Tag: Chris Coons

• KY-Sen: The Beltway chattering class seems to have either moved on from “Aqua Buddha,” or taken it as a given that it just backfired on Jack Conway. Josh Green at the Atlantic does some actual, y’know, reporting on what’s happening on the ground, though, and finds that the ad (and its rebuttal), and their aftermath, are still completely driving the conversation in Kentucky. Local GOP pols still seem to think that Rand Paul will squeak by in the end, but it’s thrown him deeply off message and the refusal to debate again doesn’t look good on him. (UPDATE: Actually, Greg Sargent just reported that the Conway camp is taking down the Aqua Buddha ad. To clarify “taking down,” though, this was a planned move, as it reached the end of its original run, to be replaced by this sales tax ad.)

• PA-Sen: Barack Obama will be making a four-state swing through the east coast and midwest over the weekend prior to the election; one of the stopping spots will be Philadelphia, where he’ll be doing a canvassing event. He’ll also be doing rallies in Chicago, Cleveland, and Bridgeport, Connecticut (indicating they’re still leaving nothing to chance with Richard Blumenthal).

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman breaking self-funding records has become something of a dog-bites-man story around here, but one more for old times sake: she spent $23 million in the first half of October, bringing her all-cycle total to $163 million. Jerry Brown, by contrast, spent $14.6 million in that period, bringing his all-cycle spending to $25 million.

• CO-Gov: I doubt this is much of a game-changer, but it may help flip a few more Colorado Springs area votes in Tom Tancredo’s direction (if there were any Dan Maes supporters left there). Rep. Doug Lamborn became perhaps the most prominent elected Republican in Colorado to publicly come out in support of Tancredo, rather than Maes.

• MN-Gov: The RGA must be seeing something the polls aren’t telling them, because they’re still fighting till the end in Minnesota. (Of course, if one committee has money to throw at unlikely races and see what sticks, it’s the RGA.) They just gave $1 million to third party group Minnesota Future to run more anti-Mark Dayton (and probably anti-Tom Horner) ads. (You may remember Minnesota Future from the whole Target contribution controversy. Interestingly, Hubbard Broadcasting, owner of local TV station KSTP, also was just identified as having given $25K to Minnesota Future. Y’know, because they’re part of that liberal lamestream media.)

• FL-24: And here I’d thought we’d dodged something of a bullet when Karen Diebel got sent packing to spent more time guarding her swimming pool. Sandy Adams, who seems likely to be the next Representative for the Space Coast, has come out in favor of the “biblical teachings” rather than the theory of evolution. I look forward to hearing her proposals for a faith-based space program next.

• ID-01: The Tea Party Express finally endorsed Raul Labrador in the 1st. However, that comes only after they tried to endorse Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick as their token Dem fig-leaf and he rejected the endorsement (over racist statements by one of their, at the time, key members).

• Early voting: Ohio Democrats are pointing to an edge in early voting, where they’re leading 44 percent to 34 percent for Republicans in votes cast so far. The Republicans are claiming the edge after three days of early voting in Florida, with a 148,000 vote edge, although Dems pointed out that was about where the numbers were in the 2006 election.

• Redistricting: Here’s a good counterpoint to several articles that have shrugged off the possible large Republican advantage on the redistricting front coming out of this election, one that actually looks at the actual number of House seats that are likely to be influenced. Extrapolating likely control of state governorships and legislatures, the GOP will have “untrammeled” control over 125 House seats while Dems will control only 62, a worse outcome than 1990 or 2000. (43 are in commission-based states or at-large states, with 205 drawn by divided governments.)

• Chamber of Commerce: This article was been making the rounds, but it’s a must-read if you haven’t already done so and you’re interested in the “dark money” that’s swamping the transparent money, this cycle more than ever. The NYT digs into what corporations are using the national Chamber of Commerce as a pass-through for their contributions, including Prudential, Dow Chemical, and Dutch insurer Aegon.

• SSP TV:

• AZ-Sen: This looks like John McCain’s last ad, as it’s a soft-focus closing argument type of spot

• CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters hits Ken Buck on environmental issues

• DE-Sen: Here’s the first Chris Coons ad to take on Christine O’Donnell directly, saying she lives in the “Twilight Zone”

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid rolls out endorsements from various local business leaders in his newest ad

• WA-Sen: Waiting until the end to go after Dino Rossi for his anti-abortion stance seems to be tradition now, in order to swing any last-minute moderate women who haven’t decided, and the DSCC piles on

• HI-Gov: Barack Obama, fresh off his Colleen Hanabusa spot, also cuts an ad touting Neil Abercrombie

• RI-Gov: The DGA keeps pounding on Lincoln Chafee over the tax hikes he’d like (I’ve also heard the RGA is buying an ad here on behalf of John Robitaille, though I haven’t seen a link)

• WV-03: Ewwww… Spike Maynard plays the terrorist card against Arab-American Rep. Nick Rahall

• MoveOn: MoveOn seems to have saved their powder for one huge blast at the end, running ads in eight Senate races and 20 House races (here’s their WI-08 ad), helping only Dems who voted in favor of HCR

• Sierra Club: The Sierra Club is out with ads boosting Democratic incumbents in FL-22, MI-07, and AZ-08

• 60+ Assoc.: The AARP’s evil doppelganger is running two spots, a two-fer in Arizona hitting both Raul Grijalva and Gabby Giffords, and… here’s a new one… Solomon Ortiz in TX-27

• Rasmussen:

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 44%, Tom Emmer (R) 41%, Tom Horner (I) 10%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 51%, Carl Paladino (R) 37%

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 31%

• SD-AL: Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc) 44%, Kristi Noem (R) 49%

• AK-Sen: The elections officials in Alaska are out with some further guidance on just how stringent they’ll be about misspellings of Lisa Murkowski’s name: “Murkowsky,” for instance, will probably be OK, but misspellings of “Lisa” (hard to misspell, but anything’s possible in a state that elected Sarah Palin, I guess) won’t. Also, are MurkStrong bracelets on the horizon? They’ve said it’s acceptable for voters to wear wristbands with Murkowski’s name printed on them into the ballot booth, as long as they don’t show them to other people.

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias offers up an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, taken Oct. 10-12, giving him a 44-41 lead over Mark Kirk (with 4 for LeAlan Jones and 3 for Mike Labno). I don’t know how much confidence to get filled with here (especially in view of Nate Silver’s seeming ratification of the +5 rule on internal polls, in fact saying it’s more like a +6)… but with most public pollsters, even Rasmussen, showing this race to be a game of inches, maybe this is truly worth something.

