Tag: CA-45

• AK-Sen: When Norm Coleman… the man who has pretty much set all current standards for pointlessly dragging out an election for partisan purposes… is telling you to pack it in, believe me, it’s time to pack it in. The ex-Sen. from Minnesota is the latest GOPer to tell Joe Miller to stop the madness. (What’s his angle? He may have designs on behind-the-scenes Beltway leadership, possibly RNC chair, and with that in mind would probably like to discourage nonsensical R-on-R courtroom violence.)

• IL-Sen: The 59-41 Dem edge in the Senate drops to 58-42 for the rest of the lame duck session today, as Rep. Mark Kirk gets sworn in as the newest member. (Illinois, of course, was the only of the special election seats that flipped to the GOP.)

• IN-Sen: This NYT story doesn’t really have any new specifics about Richard Lugar’s upcoming teabagging that you don’t already know, but it has a spectacular quote from former Missouri Sen. John Danforth, another Republican who occupied the same pretty-conservative-but-not-a-jerk-about-it space as Lugar:

If Dick Lugar… having served five terms in the U.S. Senate and being the most respected person in the Senate and the leading authority on foreign policy, is seriously challenged by anybody in the Republican Party, we have gone so far overboard that we are beyond redemption.

• MA-Sen: The Boston Globe takes a look back at Deval Patrick’s reelection town-by-town, and also wonders what it may mean for Scott Brown’s first re-election battle in 2012. Patrick, for instance, won back many of the larger blue-collar (and usually Democratic) communities like Lowell and Quincy that Brown won. The question for 2012, though, is: how much of Brown’s initial success was unique to Brown (more charismatic than your garden-variety blue-blood Republican like Charlie Baker), and, by contrast, how much of that was unique to the turnout model produced by the special election?

• MD-Sen: Republicans may already be settling on a favorite for the Maryland Senate race in 2012, and they’re considering the same strategy as 2006, running an African-American against Ben Cardin. (In ’06, recall, Michael Steele, well, still lost badly, but made the race more competitive than Maryland is used to.) There’s a lot of buzz surrounding Charles Lollar, who just ran against Steny Hoyer in MD-05 and apparently wowed a lot of people on the stump. Of course, he also lost 64-35, but, well, you’ve gotta start somewhere. (Eric Wargotz, who just lost to Barb Mikulski, is also reportedly interested in trying again.)

• MO-Sen: The Beltway seems abuzz about a potential Claire McCaskill/Jim Talent rematch (thanks to McCaskill tweeting about her random airport meet-up with Talent, no doubt), but the missing part of the story seems to be that Talent, if he runs, could be walking right into a juicy establishment/tea party battle. Ex-Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who lost a feisty gubernatorial primary in 2008 and threatened a 2010 primary run against Roy Blunt, has been turning up the volume on a potential run too. Ed Martin, last seen losing narrowly in MO-03, has also become the subject of some speculation. One unlikely run at this point, though, is former Ambassador to Luxembourg (which is code for “very wealthy donor”) Ann Wagner, who has been linked to the Senate race but just announced a bid for RNC chair instead this morning.

• NJ-Sen: When did Bob Menendez’s numbers start to look like Richard Burr’s? A poll from Fairleigh Dickinson (favorables only, no head-to-heads) finds vast indifference about the Garden State’s junior Senator. At least he’s above water, with 31/25 faves, but 29% are unsure and 15% have never heard of him.

• NM-Sen: Jeff Bingaman, assuming he runs again, is already facing his first GOP opponent, although one from the Some Dude end of the spectrum. William English ran (apparently in the GOP primary) for the open NM-02 seat in 2002, although he seems best known for saying controversial things in his local newspaper, perhaps most notably that Barack Obama “literally amounts to an African dictator.”

• TX-Sen: Yet more names are surfacing on the GOP side for possible primary challenges to Kay Bailey Hutchison: today, it’s Houston-area state Sen. Dan Patrick.

• VA-Sen: Corey Stewart is the Prince William County Supervisor and a likely candidate in the GOP Senate primary, if his latest pronouncements are any indication. He’s started firing shots across the bow of presumptive favorite George Allen’s comeback, saying he had a “mediocre” Senate record and that his base has moved on.

• MN-Gov: The recount of the 2.1 million ballots in the Minnesota gubernatorial race officially kicks off today. You probably already know the candidates, but the Star-Tribune today profiles the really key players at this juncture: the lawyers. One of them, interestingly, is Eric Magnuson, who you may remember from the 2008-09 recount as state supreme court chief justice and head of the canvassing board; having left the court, now he’s on Tom Emmer’s team.

