Tag: Joseph Cao

Sorry about the title, I was going for something more creative and that is a bit blah. However the title does explain the overview of this diary. This election cycle was expected to be as boring as can be for Indiana yet a series of retirements and resignations changed it. Indiana contains many important elections and promises to be an entertaining year. I will try and provide an overview of all of our elections and even provide predictions. I hope you enjoy!

IN Senate

When Evan Bayh announced just days before the filing date that he would not seek re-election I was furious. However his timing was actually brilliant. It ensured that none of the big name Republicans who would love the job like Pence or Daniels got on the ballot. Instead the Republicans got stuck with washed up former Senator Dan Coats. Coats has been gaff-tastic and is a seriously flawed candidate. While he had a bloody fight to get his parties nomination over a bunch of nobodies we quietly nominated top tier candidate Congressman Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth is the absolute best person to take on Coats. He is young, energetic and actually lives in Indiana. He is running as an outsider as well, instead of talking about his tenure in Congress he focuses on his time as Sherriff. Ellsworth is solidly against gun control whereas Coats seems to favor it. Ellsworth will likely get a solid number of Republicans who are dissatisfied with Coats. This race has yet to truly take off yet but when it does it will be close, very close. Please do not write Indiana off. Go ahead and give it a Republican lean for now if you want but understand a lot will change when the campaign begins. Please read Ellsworth’s campaign report that includes some encouraging poll results.

http://www.ellsworthforindiana…

Prediction

Ellsworth -50%

Coats-47%

Other-3%

IN-01

Pete Visclosky disgusts me. He is corrupt and genuinely slimy if you get my drift. I have been hoping for a primary challenge for years but to no prevail. It would be nice for him to just retire and take a cozy lobbying job yet he loves Washington too much. He is progressive enough (although the sleaze-ball voted against wall street regulation) however he is very corrupt. Trust me the day will come when his ways catches up to him and he is forced out in disgrace. He is pretty much guaranteed a 14th term to Congress though because the Republicans have yet again nominated a perennial candidate who has no chance of winning. He has ran in every race since 2002. So don’t expect a William Jefferson set of events to happen because trust me Mark Leyva is no Joseph Cao. I just hope next cycle he is booted out in the primary. This guy is an embarrassment and trust me a primary here would be the best thing possible for us.

Prediction

Visclosky-67%

Leyva-33%

(Not sure if there are any third parties running. If so give the Lib 2 and take one away from Visclosky and Leyva respectfully)

IN-02

Joe Donnelly is a nice enough guy. I have only met him once but he seemed friendly. Indiana’s second CD has a Republican tilt to it but I think Donnelly will win by a solid enough margin all the same. He actually beat a somewhat solid candidate in 08, garnering nearly 70% of the vote. Republicans are smart! They nominated a woman who actually goes by Wacky Jackie (although we just nominated Alvin freaking Greene so we probably shouldn’t talk). Jackie is a state representative and former reporter. Do to the nature of the district it is not impossible for Jackie to pull an upset but I highly doubt it. I would put it at lean D.

Prediction

Donnelly-55%

Wolarski-45%

IN-03

I have never been fond of Mark Souder. He has always came off as an ass to me. During his time in Washington he always fought for family values, about as social of conservative as they come. Yeah Mark Souder resigned a bit ago after admitting to having an affair with a staffer, who ironically made a tape with him about abstinence only sex ed. You are supposed to expect anything in Congress but I did not expect that. None the less I was glad he resigned because I was plain and simply glad to see him away from Washington. He had a somewhat close primary to a rich teabagging car dealer owner. However right after all of the affair shit broke and he resigned. So the Republicans chose a nominee at a convention of delegates. Not surprisingly they chose state senator Marlin Stutzman who just ran a very impressive campaign against former Senator and lobbyist Dan Coats. Personally I think Stutzman would have been stronger than Coats but all the same this is a nice parting gift for Stutzman who defeated a hullabaloo of candidates at the convention. I have nothing against Stutzman, while I disagree with him ideology he seems like a nice guy and will be much better than Souder at any rate. We have a great candidate in the district and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. Former city councilman Tom Hayhurst is running. Hayhurst was the nominee in 2006 and ran a great campaign. He is known for his fundraising ability. If this was 2006 or 2008 I would put this at lean D but Stutzman is too popular and the district too conservative. I know some say that the supporters of his convention opponents won’t show up but I don’t buy that argument, I just don’t. The one positive is that Stutzman primary supporters will probably show up greater in November and may still be mad enough their guy lost to Coats that they may vote Ellsworth.  

Prediction

Stutzman-56%

Hayhurst-44%

IN-04

Steve Buyer does not actually have a squeaky clean reputation but I have never particularly disliked him all the same. He is not seeking re-election this year and do to his wife’s illness. I believe his involvement in the frontier education foundation probably contributed but I want to believe he is retiring solely to spend more time with his wife who is not in good condition health wise. Term limited Indiana SoS Todd Rokita jump at the chance of an upgrade. He also considered a potential Senate run but passed. Rokita is not that bad, while he will be a mostly conservative vote he really does seem reasonable like Dick Lugar, who is also conservative but still has an independent streak. We have no chance here come November. Some dude David Sanders is our nominee.

