘moderate’ (to the extent that Haslam apparently once signed off on a tax increase, and isn’t as demagogic as the others) benefiting from a brawl between multiple conservatives.. and also in that while polling has shown Dem nominee Mike McWherter competitive against the conservative candidates, he matches up much less well against Haslam. There’s also a wild card in the form of viral video star Basil Marceaux, whose late-surging candidacy may make some inroads among the anti-traffic-stop, pro-immuning crowd. (C)

• TN-03 (R): Like Peter Hoekstra in MI-02, the joy of watching one of the House’s most execrable members (Zach Wamp, in this case) give up his seat for a gubernatorial primary faceplant is tempered somewhat by the knowledge that he’ll be replaced by someone just as nasty. There are 11 GOPers in this primary, but it’s really only a two-person race, between Club for Growth-backed former GOP state party chair Robin Smith and attorney, radio talk show host, and Mike Huckabee ally Chuck Fleischmann. (Smith, you might recall, was the GOP chair during the 2008 campaign, who released the infamous “Anti-Semites for Obama” press release that had him in African tribal garb. (C)

• TN-04 (R): We don’t have much intel on the Republican primary here, where the main contestants are attorney Jack Bailey, and physician Scott DesJarlais, but it’s worth keeping an eye on, as the victor will go on to face Rep. Lincoln Davis. Davis isn’t high on anyone’s target list, but in a big enough wave could get swept away just by virtue of his R+13 district. Bailey has a bit of a fundraising edge, probably thanks to connections from his former work as a Hill staffer. (C)

• TN-06 (R): Let the fur fly in this Middle Tennessee district currently held by outgoing Democrat Bart Gordon. The field counts eight Republicans, with three serious contenders in former Rutherford County GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik, state Senator Jim Tracy from the southern part of the district, and state Senator Diane Black, who represents two northern counties in the district. The mad dash, of course, is for the right, whether its immigration or misuse of government resources. Black released an internal that had her leading at 41% and Zelenik and Tracy mired in the twenties at 22 and 20, respectively. Look for sharp geographic distinctions here tonight, with each candidate having a different base in this rural-exurban district. (JMD)

• TN-08 (R): For the open seat of outgoing Dem John Tanner, five Republicans have jumped into the fray. The three frontrunners — agribusinessman Steve Fincher, Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn, and doctor Ron Kirkland — have been busy bashing each other to bits. All sorts of accusations have been thrown around — Flinn’s been attacked for owning a hip-hop station in Memphis, while Fincher’s caught flak for voting in the Democratic primary for local offices in May, and Kirkland’s on the defensive for steering contributions to Democrats in the past. All three are have significant warchests to play with (Fincher $421k cash-on-hand, Flinn $275k with the ability to self-fund, Kirkland $223k). So who’s going to emerge from this bare-knucle brawl? Fincher’s the NRCC’s preferred candidate, and a recent poll had him leading with 32 to Kirkland’s 23 and Flinn’s 21. This race is largely in the air (not that presumptive Dem. nominee Roy Herron’s complaining), though unfortunately, we’ll know the winner of this fight tonight, as Tennessee has no runoffs. (JMD)

• TN-09 (D): Two years ago, Nikki Tinker’s campaign against incumbent Dem. Steve Cohen was infuriating; this time, former Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton’s campaign is just laughable. Whether it’s claiming he’ll beat Cohen 3:1, losing the CBC’s endorsement to Cohen, or having less than 1/47th of Cohen’s cash-on-hand, Herenton’s campaign really makes you wonder. Let the mockery begin. (JMD)

UPDATE: Polls close at 8 pm ET/7 pm CT (the state is in both time zones, but apparently closing times are coordinated). As always, if you have predictions, let us know in the comments.

