SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Afternoon Edition)

• AK-Sen: Where even to start in Alaska? With vague reports of Joe Miller in “free fall” in private polling, both the NRSC and his own personal kingmaker, Jim DeMint, are having to step in with advertising in order to back him up. The NRSC’s buy is for $162K, which I’m sure they’d rather spend putting out fires in Pennsylvania and Kentucky instead of on a should-have-been-sure-thing… and the ad (which focuses on Barack Obama, not Lisa Murkowski or Scott McAdams) can be seen here. DeMint’s ad is for $100K and touts Miller’s pro-life credentials.

Meanwhile, the drip-drip of unsavory stuff from Miller’s past keeps coming. It turns out he worked for one of Alaska’s top law firms after graduating from Yale, prior to sliding down the food chain to working for the borough of Fairbanks; while they wouldn’t elaborate because of personnel policies, a firm partner said they were “not eager” to have him stay on and “relieved” when he left after three years. Also, a CPA with commercial property knowledge should double-check a look at this story before we start alleging wrongdoing, but it’s an interesting catch: Miller may have been paying himself ridiculously-above-market rents on the law office he owned, in order to game his taxes. And finally, with the damage already done, it looks like no charges will be filed in the “irrational blogger” handcuffing incident, either against Tony Hopfinger or Miller’s hired goons.

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway succeeded in getting an NRSC ad pulled from a local TV station, seeing as how the whole premise was based on a lie (that Conway has supported cap-and-trade). WHAS-TV pulled the ad after the NRSC was unable to provide convincing sources for the alleged quotes.

• MO-Sen: This might be too little too late, but Roy Blunt is the third Republican candidate in the last month to get a bad case of housekeeper-itis. State Democrats released documents yesterday showing that in 1990 Blunt hired an “illegal worker” and then tried to expedite the citizenship process for her. Blunt’s campaign says she never worked directly for them, only for some church events, but the documents say she had “done some work” for Blunt’s wife at the time.

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer, one of the few people anywhere routinely polling over 60%, has decided to dole out more of his gigantic war chest to other Democrats rather than spending it on himself. (It may not be entirely altruistic, as he may still have a Majority Leader battle in mind if Harry Reid can’t pull it out.) In recent weeks, he gave an additional $1 million (on top of a previous $2 mil) to the DSCC. He’s also given widely to state parties, including $250K in both New York and Nevada, as well as smaller amounts in 11 other states.

• PA-Sen: Before you get too excited about the major shift in polling in the Pennsylvania Senate race, absentee ballot numbers out of the Keystone State should be considered a dash of cold water. Of the 127,000 absentee ballots requested, Republicans have requested 50% and Dems have requested 42%, and also returning them at a faster clip. (I’m sure you could parse that by saying that Republican voters are likely to be older and thus less likely to want to vote in person, but either way it’s not an encouraging figure.)

• WV-Sen: Rush Limbaugh’s endorsement of John Raese last week — apparently predicated on the fact that they have lockers near each other at an expensive private country club in Palm Beach, Florida — may have done more damage to Raese beyond the obvious problem of making him look like a rich, entitled carpetbagger. After a little digging, it turns out that the Everglades Club is an all-white affair. Although it doesn’t have specific membership requirements, it’s never had a black member, and only one Jewish member. (In fact, remember that membership in this club was considered one of the disqualifying factors when Limbaugh was making noises about buying the St. Louis Rams several years back.)

• CO-Gov: Credit Dan Maes for entrepreneurial spirit: when he needed a job, he created one for himself… running for Governor. In the last year, Maes’ campaign has reimbursed his family $72K. That’s actually his campaign’s second-biggest expense, and nearly one-third of the paltry $304K he’s raised all along. Maes says much of that money was “mileage,” though.

• OR-Gov: Here’s something that we’ve been seeing almost nothing of this cycle, even though we saw a lot of it in 2008 (especially in Oregon, with Gordon Smith): kissing up to Barack Obama. But that’s what Chris Dudley did in an open letter published as a print ad in the Oregonian this week, saying that while they might have their differences he’ll work together with him on educational issues (one area where Dudley’s been making some Democratic-sounding promises, albeit without any discussion of how to do that and pay for his tax cuts at the same time). With Barack Obama more popular in Oregon than much of the nation, and about to host a large rally with John Kitzhaber, the timing is not surprising.

