New Indiana numbers

Research 2000 came out with some new Senate numbers that highly different from what Rasmussen released. Surprisingly John Hostettler outperforms Coats by a large margin. Hill slightly outperforms Ellsworth, but he has already declined to run. They also check out Jim Schellinger who does better than I thought he would do. I think this poll proves that you shouldn’t write off Indiana and don’t take one Rasmussen poll to heart.

http://www.dailykos.com/statep…

Hostettler-40%

Ellsworth-34%

Coats-37%

Ellsworth-36%

Hostettler-42%

Hill-36%

Coats-37%

Hill-37%

Hostettler-44%

Schellinger-33%

Coats-39%

Schellinger-34%

   

Update

I thought I would post the Rasmussen numbers as well, you can compare and contrast.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

John Hostettler-46%

Brad Ellsworth-27%

Dan Coats-46%

Brad Ellsworth-32%

John Hostettler-49%

Baron Hill-31%

Dan Coats-48%

Baron Hill-32%

 

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Possible replacement candidates for Hill and Ellsworth

Most speculation has indicated that both Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill are the current frontrunners to take Evan Bayh’s place. I have compiled a list of the bench we have in both districts. I am from the ninth and know much more about it than I do about the eighth. If I left off any potential candidates please let me know.

          8th

Of course the best candidate, Jon Weinzapfel, has already ruled the bid out. That really sucks, because he would sail through the election. However I suppose he wants to be Governor. Like I previously stated I don’t know a whole lot about the 8th but I did my best.

*Bob Deig- State senator from Evansville since 2006. He has a strong pro guns and life voting record similar to that of Ellsworth’s,

*Lindel Hume- He is a state senator from Princeton. He has served in the state senate since 1982 and was a member of the state house from 1974 until his election to the senate.

* Dale Grubb – He is a state representative that has served since 1988 and is currently Democratic Caucus Chair.

*Dennis Avery- He is a state rep from Evansville who has served since 1974.

*Trent Van Haaften- He is a state rep from Evansville, who is also a well respected lawyer that could possibly self finance.

* Anne Slaughter Andrew, Ambassador to Costa Rica, and wife of former the former DNC chair.

        9th

The 9th is one that will probably be gerrymandered to death after the census, so this is more than likely Hill’s last term. So if we lose his district it is not the end of the world. Now as the district stands it is my view that neither Hill or Sodrel have ever been liked by the voters, so having a fresh democrat to take on Sodrel wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

*Doug England- Mayor of New Albany who I think would have the ability to self finance.

*Vi Simpson- She is the current Minority leader of the state senate from Bloomington. She is currently sitting on about $250,000. She is a known liberal, but she could still win.

*Mark Kruzman- He is the current mayor of Bloomington, and former state house majority leader.

*Paul Young- State Senator who was briefly a candidate for Governor last year, although he is up for re-election and might not want to risk it.

*Paul Robertson- The State house majority whip who has served in the house since 1978. He is an old teacher of mine. He is well loved in Harrison County, by both democrats and republicans.

*Theodore “Buck” Mathis- Well this one is me being kinda stupid, but I will put it anyway. Buck is the Harrison county commissioner who is about as good ol’ boy democrat as they come. He always wears overalls, has a large beard and drives a 30 year old truck. He is a farmer, and EVERYONE in Harrison, Crawford, and Floyd County knows who he is. The down side to a Buck candidacy is that he would not be able to self finance, and he probably doesn’t own a suite, and I am 100% serious on that one.

*Connie Sipes- State Senator from New Albany, who is retiring this year anyways. She is a former high school principal, and she is very popular in Floyd County.

*Gordan Ingle- He is a Corydon Indiana attorney who is loaded and well connected. If you want someone to self finance then he is your guy.

*John Mellencamp- This is just a pipe dream I thought up, but Mellencamp is an Indiana legend who is still living in Indiana. You can see him at IU games all of the time. I believe he owns property both in Seymour and Bloomington. There is NO WAY Mellencamp would lose, although there is also probably no way he would run either.

I will try to add more names if I think of them, and if you want to give me some ideas as well it would be great. I know my list in the eighth is especially weak.

I am not sure which district would be easier to defend, although neither will be a cake walk I promise you. What district do you think we have a better shot at?

Update

As GOPVOTER has pointed out, Hill has some non credible primary opposition. If Hill did run then I think someone would be able to run a write in campaign for the nomination.