• NV-Sen: Here’s a clear illustration of burn rate, especially when your fundraising strategy is centered around direct mail appeals to small donors (including me… I just got another Sharron Angle snail-mail pitch yesterday). Despite her $14 million 3Q haul, her CoH is $4.1 million. That’s almost exactly the CoH that Harry Reid just announced ($4 mil, based on raising $2.3 mil in 3Q).

• FL-Gov: Wow, the next Alex Sink attack ad writes itself. It turns out that Rick Scott was actually sued by the state of Florida (the same state, of course, that he’s vying to lead) in the late 90s for insider trading at the same time that the FBI was investigating assorted malfeasance at Columbia/HCA. (The case never went to trial, getting subsumed into the larger federal case.)

• RI-Gov: This is pretty late in the game to fall into this state of disarray: Lincoln Chafee’s campaign manager, J.R. Pagliarini just resigned. It wasn’t over any sort of disagreement (or, Tim Cahill-style, over the candidate’s hopelessness), though, but rather because of the impropriety of having received unemployment benefits at the same time as working on the Chafee campaign (which he attributes to a payroll snafu). With or without Pagliarini, though, there’s already a cloud of disarray hanging overhead, as seen by how little attention the Chafee camp seems to have drummed up surrounding their own internal poll giving them a 34-30 lead over Frank Caprio (with John Robitaille at 15).

• CA-11: It was just yesterday that I was pointing out how clownish OR-04 candidate Art Robinson was a big proponent of eliminating public education altogether. Well, now it’s turned out that David Harmer, certainly a “serious” candidate by standard media definitions, is of essentially the same mind, having made the same argument in a 2000 op-ed article in the widely-read San Francisco Chronicle.

• FL-02: At this point I don’t expect to see Allen Boyd back in Congress next year, but this poll seems weird even if you feel the same. It’s from someone called P.M.I. Inc., only mentioned in a rather sketchily-reported article from the right-leaning Sunshine State News site (complete with a tasteless headline that sounds like something I would write) that doesn’t make it clear whether this is an independent poll or taken on someone’s behalf (and doesn’t include dates or MoE). It shows Steve Southerland leading Allen Boyd 56-30, with two independent conservative candidates pulling in an additional 14 percent of the vote.

• GA-02: With Mike Keown having released a poll showing him trailing Sanford Bishop by only 1, Bishop is rather predictably out with a poll of his own today. The Oct. 7-10 poll from Lester & Assocs. gives Bishop a 50-40 lead. (Keown’s poll was taken several weeks earlier, before the DCCC started running ads here.)

• MN-07: Here’s one more race where there were “rumors” (without an actual piece of paper) about a competitive race, where the incumbent Dem whipped out an internal to quash that. This is one of the more lopsided polls we’ve seen lately: Collin Peterson leads Lee Byberg 54-20 in the Sept. 28 poll from Global Strategy Group.

• NY-17: And here’s one more mystery poll (expect to see lots more of these bubble up in the coming weeks): it shows Eliot Engel at 31 but leading his split opponents: Conservative York Kleinhandler at 25 and Republican Tony Mele at 23. The poll is from somebody called “YGSBS.” Considering that “YG” is the initials of the proprietor of the blog where this poll first emerged (yossigestetner.com), and the “forthcoming” crosstabs still don’t seem to have arrived, color me a little suspicious.

• WV-03: Yet another internal poll in the why-are-we-still-talking-about-it WV-03 race: Dem Nick Rahall leads Spike Maynard by 19, in an Anzalone-Liszt poll from Oct. 10-12.

• Fundraising: Here are some fundraising tidbits: via e-mail press release, Taryl Clark just announced $1.8 million last quarter, giving her $1 million CoH. (In any other House race, that’d be huge, but she’s up against Michele Bachmann.) Two other fundraising machines who are sort of the polarizing ideological bookends of Florida also reported: Alan Grayson reports $967K last quarter while Allen West reports $1.6 mil (although no CoH numbers, important as his campaign relies heavily on direct-mail churn). Finally, CQ has some assorted other numbers, including $626K for Rick Boucher in VA-09, $700K for Dan Debicella in super-expensive CT-04, and $507K for Andy Harris in MD-01.

• RGA: And here’s the biggest number of all: yesterday the RGA reported $31 million in the 3rd quarter, which gives them a lot of leverage in the closing weeks in the tight races. (Bear in mind, of course, that a lot of that would have gone to the RNC instead in a more competent year.)

• Polltopia: Nate Silver adds some thoughts on the cellphone debate, reignited by new Pew findings that we discussed yesterday. His main takeaway, one that I agree with whole-heartedly, is don’t just go start adding 5 points in the Dem direction on every poll you see, simply because the cellphone effect isn’t likely to apply uniformly in every population and in every pollster’s method.

• SSP TV:

• AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski finally, as promised, rolls out Ted Stevens dancing with a vacuum cleaner endorsing her from beyond the grave, in a one-minute ad

• KY-Sen: The NRSC is still pouring money into Kentucky (consider that good news), with another boilerplate Conway = Obama ad

• NV-Sen: The Harry Reid team must have spent all last night in the editing suite, as they’re already using Sharron Angle’s words from last night’s debate, on health insurance coverage exemptions, against her

• PA-Sen: If internal polling and press release content are any indication, they’ve finally something that works against Pat Toomey: China, and outsourcing more in general (which explains why the DSCC is out with another ad on the topic, and also pointing out that in Toomey’s last ad that, during the period where he was being a “small businessman” by owning a restaurant, he was really an absentee owner while being a large businessman in Hong Kong)

• WA-Sen: Ditto the DSCC’s new ad in Washington, up against Dino Rossi (which, I’ll admit, is a strange tack in Washington, one of the most pro-trade states you’ll see, and where Patty Murray is a regular vote in favor of trade agreements)

• MO-04: Vicky Hartzler’s ace in the hole? She has an ad up with footage of Ike Skelton telling fellow Rep. Todd Akin where to stick it, with repeated obscenities bleeped out (hmmm, that would just make me want to vote for Skelton more)

• NRA: The NRA is out with a planned $6.75 million buy in a number of statewide races, including a few of their Dem friends, but mostly on behalf of GOPers; you can see a variety of their TV ad offerings at the link

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 44%

• CO-Gov: John Hickelooper (D) 42%, Dan Maes (R) 12%, Tom Tancredo (C) 38%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 51%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 51%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 40%

• HI-Gov: Neil Abercrombie (D) 49%, Duke Aiona (R) 47%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 40%, Brian Sandoval (R) 55%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 40%, Tom Corbett (R) 54%

I’m your poll pusher. 19 new ones:

AZ-Sen: Behavior Research Center (10/1-10, likely voters):

Rodney Glassman (D): 22

John McCain (R-inc): 56

(MoE: ±4.7%)

