Hoosierdem’s VERY Early 2012 Senate Projections

It’s kind of foolish making predictions THIS early. But hey I have some spare time on my hands so I figured why not. This is very far out and a million things can and will change. But I want to go ahead and create some predictions for how I think things are going right now. This will be posted on Swing State Project and Red Racing Horses. Enjoy!  

Arizona- First I would like to say I’m a fully biased Gabby Giffords fan and was before her shooting. In fact the night before I was talking her up as the first female President on the Swing State Project and I fully believe she would have ran had she not been shot. With Kyl out it makes it slightly more competitive but I would not put money on it as Flake is a strong candidate whose main issue is probably getting through a Republican primary. I do wonder if his opposition to Arizona’s anti immigration law could make him vulnerable.

Flake-57

Goddard-43

2012 will be a better year for dems than 2010 so I slightly upped Goddard’s 2010 numbers but definitely took into account that he is facing a much better candidate than Brewer.  

Giffords-54

Flake-46

If and a BIG if Giffords fully recovers and is interested in the Senate then I really have trouble seeing her losing, even to Flake. She is a household name, America’s hero right now. With this I still recognize Flake’s strength and the R tilt of the state and make it slightly competitive. All of this being said I do not think she should be focusing on politics right now and we still do not even know if she will be able to return to Congress. So a Senate run is probably not likely.

Flake- 56

Napolitano-44

In the unlikely event that former Governor Napolitano decides to return to Arizona I seriously doubt she wins. She left unpopular and actually polled slightly worse than Goddard according to PPP. That said she is a former Governor and I’m sure she had some friends and could put together a decent operation. But I do not see her winning.

Hayworth- 49

Goddard- 51

Hayworth- 42

Giffords- 58

Hayworth- 48

Napolitano-52

In the very lucky (for dems) event that Hayworth somehow wins the Republican nomination I think we will win this seat. It will be close but I can’t see him winning. He trailed Glassman in hypothetical matchups in 2010 no way he would beat a serious candidate in a better year.

California-  I can’t see a Republican winning Cali unless a serious catastrophic scandal emerged. With Feinstein I think she gets above 60 without her I think dems win in the mid to high fifties.

Feinstein- 58

Whitman-42

Feinstein- 58

Issa- 42

Feinstein-62

Generic R- 38

I fully expect the third option to be the case. I do not think a big name will enter, probably an assemblyman or former state senator or someone of that nature.

Generic D-55

Whitman-45

Generic D-55

Issa-45

Generic D-57

Generic R-43

I put generic D because there are about a billion names that could go there, all high profile. Again I don’t think any high profile names will enter but maybe a slightly better than a state assembly or state senator runs like Cooley or the former LG. But barring a scandal I can’t see victory for team red here.

Connecticut- In the even that Jodi Rell runs then it will be slightly competitive but with a dem tilt. Why McMahon is thinking of running despite her loss in a great year last year is beyond me. Ok, in a 3 way race she could get an opening but in a two way with Murphy with Obama at the top she is just giving her money away. If by some very horrible for team blue circumstance the ex SoS wins the nod then it becomes yucky but I think she has the edge.

Murphy-55

McMahon-45

Murphy-51

Rell-49

Murphy- 57

Some Dude- 43

Bysiewicz-52

McMahon-48

Bysiewicz- 46

Rell-54

Bysiewicz- 53

Some Dude-47

For gosh sakes get a job in the private sector Susan!

Delaware- Yeah with Biden leading the ticket this isn’t interesting. Unless O’Donnell runs, then it is just fun to watch. Carper had sparked some retirement rumors but has now decided to run for re-election. This is safe even if he changes his mind.

Carper-64

O’Donnell-36

Carper-67

Some Dude-33

Yes I have it as slightly more competitive with O’Donnell because she would actually get money and is well known. She did get 40 percent in 2010 so I think my number is about accurate, though it might be a tad generous.

Florida- Gosh we can never have a non eventful campaign in the place old people go to die state. Just kidding, no offense old folks including my Florida bound parents. It is Florida so it will be competitive. Mike Haridopolos has really showed his chops as a great fundraiser and he will prove a challenge should he be the nominee. First I think he will have to get through his primary. I think he scares away LeMieux, just a hunch, I know he has been sounding candidate-ish but offers nothing and I do not think he could win the nomination. I do think Mack will run however. I do not know how a primary goes between the two, I really don’t. I do fear H more than Mack. My worst fear is that Nelson gets scared and retires but he doesn’t seem interested in pursuing that course of action but if he did then it would be awful news for team blue.

Nelson-52

Haridopolos-48

Nelson-53

Mack-47

Nelson-56

LeMieux-44

Haridopolos is the strongest followed by Mack and then the all around meh LeMieux.

Hawaii- This is fools gold for Republicans. Hawaii is not going red in 2012, I don’t care if Lingle runs or not. First off to quash the common misconception, Lingle is not popular in Hawaii anymore. She is not winning anything anymore. She left office with at best tepid approvals. This is Obama nation, they love the guy, this is his birth place, and he will clean up here. In an open seat or with Akaka this is safe dem. The best the Republicans can hope for here is a Joe Lieberman clone winning the Dem nod. I am of course talking about Case. But that being said Case couldn’t even win a CD, so that may say something about his future statewide.

Akaka-63

Lingle-37

Akaka-65

Djou-35

Akaka-69

Some Dude-31

Case- 59

Lingle- 41

Case- 61

Djou- 39

Case-64

Some Dude-36

Any Other Dem besides Case or Hannemann (either rep, AG, LG etc..)- 60

Lingle-40

AOD- 63

Djou-37

AOD- 66

Some Dude-34

Yawn….

Indiana- This will be a fun race. I love Lugar, he is a great Senator with great constituent services and is a genuinely nice guy. He is conservative but I can look past that and look at all the good he has done my state. But I can understand Republicans wanting to primary him. He has been anti tea party acting but he tells it like he sees it. It is hard to say how the primary is going to go right now. I have seen no polling and it is hard to peg it without polling. I say this because while his occasional independent streaks will hurt him he has built up a lot of good will with Republicans over the years. I personally know no Republicans that want to see him lose. All of this said I think he is definitely vulnerable and in a two way race he will probably lose I think. Like I said it is hard to say this early. I do not get all the love for Delph, he is a some dude without much of a profile. His wikipedia page is literally one sentence long. Everyone is comparing him to Stutzman, I really don’t think it is an apt comparison. I have talked to a lot of people who know state politics and know it well and no one really has much to say about him. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong but I don’t think he’ll go very far, probably ten percent, it could be enough to save Lugar though. As for the dems Donnelly will either run for this or Governor. I think he is leaning towards Senate as Mourdock is an easier opponent than Pence. Ellsworth is also thinking of a run for either this or Governor. I think he is leaning towards Governor. Either one would be competitive against Mourdock, but neither would win. Neither would have a chance in hell against Lugar and trust me if it wasn’t clear Lugar could lose the nomination neither would be interested in a run.

Lugar-68

Donnelly-32

Lugar- 67

Ellsworth-33

Lugar has no trouble should he win the nomination. He’s a shoo in.

Mourdock- 53

Donnelly-47

Mourdock- 53

Ellsworth- 47

Indiana is not a far right state, it is center right and this would be competitive without Lugar. However in the end I do not see a dem winning as I do not think Obama will win without a Palin as the nominee. I do not want to make a prediction for Delph, it would be too hard at this point.

Maine- Team blue is praying Snowe gets knocked out in a primary. I think it can happen. If Mike Castle, who was more conservative than Snowe can lose to Christine O’Donnell then I suspect Snowe will be vulnerable. Her re-elects are god awful, PPP finds her losing to a “more conservative challenger” 63-29. I don’t know much about this tea party dude running against her but if he gets national support then I could see him winning. I suspect if Snowe looks DOA then dems will run Michaud or Culter, who is a dem but didn’t want to run in the primary last year. If Snowe wins the nod then its safe R, if she doesn’t then likely to safe D.