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IN Senate-Update, Ellsworth seems likely + New info

Since Evan Bayh surprise retirement a lot has happened in terms of candidates.

The following have declined interest or did not qualify.

*Joe Kernan- Like I said he likes retirement too much.

*Jonathan Weinzapfel- He has also stated he will not run for Congress if Ellsworth runs for Senate.

* Bart Peterson- Shocker

* Tamyra d’Ippolito- Yes!

*Joe Hogsett- Who cares?

*Pete Visclosky- I suppose he will be to busy with his family. Or it could just be that he is fighting corruption charges.

* Roy Dominguez- He is the Lake County Sheriff and I never considered him to begin with.

Also from what I have heard it sounds like Tim Roemer likes his current job too much, but nothing official yet.

We also have one announced canidate Thomas McDermott, Jr., the mayor of Hammond and chairman of the Lake County Democratic Party. I don’t know a whole lot about McDermott, but he sounds like a serious candidate.

Ellsworth has said he is seriously considering it, and from what I can tell he seems like he wants to do it. He will do an 18 county listening tour, and that sounds like he means business.

Hill is currently on an overseas trip with the troops and has not given any comments regarding the run, although there are many rumors circulating that he is already collecting signatures for the run, although I don’t think that is true. It was a rumor originally created by Tamyra d’Ippolito, and I would not call her the best place to get political news from.

Also there is currently a draft John Mellencamp effort going on. While I love Mellencamp and his music, I really don’t think its going to happen.

I will try and update this as much as possible.  

Update

Joe Donnelly has now declined to run, looks like its down to Ellsworth and Hill.

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A list of potential candidates for U.S. Senate in Indiana

This is my first diary, so I hope it is well liked. Evan Bayh has now left us with a challenging job of finding a good replacement for him. Please don’t write off this seat just yet, we do have a good shot. So I will now present my list.

*Brad Ellsworth- Popular Congressman from Evansville, who was voted most attractive member of Congress, and who has thrived in a usual conservative district. He is my top choice, and I would love to see him do it.

*Baron Hill- He is my Congressman, and a damn good one at that. He ran statewide once against Coats and despite all odds came very close to beating him. He made a name for himself by walking across the state. The problem here is that he already has two random primary challengers so his seat would be easily one by Mike Sodrel.

*Joe Donnelley- A representative from Northern Indiana, who one in with the popular wave of other dems in 2006. He ran unsuccessfully for Attorney General in the nineties, loosing the primary.

*Tim Roemer- Former Congressman from South Bend who is now U.S. ambassador to India. He is popular among conservatives and in my view would be a good candidate.

*Jon Weinsapfel- Current popular Mayor of Evansville, who is known as a Washington outsider. Although he seems more interested in a gubernatorial bid in 2012.

*Joe Kernan- The former Governor, who took over when Frank O’bannon died. He was the former Mayor of South Bend. I think he enjoys retirement too much though.

*Joe Andrew- Former DNC chair, who was originally a candidate for Governor in 2004 before Kernan decided to run.

*Bart Peterson- Former Mayor of Indianapolis who was defeated in 2007. I am not from Indy but I don’t think he is that popular there.

*Jill Long Thompson- I hate to mention her but I will anyway. She is a former Congresswoman and undersecretary of Agriculture who had her butt handed to her by Mitch Daniels in 2008.

*Vi Simpson- State Senate minority leader who originally ran for Governor in 2004 before Kernan decided to enter.

*Jim Schellinger- A Indianapolis architect who barely lost the 2008 democratic primary to JLT.

*Joe Hogsett- I heard some people mention him. He is the former SoS. Although he served in the mid nineties.

*Patrick Bauer- The State house speaker who is not that popular, but hey who knows?

I could go on but these are the best I could think of off the top of my head. I really hope it helps. BTW, I HATE EVAN BAYH!!!!!

I would like to hear what you have to say. Who should take Bayh’s place?

Update

Cross Joe Kernan off the list, although I really didn’t think he would run anyway.

Another Update

Also cross Jonathan Weinzapfel off the list, I think he has his eyes on a gubernatorial run or a run for Congress if Ellsworth makes the plunge. Also it looks like Ellsworth is thinking it over at least, his office released the following statement. The Congressman says he will discuss the choice with his wife and family over the next few days before making a decision.        

http://tristatehomepage.com/co…

Sorry yet another update

Thomas McDermott, Jr., the mayor of Hammond and chairman of the Lake County Democratic Party will seek the nomination. Also Bart Peterson is out.

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