Tag: OH-09

With only two weeks remaining, it’s time for another round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings. With DCCC triage in full effect, giving us a clear picture of who’s on the very wrong side of the House firewall, you may notice that this is the first time we’ve added House incumbents to the “Lean Republican” column. (In an interesting bit of symmetry, FL-24 was also the first race in 2008 where we dropped an incumbent — Tom Feeney — to “Lean D,” also about two weeks prior to the election.)

• DE-Sen: Lean D to Likely D
• FL-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• OH-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
• WI-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

• IL-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
• ME-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
• NH-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
• SC-Gov: Likely R to Lean R

• AR-04: Safe D to Likely D
• AZ-07: Safe D to Tossup
• AZ-08: Lean D to Tossup
• CA-11: Lean D to Tossup
• CA-20: Likely D to Lean D
• FL-24: Tossup to Lean R
• GA-08: Lean D to Tossup
• ID-01: Tossup to Lean D
• IL-11: Tossup to Lean R
• IL-17: Lean D to Tossup
• IN-08: Lean R to Likely R
• MA-04: Safe D to Likely D
• MI-15: Safe D to Likely D
• MN-08: Safe D to Likely D
• MS-04: Likely D to Lean D
• NC-08: Lean D to Tossup
• NJ-12: Likely D to Lean D
• NY-04: Safe D to Likely D
• NY-22: Safe D to Likely D
• OH-01: Tossup to Lean R
• OH-06: Likely D to Lean D
• OH-09: Likely D to Safe D
• OH-13: Tossup to Lean D
• OH-15: Tossup to Lean R
• OR-04: Safe D to Likely D
• PA-03: Tossup to Lean R
• PA-07: Lean R to Tossup
• TX-17: Tossup to Lean R
• WA-08: Likely R to Lean R

28 of these changes favor Republicans; 9 races (DE-Sen, 3 of the 4 gubernatorial races, and 5 House races, including the Ohio implosion duo) have moved in the Democratic direction.

What would you do without the Daily Digests?

MO-Sen: Republican media trackers tell Politico that the DSCC has cancelled $1.3 million worth of ad buys in Kansas City and St. Louis for the final week before the election. The DS tried to push back, saying that “decisions are made on a week-to-week basis,” but as Swingnuts well know, cancelling early reservations now subjects you to forfeiting deposits – and means you have to pay higher rates if you decide to go back in later. In other words, late cancellations are not made lightly.

WV-Sen: John Raese has one simple request. And that is to have sharks with frickin’ laser beams attached to their heads!

NV-Sen: So maybe some of that cash earmarked for Missouri is going to Nevada instead. On the heels of Sharron Angle’s eye-bursting $14 million haul, the DSCC is making its first ad reservations in the Silver State, apparently for a million bucks a week.

GA-Gov: Wow, Nathan Deal really is the epitome of the corrupt scumbag who thinks the purposes of getting elected to public office is to use his position for personal gain. As the AP explains: “While in Congress, Republican Nathan Deal lobbied Georgia’s attorney general and top state environmental officials to allow the development of a landfill that he and his business partner wanted next to their auto salvage yard….” Note that though this involves Deal’s auto salvage business, this is actually a different scandal from the one which inspired him to resign from Congress (there, he had lobbied the state from his perch in the House to preserve a questionable vehicle inspection program from which he profited immensely).

NY-Gov: For the trouble of offering a half-assed, bullshit, “I’m sorry if you were offended” non-apology, Carl Paladino has now lost the backing of the right-wing rabbi, Yehuda Levin, who helped pen the anti-gay speech which got Paladino into such hot water to begin with.

Relatedly, a truly awesome catch by Politico’s Maggie Haberman: She digs waaay deep to link a story at the Orthodox-oriented news blog Voz Iz Neias (Yiddish for “What’s News?”) about Paladino’s flubbed outreach in the Orthodox community. Though it’s getting far less play than his homophobic outburst, Paladino also attacked a bunch of big-time rebbes (Hasidic leaders) for supposedly being suckered into going soft on the libruhl Andrew Cuomo (who had also done the ritual meet-and-greets in Hasidic communities). Several prominent rabbis are now rebuking Paladino for waltzing on to their turf and making such presumptuous accusations against some of their own. So not only did Paladino piss off half the state thanks to this trip, he pissed off the very people he was trying to win over! In a word: fail.

CA-03: There aren’t a whole lot of bright spots these days, but one of them is definitely Dan Lungren. The former state AG managed to win in 2008 against a badly underfunded opponent with less than 50% of the vote, and has been getting his ass kicked in fundraising literally every quarter this cycle by Ami Bera. So with his back against the wall, Karl Rove is coming to the rescue. American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS is launching ads in the district on Friday, but NWOTSOTB as yet.

CA-45: You know I’m a ratfucking fetishist, so of course it warms my heart to hear that Dem Steve Pougnet is doing his best to prop up teabagger Bill Lussenheide. He’s targeting Republicans with robocalls that say Lussenheide is the “true conservative” – but he’s also sending out mailers to the same households describing him as “extreme” and “dangerous” while calling Rep. Mary Bono Mack a “raging liberal.” I imagine the idea is that what’s “extreme” and “dangerous” to normal people is actually appealing to crazies. I also love the fact that Bono Mack’s people whined that this was a “dirty trick” – just shows they are a bunch of weenies who don’t know how to fight.

LA-02: Man, it seems like most pols in Louisiana care about party loyalty as much as the writers of LOST cared about not pissing off their fans after six fucking years of slavishly watching that goddamn… uh, where was I? Oh yeah, state Rep. Juan LaFonta, who got pasted in the Democratic primary by Cedric Richmond, has decided to endorse Republican Rep. Joe Cao for re-election. This does not seem like the winning move to me. (And screw you, J. J. Abrams!)

