Tag: DNC

• NM-Sen (PDF): What happens if you took a poll and no one answered? That’s what this Tulchin Research poll (taken on behalf of the Defenders of Wildlife) feels like to me, what with its sample size of just 213 likely Democratic primary voters. If you’re trying to figure out the margin of error, you’ll need to start counting on your other hand – it’s 6.7%. Anyhow, the results, such as they are: 1st CD Rep. Martin Heinrich: 32; Lt. Gov. Diane Denish: 25; 3rd CD Rep. Ben Ray Luján’s: 15; State Auditor Hector Balderas: 5; and 24% undecided. I think it’s very unlikely that the field would develop this way, but I still think these “round up the usual suspects” polls can be valuable – if they have enough respondents, that is.

• OH-Sen: This kind of speculation is always seriously moronic… but hey, I live to serve. So in case you want to imagine a world where the Republican presidential nominee wins next year, and he’s picked Sen. Rob Portman as his running mate, Roll Call is happy to indulge your grim dystopian fantasy about a suddenly open Senate seat in Ohio come Jan. 20, 2013.

• WV-Gov: Democratic State House Speaker Rick Thompson just earned the endorsement of two teachers’ unions:  The West Virginia Federation of Teachers and the West Virginia Education Association. The primary here for this oddly-timed special election (necessary because of ex-Gov. Joe Manchin’s Senate victory last year) is coming up very soon, May 14th.

• CT-05: Kevin Rennie mentions a couple of possible Democratic prospects to replace Rep. Chris Murphy, who of course is running for Senate. One is 28-year-old pr strategist Dan Roberti, whose father Vincent was once a state rep. The other is CNBC reporter and former local news anchor Brian Schactman.

• NV-02: A piece in the WaPo has 2006 and 2008 Dem nominee Jill Derby sounding pretty interested – she said she’s considering forming an exploratory committee. (Ridiculous as that sounds – I mean, she’s considering whether to consider? – that actually counts as pretty aggressive talk in this hyper-cautious age.) The story also mentions another possible name, Assemblywoman Debbie Smith, as well as noting that state Treasurer Kate Marshall (whom we flagged as another potential candidate yesterday) calling the race “absolutely winnable.”

• NY-26: Republican Jane Corwin has her first ad out (NWOTSOTB), in which she repeatedly touts her supposed small business credentials but doesn’t mention that she’s a Republican. In some not-so-happy news, New York’s Green Party is saying they are likely to endorse Ian Murphy, the guy behind the fake David Koch call to WI Gov. Scott Walker, as their nominee. That means they probably won’t cross-endorse whoever winds up being the Democratic nominee… and that signals a long four years ahead of us. (Thanks to scoring 50,000 votes in last year’s gubernatorial election, the Greens get an automatic ballot spot in every race in the state through 2016.) Green Party co-chair Peter LaVenia says he doesn’t think that Murphy will “siphon votes” from the Dem… oy, christ, this is giving me nightmarish flashbacks to debates with idiotic Naderites in 2000. I can’t do this again.

• Wisconsin Recall: Let’s talk about Randy Hopper. If you’ll click the link, you can hear a ridiculously misleading radio ad that he’s just gone up with. The lying isn’t the point – it’s the fact that he’s on the defensive, a place you never want to be. And he knows, it, too – which is why he’s gone out and hired Jeff Harvey, who most recently managed Rep. Dave Reichert’s (WA-08) successful campaign last year. That’s a pretty big gun to bring in to a state lege race, so how can Hopper afford something like that? Well, state Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald and several lackeys (including recall target Alberta Darling) were in DC last night, picking up cash at a high-dollar fundraiser held at Haley Barbour’s lobbying firm (more-or-less in exchange for gunning through that infamous bit of right-to-work legislation). The optics couldn’t be better! But cold, sweet cash can move mountains.

In related news, HuffPo’s Sam Stein tries to track down elusive information about the state of the attempted recalls of Democratic senators. It sounds like it’s going poorly: An uncoordinated mess by different groups which launched different efforts at different times. The Wisconsin Republican Party has refused to get involved, and apparently the recall has been whittled down to just three target senators (from the original eight). I would not be hugely surprised if they would up with zero.

• Philly Mayor: This is pretty funny: Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter faces no real primary opposition, but he’s still trying to bounce the crazy brother of former Mayor John Street, Milton, from the ballot. Among other things, Nutter is alleging that Street doesn’t meet the residency requirements, which say that candidates have to live in the city for three years prior to the election. Where was Street? Serving a 30-month sentence in federal prison on tax evasion charges – in Kentucky.