Prediction

Rokita-66%

Sanders-34%

IN-05

Republicans are so freaking stupid. I am not talking ideology here but pure horse race politics. Dan Burton is the most corrupt politician in the state. He is a royal douche who, I feel, is way out of touch with his district and reality. He is an avid golfer who has actually missed votes to golf with lobbyists and goes on expensive golfing trips. He was also avid on spreading the Vincent Foster conspiracy during Clinton’s days. He has been in Washington too long and everyone hates him and knows he is an ineffective legislature. He was a prime target to be primaried but no, the Republicans fucked it up. About a gizillion people jumped at the chance to knock him out. Had the number of challengers been knocked to single digits he would have lost. But no, name recognition got him a pathetic 30 percent of the vote, barely enough to squeak by former Republican Party chair Luke Messer. 70% of Republicans voted against this sleaze bag but no he still gets a 15th term. Republicans/Teabaggers get your shit together next time! We nominated a real life teabagger Democrat. Yes a teabagging Democrat. I know a lot of people have wondered if the baggers and everyone will unite behind the Democrat, well it ain’t going to happen. Crawford is not a politician and has no skill and while I would rather have a teabagging Democrat than Burton it is not going to happen. Maybe next year they will do it right or maybe Burton will even retire. This is one of those rare moments when teabaggers and Democrats share a same goal.  

Prediction

Burton-67%

Crawford-33%

IN-06

Mike Pence is a savvy politician who has a real future in politics. I wish he was a Democrat because believe me he has skill. I am willing to bet that his next term in Congress will be his last, especially if we retain Congress. He will either run for Governor, Senate or President. The only thing that could get him to stay would be the possibility of being speaker someday but I highly doubt it happens. We have put up, once again, minister Barry Welsh. Barry is a good guy but does not have what it takes to make this race competitive.

Prediction

Pence- 72%

Welsh- 28%

IN-07

Andre Carson is the most progressive elected politician in Indiana. He is only the second Muslim currently in Congress. I really like him and I think he has a real future in the house. Perhaps he will even reach leadership someday. Carson won a special election back in 2008 when his grandmother, a really decent person and effective Congresswoman, passed away. He was elected to a full term by a large margin and will face perennial candidate Marvin Scott in November. Scott was the 2004 nominee for Senate against Evan Bayh, receiving 37% of the vote. He has ran for this seat several times, actually coming close in 1994. Carson has his job in Congress until he does not want it anymore. Scott will be crushed.

Prediction

Carson-65%

Scott-35%

IN-08

Brad Ellsworth is universally known and loved in Indiana’s eight congressional district, however he will not be running for Congress this year but will instead be running for US Senate. We got one of the best possible candidates we could have gotten in state representative Trent Van Haaften. Van Haaften is very popular. People seem to forget that when rating this district. Larry Buchson is the essence of generic R in my view. He offers nothing. He won a very unimpressive primary win, much less than I had predicted. The Tea Party does not like him and I am sure some of them will refuse to vote for him. Van Haaften has even reached out to some of the upset Tea Party members. I could see him getting a lot of Republican votes. No matter how you think the Senate race will turn out it is obvious that Ellsworth will clean up in his own district and that will likely provide coattails for Van Haaften. Fellow Indiana SSP user notanothersonofabush made a good point the other day about The GOP having other priorities and it is very true, the Republicans have there eyes set on the Senate seat and possibly knocking out Hill and this is not at the top of their to do list.  

Prediction

Van Haaften-53%

Buchson-47%

IN-09

Baron Hill is my Congressman and I have the utmost respect for him. He has represented the district well and I have always been fond of him. His only “easy” election was last year when the Republicans nominated retread Mike Sodrel again. Sodrel originally ran in 2002 and was defeated yet he successfully ran in 2004 but was defeated again by Hill in 2006 and very soundly again in 2008. You would think he got the message but no, he once again ran this year and he came in third place in the Republican primary. The Republicans nominated Bloomington attorney Todd Young. Young is nothing special but is a step above lunatic Travis Hankins and Sodrel. I mean at least Young has a higher education than a high school diploma for one. Young is not free of controversy though, he received money from Massey energy, a mining company which is now under scrutiny for unsafe conditions it puts it’s workers through. Hill did one thing uber stupid though. During a town hall one of these Republican activist with a video camera bated the Congressman and got what she wanted with him telling her that it is his town hall and he makes the rules. He is referring to his ban of video camera’s but it did not look good. It makes an excellent attack add. Like I said Hill has never really been given a free pass and this is shaping up to be a much more conservative year than he has faced in the past and the Republicans nominated someone much better than Sodrel. So it will certainly be no cake walk but Hill is used to tough elections and he knows how to handle himself. A lot of people say his vote on health care reform hurt him but I actually think he would be worse off had he voted against the legislation. He needs high turnout in Bloomington and he needs to keep progressives happy there. Also please do not take the poll taken by fire dog lake seriously. They were against the health care reform bill and I believe it was there tactic to poll tough districts to scare members of Congress out of voting for the legislation. The poll in question was highly questionable as it contained many gottcha questions and such. Mike Sodrel even released an internal poll showing him leading by one so it is pretty obvious that poll was highly inaccurate when a Republicans internal shows better news for Hill. Tough but Hill has it in him.

Prediction

Hill-50%

Young-46%

Others-4%

IN SoS

Incumbent Secretary of State Todd Rokita is term limited. The Democrats will nominate Vop Osili  or Tom McKenna for the job and the Republicans nominated Charlie White. I do not know the dynamics of the race, although I consistently receive emails from Vop and he sounds like a serious candidate. I do not know this race enough to make a prediction though, maybe my fellow Indiana SSP users could make the call.

Auditor and Treasurer

Berry and Mourdock are safe. I do not know a lot about the races but they are scandal free so they will probably be fine.

IN State House

We were supposed to lose the state house last year but we managed to cling onto it. I do not think we will be as lucky this year. We have many competitive elections and not a lot in our favor. I am predicting we lose but narrowly. I am going to predict that the Republicans get 52 seats and we get 48. I hope I am wrong.

State Senate

The Republicans will have no problems retaining the state senate.

Please let me know what you think. I welcome all feedback, positive or not. I would especially like to hear from my fellow Indiana SSP users. Thanks!!!!