OH-09: This comment has the flavor of Star Trek nerds debating whether Captain Picard ever wore the Federation dress uniform while on the bridge of the Enterprise D during season 4… only, except, you know, this guy is actually trying to be serious. Rich Iott’s spokesbot pleaded with Politico to understand that no, it was an SS uniform, not a NAZI uniform! I’m sure that will please John Boehner, who, as it turns out, gave $5,000 to Iott last month. Think he wants his Reichsmarks back?

PA-03: Paging Mark Twain… Mark Twain to the white courtesy phone. The AFSCME evidently thinks that rumors of Kathy Dahlkemper’s demise are at least somewhat exaggerated, since they’re dropping $350K on ads on her behalf. Triage is a tricky business.

WI-08: Aaron Blake tweets that the DCCC is “pulling out” of the 8th CD, but as is often the case, the picture is more nuanced. First off, AFSCME just dropped $750K here (to which Blake alludes). Secondly, Kagen is personally wealthy. In fact, in 2008, he was the 28th-richest member of the House, with a net worth of anywhere between $7 and $20 million. Hopefully his investments haven’t taken too bad of hit the last couple of years and he can still afford to spend large (he gave his campaign almost $900K last cycle).

SSP TV:

• GA-08: Jim Marshall’s anti-Pelosi ad actually has hippies in it – for reals
• NY-20: Fuck yes – Scott Murphy’s latest lacerates Chris Gibson for supporting repeal of the healthcare reform bill. Murphy, like Earl Pomeroy, knows the only way to win is to go loud and proud
• TN-04: Lincoln Davis lacerates Scott DesJarlais for reportedly threatening his ex-wife with a gun – and threatening to kill himself. Stories like this were a big reason why Don Sherwood and Randy Kuhl both lost
• ID-01: On behalf of Walt Minnick, the mother of a woman murdered by her abuser hits Raul Labrador for his failure to support laws that would protect women in abusive relationships
• MA-06: Republican Bill Hudak hits Rep. John Tierney on a story we’ve been somewhat remiss in covering here: namely, his wife’s recent guilty plea for tax fraud. By referring to “Tierney’s family,” the ad makes it sound like Tierney himself was involved, but Hudak gets away with this legerdemain because the wife’s brother (family by marriage, I suppose) was also involved. The ad is only running on cable (Hudak had less than $100K on hand at the end of August)

Independent Expenditures:

• America’s Families First Action Fund: Sounds like a GOP group, but it’s actually Dem to the bone: $80K against David Schweikert (AZ-05); $403K against David Rivera (FL-25); $94K on mail against Bob Dold! (FL-25); $200K against Randy Hultgren (IL-14)
• EMILY: $520K against Tom Ganley (OH-13); $212K against Cory Gardner (CO-04); $20K against Frank Guinta (NH-01)
• NEA: $1.4 million against Ken Buck (CO-Sen); $306K against Harold Johnson (NC-08)
• Realtors: $450K for Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
• SEIU: $100K on radio ads for Cedric Richmond (LA-02); smaller amounts in MI-07 & IL-17
• VoteVets: $325K cable buy against Pat Toomey (PA-Sen); $31K buy against Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08); $296K for Harry Reid (NV-Sen)

AK-Sen: Joe Miller is taking a vow of omertà, insisting that he simply won’t answer any more questions about his personal background. He’s also taking a page right out of the Sarah Palin playbook, whining that he’s been the victim of “journalist impropriety,” and making up stories about reporters gaining access to his “confidential file,” in “violation of the law.” I despairingly think that Miller won’t pay the price for this that he ought to – look at Rick Perry, who refuses to meet with newspaper editorial boards, as an example.

Also of note: Miller is trying to unring that Seventeenther bell a bit – but not really. His stance now is that a constitutional amendment to eliminate the direct election of senators is not “practical,” but sure sounds like he’d love to do it if he could. What a weirdo.

NV-Sen: Clinton alert! The Big Dog will be in Nevada today to campaign with Harry Reid.

WV-Sen: Clinton alert (retroactive)! Bill Clinton was in Morgantown yesterday, campaigning for Joe Manchin. He made a point of saying that the “hick-y” ad “burns me up.”

KS-Gov: This creeptastic story is finally getting some play in the Kansas gubernatorial race. Back around 2002 or so, Sam Brownback was roommates in Washington, DC with a radical cleric named Lou Engle. You might remember Engle as the Talibangelist who led a “prayer” rally in Uganda right when the country was debating passage of a bill which would have implemented the death penalty for homosexuals. Though he later tried to distance himself from the measure, at the time, Engle “praised the country’s ‘courage’ and ‘righteousness’ in promoting the bill. In the past, Engle has also donated to Brownback’s campaigns, and Brownback has done events with him as recently as last year. Seemingly caught off-guard by all this, the Brownback campaign had no statement in response.

NY-Gov: When you’ve lost Rudy Giuliani… His Dingusness attacked fellow Republican Carl Paladino over his anti-gay remarks, calling them “highly offensive” and saying Paladino should apologize. Not really sure what Rudy’s angle is here, though.

TN-Gov: Republican gubernatorial nominee Bill Haslam poured in another $2.8 million of his own money in the third quarter, for $4.3 mil total. He’s also raised a pretty amazing $12.5 million from outside donors, all told; combined, this apparently makes for a new Tennessee record. (Recall that Haslam had a very competitive GOP primary.) Dem Mike McWherter hasn’t released 3Q nums yet, but he’s raised just a fraction of what Haslam has.