CO-Sen: An unknown group called New Leadership Colorado hired Zata|3 to take a poll of the Dem primary, and survey says that Sen. Michael Bennet has a slim 44-40 lead over upstart Andrew Romanoff. As Colorado Pols points out, even though NLC claims to have no relationship with either campaign, the group’s interests must lie with Romanoff – because no one affiliated with Bennet would want to release a poll that makes him look so vulnerable. Colorado Pols also observes that Zata|3, until this cycle, was not known as a pollster but rather as a firm that does robocalls and direct mail – and wonders why they’ve been tapped to do actual surveys.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is refusing to say whether he’d back gajillionaire asshole Jeff Greene should Greene win the Democratic primary. (According to Politico, Greene has “signaled he would support Meek.”) Politically speaking, if Meek crashes and burns, I wonder if he’d be better off endorsing Charlie Crist. After all, Crist is about a hundred (at least) times more likely to win the general than Greene, and since it seems he’d have to caucus with the Dems, backing him could earn Meek a chit or two down the line.

MO-Sen: A bunch of teabaggers are complaining that Michele Bachmann is coming to town to stump for her House colleague Roy Blunt – and not Chuck Purgason, the state senator who has failed to gain any traction in his primary bid. When Bachmann, the recent founder of the House Tea Party Caucus, isn’t passing purity tests, you know your movement has reached “Judean People’s Front” levels of absurdity.

NH-Sen: UNH, polling for WMUR, has AG Kelly Ayotte beating Dem Rep. Paul Hodes 45-37. That’s actually an improvement for Hodes from April’s 47-32 margin.

CO-Gov: The Denver Post has a helpful look at the American Constitution Party, the right-wing lunatic party whose line Tom Tancredo plans to run on for governor. Among other planks of their platform: repeal of the 17th amendment, repeal of the Endangered Species Act, and repeal of the Voting Rights Act. Sounds like they have a lot in common with the Republicans – they’re both the party of no!

IL-Gov, IL-10: Capitol Fax busts two Republicans for engaging in shady Internet-related shenanigans. First up, someone claiming to be with Bill Brady’s gubernatorial decided to vandalize Brady’s Wikipedia page, turning it into a campaign press release, more or less. Of course, the encyclopedia’s trusty editors quickly reverted these ridiculous edits – which only led to a revision war, as Brady’s stupid minions kept trying to push their nonsense. The page is now locked. As Capitol Fax reiterates, all this shit is permanent. As in, you get to look like an idiot forever.

Meanwhile, in suburban Chicago, GOPer Bob Dold’s campaign doesn’t seem to understand this lesson. He put up an item on his Facebook page the other day saying he supports Rep. Paul Ryan’s “Roadmap for America’s Future” – you know, the economic “plan” which calls for destroying Medicare and Social Security, among other things. After Dan Seals lacerated Dold’s punk ass for this, Dold took the post down. But the enterprising ArchPundit was smart enough to grab a screen capture while the post was still live. Explaining the deletion, a Dold hack said, “It’s Facebook. We put things up and take things down all the time.” Um, no – you don’t actually get to do that. Trust me on this one – I’m from the Internet.

TN-Gov: Dem gubernatorial candidate Mike McWherter is up on the air with his first ad, a positive bio-ish spot. NWOTSOTB, of course.

NC-07: Barf: Kelsey Grammer, that rare breed of Hollywood Republican, is coming to North Carolina to do fundraisers for GOPer Ilario Pantano, who is running against Rep. Mike McIntyre. Pantano, as you probably know, is best known for emptying two magazines from his M-16 into two Iraqi prisoners, killing them both, because he wanted to “send a message.”

NY-15: We’ll probably stop following this whip count soon, but anyhow, freshman Dem Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is now the third House incumbent to call on Charlie Rangel to resign. If the floodgates do open up on this, any latecomers to the bandwagon will see diminishing returns on their calls for resignation.

