There are a few note worthy developments worth pointing out in the highly competitive race in IN-09 This is too long for a comment so I thought it was worth posting. Enjoy!
Firstly Baron Hill is currently walking the district. He will walk a total of 250 miles over the next few months. I think this will help a lot. He did the same thing against Coats in his Senate runs and I think it was one of the reasons he came so close to beating him. It has gotten positives press so far and the joy of it is it is the walk is spread out so it will continue. Think every small town newspaper will talk of the Congressman walking through their communities. Expect positive advertising over this. Hill is known for being a good athlete and he comes off young and this helps, it really does.
http://newsandtribune.com/loca…
Although something that is very much not good at all is that it was discovered that Hill received a $25,000 donation from embattled Rep Charlie Rangel. Rangel is becoming a national name and I would not be surprised if Young makes an issue of it. I think that donations from Rangel may be a central theme in IN Republicans message this year as Ellsworth and Donnelly also received money. Although they both gave the money to charity. This could hurt Hill, it really could.
http://www.wishtv.com/dpp/news…
Personally I do not think it is a big deal. He got the money before any corruption charges and has already spent it but it probably would have been better to give it to charity for PR purposes all the same.
Hill and Young have agreed to two debates. Personally I think it will help Hill as he is more seasoned. However Hill is known for losing his temper but I think he can keep it together. Young, like any challenger, is trying to make hay out of the fact he requested more debates but was denied. Well get over it Toddy and be happy with what you got.
http://www.courier-journal.com…
Also mildly worth noting, a right wing indy dropped out but I do not think it matters much as I doubt he would have gotten a percent of the vote. Honestly I did not hear of him before I read about it in the SSP Digest. I have also heard that primary loser and royal nutcase Travis Hankins has not been fully supportive of Young. I have still seen some Hankins signs any who.
I think this race is going to be EXTREMLY negative. It always has been with Hill and Sodrel. I think Hill will try to make the race about Young, mentioning his alleged view that Social Security is a ponzi scheme and how Young is a carpet bagger, being from Carmel originally. Young will attack over Hill’s HCR and Cap and Trade vote and the infamous town hall from hell. I know a lot of people have moved this race from a tossup to lean D recently do to the rather nice internal we saw from Young but Hill is not safe yet. Minus 2008 Hill has never really had an “easy” election so I think he has the experience to win but it is also worth pointing out that Hill has never been overly popular. At least I do not have to risk having Mike Sodrel as my Congressman again. I mean I do not like him but at least Young has a college degree and talks about things besides abortion. This will be a close race either way but I think we may just win it. Although I am not sure what this district will look like in 2012 so it may not matter much. I would rank this at tossup tilt D. I would love to get my fellow Hoosiers input as always. Also if anyone has any questions, comments or concerns I would love to hear them. Not just about IN-09, I feel in an Indiana sort of mood.
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I pressed the wrong button. YES and NO should be tied at 2. Anyway, I think Young was a good get for the party and definitely a huge improvement over Sodrel. Considering everyone knows Hill by now, and not many people know Young (I assume) and this race is extremely close NOW and Young is raising goo money, I think he has a very good shot at winning.
It is going to get really, really negative. As you know, Sodrel threw everything and the kitchen sink at Hill, and Baron took three of the four rounds. If it wasn’t for the national environment, I’d favor Hill by 15 points.
I also think it’s a great idea to walk the district. It plays up that Baron is about as local to his district as you can get (lifelong resident of Seymour, member of the Indiana Basketball Hall of Fame, etc), while Carmel is about as culturally far away from SE Indiana as Haughville is!
You’re right he does need to keep his temper in check. All it would take is another repeat of the, as you call it, Town Hall from Hell. Unlike Senator Levin, hopefully no one will throw a pie at him!!
I can’t imagine that many people in SE Indiana care about Charlie Rangel, so if Young makes a big deal about it, it might actually help Hill – in that people will perceive that Young doesn’t care about the big issues that really affect them.
Hill is a strong, effective Congressman who has won tough races before, so I predict that he’ll hold on and win a close race in November.
I can’t see any way that a snotty brat from Carmel who has a Bloomington home address can convince a primarily rural district that he represents their interests when he’s running against a guy who’s been doing exactly that for years and has the “us folks” vibe about him. The walking around the district is great – it really gets Hill to connect with the voters in a way that makes Young look aloof and, well, Quayle-ish. Hill is also a lot more involved in community events in his district than are a lot of US Reps. And, as you mention, there are the disgruntled hard-liners on the GOP side who think Young is a pansy and won’t support him – not just Hankins but what little remains of Sodrel’s base as well. (It’ll be interesting to see what Jeffersonville and New Albany in particular look like on election day.)
The GOP’s best hope for getting rid of Hill is to redistrict him – especially now that Bayh’s pretty much bought the governor’s mansion in 2012 and Lugar’s running again, too – Hill has nowhere to move up….unless enough of the local Dem establishment gets pissed at Bayh for costing us a safe Senate seat and generally being the slimy Presidential aspirant that he is, in which case Hill could have a clear opening to run as a populist for governor, though I doubt he could overcome Bayh’s absurd cash advantage. (Will no one rid me of this turbulent political dynasty?)
IA-Gov GOP candidate Terry Branstad wants to scrap Iowa’s Dept of Economic Development in favor of a public/private partnership similar to what (he claims) works well in Indiana. Do you have any thoughts/links about how that system works, and if so, could you e-mail me (desmoinesdem AT yahoo.com)? Sounds to me like letting business capture government functions and dole out corporate welfare.