• MA-04: I don’t know if Barney Frank knows something that his own internals aren’t telling us, or if he just believes in not leaving anything to chance, but he’s lending himself $200K out of his own wallet to fund the stretch run in his mildly-interesting House race.

• MA-10: The illegal strip search issue (where Jeff Perry, then a police sergeant, failed to stop an underling from strip searching two teenage girls) is back in the media spotlight in a big way today, with one of the victims ending her silence and speaking to the press. Perry has defended himself saying it wasn’t “in my presence,” but she says he was a whole 15 feet away, and that he tried to cover up the incident.

• NJ-03: It seems like every day the honor of dumbest person running for office changes, and today the fickle finger seems to be pointing at Jon Runyan. When asked in a debate what Supreme Court case of the last 10 or 15 years he disagrees with, Runyan’s answer was Dred Scott. As TPM’s David Kurtz says, given the crop of GOPers this year, maybe we should just be grateful that he disagrees with Dred Scott.

• VA-05: If Tom Perriello loses this cycle, he’s one guy who can walk out with his head held high:

In return, Hurt asked Perriello if he was willing to admit his votes on stimulus funding, health care and energy were mistakes.

Perriello stood behind his votes and the positive impact he says they have had or will have on the district….

“Leadership is about making tough decisions,” he said.

• IA-St. House: The Iowa state House is one of the most hotly contested (and likeliest to flip to the GOP) chambers in the nation this cycle, and here’s a Des Moines Register analysis of the 23 biggest races to watch in that chamber. (Bear in mind, though, that although Iowa is on track to lose a House seat, it uses independent commission redistricting, so the state legislature is not pivotal in that aspect.)

• DNC: The DNC somehow raised $11.1 million in the first 13 days of October, putting them on track for one of their best months ever for a midterm election. Wondering what’s happening with that money? The DNC is out with a new TV ad of their own, saying don’t go back to failed Republican policies and decrying the flow of outside money into this election. I have no idea where it’s running, but the non-specificness of the pitch leaves me wondering if it’ll run in nationwide contexts. (The DNC is also running $3 million in radio ads on nationally syndicated programs, particularly targeted to black audiences.)

• Independent expenditures:

• America’s Families First Action Fund (all anti-GOP buys): ND-AL, FL-02, WI-08, VA-05, AZ-07, WI-07

• NRSC (variety of buys, including Alaska)

• AFSCME (all anti-GOP, naturally): OH-16, MI-07, CO-Sen, PA-03

• Hospital PAC (multiple buys, all pro-GOP)

• First Amendment Alliance (anti-Joe Manchin)

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Someone called WFUPAC (funded by SEIU and AFT) hits Mark Kirk for being buddy-buddy with George W. Bush in the bad ol’ days

• NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte’s out with a boilerplate litany of everything Dems have done wrong

• WV-Sen: The NRSC returns to the “Manchin’s a good governor, keep him here, and send a message to Obama” theme

• MN-01: The DCCC has to push the playing field boundaries a little further with their first ad in the 1st, hitting Randy Demmer on Social Security privatization

• NH-02: Ann McLane Kuster has two different ads out, both on outsourcing and job creation, one hitting Charlie Bass and one positive

• PA-03: Here’s that AFSCME ad (see above for the IE) hitting Mike Kelly

• PA-06: Manan Trivedi says Washington hasn’t been listening to you

• WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s fourth ad touts her as “smart moderate” and wields her Seattle Times endorsement

• Rasmussen:

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 50%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 43%, Charlie Crist (I) 32%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 40%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 43%, John Raese (R) 50%

356 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/20 (Afternoon Edition)”

  2. seeing AK-Sen at the top every day.  It really puts a giant smile on my face.  He must have broken the SSP record now for most consecutive days in the Digest.

  3. With an increasing number of absentees and early voting, it’s going to be harder and harder to poll races–unless people start putting together poll composites including poll estimates at various points in time before election day and turnout estimates for how many people voted each day or week of early voting.

    That said, enjoy some more music!

  7. I think Missouri Senate could be closer than it seems. PPP recently released a poll which showed Carnahan down by only 5 points. The cross-tabs of the poll are a bit counter-intuitive showing Blunt leading 46-38 among 18-29’s, 43-38 among 30-45’s, only 45-44 among 45-64’s, and 51-38 among seniors. It seems like they got a good sample of 45-64’s (44% of total sample) and seniors (26%).