PA-06: Yesterday, we mentioned a Jim Gerlach internal which had him up 54-29 over Manan Trivedi. Well, the team down at the SSP Records & Storage went dumpster diving through our deep archive to dig up an old Gerlach internal from September of 2008. That survey showed him up 57-28 over Some Dude Bob Roggio. (SSPR&S believes that this might have actually been the very first “Some Dude” reference on SSP.) You will recall that Gerlach beat Roggio by just 52-48.

TN-06: That’s interesting: Veteran Brett Carter launched a TV ad touting his military experience. Then veteran Ben Leming launched a TV ad, touting his military experience. What’s interesting is that both of these guys are running in the Democratic primary – in a seat largely written off by national Dems. NWOTSOTB for either candidate, but both men have limited cash-on-hand (Carter $100K, Leming $35K).

DNC: The DNC just transferred $2.5 million to a number of sister organizations, including the DSCC, DCCC and three marquee gubernatorial campaigns (FL, MD and PA). Click the link for the complete breakdowns.

• CO-Sen: Both Democratic candidates are hitting the TV airwaves, with Michael Bennet trying once again to introduce himself to his constituents with a feel-good bio spot, and Andrew Romanoff’s first ad playing up the anti-corruption, anti-Washington angle he’s been working. Over on the Republican side, where Ken Buck seems to be putting some distance between himself and Jane Norton, Buck got some useful backing from the Dick Army: he snagged a FreedomWorks endorsement. Norton’s 2005 support for TABOR-limiting Referendum C seems to have been a dealbreaker for the teabaggers.

• KY-Sen: PPP, fresh off its Rand Paul/Jack Conway poll yesterday, also has some approval numbers out for Mitch McConnell. It’s more evidence that the most dangerous job in America is party leader in the Senate. McConnell’s numbers are dwindling, and his backing of Trey Grayson over Paul in the GOP primary seems to have accelerated that: he’s down to 34/48, after having had favorables in the 40s in their previous polls, with almost all of his decline coming from Republicans. 49% of all respondents would like to see him lose his leadership role, with only 38% saying continue.

• NH-Sen: Big money for Kelly Ayotte this quarter: she raised $720K last quarter, her biggest quarter so far. No word on her CoH.

• NV-Sen: With their empty coffers suddenly replenished, the Karl Rove-led 527 American Crossroads decided to keep their anti-Harry Reid attack ad on the air in Nevada for the fourth straight week. They’ve spent nearly half a million airing the same ad.

• NY-Sen-B: Although the terrible disarray in the state GOP can’t be helping matters, New York’s unique ballot access laws just seem to encourage self-destructive behavior by the local Republicans. With Republican/Conservative/Independence Party splits threatening to result in multiple viable right-of-center candidates in races ranging from NY-01 to NY-23, now cat fud is about to start flying in the Senate race. David Malpass, seeming a long shot in the Republican field, has said that he’s going to seek the ballot line on the as-yet-to-be-named teabagger’s ballot line that gubernatorial candidate Carl Paladino is trying to create, most likely to be called the Taxpayer’s line. Malpass, as you’ll recall, is lagging in GOP primary polls against Joe DioGuardi, who already has the Conservative line but is trying to petition onto the GOP ballot, and Bruce Blakeman, who’s assured a spot on the GOP ballot. This may even spill over into the who-cares other Senate race, where Gary Berntsen wants in on the Taxpayer’s line (and where rival Jay Townsend already has the Conservative line).

• WA-Sen: The Washington Farm Bureau, which endorsed Dino Rossi in his two failed gubernatorial bids, has decided not to endorse anybody in the Senate race. Goldy wonders whether this is a matter of lots of Clint Didier supporters at the Farm Bureau… Didier, after all, is a farmer… or if the Farm Bureau secretly likes Patty Murray’s skill at appropriations.