DE-Sen: SurveyUSA for the University of Delaware Center for Political Communication (10/11-12, likely voters):

Chris Coons (D): 54

Christine O’Donnell (R): 33

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±2.1%)

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):

Chris Coons (D): 57 (55)

Christine O’Donnell (R): 38 (39)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

FL-Sen: Quinnipiac (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/23-28 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (18)

Marco Rubio (R): 44 (46)

Charlie Crist (I): 30 (33)

(MoE: ±3%)

Susquehanna (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/2-7 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (23)

Marco Rubio (R): 45 (43)

Charlie Crist (I): 29 (29)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

NV-Sen: Suffolk (10/7-11, likely voters):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 45

Sharron Angle (R): 43

Scott Ashjian (T): 2

(MoE: ±4.4%)

PA-Sen: Bennett Petts and Normington for Joe Sestak (10/4-6, likely voters):

Joe Sestak (D): 45

Pat Toomey (R): 46

(MoE: ±3.5%)

WA-Sen: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (53)

Dino Rossi (R): 43 (44)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 44 (45)

Ron Johnson (R): 52 (41)

Tom Barrett (D): 44 (42)

Scott Walker (R): 52 (53)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

WV-Sen: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters):

Joe Manchin (D): 44

John Raese (R): 44

Jesse Johnson (MP): 5

(MoE: ±3.5%)

RI-Gov: Quest Research (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

Frank Caprio (D):  37 (36)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (24)

John Robitaille (R): 22 (13)

Ken Block (M): 2 (2)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

CA-11: Lake Research Partners for Jerry McNerney (9/21-25, likely voters):

Jerry McNerney (D-inc): 45

David Harmer (R): 35

David Christensen (AIP): 5

(MoE: ±4.4)

GA-02: Public Opinion Strategies for Mike Keown (9/27-28, likely voters, August in parens):

Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 47 (50)

Mike Keown (R): 46 (44)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NJ-12: Monmouth University (10/9-12, likely voters):

Rush Holt! (D): 51

Scott Sipprelle (R): 46

(MoE: ±3.9%)

NY-01: Siena (10/6-11, likely voters):

Tim Bishop (D-inc): 51

Randy Altschuler (R): 39

(MoE: ±4%)

NY-19: Siena (10/5-10, likely voters):

John Hall (D-inc): 43

Nan Hayworth (R): 46

(MoE: ±4%)

NY-23: Siena (10/5-7, likely voters):

Bill Owens (D-inc): 42

Matt Doheny (R): 31

Doug Hoffman (C): 15

After Hoffman voters told he suspended campaign/endorsed Doheny:

Bill Owens (D-inc): 44

Matt Doheny (R): 39

Doug Hoffman (C): 1

(MoE: ±4%)

PA-11: Franklin & Marshall College for Times-Shamrock Newspapers (10/5-10, likely voters):

Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 40

Lou Barletta (R): 47

(MoE: ±4.8%)

PA-12: Susquehanna for the Tribune-Review (10/9-10, likely voters):

Mark Critz (D-inc): 43

Tim Burns (R): 36

(MoE: ±4.9%)

• WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Russ Feingold and Tom Barrett are both out with internal polls today, both from the same pollster (Fairbanks Maslin), both showing tied races. The Senate poll (Oct. 7, and 10-11) shows Russ Feingold and Ron Johnson tied at 48-48. The gubernatorial poll was an entirely separate sample, Oct. 5-7, showing Tom Barrett and Scott Walker are at 47-47.

• GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage (10/10, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Roy Barnes (D): 41 (37)

Nathan Deal (R): 49 (45)

John Monds (L): 3 (5)

Undecided: 7 (13)

(MoE: ±4%)

If you’re wondering about downballot races, IA also has GOPer Casey Cagle leading Carol Porter in the LG race, 50-36, and GOPer Sam Olen leading Ken Hodges in the AG race, 50-40. Also, if you’re wondering how Nathan Deal seemed to regain his footing after a few rocky weeks where the race was seemingly tied, a lot of that seems to have to do with the RGA pouring money into this race ($3.2 million worth), as they’ve tacitly made this race one of their top priorities.

• AZ-05: Although this is an internal poll that has the GOPer leading the incumbent Dem, it’s a little on the lackluster side. David Schweikert responds to the DCCC internal giving Harry Mitchell an 7-point lead with his own poll showing him up by only 2, 45-43. (The poll was taken 10/5-6 by National Research.) An incumbent at 43% is no good, of course, but averaging the two polls out (for whatever that’s worth) gives Mitchell a small edge.

• NY-20, TN-08: What do these two races (one with a Blue Dog incumbent who seems in control of his race, the other an open seat with an aspiring Blue Dog not likely to win) have in common? In both races, the Dem said he wouldn’t support Nancy Pelosi for Speaker. Scott Murphy’s decision (granted, he’s more of a waffle than a flat-out “no”) is much more surprising than Roy Herron‘s; we’ll have to see if this becomes more of a trend in the closing weeks.

• OH-13: Tom Ganley has pulled his broadcast television advertising for the remaining weeks of the campaign, although he will be focusing on less-expensive cable and radio buys instead of going dark completely. He says that’s how he’s going to “cut through the clutter,” but somehow methinks the self-funder (savvy businessman that he is) realized that he shouldn’t throw his own money down the hole in a race that just got considerably more difficult once sex assault accusations started to fly. (H/t LookingOver.)

• PA-13: Here’s an unremarkable internal from a race where we shouldn’t even have to be looking at one: Allyson Schwartz, in the D+7 NE Philly district, leads Dee Adcock 57-32 in a 10/5-6 poll from Cooper & Secrest. Apparently this was released to combat rumors of a Republican internal showing it a single-digit race.

• SD-AL: This was the day’s big fundraising story until Sharron Angle showed up: the reason Kristi “Leadfoot” Noem was driving so fast was because she had to get to so many different donors’ houses. She raised $1.1 million for the quarter, compared to $550K for Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. That actually gives Noem the CoH edge, $770K to $500K.

• TN-03: Here’s one more place I wouldn’t think I’d be seeing an internal, considering that this GOP-held open seat in a dark-red district should be a slam-dunk this year, but I guess Chuck Fleischmann feels like he needs to look busy. The GOP nominee is leading Dem nominee John Wolfe by a 50-20 margin, in a poll (no dates) by Wilson Research.

• DCCC: More news on the triage front, on what’s apparently the last day to cancel ad reservations without taking a big financial hit. Having thrown Steve Driehaus overboard yesterday, the DCCC followed up today with Kathy Dahlkemper in PA-03 and Suzanne Kosmas in FL-24, who won’t get any more ad cover according to the NYT. Aaron Blake also tweets that open seats KS-03, IN-08, and TN-08 got the axe.