FL-22: Barack Obama did a fundraiser last night at the home of former NBA great Alonzo Mourning (which we mentioned to you back in SSP Amazing Digest #88). The event raised a million bucks, split between the Ron Klein campaign and the DNC. In attendance were Miami Heat players Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade (but not LeBron James), as well as Magic Johnson.

ME-02: Looks like Jason Levesque is going to have to beg his mom for rides to campaign rallies: the Republican just got his license suspended, after three speeding convictions in the past year. Lifetime, he has 18 driving-related convictions (including nine for speeding), and his licenses has been suspended three times.

NV-03: Joe Heck has a serious problem wrapped around his neck like a twenty-pound goiter. It’s called Sharron Angle, and he just doesn’t know what do with it. When asked directly by a voter whether he planned to vote for his own party’s senate nominee, Heck responded: “I’m waiting to see all of the evidence before I make my choice.”

NY-01: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is coming to NYC to do a fundraiser for Tim Bishop on Oct. 26th. Seems awfully late in the game to be raising scratch, but I suppose a Biden event is such a sure thing that Bishop can max out the campaign credit cards against the expected take.

OH-09: As he watches his candidacy circle the drain, Rich Iott lashed out at the top-ranking Jewish Republican in the Milky Way, Eric Cantor, who had repudiated him a day earlier:

“I think that Representative Cantor did what so many career politicians do. He reacted before he had all the facts. He didn’t know the whole story. He didn’t understand what historical reenacting is all about, or the education side of it. And he just made a decision without all the facts. My opponent here is cut out of the same cloth. Those are the people who passed the health care bill before they knew what was in it. The same folks who passed the stimulus bill….”

Because comparing the minority whip to Democrats is a good idea for a Republican candidate with a future, right? Anyhow, for those of you who perhaps wanted to hold out hope that Iott was just some weird LARPer (but I repeat myself), please review this paragraph taken from the website of his fellow Nazi re-enactors:

Nazi Germany had no problem in recruiting the multitudes of volunteers willing to lay down their lives to ensure a “New and Free Europe”, free of the threat of Communism. National Socialism was seen by many in Holland, Denmark, Norway, Finland, and other eastern European and Balkan countries as the protector of personal freedom and their very way of life, despite the true underlying totalitarian (and quite twisted, in most cases) nature of the movement. Regardless, thousands upon thousands of valiant men died defending their respective countries in the name of a better tomorrow. We salute these idealists; no matter how unsavory the Nazi government was, the front-line soldiers of the Waffen-SS (in particular the foreign volunteers) gave their lives for their loved ones and a basic desire to be free.

OR-04: There’s no direct quote here, but the Douglas County News-Review reports that Rep. Peter DeFazio “says he favors replacing Pelosi as speaker if Democrats retain their majority.” DeFazio has long had an antagonistic relationship with Pelosi, most recently coming to a head with his refusal to vote for the stimulus, allegedly from the left.

OR-05: These Republicans have no respect for Godwin’s Law, do they? Speaking of the healthcare reform bill, Scott Bruun said:

“From a social perspective, it’s right up there, I would argue – probably the fugitive slave law was worse. But still, the healthcare bill was pretty darn bad.”

The Fugitive Slave Act, which “required any runaway slaves who had escaped their bondage and were living free in the Northern states be returned to their owners” – and was one of the causes of the Civil War. Right on!

PA-03, PA-12: Biden alert (retroactive)! The VPOTUS did a fundraiser in Pittsburgh with both Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper and Mark Critz in attendance. The Hill makes a big deal out of the fact that this event didn’t take place in Critz’s district – but I’m just going to guess that there are a lot more wealthy Dems in the P’burgh area than in the 12th CD.

PA-06: Can an internal ever be too good? Well, you tell me if you believe this Susquehanna survey that Jim Gerlach is touting, which has him up by a massive 61-31 spread. Still, now would be a good time for Manan Trivedi or the DCCC to show us something different.

PA-11: If Paul Kanjorski somehow, improbably, survives once more, he will owe his fortune yet again to the realtors, who have already spent three-quarters of a million on ads on his behalf, after spending a million bucks last time.

Polltopia: Time to help PPP pick their next state to poll.

SSP TV:

• FL-Gov: In a move we’ve seen a few times this cycle, Alex Sink is trying out the long-form political ad, this time with a 2-minute spot detailing Rick Scott’s Medicare fraud and his attempts to hide from it
• WA-08: In her third ad, Suzan DelBene hits Reichert on raising taxes & shipping jobs overseas

Independent Expenditures:

• AFSCME: Throws down $750K against Republican roofer Reid Ribble (WI-08) and $628K against GOPer Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08)
• NRA: Almost $3 million in senate buys (here & here)
• NRCC: Huge $8.25 million buy
• Realtors: CA-18 (for Dennis Cardoza); IL-14 & PA-11 (for Bill Foster & Paul Kanjorski)
• TX-23: A group called “The American Worker, Inc.” is running some $200K worth of ads against Republican Quico Canseco

This takes the cake, doesn’t it?

An election year already notable for its menagerie of extreme and unusual candidates can add another one: Rich Iott, the Republican nominee for Congress from Ohio’s 9th District, and a Tea Party favorite, who for years donned a German Waffen SS uniform and participated in Nazi re-enactments.

Iott, whose district lies in Northwest Ohio, was involved with a group that calls itself Wiking, whose members are devoted to re-enacting the exploits of an actual Nazi division, the 5th SS Panzer Division Wiking, which fought mainly on the Eastern Front during World War II. Iott’s participation in the Wiking group is not mentioned on his campaign’s website, and his name and photographs were removed from the Wiking website.