• WV-Sen: Gov. Joe Manchin held a press conference today to announce his plans on the vacant Senate seat, and it seems like the institutional pressure on him to fill the seat soon (preferably with himself) seems to be working. Manchin stopped short of calling on the state legislature to have a special session to move up the election to Nov. 2010, but he did tell his AG to start laying the legal groundwork for such a move. Manchin again said that he wouldn’t appoint himself to the seat on a temporary basis, but confirmed that he would be “highly” interested in running for the seat whenever the special election occurs. (He didn’t give any inkling on who he might appoint.) At any rate, it seems like Manchin feels confident that, despite the national downdraft for Dems this year, his own personal popularity, combined with the shortened election schedule working to his advantage, would facilitate his election in November; if he didn’t, he wouldn’t be going along so readily with the moved-up election.

• CO-Gov: Democratic nominee John Hickenlooper had better hope the contributions keep coming in: he’s sitting on only $66K CoH right now (although he raised $500K in June alone), but he just reserved $1.2 million in ad time. The plan is to lock the ad space in now, when it’s still cheap to reserve far in advance. On the Republican side of the aisle, insurgent candidate Dan Maes is in some trouble: he’s being hit with the largest fine ever handed down to a Colorado candidate for campaign finance donations. It was for a series of small-ball failures rather than one huge blunder, ranging from improper reimbursements to himself for mileage, to failure to list occupations for many donors.

• OK-Gov: As I remarked yesterday, it’s a remarkable transformation for Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer, who in a few months went from DOA in her own primary, to competing with Sarah Palin in terms of traversing the country handing out GOP primary endorsements like so much poisoned candy. (What’s something Arizona-specific that we can call her clutch of endorsees? Mama Rattlesnakes?) Brewer waded into another gubernatorial race, giving her backing to Rep. Mary Fallin in Oklahoma.

• PA-Gov: Democratic nominee Dan Onorato seems to be kicking his fundraising operations into higher gear after having won the primary; he pulled in $1 million in contributions in the last month. He’s sitting on $2.5 million CoH.

• TX-Gov: The plot (to get the Green Party on the ballot in Texas) keeps thickening. New e-mails have surfaced among Green leaders revealing the name of Anthony Holm, a GOP consultant linked to big-time GOP donor Bob Perry (the man behind the Swift Boat Vets), saying that he wanted to pay for 40% of the costs of petitions to get the Greens on the ballot. Holm denies any involvement.

• MN-06: It looks like the 6th, held by lightning rod Michele Bachmann, is going to be the nation’s most expensive House race this year. Democratic challenger Tarryl Clark posted big numbers this morning, raising $910K this quarter, claiming $2 million raised so far this cycle. (No mention of her CoH.) Then later this morning, Bachmann topped that, raising $1.7 million last quarter, giving her $4.1 million CoH, which would be plenty even for a Senate race.

• TN-06: State Sen. Diane Black has a GOP primary lead in an internal poll taken for her by OnMessage. She’s at 41, leading former Rutherford County GOP chair Lou Ann Zelenik at 22 and state Sen. Jim Tracy at 20. Black (or whoever else wins) should have an easy time picking up this R+13 Dem-held open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Bart Gordon.

• TN-08: Here’s one more GOP primary internal poll out of Tennessee, from the Stephen Fincher camp. His poll, conducted by the Tarrance Group, gives Fincher the lead at 32, followed by Ron Kirkland at 23 and George Flinn at 21. Attacks on Fincher by the other two seem to have taken their toll, as Fincher’s previous internal poll from early April gave him a 40-17-7 lead. As with the poll in the 6th, there’s no word on general election matchups.

• WI-07: Republican Sean Duffy, bolstered by David Obey’s retirement (and a Sarah Palin endorsement), had a big quarter, raising $470K. He’s at $670K CoH.

• Legislatures: If you read one thing today, this should be it: Stateline.org’s Louis Jacobson handicaps all the state legislative chambers that promise to be competitive this year. As you might expect, the news isn’t very good for Democrats, considering not just the nature of the year but how many chambers they currently hold. He projects one currently Democratic-controlled chamber as Lean R (the Indiana House), and has 11 nominally Dem-held chambers as Tossups (both Alabama chambers, Iowa House, Montana House, both New Hampshire chambers, New York Senate, Ohio House, Pennsylvania House, and both Wisconsin chambers). The only nominally GOP-held chamber that’s a Tossup is the Alaska Senate, which is in fact controlled by a coalition of sane Republicans and Democrats.

