Gloom and doom, the storm is coming anything with a D by its name is going down and going down hard. Diary after diary with ever troubling news. Yes the world is coming to an end. Don’t you get tired of this?
All this gloom and doom is just down right depressing. Seriously the tone here sometimes is plain and simply mournful. I am not saying it is not going to be a bad year, I am bracing myself for a House loss. However let me share with you a narrative from my youth that I love to tell.
When I was younger my great aunt was very active in the local dem party. She was a community organizer and volunteer before it was cool. She would go door to door, drag her husband out to put up signs. A lot of local candidates called her the de facto campaign manager. She even got mentioned in the local newspaper as the Mother of the Harrison County Democratic Party. She was perhaps best known for making a speech at the December meeting of the local Democratic Party after the November election. In the meeting she would stand up and always say “Wow, it is a GREAT year to be a Democrat”.
Whether it had been a horrible year or not it did not matter, she would harp onto the positive telling of all the successes and not even mention the losses. We could have lost the Sheriffs race (the Presidential race in Harrison County politics) and many others but picked up a meager county council seat. Well we would hear her tell us of how that city councilman elect is going to do so much good and she would make us feel like we won every election with her optimistic attitude.
I am not asking everyone to be unrealistic and say everything is good but let’s take a moment to look at what is going good in this cycle. Good in 2010, I know weird to hear those in the same sentence referring to dems. I want you to pretend to be my Great Aunt except you are making that speech to a room full of dem political junkies who follow every election. What will be the races you tell to the crowd to provide comfort? Here is my list.
My First list (the near sure things)
(these are not in any sort of order)
1. Alex Sink- I honestly believe that Sink will win this November. Scott greatly helps her. I do not think the race should be taken for granted, I could see a Scott win, and that is truly horrifying but I think Sink will get a win. I hope so at least. I do not know why anyone would vote Scott. That man belongs in prison not the Governor’s mansion.
2. Mark Dayton- I believe we saw a poll showing this a tied race but that poll had the electorate at a huge Republican, was it 47 percent? All other polling shows a Dayton landslide. I expect him to win 7-8% at least.
3. John Carney- If polling is an indicator then we should pick this seat up easily. I know his opponent has gotten a lot of hype but she is not that threatening and while Castle will undoubtedly win I doubt he gives the same coattails that we expected at the beginning of the cycle. I think he will win by say 6-7% not enough to bring down Carney.
4. Dan Malloy- He is heavily favored in Connecticut and he is nice to have for a future Senate run as well.
5. Cedric Richmond- Until I see non biased internal polling I doubt Cao can win. I think he will be close-ish, much more so than he should but I am sorry his vote against HCR ruined any chances he had in my view. At best I think he loses by only 7 or 8 points, which is an impressive performance actually. This is one of the few districts were Obama can help Richmond. All Richmond needs to do is peg Cao as the anti Obama who voted against the stimulus and HCR. Hit him hard for HCR.
6. Colleen Hannabusa- Her and Richmond are fixing mistakes but they are a pickup all the same.
7. Hawaii Dem- Whoever wins the primary is overwhelmingly favored in the general to be the next Governor of Hawaii.
8. Dan Seals- I do not think we have seen a poll showing him losing. That includes polling from the ever shady We Ask America.
9. Joe Garcia- I debated putting him into the category below but I feel fairly good about this race as he is a GREAT candidate and the Republican is a horribly flawed one.
List Two (candidates who could win but are tossups)
(No order either)
1. Jack Conway- Thanks to baggers Conway has a shot. Conway is the perfect candidate he really is. The year will keep this close and probably deliver us a Paul win but this is not guaranteed I still think this race could change course and fast. The ads literally write themselves. I have seen Conway’s tough cop ad a lot over the last week and have been impressed by it. Conway is young energetic and down right perfect. I encourage everyone to watch his fancy farm speech, his second one not the profanity one. That speech was darn good. Put that in ad form and this race narrows a lot. If anyone in the Conway camp is reading this please considering doing this. Also a lot of ads with Paul making his whack job comments.
2. Jerry Brown- Sadly it looks like money can buy votes. However I have not given up hope on Brown yet and I honestly think he can turn it around. He needs to start advertising pronto. This is an important race and if we win here then the night will not feel so bad.
3. Bill White- OMFG if we win Texas this year it would be miracle. Seriously we could lose 60 seats in the House and Bill White would make me go to bed a happy man.
4. Raj Goyle- Honestly with the third party dropping out I do not feel as good but stranger things have happened. Not getting my hopes up but I am sure that it will be closer then it should be. If only if it was 2008.
5. Scott McAdams- Unlikely but possible. Two dems from Alaska, I think I may faint.
6. Roy Barnes- Now here is someone who I honestly think stands a great chance of getting elected. I am sure he will make a good Governor and could he be a potential Senate candidate in 2016????
My list is all seats held by Republicans. Yours does not have to be like that at all. Please come up with anything you want. Vulnerable incumbents whatever. You do not have to structure it like mine either. I know my second list is a little meh but I thought it would appropriate to separate the two. Could all dem users consider making a list? Come on Tek. I think it is a real positive exercise and I know I enjoyed it anyway. 2008 was a bad year for Republicans but even they had bright spots and even some pickups. 2010 here we come.
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If you look at this in the long term, you got some party builders and potential higher office candidates in the bunch. Specifically, Conway strikes me as someone that could be on a national ticket in the future.
will be 68 in 2016. Probably not Senate age.