• SF Mayor: SurveyUSA has a poll out for the San Francisco mayoral race slated for this November. SF uses instant run-off voting (IRV), so SUSA asked people to pick their first, second, and third choices. Interim Mayor Ed Lee (who filled in for Gavin Newsom when he won the Lt. Gov. race last fall) says he isn’t running but actually gets the most first-choice votes. Here’s the full field:

Ed Lee, interim Mayor, 17%

Michaela Alioto-Pier, former Board of Supervisors member, 12%

Leeland Yee, State Senator, 11%

David Chiu, Board of Supervisors President, 10%

Dennis Herrera, City Attorney, 9%

Bevan Dufty, former Supervisor, 8%

Click through the link to see second and third choices.

• DCCC: Steve Israel talked a bunch with the Hotline about candidate recruitment. The most interesting thing is his “alumni association” of former members of Congress who are thinking about running again. He holds “semi-regular” (Hotline’s phrase) conference calls with “the vast majority of former members.” Israel says that in recent weeks, interest and attendance has spiked, and I have to guess that recent Democratic enthusiasm inspired heavily by protests in the Midwest has been a factor. Israel also insists that ex-MoCs who have closed down their campaign accounts or taken lobbying jobs are not necessarily taking themselves out of the game; he sympathetically argues that some folks simply need the cash. Of course, optics aside, K Street might just seem a lot more comfortable than the campaign trail grind to many of these folks

• DNC: The usual unnamed Democrats are telling Politico they think Ted Strickland is a “strong contender” to replace Tim Kaine at the DNC if the latter decides to run for the Senate in Virginia. I think the world of Strickland, but I’d hate to see his considerable talents get muzzled at the DNC. I just don’t think that a proud populist is going to be able to speak his mind while at the Obama DNC.

• Votes: Dave Catanese has a run-down on the House members seeking (or likely to seek) statewide office and how they voted on the most recent temporary budget bill. A big swath of Republicans voted “no” (i.e., against their party), after having previously voted for the prior continuing resolution, likely out of fears of getting teabagger (because the bills don’t cut spending enough). Meanwhile, several Democrats in the same boat all voted “yes.”

• WATN?: My word:

A seven-count indictment accuses Tom Ganley, a high-profile auto dealer and onetime congressional candidate, of kidnapping a 39-year-old Cleveland woman and having sexual contact with her.

Ganley, 68, faces three felony charges of gross sexual imposition, and single counts of kidnapping, abduction, solicitation, and menacing by stalking, according to Ryan Miday, a spokesman for County Prosecutor Bill Mason.

Redistricting Roundup:

• Mississippi: Looks like Lt. Gov. and gubernatorial aspirant Phil Bryant is getting his ass handed to him. Bryant attempted to interfere with the state Senate’s attempt to draw a new map by instead offering his own. Bryant’s plan was rejected by the Senate (which we noted on Tuesday). Now, the Senate’s original plan has been adopted by the House. So it looks like an incumbent-protection deal has been reached, with the Democratic-held House and the Republican-controlled Senate each getting their way. But even with a Dem gerrymander, you’ve got to believe it’s only a matter of time before the House falls, too.

• General: Politico has a piece discussing the GOP’s overall strategy of playing it safe with redistricting this decade, and to avoid “dummymanders” like the one in Pennsylvania which proved (at least temporarily) disastrous to the party.

• AK-Sen: As is often the case, Alaska dominates our headlines today. Perhaps biggest in its implications is a hot-off-the-grill ruling from a judge that says that the state can’t provide a list of possible write-in candidates for people in the voting booth. Obviously, that hurts the cumbersome-named Lisa Mukrosky Morkoski Gibr Murkowski. Also, in the good news (well, maybe not, considering how far her star has fallen in-state) column for Joe Miller: Sarah Palin will be returning to the Last Frontier to stump for him tomorrow.

On the bad news front for Miller, though, first, he had to shout “I LIE!” yet again. That’s a confession from his own work e-mails, over his now-well-known reprimand for hijacking (and covering up his tracks) of co-workers’ computers to rig a local Republican online straw poll. That’s at the core of his Fairbanks personnel files, released last evening after he declined to appeal their release to the state supreme court. On top of that, now the Army is investigating his use of its soldiers from Fort Richardson to act as his personal paramilitary force during their off-hours; in addition to rules prohibiting active military members from involvement in political campaigns, it’s unclear whether they had their commander’s permission to seek outside employment.

• CA-Sen: Here’s some good news; Carly Fiorina bounced back quickly from her hospitalization yesterday for an infection associated with her breast cancer recovery, and left the hospital today. She’ll be back on the trail tomorrow, says her campaign.