    But they are showing a smaller (6%) and much more conservative (8 points Republican) youth vote than anyone would expect. If you put the youth vote where one would expect, Carnahan would be down by only 2 or 3.

    I’ve seen this problem with a lot of polls (especially Survey USA). Most young people don’t have home phones, and those who do are probably more rural and well-off and therefore more conservative.

    I want to email Nate Silver asking him to address this issue, and I  would encourage you guys to do the same. His models are based on historical performance, but if a poll shows unbelievable cross-tabs, I think that should be accounted for in the model.

    http://www.publicpolicypolling…

  8. Scary wake up call.  I’m obviously gonna take it in and get it fixed immediately, but it’s scary to even contemplate this thing having gone out on Tuesday, November 2, rather than Tuesday, October 20.  Facing an election night with no computer to track the returns as they roll in would be a face worse than death.  Just a warning not to get caught flat-footed, Phil Hare-style!

  10. imagine if the Democrats lost in PA, CO and the other contested races but pulled out a victory in NC or MO. That one would leave people scratching their heads for weeks.

  12. Look like an improvement for Democrats.  The margin in Clark County of Dem votes over Rep votes is D+5,092, and in NV-03 it is now D+1,030.  Ralston has mentioned that as a percentage of registered voters, Republicans are outperforming Democrats, but the raw numbers here show a D lead regardless, assuming trends hold and they don’t get clobbered on election day.

  13. Would anyone here like to semi-match a contribution? I have proposed the following six races as swing districts in which we can either put the Republicans on defense, pick up a seat, or defend a seat currently held by a Democrat:

    Kuster (NH-02)

    Garcia (FL-25)

    DelBene (WA-08)

    Hanabusa (HA-01)

    Shea-Porter (NH-01)

    Perriello (VA-05)

    If someone would agree to semi-match my contributions, I would contribute $15 each to the first three candidates on the list and you would contribute $15 each to the last three candidates. Otherwise, I will need to make smaller contributions or cut down my list.  

  19. Absolutely revolting and then he has the audacity to have his boss say what a super cop he has been.  Ethically challenged cops whose jobs to enforce the law, not abuse, should not be rewarded the powers of democracy.

  20. in order of size: PA-SEN, CO-SEN, NV-SEN, IL-SEN, WV-SEN, WA-SEN, KY-SEN, CT-SEN

    all were pretty large, with PA being over a million and CT being $490K

  21.    Is it really fair to say absentee balloting in Pennsylvania says anything (or maybe only a little) about excitement?  You have to have a valid excuse to fill out an absentee ballot in Pennsylvania.  You have to be out of the jurisdiction on election day or be physically incapacitated.  This is not like Nevada.  Anyway, I am one of the Democrats who has already returned his absentee ballot (voted on September 30!).

  22. please vote for VT in PPP’s poll of who to poll next.  there have been 2 post primary polls on the governor’s race and little is known right now.  If you’ve already voted for say, maine, or New Hampshire, consider changing the vote as they are so far ahead they will almost certainly win.  thank you for your time and thanks to everyone who voted for Vermont.

  23. I mean, it could be worse.  He could have said that a Supreme Court decision from the last 10 or 15 years that he disagreed with was Brown v. Board of Education.

  24. I don’t know if you can call it one of the likeliest chambers to flip in the country. I would say it’s a tossup–Republicans need a net gain of seven seats, but Democrats have three solid pickup opportunities, so Republicans probably need 8-10 pickups to get a majority in the chamber. They could do it, but I wouldn’t call it more than a 50/50 proposition.

  25. wants FEC investigation of McMahon/WWE campaign coordination:

    State Democratic Chairwoman Nancy DiNardo is calling on the Federal Election Commission to investigate whether World Wrestling Entertainment’s new PR campaign constitutes illegal coordination between the company and the U.S. Senate campaign of its former CEO, Linda McMahon.

    http://blogs.courant.com/capit…

    The full letter appears at MLN:

    There are at least three major examples of possible improper coordination between Mrs. McMahon and WWE. These include WWE’s new political campaign and ‘rapid-response’ news operation on behalf of Linda McMahon’s Senate campaign, WWE’s scheduling of the first-ever “Fan Appreciation Day” the Saturday before Election Day in Hartford, and WWE’s potential interference with voting on election night in Bridgeport.

    http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/di…

  26. EPIC-MRA Polls: Rep. Schauer (D) +6 in MI-7, Rep. Peters (D) +5 in MI-9. GOP Polls: Rep. Hinchey (D) tied in NY-22, anyway you interpret this, Hinchey is some serious trouble, MO-4: Rep. Skelton (D) tied with Hartzler (R), but poll wasn’t done for Hartzler’s campaign though. Cook moved MO-4 to Toss Up today, NY-22 to Lean D.