• LA-Sen: Two different polls have very different pictures of the Louisiana Senate race, which is moving into the foreground with Charlie Melancon getting a lot more media exposure criticizing BP while David Vitter acts as one of their biggest defenders. PPP (in a poll leaked to Roll Call, although I’m not sure if it’s a Melancon internal or on someone else’s behalf) finds Melancon within single digits, trailing Vitter 46-37. On the other hand, Republican pollster Magellan gives Vitter a 51-31 lead. (Magellan has been doing a lot of recent public polling of Republican primaries; this is for the general, though, and I’m not sure if they’re working for Vitter, for some other GOP interest, or just acting sua sponte.) Both polls find extremely high continued support for offshore drilling, not a surprise since that’s Louisiana’s bread and butter.

• NH-Sen: Yesterday was Kelly Ayotte’s day to testify before the state legislature about what she did and didn’t know about the collapsed mortgage banker FRM; for the most part, she staked out claims of not knowing anything about them (saying that the buck stopped with her, but the buck never made it to her AG’s desk). Legislators seemed underwhelmed by her responses, and even GOP state Rep. Rip Holden criticized her, saying she needed to accept some blame for the state’s failings.

• PA-Sen: Politico, always hungry for inside-baseball campaign drama, is highlighting a story titled “Sestak silence worries Pa. officials,” detailing concerns the local establishment has with Joe Sestak not sufficiently linking up with them as he pivots toward the general election. It’s actually an interesting article, but Pa2010‘s Dan Hirschhorn captures the overarching tone of it with his own meta-piece, “The Sestak-as-crazy-campaigner meme returns.”

• SC-Sen: Today’s 538 look at the South Carolina puzzle focuses on how Census microdata suggests that the Greene/Green difference may not have been the racial dogwhistle that people think it is: nationwide, a higher percentage of Greenes are white than are Greens. (H/t to our commenter KCinDC, who pointed out this same data point over the weekend.) In fact, the first name “Alvin” may be a clearer dogwhistle instead. (And, of course, there’s the danger in extrapolating national data to the state level, where things may be much different in South Carolina.)

• WA-Sen: As I’ve opined before, attacking Dino Rossi for having made money off foreclosed properties, and teaching other people how to do it, has a whiff of “what else have you got?” But what’s really weird here is that he just keeps scheduling more appearances at more real estate seminars, as he’ll being doing today. (Today’s burning question: “Is now the time to buy a waterfront home?”) If I were the NRSC, I’d be worried about how committed he is to a race he seemed to get dragged kicking and screaming into in the first place, if he’s still doing real estate seminars instead of campaigning 24/7. Is the Senate race a way to keep his name in the spotlight so he can get more money for more real estate seminar appearances?

• AK-Gov: P’oh! Former state official Bob Poe was the first Dem to get in the gubernatorial race (back when it would have been against Sarah Palin). But not having made much progress on the fundraising front against the higher-profile Ethan Berkowitz and Hollis French in the Democratic primary, he pulled out of the race yesterday.

• CA-Gov, CA-Sen: There’s a poll of the California races out from CrossTarget research on behalf of right-wing new media outlet Pajamas Media, so you might keep the salt shaker handy (especially remembering their decidedly optimistic polling of the MA-Sen special). That said, though, the gubernatorial numbers look perfectly plausible, with Jerry Brown leading Meg Whitman 46-43. The Senate race may be a little further off the mark, pegged at a 47-47 tie between Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina. Speaking of Whitman, she just wrote herself a check for another $20 million from her seeming bottomless reserves, bringing her total self-funding investment to $91 million. The main Whitman story that’s in the news today, though, presents a different picture of her from the rather serene Queen Meg that appears in all her advertising: it turns out she settled with an eBay employee for six-figures after shoving her during an argument.

• FL-Gov (pdf): When you’re reduced to leaking your own internal poll that has you tied with your opposition, well, let’s just say you’re in a world of hurt. But that’s what Bill McCollum is doing today to prove his continued relevance in the Florida GOP gubernatorial primary. His poll by McLaughlin & Associates has McCollum tied at 40-40 with Rick Scott.

• IA-Gov: As expected, the religious right isn’t planning to do much of anything to help Terry Branstad defeat Chet Culver in November. The Iowa Family PAC, who had backed Bob Vander Plaats, confirmed (as they’d threatened months ago) that they won’t endorse Branstad.

• CO-04: Credit GOP nominee Cory Gardner with having some sense of decency (or at least knowing when it’s not expedient to hitch his wagon to the crazy train). After Iowa Rep. Steve King’s comments about Barack Obama’s racist “default mechanism,” Gardner abruptly canceled a $100/person fundraiser he had scheduled for Saturday with King. (King, for his part, is doubling down on the crazy, with his impassioned defense of racial profiling yesterday.)

• KY-06: The Andy Barr campaign is out with an internal by the Tarrance Group showing him within sorta-striking distance of Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler. Chandler leads Barr 45-38. Chandler’s spokesperson said that Chandler “has a strong double-digit lead” in his own polling, but didn’t offer a polling memo.

• NC-08: The list of GOP Beltway figures piling on to support Harold Johnson instead of Tim D’Annunzio is a veritable House GOP who’s who. John Boehner and Eric Cantor are headlining a Thursday Capitol Hill fundraiser for Johnson, with Pete Sessions and Greg Walden also atop the list. Obviously plans for this must predate today’s PPP poll showing the huge disparity in viability between Johnson and D’Annunzio, so the NRCC has clearly had their eye on this one for a while.

• OK-02: Rep. Dan Boren is out with an internal poll as he faces a tough fight in a dark-red district… but he doesn’t seem concerned enough with his minor GOP opposition to even poll on that. Instead, he’s focused on a late-breaking primary challenge from the left from state Sen. Jim Wilson. His poll from Myers Research gives him a 68-24 lead over Wilson.