• NRCC: The NRCC seems to like slapping lots of different names on different groups so that they look busy, and now they’ve even come up with a program for primary victors who are running in safe Republican seats: “Vanguard!” There’s no word on what exactly they plan to do for these shoo-ins, or if it’s just an impressive-sounding title so that the likes of Jeff Duncan and Todd Rokita don’t feel left out.

• Fundraising: The Fix has a couple other fundraising tidbits that we haven’t seen before: Craig Miller in FL-24 raised $270K for 2Q with $332K CoH. And Charlie Bass in NH-02 raised $170K and has $360K CoH.

• Idaho: The numbers from Idaho’s primary election last night that everyone is focused on is state Rep. Raul Labrador’s somewhat surprising victory over Vaughn Ward in ID-01, by a 48-39 margin. This means that the NRCC-preferred, Sarah Palin-endorsed candidate lost… although given the way Ward’s wheels fell off over the last few weeks, Republicans may be breathing a sigh of relief. Not that Labrador may turn out that well either, as he’s poorly-funded and apparently not a favorite of the local establishment (as he’s tight with ex-Rep. Bill Sali). Democratic freshman Rep. Walt Minnick may actually be feeling… dare I say it… confident going into November?

ID-02 had some eyebrow-raising numbers too, consistent with mediocre primary performances from establishment incumbents on both sides of the aisle in previous months; Rep. Mike Simpson — not exactly a moderate, but certainly not the flamethrower you’d expect in such a dark-red district – had an unexpectedly rough time in the GOP primary, winning against Chick Heileson only 58-24. And incumbent GOP governor Butch Otter, who’d looked dominant in polling, got a teabagging of his own, scoring only 55% while rancher Rex Rammell (the only guy around with a name even manlier than “Butch Otter”) got 25%, as apparently there was a lot of resentment on the right over Otter’s failed attempt to raise the state gas tax. Dem nominee Keith Allred has a fundraising lead over Otter and good bipartisan credentials as former head of group Common Interest; combined with Otter’s underperformance in the primary, that leaves us thinking Allred might have a legitimate shot here.

• CA-Sen: Anti-abortion group the Susan B. Anthony List (whom you might remember from their involvement in the WV-01 Dem primary) is getting involved in California, in support of Carly Fiorina. They’re spending $215K in IEs, as Fiorina opposes the pro-choice Tom Campbell in the GOP primary.

• IN-Sen: The spotlight is starting to turn back toward Dan Coats’ lobbying past, with state Democrats demanding that Coats disclose a full list of his lobbying clients. Coats (who worked for law firm King & Spaulding as a lobbyist) is citing attorney-client privilege as a reason for keeping mum, although recent court cases have made clear that the privilege doesn’t extend to lobbying activities.

• KY-Sen: No matter how pure you try to be, someone’s always going to be more pure than you: dissatisfied with Rand Paul’s sops to Republican orthodoxy, the Libertarian Party is saying that they’re planning to run a candidate against him in November. They’re accusing Paul of having deviated from the Libertarian line on social issues and foreign policy. Meanwhile, the Paul camp’s emergency retooling continues apace; he’s hired Jesse Benton as his new campaign manager (to replace David Adams, who was the behind-the-scenes equivalent of Some Dude). Benton’s not a GOP establishment figure, though; he was the communications director for the 2008 Ron Paul presidential campaign.

• NV-Sen: The feathers are flying in the Nevada GOP primary, where the Club for Growth is taking aim at the very large target on Sue Lowden’s back, hitting her for voting to raise taxes while in the state Senate and her previous support for Harry Reid. The CfG, of course, endorsed opponent Sharron Angle last week.