Snowe-65

Michaud-35

Snowe- 66

Culter-34

Snowe-70

Some Dude-30

“more conservative challenger”- 38

Michaud- 62

MCC- 39

Culter-61

MCC- 42

Dem some dude-58

Safe R with Snowe, close to safe D without her.

Maryland- Safe Dem, end of story. There is a small chance do to age that Cardin retires but I seriously doubt it. With or without him it is safe. I actually wouldn’t mind seeing him call it quits as I think LG Brown would be a likely candidate and I love the guy. I can’t see any serious Republicans interested in a run.

Cardin-66

Some Dude-34

Generic D-62

Some Dude-38

Yawn…

Massachusetts- This is the hardest thing to predict, period. Brown is, at the current moment, very popular. But that can change. We can’t forgot that Mass is D+12 but we can’t also forget that Brown has a shit load of cash and is uber popular. I have gone back and forth but in the end I predict he narrowly hangs on. It is a hard prediction and I do not think Republicans should hold it for granted, it will be competitive even if it looks safe now.

Brown-51

Generic D- 49

I’m not going to look at names as there are too many to list and I do not know who the hell is running or not.

Michigan- This one troubles me. I’m actually hoping Stabenow retires, her numbers suck and a fresh face could actually be better. But Obama should have no trouble carrying Michigan and he will carry Stabenow over. Though dems will spend much needed money here.

Stabenow- 53

Hoekstra-47

Stabenow- 54

Land-46

Stabenow- 52

Anuzis-48

I am taking GOPVOTER’s/JamesNOLA’s word that Anuzis is a good candidate. I do not think too much of Land, she adds little and I doubt she even runs.

Minnesota- Nothing to see here. Safe Dem. Klobuchar is uber popular and no repub in their right mind would challenge her with a much more winnable seat only two years away. I think Bachmann is more interested in a run for prez and if she does run for this she gets crushed.

Klobuchar-66

Generic R- 34

Klobuchar-63

Bachmann-37

Bachmann brings in a hell of a lot of money than generic R but she is much more polarizing than generic R so she only does marginally better.

Mississippi- Yawn.

Wicker-68

Generic D-32

Yawn.

Missouri- Not good folks (well dem folks that is). I do not feel good about this one at all. Missouri has moved very far to the right and I can’t see McCaskill winning. Though Steeleman is an extremely weak candidate I think she has the edge. Obama did not win here in 08 and I can’t see him doing it now unless Palin is the nominee. Of course I think McCaskill outperforms Obama but not by enough.

Steeleeman-53

McCaskill-47

Martin-51

McCaskill-49

I think Martin does worse as he is not as known. I think a more serious candidate would outperform Steeleman but like I said I still give her the edge. I did not list anyone else as I can’t see them running.

Montana- I heart Jon Tester but I like horse race stuff enough to know he does not stand much of a chance. One thing that gives me hope is the smartest person I know on the internet (user 270 I think) has hope for him and that gives me hope. Seriously 270 you’re a genius. Rehberg also does seem like someone with skeletons in his closets.  However seeing what I know now I can’t see victory here.

Rehberg-54

Tester-46

Not a blowout but still not good.

Nebraska- I know its still early but unless Nelson gets blessed with a NV-2010 set of events then he is vaminos.

Brunning-62

Nelson-38

Some Dude R- 57

Nelson-43

Brunning wins Boozman style and if one of the random dude wins the R nod then they also win the general but not by the same margin.

Nevada- As simple as this: With Ensign it’s a pickup with Heller its an R hold. I suspect Ensign will bow out and Heller wins no trouble. But hey stranger things have happened.

Berkley- 56

Ensign-44

Heller-54

Berkley-46

Berkley- 58

Angle- 42.

Berkley keeps it close no matter what but with Heller she doesn’t pull it out.

New Jersey- Jersey is one of those states that just produce close elections. Menendez has crappy numbers but with Obama on the ticket it should carry him over.

Menendez- 52

Kean-48

Menendez-54

Guadagno-46

Menendez-57

Dobbs-43

Menendez-55

Some Dude-45

Kean is the most fearful but I think team blue still keeps this even with him though they will have to sweat and spend much needed resources.

New Mexico- This one is still Lean D in my book. This is actually good news for team blue, I would rather defend it with Obama leading the ticket than during a midterm with Martinez as the R challenger. I’ve got a soft spot for Heinrich but any dem will do. The thing that could kill team blue that we have to watch out for is a divisive crowded primary. We need to get one candidate and leave it be. Wilson is a great get for team red if she runs but I still do not think she wins.

Heinrich-54

Wilson-46

Lujan-52

Wilson-48

Balderas-53

Wilson- 47

I do not think any R of significance besides Wilson might run. Even if Johnson runs I can’t see him winning the R nod.  Maybe I’m biased since I like him but I think Heinrich is the strongest but Balderas and Lujan would also win.

New York- Yawn…..

Gillibrand- 65

Some Dude-35

Yawn.

North Dakota- I wish Conrad would have took one for the team but there is no guarantee he would have even won. I hate to sound like a downer but this is not going to happen for team blue.

Some Dude R-66

Some Dude D- 34

I really do not know a lot about the candidates. I doubt dems get a top tier candidate like the ex AG or Pomeroy and I also doubt the repubs get a great prize either besides the PSC.

Ohio- Tough call. I like Brown and it probably reflects in my rating. Brown and Obama will get the troops out in high numbers and I think Brown will do better than Obama by at least 4 points. Maybe I’m wrong, its hard to tell just yet.

Brown-52

Mandel-48

Brown-51

Hunsted-49

Brown-50

Taylor-50

Brown-56

Carey-44

Taylor is the strongest but Brown squeaks it out. I am a Drew Carey fan but should he run I can’t see him winning the nod or the GE. Though if he let voters play blinco…..

Pennsylvania- The golden Casey name= victory but by what margin? PA turned against team blue last cycle and while not to the point of no possible return I still think Casey will have a mildly competitive race. Though I of course am not pessimistic enough to think he will lose barring a scandal.

Casey-56

Any Congressman-44

Casey-59

Some Dude-41

So while it is single digit competitive Casey still outperforms Obama by a decent margin and wins close to double digits. I doubt any congress critters are interested. I can’t think of any other serious candidates, maybe the LG- though I’ve heard nothing mentioned about him running.

Rhode Island- For some reason this race has gotten a lot of attention. I haven’t the clue why. You have a scandal free popular incumbent in a liberal state. Team red really doesn’t have that much to offer. The much hyped 2010 nominee has already declined and the ex Governor left office with meh numbers. If team blue loses Rhode Island or it is even a single digit race then it will be a crappy night.

Whitehouse- 60

Carcieri-40

Whitehouse-64

Some Dude-36

Barring a scandal I just can’t see this turning into something.

Tennessee- In the unlikely event that uber popular former Governor Brendeson runs then we have a race on our hands. If not then yawn. Here is what I predict happens. Corker gets a primary from a couple some dudes and wins but it’s a meh win but that said he still wins comfy in the GE. Now if Brendeson runs then I think he makes a close race but in the end I do not see him winning as a dem in Tennessee for a federal office. He has good numbers now but just like with Manchin they drop during the course of the campaign.

Corker- 54

Brendeson- 46

Corker-65

Some Dude-35

Brendeson-51

More Conservative Challenger- 49

More Conservative Challenger-58

Some Dude-42

The only path for a Brendeson victory is if there is a god awful R primary and Corker goes down. Even then it is a tough race. I will go ahead and predict no dem of importance challenges Corker.

Texas- Yawn… The real action here is in the primary.

R-65

D-35

I hope it is Leppert or Dewhurst at least.