• CO-Sen: Would you believe this is the biggest-money Senate race anywhere in the country? It is, if you go by outside group expenditures. 27 different IE groups have spent nearly $25 million in Colorado, with the NRSC leading the way. (Nevada will still probably wind up the most expensive overall, factoring in the candidates’ own accounts.) Meanwhile Ken Buck is in the news for two other reasons, first, his questioning of the separation of the church and state… handled more elegantly than Christine O’Donnell’s palm-to-forehead method, but still probably a liability as he seeks to downplay his extremism. And also, he’s now agnostic on whether he’ll support Mitch McConnell for GOP leader (Buck, of course, owes Jim DeMint big-time for getting him as far as he’s gotten).

• WV-Sen: Wow, this stuff literally writes itself. John Raese, under fire from Joe Manchin and the DSCC for his Florida mansion (and, for all practical purposes, residency), is now going to have to put some spin on this. The current item on the agenda for the Palm Beach planning commission: approval for Raese to replace a six-by-eight-foot “giant dollhouse” on his property with a fourteen-by-fifteen-foot “glass conservatory,” perfect for those real-life Clue re-enactments. I know that’s a problem that most West Virginians grapple with on a day-to-day basis.

• AZ-Gov: Now here’s an October Surprise that’s pushing the envelope (close to a November Surprise). Old documents reveal that Jan Brewer, a state Senator at the time, was involved in a 1988 auto accident where she was suspected at the time of driving under the influence. While she was immune from arrest at the time because the legislature was in session, it’s not clear why the case wasn’t pursued after that.

• MS-04: This might provide a small boost (dozens of votes?) to Gene Taylor: the Republican who lost the primary to state Rep. Steven Palazzo threw his backing to Taylor. Joe Tegerdine, interestingly, was the Tea Party candidate in the GOP race (with Palazzo the establishment pick), and finished with 43% of the vote; Tegerdine seemed to frame his decision very much in terms of pissing off the Republican establishment, in fact.

• Dark Money: If you look at only one link today, it should be this one, where a picture is worth way more than 1,000 words. It shows the octopus tentacles linking all the various shadowy outside groups that have poured in hundreds of millions of undisclosed dollars, and how they all kind of link back to Republican leadership. It’s almost worthy of Glenn Beck’s blackboard (well, if it had Woodrow Wilson and Diego Rivera on there somewhere).

• DNC: To quote Don Brodka, “if I wanted smoke blown up my ass, I’d be at home with a pack of cigarettes and short length of hose.” Nevertheless, the DNC is out with a memo today showing in various ways how the Republican wave hasn’t materialized, at least not in the form of early voting patterns so far, that’s worth a look-see (especially the graphs).

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC has two spots in Colorado, both with citizens reciting the litany of why they can’t vote for Ken Buck

• IL-Sen: The DSCC links Mark Kirk to George W. Bush, while Alexi Giannoulias trots out the Obamas in his own ad

• MO-Sen: I seriously can’t summon up anything interesting to say about the last ads from Roy Blunt and Robin Carnahan; it’s been that sort of race

• NV-Sen: The DSCC finishes in Nevada by pointing out how Sharron Angle consistently brings teh crazy

• PA-Sen: The DSCC hits Pat Toomey on outsourcing yet again, while Pat Toomey goes blandly autobiographical for his closing spot

• WA-Sen: The DSCC’s parting shot is to hit Dino Rossi over his web of connections to unsavory real estate and lending partners

• WI-Sen: Both candidates close by ragging on each other; Ron Johnson hits Russ Feingold for only being fake “mavericky,” while Feingold asks why Johnson is being so vague and cagey about his agenda

• WV-Sen: The DSCC’s newest ad hits John Raese on the Florida residency issue yet again

• ND-AL: This may be the most interesting ad of the day: Earl Pomeroy faces the camera and says “I’m not Nancy Pelosi, and I’m not Barack Obama” (yeah, that’s pretty evident by looking at you); he pivots off people’s anger to say they’ll be even angrier, though, if Republicans go against the farm bill, Social Security, and so on

• WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s last ad beats the ‘change’ drum, and focuses on the Seattle Times endorsement again

• Rasmussen:

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 46%, LeAlan Jones (G) 5%

• MD-Sen: Barb Mikulski (D-inc) 56%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 35%, Brian Sandoval (R) 58%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 46%, Chris Dudley (R) 49%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 42%, Scott Walker (R) 52%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 49%, John Raese (R) 46%

(ooops, time for Scotty to get in line with everyone else on this one!)

