Though this was expected to be a boring year for Indiana politics, nothing can be farther from the truth. We had the last FU from Evan Bayh, the resignation of Mark Souder, Ellsworth making a plunge for Senate, and the worst candidate for Secretary of State candidate the Republicans have ever nominated. These predictions are much more pessimistic than they were months ago when I crafted my orginal diary. Times were different then and it looked as if things could still be turned around. They have not. But it will still not be a horrible night all the same. Enjoy!
IN Senate
When Evan Bayh announced just days before the filing date that he would not seek re-election I was furious. However his timing was actually brilliant. It ensured that none of the big name Republicans who would love the job like Pence or Daniels got on the ballot. Instead the Republicans got stuck with washed up former Senator Dan Coats. Coats has been gaff-tastic and is a seriously flawed candidate. While he had a bloody fight to get his parties nomination over a bunch of nobodies we quietly nominated top tier candidate Congressman Brad Ellsworth. That is what this race looked like when the announcement first happened however while his profile is much better than Coats he has run a horrible campaign. He was clearly not ready for statewide. Honestly even had he run an excellent one the national mood would have kept him down. I take it as a slight comfort that Coats will probably serve at max two terms. Maybe he’ll even get bagged to death in 2016, but I doubt it. Chances are he will keep a low profile, be a solid R vote and get re-elected. I’m not sure what is next for Ellsworth, he could go for Congress or Senate next year or maybe even LG. I do not know what he will do. Any here is my predict.
Prediction
Coats-54%
Ellsworth -43%
Libeterian-3%
IN-01
Pete Visclosky disgusts me. He is corrupt and genuinely slimy if you get my drift. I have been hoping for a primary challenge for years but to no prevail. No one dare goes against him as it would be the last thing they ever did in politics. Yes this is one of “those district”. It would be nice for him to just retire and take a cozy lobbying job yet he loves Washington too much and has his job as long as he wants it. In fact the Washington Post declared him the safest Democratic Congressman. He is progressive enough (although the sleaze-ball voted against wall street regulation) however he is very corrupt. Trust me the day will come when his ways catches up to him and he is forced out in disgrace. He is pretty much guaranteed a 14th term to Congress though because the Republicans have yet again nominated a perennial candidate who has no chance of winning. He has ran in every race since 2002. So don’t expect a William Jefferson set of events to happen because trust me Mark Leyva is no Joseph Cao. I just hope next cycle he is booted out in the primary. This guy is an embarrassment and trust me a primary here would be the best thing possible for us. Still the area is so corrupt we would probably not get a whole lot better.
Prediction
Visclosky-67%
Leyva-33%
(Not sure if there are any third parties running. If so give the Lib 2 and take one away from Visclosky and Leyva respectfully)
IN-02
Indiana’s second CD has a Republican tilt to it but I think Donnelly will win by a solid enough margin all the same. In 08 he garnered 70% of the vote. Republicans are smart! This year Republicans nominated a woman who actually goes by Wacky Jackie (although we just nominated Alvin freaking Greene so we probably shouldn’t talk). Wolarski is a state representative. Wolarski has run a decent campaign and do to the lean of the district it will be somewhat close. The most recent poll commissioned by Wish TV had Donnelly leading by five and Jackie’s internals supposedly has Donnelly leading by four.
Prediction
Donnelly-53%
Wolarski-47%
IN-03
I have never been fond of Mark Souder. He has always came off as an ass to me. During his time in Washington he always fought for family values, about as social of conservative as they come. Yeah Mark Souder resigned after admitting to having an affair with a staffer, who ironically made a tape with him about abstinence only sex ed. You are supposed to expect anything in Congress but I did not expect that. None the less I was glad he resigned because I was plain and simply glad to see him away from Washington. He had a somewhat close primary to a rich teabagging car dealer owner. However right after all of the affair shit broke and he resigned. So the Republicans chose a nominee at a convention of delegates. Not surprisingly they chose state senator Marlin Stutzman who ran a very impressive campaign against former Senator and lobbyist Dan Coats. Personally I think Stutzman would have been stronger than Coats but all the same this is a nice parting gift for Stutzman who defeated a hullabaloo of candidates at the convention. I have nothing against Stutzman, while I disagree with him ideology he seems like a nice guy and will be much better than Souder at any rate. We have a great candidate in the district and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Former city councilman Tom Hayhurst is running. Hayhurst was the nominee in 2006 and ran a great campaign. He is known for his fundraising ability. If this was 2006 or 2008 I would put this at lean D but Stutzman is too popular and the district too conservative. I know some say that the supporters of his convention opponents won’t show up but I don’t buy that argument, I just don’t.