When contacted by The Atlantic, Iott confirmed his involvement with the group over a number of years, but said his interest in Nazi Germany was historical and he does not subscribe to the tenets of Nazism. “No, absolutely not,” he said. “In fact, there’s a disclaimer on the [Wiking] website. And you’ll find that on almost any reenactment website. It’s purely historical interest in World War II.”

Yeah, this is the guy:

Major props to the Atlantic’s excellent Josh Green for uncovering the story. Click the link to read more – and see more pics and even a video. I think my recent cracks about “consolidating panzer divisions” might wind up proving literally true in this district.

UPDATE: Good catch by TPM – the NRCC has already removed Iott from its Young Guns list.

AK-Sen: Another great catch by the Mudflats, and I’m ashamed I missed this one myself. In trying to explain why he applied for an indigent hunting license (for people making less than $8200/yr), Joe Miller claimed he was on a merit scholarship at Yale. Fortunately, Mudflats catches something about my alma mater that managed to slip my mind: Yale doesn’t offer merit scholarships. What lie will come next from the Miller camp?

CT-Sen: Heartless bastard Linda McMahon said she wants to lower the minimum wage – and even admitted she didn’t fucking know what the current minimum wage is! I love it when zillionaire assholes think that the guys on the bottom rung should be shoved down a rung further. Eh, fuck you, Linda McMahon.

Connecticut’s Working Families Party also took this opportunity to slam McMahon and endorse Dem Richard Blumenthal, who will benefit from having the WFP line. (Connecticut, like New York, allows fusion voting.) In case you were wondering, all five of CT’s Congressmembers have the WFP’s backing, as does gubernatorial nominee Dan Malloy.

DE-Sen: When called on the fact that her LinkedIn page made the extremely lulzy claim that she’d studied at Oxford, Christine O’Donnell claimed someone else had posted the profile. Now a different version has been uncovered at ZoomInfo (which says the profile was claimed – presumably by O’Donnell – through a “double opt-in process”), and it, too, has the Oxford bullshit. I’d say “busted!”, but is this even remotely a surprise?

KY-Sen: Have you seen Jack Conway’s excellent new ad about Kentucky’s drug problem? Well, Rand Paul thinks it’s “kind of tacky and really dishonest and kind of creepy.” Mike Donta, the man featured in the ad who lost his son to drug addiction, said Paul’s childish reaction is an “insult,” both to him and other families battling this problem.

And one other important note: The ad buy that the DSCC supposedly cancelled here has been “bought back,” according to Aaron Blake.

OH-Sen: The Cleveland Plain Dealer obtained an internal Lee Fisher finance document, which lays out a bunch of different scenarios for keeping the campaign financially afloat in the final month of the race. It’s not a pretty picture – one nuclear option involves laying off ten staff members to pay for TV time. And worst of all, Fisher apparently raised less than a million bucks in the quarter. Sigh.

WV-Sen: Despite John Raese’s efforts to paint him as weak on coal, Dem Gov. Joe Manchin secured the endorsement of the West Virginia Coal Association, which “represents 90 percent of the state’s coal producers.”

HI-Gov: He doesn’t sound quite like an anti-vax nutter, but Republican Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona is refusing to get a flu shot himself, saying he’s “not convinced that vaccines are more beneficial that harmful,” despite encouraging state residents to get vaccinated. Yeah, that’s helpful.

CO-04: If I had my dream job, newspaper writers would refer to me as “Democratic ratfucker DavidNYC,” because really, I love nothing more than a good ratfuck. So kudos to “Our Community Votes,” which is running a radio ad “attacking” a conservative independent candidate, ostensibly in the hopes of raising his profile and making him more appealing to wingers. It’s not clear who’s behind the group, but “public records shows that it shares Washington, D.C., office space with other groups tied to Steve Rosenthal, a longtime labor movement and Democratic strategist and former political director of the AFL-CIO.” And there’s real money behind this buy, too: $100,000 worth.

CO-07: The douchebags at the American Future Fund are spending $560K trying to unseat Ed Perlmutter, and apparently in a first for them, this includes a canvass operation, not just ad buys.

IL-10: Another day, another legal hassle for Bob Dold! The FEC dinged him for failing to report a $17,000 expenditure for “a motor coach that was used in Dold’s ads as part of a bus tour.” Dold submitted amended reports which showed several other expenditures and debts that somehow went missing from his earlier filings. How do you just forget about $17,000? Bob Dold!

WA-08: Ugh – this is pathetic. Evidently the League of Conservation Voters – another one of those ostensibly liberal groups that loved to endorse so-called “moderate” Republicans – enjoys getting abused. Earlier this year, Dave Reichert admitted that he occasionally votes a pro-environment line simply to remain in office. Despite this, the LCV is endorsing Reichert on account of his cap-and-trade vote. Glad to see they admire sincerity so much.

Site News: The Swing State Project just enjoyed its biggest month ever, with over 700,000 pageviews and more than 350,000 visitors. Here’s hoping the trend continues!

