Author: peebles

From PPP

When it comes to whether they would prefer to see Kennedy or Andrew Cuomo

appointed, 58% now prefer Cuomo to 27% for Kennedy.  Cuomo is favored by 65% of

Republicans, 59% of independents, and 54% of Democrats.  A PPP survey conducted a

month ago showed Cuomo as the top choice for just 23% of Democrats, compared to

44% who wanted Kennedy.

“When Caroline Kennedy was first mentioned as a possible Senate appointee there was a

lot of enthusiasm among New York Democrats about her,” said Dean Debnam, President

of Public Policy Polling.  “Her reputation has taken a pretty clear hit over the last month,

and if Governor Paterson does end up appointing her she’s going to have some work to

do to overcome this bad first impression she’s made on New York voters.”

57% of New Yorkers view Andrew Cuomo favorably with just 20% having an

unfavorable opinion of him.  For Kennedy the numbers are 44% favorable and 40%

unfavorable.

PPP surveyed 700 New York voters on January 3rd and 4th.  The survey’s margin of error

is +/-3.7%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce

additional error that is more difficult to quantify.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

EDIT:

New York State voters have cooled on Caroline Kennedy and more voters now prefer State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 31 – 24 percent for Hillary Clinton’s U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney gets 6 percent, with 5 percent for U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, 2 percent for U.S. Rep. Steve Israel, 18 percent for someone else and 14 percent undecided.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128…

The most striking thing in this poll to me is the lowering of Kennedy’s favorable from a previous poll, and the rapid increase in Cuomo’s favorables and choice of New Yorkers’ of him as the next Senator.

Doesn’t this mean that Patterson should move quickly to appoint, given that he has interviewed about 15 people and because the public is so far in one person’s corner.  

EDIT: Also look at the q poll which shows a smaller margin.

Or is Cuomo not the right person?

Given the voting results in 2008, we should actually be very hopeful for 2010.  Obama took 52.41% to McCain’s 45.99%, while Paulsen took 48.48% to Madia’s 40.85%.  The outlier?  An independent candidate taking 10.56%.  

So, who are our best candidates going into 2010 to unseat this incumbent?

-Terri Bonoff (D), State Senator

-Ashwin Madia (D), Iraq War Veteran, past candidate in 2008

-Jim Hovland (D), Mayor of Edina

-Paul Rosenthal (D), State Representatives

All three of these candidates, except for Rosenthal, have “run” in the past, and are known in the community.  If one has to handicap the race, it is clear that Madia was a disappointment to DFLers, which would give Bonoff the clear opportunity to step up and challenge Paulson.  

See below for bios and more analysis.

Probable Candidates:

Terri E. Bonoff is a Democratic Farmer Labor Party member of the Minnesota Senate, representing District 43 since a special election in November 2005. Her district includes portions of Minnetonka, Plymouth and Medicine Lake.

Bonoff serves as Vice Chair of the E-12 Budget Division, and as a member of the Education Committee, the Business, Industry and Jobs Committee, and the Transportation Budget and Policy Committee. Her stated legislative interests include education, transportation, health care and the environment.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T…

Madia was endorsed by VoteVets.org.[6] He was also endorsed by the Teamsters Local 120[7] and the United Auto Workers Minnesota State CAP Council.[8] Because of his progressive views on LGBT issues, Madia also received the endorsement of Minnesota StonewallDFL [9] LGBT group and eQualityGiving.[10]

According to Madia’s website, he hoped to “draw on his record of leadership, service, and advocacy to represent the 3rd District in the U.S. Congress. Madia ran on positions such as ending the war in Iraq responsibly, balancing the budget, addressing global warming, expanding access to health care, renewing the federal commitment to education, and safeguarding constitutional liberties”. He also said that he will abide by the endorsement of Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.

Ashwin Madia earned a majority of delegates at the senate district conventions that took place across the 3rd District on March 1[11], March 8[12], and March 15.[13]. At the 3rd District DFL endorsing convention, which took place on April 12, 2008, Madia and his final opponent, State Senator Terri Bonoff, competed with indecisive results through eight ballots. Following the eighth ballot, Bonoff dropped out.[14]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A…

I am not going to post much about Hovland because I don’t think he has a chance given he didn’t get a delegate in the DFL race.

Here is the person I think could come out of nowhere.  Paul Rosenthal, newley elected State Representative of 41B.

Altogether, my personal and professional experiences have introduced me to many issues that create either opportunities or roadblocks for our state, businesses and neighborhoods.  My parents taught me that one person who stops complaining and works hard can achieve solutions. Now, I want my own children to see that lesson in action.

I was drawn to Minnesota 17 years ago because I saw it as a model of social progress, good jobs and fiscal responsibility.  Working together, we can make state government work for Minnesotans again in the 21st century.

Now, I don’t want to relive the battles of 2008, but there were a lot of discussions about Paulsen’s education stances, and if Rosenthal really delved into education as Vice Chair of the Early Childhood Finance and Policy Division, then he could attack Paulsen very easily, either in 2 or 4 years.  

The typical route the DFL goes, from what my memory serves, is that they will go back to the next strongest candidate as opposed to looking to new ones.  That means that State Senator Terri Bonoff will be the person that most people see as the front runner.

Also, Bonoff is slated to be the main person, according to my friend in her district, on education reform, which would lend to her ability to counter Paulsen.  

So, who is missing here?  Any other surprises that we could expect?  

Also, what suggestions do you have for me for these threads?

Let’s start looking at the seat that freezer-burn cash built.