• AK-Sen: Where even to start in Alaska? With vague reports of Joe Miller in “free fall” in private polling, both the NRSC and his own personal kingmaker, Jim DeMint, are having to step in with advertising in order to back him up. The NRSC’s buy is for $162K, which I’m sure they’d rather spend putting out fires in Pennsylvania and Kentucky instead of on a should-have-been-sure-thing… and the ad (which focuses on Barack Obama, not Lisa Murkowski or Scott McAdams) can be seen here. DeMint’s ad is for $100K and touts Miller’s pro-life credentials.

Meanwhile, the drip-drip of unsavory stuff from Miller’s past keeps coming. It turns out he worked for one of Alaska’s top law firms after graduating from Yale, prior to sliding down the food chain to working for the borough of Fairbanks; while they wouldn’t elaborate because of personnel policies, a firm partner said they were “not eager” to have him stay on and “relieved” when he left after three years. Also, a CPA with commercial property knowledge should double-check a look at this story before we start alleging wrongdoing, but it’s an interesting catch: Miller may have been paying himself ridiculously-above-market rents on the law office he owned, in order to game his taxes. And finally, with the damage already done, it looks like no charges will be filed in the “irrational blogger” handcuffing incident, either against Tony Hopfinger or Miller’s hired goons.

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway succeeded in getting an NRSC ad pulled from a local TV station, seeing as how the whole premise was based on a lie (that Conway has supported cap-and-trade). WHAS-TV pulled the ad after the NRSC was unable to provide convincing sources for the alleged quotes.

• MO-Sen: This might be too little too late, but Roy Blunt is the third Republican candidate in the last month to get a bad case of housekeeper-itis. State Democrats released documents yesterday showing that in 1990 Blunt hired an “illegal worker” and then tried to expedite the citizenship process for her. Blunt’s campaign says she never worked directly for them, only for some church events, but the documents say she had “done some work” for Blunt’s wife at the time.

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer, one of the few people anywhere routinely polling over 60%, has decided to dole out more of his gigantic war chest to other Democrats rather than spending it on himself. (It may not be entirely altruistic, as he may still have a Majority Leader battle in mind if Harry Reid can’t pull it out.) In recent weeks, he gave an additional $1 million (on top of a previous $2 mil) to the DSCC. He’s also given widely to state parties, including $250K in both New York and Nevada, as well as smaller amounts in 11 other states.

• PA-Sen: Before you get too excited about the major shift in polling in the Pennsylvania Senate race, absentee ballot numbers out of the Keystone State should be considered a dash of cold water. Of the 127,000 absentee ballots requested, Republicans have requested 50% and Dems have requested 42%, and also returning them at a faster clip. (I’m sure you could parse that by saying that Republican voters are likely to be older and thus less likely to want to vote in person, but either way it’s not an encouraging figure.)

• WV-Sen: Rush Limbaugh’s endorsement of John Raese last week — apparently predicated on the fact that they have lockers near each other at an expensive private country club in Palm Beach, Florida — may have done more damage to Raese beyond the obvious problem of making him look like a rich, entitled carpetbagger. After a little digging, it turns out that the Everglades Club is an all-white affair. Although it doesn’t have specific membership requirements, it’s never had a black member, and only one Jewish member. (In fact, remember that membership in this club was considered one of the disqualifying factors when Limbaugh was making noises about buying the St. Louis Rams several years back.)

• CO-Gov: Credit Dan Maes for entrepreneurial spirit: when he needed a job, he created one for himself… running for Governor. In the last year, Maes’ campaign has reimbursed his family $72K. That’s actually his campaign’s second-biggest expense, and nearly one-third of the paltry $304K he’s raised all along. Maes says much of that money was “mileage,” though.

• OR-Gov: Here’s something that we’ve been seeing almost nothing of this cycle, even though we saw a lot of it in 2008 (especially in Oregon, with Gordon Smith): kissing up to Barack Obama. But that’s what Chris Dudley did in an open letter published as a print ad in the Oregonian this week, saying that while they might have their differences he’ll work together with him on educational issues (one area where Dudley’s been making some Democratic-sounding promises, albeit without any discussion of how to do that and pay for his tax cuts at the same time). With Barack Obama more popular in Oregon than much of the nation, and about to host a large rally with John Kitzhaber, the timing is not surprising.

• MA-04: I don’t know if Barney Frank knows something that his own internals aren’t telling us, or if he just believes in not leaving anything to chance, but he’s lending himself $200K out of his own wallet to fund the stretch run in his mildly-interesting House race.