SSP-TV:

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan attacks Roy Blunt for being a “prodigious pork-meister.” Does anyone else think this is as lame and boring as when Republicans try to pin this on us?
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid has led the way with relentless, hard-hitting, and just plain good attack ads this cycle. Yeah, Sharron Angle provides a lot of fodder, but all Republicans have weak spots. This ad nails her for trying to repeal a law which requires insurance companies to cover mammograms
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin hits John Raese with his own words, including Raese’s infamous “I made money the old-fashioned way – I inherited it” gem
• CO-Gov: Dan Maes (yeah, I know!!) has a really boring minute-long intro ad. No word on the size of the “buy,” but I doubt he could even afford to run Google ads on SSP
• FL-25: Two ads from GOPer David Rivera – the first a boring spot about cutting government spending (check out the weird artifacts bouncing off his shirt at 27 seconds – you think YouTube? or is the broadcast version also messed up?); the second, a litany of attacks on Joe Garcia (and the production values are weak here, too). Meanwhile, Garcia has a much better ad hitting Rivera for the infamous “ramming a truck off the road” incident
• IL-10: Bob Dold! thinks that Dan Seals is a job killer
• ME-02: Fuck, these veteran ads always make me well up a bit. Another good one on VA health clinics, from Mike Michaud (his first in four years)
• OH-09: Rich Iott attacks Marcy Kaptur as a “liar” for a supposedly misleading ad (I think this is it) and brings up the 11% unemployment rate in Toledo

Independent Expenditures:

• Concerned Taxpayers: $92K for GOPer Art Robinson (OR-04) and $47K against Frank Kratovil (MD-01)
• FIRST!… Amendment Alliance: $117K against Harry Reid (NV-Sen) (Topic: The First Amendment Alliance doesn’t care about the first amendment or alliances. Discuss)
• Realtors: $1.3 million spread among Bill Foster (IL-14), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Ken Calvert (CA-44), and Dave Reichert (WA-08), including polls
• Revere America: George Pataki’s band of fuckwits is spending over $400K on ads against Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01) and over $350K against John Hall (NY-19) (note second buy was made 9/17 but report filed 9/30 in violation of FEC rules)

An all-House digest today – and it’s an hour earlier than usual! Remember, today is primary day in IN, NC & OH, so be sure to check out SSP’s handy election guide.

AL-07: Attorney Terri Sewell, who is probably the candidate ideologically closest to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis, is going up with a TV ad buy in Montgomery and Birmingham which will stay up through the primary (which is a month from now). No word on the size of the buy, though.

CT-02: Republicans are courting former television news anchor Janet Peckinpaugh to run against Rep. Joe Courtney, who has luckily skated by without much in the way of opposition this cycle. Peckinpaugh says she’s considering it. She was most recently seen shilling for a now-defunct mortgage company in deceptive, TV news-like ads, clearly trading on her reputation as a newsreader. The company, Lend America, shut down in December after it was placed under federal investigation.

FL-12: After screwing up the establishment’s efforts to clear the GOP primary field for ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross by jumping into the race, Polk County Comm’r Randy Wilkinson is bidding adieu to the Republican Party. Instead, he’s going to run as the Tea Party candidate (there’s an actual Tea Party in Florida, just like the Whigs). Wilkinson has raised very little money – his FEC reports are a mess, and he seems to like filing them in hand-written form, so he doesn’t even appear in their electronic database.

FL-21: What a bummer – zero Dems filed in the open 21st CD, which means that Mario Diaz-Balart will automatically inherit his brother Lincoln’s seat. I can’t really blame folks too much, though, as Florida has especially onerous ballot access requirements. If you don’t petition on, you have to pay a filing fee, which is an insane $10,000+.

HI-01: The DCCC threw down another $70K for negative ads against Charles Djou.

ID-01, OH-15: We mentioned the other day that GOPer Steve Stivers, busy with a rematch against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15, said he favors repealing the 17th amendment – the one which gives citizens the right to vote for their senators (rather than having them be appointed by state legislatures). Well, after taking a lot of much-deserved heat, he’s backed off that fantasy. But his would-be colleague, Vaughn Ward, is taking up the mantle. Ward, running against Rep. Walt Minnick in ID-01, offered a rationale worthy of Miss Teen South Carolina, saying “When you look at how come state’s rights have been so abrogated, it’s because of things like the 17th Amendment that has taken away those rights from our states.” Yuh huh. Exactly.

IL-08: Just click the link and read about the greatest political implosion of the entire cycle. (Thankfully, it’s the bad guys.) More here, here, and here.

KS-03: Along with Joe Garcia (see yesterday’s morning digest), the DCCC added another candidate to their Red to Blue list, Stephene Moore, who is the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore.

MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry, running for Bill Delahunt’s open seat, scored an endorsement from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney. Perry, who was also previously endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown, has a primary against ex-state Treasurer Joe Malone. Malone has some baggage-related cooties, which probably explains Perry’s run of good fortune.

MD-01 (PDF): Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Americans for Prosperity (R) (4/25-26, likely voters, no trendlines):

Frank Kratovil (D-inc): 36

Andy Harris (R): 39

Richard Davis (L): 6

Other: 1

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Two things about this poll: First off, in contravention of appropriate practice, POS asked all kinds of axe-grindy issue questions (“Gov. O’Malley raised taxes by $1.3 billion”) before getting to the horserace question. This does damage to POS’s reputation as a supposedly respectable pollster. Secondly, the weird thing is that Harris switched pollsters – and his last survey, from the Tarrance Group back in November, had him up by a whopping 52-39. While it’s not a proper trendline, you gotta wonder – is Harris slipping? Or is he getting snowed by his various pollsters? (Update: D’oh! Our mistake — this poll was not done for Harris, but actually the right-wing consortium of douches known as the Americans for Prosperity.)

MI-01: Dem state Rep. Joel Sheltrown, who got into the race to replace Bart Stupak just a few weeks ago, is bowing out.

MI-09: Self-funder Gene Goodman is dropping out of the race to take on Rep. Gary Peters, despite having loaned his campaign $450K. That leaves ex-state Rep. Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski and former Oakland County GOP Chair Paul Welday in the running, both of whom have had unimpressive fundraising – and in fact, Rocky is yet another victim (albeit a more minor one) of Base Connect.