• AGs: You probably know Louis Jacobson of Governing magazine for his handicapping of state legislative chambers, but he also works the state AG beat (that’s often short for “Aspiring Governor,” so it’s a key bench-building step), and is out with handicapping for all the Attorney General races up this year. As you might expect, Dems should brace for some losses, especially in open seats.

• Gerrymandering: If there’s any place where people would be psyched to sit down and watch a movie about gerrymandering, it’s here at SSP. The movie’s creator is up with a diary here that lists all the theaters where it’s opening over the next month (including where he’ll be hosting Q&As). Some of them are one-night engagements, starting as early as tonight, so check out the listings ASAP!

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC hits Ken Buck for his craptastic tenure working for the local US Attorney’s office

• KY-Sen: The DSCC goes back to the $2,000 Medicare deductible issue yet again to hit Rand Paul

• WA-Sen: I’m not sure why Washington Dems always wait until the last minute to remind voters that Dino Rossi is pro-life (that’s what happened in both gube races) — maybe they figure it’s their trump card — but they’re doing it again; meanwhile, the American Action Network hits Patty Murray by whipping up a second version of that weird Fred Davis ad with the tennis shoes walking on people

• WI-Sen: One of Russ Feingold’s myriad problems is that Ron Johnson actually comes up with some effective ads: this one’s a bio spot

• GA-Gov: Nathan Deal’s new ad hits Roy Barnes for having once said that “Mexican workers were good for Georgia”

• SC-Gov: The suddenly resurgent Vince Sheheen’s out with another spot, this one equating Nikki Haley to protégé Mark Sanford

• TX-Gov: Lone Star First (a DGA-backed group) hits Rick Perry on the HPV vaccine and links to Big Pharma

• OH-13: EMILY’s List steers clear of the sex assault allegations of Tom Ganley, going with a humorous spot on outsourcing and his 400 civil lawsuits at his car dealerships

• Rasmussen:

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 44%, Mark Kirk (R) 43%, LeAlan Jones (G) 4%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 34%, Rob Portman (R) 57%

• TN-Gov: Mike McWherter (D) 31%, Bill Haslam (R) 59%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%, Ron Johnson (R) 52%

• Rasmussen (as Fox/Pulse):

• CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 45%, Tom Foley (R) 41%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 49%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 38%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%, Sharron Angle (R) 49%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 42%, John Kasich (R) 47%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 35%, Rob Portman (R) 52%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• Angus-Reid: Another reason to be suspicious of Angus-Reid in addition to their Dem-friendly internet samples: they seem to have neglected to poll the actually interesting Senate race in New York…

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 63%, Carl Paladino (R) 32%

• NY-Sen: Charles Schumer (D) 67%, Jay Townsend (R) 27%

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (9/27-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chris Coons (D): 53

Christine O’Donnell (R): 36

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.5%)

In case there’s any doubt what a bullet we dodged here, FDU runs the hypothetical on a Chris Coons/Mike Castle election, and finds Castle would’ve won 50-36. They also find that Christine O’Donnell is better known than Coons (97% know her), but she has horrifying 30/48 favorables. (Uh, maybe that “I am not a crook witch” ad didn’t have its intended effect? I can’t imagine that the decision to put her in a black dress in front of a purple velvet curtain and arching a mysterious eyebrow toward the camera had anything to do with that. I mean, c’mon, she might as well have had some gargoyle candle holders behind her.)

Univ. of Delaware (9/16-30, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chris Coons (D): 49

Christine O’Donnell (R): 30

Undecided: 13

John Carney (D): 48

Glen Urquhart (R): 31

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±3.5%)

The University of Delaware is also out with poll numbers here; they have an unusually long time frame, almost going back to the conclusion of the primary. Still, they come up with a pretty similar spread (19 pts), if with slightly more undecideds. Perhaps not a surprise, Coons fares better among Republicans (77-20 for O’Donnell) than O’Donnell fares among Dems (92-7 for Coons). They also look at the open seat House race, which is looking like almost as much of a layup (I’d say slam dunk, but nothing’s a slam dunk this year): Dem John Carney leads by 17, again thanks to the GOP rabble’s decapitation of the alleged moderate in the primary. (We reported on FDU’s DE-AL numbers yesterday, with Carney leading 51-36.)

• IA-Sen: Selzer & Co. for Des Moines Register (9/19-22, likely voters, 11/8-11/09 in parentheses):

Roxanne Conlin (D): 30 (30)

Charles Grassley (R-inc): 61 (57)

Undecided: 6 (10)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Not much to see here other than the remarkable consistency over the almost one year’s period since the previous Selzer poll of this race. (I just learned a new word today, while searching for how to describe this race, linked to the Chet Culver vortex: “syntropy.” It’s synergy + entropy.)

• NH-Sen, NH-Gov: American Research Group (9/22-26, likely voters, Dec. 2009 in parentheses):

Paul Hodes (D): 32 (36)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 46 (43)

Undecided: 20 (21)

John Lynch (D-inc): 42

John Stephen (R): 40

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±3.5%)

ARG, mateys! Here be a mighty treasure trove of undecided scallywags! (And here be the gubernatorial link.)

• OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for various Ohio newspapers (9/16-20, likely voters, 5/11-20 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 40 (47)

Rob Portman (R): 55 (46)

Undecided: 5 (6)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (49)

John Kasich (R): 49 (44)

Undecided: 6 (6)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

University of Cincinnati hasn’t been in the field for a while, so they missed the very steady decline of the Dems in Ohio, making it look like more of a sudden collapse. At any rate, this is actually Ted Strickland’s best non-internal showing since early August.

• WA-Sen: Commonsense Ten is out with a $412K independent expenditure in the Washington Senate race, on Patty Murray’s behalf. (Wondering who they are? This Hotline article from July explains how they’re something of a Dem answer to groups like American Crossroads, as well as giving some legal background on just how it came to be that the super-wealthy can give endless money to 527s to spend endlessly on IEs.) Meanwhile, there are dueling ads in Washington. As one might expect, Patty Murray lets Dino Rossi hang himself with his own anti-Boeing words, while Rossi hits Murray on her support of tarps. (Since most Washingtonians own several tarps — they only thing that allows them to go camping during the ten rainy months of the year — I don’t see what the big deal is.)

• WV-Sen: The Dems are definitely getting active in here: the AFL-CIO is out with a huge direct mail blitz in West Virginia, and the DSCC is placing a major ad buy there starting tomorrow. In the meantime, John Raese, Tweeter and Facepage aficionado, is sticking to the GOP party line on global warming: it’s all volcanoes’ fault! (Wait… I thought it was sunspots. They’d better get their stories straight.)