• MA-10: The illegal strip search issue (where Jeff Perry, then a police sergeant, failed to stop an underling from strip searching two teenage girls) is back in the media spotlight in a big way today, with one of the victims ending her silence and speaking to the press. Perry has defended himself saying it wasn’t “in my presence,” but she says he was a whole 15 feet away, and that he tried to cover up the incident.

• NJ-03: It seems like every day the honor of dumbest person running for office changes, and today the fickle finger seems to be pointing at Jon Runyan. When asked in a debate what Supreme Court case of the last 10 or 15 years he disagrees with, Runyan’s answer was Dred Scott. As TPM’s David Kurtz says, given the crop of GOPers this year, maybe we should just be grateful that he disagrees with Dred Scott.

• VA-05: If Tom Perriello loses this cycle, he’s one guy who can walk out with his head held high:

In return, Hurt asked Perriello if he was willing to admit his votes on stimulus funding, health care and energy were mistakes.

Perriello stood behind his votes and the positive impact he says they have had or will have on the district….

“Leadership is about making tough decisions,” he said.

• IA-St. House: The Iowa state House is one of the most hotly contested (and likeliest to flip to the GOP) chambers in the nation this cycle, and here’s a Des Moines Register analysis of the 23 biggest races to watch in that chamber. (Bear in mind, though, that although Iowa is on track to lose a House seat, it uses independent commission redistricting, so the state legislature is not pivotal in that aspect.)

• DNC: The DNC somehow raised $11.1 million in the first 13 days of October, putting them on track for one of their best months ever for a midterm election. Wondering what’s happening with that money? The DNC is out with a new TV ad of their own, saying don’t go back to failed Republican policies and decrying the flow of outside money into this election. I have no idea where it’s running, but the non-specificness of the pitch leaves me wondering if it’ll run in nationwide contexts. (The DNC is also running $3 million in radio ads on nationally syndicated programs, particularly targeted to black audiences.)

• Independent expenditures:

• America’s Families First Action Fund (all anti-GOP buys): ND-AL, FL-02, WI-08, VA-05, AZ-07, WI-07

• NRSC (variety of buys, including Alaska)

• AFSCME (all anti-GOP, naturally): OH-16, MI-07, CO-Sen, PA-03

• Hospital PAC (multiple buys, all pro-GOP)

• First Amendment Alliance (anti-Joe Manchin)

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Someone called WFUPAC (funded by SEIU and AFT) hits Mark Kirk for being buddy-buddy with George W. Bush in the bad ol’ days

• NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte’s out with a boilerplate litany of everything Dems have done wrong

• WV-Sen: The NRSC returns to the “Manchin’s a good governor, keep him here, and send a message to Obama” theme

• MN-01: The DCCC has to push the playing field boundaries a little further with their first ad in the 1st, hitting Randy Demmer on Social Security privatization

• NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster has two different ads out, both on outsourcing and job creation, one hitting Charlie Bass and one positive

• PA-03: Here’s that AFSCME ad (see above for the IE) hitting Mike Kelly

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi says Washington hasn’t been listening to you

• WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s fourth ad touts her as “smart moderate” and wields her Seattle Times endorsement

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 50%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 43%, Charlie Crist (I) 32%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 43%, John Raese (R) 50%

• IL-Sen: Serial exaggerator Mark Kirk has a new one on his hands: he was previously claiming that he was the driving force behind a bill that cracked down on companies that do business with Iran (but that got turned into a Howard Berman bill so it could pass the Democratic House, says Kirk). Berman says that’s not the case at all, and that his committee didn’t even consider the Kirk version of the bill.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle had possibly the weirdest ever visit to a group of Latino high school students, first telling them that those weren’t supposed to be Latinos in her ad featuring scary-looking dark-skinned persons crossing the border. Maybe those are actually Arabs, and maybe they’re crossing the Canadian border, she mused? She then turned the tables back on the students, saying that “I don’t know that all of you are Latino. Some of you look a little more Asian to me.” Asian like… Middle Eastern terrorists, maybe? With Sharron Angle speaking, who even knows?

• IL-Gov: Whitey no more? Green Party candidate “Rich Whitey” will apparently get ballots in select Chicago wards changed back to his actual (and preferred) name, Rich Whitney. Apparently there was enough time to reprogram all the machines if crews work overtime.

• SC-Gov: I’m not sure whose side to take here: on the one hand, it’s good to see the DNC putting money into the late-breaking South Carolina governor’s race, where internals see it as a mid-single-digits race and a real opportunity now. On the other hand, South Carolina Dems just sound pissed, saying the $100K expenditure is too little too late (which is probably true).