Utah- Yawn…. Only slightly competitive if Matheson runs but I think he’ll stick with a CD even if it is higher R. I do wonder if Hatch will be the nominee, it looks doubtful. Though he has tacked more to the right ala McCain but I do not know if it will be enough.

Hatch-64

Matheson-36

Hatch-75

Some Dude-25

Chaffetz-58

Matheson-42

Chaffetz-67

Some Dude-33

Matheson would be smart to stick to Congress or if he must then go for Governor. I doubt he runs unless he is truly sick of Congress and wants to go out running for Senate, if that makes sense.

Vermont- Yawn…

Sanders-66

Salmon-34

Yawn….

Virginia- I really wish Webb would have taken one for the team but alas the heart wants what it wants. The question on everyone’s mind is what about Kaine? I am an avid Frasier fan and will use the episode “No Sex Please, were skittish” as an example of this race. Team blue is current facing a similar flight of ” No Senate run Please, I’m skittish.” But just as Frasier gets his “amore” I think VA dems will get there Kaine. With Kaine I think it team blue keeps it without it him it is hard but not impossible. I do think people should recognize the full potential of Tom Periello, there were I think 5 dems who voted for all of the major dem proposals in R+ districts and held on and he darn near won in an R+5 McCain district. He did this while campaigning on health care and the stimulus against a moderate well funded serious challenger and coming so close is just amazing. He also raised a shit load of money. Yes he is a serious candidate and if Kaine whimps out then he should be the dem nominee and yes I think he can win, though it will be close.

Kaine- 53    

Allen-47

Allen- 50

Periello-50

Notice before that I said could, at the current time I’ll give the edge to Webb, but to my Republican friends I still wouldn’t get too confident if Kaine passes, it is still a tossup.

Washington- If Murray won in a midterm then Cantwell should be fine.

Cantwell- 58

Some Dude- 42

It narrows if a serious challenger enters but I can’t see that happening, all the attention will likely be on the Governors race.

West Virginia- This one gets a ton of talk but I can’t see Manchin losing. Yes Obama leading the ticket hurts but not enough. If SMC runs for anything (I think she stays in Congress forever) it will be Governor. She could have had a much easier race last time around and kept her CD but she passed. This is lean to likely dem in my book.  

Manchin-56

Moore-Capito-44

Manchin-59

Ireland-41

Manchin-65

Some Dude-35

While I recognize SMC is strong I do not think she is as strong as has been implied. Her numbers are high enough now but give it a serious campaign and they will become more normal.

Wisconsin- Only competitive if Kohl (great store FYI) calls it quits. Even then I give the edge to team blue minus Ryan. Obama should win WI and if he does then the dem nominee for Senate will as well. I can’t see a serious candidate running against Kohl.

Kohl- 65

Some Dude-35

Kind-53

Van Hollen-47

Ryan-52

Kind-48

Feingold-51

Van Hollen-49

Ryan-53

Feingold-47

If Kohl runs then he will just face some dude but if he doesn’t then a good R will undoubtedly run. I think Ryan would have the edge in an open seat but I also think there is a greater chance that I run than Ryan.

Wyoming-Yawn… He could face a primary for something but team blue isn’t winning.

R-67

D-33

Yawn…

So there you have, purely speculative, very early Senate projections. If I had to guess my Republican friends will think I’m too optimistic while my Democratic friends will think I’m too pessimistic. Meh, I am what I am. I would love to get some feedback. Remember this is uber early and a million things can and will happen to affect these ratings. I hope you enjoyed my diary. Thanks!  

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Hoosierdem’s Senate Predicts

I have put together my Senate Predictions. Not overall very pretty for us but he hold control. I provided some commentary to along with them. There is nothing scientific about them, no fancy turnout models, just me looking at polls and the dynamics of the races and putting my gut call. Enjoy.

 

Alabama

Shelby-65

Barnes-35

Nothing to see here.

Alaska

Murkowski-39

McAdams-31

Miller-30

Some egg on Sarah’s face.

Arizona

McCain-64

Glassman-36

Good news for John McCain.

Arkansas

Boozman-61

Lincoln-39

Yada Yada Yada…

California

Boxer-50

Fiorina-46

Others-4

Could be higher for Boxer

Colorado

Buck-50

Bennet-49

Others-1

Close but no cigar

Connecticut

Blumenthal-55

McMahon-44

Others-1

What a waste of money

Delaware

Coons-62

The Witch-38

Thank You DE GOP, you guys ROCK!

Florida

Rubio-43

Crist-33

Meek-23

Others-1

Senator Rubio will have a long career.

Georgia

Isakson-61

Thurmond-37

Others-2

Decent run by Thurmond, nothing to be ashamed of

Hawaii

Inouye-68

Cavasso-29

Others-3

Hopes he takes Ab over the finish line.

Idaho

Crapo-70

Sullivan-25

Others-5

I’m glad Crapo is not unopposed. No one should run unopposed

Illinois

Kirk-48

Sexy Alexi-46

Others-6

Close but Kirk pulls through. Let’s hope Obama can help turnout

Indiana

The lobbyist-55

Ellsworth-42

Others-3

Ugh

Iowa

Grassley-62

Conlin-37

Others-1

Not bad but no way Grassley loses

Kansas

Moran-72

Johnston-28

Not even in a good year

Kentucky

Paul-55

Conway-45

I don’t want to talk about it

Louisiana

Vitter-60

Melancon-40

It’s Louisiana, they’ve seen worse

Maryland

Babs-64

Some Dude-35

Others-1

Maybe she’ll finally chair a committee

Missouri

Blunt-53

Carnahan-44

Others-3

Sigh, maybe she can run again in 6 years.

Nevada

Angle-47

Reid-46

NOTA-5

Others-2

I’m sorry I don’t buy the all polls are wrong theory

New Hampshire

Ayotte-56

Hodes-43

Others-1

Wrong year

New York

Schumer-66

Townsend-31

Others-3

Interesting note Townsend is son of liberal icon and former IN gubernatorial candidate Wayne Townsend

New York Special

Gillibrand-61

The father of Kara- 35

Others-4

Lucky lady

North Carolina

Burrrrrr-55

Marshall-41

Others-4

Wrong year

North Dakota

Hoeven-74

Potter-26

Over the moment Dorgan left

Ohio

Portman-57

Fisher-42

Others-1

I will hold out hope for Strickland

Oklahoma

Coburn-75

Rogers-25

Check out Roger’s pic on wikipedia. Funny

Oregon

Wyden-56

Huffman-41

Others-2

Hopefully Wyden pulls Kits over the finish line

Pennsylvania

Toomey-51

Sestak-49

Close but the PA goes evil

South Carolina

DeMint-59

Greene-21

Others-20

DeMint under 60 should say something about him

South Dakota

Thune-100

I wish someone would have taken the sacrificial lamb role

Utah

Lee-63

Granato-37

Lee was under 50 in Mason Dixon

Vermont

Leahay-66

Britton-34

Hopefully Shumlin benefits

Washington

Murray-51

Rossi-49

Close but Murray hangs on. You don’t enter as late as Rossi and win

West Virginia

Manchin-52

The Floridian-47

Others-1

Manchin has got the momentum back. Even Rass has him ahead 3

Wisconsin

Johnson-54

Feingold-46

Feingold is a horrible campaigner and it’s a horrible year

Feedback? Thanks.

 

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FINAL Indiana political overview and predictions 2010- It’s going to be an average year

Though this was expected to be a boring year for Indiana politics, nothing can be farther from the truth. We had the last FU from Evan Bayh, the resignation of Mark Souder, Ellsworth making a plunge for Senate, and the worst candidate for Secretary of State candidate the Republicans have ever nominated. These predictions are much more pessimistic than they were months ago when I crafted my orginal diary. Times were different then and it looked as if things could still be turned around. They have not. But it will still not be a horrible night all the same. Enjoy!  

