Bonus: UT also tested a wide range of down-ballot races.
Margins & Errors: The DSCC supposedly has some internal with Alexi Giannoulias up 2 in IL-Sen, but this is some NRCC-style crap with no details other than the toplines… Some MI-Gov poll shows that the race still sucks… Frank Guinta is touting an internal in NH-01 that supposedly has him up 53-37, but there isn’t even word of the pollster’s name
Time for our second-to-last round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings.
14 of these changes favor Republicans; 6 races have moved in the Democratic direction. If anything, we’re seeing a continuation of the pattern where the Dems in some high-profile statewide races seem to have bottomed out and there’s a little bounce-back, but where things seem to be keeping on worsening in the House. (Although that probably doesn’t have as much to do with the overall national atmosphere continuing to get worse, as it just does with additional polling coming to light that lets us see more underserved races in sharper relief.)
What better way to celebrate SSP’s seventh birthday than to give you another firehose blast of polls?
AL-02: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D) for the DCCC (10/9-12, likely voters, 9/26-28 in parens):
Bobby Bright (D-inc): 51 (52)
Martha Roby (R): 39 (43)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
AR-01: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/13-16 in parens):
Chad Causey (D): 44 (46)
Rick Crawford (R): 42 (44)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
AR-01: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):
Chad Causey (D): 34 (32)
Rick Crawford (R): 42 (48)
Ken Adler (G): 4 (4)
Undecided: 20 (20)
(MoE: ±4.7%)
AR-02: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/17 in parens):
Joyce Elliott (D): 38 (35)
Tim Griffin (R): 50 (52)
Lance Levi (I): 3 (3)
Lewis Kennedy (G): 3 (1)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.6%)
AR-03: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25 in parens):
David Whitaker (D): 21 (31)
Steve Womack (R): 59 (55)
Undecided: 20 (14)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
AR-04: Talk Business Research and Hendrix College (PDF) (10/14, likely voters, 8/25-26 in parens):
Mike Ross (D-inc): 52 (49)
Beth Anne Rankin (R): 34 (31)
Joshua Drake (G): 3 (4)
Undecided: 11 (16)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
CA-47: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Van Tran (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Loretta Sanchez (D-inc): 39
Van Tran (R): 39
Ceci Iglesias (I): 5
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5.7%)
FL-Sen: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kendrick Meek (D): 22
Marco Rubio (R): 39
Charlie Crist (I): 31
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4.4%)
FL-Gov: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Alex Sink (D): 45
Rick Scott (R): 38
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Misc.: In the AG race, Pam Bondi (R) leads Dan Gelber (D), 38-30. Also, a poll by Voter Survey Service (aka Susquehanna) for the right-wing Sunshine State News site has Adam Putnam (R) leading Scott Maddox (D) in the Ag Comm’r race, 40-35. Tea Party candidate Ira Chester takes 14%.
MA-Gov: Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Charlie Baker (10/11-13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Deval Patrick (D-inc): 35
Charlie Baker (R): 42
Tim Cahill (I): 10
(MoE: ±3.5%)
MA-10: MassINC Polling Group for WGBH (10/13-15, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):
William Keating (D): 46
Jeffrey Perry (R): 43
Other: 5
Undecided: 4
(MoE: ±4.9%)
MI-Gov: Foster McCollum White and Baydoun Consulting (D) (PDF) (10/7, likely voters, no trendlines):
Virg Bernero (D): 37
Rick Snyder: 50
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±2.1%)
MO-Sen: Public Policy Polling (D) (PDF) for Robin Carnahan (10/17-18, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):
Robin Carnahan (D): 41 (38)
Roy Blunt (R): 46 (45)
Jerry Beck (C): 3 (5)
Jonathan Dine (L): 3 (3)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
NM-Gov: SurveyUSA for KOB-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 5/23-25 in parens)
Diane Denish (D): 42 (43)
Susana Martinez (R): 54 (49)
Undecided: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Note: Among the 13% of respondents who say they have already voted, Martinez has a 60-36 lead.
NY-25: Siena (10/10-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Dan Maffei (D-inc): 51
Ann Marie Buerkle (R): 39
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Note: Maggie Haberman tweets that Karl Rove’s American Crossroads plans to get involved here.