Dem Congressional districts where the Republican incumbent has been given the benefit of the doubt as moderate, until now.
In 2009-2010 not a single Republican member of Congress has been moderate. This will hopefully end the careers of Republican Congressmen who need to be moderate in order to get reelected.
PA-6: Gerlach has been reelected with 52% or less for 3 elections in a row. Meanwhile Manan Trivedi is the best candidate Gerlach has faced yet. I think Trivedi will win.
WA-8: see PA-6
Depending on how strong this wave is, the same effect can also happen in these Obama districts: PA-15, NJ-7, CA-44, CA-48
Maybe we must quit of the list FL-Gov, because C Crist is not a Republican now, but don’t forget for the first group:
Frak Caprio (RI-Gov)
Gavin Newsom (CA-LG)
Yvonne Prettner Solon (MN-LG)
Nancy Wyman (CT-LG)
Hawaii dem (HI-LG)
Rod Smith (FL-LG)
(and I would include too J Brown)
And maybe too, but is more difficult know:
Ray Bennett Powell (NM-CPL) ?
Dave Jones (CA-IC) ?
Steve Howard (VT-LG) ?
Doug Hoffer (VT-SA) ?
Lory Edwards (FL-12) ? At this point I look too so closely to the FL-12 race, because Lory Edwards has uncontested positive polls.
It’s never a good political year to be crazy. And for some reason, crazies who are presumed safe stay ahead in the polls until they get defeated on Election Day. In 2008, was Tom Perriello ever polling ahead of Virgil Goode? Did Betsy Markey ever poll ahead of Marylin Musgrave?
Just because Michele Bachman and Joe Wilson are ahead in the polls now, and may be ahead in the polls up until Election Day, doesn’t mean they will win.
What about 2014 for him against Sux-by Shameless, who has always been more vulnerable (and has a geographic base that’s becoming less and less important)? Granted, he’d have to forgo re-election and would be running in a midterm.
A wildcard would be what the political climate of Georgia is in 2016. Barring some sort of reversal, Metro Atlanta will pull Georgia into the Democratic column eventually. Will that be in 2016?
CO-Gov. Early in the cycle, this one looked gone. Now the GOP has gifted it to us, and Hickenlooper will make an awesome Governor. Oregon and Colorado have switched behavior patterns, to the benefit of Colorado.
CT-Sen. Dodd would’ve gone down in a landslide had he run again. Blumenthal has a glass jaw so I’m not totally writing this one off for the GOP yet, but McMahon is a horrible candidate despite her CoH.
AZ-Gov. Brewer has royally pissed off Latinos with SB 1070, and she’s made herself look like an idiot on national TV with everyone else. She CAN lose, and I think she will – and if she does, we get a seat at the redistricting table.
Cuomo as NY-Gov, and likely Dem control of both chambers of the NY legislature for the first time in decades. In other words, potential to draw a perfect map in a big blue state that’s losing at least one seat.
Patrick NOT losing in Massachusetts, even though by all rights he should. This makes redistricting easier. Cellucci was ok, but just imagine what would’ve happened with the map if Romney had been governor in 2000 – he’d have been difficult just to be difficult so that he could score points with SC primary voters. Also, pretty sure MA didn’t lose a seat last redistricting cycle.
It doesn’t matter who runs Louisiana, they’ve so maxed out their Republicans that they have to lose a Republican seat. (Logically LA-03, so losing that seat this year doesn’t matter unless it’s the one that costs us the House).
So many of the Republicans that can actually win this cycle are moderates: Hoeven in ND-Sen, Snyder in MI-Gov, even Boozman in AR-Sen on certain issues. Hoeven in particular is a former Democrat, beloved in his tiny state, who is going to take the Olympia Snowe role in the next Congress but has the potential to actually do it better. I’m cautiously optimistic in a way I wouldn’t be for any other Senate Republican at this point. ND could’ve elected a teabagger and it chose not to. Meanwhile, in MI-Gov, Snyder may be a Republican, but he at least seems like the kind of Republican who’ll go for parity with the Democratically-controlled House, rather than a full-on GOP power grab in redistricting.
We’re going to lose our tenuous control over redistricting in OH and PA pretty much guaranteed at this point. Picking up FL-Gov to offset is a great start (even though the GOP has ridiculous majorities in both chambers of the Leg). However, if we can grab CA-Gov and/or TX-Gov, we pretty much immediately gain the overall advantage in redistricting.
And keep an eye on ID-Gov. Otter will probably win, but we can’t rule out an upset here, though from a redistricting POV this state won’t be really important for another decade or so.
Overall, the redistricting picture doesn’t look terrible yet. I just hope Brown can go the distance in CA; that’ll make the most difference.
and Sink will probably be the bright spots.
I’m cautiously optimistic about FL-Gov. I’m pretty sure federal races appear above state, so Rubio might have coattails.
Speaking of which, I’m also cautiously optimistic about FL-Sen; if Crist wins, I don’t think he’ll have much choice but to caucus with the Democrats, you have to dance with the party that brung you.
Also on the topic of Florida, FL-12 and FL-25 are looking better than we could have thought, Edwards is consistently up in polls, and we have the perfect storm of a great democrat and unstable republican in the 25th.
What I’m irate about is that Mario Diaz-Balart got his Get Back to Congress Free card, FL-21 is completely unopposed.
And recoup some losses.
DE-Sen, baby!!