IN Senate

When Evan Bayh announced just days before the filing date that he would not seek re-election I was furious. However his timing was actually brilliant. It ensured that none of the big name Republicans who would love the job like Pence or Daniels got on the ballot. Instead the Republicans got stuck with washed up former Senator Dan Coats. Coats has been gaff-tastic and is a seriously flawed candidate. While he had a bloody fight to get his parties nomination over a bunch of nobodies we quietly nominated top tier candidate Congressman Brad Ellsworth. That is what this race looked like when the announcement first happened however while his profile is much better than Coats he has run a horrible campaign. He was clearly not ready for statewide. Honestly even had he run an excellent one the national mood would have kept him down.  I take it as a slight comfort that Coats will probably serve at max two terms. Maybe he’ll even get bagged to death in 2016, but I doubt it. Chances are he will keep a low profile, be a solid R vote and get re-elected. I’m not sure what is next for Ellsworth, he could go for Congress or Senate next year or maybe even LG. I do not know what he will do. Any here is my predict.

Prediction

Coats-54%

Ellsworth -43%

Libeterian-3%

IN-01

Pete Visclosky disgusts me. He is corrupt and genuinely slimy if you get my drift. I have been hoping for a primary challenge for years but to no prevail. No one dare goes against him as it would be the last thing they ever did in politics. Yes this is one of “those district”. It would be nice for him to just retire and take a cozy lobbying job yet he loves Washington too much and has his job as long as he wants it. In fact the Washington Post declared him the safest Democratic Congressman. He is progressive enough (although the sleaze-ball voted against wall street regulation) however he is very corrupt. Trust me the day will come when his ways catches up to him and he is forced out in disgrace. He is pretty much guaranteed a 14th term to Congress though because the Republicans have yet again nominated a perennial candidate who has no chance of winning. He has ran in every race since 2002. So don’t expect a William Jefferson set of events to happen because trust me Mark Leyva is no Joseph Cao. I just hope next cycle he is booted out in the primary. This guy is an embarrassment and trust me a primary here would be the best thing possible for us. Still the area is so corrupt we would probably not get a whole lot better.  

Prediction

Visclosky-67%

Leyva-33%

(Not sure if there are any third parties running. If so give the Lib 2 and take one away from Visclosky and Leyva respectfully)

IN-02

Indiana’s second CD has a Republican tilt to it but I think Donnelly will win by a solid enough margin all the same. In 08 he garnered 70% of the vote. Republicans are smart! This year Republicans nominated a woman who actually goes by Wacky Jackie (although we just nominated Alvin freaking Greene so we probably shouldn’t talk). Wolarski is a state representative. Wolarski has run a decent campaign and do to the lean of the district it will be somewhat close. The most recent poll commissioned by Wish TV had Donnelly leading by five and Jackie’s internals supposedly has Donnelly leading by four.

Prediction

Donnelly-53%

Wolarski-47%

IN-03

I have never been fond of Mark Souder. He has always came off as an ass to me. During his time in Washington he always fought for family values, about as social of conservative as they come. Yeah Mark Souder resigned after admitting to having an affair with a staffer, who ironically made a tape with him about abstinence only sex ed. You are supposed to expect anything in Congress but I did not expect that. None the less I was glad he resigned because I was plain and simply glad to see him away from Washington. He had a somewhat close primary to a rich teabagging car dealer owner. However right after all of the affair shit broke and he resigned. So the Republicans chose a nominee at a convention of delegates. Not surprisingly they chose state senator Marlin Stutzman who ran a very impressive campaign against former Senator and lobbyist Dan Coats. Personally I think Stutzman would have been stronger than Coats but all the same this is a nice parting gift for Stutzman who defeated a hullabaloo of candidates at the convention. I have nothing against Stutzman, while I disagree with him ideology he seems like a nice guy and will be much better than Souder at any rate. We have a great candidate in the district and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Former city councilman Tom Hayhurst is running. Hayhurst was the nominee in 2006 and ran a great campaign. He is known for his fundraising ability. If this was 2006 or 2008 I would put this at lean D but Stutzman is too popular and the district too conservative. I know some say that the supporters of his convention opponents won’t show up but I don’t buy that argument, I just don’t.

Prediction

Stutzman-59%

Hayhurst-41%

IN-04

Steve Buyer does not actually have a squeaky clean reputation but I have never particularly disliked him all the same. He is not seeking re-election this year and do to his wife’s illness. I believe his involvement in the frontier education foundation probably contributed but I want to believe he is retiring solely to spend more time with his wife who is not in good condition health wise. Term limited Indiana SoS Todd Rokita jump at the chance of an upgrade. He also considered a potential Senate run but passed. Rokita is not that bad, while he will be a mostly conservative vote he really does seem reasonable like Dick Lugar, who is also conservative but still has an independent streak. We have no chance here come November. Some dude David Sanders is our nominee.

Prediction

Rokita-66%

Sanders-34%

IN-05

Republicans are so freaking stupid. I am not talking ideology here but pure horse race politics. Dan Burton is the most corrupt politician in the state. He is a royal douche who, I feel, is way out of touch with his district and reality. He is an avid golfer who has actually missed votes to golf with lobbyists and goes on expensive golfing trips. He was also avid on spreading the Vincent Foster conspiracy during Clinton’s days. He has been in Washington too long and everyone hates him and knows he is an ineffective legislature. He was a prime target to be primaried but no, the Republicans fucked it up. About a gazillion people jumped at the chance to knock him out. Had the number of challengers been knocked to single digits he would have lost. But no, name recognition got him a pathetic 30 percent of the vote, barely enough to squeak by former Republican Party chair Luke Messer. 70% of Republicans voted against this sleaze bag but no he still gets a 15th term. Republicans/Teabaggers get your shit together next time! We nominated a real life teabagger Democrat. Yes a teabagging Democrat. I know a lot of people have wondered if the baggers and everyone will unite behind the Democrat, well it ain’t going to happen. Crawford is not a politician and has no skill and while I would rather have a teabagging Democrat than Burton it is not going to happen. Maybe next year they will do it right or maybe Burton will even retire. This is one of those rare moments when teabaggers and Democrats share a same goal.  

Prediction

Burton-65%

Crawford-24%

Others-11%

IN-06

Mike Pence is a savvy politician who has a real future in politics. I wish he was a Democrat because believe me he has skill. I am willing to bet that his next term in Congress will be his last, especially. He will either run for Governor, Senate or President. The only thing that could get him to stay would be the possibility of being speaker someday but I highly doubt it happens. We have put up, once again, minister Barry Welsh. Barry is a good guy but does not have what it takes to make this race competitive.

Prediction

Pence- 72%

Welsh- 28%

IN-07

Andre Carson is the most progressive elected politician in Indiana. He is only the second Muslim currently in Congress. I really like him, though some do not. Carson won a special election back in 2008 when his grandmother, a really decent person and effective Congresswoman, passed away. He was elected to a full term by a large margin and will face perennial candidate Marvin Scott in November. Scott was the 2004 nominee for Senate against Evan Bayh, receiving 37% of the vote. He has ran for this seat several times, actually coming close in 1994. The district is fairly liberal but has some conservative areas to it. Carson actually faced a close election during his original run. He will survive though, no question. The latest Wish TV poll had him at 50 and Scott at 37.  

Prediction

Carson-57%

Scott-43%

IN-08

Brad Ellsworth is universally known and loved in Indiana’s eight congressional district, however he will not be running for Congress this year but will instead be running for US Senate. We got state representative Trent Van Haaften. Van Haaften is fairly popular.  Larry Buchson is the essence of generic R in my view. He won a very unimpressive primary win, much less than I had predicted. The Tea Party is not that fond of him, though they are not of Coats but they are sucking up to vote for him and will probably do the same for Buchson. The national parties have all packed up and left, polls (albeit internal) showing a Republican win here. Ellsworth will probably win here but will not provide coattails.