• AK-Gov: Bill Walker, after weeks of dithering in the wake of losing the GOP gubernatorial primary, has formally decided against a write-in bid (despite having an easier-to-spell name than Murkowski). No word on an endorsement of either Sean Parnell or Ethan Berkowitz, although Berkowitz has been steadily reaching out to Walker.

• GA-Gov: With Nathan Deal not really having done much to deflect the attention being paid to his family’s imminent financial collapse, now he’s having to run damage control on another issue: his campaign is accused of having spent $135K to lease aircraft from a company where Deal himself is a part-owner. State ethics law bars candidates from using campaign funds for personal benefit, although the open legal question here is whether this turns into “personal benefit.”

• NM-Gov: Third Eye Strategies for Diane Denish (9/21-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Diane Denish (D): 46

Susana Martinez (R): 46

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.4%)

This is kind of odd… we just got a Diane Denish internal poll from a totally different pollster (GQR) in the middle of last week. Does she have two different pollsters working for her? At any rate, the news is decidedly better in this one, showing a tie where last week’s poll had her down by 5.

• TX-Gov: Blum & Weprin for Texas newspapers (9/15-22, likely voters, 2/2-10 in parentheses):

Bill White (D): 39 (37)

Rick Perry (R-inc): 46 (43)

Kathie Glass (L): 4 (-)

Deb Shafto (G): 1 (-)

Undecided: 8 (13)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

The Texas race is extremely stable (check out the flatness in Pollster‘s regression lines, with a mid-single-digits spread). While I’d like to think that Bill White can get over 50% on his own, his best hope at this point might be for Libertarian candidate Kathie Glass to start taking a bigger share (presumably out of Rick Perry’s hide, via the same crowd who went for Debra Medina in the primary).

• FL-24: Hamilton Campaigns for Suzanne Kosmas (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/25-29 in parentheses):

Suzanne Kosmas (D-inc): 45 (43)

Sandy Adams (R): 43 (49)

Undecided: 12 (9)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is the first internal we’ve seen from Team Kosmas, and while it’s not the kind of numbers that fill you with great confidence (up 2 in one’s own internal), it is an indicator that we’re still looking at a Tossup here instead of Lean R (which is where some of the other prognosticators have been sticking this one). The movement in Kosmas’s direction suggests that voters have found out more about the crazier side of Adams in the wake of her surprise primary victory.

• MS-04: Tarrance Group for Steven Palazzo (9/21-22, likely voters, December 2009 Tarrance Grop poll for NRCC in parentheses):

Gene Taylor (D-inc): 45 (68)

Steven Palazzo (R): 41 (24)

(MoE: ± ?%)

There were reports last week that the NRCC was starting to smell smoke in this race (despite having an underfunded, low-name-rec candidate in Palazzo), and was going to try out a round of polling. Seems like their hunch may be right, as long-time Rep. Gene Taylor (who hasn’t given Dems much reason to take interest in him lately… well, ever, really) is up only by single-digits in a new poll from the Palazzo camp.

• PA-10: Momentum Analysis for Chris Carney (9/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Chris Carney (D-inc): 46

Tom Marino (R): 38

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Chris Carney, having been slightly on the wrong end of a public poll from the Times-Leader (and on the very wrong end of that sketchy AFF poll last month), rolls out an internal giving him an 8-point lead over Tom Marino. Marino (who’s pretty underfunded, although the NRCC is starting to get involved) is little-known (only 26/24 faves), so this is going to be one of many races where the Dem’s survival is based on localizing in order to fend off Generic R.

• PA-16: I’m not sure what to make of this: the uphill campaign of Lois Herr (going against Joe Pitts in the 16th, which is solidly Republican but moved a lot in the Dems’ direction in 2008) is out with a second internal poll from PPP that has her within single digits of the GOP incumbent. Pitts leads 41-34, which seems kind of bizarre considering that we’re seeing polls in Pennsylvania with incumbent Dems losing by larger margins than that in much friendlier districts.

• SD-AL: Bennett Petts and Normington for Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (9/22-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 51

Kristi Noem (R): 38

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Here’s one race that seems to be becoming a little more comfortable for the Democrats. (Recall that Herseth Sandlin led in the last Rasmussen poll of this race, after months of trailing.) I wonder how much of that has to do with the reveal of Noem’s atrocious driving record, given voters’ memories of leadfooted ex-Rep. Bill Janklow?

• DLCC: If you’re looking to really micro-target your financial contributions to where your dollars get stretched the furthest and the leverage is the greatest (given the knife-edges on which many state legislatures, and the entire 2012 redistricting process, rest) the DLCC has rolled out its “Essential Races” program. This points to some of the tightest races in the tightest chambers; the link details their first wave of 20.

• CA-Init: There are some Field Poll leftovers to look at, concerning three of the biggest initiatives on the ballot this year. The news is good all around, although the margins aren’t decisive: Proposition 19 (marijuana legalization) is passing 49-42 (it was failing 44-48 in the July Field Poll). Proposition 23 (undoing greenhouse gases limiting legislation) is failing 34-45. And maybe most importantly, Proposition 25 (allowing budget passage with a simple majority) is passing 46-30.

• Florida: Mason-Dixon’s latest Florida poll (we gave you Sen and Gov numbers over the weekend) has a lot of miscellany in the fine print that’s worth checking out. They find the GOP leading narrowly in three major downballot races: Pam Bondi leads Dan Gelber in the AG race 38-34, Jeff Atwater leads Loranne Ausley in the CFO race 29-27, and Adam Putnam leads Scott Maddox in the Ag Comm race 36-32. They also find that Amendment 4 has a shot at passing; it’s up 53-26, although bear in mind that you need to clear 60% for a Florida initiative. Amendment 4 would require localities to put changes to comprehensive zoning plans up to a public vote; Josh Goodman has a good discussion of it today along with several other initiatives in other states that may pass despite having both sides of the entire political establishment lined up against them.

• SSP TV:

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio rolls out his first ad en espanol, a biographical spot

• PA-Sen: How many freakin’ ads has Pat Toomey come out with? Anyway, here’s another one

• CT-02: Joe Courtney stresses his independence, especially regarding TARP

• CT-05: Chris Murphy’s new ad focuses on stopping outsourcing

• PA-03, PA-11: The DCCC is out with new ads in the 3rd and 11th, continuing the trends of hitting Mike Kelly as out-of-touch millionaire and hitting Lou Barletta for sucking as Hazleton mayor

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Sen: William Barnes (D) 30%, Richard Shelby (R-inc) 58%

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 50%, Linda McMahon (R) 45%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 49%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 40%, Mike Castle (I) 5%

• GA-Sen: Michael Thurmond (D) 36%, Johnny Isakson (R-inc) 52%

• IA-Gov: Chet Culver (D-inc) 37%, Terry Branstad (R) 55%

• ND-Sen: Tracy Potter (D) 25%, John Hoeven (R) 68%

• SC-Sen: Alvin Greene (D) 21%, Jim DeMint (R-inc) 64%

AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski is seeking clarification on just how expansively the state elections board will view misspellings or variants of her name. Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell, who’s in charge of all this, previously said he leans “toward a liberal view” of how to count Murkowski ballots, but now he’s refusing to get more specific. See you in court?

