It’s kind of foolish making predictions THIS early. But hey I have some spare time on my hands so I figured why not. This is very far out and a million things can and will change. But I want to go ahead and create some predictions for how I think things are going right now. This will be posted on Swing State Project and Red Racing Horses. Enjoy!
Arizona- First I would like to say I’m a fully biased Gabby Giffords fan and was before her shooting. In fact the night before I was talking her up as the first female President on the Swing State Project and I fully believe she would have ran had she not been shot. With Kyl out it makes it slightly more competitive but I would not put money on it as Flake is a strong candidate whose main issue is probably getting through a Republican primary. I do wonder if his opposition to Arizona’s anti immigration law could make him vulnerable.
Flake-57
Goddard-43
2012 will be a better year for dems than 2010 so I slightly upped Goddard’s 2010 numbers but definitely took into account that he is facing a much better candidate than Brewer.
Giffords-54
Flake-46
If and a BIG if Giffords fully recovers and is interested in the Senate then I really have trouble seeing her losing, even to Flake. She is a household name, America’s hero right now. With this I still recognize Flake’s strength and the R tilt of the state and make it slightly competitive. All of this being said I do not think she should be focusing on politics right now and we still do not even know if she will be able to return to Congress. So a Senate run is probably not likely.
Flake- 56
Napolitano-44
In the unlikely event that former Governor Napolitano decides to return to Arizona I seriously doubt she wins. She left unpopular and actually polled slightly worse than Goddard according to PPP. That said she is a former Governor and I’m sure she had some friends and could put together a decent operation. But I do not see her winning.
Hayworth- 49
Goddard- 51
Hayworth- 42
Giffords- 58
Hayworth- 48
Napolitano-52
In the very lucky (for dems) event that Hayworth somehow wins the Republican nomination I think we will win this seat. It will be close but I can’t see him winning. He trailed Glassman in hypothetical matchups in 2010 no way he would beat a serious candidate in a better year.
California- I can’t see a Republican winning Cali unless a serious catastrophic scandal emerged. With Feinstein I think she gets above 60 without her I think dems win in the mid to high fifties.
Feinstein- 58
Whitman-42
Feinstein- 58
Issa- 42
Feinstein-62
Generic R- 38
I fully expect the third option to be the case. I do not think a big name will enter, probably an assemblyman or former state senator or someone of that nature.
Generic D-55
Whitman-45
Generic D-55
Issa-45
Generic D-57
Generic R-43
I put generic D because there are about a billion names that could go there, all high profile. Again I don’t think any high profile names will enter but maybe a slightly better than a state assembly or state senator runs like Cooley or the former LG. But barring a scandal I can’t see victory for team red here.
Connecticut- In the even that Jodi Rell runs then it will be slightly competitive but with a dem tilt. Why McMahon is thinking of running despite her loss in a great year last year is beyond me. Ok, in a 3 way race she could get an opening but in a two way with Murphy with Obama at the top she is just giving her money away. If by some very horrible for team blue circumstance the ex SoS wins the nod then it becomes yucky but I think she has the edge.
Murphy-55
McMahon-45
Murphy-51
Rell-49
Murphy- 57
Some Dude- 43
Bysiewicz-52
McMahon-48
Bysiewicz- 46
Rell-54
Bysiewicz- 53
Some Dude-47
For gosh sakes get a job in the private sector Susan!
Delaware- Yeah with Biden leading the ticket this isn’t interesting. Unless O’Donnell runs, then it is just fun to watch. Carper had sparked some retirement rumors but has now decided to run for re-election. This is safe even if he changes his mind.
Carper-64
O’Donnell-36
Carper-67
Some Dude-33
Yes I have it as slightly more competitive with O’Donnell because she would actually get money and is well known. She did get 40 percent in 2010 so I think my number is about accurate, though it might be a tad generous.
