Author: politicalal

This has not been a good past 48 hours for National Republican Campaign Committee chair Pete Sessions. In fact the past two days have been horrible. Perhaps Sessions should fly out to Vegas for one of his risque fundraisers . Badump Tish

First The earmarks flap

Then the recruiting flap where he fails to get top prospect John McKinley to take on Jim Himes (CT-04).

And now we are finding out there are all kinds of holes in his Young Guns Project . Well if you call it Young Guns – not sure that some of his catches count as “Young”.

Keep up the good work Pete and you might be left with just the wignuttiest of the wignuttery in Congress. No complaints here. But the NRCC might want to second guess its decision to put you in charge. Well you are probably taking the rest of the boys to Vegas for another Leadership PAC fundraiser so I’m sure they are just looking forward to a couple of lap dances and craps.

1. Strike One

According to Pete

earmarks have become “a symbol of a broken Washington to the American people

So it’s probably no surprise that He doesn’t tell us on his website that in 2008 he steered 1.6 million to a company doing some research on a blimp. The company has no experience in government contracts, no experience in building airships or blimps and it just by the way employed a former Sessions staffer as a lobbyist. And the best part that former staffer turned lobbyist has a criminal record.

Oh and by the way this father son team (The Fergusons) that own this company – contributed $5,000 to Sessions Leadership Pac in 2007.

Wonder if they were at the Vegas Risque fundraiser.

And not only was this former staffer Plesha convicted on a gun charge but he also has a criminal record from some FEC violations related to lying to investigators about creating some false mailers.

Oh and see Pete here while Jeff Flake talks about earmarks today

2. Strike Two

Sessions announced on Tuesday

There are people proactively coming to us. We are doing far less recruiting and more catching.”

That’s a day before

“Republicans’ hopes of ousting freshman Democrat Jim Himes in Connecticut’s 4th District suffered a serious blow, as heavily recruited GOP state legislator John McKinney has taken himself out of the running.” [CQ Politics, 7/30/09]

Maybe you should be doing more recruiting then Pete.

3. Strike Three

Oh and then we just found out from this article that Sessions thinks that Mississipi State Senator Alan Nunnelee (see below) is running in Alabama against Freshman Parker Griffith (AL-05). h/t to Left in Alabama for this discovery

A few top candidates who entered their races in the last month have yet to be placed on the list but could be soon. Sessions said, for instance, that Alabama state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, who just announced he would challenge Rep. Parker Griffith (D-Ala.), would soon be a part of the program.

Way to be on top of it sport. Nunnelee has announced to run against Blue Dog Travis Childers (MS-01). The one that the NRCC ran the same candidate against in a Special Election and then a few months later again in the General and lost both times.

Not sure that this Nunellee guy (see below) really qualifies as a “Young Gun” either

But as Swing State Project points out that being young is not really a requirement of the “Young Guns” program

And let’s leave aside the issue of calling 62 year-old Steve Pearce and 56 year-old Steve Chabot “Young Guns” for the moment.

You are outtttttttttttt of there buddy. See ya in Vegas.  

First Quarter 2009 FEC Reports have started rolling in and Michele Bachmann put up a pretty impressive number. According to MNPublius

Bachmann

Raised – $314,000

Cash on Hand – $224,000

Okay folks you’ve been following all the crazy comments she’s made lately. It’s time to start raising money to combat her. If we don’t fund a candidate in MN-06 with a heavy war-chest then Bachmann will be free to spread that money around to some of her embattled counterparts.

$5, $10, $15 to the MN-06 Dem nominee fund will add up quickly

We have added the MN-06 Democratic nominee funds to the list of candidates we will be supporting in 2010. I chose this for several reasons and the most encouraging being the latest Michele Bachmann comments that we posted yesterday. Bachmann is perhaps the most divisive politician on the National scene.

Help us now as we do all we can to level the playing field for the eventual nominee who will run against her in 2010. A number of $5, $10 and $20 contributions to whoever she will face will provide an early assist to take her down.

As soon as we find out if there is a leading contender to take on Bachmann whether it be the 2008 nominee Tinklenberg or someone else we will gladly support them.

