NY-26: Republicans Pick Corwin, Teabaggers Threaten Third-Party Challenge

A race that looked like it might be sleepy just got a bit more interesting. Not because of this:

Meanwhile, GOP leaders from the seven counties in the district picked state Assemblywoman Jane Corwin as their nominee during a meeting in Geneseo on Monday night.

Corwin said she was “humbled” by their support and touted her rating as the “the 2nd most conservative member” of the state Assembly by the New York State Conservative Party.

“I know we need to slash federal spending, balance the budget, end the bailouts, take leftover money from the Obama stimulus package to pay down the deficit and support repealing Obamacare,” she said in a statement.

But because of this:

The nomination of the establishment favorite, while celebrated by local Republican officials Monday night, drew an ominous warning from western New York tea party activists who immediately vowed to pursue a third-party candidate. …

The western New York tea party organization reacted swiftly and sharply Monday night immediately after Corwin’s selection had been finalized: “How sad, the GOP leaders stuck their finger high in the air and told the TEA Party to stick it,” said an updated statement posted on the group’s website Monday night. “The[y] have endorsed Corwin, they have now set their own table and invited a third party candidate to challenge them for this Congressional seat.”

Still, the teabaggers always talk a big game, and whether they can actually put up a fight is a big question that, I think, depends on two things. The first is whether the Conservative Party endorses Corwin (they’ve done so in the past), or if they give their line to a teahadist. If the Cons go with Corwin, the malcontents will have to petition their way on to the ballot – not something easily done.

The second is whether a well-funded outside group like the Tea Party Express or the Club for Growth decides to get in. The glory that was the Doug Hoffman-led NY-23 cat fud extravangaza would never have been possible without the CfG; if they or the TPX declines to get involved here, it’s hard to imagine Some Dude making much of an impact. There’s the possibility of finding a richie rich, but one good option, Carl Paladino, has already gotten behind Corwin.

Anyhow, we’ll obviously keep our eyes on this race, especially since Dems might still make a serious push here. Fingers always crossed for cat fud.

P.S. One detail from last November’s elections that had escaped my notice is that the Green Party managed to get more than 50,000 votes in the gubernatorial race. This means they get an automatic ballot line for the next four years, so no more petitioning – the first time this has happened for a new party in New York in quite a while. (The Libertarians came close, with just under 49K votes.) So we could see more third-party challenges bugging Dems from the left in the near future, if the Greens don’t make a habit of cross-endorsing (as the Working Families Party typically does).

UPDATE: So Republican leaders are kissing Conservative Party chair Mike Long’s… ring, and he seems inclined to play ball:

“I’ve had good conversations with Republican leaders in the state and in Washington, D.C.,” said Long. “Provided they pick a conservative Republican, I will work to keep this thing unified. It’s a seat we shouldn’t lose.”

Derail a few elections and suddenly everyone’s your friend! Meanwhile, Liz Benjamin points to another option:

However, the Indys could be convinced to support someone else – particularly if they get a personal ask from Rep. Steve Israel, the new DCCC chairman. The congressman is allies with state Indy Chairman Frank MacKay (they’re both Long Islanders), who would like to help Israel land his first victory in his new leadership role, if at all possible. …

But the DCCC, which apparently has done some polling on this, doesn’t see the point of putting any money into the race unless there’s a strong third party or independent candidate who might split the GOP vote in the Republican-dominated district, providing the Democrat with a potential path to victory.

Would the Independence Party deliberately try to split the vote just to help Israel? I’m skeptical – and this information is coming just from a single anonymous source of Benjamin’s. And as I say above, I don’t think merely having a third-party placeholder would be enough of a difference-maker. I think that candidate would have to have real money.

UPDATE 2: Now this is the kind of third-party candidate I’m talking about. No, not David Bellavia, the Iraq war vet mentioned in this morning’s digest who apparently refused to rule out such a run when he interviewed with party leaders. I’m talking about Crazy Jack Davis, the lunatic jillionaire and three-time failed candidate for this seat. There are conflicting reports. “Sources say” to Liz Benjamin that Davis could mount an independent bid, but the Daily Caller amusingly relates that Davis “said he would try for the Democratic nomination if he did not receive the Republican endorsement.” A sure way to lose both nods! Third party, here he comes?