Meanwhile, we missed a Welday internal poll from a couple of weeks ago (taken by Mitchell Research & Communications), which had Peters leading by just 44-43. The poll sampled just 300 LVs, though, and according to the Hotline, was in the field at two discontiguous times. Peters’ camp attacked the poll’s sample composition, but Steve Mitchell says he used the same methodology as he did in September of 2008, when (according to the article), ” he declared Peters was going to defeat Joe Knollenberg.” Is this hindsight proving to be 20/20? Mitchell’s poll from back then had the race tied.

NY-13: Global Strategy Group (D) for Mike McMahon (4/7-11, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike McMahon (D-inc): 56

Mike Allegretti (R): 24

Undecided: 20

Mike McMahon (D-inc): 56

Mike Grimm (R): 23

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4.9%)

OH-09: Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who is not really on anyone’s radar in terms of having a competitive race, is nonetheless facing a moneybags challenger. Former Food Town CEO Rich Iott just dumped $319,000 into his campaign. Kaptur has over a million on hand, and the 9th CD voted 62% for Obama and 58% for Kerry.

PA-12: Anzalone-Liszt (D) for the DCCC (4/27-29, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mark Critz (D): 43

Tim Burns (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

TN-08: A couple of disgusting low-lifes running for TN-08, Ron Kirkland and Randy Smith, had this delightful exchange at a candidate forum:

Kirkland, of Jackson, referred to his Army training during the Vietnam War and said: “I can tell you if there were any homosexuals in that group, they were taken care of in ways I can’t describe to you.”

Smith, a chef from Mercer who served in the Navy during the Gulf War, said: “I definitely wouldn’t want to share a shower with a homosexual. We took care of that kind of stuff, just like (Kirkland) said.”

These sick bastards have serious issues.

SD-AL: Heh – GOP state Rep. Kristi Noem has a biographical spot up on the air, talking about her return to her family farm after her father’s death. The only problem is that she shot the ad in Texas – which became apparent given that the backdrop (a grove of leafy green trees) is something you can’t really find in North South Dakota this time of year. Reminds me of when Bob Schaffer ran an ad pretending that Alaska’s Mount McKinley was actually Colorado’s famous Pikes Peak while running for CO-Sen in 2008.

I’m sure Rep. Kaptur is sweating bullets over this.

http://briefingroom.thehill.co…

‘Joe the Plumber’ Mulling Run for Congress

Joe Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. “Joe the Plumber,” said Friday he may consider running for Congress in 2010, challenging longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) in the Toledo-area district.

Following the break is a complete roundup and ranking of Ohio races for the U.S. House of Representatives. I have separated them into Republican-held and Democratic-held seats and divided each into tiers. Within each tier they are ranked in order of likelihood of changing parties.

Democrats were very successful in 2006 in winning a U.S. Senate seat, four out of five statewide offices, and a net gain of seven seats in the Ohio House of Representatives, but  the U.S. House races were a relative disappointment. The party gained only one seat and watched two promising races end in narrow losses after recounts. In this cycle Ohio has three open GOP seats and perhaps four or five races altogether that already look very promising, with another two or three that could be added to that list. The DCCC has already added three races to their “Red to Blue” program and is likely to take an interest in at least two more. In other words, Ohio is once again a critical congressional battleground.

Republican-Held Seats

Tier One: Toss-Up

15th District Central Ohio (includes part of Columbus and west and northwest suburbs, Hilliard, Marysville). Cook PVI R+1.1. Bush won 50% in 2004. In 2006 retiring incumbent Deborah Pryce (R) defeated Mary Jo Kilroy (D) by just over 1,000 votes. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 62.1% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus) is running almost like an incumbent after her photo finish in 2006 and the retirement of her opponent. She has raised an impressive amount of money and has strong support from labor, womens’ groups (including Emily’s List) and among students, who are very numerous in this district. She is an energetic campaigner although not the most polished of public speakers. Opponent State Sen. Steve Stivers (R-Upper Arlington), an Iraq veteran and former bank lobbyist, is a strong adversary with big support from the business community. Independent candidate Don Elijah Eckhart (I-Galloway) figures to take a few votes away from Stivers.

16th District NE Ohio (includes Canton, Massillon, Alliance, Wadsworth, Medina, Wooster, Ashland). Cook PVI R+3.6. Bush won 54% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Ralph Regula (R), who is retiring, fared poorly in the GOP primary (58% to 43% over conservative Matt Miller (R-Ashland)) and defeated political novice Rev. Tom Shaw (D-Wooster) by the surprisingly narrow margin of 59% to 41% in the general election. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 60.8% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

Iraq veteran and former collegiate baseball star State Sen. John Boccieri (D-New Middletown) is a terrific candidate and is adored in his state legislative district. This congressional district unfortunately includes only a tiny slice of his home turf, but Boccieri is working very hard to build name recognition here and he has the energy and political talent to make it work. Opponent State Sen. Kirk Schuring (R-Canton), a moderate, is strong in vote-rich Stark County but barely escaped a three-way primary against two more conservative opponents. The keys to this election are whether the Republican base turns out for Schuring and whether Boccieri can hold down Schuring’s advantage in blue-trending Stark County while gaining big vote totals elsewhere.

Tier Two: Leans Republican

1st District SW Ohio (includes part of Cincinnati and western suburbs). Cook PVI R+1. Bush won 50% of the vote in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Steve Chabot (R) defeated second-time challenger Councilman John Cranley (D) by 53% to 47%. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 55.4% Democratic. DCCC Red-to-Blue program.

Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Westwood) defied pundits and polls by holding off a hard-charging challenger last cycle. State Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-Price Hill) is thought to be a stronger opponent because his base is in the suburbs rather than the city, and like Cranley before him he has moderate-to-conservative positions on social issues that should have cross-over appeal in this swing district. Chabot was the target of independent attack ads over his votes against expanding SCHIP during the past year. Independent Rich Stevenson (I) is also in the race.