• OR-01: Tis the season for internal polls, I guess: there’s also one floating around out there from Rob Cornilles, the little-known but NRCC-touted businessman running against Rep. David Wu in the Portland suburbs. The Cornilles poll, by local Republican pollster Moore Information, gives Wu a 46-40 lead over Cornilles, suggesting that Wu is at least in for a tougher-than-usual challenge even if he has the district’s D+7 lean working in his favor.

• SC-06: The strange saga of the South Carolina Democratic primary is also playing out in the 6th, where Democratic House Whip Jim Clyburn easily beat Gregory Brown. Clyburn, who’s led the charge that Senate candidate Alvin Greene was a plant, is crying “foul” here as well, though, pointing out that Brown has been linked to a Republican consulting firm. The Brown campaign paid $23K to Stonewall Strategies (run by former Joe Wilson aide Preston Grisham) for “marketing;” Brown says he worked with them because they were the only ones willing to take him on as a client. Several African-American state legislators tell TPM that they’ve talked with Brown and figure that his campaign, while quixotic, was still “on the level.”

• TN-08: Allegedly humble gospel singer Stephen Fincher has gone negative against his opposition in the GOP primary, not the usual sign of a confident frontrunner. He’s launched a new ad against physician Ron Kirkland, attacking Kirkland for allowing thousands of dollars in contributions to Democratic candidates when he was head of the American Medical Group Association. He’s also charging that the Jackson Clinic, which Kirkland ran at the time, gave $8K to state Sen. Roy Herron, who’s now running for the Democratic nod in the 8th.

• VA-05: The hope of party unity for state Sen. Robert Hurt seems to be running into quite a few hitches, in the wake of his 48% victory in the GOP primary against fractured teabagging opposition. The Lynchburg Tea Party leadership says they won’t back Hurt (although they seem to be not backing anyone rather, than supporting right-wing indie Jeffrey Clark). TPM also claims that Jim McKelvey, who courted Tea Party support en route to finishing a distant second in the GOP primary, won’t be backing Hurt either.

• NRCC: Rep. Mike Rogers has a pretty easy job this year: he’s in charge of incumbent retention for the NRCC. He says there are, at this point, only nine incumbents who are in need of continued financial support: Dan Lungren, Mary Bono Mack, Charles Djou, Joseph Cao, Pat Tiberi, Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent, and Dave Reichert. (You’d think he’s been looking at our House Ratings page or something.) There’s one other stray bit of good news for the NRCC: they’ve finally settled their several-years-old embezzlement case, paying a $10K civil penalty for improper reporting; they’ve also received a payout from their insurance company, covering $500K of their lost $724K in funds.

Meanwhile, wags have been having some great fun at the expense of the name of the NRCC’s offense program, named, of course, “Young Guns.” Despite the fact that the average Young Gun is 50 years old. Only 7 of the 105 members of the program are women, so maybe at least the Gun part is right.

• DCCC: Roll Call looks at the DCCC’s continued outreach to K Street. An “adopt a member” strategy is being cooked up where sympathetic lobbyists will work directly with the most embattled members to shepherd them through the electoral cycle.

• WATN?: If you’re wondering whatever became of ex-Rep. John Doolittle, who retired in shame in 2008 after getting caught up in the Jack Abramoff scandal, it turns out he won’t be facing any charges. The DOJ has finally closed the case on Doolittle, who had previously been named as a co-conspirator in the case against aide-turned-lobbyist Kevin Ring.

• DE-Sen: Rep. Mike Castle yesterday told a radio interviewer that he’d decide “in the next month or so” what, if anything, he’s going to run for. One possible hint, though, is that he said that there are some “good young elected officials in the state who possibly could run on a statewide basis and should be looked at,” and he specifically named some state legislators like state sen. Charlie Copeland and state Reps. Tom Kovach and Greg Lavelle.

• FL-Sen: Here’s another sign of trouble looming in the GOP primary for Charlie Crist, at least within the activist base, hot on the heels of his big loss in the Pasco County straw poll. The Volusia County GOP actually voted to censure him, over a list of grievances including his moderate judicial appointments, support of the Obama stimulus, and lack of support for Tom Feeney and Ric Keller last year. (Volusia Co.’s main city is Daytona Beach and population is over 400,000, so this isn’t one of those little Dixiecrat panhandle counties, either.)

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk downplayed the story of his Tweeting while on active military duty (as a Naval Reservist) at a news conference yesterday, but apologized for having done so.

• NH-Sen: Skepticism behind-the-scenes seems to be growing in New Hampshire, especially among conservative activists, about the ordination of Kelly Ayotte as Senate candidate, handed down from on high from the Beltway. Various on- and off-the-record insiders are unsure of her political leanings, ‘meh’ about her speaking style, and worried that she’s never had to raise funds before. A lot of this agitation has been coming from the state’s largest paper, the Manchester Union-Leader, which has a notably hard-right editorial page and has been fannish of likely primary opponent Ovide Lamontagne in the past.

• MN-Gov: This seemed to slip through the cracks last week, but Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak is sounding more like a candidate now. While giving a stump-ish speech to local Democrats, Rybak said that he’s “very likely” to enter the open seat gubernatorial race.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): In another indication that things are getting worse, not better, for Jon Corzine, the new poll from Monmouth shows him trailing Chris Christie by 14 points among likely voters, 50-36, with 4% to independent Chris Daggett. This is particularly troublesome because Monmouth has been the pollster most favorable to Corzine; he trailed by only 8 in the July poll. Interestingly, though, Corzine trails by only 4 (43-39) among registered voters, a narrower gap than in July — suggesting that his only hope is getting a lot of unlikely voters to turn out. Democrats countered with their own internal poll (pdf) today, showing Corzine down by “only” 7, 42-35-6.