Florida- Gosh we can never have a non eventful campaign in the place old people go to die state. Just kidding, no offense old folks including my Florida bound parents. It is Florida so it will be competitive. Mike Haridopolos has really showed his chops as a great fundraiser and he will prove a challenge should he be the nominee. First I think he will have to get through his primary. I think he scares away LeMieux, just a hunch, I know he has been sounding candidate-ish but offers nothing and I do not think he could win the nomination. I do think Mack will run however. I do not know how a primary goes between the two, I really don’t. I do fear H more than Mack. My worst fear is that Nelson gets scared and retires but he doesn’t seem interested in pursuing that course of action but if he did then it would be awful news for team blue.
Nelson-52
Haridopolos-48
Nelson-53
Mack-47
Nelson-56
LeMieux-44
Haridopolos is the strongest followed by Mack and then the all around meh LeMieux.
Hawaii- This is fools gold for Republicans. Hawaii is not going red in 2012, I don’t care if Lingle runs or not. First off to quash the common misconception, Lingle is not popular in Hawaii anymore. She is not winning anything anymore. She left office with at best tepid approvals. This is Obama nation, they love the guy, this is his birth place, and he will clean up here. In an open seat or with Akaka this is safe dem. The best the Republicans can hope for here is a Joe Lieberman clone winning the Dem nod. I am of course talking about Case. But that being said Case couldn’t even win a CD, so that may say something about his future statewide.
Akaka-63
Lingle-37
Akaka-65
Djou-35
Akaka-69
Some Dude-31
Case- 59
Lingle- 41
Case- 61
Djou- 39
Case-64
Some Dude-36
Any Other Dem besides Case or Hannemann (either rep, AG, LG etc..)- 60
Lingle-40
AOD- 63
Djou-37
AOD- 66
Some Dude-34
Yawn….
Indiana- This will be a fun race. I love Lugar, he is a great Senator with great constituent services and is a genuinely nice guy. He is conservative but I can look past that and look at all the good he has done my state. But I can understand Republicans wanting to primary him. He has been anti tea party acting but he tells it like he sees it. It is hard to say how the primary is going to go right now. I have seen no polling and it is hard to peg it without polling. I say this because while his occasional independent streaks will hurt him he has built up a lot of good will with Republicans over the years. I personally know no Republicans that want to see him lose. All of this said I think he is definitely vulnerable and in a two way race he will probably lose I think. Like I said it is hard to say this early. I do not get all the love for Delph, he is a some dude without much of a profile. His wikipedia page is literally one sentence long. Everyone is comparing him to Stutzman, I really don’t think it is an apt comparison. I have talked to a lot of people who know state politics and know it well and no one really has much to say about him. Maybe he’ll prove me wrong but I don’t think he’ll go very far, probably ten percent, it could be enough to save Lugar though. As for the dems Donnelly will either run for this or Governor. I think he is leaning towards Senate as Mourdock is an easier opponent than Pence. Ellsworth is also thinking of a run for either this or Governor. I think he is leaning towards Governor. Either one would be competitive against Mourdock, but neither would win. Neither would have a chance in hell against Lugar and trust me if it wasn’t clear Lugar could lose the nomination neither would be interested in a run.
Lugar-68
Donnelly-32
Lugar- 67
Ellsworth-33
Lugar has no trouble should he win the nomination. He’s a shoo in.
Mourdock- 53
Donnelly-47
Mourdock- 53
Ellsworth- 47
Indiana is not a far right state, it is center right and this would be competitive without Lugar. However in the end I do not see a dem winning as I do not think Obama will win without a Palin as the nominee. I do not want to make a prediction for Delph, it would be too hard at this point.
Maine- Team blue is praying Snowe gets knocked out in a primary. I think it can happen. If Mike Castle, who was more conservative than Snowe can lose to Christine O’Donnell then I suspect Snowe will be vulnerable. Her re-elects are god awful, PPP finds her losing to a “more conservative challenger” 63-29. I don’t know much about this tea party dude running against her but if he gets national support then I could see him winning. I suspect if Snowe looks DOA then dems will run Michaud or Culter, who is a dem but didn’t want to run in the primary last year. If Snowe wins the nod then its safe R, if she doesn’t then likely to safe D.