So we are still about a year and a half away from the 2010 primary election and you must be thinking I’m insane. However, I indicated about a week ago that I was going to make an announcement early in my 2010 endorsement for the Alabama 7th Congressional District seat. Not only am I making an endorsement, but I am announcing to going to be working with  Shelia Smoot who  just formed a committee to be a candidate for the seat to be vacated by Artur Davis.

I’m telling everyone now so that they will know where I am coming from when I talk about this race or my candidate. I have found that I like it when bloggers are candid in their affiliations with candidates. So I am practicing what I preach.   Below the thread is more info on my candidate.  

Why Smoot?

I have known Shelia since 2001 and believe that she would be an excellent representative for the constituents of the 7th Congressional District. I find her to be concerned about all people and always willing to lend a helping hand. I’ve talked to people throughout the country that have stories about how Shelia helped them in some capacity.

She also will surround herself with competent people who understand the issues important to those in her community. She knows that transportation and infrastructure, health care, senior housing and creation of jobs are the most pressing of those issues in the 7th Congressional District.

I know several other candidates will likely announce and I welcome all of those to enter the race. I believe that it will be a spirited campaign that will be about how to improve the quality of life in the 7th Congressional District.

I know some of the other potential candidates and I genuinely like them. I think this will be an election with good options. I also have friends who will be working with some of the other candidates.

While not a factor in my choice, I also think it is time that we send the first African American Female to Congress. Alabama needs a female representative in Congress and Shelia Smoot has been a trailblazer throughout her career as a journalist and as a politician.

Our website is under construction, so please let me know if you have any questions or comments.  

Tomorrow afternoon, Thursday December 11, 2008, we have a specially scheduled Progressive Electorate Blog Talk Radio Show at 4:00 p.m. with Blue Dixie Author Bob Moser .

Bob Moser is an awarding-winning political correspondent who has chronicled Southern politics for nearly two decades. He authored one of my favorite political books in recent memory.

Blue Dixie takes you through a journey of the changing face of American politics. Moser moves us through the political maze, maybe landmine, of the GOP “Southern Strategy” to the inclusive 50 State Strategy of the past few years. Bill Moser uniquely ties together discussions about Southern politics through his observations.

Blue Dixie offers a lot of insight and teaches us some important lessons about politics in the South. Moser writes like a interested political observer rather than an academic scholar or a misinformed journalist. Please join us tomorrow as we talk to Moser about the 2008 election and the changing dynamics of politics.

I will be giving away a copy of Blue Dixie during the show so please tune in. You must be listening to win. Use the icon below to link directly to the show on Thursday afternoon.

Congressman elect Cao is behind schedule so the show will be a little later this afternoon. We will try and give a  10-15 minute notice

We are doing a podcast with Joseph Cao (LA-02) this afternoon. We will be focusing on Cao becoming the first Vietnamese-American Congressman. Fascinating story.

Click on this link to check it out. If you miss it you can click on the link on site later and listen to the podcast.

Congressman Cao on Blog Talk Radio

We are having our first election projection contest. The deadline to enter is midnight on Monday November 3. However, I’m going to leave it open till when I get going in the morning for all you that are just seeing this. Please enter your predictions in the comments thread on The Progressive Electorate site only or email them to me at admin@progressiveelectorate.com.

The winner will receive a $25 Amazon Gift Card. 2nd place will receive a $10 Amazon Gift Card. 3rd place will receive a $5 Amazon Gift Card.

Here are the races

1. Missouri Presidential – Obama vs. MCain

2. North Carolina Senate – Hagan (D) vs. Dole (R)

3. Alabama 02 – Bobby Bright (D) vs Jay Love (R)

4. Obama over 45% in Texas – Yes or NO

5. Georgia Senate – Will there be a runoff yes or no?

6. New Mexico 02 – Harry Teague (D) Vs. Ed Tinsley)

7. Washington’s Gov’s Race Gregoire (D) vs. Rossi (R)

8. FLA 25 – Mario Diaz Balart (R) v Joe Garcia (D)

9. At least two Dem incumbents will lose: Yes or No

10. SC 01 – Henry Brown (R incumbent) vs. Linda Ketner (Democrat)

Bonus Question(a): State with largest Obama margin of victory (excluding D.C.)