• TX-Gov: You may recall that the Kay Bailey Hutchison campaign decided to pull the hidden phrase “rick perry gay” from its website’s code, but left a bunch of other hidden phrases (in the code, not meta-tags). That’s a big-time search-engine optimization party foul, though, and it led to Google and Yahoo pulling the website from their search indexes this weekend.

• CA-10: State Senator Mark DeSaulnier may have lost one of his most potent weapons: the State Department asked him to stop using the endorsement of his predecessor (and current Undersecretary of State for arms control) Ellen Tauscher. It’s not illegal, but they want to avoid any ethical impropriety. The primary special election is Sept. 1.

• FL-24: Rep. Suzanne Kosmas may find herself up against a celebrity candidate next year: former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz, who now lives in the Orlando area. Holtz has been in contact with the NRCC about the race, and certainly brings name recognition, but comes with a couple drawbacks: one, he’s 72 years old, ancient for a House freshman, and two, he raised some eyebrows last year after having to apologize for calling Hitler a great leader.

• LA-02: Kudos to Rep. Joseph Cao for having the courage to say out loud what we’re all thinking: “I know that voting against the health care bill will probably be the death of my political career.” Strange to give that sort of ammunition to potential opponents when it’s clear from his fundraising that he’s intending to run again.

• LA-03: Scott Angelle, natural resources secretary under both Kathleen Blanco and Bobby Jindal and former Democratic St. Martin parish president, is maintaining his interest in the possibly-vacant LA-03 seat. However, rumor has it that he may run for the seat as a Republican, and he did go on the record saying he’d “consider” swapping party labels (which are especially porous in Louisiana). State Rep. Nickie Monica says he’s in the race (as a Republican) regardless of whether or not Charlie Melancon pulls the trigger on a Senate run. One other Democrat not mentioned before who’s considering the race is 27-year-old New Orleans corporate lawyer Ravi Sangisetty, who grew up in Houma.

• MD-01: State Sen. Andy Harris is taking steps to solve one of the two problems that hampered him in last year’s election against Rep. Frank Kratovil: he’s coming to the Eastern Shore. He isn’t moving, but he will be working part-time (he’s a mild-mannered anesthesiologist by day) at the hospital in Salisbury, in order to bolster his Eastern Shore cred. It’ll be a little harder to paper over his other problem, which is that he’s a Club for Growth wacko. Harris was just named one of the NRCC’s Young Guns, despite the fact that he might still face a primary against less conservative and Eastern Shore-based state Sen. E.J. Pipkin, who seems like he’d pick up most of the votes that went for Wayne Gilchrest in the 2008 primary (although Pipkin may be looking at running for state Comptroller instead).

• NY-23: Despite interest from some colorful-sounding “activists,” it looks like the Conservative Party line in the upcoming special election is likely to go to a more establishment figure, accountant Doug Hoffman, who you may recall was one of the Republican wannabes not selected by the party apparatus. Hoffman attacked the hypothetical Democratic nominee and GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava as “Mr. Bad or Mrs. Worse.”

• MO-03: Rep. Russ Carnahan doesn’t usually draw more than a passing glance from the GOP in his D+7 district, but it looks like he’ll have a somewhat credible opponent in 2010. Ed Martin opened an exploratory committee for the race; he hasn’t been elected before, but has consummate insider credentials as Gov. Matt Blunt’s chief of staff for four years.

• RI-02: In an almost-one-party state like Rhode Island, primary challenges are a routine part of life. Rep. Jim Langevin fought off a primary challenge from professor Jennifer Lawless in 2006; in 2010, he’ll likely face state Rep. Elizabeth Dennigan (who had been planning to run for Lt. Governor, but had to drop that plan when incumbent Elizabeth Roberts decided to run for re-election instead of Governor). Although abortion was the flashpoint in 2006 (Langevin is pro-life), Dennigan says she won’t make much of an issue of it.

• TX-23: Pete Sessions is probably pounding his head on his desk right now. After getting self-funder Quico Canseco to come back for a clear shot at Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in the 23rd, Bexar Co. Commissioner Lyle Larson, who upset Canseco in the GOP primary in 2008, is saying he’s thinking of coming back for another try — potentially setting up another self-destructive primary.

• WI-03: Rep. Ron Kind is facing a real opponent for the first time in a while. State Sen. Dan Kapanke, who’s been acting candidate-ish for a long time, made it official yesterday that he’ll challenge the 14-year incumbent in 2010.

• OH-SoS: With Jennifer Brunner giving up her job to run in the Senate primary, the Secretary of State open seat race is turning into one of Ohio’s hottest tickets. While Democratic Franklin Co. Commissioner Marilyn Brown is in the race, she is trailing GOP state Sen. Jon Husted (who has $1.3 million) by about a 10-to-1 ratio for cash-on-hand. Now a second Democrat, state Rep. Jennifer Garrison from Marietta in the state’s southeast, is getting into the race. It’s a key race, as the SoS is one of the votes on the 5-member state legislative apportionment board, which Dems currently control 3-2, and which they’ll need to hold if they’re going to undo Republican-favorable gerrymanders in the state legislature.

• AR-Sen: Here’s a tea leaf that state Sen. Gilbert Baker may be interested after all in getting into the Senate race: he issued a press release today going after Democratic health care reform and Blanche Lincoln in particular. He’d probably be the favorite to win the GOP nomination if he got in, if only by virtue of the rest of the field being gaffe-prone wackos.

• CT-Sen: Best wishes to Chris Dodd, who has been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer and will undergo surgery over the August recess. He said he’ll be back at work after several weeks of recuperation at home, and that he still plans to run for re-election in 2010.