Prediction

Buchson- 58%

Van Haaften- 42%

IN-09

Baron Hill is my Congressman and I have the utmost respect for him. He has represented the district well and I have always been fond of him. His only “easy” election was last year when the Republicans nominated retread Mike Sodrel again. Sodrel originally ran in 2002 and was defeated yet he successfully ran in 2004 but was defeated again by Hill in 2006 and very soundly again in 2008. You would think he got the message but no, he once again ran this year and he came in third place in the Republican primary. The Republicans nominated Bloomington attorney Todd Young. Young is nothing special but is a step above lunatic Travis Hankins and Sodrel. I mean at least Young has a higher education than a high school diploma for one. Hill did one thing uber stupid though. During a town hall one of these Republican activist with a video camera bated the Congressman and got what she wanted with him telling her that it is his town hall and he makes the rules. He is referring to his ban of video camera’s but it did not look good. It was used in some attack ads but was not as much as I thought Young would use it. Like I said Hill has never really been given a free pass and this is shaping up to be a much more conservative year than he has faced in the past and the Republicans nominated someone much better than Sodrel. So it will certainly be no cake walk but Hill is used to tough elections and he knows how to handle himself. Hill has walked the district like he did in his legendary Senate run against Dan Coats. He has run the best campaign he has ever run in my view. He has been up on the air a lot and so have the DCCC. Though national parties have spent more against Hill he has still been up a lot. Oh and yes Hill has yet to trail in a poll against Young. Today, after much wait we have seen the first publicly released poll of this district showing Hill leading 46-44. Also reportedly Hill’s internals also have this a two point race. Hill has been running a progressive campaign, not hiding his votes on HCR or cap and trade. He boasted of these things during the debates. I have never been more proud and my gut says Hill survives, though I’ll admit it could go either way.

Prediction

Hill-49%

Young- 46%

Others-5%

IN SoS

Incumbent Secretary of State Todd Rokita is term limited. The Democrats nominated Vop Osili  over Tom McKenna for the job and the Republicans nominated Charlie White. White is the worst candidate the state Republicans have ever nominated. In fact he is currently under investigation and I have heard he may be forced to step down if he does win. Still no one cares about SoS. It is very low profile and he will get by do the R by his name.  Polls have him in the lead and he will likely win. Ugh.

White-53

Osili-45

Libetarian-2

Auditor and Treasurer

Berry and Mourdock are safe. They are both facing 28 year old first time candidates. Though I am highly impressed with Mourdock’s opponent who is a Rhodes Scholar. I will probably vote for Berry for Auditor. They will both win in the mid sixties.

IN State House

We were supposed to lose the state house last year but we managed to cling onto it. I do not think we will be as lucky this year. We have many competitive elections and not a lot in our favor. I am predicting we lose it. I am going to predict that the Republicans get 54 seats and we get 46. I hope I am wrong.

State Senate

The Republicans will have no problems retaining the state senate.

Please let me know what you think. I welcome all feedback, positive or not. I would especially like to hear from my fellow Indiana SSP users. Thanks!!!!

 

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Hoosierdem’s Doomsday House Predicts Using Professional Ratings.

I have decided to take a stab at predicting the totals of Congressional seats lost this cycle. I am going to put my formulas that I list below into the expert’s predictions to find the outcome of the upcoming election.  

As noted these are pessimistic. Consider this a worst case scenario. I myself have been saying for a while now to expect a loss in the mid fifties. Feel free to tweak the model a bit, it is not hard at all.

This is my formula for calculating Democratic seats. I see anything under tossup going to team red, most tossups breaking away from us, a significant number of lean seats and even a couple of safe members. Feel free to tell me what you think should be switched around on these. Personally I debated lowering the leans a bit. My tossup formula may be a bit on the dark side as well.

100% Lean, Likely and safe R gone.

75% tossups are gone.

40% leans D are gone.

10% Likely D are gone.

0% Safe D are gone.

This is my formula for calculating Republican seats. They keep everything under tossup. They lose half their tossups and anything above it.

0% of Lean Likely or Safe gone

50% of Tossups are gone.

100% or Lean Likely or Safe are gone.

Here goes, I am no mathematician so please correct me if you see any errors. Many answer came out in decimals. I rounded up for .5 or higher and down for .4 and lower.  

Swing State Project

Democrats

16 Lean or Likely R= 16

42 Tossups= 31.5 round to 32

32 Lean D= 12.8 round to 13

26 Likely D= 2.6 round to 3

=64 Seats Lost.

Republicans

3 Tossups= 1.5 round to 2

2 Lean D= 2

=4 seats lost.

Republicans Gain 60 seats.

Charlie Cook

Democrats

22 Lean or Likely R= 22

38 Tossups= 28.5 rounds to 29

30 Lean D= 12

25 Likely D= 2.5 rounds to 3  

=66 seats lost

Republicans

2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

=3 seats lost

Republicans gain 63 Seats.

Rothenberg

Note- So Rothenberg uses the tossup tilts method. Well I guess I should create a new formula but I will just clump all tossups together. Also I am counting R favored as Likely R.  

Democrats

18 Lean or Likely R= 18  

42 Tossups= 31.5 round to 32

16 Lean D= 6.4 round to 6

15 Likely D= 1.5 round to 2

= 58 seats lost

Republicans

4 Tossups= 2

2 Lean or Likely D= 2

= 4 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 54 seats.

CQ

Democrats

15 Lean Likely or Safe R = 15

37 Tossups= 27.75 round to 28

24 Lean D= 9.6 round to 10

24 Likely D= 2.4 round to 2

= 55 Seat Loss

Republicans

3 Tossups= 1.5 round to 2

2 Likely D= 2

= 4 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 51 seats.

Crystal Ball

Democrats

30 Lean or Likely R= 30

29 Tossups= 21.75 round to 22.

16 Lean D= 6.4 round to 6

24 Likely D= 2.4 round to 2

= 60 Seat Loss

Republicans

2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

=3 Seat Loss

Republicans gain 57 seats.

Real Clear Politics

Democrats

39 Lean or Likely R= 39

39 Tossups= 29.25 round to 29

29 Lean D= 11.6 round to 12  

26 Likely D= 2.6 round to 3

= 83 seat loss

Republicans

2 Tossups= 1

2 Lean D= 2

= 3 seat loss

Republicans gain 80 seats.

Real Clear Politics is by far the worst, I never like them. Averaging all of this data together Republicans gain 64 seats total. This is more than I expect but we will see. Here’s to me being wrong!  

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OPTIMISM in 2010, say what?

     

    Gloom and doom, the storm is coming anything with a D by its name is going down and going down hard. Diary after diary with ever troubling news. Yes the world is coming to an end. Don’t you get tired of this?  

   

    All this gloom and doom is just down right depressing. Seriously the tone here sometimes is plain and simply mournful. I am not saying it is not going to be a bad year, I am bracing myself for a House loss. However let me share with you a narrative from my youth that I love to tell.

    When I was younger my great aunt was very active in the local dem party. She was a community organizer and volunteer before it was cool. She would go door to door, drag her husband out to put up signs. A lot of local candidates called her the de facto campaign manager. She even got mentioned in the local newspaper as the Mother of the Harrison County Democratic Party. She was perhaps best known for making a speech at the December meeting of the local Democratic Party after the November election. In the meeting she would stand up and always say “Wow, it is a GREAT year to be a Democrat”.

    Whether it had been a horrible year or not it did not matter, she would harp onto the positive telling of all the successes and not even mention the losses. We could have lost the Sheriffs race (the Presidential race in Harrison County politics) and many others but picked up a meager county council seat. Well we would hear her tell us of how that city councilman elect is going to do so much good and she would make us feel like we won every election with her optimistic attitude.

     I am not asking everyone to be unrealistic and say everything is good but let’s take a moment to look at what is going good in this cycle. Good in 2010, I know weird to hear those in the same sentence referring to dems. I want you to pretend to be my Great Aunt except you are making that speech to a room full of dem political junkies who follow every election. What will be the races you tell to the crowd to provide comfort? Here is my list.