Snowe-65
Michaud-35
Snowe- 66
Culter-34
Snowe-70
Some Dude-30
“more conservative challenger”- 38
Michaud- 62
MCC- 39
Culter-61
MCC- 42
Dem some dude-58
Safe R with Snowe, close to safe D without her.
Maryland- Safe Dem, end of story. There is a small chance do to age that Cardin retires but I seriously doubt it. With or without him it is safe. I actually wouldn’t mind seeing him call it quits as I think LG Brown would be a likely candidate and I love the guy. I can’t see any serious Republicans interested in a run.
Cardin-66
Some Dude-34
Generic D-62
Some Dude-38
Yawn…
Massachusetts- This is the hardest thing to predict, period. Brown is, at the current moment, very popular. But that can change. We can’t forgot that Mass is D+12 but we can’t also forget that Brown has a shit load of cash and is uber popular. I have gone back and forth but in the end I predict he narrowly hangs on. It is a hard prediction and I do not think Republicans should hold it for granted, it will be competitive even if it looks safe now.
Brown-51
Generic D- 49
I’m not going to look at names as there are too many to list and I do not know who the hell is running or not.
Michigan- This one troubles me. I’m actually hoping Stabenow retires, her numbers suck and a fresh face could actually be better. But Obama should have no trouble carrying Michigan and he will carry Stabenow over. Though dems will spend much needed money here.
Stabenow- 53
Hoekstra-47
Stabenow- 54
Land-46
Stabenow- 52
Anuzis-48
I am taking GOPVOTER’s/JamesNOLA’s word that Anuzis is a good candidate. I do not think too much of Land, she adds little and I doubt she even runs.
Minnesota- Nothing to see here. Safe Dem. Klobuchar is uber popular and no repub in their right mind would challenge her with a much more winnable seat only two years away. I think Bachmann is more interested in a run for prez and if she does run for this she gets crushed.
Klobuchar-66
Generic R- 34
Klobuchar-63
Bachmann-37
Bachmann brings in a hell of a lot of money than generic R but she is much more polarizing than generic R so she only does marginally better.
Mississippi- Yawn.
Wicker-68
Generic D-32
Yawn.
Missouri- Not good folks (well dem folks that is). I do not feel good about this one at all. Missouri has moved very far to the right and I can’t see McCaskill winning. Though Steeleman is an extremely weak candidate I think she has the edge. Obama did not win here in 08 and I can’t see him doing it now unless Palin is the nominee. Of course I think McCaskill outperforms Obama but not by enough.
Steeleeman-53
McCaskill-47
Martin-51
McCaskill-49
I think Martin does worse as he is not as known. I think a more serious candidate would outperform Steeleman but like I said I still give her the edge. I did not list anyone else as I can’t see them running.
Montana- I heart Jon Tester but I like horse race stuff enough to know he does not stand much of a chance. One thing that gives me hope is the smartest person I know on the internet (user 270 I think) has hope for him and that gives me hope. Seriously 270 you’re a genius. Rehberg also does seem like someone with skeletons in his closets. However seeing what I know now I can’t see victory here.
Rehberg-54
Tester-46
Not a blowout but still not good.
Nebraska- I know its still early but unless Nelson gets blessed with a NV-2010 set of events then he is vaminos.
Brunning-62
Nelson-38
Some Dude R- 57
Nelson-43
Brunning wins Boozman style and if one of the random dude wins the R nod then they also win the general but not by the same margin.
Nevada- As simple as this: With Ensign it’s a pickup with Heller its an R hold. I suspect Ensign will bow out and Heller wins no trouble. But hey stranger things have happened.
Berkley- 56
Ensign-44
Heller-54
Berkley-46
Berkley- 58
Angle- 42.