• IL-Sen: Add one more GOP Twitter fail to the increasingly long-list. Rep. Mark Kirk, who is also a Naval Reservist, tweeted his location (the National Military Command Center) while on duty. The DoD is now investigating, as it’s a problem on two fronts: one, the prohibition against using the media to give away your position, and two, the prohibition against, while on military service, updating a website established prior to the beginning of service. Complicating the legal question even further: it may have been a staffer tweeting on Kirk’s behalf. Because, y’know, it’s so hard to think up 140 characters of content on your own.

• NY-Sen-B: The confusion over the Carolyn Maloney campaign has reached epic proportions. Yesterday, CQ reported that Maloney had no fixed timeline for officially getting into the Senate primary, but that early August seemed likely. But today, Politico’s Glenn Thrush is reporting that Maloney is “leaning heavily against” making the race at all, according to several prominent Dems.

• ND-Sen: The NRSC is flogging a new internal poll which claims Gov. John Hoeven has a 53-36 lead over Sen. Byron Dorgan. Both men are very popular, with Hoeven with an 86% approval and Dorgan with a 69% approval. A public poll from R2K in February found the numbers almost exactly reversed, with Dorgan beating Hoeven 57-35… but Hoeven hasn’t taken any public steps to get into the race, so we may never find out who’s right.

• AK-Gov: Local pollster Hays Research looked at in-state approvals for Alaska’s incoming and outgoing governors, and found Sarah Palin leaving in net negative territory: 47/48. Sean Parnell looks bulletproof for the moment, at 67/8, but, having been in office for less than a week, hasn’t had the chance to screw anything up yet.

• TX-Gov: A bit more egg on the Kay Bailey Hutchison campaign’s face today, as the Austin American-Statesman found that her website had over 2,200 hidden phrases on it designed to steer traffic, including “rick perry gay.” (This wasn’t mere meta-tagging, but blind keywords invisibly put into the site’s code, something of a search engine-optimization no-no.) A spokesperson said they’d remove “rick perry gay,” although it sounds like the other 2,199 phrases stay.

• KS-04: Businessman Jim Anderson got into the overflowing GOP field in KS-04 to replace retiring Rep. Todd Tiahrt. He seems like he might get a little lost in the shuffle, in a field that already includes local GOP heavyweights RNC committeman Mike Pompeo and state Sen. Dick Kelsey, along with state Sen. Jean Schodorf, who recently began exploring the race.

• MO-04: Ike Skelton, who’s held down the fort for Dems in dark-red central Missouri since time immemorial, has drawn a more serious opponent than usual (not hard, since his usual opponents are nobodies or no one at all). Vicky Hartzler is a former state Rep. who has also written a book called “Running God’s Way,” apparently a how-to guide to campaigning for Christian right candidates. CQ also mentions several other still-in-office legislators who could also take on the 77-year-old Skelton (especially if he hears the siren song of retirement): state Rep. Tom Self and state Sen. Bill Stouffer.

• DCCC: The DCCC has responded with its own ad offensive on the health care front, a day after the RNC targeted 60 districts. The DCCC’s radio buy and robo-call package is a bit more targeted, focusing on 8 GOPers (not coincidentally, maybe their 8 most vulnerable incumbents running in 2010): Michele Bachmann, Joseph Cao, Charlie Dent, Dan Lungren, Thad McCotter, Erik Paulsen, Dave Reichert, and Pat Tiberi.

• Where Are They Now?: Former GOP Rep. Anne Northup found her way into the Obama administration, as a commissioner on the Consumer Product Safety Commission. This initially seems very odd — she already lost KY-03, so there’s no sense in appointing her to facilitate a Dem pickup — but it’s because the Senate GOP leader has a say in picking a Republican for one of the five commissioners, and Mitch McConnell opted to give the job to his long-time protege, who, having lost three races in a row, is probably finished with electoral politics.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist got an endorsement today from one of the guys who was considered to be one of the likeliest GOP nominees up until the point when, well, Crist got into the race: Rep. Vern Buchanan. (If you’re keeping score among Florida’s Reps., the Diaz-Balarts and Cornelius McGillicudy IV have endorsed Crist, while Jeff Miller has endorsed Rubio.)

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk has drawn another seemingly-minor challenger in the GOP primary. John Arrington, an African-American former city councilor from Chicago’s southern suburb of Harvey, will run. He also sought the party’s nomination for the same seat in 2004 after GOP primary winner Jack Ryan dropped out, although the state party gave the nomination to the much more fun Alan Keyes.

• NC-Sen, NC-07: As most people expected, Rep. Mike McIntyre announced that he will run for re-election instead of for the Senate seat held by Richard Burr. Which is just as well, as McIntyre is pretty conservative and also needed to hold down his reddish district. SoS Elaine Marshall is probably the biggest name left who’s sounding interested in the Senate race.

• OH-Sen: George Voinovich had one of his occasional moments of independence the other day, telling the Columbus Dispatch that too many conservative southerners (specifically citing Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn) are dragging down the party’s brand nationwide. “They get on TV and go ‘errrr, errrrr,'” he said. “People hear them and say, ‘These people, they’re southerners. The party’s being taken over by southerners. What they hell they got to do with Ohio?'” (I’m not quite sure what “errrr, errrr” means — maybe it’s supposed to be some sort of Frankenstein’s Monster noise — but otherwise it’s spot on.)

• CT-Gov: State senator Gary LeBeau, from East Hartford, seems to be the first Democrat to actually announce his candidacy for Governor. He’s been a Senator since 1996. Potential candidates he may face in the primary include Stamford mayor Daniel Malloy, SoS Susan Bysiewicz (both of whom have outpaced incumbent Governor Jodi Rell at fundraising so far), former state House speaker James Amman, and former Senate candidate Ned Lamont.