My First list (the near sure things)

 (these are not in any sort of order)

1. Alex Sink- I honestly believe that Sink will win this November. Scott greatly helps her. I do not think the race should be taken for granted, I could see a Scott win, and that is truly horrifying but I think Sink will get a win.  I hope so at least. I do not know why anyone would vote Scott. That man belongs in prison not the Governor’s mansion.

2. Mark Dayton- I believe we saw a poll showing this a tied race but that poll had the electorate at a huge Republican, was it 47 percent? All other polling shows a Dayton landslide. I expect him to win 7-8% at least.

3. John Carney- If polling is an indicator then we should pick this seat up easily. I know his opponent has gotten a lot of hype but she is not that threatening and while Castle will undoubtedly win I doubt he gives the same coattails that we expected at the beginning of the cycle. I think he will win by say 6-7% not enough to bring down Carney.

4. Dan Malloy- He is heavily favored in Connecticut and he is nice to have for a future Senate run as well.

5. Cedric Richmond- Until I see non biased internal polling I doubt Cao can win. I think he will be close-ish, much more so than he should but I am sorry his vote against HCR ruined any chances he had in my view. At best I think he loses by only 7 or 8 points, which is an impressive performance actually. This is one of the few districts were Obama can help Richmond. All Richmond needs to do is peg Cao as the anti Obama who voted against the stimulus and HCR. Hit him hard for HCR.

6. Colleen Hannabusa- Her and Richmond are fixing mistakes but they are a pickup all the same.

7. Hawaii Dem- Whoever wins the primary is overwhelmingly favored in the general to be the next Governor of Hawaii.

8. Dan Seals- I do not think we have seen a poll showing him losing. That includes polling from the ever shady We Ask America.

9. Joe Garcia- I debated putting him into the category below but I feel fairly good about this race as he is a GREAT candidate and the Republican is a horribly flawed one.

List Two (candidates who could win but are tossups)

   (No order either)

1. Jack Conway- Thanks to baggers Conway has a shot. Conway is the perfect candidate he really is. The year will keep this close and probably deliver us a Paul win but this is not guaranteed I still think this race could change course and fast. The ads literally write themselves. I have seen Conway’s tough cop ad a lot over the last week and have been impressed by it. Conway is young energetic and down right perfect. I encourage everyone to watch his fancy farm speech, his second one not the profanity one. That speech was darn good. Put that in ad form and this race narrows a lot. If anyone in the Conway camp is reading this please considering doing this. Also a lot of ads with Paul making his whack job comments.

2. Jerry Brown- Sadly it looks like money can buy votes. However I have not given up hope on Brown yet and I honestly think he can turn it around. He needs to start advertising pronto. This is an important race and if we win here then the night will not feel so bad.

3. Bill White- OMFG if we win Texas this year it would be miracle. Seriously we could lose 60 seats in the House and Bill White would make me go to bed a happy man.

4. Raj Goyle- Honestly with the third party dropping out I do not feel as good but stranger things have happened. Not getting my hopes up but I am sure that it will be closer then it should be. If only if it was 2008.

5. Scott McAdams- Unlikely but possible. Two dems from Alaska, I think I may faint.

6. Roy Barnes- Now here is someone who I honestly think stands a great chance of getting elected. I am sure he will make a good Governor and could he be a potential Senate candidate in 2016????

My list is all seats held by Republicans. Yours does not have to be like that at all. Please come up with anything you want. Vulnerable incumbents whatever. You do not have to structure it like mine either. I know my second list is a little meh but I thought it would appropriate to separate the two. Could all dem users consider making a list? Come on Tek. I think it is a real positive exercise and I know I enjoyed it anyway. 2008 was a bad year for Republicans but even they had bright spots and even some pickups. 2010 here we come.

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IN-09 Update

There are a few note worthy developments worth pointing out in the highly competitive race in IN-09 This is too long for a comment so I thought it was worth posting. Enjoy!  

Firstly Baron Hill is currently walking the district. He will walk a total of 250 miles over the next few months. I think this will help a lot. He did the same thing against Coats in his Senate runs and I think it was one of the reasons he came so close to beating him. It has gotten positives press so far and the joy of it is it is the walk is spread out  so it will continue. Think every small town newspaper will talk of the Congressman walking through their communities. Expect positive advertising over this. Hill is known for being a good athlete and he comes off young and this helps, it really does.

http://newsandtribune.com/loca…

Although something that is very much not good at all is that it was discovered that Hill received a $25,000 donation from embattled Rep Charlie Rangel. Rangel is becoming a national name and I would not be surprised if Young makes an issue of it. I think that donations from Rangel may be a central theme in IN Republicans message this year as Ellsworth and Donnelly also received money. Although they both gave the money to charity. This could hurt Hill, it really could.

http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news…

Personally I do not think it is a big deal. He got the money before any corruption charges and has already spent it but it probably would have been better to give it to charity for PR purposes all the same.  

Hill and Young have agreed to two debates. Personally I think it will help Hill as he is more seasoned. However Hill is known for losing his temper but I think he can keep it together. Young, like any challenger, is trying to make hay out of the fact he requested more debates but was denied. Well get over it Toddy and be happy with what you got.  

http://www.courier-journal.com…

Also mildly worth noting, a right wing indy dropped out but I do not think it matters much as I doubt he would have gotten a percent of the vote. Honestly I did not hear of him before I read about it in the SSP Digest. I have also heard that primary loser and royal nutcase Travis Hankins has not been fully supportive of Young. I have still seen some Hankins signs any who.  

I think this race is going to be EXTREMLY negative. It always has been with Hill and Sodrel. I think Hill will try to make the race about Young, mentioning his alleged view that Social Security is a ponzi scheme and how Young is a carpet bagger, being from Carmel originally. Young will attack over Hill’s HCR and Cap and Trade vote and the infamous town hall from hell. I know a lot of people have moved this race from a tossup to lean D recently do to the rather nice internal we saw from Young but Hill is not safe yet. Minus 2008 Hill has never really had an “easy” election so I think he has the experience to  win but it is also worth pointing out that Hill has never been overly popular. At least I do not have to risk having Mike Sodrel as my Congressman again. I mean I do not like him but at least Young has a college degree and talks about things besides abortion. This will be a close race either way but I think we may just win it. Although I am not sure what this district will look like in 2012 so it may not matter much. I would rank this at tossup tilt D. I would love to get my fellow Hoosiers input as always. Also if anyone has any questions, comments or concerns I would love to hear them. Not just about IN-09, I feel in an Indiana sort of mood.      

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Indiana political overview and predictions 2010- It’s going to be a fun year!

Sorry about the title, I was going for something more creative and that is a bit blah. However the title does explain the overview of this diary. This election cycle was expected to be as boring as can be for Indiana yet a series of retirements and resignations changed it. Indiana contains many important elections and promises to be an entertaining year. I will try and provide an overview of all of our elections and even provide predictions. I hope you enjoy!