• CA-03: Here’s an eye-catching independent expenditure: American Crossroads (aka Rove, Inc.) is pouring $682K into a TV buy against Ami Bera in the 3rd. That would tend to support the idea that Dan Lungren, who’s lost the fundraising game to Bera every quarter, is also putting up some middling internals too.

• PA-07: Now this isn’t good, especially this late in the game: the Pennsylvania state Teamsters suddenly revoked their endorsement of Bryan Lentz. There’s no official word on what caused the rift, but it seems to relate back to Lentz’s sponsorship of a bill that cracks down on construction firms that misclassify workers to avoid paying taxes.

• OH-St. House: The Cleveland Plain Dealer has a good profile of 10 of the most important races in one of our most important legislative chambers, where Dems have a small edge (53-46) and need to hold it for redistricting purposes. It’s a mix of suburban Cleveland, suburban Columbus, and the rural southern part of the state.

• AFL-CIO: Here’s an interesting memo out from the AFL-CIO’s political director today suggesting that they’ve made a lot of under-the-radar progress in the last few weeks, redirecting members who weren’t engaged or were flirting with the Republicans. In particular, Pennsylvania stands out, where they’re finding that Joe Sestak now has a 55-26 lead among union members, up from only 45-39 at the start of September. They also point out that Joe Manchin now has a 40-point lead among union members in another union-heavy state, West Virginia.

• Early voting: Early voting gets underway today in Florida and Texas, along with five other smaller states. Adding in the states where voting has already started, that means the election is truly afoot in nearly half of all states.

• Debates: We’re adding a new component to our digests: courtesy of our friends at C-SPAN, a list of all the debates that are on tap and on the air each night on C-SPAN. Because if you’re reading this, we know you can’t get enough politicking:

8 pm ET: WV-Sen

9 pm ET: WI-07

10 pm ET: IL-11

11 pm ET : AZ-05

• SSP TV:

• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski may be the only Republican running a pro-pork campaign, with her new ad talking about how Joe Miller will cut off the flow of federal funds to Alaska

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet hits Ken Buck on Social Security privatization and his hardcore pro-life positions

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway moves quickly along from the ‘Aqua Buddha’ ad, turning the conversation back to mine safety, while Rand Paul continues to whine about it, spending an ad touting his Christian faith

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt tries out a little Medicare sleight-of-hand (the whole HCR-cut-Medicare!!1! line)

• NH-Gov: The DGA, via local group Citizens for Strength and Security, hits John Stephen for retaining his campaign manager even after he received a restraining order for stalking

• NRCC: If you’ve ever wanted to watch 40+ Republican House ads in one sitting, here’s your chance

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 39%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 52%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%, Ken Buck (R) 47%

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 45%

• HI-Sen: Dan Inouye (D-inc) 53%, Cam Cavasso (R) 40%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 47%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 50%

• UT-Gov: Peter Corroon (D) 29%, Gary Herbert (R-inc) 66%

• UT-Sen: Sam Granato (D) 29%, Mike Lee (R) 54%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 46%

If I were a rich man…. Here are the August fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (July numbers are here):

• DE-Sen: Despite all the hullabaloo about the late-breaking surge by Christine O’Donnell (which, if you look at fundraising and ad spending, seems like it might not have been that much of a surge at all), both parties seem to be reconciled to a Chris Coons/Mike Castle race, according to CQ. O’Donnell seems to be hanging her hopes on a last-minute Sarah Palin endorsement, which, according to intense semantic analysis by Twitterologists, didn’t really happen with her recent retweety-hashtaggy thing.

• HI-Gov: Hawaii’s the last primary in the nation, and that also means it’s the last for pre-primary financial reporting. Neil Abercrombie, who’d been lagging Mufi Hannemann on the fundraising front previously, shot ahead for the months of July and August. Abercrombie raised $768K while Hannemann raised $330K. Hannemann still has the CoH edge, $792K to $275K.

• NM-Gov: GOPer Susana Martinez has led narrowly in most polls here, but the RGA isn’t taking this race for granted: they’re moving $500K to the Martinez campaign. The DGA is also continuing to fight here, and they seem to think they have something here with their own little Bonusgate story here (where Martinez allegedly spent border security money on staff bonuses instead); they’re running their second attack ad here, and it (like the first ad) focuses on the bonuses.

• RI-Gov: There had been rumors of this way, way back, but the RNC is revisiting them today, saying that Democratic candidate Frank Caprio talked to them about a possible party switch in February (back when he was still facing the more-liberal Patrick Lynch in the Dem primary). It’s unclear what the GOP’s angle is in releasing this now… their chances are pretty much DOA, so are they just hoping to deny the DGA a victory here (for post-election talking points purposes) by driving Caprio votes to Lincoln Chafee (the indie who seems to be running, for the most part, to Caprio’s left)?