Bonus Question(b): State with largest McCain margin of Victory

Tie breaker:  Dean Barkley’s percentage of the vote in Minnesota Senate Race

Rules

1. Submissions in the thread or by email to admin@progressiveelectorate.com

2. Submissions received no later than 12 midnight central time on Monday November 03

3. Highest total score wins – 16 total possible points

4. Tiebreaker will apply in case of tie

5. Each race or question valued at 1 point

6. Two bonus questions worth 3 points

7. Progressive Electorate is the official decider or democracy for this contest

Sample entry below

Sample Entry

1. Obama wins Missouri

2. Dole wins NC Senate

3. Bright wins AL-02

4. Obama yes over 45% in Texas

5. No Georgia Runoff

6. Teague wins NM-02

7. Gregoire wins

8   Garcia wins

9.  Yes two Dem incumbents lose

10. Brown wins

Bonus Question a – Illinois

Bonus Question B – Utah

Tie Breaker: Barkley gets 16%

Based on a Sept 30- Oct 1 poll by Capital Survey Research , Mike Rogers leads Josh Segall 44.9 % to 36.9%. Rogers got 212 votes while Segall got 171 votes. And 88 were still undecided.

I’ve been told from a couple of reliable folks that Segall is polling with African Americans right at 70%. If you move that number to a more realistic 95% based on past election data and the high number of African Americans that will likely vote straight ticket this cycle you get a totally different picture.

We know that 32% of the 471 sample are African Americans which equates to 151 voters.

So instead of Segall getting 106 votes from African Americans he would get 143 based on getting 95%. So let’s take 7 from Rogers (18.9%) and 30 from the undecided voters (81%) and not change any other variables. We would think it would be more likely that those African Americans coming over to Segall would be from the undecided votes rather than from the Rogers voters.

Rogers would have 205 votes    43.5%

Segall would have 208 votes     44.2%

and we would have 58 undecided voters  12.3%

Even if you move the number down to 85% to 90% of the African American Voters going Segall’s way, this race is still within just a couple of points. We could certainly expect that even at the 85-90% the sheer numbers of African American turnout could be high enough to make up the difference based on registration numbers and the Obama factor.  

Why this matters?

Six years ago, Rogers only beat Joe Turnham by 3800. Remember that the DCCC pulled out with two weeks to go and Turnham went dead on the air.

If we could convince the DCCC to assist in purchasing the last two weeks worth of advertising, Segall would have a definite shot at winning this race. To go dead would probably put us in the same predicament as Turnham. The good news is that Segall is peaking at the absolute best time and you could expect that he takes a lot more White and Older voters based on the economy taking center stage.

We need your help. Please jump in and donate a couple of bucks for this race. Encourage other bloggers and pundits to take a look at turning an Alabama red seat blue.

Our Act Blue Page

A Capital Survey Research (Gerald Johnson) poll has Mike Rogers leading Josh Segall 44.9 % to 36.4 %. 18.7% of people polled remain undecided. The polling sample was 471 people taken Sep.30-Oct. 1, 2008

with a margin error of  +/-4.5%.

The August poll taken by Capital Survey Research showed Rogers leading 54% to 32.5 % for Segall with only 13.6% undecided.

Segall has improved by 4 points while Rogers has dropped 9 points. We have 5% more undecided from the August poll

A number of thoughts stick out including:

1. Mike Rogers is well under 50%, a clear sign that an incumbent is in trouble.

2. The Bubba Ads did not help Mike Rogers polling numbers.

3. More voters are undecided after seeing ads from both candidates.

4. Rogers went from a substantial 22% lead to a 9%. Segall cutting Rogers lead in more than half is another sure sign that Rogers is in trouble.

5. A serious gas shortage has been reported in the Talladega to Anniston areas. That does not bode well for Rogers.

**Reminder – Josh Segall will also be a guest on The Progressive Electorate Blog Talk Radio Show This Sunday