• MI-Gov: Although Lt. Gov. John Cherry seems on track to the Dem nomination, he got another primary opponent, former state Rep. John Freeman. Freeman’s hook is strong ties with organized labor, but Cherry is also friendly with labor. State Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith is also in the race, and former MSU football coach George Perles is all but in.

• MN-Gov: Will he or won’t he? After the news broke last night that Norm Coleman wasn’t planning to run for Governor, that has been updated today to reflect that he won’t really decide until some point in spring 2010… which seems intended to give his personal brand some time to, uh, recover his interminable contesting of the Senate election, but still sounds very odd, as the party’s endorsing convention is in late April, giving him almost no time to ramp up.

• SD-Gov: If there’s one job that’s even more thankless than being state Senate minority leader in South Dakota, it’s being the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate in South Dakota. Kudos to Scott Heideprem for doing both. Likely GOP contenders include Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and state Senate majority leader Dave Knudsen.

• TX-Gov: Kay Bailey Hutchison is already shaking up her campaign staff, confronted with polls that show her faltering in the gubernatorial primary as incumbent Rick Perry consolidates the hard-core base with his ranting against the feds. Campaign manager Rick Wiley is out, replaced by Terry Sullivan.

• CA-26: Rep. David Dreier has reimbursed himself an unusually high $200,000 out of his congressional campaign funds this decade, without the proper level of itemization required by the FEC, and watchdog groups are starting to wonder why. He says these are mostly mundane food expenses and that he’ll provide additional documentation if the FEC makes him. Hopefully he’s not making the same mistake a lot of small-time crooks make: when you launder money, you don’t put it in the Dreier afterwards.

• FL-16: With state Sen. Dave Aronberg running for AG, our next best bet is probably St. Lucie Co. Commissioner Chris Craft, and he’s “leaning” toward jumping into the race against freshman GOPer Tom Rooney in the next few weeks.

• LA-02: The first Democrat to announce a run against improbable GOP Rep. Joseph Cao is state Rep. Juan LaFonta. LaFonta had been rumored to be thinking about avoiding the Dem primary and running as an Independent, but won’t. State Rep. Cedric Richmond, who lost last year’s primary, and State Sen. Cheryl Grey Evans also sound likely to get in.

• MN-06: State Sen. Tarryl Clark made her run official, filing the paperwork for her candidacy ysterday. She’ll face off against 06 candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg and former IP member Maureen Reed in the primary.

• MS-01: This has been expected since state Sen. Merle Flowers said he wouldn’t run, but state Sen. Alan Nunnelee made it official yesterday, filing to run against Rep. Travis Childers. Nunnelee’s opening salvo against Blue Dog Childers was that he votes with Nancy Pelosi “100 percent.” Which is true, if by 100%, you actually mean 61%.

• TX-32: Here’s a profile of Grier Raggio, the locally-prominent attorney who’s running for the Democrats in the 32nd. The district still is Republican-leaning, but demographics are poised to move it quickly in our direction.

• FL-St. House: Term limits look like they’ll cut a sizable swath through the GOP delegation in Florida’s state House, with Republicans facing 25 open seats in 2010 — many of which are narrowly GOP-leaning and in Dem-trending central Florida — compared with only three for Democrats. Dems are starting out in a very deep hole in the state House, so an outright takeover isn’t likely, but it may bring them closer to balance.

Last night I was checking out the Progressive Punch scores for the new GOP House members.  Much of it was expected and depressing.  Seven of the new GOPers had a Progressive Punch score of zero.  That’s right Pete Olson (TX-22), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Blaine Leurkemeyer (MO-9, winner by 8,000 votes), Duncan Hunter (CA-52, son of that Duncan Hunter), Gregg Harper (MS-3),Brett Guthrie (KY-2) and John Fleming (LA-4) all had yet to cast a single “progressive” vote.

Eight others were not far behind with seven at 3.23 (Glenn Thompson, Tom Rooney, Tom McClintock, Lynn Jenkins, Mike Coffman, Jason Chaffetz, and Steve Austria) and one at 3.33 (Bill Posey).  Jenkins is a disappointment here.

Four showed at least a hint of moderation:  Phil Roe of TN-1 (6.45), Christoher Lee of NY-26 (9.68), Joseph Cao of LA-2 (12.90) and the positive surprise wonderkid Aaron Schock of IL-18 (16.13).  Lee is an improvement over the man he replaced, Tom Reynolds.  He might be harder to displace than I hoped.

I started counting Republicans by the year they were elected from information I had collected but found that the Washington Post lists representatives by class (the year first elected).  The results mainly “agreed” but the Post disregards gaps in serevice.  Ciro Rodriguez, for example, is shown as 1997 not 2006.  Dan Lungren, who served ten years and then left the House for 14 years is shown as 1978.

The Post lists 36 classes (they don’t list the class of 2008.  Republicans win 10 of the 37 classes (we know how 2008 turned out); 2 classes are tied and Democrats win 25 of the 37 classes.  The largest Republican class is the class of 2002 with 24 Republicans (and 13 Democrats).  The largest Democratic class is the class of 2006 with 37 members.  The famous class of 1974 where Democrats picked up 49 seats is reduced to just four members, all Democrats.  The Newt “Contract ” class of 1994 has been beaten down to 23 members, 16 Republicans and 7 Democrats.  There are more Republican House members left from the class of 1992 (18) than from the “revolutionary” class of 1994.  The Revolution is over.

The Republican years are 1973, (1-0), 1978 (3-0 including Lungren), 1979 (1-0, Tom Petri IIRC), 1980 (5-1), 1989 (1-0), 1994 (16-7), 2000 (17-12),2001 (5-1), and 2002 (24-13) and 2005 (2-1).