IN Senate

When Evan Bayh announced just days before the filing date that he would not seek re-election I was furious. However his timing was actually brilliant. It ensured that none of the big name Republicans who would love the job like Pence or Daniels got on the ballot. Instead the Republicans got stuck with washed up former Senator Dan Coats. Coats has been gaff-tastic and is a seriously flawed candidate. While he had a bloody fight to get his parties nomination over a bunch of nobodies we quietly nominated top tier candidate Congressman Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth is the absolute best person to take on Coats. He is young, energetic and actually lives in Indiana. He is running as an outsider as well, instead of talking about his tenure in Congress he focuses on his time as Sherriff. Ellsworth is solidly against gun control whereas Coats seems to favor it. Ellsworth will likely get a solid number of Republicans who are dissatisfied with Coats. This race has yet to truly take off yet but when it does it will be close, very close. Please do not write Indiana off. Go ahead and give it a Republican lean for now if you want but understand a lot will change when the campaign begins. Please read Ellsworth’s campaign report that includes some encouraging poll results.

http://www.ellsworthforindiana…

Prediction

Ellsworth -50%

Coats-47%

Other-3%

IN-01

Pete Visclosky disgusts me. He is corrupt and genuinely slimy if you get my drift. I have been hoping for a primary challenge for years but to no prevail. It would be nice for him to just retire and take a cozy lobbying job yet he loves Washington too much. He is progressive enough (although the sleaze-ball voted against wall street regulation) however he is very corrupt. Trust me the day will come when his ways catches up to him and he is forced out in disgrace. He is pretty much guaranteed a 14th term to Congress though because the Republicans have yet again nominated a perennial candidate who has no chance of winning. He has ran in every race since 2002. So don’t expect a William Jefferson set of events to happen because trust me Mark Leyva is no Joseph Cao. I just hope next cycle he is booted out in the primary. This guy is an embarrassment and trust me a primary here would be the best thing possible for us.

Prediction

Visclosky-67%

Leyva-33%

(Not sure if there are any third parties running. If so give the Lib 2 and take one away from Visclosky and Leyva respectfully)

IN-02

Joe Donnelly is a nice enough guy. I have only met him once but he seemed friendly. Indiana’s second CD has a Republican tilt to it but I think Donnelly will win by a solid enough margin all the same. He actually beat a somewhat solid candidate in 08, garnering nearly 70% of the vote. Republicans are smart! They nominated a woman who actually goes by Wacky Jackie (although we just nominated Alvin freaking Greene so we probably shouldn’t talk). Jackie is a state representative and former reporter. Do to the nature of the district it is not impossible for Jackie to pull an upset but I highly doubt it. I would put it at lean D.

Prediction

Donnelly-55%

Wolarski-45%

IN-03

I have never been fond of Mark Souder. He has always came off as an ass to me. During his time in Washington he always fought for family values, about as social of conservative as they come. Yeah Mark Souder resigned a bit ago after admitting to having an affair with a staffer, who ironically made a tape with him about abstinence only sex ed. You are supposed to expect anything in Congress but I did not expect that. None the less I was glad he resigned because I was plain and simply glad to see him away from Washington. He had a somewhat close primary to a rich teabagging car dealer owner. However right after all of the affair shit broke and he resigned. So the Republicans chose a nominee at a convention of delegates. Not surprisingly they chose state senator Marlin Stutzman who just ran a very impressive campaign against former Senator and lobbyist Dan Coats. Personally I think Stutzman would have been stronger than Coats but all the same this is a nice parting gift for Stutzman who defeated a hullabaloo of candidates at the convention. I have nothing against Stutzman, while I disagree with him ideology he seems like a nice guy and will be much better than Souder at any rate. We have a great candidate in the district and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Former city councilman Tom Hayhurst is running. Hayhurst was the nominee in 2006 and ran a great campaign. He is known for his fundraising ability. If this was 2006 or 2008 I would put this at lean D but Stutzman is too popular and the district too conservative. I know some say that the supporters of his convention opponents won’t show up but I don’t buy that argument, I just don’t. The one positive is that Stutzman primary supporters will probably show up greater in November and may still be mad enough their guy lost to Coats that they may vote Ellsworth.  

Prediction

Stutzman-56%

Hayhurst-44%

IN-04

Steve Buyer does not actually have a squeaky clean reputation but I have never particularly disliked him all the same. He is not seeking re-election this year and do to his wife’s illness. I believe his involvement in the frontier education foundation probably contributed but I want to believe he is retiring solely to spend more time with his wife who is not in good condition health wise. Term limited Indiana SoS Todd Rokita jump at the chance of an upgrade. He also considered a potential Senate run but passed. Rokita is not that bad, while he will be a mostly conservative vote he really does seem reasonable like Dick Lugar, who is also conservative but still has an independent streak. We have no chance here come November. Some dude David Sanders is our nominee.

Prediction

Rokita-66%

Sanders-34%

IN-05

Republicans are so freaking stupid. I am not talking ideology here but pure horse race politics. Dan Burton is the most corrupt politician in the state. He is a royal douche who, I feel, is way out of touch with his district and reality. He is an avid golfer who has actually missed votes to golf with lobbyists and goes on expensive golfing trips. He was also avid on spreading the Vincent Foster conspiracy during Clinton’s days. He has been in Washington too long and everyone hates him and knows he is an ineffective legislature. He was a prime target to be primaried but no, the Republicans fucked it up. About a gizillion people jumped at the chance to knock him out. Had the number of challengers been knocked to single digits he would have lost. But no, name recognition got him a pathetic 30 percent of the vote, barely enough to squeak by former Republican Party chair Luke Messer. 70% of Republicans voted against this sleaze bag but no he still gets a 15th term. Republicans/Teabaggers get your shit together next time! We nominated a real life teabagger Democrat. Yes a teabagging Democrat. I know a lot of people have wondered if the baggers and everyone will unite behind the Democrat, well it ain’t going to happen. Crawford is not a politician and has no skill and while I would rather have a teabagging Democrat than Burton it is not going to happen. Maybe next year they will do it right or maybe Burton will even retire. This is one of those rare moments when teabaggers and Democrats share a same goal.  

Prediction

Burton-67%

Crawford-33%

IN-06

Mike Pence is a savvy politician who has a real future in politics. I wish he was a Democrat because believe me he has skill. I am willing to bet that his next term in Congress will be his last, especially if we retain Congress. He will either run for Governor, Senate or President. The only thing that could get him to stay would be the possibility of being speaker someday but I highly doubt it happens. We have put up, once again, minister Barry Welsh. Barry is a good guy but does not have what it takes to make this race competitive.

Prediction

Pence- 72%

Welsh- 28%

IN-07

Andre Carson is the most progressive elected politician in Indiana. He is only the second Muslim currently in Congress. I really like him and I think he has a real future in the house. Perhaps he will even reach leadership someday. Carson won a special election back in 2008 when his grandmother, a really decent person and effective Congresswoman, passed away. He was elected to a full term by a large margin and will face perennial candidate Marvin Scott in November. Scott was the 2004 nominee for Senate against Evan Bayh, receiving 37% of the vote. He has ran for this seat several times, actually coming close in 1994. Carson has his job in Congress until he does not want it anymore. Scott will be crushed.

Prediction

Carson-65%

Scott-35%

IN-08

Brad Ellsworth is universally known and loved in Indiana’s eight congressional district, however he will not be running for Congress this year but will instead be running for US Senate. We got one of the best possible candidates we could have gotten in state representative Trent Van Haaften. Van Haaften is very popular. People seem to forget that when rating this district. Larry Buchson is the essence of generic R in my view. He offers nothing. He won a very unimpressive primary win, much less than I had predicted. The Tea Party does not like him and I am sure some of them will refuse to vote for him. Van Haaften has even reached out to some of the upset Tea Party members. I could see him getting a lot of Republican votes. No matter how you think the Senate race will turn out it is obvious that Ellsworth will clean up in his own district and that will likely provide coattails for Van Haaften. Fellow Indiana SSP user notanothersonofabush made a good point the other day about The GOP having other priorities and it is very true, the Republicans have there eyes set on the Senate seat and possibly knocking out Hill and this is not at the top of their to do list.  