• CA-Gov: MoveOn co-founder Peter Schurman apparently got tired of polling at 1% in the Democratic primary, and ended his recently-launched bid against Jerry Brown. Seeming satisfied that Brown has been stepping up his game lately, he threw his backing to Brown.

• FL-Gov: It’s looking like insiders are realizing that Bill McCollum screwed up by letting wealthy health care magnate Rick Scott run rampant on their airwaves for the last month, letting him get a major foothold in the GOP primary. Now rumors suggest that an unnamed independent group is about to start a major advertising blitz on McCollum’s behalf, to try and level the playing field.

• NV-Gov:  The most recent batch of polls have shown incumbent GOP governor Jim Gibbons down but not out in the Republican primary. But with the primary only a few weeks away, this new poll from the RGA by POS looks like Gibbons is in too deep a hole to dig out of: Brian Sandoval is at 50, with Gibbons at 27 and Mike Montandon at 11.

• NY-Gov: It’s convention time in New York, and now that Andrew Cuomo isn’t playing coy any more, his first order of business is picking a running mate. He’s chosen Rochester mayor Robert Duffy for the position. Duffy will still need to win his own primary, though, before getting joined to the ticket (a la Scott Lee Cohen in Illinois). Cuomo also got welcome news from the Independence Party: he’ll be getting that centrist third party’s line on the ballot in November. (The IP backed Eliot Spitzer last time, but rich weirdo Tom Golisano three times before that.)

• OH-01: In the War of the Steves, Republican ex-Rep. Steve Chabot is out with a poll giving himself a substantial lead over freshman Democratic Rep. Steve Driehaus. The poll by POS gives Chabot a 53-39 lead. That’s actually a smaller Chabot lead than that notorious Firedoglake poll from January, but regardless, Driehaus is going to need huge African-American turnout in Cincinnati if he’s going to pull this out.

• OH-16: If that wasn’t enough, there’s also a Republican poll of the 16th giving a significant lead to Jim Renacci, who has a 47-35 lead over fellow Democratic freshman Rep. John Boccieri. The press release touts this as an independent poll, but it was conducted by Republican pollster Fabrizio, McClaughlin, & Associates, and it was paid for by the innocuous-sounding U.S. Citizens Association who, if you go to their website, have a major ax to grind over health care reform (for which Boccieri was a ‘no’ to ‘yes’ vote).

• TN-06: Illegal immigration isn’t the kind of issue you’d expect to take center stage in rural Tennessee, but in the race to succeed retiring Bart Gordon, the two main GOP contestants are trying to outflank each other to the right on the issue. State Sen. Jim Tracy is accusing state Sen. Diane Black of trying to water down legislation requiring local authorities to report the arrest of illegal immigrants to ICE.

• Polltopia: Jonathan Chait joins the chorus of Rasmussen doubters, pointing nicely to Rasmussen’s role in the cycle of right-wing epistemic closure. Nate Silver also an interesting tidbit that promises to be part of a forthcoming larger revamping of his pollster ratings, one that seems likely not to see Rasmussen in as positive a light as his previous ratings: he finds that while Rasmussen was OK in 2004 and 2006,  its performance in 2000 was way off, as they missed seven states, with a Republican bias of 3.5%.

Welcome to the workin’ week!

FL-Sen: Rudy & Rubio, together at last. Giuliani will become the latest johnny-come-lately to endorse Marco.

GA-Sen: Johnny Isakson, who had been hospitalized twice in one week, is now back home.

KY-Sen: Weirdo Rand Paul is launching a 1,000-point ad buy (that’s big) attacking Trey Grayson as a pro-bailout insider too cozy with DC. The primary is about six weeks away. On the Dem side, The Lexington Herald-Leader reviewed state records and found that Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo has spent four times as much taxpayer money on travel, hotels and meals as AG Jack Conway. Mongiardo has also racked up expenses for the security detail that travels with him (Conway doesn’t have security).