The three House members with the most seniority are all midwestern Democrats: John Dingell (1955, I kid you not), John Conyers (1964) and David Obey (1969, I remember his surprise election as an anti-war candidate).  The two Republicans with the most seniority are both named Young (Bill was elected in 1970, Don in 1973).  The other Republicans from the 70s are either from Wisconsin (Sensenbrenner and Petri) or California (Lungren and Jerry Lewis).

A narrow majority of Republican House members came in with George W. Bush.  2004 was the electoral high point for Republicans since 1928 when Herbert Hoover was elected along with 270 House members.  Since the election of 1932, Republicans have had the Trifecta for six years and five months.  The first spell lasted from early 1953 to early 1955.  Eisenhower was pretty moderate and the Republican legislative edges were about as slim as possible with 221 House members and a 48-47-1 edge in the Senate.  With the stolen Presidential election of 200, Republicans regained the trifecta from January 20,2001 to Jun 6,2001.  Their edge was 211 House seats, a 50-50 Senate vote with Dick Cheney as the tie-breaker and that is what Cheney did.  By obnoxiously leaning on Jim Jeffords and sonstantly denigrating him and threatening milk supports for Vermont Vheney pushed Jeffords to caucus with the Democrats.  Way to break the tie, Dick.  From January 2003 through January 2007 the Republican glory years broke out.  Following the 2002 election Republicans had a modest 229 seats in the House and 51 in the Senate.  With the elction of 2004 it spread to 229 House seats and a 55-45 Senate edge.  Then came Katrina.  And Iraq’s death toll mounting.

Since then, it’s been our time.

Let’s start looking at the seat that freezer-burn cash built.

-Helena Moreno (D), TV Personality

-William Jefferson (D), former Congressman

-Karen Carter Peterson (D), Speaker Pro Tem, State House

-Edwin Murray (D), State Senator

-Cheryl Gray (D), State Senator

-Keva Landrum Johnson, New Orleans District Attorney

Every week, I am going to try to start up a new thread on a possible cool race to identify possible candidates.

Probable Democrats:

I see the two clear front runners being people who have run before against Jefferson, Helena Moreno, and Karen Carter Peterson.  EDIT: Cedric Richmond has been added.  See bios:

-Helena Moreno (D):

Throughout her college years, Helena wrote for the SMU college newspaper, The Daily Campus. She interned with KHOU-TV and KTRK-TV in Houston. In 1999, Helena graduated and immediately began working as a television reporter in Savannah, Georgia’s WTOC. In short order, she began anchoring on the weekends. One year later, Hearst-Argyle Broadcasting Corporation recruited Helena to report for its New Orleans station, WDSU-TV.

Her journalistic talents earned top honors from the Associated Press and Press Club of New Orleans. She was part of the team that earned an EMMY for outstanding coverage of Hurricane Katrina. During Katrina, Helena reported non-stop for 18 hours through the worst of the storm, and then reported throughout the recovery.

http://www.morenoforcongress.com/

She took 43% of the primary vote away from Jefferson this time around and would make a formidable candidate again.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2…

-Karen Carter Peterson (D)

Peterson is a political protégé of Jim Singleton, a former city councilman and the leader of the powerful BOLD political organization. With the help of BOLD, Peterson was elected in 1999 to the Louisiana state legislature as a representative for the 93rd district, which encompasses New Orleans’s CBD, the upper French Quarter, and parts of Central City and Mid-City. In the state legislature, she was one of the most vocal supporters of a plan to reform the New Orleans public school system by putting it under state control, and was a backer of the levee board consolidation bill. Peterson is a member of the moderate Democratic Leadership Council.

http://house.louisiana.gov/H_R…

She took 49% in 2006 again Jefferson, and can make the claim that she alone was fighting against him and his corruption.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K…

-Cedric Richmond (D)

After passing the Louisiana Bar Exam, Cedric was elected to the Louisiana House of Representatives where he has been a leader and served with distinction since 2000. Currently, he is the Chairman of the committee on Judiciary and a member of the Ways and Means, House Executive, and Legislative Audit Advisory committees.

Cedric has been instrumental in many important issues in the legislature. He created the State New Markets Tax Credit program which spurred over 250 million dollars in investment in Louisiana’s devastated areas after the storms of 2005. He also secured funding for small business incubators and grant programs. As a member of the and Co-chairman of the Legislative Audit Advisory committee, Cedric was vital in ending the waste and misappropriation of funds in the Orleans Parish School system.

During his tenure in office, Cedric has remained a strong advocate for the people of his district and vows to continue to keep fighting to make tomorrow and all of the tomorrows to come better.

He got 17% against Jefferson and Moreno is 2008 in the Democratic Primary.

http://www400.sos.louisiana.go…

Other Dems:

Now, there are other democrats who could make an entry, from what I can tell, who would be good.  I have listed them below and provided links:

-Edwin Murray (D), State Senator

Represents the French quarter and has served in some post since 1992.  Is well known in the district and could be the only bona-fide male running which would be to his advantage.  

http://www.edwinmurray.com/ind…

-Cheryl Gray (D), State Senator

Gray appears to highlight her crime and education reform issues, which is appealing in New Orleans post-Katrina.  

http://www.electcherylgray.com…

-Keva Landrum Johnson, New Orleans District Attorney

Might be appealing because she is African-American, a woman, and someone who is viewed with genuine respect.  Is a registered Democrat.  

http://blog.nola.com/times-pic…

So, who is missing?  How needs to be eliminated?  Who needs to be considered more closely?  Is Jefferson going to run again?

Congressman elect Cao is behind schedule so the show will be a little later this afternoon. We will try and give a  10-15 minute notice

We are doing a podcast with Joseph Cao (LA-02) this afternoon. We will be focusing on Cao becoming the first Vietnamese-American Congressman. Fascinating story.

Click on this link to check it out. If you miss it you can click on the link on site later and listen to the podcast.

Congressman Cao on Blog Talk Radio