NY-Gov: New York Times (PDF) (10/10-15, likely voters, no trendlines):
Andrew Cuomo (D): 59
Carl Paladino (R): 24
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3%)
OR-04: Grove Insight (D) for Peter DeFazio (10/11-12, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter DeFazio (D-inc): 53
Art Robinson (R): 39
(MoE: ±4.9%)
OR-05: Moore Information (R) for Scott Bruun (10/13-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 40
Scott Bruun: 44
(MoE: ±5.7%)
PA-15: Muhlenberg (PDF) (10/5-13, likely voters, 9/11-16 in parens):
John Callahan (D): 32 (38)
Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (49)
Jake Towne (I): 5 (3)
Undecided: 13 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)
UT-Gov: Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret News/KSL-TV (10/11-14, “active voters,” 10/7-13 in parens):
Peter Corroon (D): 33 (31)
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58 (52)
Undecided: 6 (13)
(MoE: ±4%)
Note: The Deseret News says that Dan Jones has also done polling for Herbert. Should we be regarding them as an (R) pollster?
UT-Gov: UtahPolicy.com/Western Wats (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter Corroon (D): 27
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 58
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4%)
Note: Dan Jones also has UT-Sen numbers. UtahPolicy.com also has UT-Sen, UT-01, and UT-03 numbers.
VA-05: Roanoke College (10/5-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 40
Rob Hurt (R): 46
Jeffrey Clark (I): 1
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.1%)
WI-Gov: St. Norbert College (PDF) for Wisconsin Public Radio (10/12-15, likely voters, 3/23-31 in parens):
Tom Barrett (D): 41 (28)
Scott Walker (R): 50 (44)
Undecided: 6 (17)
(MoE: ±5%)
Margins & Errors: The Fix publishes an alleged WA-Sen poll without either field dates or sample size… Bill Kristol (yeah, that Bill Kristol) claims he has his hands on an OH-10 poll – he has the n, but won’t say the pollster’s name, who paid for the poll, or when it was taken… Pollster.com has a PDF from ccAdvertising with numbers for WV-Sen, WV-01, and WV-03 – but not only does ccA report to hundredths of a percent, they get taken to the woodshed by Mark Blumenthal for refusing to divulge the poll’s sponsor
Also of note: Miller is trying to unring that Seventeenther bell a bit – but not really. His stance now is that a constitutional amendment to eliminate the direct election of senators is not “practical,” but sure sounds like he’d love to do it if he could. What a weirdo.
“I think that Representative Cantor did what so many career politicians do. He reacted before he had all the facts. He didn’t know the whole story. He didn’t understand what historical reenacting is all about, or the education side of it. And he just made a decision without all the facts. My opponent here is cut out of the same cloth. Those are the people who passed the health care bill before they knew what was in it. The same folks who passed the stimulus bill….”
Because comparing the minority whip to Democrats is a good idea for a Republican candidate with a future, right? Anyhow, for those of you who perhaps wanted to hold out hope that Iott was just some weird LARPer (but I repeat myself), please review this paragraph taken from the website of his fellow Nazi re-enactors:
Nazi Germany had no problem in recruiting the multitudes of volunteers willing to lay down their lives to ensure a “New and Free Europe”, free of the threat of Communism. National Socialism was seen by many in Holland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and other eastern European and Balkan countries as the protector of personal freedom and their very way of life, despite the true underlying totalitarian (and quite twisted, in most cases) nature of the movement. Regardless, thousands upon thousands of valiant men died defending their respective countries in the name of a better tomorrow. We salute these idealists; no matter how unsavory the Nazi government was, the front-line soldiers of the Waffen-SS (in particular the foreign volunteers) gave their lives for their loved ones and a basic desire to be free.
“From a social perspective, it’s right up there, I would argue – probably the fugitive slave law was worse. But still, the healthcare bill was pretty darn bad.”
The Fugitive Slave Act, which “required any runaway slaves who had escaped their bondage and were living free in the Northern states be returned to their owners” – and was one of the causes of the Civil War. Right on!
SSP TV:
Independent Expenditures:
Fundraising:
Independent Expenditures:
SSP TV:
O’DONNELL: You know what, evolution is a myth. And even Darwin himself –
MAHER: Evolution is a myth?!? Have you ever looked at a monkey!
O’DONNELL: Well then, why they – why aren’t monkeys still evolving into humans?