Prediction

Van Haaften-53%

Buchson-47%

IN-09

Baron Hill is my Congressman and I have the utmost respect for him. He has represented the district well and I have always been fond of him. His only “easy” election was last year when the Republicans nominated retread Mike Sodrel again. Sodrel originally ran in 2002 and was defeated yet he successfully ran in 2004 but was defeated again by Hill in 2006 and very soundly again in 2008. You would think he got the message but no, he once again ran this year and he came in third place in the Republican primary. The Republicans nominated Bloomington attorney Todd Young. Young is nothing special but is a step above lunatic Travis Hankins and Sodrel. I mean at least Young has a higher education than a high school diploma for one. Young is not free of controversy though, he received money from Massey energy, a mining company which is now under scrutiny for unsafe conditions it puts it’s workers through. Hill did one thing uber stupid though. During a town hall one of these Republican activist with a video camera bated the Congressman and got what she wanted with him telling her that it is his town hall and he makes the rules. He is referring to his ban of video camera’s but it did not look good. It makes an excellent attack add. Like I said Hill has never really been given a free pass and this is shaping up to be a much more conservative year than he has faced in the past and the Republicans nominated someone much better than Sodrel. So it will certainly be no cake walk but Hill is used to tough elections and he knows how to handle himself. A lot of people say his vote on health care reform hurt him but I actually think he would be worse off had he voted against the legislation. He needs high turnout in Bloomington and he needs to keep progressives happy there. Also please do not take the poll taken by fire dog lake seriously. They were against the health care reform bill and I believe it was there tactic to poll tough districts to scare members of Congress out of voting for the legislation. The poll in question was highly questionable as it contained many gottcha questions and such. Mike Sodrel even released an internal poll showing him leading by one so it is pretty obvious that poll was highly inaccurate when a Republicans internal shows better news for Hill. Tough but Hill has it in him.

Prediction

Hill-50%

Young-46%

Others-4%

IN SoS

Incumbent Secretary of State Todd Rokita is term limited. The Democrats will nominate Vop Osili  or Tom McKenna for the job and the Republicans nominated Charlie White. I do not know the dynamics of the race, although I consistently receive emails from Vop and he sounds like a serious candidate. I do not know this race enough to make a prediction though, maybe my fellow Indiana SSP users could make the call.

Auditor and Treasurer

Berry and Mourdock are safe. I do not know a lot about the races but they are scandal free so they will probably be fine.

IN State House

We were supposed to lose the state house last year but we managed to cling onto it. I do not think we will be as lucky this year. We have many competitive elections and not a lot in our favor. I am predicting we lose but narrowly. I am going to predict that the Republicans get 52 seats and we get 48. I hope I am wrong.

State Senate

The Republicans will have no problems retaining the state senate.

Please let me know what you think. I welcome all feedback, positive or not. I would especially like to hear from my fellow Indiana SSP users. Thanks!!!!

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Yet another reflection on PA-12 and what it means for 2010

I sincerely hope that you are not getting sick over analysis of the special election to replace the late Jack Murtha.  Because I have taken some time to look over the race and what I think it means for 2010 as a whole.

When I first heard the tragic news of Congressman Murtha I felt sorrow for the loss of a veteran Congressman and ex Marine but at the same time I couldn’t help but think in the back of my mind about the possible loss of the seat. I was somewhat perplexed at the time on why we chose his former district director rather than an ex Governor or ex State Treasurer who both appeared at first glance to be far superior candidates than the highly unheard of Mark Critz.

    This race was instantly thought to be a highly competitive and would be a potential look ahead at the upcoming 2010 elections.  The district had the oddity of being the only one that was won by Democrat John Kerry in 2004 but lost by Barack Obama in 2008. While it appears to be Democrat on a local level it is obvious to me that the district is slowly trending away from us. I think Murtha would have likely retired in 2012 if he would not have passed away.

     Now to the fun part actually putting some analysis to this race. Critz ran a GREAT campaign. He was a fairly likeable candidate and was able to create a good message of being a populist with a clear independent streak in terms of social issues which played well with the many social conservatives in the district. He knew the district;  what the district was like and what he would have to do to get elected. He knew residents were upset at national Democrats and HCR and pretty much anything that had to do with Washington DC. He was able to all of this even when  national Republicans poured A LOT of money into this district.

    He was a GOOD candidate. Thank gosh someone was able to see it in him during the selection process. I think the overall lesson we can take from this to put towards the midterms is quality of candidate. I do believe a Democrat who knows what he or she is doing can win an R+5 district and a Republican a D+5. It’s all about the candidate. If a candidate knows what is popular and what is not in the district and knows how to play on these issues then they have a great shot of winning despite party label. For example I don’t think anyone honestly believed the Republicans had any shot whatsoever of winning Massachusetts when Ted Kennedy died. However little did they know the sacrificial lamb they put up turned out to be a great candidate who related to the people and knew his stuff while his opponent took a relaxing vacation  and probably measured the drapes for her Senate office. Brown won, and he won not because of hatred of the President or Democrats in general but rather the voters attraction to him, who they could relate to as being the outsider who drove a truck.

    Critz knew just how hard hit the district was on an economic level so he ran a campaign focused on job creation and  stressing his difference from national politicians which are all popular things in his district. It is all about the candidate and how they introduce themselves to the voter. If Democratic incumbents in tough districts talk about all the positive popular things they have done then I don’t think 2010 will be nearly as bad as everyone seems to think.  Run as someone who voted for tougher sanctions on Wall Street who has fought for job creation and economic development. Assuming they voted in favor of Health Care Reform talk about the positives it has and how it will help the people and paint the opponents of it as being pro insurance companies and against the highly popular aspects of reform like treating pre-existing conditions and letting children stay on the family policy until they are 28. If all candidate can do what Critz did and run a good campaign then we will do great in 2010.

    The point of this diary is a good candidate should not be written off just because it’s a tough district or state in a seemingly Republican year. We should not be scared of 2010 but excited. We have many great pickup opportunities and should not just do defense but a little offense as well. I know not every one can run a campaign similar to that of Brown and Critz but we should not write any race off just yet. Anything can happen after all. It just depends on the campaign someone runs.

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Louisville Mayoral Primary

     

    I wonder if I am the only one interested in the Louisville Mayoral election primary that is taking place on Tuesday. Jerry Abramson was eligible to run for another term yet shocked residents by giving up the title “Mayor for Life” to run for  Lieutenant Governor in the 2011 election. I thought it would be nice to give a brief overview of the candidates running before Tuesday’s primary.  

   I am a vocal supporter of Greg Fischer. He is a prominent local businessman who ran against Bruce Lunsford for the Democratic nomination for Senate in 2008. I honestly think he would be a good Mayor who could self finance a run for statewide office in the future. He comes off as very progressive to boot.

    If David Tandy gets the nomination I would probably vomit. He was the former Council President who, in my view, did a HORRIBLE job. I’m not too worried though because I think he will come in a solid third or possibly even fourth. Polling has indicated that Fischer is the front runner with Tandy coming close. However that was a long time ago.  

    Former Council President Jim King has been advertising constantly and I think he is making headway. His advertisements mainly include talk of job creation, his experience and attacks on front runner Fischer. Fischer has done adds responding to King’s attacks and talking about his record. I expect Fischer and King to run a close election. I have nothing against King’s record but I have not been impressed with his constant attacks on Fischer. I would still support King in November, but could not say the same about Tandy.

    Other candidates for the Democratic nomination include:

Tyler Allen- founder of 8664.

Connie Marshall- small business owner

Lisa Moxley- Barack Obama’s communication director for Kentucky

Shannon White- John Yarmuth’s finance director

    The Republicans have not put up any viable candidates in my view. The best they have is Hal Heiner who is a member of the City Council. The field will also include businessman Chris Thienemanm who unsuccessfully challenged Anne Northup for the Republican nomination in 2008 and small business owner Jonathan Robertson.  I feel that Heiner will win the primary by a fairly comfortable margin and will be crushed by either King or Fischer come November. Although a Republican victory is certainly not impossible.

    This election will certainly be interesting and I hope you will join me in supporting Greg Fischer on Tuesday. I hope this diary was well liked and if your view is different than mine please feel free to express it. Thanks!

Update

Like him or not Fischer is the Democratic nominee. Tandy comes in a distance second and King in third. I’m looking forward to November!

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