-Helena Moreno (D), TV Personality

-William Jefferson (D), former Congressman

-Karen Carter Peterson (D), Speaker Pro Tem, State House

-Edwin Murray (D), State Senator

-Cheryl Gray (D), State Senator

-Keva Landrum Johnson, New Orleans District Attorney

Every week, I am going to try to start up a new thread on a possible cool race to identify possible candidates.

Probable Democrats:

I see the two clear front runners being people who have run before against Jefferson, Helena Moreno, and Karen Carter Peterson.  EDIT: Cedric Richmond has been added.  See bios:

-Helena Moreno (D):

Throughout her college years, Helena wrote for the SMU college newspaper, The Daily Campus. She interned with KHOU-TV and KTRK-TV in Houston. In 1999, Helena graduated and immediately began working as a television reporter in Savannah, Georgia’s WTOC. In short order, she began anchoring on the weekends. One year later, Hearst-Argyle Broadcasting Corporation recruited Helena to report for its New Orleans station, WDSU-TV.

Her journalistic talents earned top honors from the Associated Press and Press Club of New Orleans. She was part of the team that earned an EMMY for outstanding coverage of Hurricane Katrina. During Katrina, Helena reported non-stop for 18 hours through the worst of the storm, and then reported throughout the recovery.

http://www.morenoforcongress.com/

She took 43% of the primary vote away from Jefferson this time around and would make a formidable candidate again.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2…

-Karen Carter Peterson (D)

Peterson is a political protégé of Jim Singleton, a former city councilman and the leader of the powerful BOLD political organization. With the help of BOLD, Peterson was elected in 1999 to the Louisiana state legislature as a representative for the 93rd district, which encompasses New Orleans’s CBD, the upper French Quarter, and parts of Central City and Mid-City. In the state legislature, she was one of the most vocal supporters of a plan to reform the New Orleans public school system by putting it under state control, and was a backer of the levee board consolidation bill. Peterson is a member of the moderate Democratic Leadership Council.

http://house.louisiana.gov/H_R…

She took 49% in 2006 again Jefferson, and can make the claim that she alone was fighting against him and his corruption.  

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K…

-Cedric Richmond (D)

After passing the Louisiana Bar Exam, Cedric was elected to the Louisiana House of Representatives where he has been a leader and served with distinction since 2000. Currently, he is the Chairman of the committee on Judiciary and a member of the Ways and Means, House Executive, and Legislative Audit Advisory committees.

Cedric has been instrumental in many important issues in the legislature. He created the State New Markets Tax Credit program which spurred over 250 million dollars in investment in Louisiana’s devastated areas after the storms of 2005. He also secured funding for small business incubators and grant programs. As a member of the and Co-chairman of the Legislative Audit Advisory committee, Cedric was vital in ending the waste and misappropriation of funds in the Orleans Parish School system.

During his tenure in office, Cedric has remained a strong advocate for the people of his district and vows to continue to keep fighting to make tomorrow and all of the tomorrows to come better.

He got 17% against Jefferson and Moreno is 2008 in the Democratic Primary.

http://www400.sos.louisiana.go…

Other Dems:

Now, there are other democrats who could make an entry, from what I can tell, who would be good.  I have listed them below and provided links:

-Edwin Murray (D), State Senator

Represents the French quarter and has served in some post since 1992.  Is well known in the district and could be the only bona-fide male running which would be to his advantage.  

http://www.edwinmurray.com/ind…

-Cheryl Gray (D), State Senator

Gray appears to highlight her crime and education reform issues, which is appealing in New Orleans post-Katrina.  

http://www.electcherylgray.com…

-Keva Landrum Johnson, New Orleans District Attorney

Might be appealing because she is African-American, a woman, and someone who is viewed with genuine respect.  Is a registered Democrat.  

http://blog.nola.com/times-pic…

So, who is missing?  How needs to be eliminated?  Who needs to be considered more closely?  Is Jefferson going to run again?

Chris Cilliza is reporting that Patrick Murphy will stay out, according to his sources.

Reps. Joe Sestak and Patrick J. Murphy: Sestak isn’t interested; Murphy has been more coy but ultimately will stay out, our sources say.

He also mentions the other probables:

Joe Torsella: Torsella’s name might be familiar to political junkies, as he ran a well-funded but ultimately unsuccessful primary against Rep. Allyson Schwartz in 2004 for the open 13th Congressional District seat. Torsella went on to raise the money for and then run the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. An X factor in Torsella’s favor? He is very close to Gov. Ed Rendell, having served as a deputy mayor when Rendell ruled Philadelphia.

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Allyson Y. Schwartz: The congresswoman has run for the Senate — she lost a primary to then-Rep. Ron Klink in 2000 — and has made no secret of her interest in another statewide bid. Schwartz would almost certainly have the financial and organizational support of Emily’s List, a powerful chit in her favor, particularly in a Democratic primary. Schwartz’s hurdle is whether she can sell herself as a candidate outside the Philadelphia media market.

Jack Wagner: The state’s auditor general is the lone candidate seriously considering the race who comes from the western part of the state, a huge advantage in a state where geography looms large. Wagner is mulling a run for governor, and there is some sense among political sharps that he will ultimately take that route.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

To me, the most appealing name there is Rep. Schwartz who is a solid progressive and has shown electability.  She however, would have to work on outside Philly, which is something that I think she could do.

Another person who I think would be incredibly appealing is Chris Carney (PA-10) because of his moderate appeal and work on veterans issues.  He is not that progressive, but he is a Democrat and has shown an ability to get elected by Republicans (PA-10 is a solid Republican district).

Ultimately, a Democrat will win Philly, but should they be able to win Pittsburg (west) and the norhtern areas?

EDIT: Edited title to reflect true nature of article.