DE-Sen: Bill Maher keeps serving up the goodies:

O’DONNELL: You know what, evolution is a myth. And even Darwin himself –

MAHER: Evolution is a myth?!? Have you ever looked at a monkey!

O’DONNELL: Well then, why they – why aren’t monkeys still evolving into humans?

FL-Sen: Former Rep. Robert Wexler became one of the most prominent Democrats to break ranks and endorse Charlie Crist. Wexler, who has long had a close relationship with Crist, famously abandoned his party earlier this year by resigning his seat in the middle of the term, before the final votes on healthcare reform.

FL-Gov: Douchebag zillionaire Rick Scott really just out-did himself with only three words. When asked if he had forked over another million bucks to his campaign (he had), Scott responded: “I don’t know.” I guess it’s easy to forget writing seven-figure checks when you’re Rick Scott!

IA-Gov: This race has been depressing for a long while now, and the latest news is no different. A Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register shows GOPer Terry Branstad crushing Gov. Chet Culver 52-33. Just ugh.

ME-Gov: Greenberg Quinlan Rossner (D) for Libby Mitchell (9/22-24, likely voters, July in parens):

Libby Michell (D): 34 (32)

Paul LePage (R): 38 (44)

Eliot Cutler (I): 10 (8)

Shawn Moody (I): 8 (5)

Kevin Scott (I): 2 (2)

Undecided: 7 (10)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Mitchell also says her internal shows LePage’s favorability weakening from 33-19 to 38-36 over the same timespan.

AZ-01: CQ got ahold of a month-old internal poll for Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick by Lake Research Partners, which shows the race to be very tight. Kirkpatrick had a 43-39 lead over Republican Paul Gosar. But of course, we’re talking about late August. Who knows what’s changed since then.

CO-03: Nice catch by Colorado Pols. Check out Republican Scott Tipton trying to backpedal away from his earlier statements that he’d eliminate the Department of Education:

Tipton said his plan for that department is the same as his plan for the entire federal government, to cut it in half. He said he plans to do that without cutting government services….

That is some seriously lulzy shit right there, my friends. Even better is the fact, as CO Pols points out, that Tipton already tried to back away from this plan (“slice the gov’t in half”) a few days ago, but he’s already re-un-flip-pivot-flopping back to it. Man.

CT-05: Smaller, fun-size cat fud: Mark Greenberg, who lost in the GOP primary to Sam Caligiuri, showed up on Caligiuri’s hometown to make an endorsement… of the Republican running in Rosa DeLauro’s district. A Caliguri endorsement sounds unlikely.

FL-22: I’m not a big fan of Politifact for a variety of reasons, but they sink their teeth into a good one here. At a recent candidate forum, Allen West claimed, “If you look at the application for a security clearance, I have a clearance that even the president of the United States cannot obtain because of my background.” This is obviously insane, points out Politifact, because security clearances exist because of a presidential executive order… which is signed by, uh, the president. The other possible way of viewing this (which is what West’s campaign proudly says is their view) is as a birther-esque claim that grew out of right-wing email forwards. This “school of thought” holds that Obama’s shaaady personal background means that he’d never have gotten security clearance by normal means (if he hadn’t been elected). Yeah, okay.

MS-04: Remember when, a few weeks ago, Heath Shuler suggested that he might run for Speaker of the House? Well now Rep. Gene Taylor is the latest ConservaDem to take up residence in fantasy-land, saying that he’d prefer 78-year-old Ike Skelton for Speaker, rather than answer a question about whether he’d vote for Nancy Pelosi again. Taylor also refused to answer how he’d react if Republicans approached him about a party switch.

NV-03: In response to a claim by the Smart Media Group that the DCCC was cancelling a week-long buy on behalf of Rep. Dina Titus, the D-Trip announced that three panzer divisions were reconsolidating on the Eastern front the cancellation was actually a sign of strength. Later that same day, perhaps realizing that sounded like bullshit, the same Dem spokesman said that the party was still committed to a million-dollar ad buy.

PA-10: After an AP report cited an anonymous Dept. of Justice source on this story, the Scranton Times Tribune obtained an on-the-record statement from the DoJ confirming that the department has no record of having given approval for then-US Attorney Tom Marino to serve as a reference on a casino license application for his buddy Louis DeNaples. If you’ve been following this story, you know that DeNaples was a possibly-mobbed-up “businessman” who was under investigation by Marino’s own office – and when Marino got busted for providing the reference, he resigned in disgrace, and then took a sinecure with DeNaples. Marino claimed back in the spring that he had received permission from the DoJ to give a reference for DeNaples, but this has clearly turned out to be bullshit. Dem Chris Carney has gotten a lot of mileage out of this so far.

While we’re on the subject, Maine-based pollster Critical Insights tested this race for the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader. They found Marino ahead of Carney 40-36. But the n on this poll was extremely low – just 196 LVs.

PA-11: The Times Leader also polled the 11th CD. Again, with a very small sample (211 LVs), they found Republican Lou Barletta leading Rep. Paul Kanjorski by a 43-32 margin. The Kanjorski campaign blistered the poll, offering some slightly dumber lines of attack (“Makes you wonder if The Times Leader didn’t cook the numbers”) and some sharper ones (noting that the TL doesn’t seem to be very adept at polling, given that last week they tested the Lt. Gov. race, even though Pennsylvanians don’t elect the LG separately). They also questioned the partisan makeup of the sample, and its small size.

NRCC: The NRCC just made $3.2 million in expenditures on a ton of different races – too many to list here. It looks like it’s mostly for paid media, as well as a bunch of polls in a number of districts. Be interesting to see if any see the light of day.