Berkley keeps it close no matter what but with Heller she doesn’t pull it out.
New Jersey- Jersey is one of those states that just produce close elections. Menendez has crappy numbers but with Obama on the ticket it should carry him over.
Menendez- 52
Kean-48
Menendez-54
Guadagno-46
Menendez-57
Dobbs-43
Menendez-55
Some Dude-45
Kean is the most fearful but I think team blue still keeps this even with him though they will have to sweat and spend much needed resources.
New Mexico- This one is still Lean D in my book. This is actually good news for team blue, I would rather defend it with Obama leading the ticket than during a midterm with Martinez as the R challenger. I’ve got a soft spot for Heinrich but any dem will do. The thing that could kill team blue that we have to watch out for is a divisive crowded primary. We need to get one candidate and leave it be. Wilson is a great get for team red if she runs but I still do not think she wins.
Heinrich-54
Wilson-46
Lujan-52
Wilson-48
Balderas-53
Wilson- 47
I do not think any R of significance besides Wilson might run. Even if Johnson runs I can’t see him winning the R nod. Maybe I’m biased since I like him but I think Heinrich is the strongest but Balderas and Lujan would also win.
New York- Yawn…..
Gillibrand- 65
Some Dude-35
Yawn.
North Dakota- I wish Conrad would have took one for the team but there is no guarantee he would have even won. I hate to sound like a downer but this is not going to happen for team blue.
Some Dude R-66
Some Dude D- 34
I really do not know a lot about the candidates. I doubt dems get a top tier candidate like the ex AG or Pomeroy and I also doubt the repubs get a great prize either besides the PSC.
Ohio- Tough call. I like Brown and it probably reflects in my rating. Brown and Obama will get the troops out in high numbers and I think Brown will do better than Obama by at least 4 points. Maybe I’m wrong, its hard to tell just yet.
Brown-52
Mandel-48
Brown-51
Hunsted-49
Brown-50
Taylor-50
Brown-56
Carey-44
Taylor is the strongest but Brown squeaks it out. I am a Drew Carey fan but should he run I can’t see him winning the nod or the GE. Though if he let voters play blinco…..
Pennsylvania- The golden Casey name= victory but by what margin? PA turned against team blue last cycle and while not to the point of no possible return I still think Casey will have a mildly competitive race. Though I of course am not pessimistic enough to think he will lose barring a scandal.
Casey-56
Any Congressman-44
Casey-59
Some Dude-41
So while it is single digit competitive Casey still outperforms Obama by a decent margin and wins close to double digits. I doubt any congress critters are interested. I can’t think of any other serious candidates, maybe the LG- though I’ve heard nothing mentioned about him running.
Rhode Island- For some reason this race has gotten a lot of attention. I haven’t the clue why. You have a scandal free popular incumbent in a liberal state. Team red really doesn’t have that much to offer. The much hyped 2010 nominee has already declined and the ex Governor left office with meh numbers. If team blue loses Rhode Island or it is even a single digit race then it will be a crappy night.
Whitehouse- 60
Carcieri-40
Whitehouse-64
Some Dude-36
Barring a scandal I just can’t see this turning into something.
Tennessee- In the unlikely event that uber popular former Governor Brendeson runs then we have a race on our hands. If not then yawn. Here is what I predict happens. Corker gets a primary from a couple some dudes and wins but it’s a meh win but that said he still wins comfy in the GE. Now if Brendeson runs then I think he makes a close race but in the end I do not see him winning as a dem in Tennessee for a federal office. He has good numbers now but just like with Manchin they drop during the course of the campaign.
Corker- 54
Brendeson- 46
Corker-65
Some Dude-35
Brendeson-51
More Conservative Challenger- 49
More Conservative Challenger-58
Some Dude-42
The only path for a Brendeson victory is if there is a god awful R primary and Corker goes down. Even then it is a tough race. I will go ahead and predict no dem of importance challenges Corker.