Libby Michell (D): 34 (32)
Paul LePage (R): 38 (44)
Eliot Cutler (I): 10 (8)
Shawn Moody (I): 8 (5)
Kevin Scott (I): 2 (2)
Undecided: 7 (10)
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Mitchell also says her internal shows LePage’s favorability weakening from 33-19 to 38-36 over the same timespan.
Tipton said his plan for that department is the same as his plan for the entire federal government, to cut it in half. He said he plans to do that without cutting government services….
That is some seriously lulzy shit right there, my friends. Even better is the fact, as CO Pols points out, that Tipton already tried to back away from this plan (“slice the gov’t in half”) a few days ago, but he’s already re-un-flip-pivot-flopping back to it. Man.
While we’re on the subject, Maine-based pollster Critical Insights tested this race for the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader. They found Marino ahead of Carney 40-36. But the n on this poll was extremely low – just 196 LVs.
SSP TV (by James L.):
Surprisingly, Paul has smelled the glove belonging to a very different interest group, the neocons. They mistrust Paul’s views on Israel and probably just on the general concept of randomly invading countries and killing people.
Mark Schauer (D-inc): 38
Tim Walberg (R): 42
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±5.6%)
SSP TV (by James L.):
Swing State Project is rolling out another round of updates to our House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings charts. This may seem like an alarming large number to do all at once, especially since almost all the changes are favorable to Republicans, but that’s not in response to any particular event or series of events. Mostly, we’re just playing catchup after having been a little slow in performing a global update since late July, and obviously the general environment deteriorated over August for Dems (although we might have seen a slight uptick in their fortunes, at least in terms of generic ballot tests and mindless Beltway CW, in the last week).
39 of these changes favor Republicans; 2 races have moved in the Democratic direction.
• AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally fessed up to what we told you about last week (concerning farmland he owned in Alaska): he’s a hypocrite on the farm subsidy issue, having gladly accepted them while railing against them. This time, it’s about a different parcel of farmland in Kansas that he owned before moving to Alaska, receiving $7K in GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS FOR LAZY UNPRODUCTIVE PEOPLE WHO’VE MADE BAD LIFESTYLE CHOICES!!!1! between the years 1990 and 1997. And check out the excuse he offers: “This was back in the ’90s, the situation the country was in was far different than now.” (Uh huh… when some guy named Bill Clinton was running a surplus.)
• DE-Sen: Whoops. Prior to getting their establishment asses handed them to them on the end of a mob-wielded pitchfork, the Delaware state GOP filed a FEC complaint against Christine O’Donnell for illegal campaign coordination with and excessive contributions from the Tea Party Express. Now that they’re saddled with her as the nominee, the FEC is telling them no-backsies, and that they can’t withdraw the complaint… the complaint against their own nominee.
• NC-Sen: And now it’s Richard Burr’s turn in the hypocrisy dunk tank. An announcement of 240 new jobs and a $130 million expansion at Cree Inc. in Durham is drawing four major Democrats and Richard Burr to celebrate. Burr, unlike the Democrats, though, did not support the stimulus package that, y’know, was behind that expansion.
• NV-Sen: John Ensign may not even survive till the general election in 2012, if Jon Ralston’s tweet is to be believed. John Chachas, the little-known self-funder who barely made a ripple in the overcrowded 2010 GOP Senate field but who seems likely to do better in a one-on-one, is saying he may run against Ensign in two years.
• GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership:
Roy Barnes (D): 41
Nathan Deal (R): 45Michael Thurmond (D): 33
Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±4%)
While this isn’t as nice as the InsiderAdvantage poll showing the race tied in the wake of disclosures about Nathan Deal’s financial disarray, Mason-Dixon does show a close race. This appears to be their first poll of the Barnes/Deal matchup, so there’s no sense of whether things have tightened.
• RI-Gov: Faced with the choice between a labor-friendly indie candidate and a Democrat whom they endorsed for state Treasurer four years ago, the AFL-CIO finally decided to punt, and endorse neither Lincoln Chafee nor Frank Caprio, remaining neutral. Recall that Chafee got SEIU and nurses’ union backing yesterday.
• AZ-05: There’s a new internal out in the rematch in Arizona’s 5th that founds its way across someone’s desk at the Hill. It’s from Democratic pollster Harstad Strategic Research and is apparently on behalf of the Harry Mitchell campaign, giving Mitchell a narrow lead over David Schweikert, 45-44 with 6 to the Libertarian candidate. That’s kind of pushing the limits on when it’s a good idea to release an internal, but with Schweikert having claimed an 8-point lead in his own internal and the DCCC’s ambiguous pull-out announcement about this district triggering some alarms, Mitchell seemed to need to show he’s still right in the thick of things.