SSP TV (by James L.):

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons’ latest ad touts reform and fiscal conservatism
• KY-Sen: Jack Conway’s out with a great ad that personalizes Rand Paul’s nagging hostility to federal anti-drug funding
• FL-Gov: Alex Sink attacks chrome-domed creep Rick Scott for attacking her over the Florida state pension fund
• CO-04: Dem Rep. Betsy Markey paints Cory Gardner as a career politician with his hand in the trough
• FL-08: Dem Rep. Alan Grayson takes off the gloves… and straps on a set of brass knuckles. In his latest ad, he paints his Republican opponent as a radical religious fundamentalist, going so far as to call him “Taliban Dan Webster”. In another ad, Grayson hits Webster for his Vietnam deferrals. Also worth mentioning is this ad, which came out two weeks ago but went unmentioned here, where Grayson resurrects his famous “briefcase” theme from last cycle.
• HI-01: GOP Rep. Charles Djou responds to the DCCC’s latest attack ad
• IA-03: Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell unleashes a decent ad hitting Brad Zaun on “personal responsibility” hypocrisy
• IL-14: Dem Rep. Bill Foster goes after GOP state Sen. Randy Hultgren for his company’s  role in fueling the mortgage crisis (and profiting from it)
• NY-13: Frosh Dem Rep. Mike McMahon’s first ad touts his accomplishments and votes, including his vote against healthcare reform
• OH-15: Dem Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy touts her votes, while, in another ad, smacks Steve Stivers over his support of a national sales tax.
• OR-05: A six-pack of seniors form a chorus to sing Dem Rep. Kurt Schrader’s praises, and wave their hickory walking sticks in Republican Scott Bruun’s direction
• PA-11: GOPer Lou Barletta responds to Paul Kanjorski’s attacks

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/17-21, likely voters, no trend lines):

CO-Sen:

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44

Ken Buck (R): 49

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Among registered voters, Bennet has a 47-44 lead.

CO-Gov:

John Hickenlooper (D): 47

Dan Maes (R): 21

Tom Tancredo (ACP): 29

Undecided: 1

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Interestingly, a registered voter sample doesn’t boost Hickenlooper’s score much at all; he scores 48% to Tancredo’s 26% under that sample. If only he’d be able to rub off some of his magic on Bennet…

DE-Sen:

Chris Coons (D): 55

Christine O’Donnell (R): 39

Undecided: 2

Chris Coons (D): 37

Mike Castle (R): 55

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Amusingly, CNN/TIME decided to rub some salt into the wounds of the NRSC, finding that Castle would’ve been dominating right now if only he hadn’t been teabagged to death by the brain-dead GOP base. Where Castle dominated among independents and stole 33% of Democrats, O’Donnell loses indies by 7% and only takes 6% of Democrats (while losing 15% of Republicans to Coons). As for the RV numbers, Coons’ lead expands to 59-34 without the likely voter screen.

WI-Sen:

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45

Ron Johnson (R): 51

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3%)

The enthusiasm gap is, unsurprisingly, rough here: among registered voters, Feingold leads by 48-46.

WI-Gov:

Tom Barrett (D): 42

Scott Walker (R): 53

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3%)

Barrett even trails among registered voters, though by a slimmer 48-45 margin.

DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell has decided to go the J.D. Salinger route: She told Sean Hannity that she’s doing no more interviews, ever. Okay, well, at least as far as the national media are concerned. But it’s nothing to get upset over, sports fans: Thanks to the advent of the Internet, we will hear about all her gaffes and insanities even if she’s only talking to the Kent County Evening Bugle-Reporter-Sentinel. In that same interview with Hannity, she also managed to tell some nice lies about Chris Coons, claiming that he “made some very anti-American statements, apologizing for America and calling himself a bearded Marxist.” Of course, the “bearded Marxist” line was a joke, though undoubtedly O’Donnell is too dense to grasp that.

CO-Gov: You know, as we were getting to know Christine O’Donnell, I had a feeling that she was so low-rent, she’d make even Dan Maes look good. Well, that appears to be all but fucking impossible, even for O’Donnell. Maes raised just $14K in the first two weeks of September and currently has $24K in the bank. Not sure there’s a sack big enough fit that much sad.

MI-Gov: WLNS-TV could have saved themselves some money by just reading the Swing State Project, but they went ahead and commissioned a poll of the gubernatorial race anyway. Anyhow, the Marketing Resource Group shows exactly what you’d expect: Rick Snyder beating Virg Bernero 49-31.

AL-02: The NRA’s infiltration of the Democratic Party continues apace, this time with an endorsement for Bobby Bright.

AZ-07: This smells fishy to me. A Republican operative is saying he’s seen internal polls showing Some Dude Ruth McClung in a dead heat with Rep. Raul Grijalva in this 57% Obama district. But local Dem and GOP pols say they’ve seen nothing of the kind. McClung has only $15K on hand, but this ain’t good: Grijalva, after spending half a mil so far this cycle, has just $77K in the bank.

IA-02: Evidently Mariannette Miller-Meeks did not get the Club For Growth’s memo: She’s now saying she opposes privatizing Social Security, ostensibly because she thinks its finances are rickety. But isn’t the whole reason conservative douchewads want to private Social Security is because that’s how they think they can “save” it? I’m confused!

ID-01: Heh – fucker couldn’t buy a break even if Ron Popiel was selling `em. Even though the NRA gave Raul Labrador a better grade than Walt Minnick, they declined to endorse either candidate. Suckaaaaa.

WATN?: Remember this story? Last cycle, Chris Shays’ former campaign manager, Michael Sohn, stole a quarter million dollars from his boss’s election accounts. Now, Sohn has been sentenced to 37 months in prison. Shays must go to sleep every night wondering if that extra $250K would have meant the difference between winning and losing….

SSP TV (by James L.):

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist’s new ad hits Rubio for all the pork-laden bills that he sent to the Governor’s desk while serving as Speaker of the Florida House
• KY-Sen: Conservative group American Crossroads spending $235K against Jack Conway (D) – no copy of ad yet
• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes’ new ad is a folksy spot on fiscal conservatism, including chiding Kelly Ayotte for supporting tax cuts for the rich
• CO-07: Ryan Frazier wields some kind of laser pen while reciting a bunch of B.S. GOP boilerplate
• FL-22: Allen West says that Ron Klein is no moderate
• FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas would like you to know that she’s never gonna give you up, never gonna let you down
• MO-04: Ike Skelton issues a fierce but vague attack on GOPer Vicky Hartzler’s support for veterans, from the mouths of veterans
• NY-20: Chris Gibson says that we have to let market forces drive healthcare costs down. Yeah, like that worked the first time, moron.
• PA-03: Mike Kelly and the NRCC team up to hit Kathy Dahlkemper on SPENDING OUR CHILDREN’S FUTURE INTO OBLIVION!!!!11!
• PA-04: Keith Rothfus’ new ad takes the ice cream sandwich approach: two layers of delicious cookie crunch surrounding a mid-section of negative ice cream. I realize that makes no sense, but… God, I’m hungry.
• PA-10: Tom Marino’s first ad plays defense against Chris Carney’s hard-hitting ads against his sleazy record

Independent Expenditures (all from the DCCC today):

• AL-02: $82K media buy
• HI-01: $53K media buy
• IA-03: $71K media buy/production
• IL-14: $19K on direct mail
• MI-01: $24K media buy
• MI-07: $67K media buy
• MS-01: $49K media buy/production
• NC-08: $200K media buy/production
• NY-24: $27K media buy/production
• OH-13: $232K media buy/production
• OH-16: $26K media buy/production
• WI-07: $61K media buy
• VA-02: $86K media buy/production

• AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally fessed up to what we told you about last week (concerning farmland he owned in Alaska): he’s a hypocrite on the farm subsidy issue, having gladly accepted them while railing against them. This time, it’s about a different parcel of farmland in Kansas that he owned before moving to Alaska, receiving $7K in GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS FOR LAZY UNPRODUCTIVE PEOPLE WHO’VE MADE BAD LIFESTYLE CHOICES!!!1! between the years 1990 and 1997. And check out the excuse he offers: “This was back in the ’90s, the situation the country was in was far different than now.” (Uh huh… when some guy named Bill Clinton was running a surplus.)