Texas- Yawn… The real action here is in the primary.
R-65
D-35
I hope it is Leppert or Dewhurst at least.
Utah- Yawn…. Only slightly competitive if Matheson runs but I think he’ll stick with a CD even if it is higher R. I do wonder if Hatch will be the nominee, it looks doubtful. Though he has tacked more to the right ala McCain but I do not know if it will be enough.
Hatch-64
Matheson-36
Hatch-75
Some Dude-25
Chaffetz-58
Matheson-42
Chaffetz-67
Some Dude-33
Matheson would be smart to stick to Congress or if he must then go for Governor. I doubt he runs unless he is truly sick of Congress and wants to go out running for Senate, if that makes sense.
Vermont- Yawn…
Sanders-66
Salmon-34
Yawn….
Virginia- I really wish Webb would have taken one for the team but alas the heart wants what it wants. The question on everyone’s mind is what about Kaine? I am an avid Frasier fan and will use the episode “No Sex Please, were skittish” as an example of this race. Team blue is current facing a similar flight of ” No Senate run Please, I’m skittish.” But just as Frasier gets his “amore” I think VA dems will get there Kaine. With Kaine I think it team blue keeps it without it him it is hard but not impossible. I do think people should recognize the full potential of Tom Periello, there were I think 5 dems who voted for all of the major dem proposals in R+ districts and held on and he darn near won in an R+5 McCain district. He did this while campaigning on health care and the stimulus against a moderate well funded serious challenger and coming so close is just amazing. He also raised a shit load of money. Yes he is a serious candidate and if Kaine whimps out then he should be the dem nominee and yes I think he can win, though it will be close.
Kaine- 53
Allen-47
Allen- 50
Periello-50
Notice before that I said could, at the current time I’ll give the edge to Webb, but to my Republican friends I still wouldn’t get too confident if Kaine passes, it is still a tossup.
Washington- If Murray won in a midterm then Cantwell should be fine.
Cantwell- 58
Some Dude- 42
It narrows if a serious challenger enters but I can’t see that happening, all the attention will likely be on the Governors race.
West Virginia- This one gets a ton of talk but I can’t see Manchin losing. Yes Obama leading the ticket hurts but not enough. If SMC runs for anything (I think she stays in Congress forever) it will be Governor. She could have had a much easier race last time around and kept her CD but she passed. This is lean to likely dem in my book.
Manchin-56
Moore-Capito-44
Manchin-59
Ireland-41
Manchin-65
Some Dude-35
While I recognize SMC is strong I do not think she is as strong as has been implied. Her numbers are high enough now but give it a serious campaign and they will become more normal.
Wisconsin- Only competitive if Kohl (great store FYI) calls it quits. Even then I give the edge to team blue minus Ryan. Obama should win WI and if he does then the dem nominee for Senate will as well. I can’t see a serious candidate running against Kohl.
Kohl- 65
Some Dude-35
Kind-53
Van Hollen-47
Ryan-52
Kind-48
Feingold-51
Van Hollen-49
Ryan-53
Feingold-47
If Kohl runs then he will just face some dude but if he doesn’t then a good R will undoubtedly run. I think Ryan would have the edge in an open seat but I also think there is a greater chance that I run than Ryan.
Wyoming-Yawn… He could face a primary for something but team blue isn’t winning.
R-67
D-33
Yawn…
So there you have, purely speculative, very early Senate projections. If I had to guess my Republican friends will think I’m too optimistic while my Democratic friends will think I’m too pessimistic. Meh, I am what I am. I would love to get some feedback. Remember this is uber early and a million things can and will happen to affect these ratings. I hope you enjoyed my diary. Thanks!
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Maybe down 2-3 seats but it will no doubt change many times before the votes are counted.