  28. Mostly because she’d be bad for gaming. Still, this could be big.

    Former Republican National Committee Chairman Frank Fahrenkopf Jr. has endorsed Democratic Sen. Harry Reid, saying it would be a mistake for Nevadans to elect Republican Sharron Angle and lose Reid’s clout to protect the state’s lifeblood gambling industry.

    Fahrenkopf, president of the American Gaming Association, suggested Angle should distance herself from the anti-gambling Campaign for Working Families, which has endorsed her and begun running television advertisements attacking Reid.

    http://www.rgj.com/article/201…

  29. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Frank Fahrenkopf Jr.

    Fahrenkopf, president of the American Gaming Association, suggested Angle should distance herself from the anti-gambling Campaign for Working Families, which has endorsed her and begun running television advertisements attacking Reid.

    “It’s disturbing that she (Angle) is taking money from people who oppose gambling,” Fahrenkopf told The Associated Press. “She may not even know it, but Gary Bauer has been a longtime, outspoken opponent of legalized gambling. I did a double-take when I read she was re ceiving assistance from someone who has opposed Nevada’s chief industry for so long.”

    http://www.rgj.com/article/201…

  31. With border security being a big issue this cycle, I looked up all the districts that border either Canada or Mexico and was surprised by the results. There are 22 districts that share a land (not lake) border with Canada (12) or Mexico (10)–can anyone guess the partisan split? (No cheating!)

  34. After about two days of early voting:

    “The Colorado Secretary of State reports that about 195,000 voters have already cast ballots as of Wednesday afternoon. That figure includes mail-in and absentee voters who have already returned ballots, along with people who have voted in person at early balloting locations.

    So far, just over 71,000 Democrats have voted, and about 81,500 Republicans have voted. About 41,000 unaffiliated voters have already cast ballots. The GOP has an advantage in the overall number of active voters, with almost 63,000 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats.”

    http://www.denverpost.com/poli…

    not great numbers, but I don’t know anything about early voting patterns in CO in past cycles.

    breakdown right now is: 41.8 R, 36.4 D, 21.0 I.

    PPP had Bennet +1 with a party breakdown of 37R/36D/27I.  So if these voting trends are predictive, I’d say right now Buck has somewhat of an advantage, unless Independents are breaking now more strongly Bennet than PPP found.

  35. Good news for Dan Seals assuming Cook’s move is justified.  Cook had IL-10 at tossup all cycle until today.  I know there was a “We Ask America” poll earlier this week that had Dold up 50-39, and we were all scratching our heads, or shitting bricks, or both.  But Cook obviously thinks the best information on the race supports that Seals just about has this one.

    Of our top 4 pickup opportunities, only the Djou seat remains a tossup.  The other 3 are lean Dem.

    Oh, and more good news, Cook’s lean GOP list now includes AZ-03, Hulbard vs. Quayle.  I think that’s a new move, I didn’t think that was in the lean column before.  The other lean GOP seats Cook rates as having a chance at a Dem takeover are CA-03 (Bera vs. Lungren) and FL-25 (Garcia vs. Rivera), both not new.  FL-12, Putnam’s open seat, is on there, which might be new as I don’t remember it on the “lean” list before.  Charlie Dent’s seat is still just a “lean,” validating Adam Bonin’s contention earlier today; Callahan is still in it.

    The biggest disappointment, to my surprise, is that KS-04 is rated “safe” Republican, not even on the “likely R” list.  Cook thinks Goyle is toast.

  39. Arizona, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Wisconsin

    Select whatever…however, there’s really no reason to poll Louisiana or New Mexico. (Jensen is not doing House races even in small states)

  40. Already posted above, I guess.  But MI-7 and MI-9 are surging for Democrats, both had been before today’s poll, in fact.  The last poll in MI-1 also shows the momentum on the Dems side.

