Suffolk (4/3-5, likely voters, no trendlines)
Deval Patrick (D): 37
Scott Brown (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 11Mike Capuano (D): 26
Scott Brown (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 19Tim Murray (D): 23
Scott Brown (R-inc): 51
Undecided: 22Joe Kennedy (D): 40
Scott Brown (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 13Setti Warren (D): 9
Scott Brown (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 32Ed Markey (D): 26
Scott Brown (R-inc): 53
Undecided: 19Vicki Kennedy (D): 30
Scott Brown (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Here’s one more splash of cold water for anyone who thinks that Massachusetts, what with its dark blue hue, will be an easy Senate pickup in 2012. Local pollster Suffolk (who correctly predicted that Brown would win by 4 in the Jan. 2011 special election) find him leading by mostly large margins, ranging anywhere from 5 (against former Rep. Joe Kennedy, who hasn’t expressed any interest in the race) to 43 (against currently unknown Newton mayor Setti Warren, who seems like the likeliest of these seven to actually run).
They aren’t the first pollster to find these kinds of numbers lately, although these are the worst of the batch; for comparison’s sake, PPP found Brown leading MA-08 Rep. Mike Capuano by 16 in December, while WNEC in March gave him a 13-point lead. (Today’s poll has Capuano, the only Dem sampled in all three polls, down by 26.) That WNEC poll raised some eyebrows for its sample composition (34 D, 12 R, and 47 I, compared with 2008 exit poll numbers of 43 D, 17 R, 40 I), and today’s Suffolk poll is in that same territory, with a breakdown of 37 D, 12 R, 48 I.
If there’s good news to be found here, it’s that the Democrats tested (with the exceptions of Gov. Deval Patrick, and the Kennedys, all of whom have said they won’t run) are pretty poorly known, and their share of the vote is only likely to go up once somebody’s actually in the race and making the case in the local media against Brown’s mostly party-line voting record. In the meantime, though, through personal charisma (he has 58/22 favorables) and skill at building his brand as a moderate through frequent ritual invocations of his independence (based on the 56/24 ‘yes’ response to the question of whether he has kept his promise to be an independent voice), Brown’s starting in unexpectedly strong position. Add in the more-appealing possibility of another open seat in 2013 (if, as some expect, John Kerry resigns to become the next Secretary of State), and it’s no wonder the DSCC is having recruitment problems with this seat.