NV-Sen: Jon Ralston says that federal investigators are looking to nail John Ensign for “structuring,” which is “a broad term that refers to the crime of creating financial transactions to evade reporting requirements.” Ensign, you’ll recall, had his parents give a $96,000 “gift” to his mistress instead of reporting it as a severance payment. The DoJ is moving very methodically, though, ever-mindful of the wretchedly botched prosecution of ex-Sen. Ted Stevens (which was thrown out on appeal due to prosecutorial misconduct.)

SD-Sen: Ugh. Not only did no Democrats file to run against John Thune, but he’s become the first senator in South Dakota history to run without major-party opposition. My advice to John Thune: Save your $6 million warchest for a 2012 presidential run.

UT-Sen: Sen. Bob Bennett and his Republican challengers faced off in a debate last Friday, which saw Bennett defend earmarks and get attacked for supporting an individual mandate to buy health insurance. The GOP state convention, which will choose a nominee, is May 8th.

AL-Gov: Hah – Artur Davis, fresh off his vote against healthcare reform, is now pushing a petition on his website attacking Alabama state legislators who voted to “obstruct” the new bill.

IA-Gov: Republican pollster Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies has a survey of the Iowa gubernatorial race, showing Terry Branstand crushing incumbent Dem Chet Culver 50 to 34. Culver leads Bob Vander Plaats 40-39 and Rod Roberts 38-32. It’s unclear to me whether Magellan was polling for fun or if this was on behalf of a client.

MA-Gov: Politico has a piece describing the extraordinary efforts Obama’s political team is making to help Gov. Deval Patrick win re-election. Patrick has visited the White House half a dozen times over the past year, and he’s the only office-seeker so far (other than Harry Reid) to have a fundraiser headlined by the president himself.

PA-Gov: The Philadelphia Daily News obtained an interesting strategy memo penned by the campaign of Dem Dan Onorato. Apparently, Onorato was prepared to challenge the signatures of opponents Joe Hoeffel and Anthony Williams. However, since Hoeffel didn’t move to challenge Williams’ signatures, Onorato’s campaign apparently decided it was better to leave both of them alone, figuring it would be better to have two candidates from the Philly region in the race rather than one. (Onorato hails from Western PA.)

UT-Gov: Salt Lake County Mayor and Dem gubernatorial candidate Peter Corroon says he raised more than $360,000 since the start of the year. No word yet on GOP Gov. Gary Herbert’s haul.

AL-03: Dems found someone to replace Josh Segall on the ballot at the last minute: Montgomery native Steve Segrest, who lost to GOPer Kay Ivey in the Treasurer’s race in 2006. Segrest comes from a political family: His father served in the Alabama House and his grandfather, Napoleon Broward, was elected governor… of Florida… in 1905. In some other Alabama news, state Sen. Jim Preuitt, who had long been on the outs with the Democrats, switched parties to the GOP.

FL-08: GOP Bruce O’Donoghue says he raised $300K since joining the race, and has a similar amount on hand. O’Donoghue’s camp says that this sum does not include any self-donations.

NH-01, NH-02: Dem Ann McLane Kuster, seeking Paul Hodes’ open seat in NH-02, says she raised $285K in Q1, and apparently has made a record haul from New Hampshire residents. Supposedly Katrina Swett will announce a bigger haul, but no numbers yet. Meanwhile, GOPer Frank Guinta, running in NH-01, supposedly raised $250K, including $100K of his own money. (Guinta’s fundraising had been pretty sucky prior to this.)

NY-19: The Republican field to take on Dem Rep. John Hall still seems very unsettled. Ophthalmologist Nan Hayworth has gotten a lot of love from the NRCC, but a broad swath of the GOP establishment in the 19th CD doesn’t seem to feel similarly, and she faces several strong opponents. One of them, former Pentagon analyst Kristia Cavere, says she raised $200K in Q1 & will soon convert her exploratory committee into the real thing. Meanwhile, ex-Tuxedo Mayor David McFadden says he’s raised about $100K. He also says that if he doesn’t win the party’s nomination at the May convention, he’ll drop out.

