SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Morning Edition)

What better way to celebrate SSP’s seventh birthday than to give you another firehose blast of polls?

AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for the DCCC (10/9-12, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):

Bobby Bright (D-inc): 51 (52)

Martha Roby (R): 39 (43)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/13-16 in parens):

Chad Causey (D): 44 (46)

Rick Crawford (R): 42 (44)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

AR-01: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

Chad Causey (D): 34 (32)

Rick Crawford (R): 42 (48)

Ken Adler (G): 4 (4)

Undecided: 20 (20)

(MoE: ±4.7%)

AR-02: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):

Joyce Elliott (D): 38 (35)

Tim Griffin (R): 50 (52)

Lance Levi (I): 3 (3)

Lewis Kennedy (G): 3 (1)

Undecided: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

AR-03: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):

David Whitaker (D): 21 (31)

Steve Womack (R): 59 (55)

Undecided: 20 (14)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

AR-04: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):

Mike Ross (D-inc): 52 (49)

Beth Anne Rankin (R): 34 (31)

Joshua Drake (G): 3 (4)

Undecided: 11 (16)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

CA-47: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Van Tran (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Loretta Sanchez (D-inc): 39

Van Tran (R): 39

Ceci Iglesias (I): 5

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±5.7%)

FL-Sen: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kendrick Meek (D): 22

Marco Rubio (R): 39

Charlie Crist (I): 31

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4.4%)

FL-Gov: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alex Sink (D): 45

Rick Scott (R): 38

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Misc.: In the AG race, Pam Bondi (R) leads Dan Gelber (D), 38-30. Also, a poll by Voter Survey Service (aka Susquehanna) for the right-wing Sunshine State News site has Adam Putnam (R) leading Scott Maddox (D) in the Ag Comm’r race, 40-35. Tea Party candidate Ira Chester takes 14%.

MA-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Charlie Baker (10/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35

Charlie Baker (R): 42

Tim Cahill (I): 10

(MoE: ±3.5%)

MA-10: MassINC Polling Group for WGBH (10/13-15, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):

William Keating (D): 46

Jeffrey Perry (R): 43

Other: 5

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4.9%)

MI-Gov: Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting (D) (PDF) (10/7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Virg Bernero (D): 37

Rick Snyder: 50

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±2.1%)

MO-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) for Robin Carnahan (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (38)

Roy Blunt (R): 46 (45)

Jerry Beck (C): 3 (5)

Jonathan Dine (L): 3 (3)

Undecided: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

NM-Gov: SurveyUSA for KOB-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 5/23-25 in parens)

Diane Denish (D): 42 (43)

Susana Martinez (R): 54 (49)

Undecided: 4 (8)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Note: Among the 13% of respondents who say they have already voted, Martinez has a 60-36 lead.

NY-25: Siena (10/10-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Maffei (D-inc): 51

Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 39

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Note: Maggie Haberman tweets that Karl Rove’s American Crossroads plans to get involved here.

NY-Gov: New York Times (PDF) (10/10-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 59

Carl Paladino (R): 24

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±3%)

OR-04: Grove Insight (D) for Peter DeFazio (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):

Peter DeFazio (D-inc): 53

Art Robinson (R): 39

(MoE: ±4.9%)

OR-05: Moore Information (R) for Scott Bruun (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 40

Scott Bruun: 44

(MoE: ±5.7%)

PA-15: Muhlenberg (PDF) (10/5-13, likely voters, 9/11-16 in parens):

John Callahan (D): 32 (38)

Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (49)

Jake Towne (I): 5 (3)

Undecided: 13 (10)

(MoE: ±5%)

UT-Gov: Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News/KSL-TV (10/11-14, “active voters,” 10/7-13 in parens):

Peter Corroon (D): 33 (31)

Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58 (52)

Undecided: 6 (13)

(MoE: ±4%)

Note: The Deseret News says that Dan Jones has also done polling for Herbert. Should we be regarding them as an (R) pollster?

UT-Gov: UtahPolicy.com/Western Wats (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

Peter Corroon (D): 27

Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4%)

Note: Dan Jones also has UT-Sen numbers. UtahPolicy.com also has UT-Sen, UT-01, and UT-03 numbers.

VA-05: Roanoke College (10/5-14, likely voters, no trendlines):

Tom Perriello (D-inc): 40

Rob Hurt (R): 46

Jeffrey Clark (I): 1

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4.1%)

WI-Gov: St. Norbert College (PDF) for Wisconsin Public Radio (10/12-15, likely voters, 3/23-31 in parens):

Tom Barrett (D): 41 (28)

Scott Walker (R): 50 (44)

Undecided: 6 (17)

(MoE: ±5%)

Margins & Errors: The Fix publishes an alleged WA-Sen poll without either field dates or sample size… Bill Kristol (yeah, that Bill Kristol) claims he has his hands on an OH-10 poll – he has the n, but won’t say the pollster’s name, who paid for the poll, or when it was taken… Pollster.com has a PDF from ccAdvertising with numbers for WV-Sen, WV-01, and WV-03 – but not only does ccA report to hundredths of a percent, they get taken to the woodshed by Mark Blumenthal for refusing to divulge the poll’s sponsor

242 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 10/19 (Morning Edition)”

  1. Republican pollster says Rossi up one point with better favorables – everybody else, even Rasmussen, says Murray up at least three. Who to believe? Not.

  4. That’s almost close enough to get a few more voters to move off of Meek and onto Crist, and, honestly, that both Crist’s and Rubio’s numbers start with a “3” helps that along.  A race which was 40-32 or 41-33 would not “feel” as close.