• DE-Sen: Whoops. Prior to getting their establishment asses handed them to them on the end of a mob-wielded pitchfork, the Delaware state GOP filed a FEC complaint against Christine O’Donnell for illegal campaign coordination with and excessive contributions from the Tea Party Express. Now that they’re saddled with her as the nominee, the FEC is telling them no-backsies, and that they can’t withdraw the complaint… the complaint against their own nominee.

• NC-Sen: And now it’s Richard Burr’s turn in the hypocrisy dunk tank. An announcement of 240 new jobs and a $130 million expansion at Cree Inc. in Durham is drawing four major Democrats and Richard Burr to celebrate. Burr, unlike the Democrats, though, did not support the stimulus package that, y’know, was behind that expansion.

• NV-Sen: John Ensign may not even survive till the general election in 2012, if Jon Ralston’s tweet is to be believed. John Chachas, the little-known self-funder who barely made a ripple in the overcrowded 2010 GOP Senate field but who seems likely to do better in a one-on-one, is saying he may run against Ensign in two years.

• GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership:

Roy Barnes (D): 41

Nathan Deal (R): 45

Michael Thurmond (D): 33

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52

(MoE: ±4%)

While this isn’t as nice as the InsiderAdvantage poll showing the race tied in the wake of disclosures about Nathan Deal’s financial disarray, Mason-Dixon does show a close race. This appears to be their first poll of the Barnes/Deal matchup, so there’s no sense of whether things have tightened.

• RI-Gov: Faced with the choice between a labor-friendly indie candidate and a Democrat whom they endorsed for state Treasurer four years ago, the AFL-CIO finally decided to punt, and endorse neither Lincoln Chafee nor Frank Caprio, remaining neutral. Recall that Chafee got SEIU and nurses’ union backing yesterday.

• AZ-05: There’s a new internal out in the rematch in Arizona’s 5th that founds its way across someone’s desk at the Hill. It’s from Democratic pollster Harstad Strategic Research and is apparently on behalf of the Harry Mitchell campaign, giving Mitchell a narrow lead over David Schweikert, 45-44 with 6 to the Libertarian candidate. That’s kind of pushing the limits on when it’s a good idea to release an internal, but with Schweikert having claimed an 8-point lead in his own internal and the DCCC’s ambiguous pull-out announcement about this district triggering some alarms, Mitchell seemed to need to show he’s still right in the thick of things.

UPDATE: The Mitchell campaign writes in to clarify that this isn’t their internal poll (which the Hill had originally reported, then apparently deleted), but rather is on behalf of Project New West. Mitchell’s up 51-29 among independents, which helps him prevail even in a sample that’s slightly GOP-skewed (46% GOP, 30% Dem) You can see the polling memo here.

• LA-02: Anzalone-Liszt for Cedric Richmond (9/12-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Cedric Richmond (D): 45

Joe Cao (R): 35

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Here’s the antidote to that bizarre Joe Cao internal from a few months back, that gave him a 25-point lead over Cedric Richmond. Even this Richmond internal, which has him up by 10, indicates that this isn’t going to be a total cakewalk for the Dems, though; with only 35%, Cao is still way overperforming the GOP baseline in this district that went for Barack Obama with 75% of the vote in 2008.  

• MN-01: Tim Walz picked up an endorsement from an unexpected corner yesterday. He got the backing of former Republican Senator David Durenberger, who support Walz’s stance on “uniting people” but also his support for health care reform. (Durenberger is also supporting IP candidate Tom Horner in the governor’s race.)

• PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (9-11/16, likely voters, 4/19-27 in parentheses):

John Callahan (D): 38 (33)

Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (45)

Jake Towne (I): 3 (?)

Undecided: 10 (22)

(MoE: ±5%)

John Callahan’s one of the best Dem challengers to a GOP incumbent this cycle, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him to make up that last 12 points against Charlie Dent.

• NRSC: Here’s an interesting Roll Call dispatch from the front lines in the war between the NRSC and the Army of One known as Jim DeMint. DeMint is apparently dissatisfied with current NRSC allocations, and is moving money from his own personal stash to bolster Sharron Angle in Nevada ($156K) and Ken Buck in Colorado ($250K). The NRSC has reserved $3.2 million for Buck in TV time, more than any other candidate, so his concerns about Colorado may be misplaced.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: The DSCC hits Mark Kirk for voting against unemployment extensions and minimum wage raises

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt disappears down the meta rabbithole, with an attack ad about Robin Carnahan’s attack ads

• NV-Sen: Can we just have Harry Reid handle the advertising for all our candidates? He turns up the heat even higher on Sharron Angle, saying she wants to privatize the VA and “end our promise to our veterans”

• IA-Gov: Two separate ads for Chet Culver, one featuring endorsements from his immediate family members, the other making the case that “hey, Iowa’s not that bad off compared to all those other states”

• NM-Gov: Susana Martinez’s ad is a positive bio spot recounting her early prosecuting days

• SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen’s TV ad features a litany of reasons to be suspicious of Nikki Haley, recited by various average folks

• OH-16: The DCCC’s newest spot is a tax-time two-fer, hitting Jim Renacci on supporting the 23% “fair tax” and on his own pile of back taxes owed

• OR-05: Kurt Schrader’s newest is a testimonial from a thankful veteran

• TN-08: Roy Herron’s newest ad hits Stephen Fincher mostly on his various campaign finance discrepancies of misfilings and mysterious loans

• WI-07: Julie Lassa’s newest ad features criticism from a Sean Duffy underling from the DA’s office in Ashland County, focusing on his neglect of that stepping-stone job

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 25%, Joe Miller (R) 42%, Lisa Murkowski (W-I-inc) 27%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 49%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%

• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

• Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 39%

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 41%, John Kasich (R) 47%

• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 36%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 40%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%