PA-07: Dem Bryan Lentz is challenging the validity of GOP opponent Pat Meehan’s signatures. As we noted previously, Lentz is also questioning the impartiality of the investigator, which happens to be Republican AG Tom Corbett’s office. Lentz now has a new arrow in his quiver: Some of the same people who circulated petitions for Meehan also did so for Corbett. Even better, it looks like some local GOP leaders may have signed false affidavits saying they personally gathered signatures, even though others may have actually carried the petitions.

SD-AL: Physician Kevin Weiland had planned to challenge Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Democratic primary after she voted “no” on healthcare. But Weiland pulled out at the last minute, after receiving calls from Steny Hoyer, and Chris Van Hollen. He also spoke with Herseth Sandlin herself, and reportedly “negotiated an assurance from Herseth Sandlin that she would reconnect with her Democratic base in South Dakota and never vote for a repeal of the health care plan.” Doesn’t sound like much. He also apparently cheesed off one-time Obama strategist Steve Hildebrand, who declined to run himself but worked overtime to help Weiland gather signatures (he only had a week in which to do it) to qualify for the ballot.

TN-06: Another veteran is entering this open-seat race on the Democratic side. Brett Carter, an attorney and TN National Guardsman who served in Iraq, joins Marine Capt. Ben Leming in the Dem field.

TN-08: Things are really starting to get hot in the GOP primary in Tennessee’s 8th CD. The Republican establishment isn’t just stumping for agribusiness magnate Steve Fincher – they’re actively attacking his opposition. Georgia Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, whose trip to Fincher’s district we noted in an earlier digest, slammed physician Ron Kirkland for allegedly being wobbly on the healthcare reform bill and for his past support of Democrats. (Kirkland previously said he liked most of what was in the bill, except for the public option – and when he was chair of the American Medical Group Association when they made donations to Max Baucus.) Kirkland is no random teabagger pushover, which is why he’s drawing fire. This could be an unusually interesting primary.

TX-17: The Texas Tribune takes a look at the two Republicans in a run-off for the privilege of facing Dem Chet Edwards in the fall: 2008 nominee Rob Curnock and oil exec Bill Flores. Here’s an interesting detail: Flores voted in the Democratic presidential primary in 2008, supposedly “casting his ballot against Barack Obama.” That’s some cute spin, but if he voted for Hillary Clinton (he won’t say), I don’t really see how that helps him. But in any event, Flores outraised Curnock by a huge margin, $214K to $16K, in newly-filed pre-runoff FEC reports.

WA-03: Ex-state Rep. Denny Heck (D) says he raised $350K in the first quarter (including $150K of his own money), leaving him with $530K on hand.

Census: There’s a bill pending in both houses of the NY state legislature that would require counting prison inmates as part of their home communities, rather than upstate, where most prisons are located. Given how dysfunctional the lege is, though, there’s no telling if this badly-needed reform will actually see the light of day.

Fundraising: GOP bigs are hitting the trail on behalf of their brethren during the congressional recess. John Boehner is helping Californians Mary Bono Mack and Ken Calvert, Pete Sessions is helping Illinoisans Randy Hultgren and Adam Kinzinger, and a bunch of other top Republicans are also putting their backs into things.

Redistricting: Former DCCC nat’l field director Casey O’Shea will replace Brian Smoot as head of the National Democratic Redistricting Trust. Smoot is leaving to head up the DSCC’s independent expenditure arm. (And O’Shea and Smoot are consulting partners.)

WATN: Dede Scozzafava says she’s working on a memoir about last year’s special election race. Can’t wait to read it! She also says she’s unsure about whether she’ll seek reelection to her seat in the Assembly this year.

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