• VT-Gov: The recount has begun for the ultra-close Democratic primary in the Vermont gubernatorial race, but instead of lobbing grenades at each other, 197-vote leader Peter Shumlin and runner-up Doug Racine are touring the state together in an RV, stumping along with the other three candidates. In fact, Racine is urging his donors to get behind Shumlin, despite having requested the recount. (So far, Shumlin’s lead has edged up by 9, with 10 of the state’s 14 counties having completed the recanvass.)

• WI-Gov: Here’s a good development, that a lot of other outgoing Dem incumbents might take a lesson from: Jim Doyle, with $1.8 million sitting around in his campaign funds as he ends his gubernatorial run, is transferring $1 million of that money to the Greater Wisconsin Committee, which has aired both anti-Scott Walker and anti-Mark Neumann ads.

• CT-05: Here’s one House GOP internal that’s getting a little stale, but somehow eluded us until just now: Sam Caligiuri put out a late-August internal from National Research showing him right on Chris Murphy’s heels, trailing 40-39.

• Committees: Jim Doyle’s not the only guy with money to burn who’s emptying out the piggy banks. Barack Obama will be transferring $4.5 million from his campaign fund, divvying it up three ways with $1.5 million each to the DCCC, DSCC, and DNC.

• Mayors (pdf): Two mayoral polls are out today. One is more timely, with the DC primary only days away: Clarus finds Vincent Gray ready to oust incumbent Adrian Fenty in the Dem primary, 45-38. We Ask America also pounces on the Chicago mayor question, despite a thoroughly unclear field, and finds Rahm Emanuel would be starting in the pole position out of 10 names they gave. Emanuel’s at 30, followed by Tom Dart at 14, and both Luis Gutierrez and Jesse Jackson Jr. at 13.

• Massachusetts: Here’s an interesting set of numbers out of the Bay State: despite the election of Scott Brown and running a competitive gubernatorial race, Republicans have actually lost ground lately in terms of registration. The GOP has lost more than 9,000 voters over the last two years, and are down to 11% of all registrations. Dems held almost even at 37%, while the ranks of the unenrolled grew (by 187K since 2006), up to 51% of the electorate.

• SSP TV:

• IN-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce is out with an anti-Brad Ellsworth ad hitting the usual “trillions of government spending” points

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin’s first TV ad attacks John Raese for running attack ads

• OH-Gov: The SEIU attacks John Kasich on his Wall Street days, with a “significant six-figure” buy

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato’s first TV ad of the general is a 60-second extravaganza focusing on the revitalization of Pittsburgh

• IL-14: Randy Hultgren talks jobs

• MI-01: Gary McDowell’s first ad has testimonials from locals saying he’s just like them, only “better dressed”

• OH-18: Americans for Job Security is out with four anti-Dem House ads, in IN-08, PA-04, and PA-07 as well as the 18th… and we have actual numbers ($124K in OH-18, $415K in PA-04, $293 in PA-07, and $318K in IN-08)

• SC-05: John Spratt’s first TV ad of the cycle focuses, unsurprisingly, on his constituent service reputation and attention to local issues

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 37%, John McCain (R-inc) 51%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 34%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%, LeAlan Jones (G) 12%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 53%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 45%

Someday I’ll have me a penthouse, stacks and stacks of folding green… Here are the July fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (June numbers are here):

CO-Sen: An unknown group called New Leadership Colorado hired Zata|3 to take a poll of the Dem primary, and survey says that Sen. Michael Bennet has a slim 44-40 lead over upstart Andrew Romanoff. As Colorado Pols points out, even though NLC claims to have no relationship with either campaign, the group’s interests must lie with Romanoff – because no one affiliated with Bennet would want to release a poll that makes him look so vulnerable. Colorado Pols also observes that Zata|3, until this cycle, was not known as a pollster but rather as a firm that does robocalls and direct mail – and wonders why they’ve been tapped to do actual surveys.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is refusing to say whether he’d back gajillionaire asshole Jeff Greene should Greene win the Democratic primary. (According to Politico, Greene has “signaled he would support Meek.”) Politically speaking, if Meek crashes and burns, I wonder if he’d be better off endorsing Charlie Crist. After all, Crist is about a hundred (at least) times more likely to win the general than Greene, and since it seems he’d have to caucus with the Dems, backing him could earn Meek a chit or two down the line.