UPDATE: The Mitchell campaign writes in to clarify that this isn’t their internal poll (which the Hill had originally reported, then apparently deleted), but rather is on behalf of Project New West. Mitchell’s up 51-29 among independents, which helps him prevail even in a sample that’s slightly GOP-skewed (46% GOP, 30% Dem) You can see the polling memo here.
• LA-02: Anzalone-Liszt for Cedric Richmond (9/12-15, likely voters, no trendlines):
Cedric Richmond (D): 45
Joe Cao (R): 35
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Here’s the antidote to that bizarre Joe Cao internal from a few months back, that gave him a 25-point lead over Cedric Richmond. Even this Richmond internal, which has him up by 10, indicates that this isn’t going to be a total cakewalk for the Dems, though; with only 35%, Cao is still way overperforming the GOP baseline in this district that went for Barack Obama with 75% of the vote in 2008.
• MN-01: Tim Walz picked up an endorsement from an unexpected corner yesterday. He got the backing of former Republican Senator David Durenberger, who support Walz’s stance on “uniting people” but also his support for health care reform. (Durenberger is also supporting IP candidate Tom Horner in the governor’s race.)
• PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (9-11/16, likely voters, 4/19-27 in parentheses):
John Callahan (D): 38 (33)
Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (45)
Jake Towne (I): 3 (?)
Undecided: 10 (22)
(MoE: ±5%)
John Callahan’s one of the best Dem challengers to a GOP incumbent this cycle, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him to make up that last 12 points against Charlie Dent.
• NRSC: Here’s an interesting Roll Call dispatch from the front lines in the war between the NRSC and the Army of One known as Jim DeMint. DeMint is apparently dissatisfied with current NRSC allocations, and is moving money from his own personal stash to bolster Sharron Angle in Nevada ($156K) and Ken Buck in Colorado ($250K). The NRSC has reserved $3.2 million for Buck in TV time, more than any other candidate, so his concerns about Colorado may be misplaced.
• SSP TV:
• IL-Sen: The DSCC hits Mark Kirk for voting against unemployment extensions and minimum wage raises
• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt disappears down the meta rabbithole, with an attack ad about Robin Carnahan’s attack ads
• NV-Sen: Can we just have Harry Reid handle the advertising for all our candidates? He turns up the heat even higher on Sharron Angle, saying she wants to privatize the VA and “end our promise to our veterans”
• IA-Gov: Two separate ads for Chet Culver, one featuring endorsements from his immediate family members, the other making the case that “hey, Iowa’s not that bad off compared to all those other states”
• NM-Gov: Susana Martinez’s ad is a positive bio spot recounting her early prosecuting days
• SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen’s TV ad features a litany of reasons to be suspicious of Nikki Haley, recited by various average folks
• OH-16: The DCCC’s newest spot is a tax-time two-fer, hitting Jim Renacci on supporting the 23% “fair tax” and on his own pile of back taxes owed
• OR-05: Kurt Schrader’s newest is a testimonial from a thankful veteran
• TN-08: Roy Herron’s newest ad hits Stephen Fincher mostly on his various campaign finance discrepancies of misfilings and mysterious loans
• WI-07: Julie Lassa’s newest ad features criticism from a Sean Duffy underling from the DA’s office in Ashland County, focusing on his neglect of that stepping-stone job
• Rasmussen:
• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 25%, Joe Miller (R) 42%, Lisa Murkowski (W-I-inc) 27%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 49%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%
• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%
• Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):
• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%
• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%
• DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 39%
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 41%, John Kasich (R) 47%
• OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 36%, Rob Portman (R) 49%
• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 40%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%
The D-trip is out with four new internal polls showing Democratic incumbents in the lead.
KY-06: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):
Ben Chandler (D-inc): 52
Andy Barr (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.9%)
NM-02: Anzalone Liszt for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):
Harry Teague (D-inc): 51
Steve Pearce (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)
OR-05: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):
Kurt Schrader (D-inc): 42
Scott Bruun (R): 29
(MoE: ±4.9%)
PA-12: Grove Insight for the DCCC (9/7-9, likely voters):
Mark Critz (D-inc): 48
Tim Burns (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)