Ed Case didn’t run in his old congressional district. He represented the 2nd in Congress, and ran for the 1st. I think it’s more likely one of Hawaii’s current rep’s would be the nominee, but I agree with you on your rating. I don’t think Ryan would be as strong a challenger as you say in Wisconsin, he seems like a guy that’s good in a one-on-one or friendly setting like a TV interview or a debate but wouldn’t do well in a statewide campaign. Just my two cents.
I don’t know why anyone would think Anuzis would be a strong nominee. I usually trust GOPVOTER’s instincts, but I cannot see Anuzis getting more then 45% of the vote at best. Just in a primary his tenure as state party chair, his constant runs for RNC chair and his questionable judgment in “certain” matters would all weigh against him; in a general election during a presidential year I don’t see how he wins:
http://www.mlive.com/news/detr…
There are better, less meh-ish candidates Tea Partiers could line up behind (a Justin Amash draft effort, maybe?) and lots of vanilla unoffensive Dino Rossi-clones who could run a good respectable 52-48 race. Don’t mean to sound like an opposition researcher, but Anuzis is NOT going to beat Stabenow, but if someone disagrees please say why. My guess; some millionaire businessman who can self-fund and keep Stabenow on her toes and, if Repubs are lucky and its a terrible year for Dems pull a Ron Johnson, but the real right-wing money in Michigan should, and will, go towards protecting gains the party made after redistricting.
with your use of the word “uberpopular” with Scott Brown. Sure he’s well-liked (in the 50’s), but that is not uberpopular (which would be over 60 and beyond).
I happen to think Lingle probably begins with a FLOOR in the low-40s. Akaka’s perhaps popular with Democrats, but he has a reputation for kinda being one of the most useless U.S. Senators out there. I could see Independents lining-up behind Lingle. And, if Ed Case jumps in, that’s when Lingle starts siphoning-off Democrats.
Tester and McCaskill will win. Rehburg has baggage to bite him a million times. For instance, last year, he SUED some MT firefighters for not putting out a grass fire on his property fast enough for his liking.
McCaskill has great strength. She’s consistent and stays on message. Also, remember that internal Graves released some time ago before declining to run? It showed her at 48/44 over him. The only GOPer who could very likely beat McCaskill is Talent and he’s out.
Right now, I think we will lose ND and NE. We probably have (at best) a 10% chance at ND and 20% in NE, but that is mostly geared at potential GOP primary screwups (cough Delaware 2010, cough). MT and MO could go either way, but both Tester and McCaskill are decent fits for their states. I’m cautiously optimistic about NM and NJ, and I feel pretty good about MI and CT. I’m not that worried about VA…if Allen is nominated by the GOP, we are in good shape.
I think we have an outside shot at NV. Ensign might be unpopular, but this could be a nasty primary battle that will wound the victor. IN MA, Scott Brown may be popular, but so was Lincoln Chafee in RI a few years ago. Unfortunately for Team Blue, Brown doesn’t have the George W. Bush shadow to defend.
I’m usually one that is overly optimistic, but I’m not liking our chances in 2012. I see us losing 3-5 of our currently held seats while only gaining 1 or 2 from the Republicans. Right now, if someone promised that we would lose (net) 2 seats in 2012, I’d take it.
Damn, I hate being pessimistic…
is resultant of gazing through the lens of 2010.
Besides, I don’t think Ryan (WI) has the edge. Obama has the edge here according to polls, and it’s unlikely that such ticket-splitting would take place. And we don’t even know if Ryan is that popular statewide.
Some of your numbers don’t make sense. Why would McMahon lose by ten against Murphy when voters rejected her in a far better year for Republicans than 2012 is likely to be by 12? I get why you think Murdock would win, but why would the potential Democrats get so close in the first place? If they end up that close, why couldn’t they get over the hump? Obama will almost certainly contest the state unless Daniels is the nominee, and he should provide them with a better base than they’d otherwise have. Perhaps I am just taking your numbers way too literally.