2nd District SW Ohio (includes part of Cincinnati and eastern suburbs, Lebanon, Portsmouth). Cook PVI R+13. Bush won 64% in 2004. Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R) defeated Dr. Victoria Wulsin (D) by less than 3,000 votes (51% to 49%) in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 57.2% Democratic.

Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) has embarrassed herself on the floor of the House with her assault on Rep. Jack Murtha (D-PA) and by plagiarism in a constituent newsletter and exaggerating her credentials, but she is probably in a stronger position now than 2006 because she has completed a full term in office. Dr. Victoria Wells Wulsin (D-Indian Hill) emerged victorious from a bruising primary in which she endured withering (and unsubstantiated) attacks on her medical ethics. Wulsin takes heart from having outgained Schmidt in their respective primaries (54,965 to 40,891) and from having gained more Democratic votes and coming closer to winning in 2006 than any previous Democratic candidate since 1980. She is an experienced campaigner after two previous outings. Independent David Krikorian (I) is reportedly gathering signatures to join the race.

Tier Three: Likely Republican

14th District NE Ohio (includes northeast suburbs of Akron, Willoughby, Mentor, Ashtabula). Cook PVI R+2. Bush won 52% in 2004. Incumbent Steve LaTourette (R) defeated law professor Lew Katz (D) by 58% to 39% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 64.9% Democratic.

Rep. Steven LaTourette (R-Chagrin Falls) has his toughest opponent since he defeated incumbent Eric Fingerhut (D) 14 years ago. Vietnam veteran and former appellate judge William O’Neill (D-South Russell) has good name recognition from his appellate judicial races and 2006 Ohio Supreme Court bid, has raised serious money (although he is still far behind LaTourette), and has a direct, plain-spoken personality (softened by his remarkable second career as a pediatric ER nurse) that should serve him well in this suburban-to-rural swing district. LaTourette’s biggest assets have been his ability to bring home federal dollars, which is blunted by being in the minority, and his reputation as a moderate, which is questionable. LaTourette is somewhat tainted by links to Jack Abramoff and Bob Ney, breaking a promise to vote against CAFTA, and his divorce and affair with a staffer whom he latter married. Unfortunately O’Neill underwent heart bypass surgery recently that will slow him down for another month or so, but he is a determined and formidable candidate who could elevate this to a top tier race.

Tier Four: High Probability Republican

7th District. South Central Ohio (includes southwest suburbs of Columbus, Lancaster, Xenia, Circleville, Springfield). Cook PVI R+6.0. Bush won 57% in 2004. Retiring incumbent Dave Hobson defeated repeat challenger Bill Conner (D) by 61% to 39% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 52.9% Democratic.

This race has upside potential because it is an open seat. Corporate attorney Sharen Neuhardt (D-Yellow Springs) emerged from a six-way primary through hard work and a skillful direct mailing campaign. She is a first-time candidate but she has displayed excellent potential for fund-raising, has brought aboard first-rate campaign staff, and is dedicated to taking the necessary steps to run a seriously competitive campaign. I am hoping that she will work on displaying more passion in her public speaking, which on the occasion I heard her was somewhat low-key. State Sen. Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek) is photogenic and has the support of the incumbent but hasn’t particularly distinguished himself as a state legislator.

3rd District. SW Ohio (includes Dayton and southern suburbs, Kettering, Miamisburg). Cook PVI R+3. Bush won 54% in 2004. Incumbent Michael Turner (R) defeated former federal prosecutor Richard Chema (D) by 59% to 41% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 60.2% Democratic.

This should be a swing district based on the strong performance here by Gov. Ted Strickland in 2006. It was held by Democrat Tony Hall from 1981 to 2003. Unfortunately, incumbent Rep. Michael Turner (R-Centerville) benefits from having been Mayor of Dayton, where most of the Democratic votes are located. Nevertheless, business woman and long-time political activist Jane Mitakides (D) gave Turner a fairly stiff challenge in 2004 (gaining 37.7% of the vote) and figures to improve in her second campaign and with an electorate yearning for change. Questions have been raised about Turner’s ethics, including a no-bid contract that benefited his spouse, and this could give Mitakides something of an opening if she is willing to exploit it.

12th District Central Ohio (includes part of Columbus and northeast suburbs, Dublin, Delaware). Cook PVI R+0.7. Bush won 51% in 2004. Incumbent Pat Tiberi (R) defeated former Congressman Bob Shamansky (D) by 58% to 42% in 2006. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 56.6% Democratic.

Businessman and political novice David W. Robinson (D) won a tough primary and is an intriguing candidate with possible crossover appeal. He has interesting credentials like a Ph.D. in theology and philosophy, a cross-country bicycle fund-raising trek for Alzheimers research, and working as a Presenter for Al Gore’s Climate Project initiative. If he had the benefit of political experience I’d move this race up to the next tier. [After some reflection I decdied that this race belongs in Tier Four because of the relatively even PVI and the challenger’s strong showing in a tough primary.] Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R-Westerville) is not a distinguished member of the House but held onto his seat in 2006 with nasty attack ads against his challenger.

Tier Five: Safe Republican

4th District West Central Ohio (includes Mansfield, Findlay, Marion, Lima, Bellefontaine, Sidney). Cook PVI R+14. Bush won 64% in 2004. Freshman Jim Jordan (R) defeated attorney Richard Siferd (D) by 60% to 40% in 2006.