Prediction
Stutzman-59%
Hayhurst-41%
IN-04
Steve Buyer does not actually have a squeaky clean reputation but I have never particularly disliked him all the same. He is not seeking re-election this year and do to his wife’s illness. I believe his involvement in the frontier education foundation probably contributed but I want to believe he is retiring solely to spend more time with his wife who is not in good condition health wise. Term limited Indiana SoS Todd Rokita jump at the chance of an upgrade. He also considered a potential Senate run but passed. Rokita is not that bad, while he will be a mostly conservative vote he really does seem reasonable like Dick Lugar, who is also conservative but still has an independent streak. We have no chance here come November. Some dude David Sanders is our nominee.
Prediction
Rokita-66%
Sanders-34%
IN-05
Republicans are so freaking stupid. I am not talking ideology here but pure horse race politics. Dan Burton is the most corrupt politician in the state. He is a royal douche who, I feel, is way out of touch with his district and reality. He is an avid golfer who has actually missed votes to golf with lobbyists and goes on expensive golfing trips. He was also avid on spreading the Vincent Foster conspiracy during Clinton’s days. He has been in Washington too long and everyone hates him and knows he is an ineffective legislature. He was a prime target to be primaried but no, the Republicans fucked it up. About a gazillion people jumped at the chance to knock him out. Had the number of challengers been knocked to single digits he would have lost. But no, name recognition got him a pathetic 30 percent of the vote, barely enough to squeak by former Republican Party chair Luke Messer. 70% of Republicans voted against this sleaze bag but no he still gets a 15th term. Republicans/Teabaggers get your shit together next time! We nominated a real life teabagger Democrat. Yes a teabagging Democrat. I know a lot of people have wondered if the baggers and everyone will unite behind the Democrat, well it ain’t going to happen. Crawford is not a politician and has no skill and while I would rather have a teabagging Democrat than Burton it is not going to happen. Maybe next year they will do it right or maybe Burton will even retire. This is one of those rare moments when teabaggers and Democrats share a same goal.
Prediction
Burton-65%
Crawford-24%
Others-11%
IN-06
Mike Pence is a savvy politician who has a real future in politics. I wish he was a Democrat because believe me he has skill. I am willing to bet that his next term in Congress will be his last, especially. He will either run for Governor, Senate or President. The only thing that could get him to stay would be the possibility of being speaker someday but I highly doubt it happens. We have put up, once again, minister Barry Welsh. Barry is a good guy but does not have what it takes to make this race competitive.
Prediction
Pence- 72%
Welsh- 28%
IN-07
Andre Carson is the most progressive elected politician in Indiana. He is only the second Muslim currently in Congress. I really like him, though some do not. Carson won a special election back in 2008 when his grandmother, a really decent person and effective Congresswoman, passed away. He was elected to a full term by a large margin and will face perennial candidate Marvin Scott in November. Scott was the 2004 nominee for Senate against Evan Bayh, receiving 37% of the vote. He has ran for this seat several times, actually coming close in 1994. The district is fairly liberal but has some conservative areas to it. Carson actually faced a close election during his original run. He will survive though, no question. The latest Wish TV poll had him at 50 and Scott at 37.
Prediction
Carson-57%
Scott-43%
IN-08
Brad Ellsworth is universally known and loved in Indiana’s eight congressional district, however he will not be running for Congress this year but will instead be running for US Senate. We got state representative Trent Van Haaften. Van Haaften is fairly popular. Larry Buchson is the essence of generic R in my view. He won a very unimpressive primary win, much less than I had predicted. The Tea Party is not that fond of him, though they are not of Coats but they are sucking up to vote for him and will probably do the same for Buchson. The national parties have all packed up and left, polls (albeit internal) showing a Republican win here. Ellsworth will probably win here but will not provide coattails.
Prediction
Buchson- 58%
Van Haaften- 42%
IN-09
Baron Hill is my Congressman and I have the utmost respect for him. He has represented the district well and I have always been fond of him. His only “easy” election was last year when the Republicans nominated retread Mike Sodrel again. Sodrel originally ran in 2002 and was defeated yet he successfully ran in 2004 but was defeated again by Hill in 2006 and very soundly again in 2008. You would think he got the message but no, he once again ran this year and he came in third place in the Republican primary. The Republicans nominated Bloomington attorney Todd Young. Young is nothing special but is a step above lunatic Travis Hankins and Sodrel. I mean at least Young has a higher education than a high school diploma for one. Hill did one thing uber stupid though. During a town hall one of these Republican activist with a video camera bated the Congressman and got what she wanted with him telling her that it is his town hall and he makes the rules. He is referring to his ban of video camera’s but it did not look good. It was used in some attack ads but was not as much as I thought Young would use it. Like I said Hill has never really been given a free pass and this is shaping up to be a much more conservative year than he has faced in the past and the Republicans nominated someone much better than Sodrel. So it will certainly be no cake walk but Hill is used to tough elections and he knows how to handle himself. Hill has walked the district like he did in his legendary Senate run against Dan Coats. He has run the best campaign he has ever run in my view. He has been up on the air a lot and so have the DCCC. Though national parties have spent more against Hill he has still been up a lot. Oh and yes Hill has yet to trail in a poll against Young. Today, after much wait we have seen the first publicly released poll of this district showing Hill leading 46-44. Also reportedly Hill’s internals also have this a two point race. Hill has been running a progressive campaign, not hiding his votes on HCR or cap and trade. He boasted of these things during the debates. I have never been more proud and my gut says Hill survives, though I’ll admit it could go either way.