Anyway, like I indicated before, I think you are being far too negative. It wouldn’t surprise me if some of the more targeted incumbents like McCaskill lose, but that’s far from clear now. You acknowledged that, of course, but still, none of them are ridden in scandal. All of them seem reasonably popular, or at least not particularly unpopular. All of them seem like good ideological fits for their states. All of them are likely to have a strong presidential campaign backing them up. All of them are incumbents, so they have the advantages that their status brings, and all of them could easily benefit from ticket splitting that is pretty damn common. And perhaps most importantly, all of them are likely to face opponents that are easily defined as being way out of the mainstream.
I could say a lot about Ben Nelson’s seat, any of the open seats, or the seat(s) where the Republican is supposedly favored, but you know all of that.
You and I both agree that it’s early and a lot can change, but they have to really have a lot of luck to flip the senate if Obama performs strongly at the top. That may not happen, but it’s seeming more and more likely, unless the economy tanks.
Rehberg winning. He’s not really likeable, Tester still looks like a Montanan and I can easily see Obama carrying MT.
There was also a pretty convincing DK diary about how Bredesen would win.
Also, I really don’t see Heller beating Berkeley with Krolicki as gov and Obama winning the state by about 8%.
LOSES = 3? ND-Sen, NE-Sen and some “surprise”
ND-Sen: Without the incumbent it is not possible win here.
NE-Sen: B Nelson is running in a very red state and has not the best prospect. I would not rule out he retires, and I would not tell nothing. I appreciate his wish of fight and sure he will make the race closer than the republicans wish.
??-Sen: We can have some bad new more. I would tell one, it is like my safety margin. Especially without the strongest candidate for Virginia (T Kaine). To have not the frontrunner running is always dangerous. MT-Sen or MO-Sen can give some bad surprise, but I think the prospect is not bad. The polls for Montana and Missouri give weak numbers for the democratic incumbents but giving at same time very bad numbers for Obama. NM-Sen give me some doubt after the democratic incumbent and frontrunner decides retire. Little less doubt about FL-Sen and OH-Sen. The democratic party would be very lucky keeping all these seats.
GAINS = 3? MA-Sen, ME-Sen and NV-Sen?
MA-Sen: Massachusetts is as blue as Nebraska is red. I think S Brown will collapse and will lose. If not in the primary, in the general. And a lot easier if the people find the new leader of the Kennedy family in the ticket. I feel the people want “the” new Kennedy.
ME-Sen: To be unpopular between the republican base assure you lose a primary in these days. The republicans are conservative for all except for keep old officers. They respect no-one. I think O Snowe has not future as republican. And she is not a person with spirit for fight. The most likely option is she retires. Her future as senator is becoming black… or blue…
NV-Sen: I think this will be a crazy race in the republican side again. S Angle is the best republican primary runner in Nevada and sure she want to defeat D Heller and J Ensign. Still the Democratic Party needs the best for win here.
TN-Sen: Few people think still seriously about try to recruit P Bredesen for this race. It is necessary bid. Still, hard race. Here an unknown teabagger can defeat an incumbent senator (and a former governor).
AZ-Sen: Even with G Giffords recovered and running, I think this race will be hard for win. Here I’m less optimistic than Hoosierdem.
A lot less chance still for IN-Sen, TX-Sen and UT-Sen. I would see Lugar running as independent, and maybe Hatch too.
FINAL RESULT = EVEN ?
With success in some key recruitments like T Kaine, the new leader of the Kennedys, and the bests for Maine and Nevada, I think the democrats can be close to give a good surprise this cycle.
Honestly, even though I think 2012 will be a pretty good year for the Democrats (comfortable win for Obama, and better than 50% chance of retaking the House) I don’t like the Senate prospects at all.
Only one legitimate shot for a pickup (NV, I think MA is a lost cause) and so many of our guys in trouble. I think 50-50 Biden tiebreaking is about the best we can hope for, and my prediction would be 51-49 Republican advantage. I think we can take NV, but will lose ND, NE, MT, MO, and at least one of OH, FL, and VA.