MO-Sen: A bunch of teabaggers are complaining that Michele Bachmann is coming to town to stump for her House colleague Roy Blunt – and not Chuck Purgason, the state senator who has failed to gain any traction in his primary bid. When Bachmann, the recent founder of the House Tea Party Caucus, isn’t passing purity tests, you know your movement has reached “Judean People’s Front” levels of absurdity.

NH-Sen: UNH, polling for WMUR, has AG Kelly Ayotte beating Dem Rep. Paul Hodes 45-37. That’s actually an improvement for Hodes from April’s 47-32 margin.

CO-Gov: The Denver Post has a helpful look at the American Constitution Party, the right-wing lunatic party whose line Tom Tancredo plans to run on for governor. Among other planks of their platform: repeal of the 17th amendment, repeal of the Endangered Species Act, and repeal of the Voting Rights Act. Sounds like they have a lot in common with the Republicans – they’re both the party of no!

IL-Gov, IL-10: Capitol Fax busts two Republicans for engaging in shady Internet-related shenanigans. First up, someone claiming to be with Bill Brady’s gubernatorial decided to vandalize Brady’s Wikipedia page, turning it into a campaign press release, more or less. Of course, the encyclopedia’s trusty editors quickly reverted these ridiculous edits – which only led to a revision war, as Brady’s stupid minions kept trying to push their nonsense. The page is now locked. As Capitol Fax reiterates, all this shit is permanent. As in, you get to look like an idiot forever.

Meanwhile, in suburban Chicago, GOPer Bob Dold’s campaign doesn’t seem to understand this lesson. He put up an item on his Facebook page the other day saying he supports Rep. Paul Ryan’s “Roadmap for America’s Future” – you know, the economic “plan” which calls for destroying Medicare and Social Security, among other things. After Dan Seals lacerated Dold’s punk ass for this, Dold took the post down. But the enterprising ArchPundit was smart enough to grab a screen capture while the post was still live. Explaining the deletion, a Dold hack said, “It’s Facebook. We put things up and take things down all the time.” Um, no – you don’t actually get to do that. Trust me on this one – I’m from the Internet.

TN-Gov: Dem gubernatorial candidate Mike McWherter is up on the air with his first ad, a positive bio-ish spot. NWOTSOTB, of course.

NC-07: Barf: Kelsey Grammer, that rare breed of Hollywood Republican, is coming to North Carolina to do fundraisers for GOPer Ilario Pantano, who is running against Rep. Mike McIntyre. Pantano, as you probably know, is best known for emptying two magazines from his M-16 into two Iraqi prisoners, killing them both, because he wanted to “send a message.”

NY-15: We’ll probably stop following this whip count soon, but anyhow, freshman Dem Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is now the third House incumbent to call on Charlie Rangel to resign. If the floodgates do open up on this, any latecomers to the bandwagon will see diminishing returns on their calls for resignation.

PA-06: Yesterday, we mentioned a Jim Gerlach internal which had him up 54-29 over Manan Trivedi. Well, the team down at the SSP Records & Storage went dumpster diving through our deep archive to dig up an old Gerlach internal from September of 2008. That survey showed him up 57-28 over Some Dude Bob Roggio. (SSPR&S believes that this might have actually been the very first “Some Dude” reference on SSP.) You will recall that Gerlach beat Roggio by just 52-48.

TN-06: That’s interesting: Veteran Brett Carter launched a TV ad touting his military experience. Then veteran Ben Leming launched a TV ad, touting his military experience. What’s interesting is that both of these guys are running in the Democratic primary – in a seat largely written off by national Dems. NWOTSOTB for either candidate, but both men have limited cash-on-hand (Carter $100K, Leming $35K).

DNC: The DNC just transferred $2.5 million to a number of sister organizations, including the DSCC, DCCC and three marquee gubernatorial campaigns (FL, MD and PA). Click the link for the complete breakdowns.

There’s a tuppeny hapenny millionaire – looking for a fourpenny one. Here are the June fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (May numbers are here):

Just a quick note on the Dem vs. GOP cash disparities: In March, it was $21.5 mil, then $18.6 mil, then $18.0 mil, and now it’s down to $16.1 mil $18.1 mil.

UPDATE: I made a mistake and misreported the cash-on-hand totals for both the DSCC and NRSC. Both sets of numbers were in fact higher than I reported, the DSCC moreso than the NRSC, meaning the Dems added more net cash overall.

A penny saved is a penny earned. Here are the May fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (April numbers are here):

For the first time this cycle (and for a very long time before that as well), the NRSC now has more money in the bank than the DSCC does. And the RNC is very close behind the DNC.