I have decided to take a stab at predicting the totals of Congressional seats lost this cycle. I am going to put my formulas that I list below into the expert’s predictions to find the outcome of the upcoming election.
As noted these are pessimistic. Consider this a worst case scenario. I myself have been saying for a while now to expect a loss in the mid fifties. Feel free to tweak the model a bit, it is not hard at all.
This is my formula for calculating Democratic seats. I see anything under tossup going to team red, most tossups breaking away from us, a significant number of lean seats and even a couple of safe members. Feel free to tell me what you think should be switched around on these. Personally I debated lowering the leans a bit. My tossup formula may be a bit on the dark side as well.
100% Lean, Likely and safe R gone.
75% tossups are gone.
40% leans D are gone.
10% Likely D are gone.
0% Safe D are gone.
This is my formula for calculating Republican seats. They keep everything under tossup. They lose half their tossups and anything above it.
0% of Lean Likely or Safe gone
50% of Tossups are gone.
100% or Lean Likely or Safe are gone.
Here goes, I am no mathematician so please correct me if you see any errors. Many answer came out in decimals. I rounded up for .5 or higher and down for .4 and lower.
Swing State Project
Democrats
16 Lean or Likely R= 16
42 Tossups= 31.5 round to 32
32 Lean D= 12.8 round to 13
26 Likely D= 2.6 round to 3
=64 Seats Lost.
Republicans
3 Tossups= 1.5 round to 2
2 Lean D= 2
=4 seats lost.
Republicans Gain 60 seats.
Charlie Cook
Democrats
22 Lean or Likely R= 22
38 Tossups= 28.5 rounds to 29
30 Lean D= 12
25 Likely D= 2.5 rounds to 3
=66 seats lost
Republicans
2 Tossups= 1
2 Lean D= 2
=3 seats lost
Republicans gain 63 Seats.
Rothenberg
Note- So Rothenberg uses the tossup tilts method. Well I guess I should create a new formula but I will just clump all tossups together. Also I am counting R favored as Likely R.
Democrats
18 Lean or Likely R= 18
42 Tossups= 31.5 round to 32
16 Lean D= 6.4 round to 6
15 Likely D= 1.5 round to 2
= 58 seats lost
Republicans
4 Tossups= 2
2 Lean or Likely D= 2
= 4 Seat Loss
Republicans gain 54 seats.
CQ
Democrats
15 Lean Likely or Safe R = 15
37 Tossups= 27.75 round to 28
24 Lean D= 9.6 round to 10
24 Likely D= 2.4 round to 2
= 55 Seat Loss
Republicans
3 Tossups= 1.5 round to 2
2 Likely D= 2
= 4 Seat Loss
Republicans gain 51 seats.
Crystal Ball
Democrats
30 Lean or Likely R= 30
29 Tossups= 21.75 round to 22.
16 Lean D= 6.4 round to 6
24 Likely D= 2.4 round to 2
= 60 Seat Loss
Republicans
2 Tossups= 1
2 Lean D= 2
=3 Seat Loss
Republicans gain 57 seats.
Real Clear Politics
Democrats
39 Lean or Likely R= 39
39 Tossups= 29.25 round to 29
29 Lean D= 11.6 round to 12
26 Likely D= 2.6 round to 3
= 83 seat loss
Republicans
2 Tossups= 1
2 Lean D= 2
= 3 seat loss
Republicans gain 80 seats.
Real Clear Politics is by far the worst, I never like them. Averaging all of this data together Republicans gain 64 seats total. This is more than I expect but we will see. Here’s to me being wrong!
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Cook’s tossups broke about 50-50.
I’m drinking Mountain Dew tomorrow. Like, a gallon of it.
🙂
The GOP is going to have a difficult time defending so many Freshman Representatives in a Presidential election year when the Democratic base gets energized.