We’ll be helped by the fact that the presidential year electorate has become so much stronger for Democrats (mainly because Dems used to do OK with older white voters – the FDR fans – but that’s no longer true). Until we can find a way to get young and ethnic voters out in off years those elections will be tough sledding. I don’t think it’s at all unlikely that the House will switch hands every two years for awhile until enough of the older white voters pass on to greener pastures and the roll of Hispanic voters becomes much larger.
Man – I’m going to miss this site! Will still check in from time to time, but no way am I going to register to post at the new home. If only we could SSP-only register there!
AZ: looks about right, assuming that Giffords doesn’t run unless she’s approximately back to normal by this summer.
CA: looks good, but Issa may be even worse than generic R.
CT: McMahon would be lucky to match her 2010 vote share.
FL: looks ok, Nelson should win unless Obama does poorly there.
IN: looks good assuming Reeps don’t get caught napping like they did in 08.
MA: Agree that Brown has the upper hand for now. He’ll lose most of the low-info Dems who only show up for presidential elections, but I can see him getting a lot of deliberate ticket-splitters.
ME: that’s probably about right.
MI: I think Stabenow will win by 10 or so.
MO: here I disagree. Obama lost the state by 0.1 points and will be competitive again unless he implodes. McCaskill should run a few points ahead of him. I think all of her prospective opponents are weaker than Talent was, and she has the incumbency advantage now.
NE: Obama lost by 15 and Nelson will still probably run a few points ahead of him. I think 56-44 or so is more likely.
NV: I may be missing something, but Heller v. Berkley looks like vanilla Reep v. vanilla Dem to me, and I think a vanilla Dem has the edge with Obama at the top of the ticket in a state he won by 12.4 last time.
NJ: looks about right.
NM: Obama is polling very well there and I don’t see the Senate nominee running that far behind him.
ND: I think you’re off base there. ND voters are fairly conservative but they aren’t very partisan. A generic ND Reep isn’t John Hoeven, and a generic ND Dem isn’t very liberal. The baseline there is more like 54R-46D.
OH: I think Obama is favored here, and in that case Brown also wins.
TN: looks about right.
TX: the Dem should run a point or two ahead of Obama, who will probably lose by around 10.
VA: Obama is favored here, and even Perriello would run at least even with him.
MT: see above, although Obama lost by a bit more (2.5). Tester should run ahead of him even though Rehberg is probably a bit better than McCaskill’s opponent will be. Incumbents who don’t have scandals usually win when their party wins the white house.
WI: I think Kind is much closer to the median state voter than Ryan is, and in any case the unions and their allies are going to be in a frenzy so there will be many more Dem volunteers than you normally get.
Calculating the mean results of the polls at the bottom of these diaries:
Average poll response at RRH: D -2.73
Average poll response at SSP: D -1.71
(fyi, I counted “5 or more” as 5, and disregarded “It’s way too early)
So, yeah, Democrats are more optimistic about Democratic chances than Republicans are. No surprise there. The difference is about one seat. Also interesting to note that I, as a Democrat, am more pessimistic than the average of SSP or RRH. I believe that, at this point, the GOP is favored in MO, ND, and NE, and that the chances of the GOP taking one or two more seats is about equal to the chances of Dems taking over an equivalent number of GOP seats.
for my own amusement did anyone get the Frasier reference? I debated putting it as I did not think there would be any Frasier fans.
It’s fairly interesting, the 1996 Baucus-Rehberg Senatorial Debate. You should definitely watch the first 10 minutes- it’s really worth watching to see them go at it- Rehberg dragged Baucus family into the campaign and Baucus really called him out for it.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/pro…
46-30 favorable and leads Santorum 50-38, Dent 51-32, and Gerlach 48-34. Likely D. Interestingly, the president comes in as the most popular politician in the state, 51-44 favorable.
http://municipoll.com/yahoo_si…