Prediction
Hill-49%
Young- 46%
Others-5%
IN SoS
Incumbent Secretary of State Todd Rokita is term limited. The Democrats nominated Vop Osili over Tom McKenna for the job and the Republicans nominated Charlie White. White is the worst candidate the state Republicans have ever nominated. In fact he is currently under investigation and I have heard he may be forced to step down if he does win. Still no one cares about SoS. It is very low profile and he will get by do the R by his name. Polls have him in the lead and he will likely win. Ugh.
White-53
Osili-45
Libetarian-2
Auditor and Treasurer
Berry and Mourdock are safe. They are both facing 28 year old first time candidates. Though I am highly impressed with Mourdock’s opponent who is a Rhodes Scholar. I will probably vote for Berry for Auditor. They will both win in the mid sixties.
IN State House
We were supposed to lose the state house last year but we managed to cling onto it. I do not think we will be as lucky this year. We have many competitive elections and not a lot in our favor. I am predicting we lose it. I am going to predict that the Republicans get 54 seats and we get 46. I hope I am wrong.
State Senate
The Republicans will have no problems retaining the state senate.
Please let me know what you think. I welcome all feedback, positive or not. I would especially like to hear from my fellow Indiana SSP users. Thanks!!!!
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I agree with your margins and everything. Though I might give an extra 1-2% to Hill. It’ll be close, but not that close.
I’m instead going to use this space to ask, as a fellow Hoosier, what do you think the GOP does with Hill if he survives, they win IN-08, and they control redistricting – all of which seem likely? I mean, Buschon is so useless that if they dump Bloomington into the 8th he’ll probably lose, and Hill might still win anyway. They can’t put Bloomington into the 6th or it might flip, especially as an open seat. Unless they put Bloomington into the 4th and just trust that the Republican vote (esp. in Hendricks and Boone counties) will be enough to dilute the Bloomington and Lafayette vote, but that might make the 4th just liberal enough that it could elect a Blue Dog in a good Democratic year. And would royally piss off Bloomington, which has enough clout in the State Leg because of IU that it might be able to demand a Democratic representative. (Unless they draw a spaghetti district represented by Carson taking in parts of Marion and Monroe counties that would be absolutely ridiculous)
Or they could just leave things the way they are and hope they can find a top-tier candidate to run against Hill in the district as currently drawn.
Saving Donnelly and Hill is plenty satisfying enough for me from your state this year. At least that would make Indiana NOT responsible for our losing the House if we lose it.
I would love if Virginia could go in tandem with you and save everyone but Nye!
I think your outcomes and their corresponding numbers look very solid in my opinion. Great analysis as well. My election night will be much more bearable if Donnelly and Hill win, and I will be elated if the Democrats can retain the State House by some miracle.
Although I think Hill/Young is going to be a little closer, and I’m not sure which one will be ahead at the end.
Charlie White is a sleazeball. As for Rokita, after his office punted on what their investigation of the White affair had found (Suffice to say, they did a lot of hard work on the investigation, but they just don’t feel it should be released until after the election), I have no respect for the man. I’m amazed to see a guy who has talked so much about secure elections and combating voting fraud make such a transparent move to help out his buddy from poli sci in college.
I actually think our slate for statewide candidates was fantastic this year. I’ve even warmed up to Osili. It’s too bad none of them are going to win.
I wish Hayhurst had ran in 2008 instead.
the subject of IN I made about 4 hours worth of calls tonight. First time I phone banked this year (minus Coakley, ugh). I’ll probably do it at least 2 more times and I may go door to door this weekend, even though I hate it. I might see Hill this weekend, he’s doing an RV tour, I think hitting every county. NO ONE knew anything about Ellsworth. Seriously, every call I made when I mentioned Ellsworth no one had a clue, not one person. Hill got pretty good reviews. People were actually pretty nice tonight, I got one “FU” and one “I’ll vote anything but Democrat” but besides that everyone was very nice and receptive. It was probably my best experience phone banking. I’ll say this, Hill has the conservadem base. I talked to one person who told me he hated Obama and HCR but that “Young is just too extreme” and “Hill is the lesser of two evils”. Hill needs conservadems like them and I think he has most of them. I hope so at least
Is Daniels going to try to pack one D district in Southern Indiana assuming Hill and Buschon wins? (which I think is what happens) Will he try to dismantle IN-02?
I’m thinking 65-35.