Steelworker and labor union activist Mike Carroll (D-Mansfield) deserves a lot of credit for taking on freshman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Urbana), and this district has the second highest percentage of blue collar workers in Ohio, but it is the reddest district in the state and hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1936.

8th District. West Ohio includes northern Dayton suburbs, Troy, Hamilton, Fairfield). Cook PVI R+12. Bush won 64% in 2004. Incumbent (and House Speaker) John Boehner defeated political novice Morton Meier (D) by 64% to 36% in 2006.

House Speaker John Boehner (R-West Chester)  has enormous campaign resources. Political activist and USAF veteran Nick Von Stein (D-Mason) is a personable and promising young candidate but this hill looks too steep to climb.

5th District. North Central Ohio (includes Norwalk, Bucyrus, Tiffin, Defiance, Bowling Green, Fremont). Cook PVI R+10.1. Bush won 61% in 2004. Rep. Paul Gillmor (R), who defeated repeat challenger Robin Weirauch by 57% to 43% in 2006, died in September 2007 and State Rep. Bob Latta (R) defeated Weirauch by the same margin in a special election in December.

Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) is safe against tanning salon and karaoke entrepreneur George F. Mays (D-Norwalk), formerly a member of the fringe Reform Party.

Democratic-Held Seats

There are no open Democratic seats and at this point there aren’t any Democratic incumbents seriously at risk.

Tier One: Leans Democratic

18th District East Central Ohio (includes Chillicothe, Zanesville, Mt. Vernon, Newark and New Philadelphia). Cook PVI R+6.1. Bush won 57% in 2004. In 2006,  disgraced incumbent Bob Ney (R-Heath) resigned late in the campaign and Dover Law Director Zack Space (D) defeated replacement candidate State Sen. Joy Padgett (R-Coshocton) by 62% to 38%. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 72.5% Democratic.

Just about a year ago this was considered the NRCC’s number one target nationwide. Rep. Zack Space (D-Dover) has greatly increased his chances of holding this seat by raising over a million dollars and engaging in a remarkable series of high-visibility events throughout this far-flung district. He gets great local press and does strong case work through three district offices. He has staked out relatively conservative (and infuriating)  positions on guns and immigration that help him with conservative voters and buttress his claim to be a political independent. His opponent, former Ohio Director of Agriculture Fred Dailey (R-Mt Vernon), is not a top-notch challenger. He got 39% of the vote in a four-way GOP primary, is not considered an exciting personality or hard-working campaigner, and has lingering problems with some farmers for giving environment-damaging factory farms a free pass while running the Ohio Department of Agriculture. The NRCC and 527’s will probably pour resources into this race to try to take Space out, but he nevertheless seems to be in fairly good shape.

Tier Two: High Probability Democratic

6th District. SE Ohio (includes Athens, Marietta, Steubenville, East Liverpool). Cook PVI D+0.4. Bush won 50% in 2004. In 2006 State Sen. Charlie Wilson (D) won the Democratic primary as a write-in candidate (he had filed defective nominating petitions) and cruised to an easy general election win over former Ohio House Speaker Charles Blasdel (R) by 62% to 38% to replace Gov. Ted Strickland in this Appalachian district. 2008 congressional primary turnout was 74.6% Democratic.

Popular Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville) should prevail easily over Deputy County Recorder Richard Stobbs (R-Dillonvale) in a district that has trended strongly blue due to the popularity of Gov Strickland.

10th District. NE Ohio (includes part of Cleveland and southern and western suburbs). Cook PVI D+6. Kerry won 58% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Dennis Kucinich (D) defeated former U.S. government official Mike Dovilla (R) by 66% to 34%.

Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland) would have had a serious primary challenge from rising political force Joe Cimperman (D) if there hadn’t been three other Democrats in the race, but he should be fine against former state representative Jim Trakas (R-Independence) and independent candidate Paul Visokaj (I). [After some reflection I decided that this race belongs in Tier Two because the challenger has campaign experience, the primary revealed significant (although not over powering) dissatisfaction with the incumbent, and the PVI is not as strong as in most of the safer districts.]

Tier Three: Safe Democratic

13th District. NE Ohio (includes part of Akron and eastern suburbs, Cuyahoga Falls, Lorain, Elyria, Brnswick, Strongsville). Cook PVI D+6. Kerry won 56% in 2004. In 2006 former state representative and labor attorney Betty Sutton (D) won a close Democratic primary and handily defeated Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin (R) by 61% to 39% in the general election to replace Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Avon).

The GOP took their best shot when this was an open seat last cycle and lost by a country mile. Rep. Betty Sutton (D-Copley Township) isn’t at risk to political newcomer David S. Potter (R).

9th District North Central Ohio (includes Toledo, Sylvania, Sandusky). Cook PVI D+9. Kerry won 58% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Marcy Kaptur (D) defeated electrician Bradley Leavitt (R) by 74% to 26%.

No chance for Bradley Leavitt (R-Toledo) in his rematch against the Dean of the Ohio Congressional Delegation and labor favorite Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) in this heavily blue-collar district.

17th District NE Ohio (includes Youngstown, Niles, Warren, Kent). Cook PVI D+14. Kerry won 63% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Tim Ryan (D) defeated Don Manning (R) by 80% to 20%.

No worries for Pelosi protege and potential 2010 U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Niles) over teacher Duane V. Grassell (R-Mogadore).

11th District NE Ohio (includes part of Cleveland and eastern suburbs). Cook PVI D+33. Kerry won 81.39% in 2004. In 2006 incumbent Stephanie Tubbs Jones demolished car salesman Lindsey String by 83% to 17%.

No sweat for Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Cleveland) over political unknown Thomas Pekarek (R) in Ohio’s bluest congressional district.

Cross-posted at Ohio Daily Blog