    Bernero is dead in the water.  He’s been consistently behind 20%.  That said, the Big Dawg will be hear on Sunday stomping for Schauer, and Dingell and Bernero, nonetheless.  That should lock up the House seats, and perhaps bring Bernero’s loss ratio down.  I’m a bit confused why he’d be in Detroit and not visit Peters, but, meh.

    http://www.freep.com/article/2…

    Former President Bill Clinton will visit Detroit and two other Michigan cities on Sunday to campaign for three Democratic candidates – gubernatorial hopeful Virg Bernero and U.S. Reps. John Dingell and Mark Schauer, Democratic Party sources confirmed.

    Clinton’s afternoon swing will begin early afternoon in Detroit to rally for Bernero, the Lansing mayor who’s been badly trailing Republican rival Rick Snyder, according to recent polls.

    Clinton will then stump for Dingell in Ann Arbor and head to Battle Creek to appear with Schauer. Both Dingell – the longest-serving member of the U.S. House – and Schauer face tough challenges from Republican opponents.

    BTW, Dingell isn’t nor has he ever been in trouble, and I’m getting really tired of that silly narrative.

  41. of going to GOP.

    He also tweeted two big new polls in PA and CA Senate races coming out tomorrow. Any ideas on who is polling? Field in California would be the big one there. Who is the polling expert in PA?

  46. Hamilton County, which is split in half between OH-01 and OH-02, had some early vote numbers reported 15,560 Rep, 14,421 Dem, 9,335 Ind.

    In 2006, the early vote in OH-01 was 4.5% more Republican than the final tally.  The early vote in OH-02 was about 1% more Republican than the final tally.  The early vote returns in Hamilton County were 2/3 for OH-01 and 1/3 for OH-02.  In 2008, however, the early vote was significantly more Democratic than the final tally.

    Overall the numbers aren’t too bad if things played out similar to 2006.  Not that I expect Driehaus to pull this out, but he might not be in as bad of shape as we think, and it might have some clues for other races in Ohio.

  48. Wednesday, Oct. 20:

    4952 total voters

    2220 (or 44.8%) were Republicans

    2044 (or 41.2%) were Democrats

    688 (or 14%) were neither

    For a grand total, after five days of early voting…

    21154 total voters

    9892 (or 46.8%) Republicans

    8436 (or 39.9%) Democrats

  51. But I was just watching a Youtube video, and a Carly Fiorina ad came up!

    It’s quite exciting to actually see political ads in California for once.

  52. Team Red

    AK-SEN: $295K from Club for Growth

    AK-SEN: $150K from NRSC

    NV-SEN: $545K from Crossroads GPS

    NV-SEN: $594K from Ending Spending Fund

    WA-SEN: $455K from Crossroads GPS

    WA-SEN: $112K from NRSC

    WI-SEN: $405K from American Action Network

    TX-17: $164K from American Crossroads

    Team Blue

    CA-SEN: $879K from Women Vote!

    IL-SEN: $542K from Working for Us PAC

    MO-SEN: $154K from Commonsense Ten

    NV-SEN: $419K from Patriot Majority PAC

    NV-SEN: $305K from AFSCME/AFL-CIO

    WA-SEN: $317K from Commonsense Ten

    WV-SEN: $217K from Commonsense Ten

    IL-17: $349K from America’s Families First

    IN-09: $178K from SEIU COPE

    NH-02: $400K from America’s Families First

    VA-05: $285K from NEA

    VA-05: $155K from League of Conservation Voters

    WV-03: $188K from United Mine Workers

    plus the DSCC buys mentioned upthread

  54. Man, Walberg was pretty roundly stomped in the debate, last night.  Schauer was off his game in last weeks debate, but this week, Walberg was on the defense during the ENTIRE debate with the crowd behind Schauer, to boot.

    Immediately after the debate, the channel has been nothing but Schauer ads (I saw two Walberg ads).  I’m feeling the momentum on the ground, too, that was missing for awhile.  Schauer has the superior ground game simply for the fact that he served as an assistant floor leader in the state house, floor leader in the state senate, and ultimately the state senate minority leader until 2008.

  57. Election Day is already over for more than 3 million Americans, and a surprising number of them are Democrats.

    Republicans clearly are gaining ground in turning out early voters compared with their showing two years ago, but figures from the first batch of states that offer clues about 2010 early voting patterns still give Democrats an edge in a number of states and big counties.

    “If people thought the Democrats were just going to roll over and play dead in this election, that’s not what we’re seeing,” said Michael McDonald, a George Mason University professor who tracks early voting nationally. “They’ve got to be feeling a little bit better with the numbers that they’re seeing.”

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories…

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