  6. Here’s the blurb from this morning, boldfacing added by me:

    *** Do Republicans begin targeting McAdams? Speaking of Miller in Alaska, at what point do Republicans begin directing their fire at Scott McAdams (D), to help either Miller or Lisa Murkowski (R-ite-in) win? Miller’s getting close to being in free-fall if some private polling is to be believed. And while the national Republicans have to be careful not to anger Palin publicly and also come out and endorse Murkowski, about the best way they could assist may be in going after McAdams. Of course, Alaska is a cheap state and, Democrats might decide to play as well. It’s going to be a wild ending in Alaska. And here’s the best part: We may not know the winner for three weeks, because state law doesn’t count the write-ins until it’s been determined there are enough write-ins to alter the outcome. #headache

    My view on a 3-way is that the trailers should first attack the leader.  Only when the leader is completely torn down should they go after each other.

    I think that was Meek’s and Crist’s mistake in FL-Sen.  Both should have teamed up and gone exclusively after Rubio until they dragged him down, then fight each over the votes in play.  But they tried to do both at once, which only muddled the message and left them unable to break through.

    It appears in AK-Sen that Miller is getting torn down, albeit in this case with McAdams letting the combination of Murkowski’s attacks and Miller’s own mouth and bad behavior do all the dirty work.

    McAdams is very much in this as long as Miller can be dragged down enough.

  8. PPP is showing a tie in PA-Sen

    Sestak 46(36)

    Toomy 45(45)

    Shows Sestak closing the enthusiasm gap to get to this marginal lead.  I’m sure this will make my Dem friends very happy, but I’ll need to see another poll confirming it before I consider this anything but an outlier, but PPP for sure has been doing some great work this season.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo…

  9. With this…

    I guess whoever designed this ad must have been listening to President Clinton when he says we need to address voters’ anger, then channel it in the proper direction. IMHO it’s not the strongest ad I’ve seen here, but it’s also far from the worst. I guess I’d have to give it a B+ for its attempt to address that voter anger and redirect it toward Angle, but it would have been nice to see this pack more punch.

  10. Here’s the link:

    http://www.lasvegassun.com/blo…

    The bottom line appears to be that while early turnout is “normal” for a midterm, Democrats need to either do better in early voting OR stay dead-even in election-day voting in order to keep from losing ground compared to 4 years ago.  So we have every reason to stay on the edge of our seats, we don’t have cause to either feel good or be depressed.

  11. When asked how that’s possible, since there are only 435 House seats, a rather cantankerous John Cranston of Rasmussen said, “I’m not an idiot, I know there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives. So what! Republicans are polling so well, they have a great chance of winning districts not even yet created.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…

  13. http://www.washingtonpost.com/…

    The key part is on Page 2…

    “Brown is receiving help from his union allies, who have spent nearly $14 million on his behalf. The Service Employees International Union recently announced a $5 million ad campaign targeting Latinos. But some Democrats are nervous that they are seeing nothing on their side that matches Whitman’s operation.

    Brown has conserved his own cash for a big advertising push at the end of the campaign. “He will be arguably competitive on the air for the last four weeks, but I do not believe there is anything approaching a get-out-the-vote operation on the ground that is going to be up to the task,” said longtime Democratic operative Garry South, who was the top strategist for former governor Gray Davis.

    From outside appearances, South said, Whitman has built “the most extensive absentee-ballot program and get-out-the-vote program that California has ever seen in any race whatsoever.”  

  14. …47-42, compared to an absurd 49-38 in late September.

    Paul’s favorability has dipped from 56-39 to 51-45, while Conway is a competitive 50-48.

    Turnout model is 48D-39R-13I, and 89% white.  Plausible IMO.

    Ras always has given Paul a much bigger edge in this race than all other pollsters, so Scotty now calling this a 5-pointer is significant.

  18. http://www.nationalreview.com/…

    FL-8: Daniel Webster (R) 46, Alan Grayson* (D) 30

    PA 3: Mike Kelly (R) 56, Kathy Dahlkemper* (D) 39

    OH-15: Steve Stivers (R) 51, Mary Jo Kilroy* (D) 39

    WA-3: Jaime Herrera (R) 51, Denny Heck (D) 38

    NY-20: Chris Gibson (R) 48, Scott Murphy* (D) 45

    MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) 44, Bill Keating (D) 42

    IL-17: Bobby Schilling (R) 44, Phil Hare* (D) 41

    PA-10: Tom Marino (R) 44, Chris Carney* (D) 37

    VA-9: Morgan Griffith (R) 44, Rick Boucher* (D) 44

    OR-5: Scott Bruun (R) 44, Kurt Schrader (D) 42

    OH-6: Bill Johnson (R) 40, Charlie Wilson* (D) 40

    (* = denotes incumbent)

    About what I’d expect from Republican internals.  A little disappointing that WA-03 is not closer.

  20. http://www.nationalreview.com/…

    Per Rich Lowry at the National Review…

    – Alaska is “worrisome,” with Miller bleeding support, but hard to poll b/c of Murkowski.

    – Fiorina in “shockingly good” shape, tied in one poll, narrowly behind in another poll which has Boxer at only 42%.

    – Murray up narrowly over Rossi.

    – Pennsylvania closing, but Toomey still leads.

    – West Virginia tied.

  25. Marc Ambinder’s tweet this afternoon:

    In Ohio, Dem internals have Strickland up 2 and Republican internals have Kasich up 2.

    I’m surprised by both.

    And I trust this revelation more than the Q-poll.

    I still think Strickland ultimately loses, but losing only narrowly matters a LOT, as it saves some downballot Dems.

  29. This isn’t spun on DailyKos as anything good, but I think we should take it as good news.  Kitzhaber was down in all polling by single digits for quite a long time, and now we have 3 straight polls that have him up 1-2 points.

    http://www.dailykos.com/pollin…

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