• WV-Gov: It’s still not clear when the election will even occur (to set a permanent replacement for Joe Manchin), but acting Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin isn’t going to get a free pass in the Dem primary, facing likely opposition from two of the people most actively involved in establishing when that election will happen. Both SoS Natalie Tennant and state House speaker Rick Thompson are eyeing the race, with Thompson “planning” to run and Tennant “seriously considering.”

• CA-20: Look for a likely rematch in the 20th, which turned into one of the nation’s closest races this year. Andy Vidak “promises” he’ll try again vs. Jim Costa in 2012, although if he couldn’t make it this year, the odds of him getting over the hump in a presidential year model seem even slimmer. (Unless, of course, the boundaries of the 20th get changed by the citizens’ commission, but the VRA is likely to keep compelling a Hispanic-majority Fresno-to-Bakersfield district.)

• CA-45: Further south, Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougnet is another potential rematch. The Democrat already filed for a 2012 campaign, although he says he hasn’t ruled another race in or out and is establishing the committee to settle up some unpaid bills from his 2010 race.

• CT-05: And here’s one more: Justin Bernier, who was initially the GOP’s preferred candidate in the primary in the 5th but got shoved over after Sam Caligiuri dropped down from the Senate race, is saying he’s considering another run in 2012 (motivated in part by the likelihood of an open seat with Chris Murphy’s likely Senate run).

• PA-11: Don’t assume that Corey O’Brien is going to be the Dem nominee in the effort to take back the 11th in 2012, as there’s a long list of possible contenders on the bench in this bluish seat. At the top is Scranton mayor (and, briefly, gubernatorial candidate) Chris Doherty, but other names you might see are Wilkes-Barre mayor Tom Leighton, former Pittston mayor (and Paul Kanjorski crony) Michael Lombardo, state Rep. Eddie Day Pashinski, Wilkes-Barre solicitor William Vinsko, and new state Sen. John Yudichak.

• California: Finally, those of you not living on the West Coast may be unaware that there are parts of the country where the Republicans are the ones in “what did we do wrong?” soul-searching mode. The WaPo looks at the epicenter of that, in California (where they didn’t pick up any House seats, lost all the statewide races, and even lost ground in the state legislature), where local GOPers are flummoxed by the state’s changing demographics.

(General h/t to Brian Valco, bearer of many of today’s links.)

What would you do without the Daily Digests?

MO-Sen: Republican media trackers tell Politico that the DSCC has cancelled $1.3 million worth of ad buys in Kansas City and St. Louis for the final week before the election. The DS tried to push back, saying that “decisions are made on a week-to-week basis,” but as Swingnuts well know, cancelling early reservations now subjects you to forfeiting deposits – and means you have to pay higher rates if you decide to go back in later. In other words, late cancellations are not made lightly.

WV-Sen: John Raese has one simple request. And that is to have sharks with frickin’ laser beams attached to their heads!

NV-Sen: So maybe some of that cash earmarked for Missouri is going to Nevada instead. On the heels of Sharron Angle’s eye-bursting $14 million haul, the DSCC is making its first ad reservations in the Silver State, apparently for a million bucks a week.

GA-Gov: Wow, Nathan Deal really is the epitome of the corrupt scumbag who thinks the purposes of getting elected to public office is to use his position for personal gain. As the AP explains: “While in Congress, Republican Nathan Deal lobbied Georgia’s attorney general and top state environmental officials to allow the development of a landfill that he and his business partner wanted next to their auto salvage yard….” Note that though this involves Deal’s auto salvage business, this is actually a different scandal from the one which inspired him to resign from Congress (there, he had lobbied the state from his perch in the House to preserve a questionable vehicle inspection program from which he profited immensely).

NY-Gov: For the trouble of offering a half-assed, bullshit, “I’m sorry if you were offended” non-apology, Carl Paladino has now lost the backing of the right-wing rabbi, Yehuda Levin, who helped pen the anti-gay speech which got Paladino into such hot water to begin with.

Relatedly, a truly awesome catch by Politico’s Maggie Haberman: She digs waaay deep to link a story at the Orthodox-oriented news blog Voz Iz Neias (Yiddish for “What’s News?”) about Paladino’s flubbed outreach in the Orthodox community. Though it’s getting far less play than his homophobic outburst, Paladino also attacked a bunch of big-time rebbes (Hasidic leaders) for supposedly being suckered into going soft on the libruhl Andrew Cuomo (who had also done the ritual meet-and-greets in Hasidic communities). Several prominent rabbis are now rebuking Paladino for waltzing on to their turf and making such presumptuous accusations against some of their own. So not only did Paladino piss off half the state thanks to this trip, he pissed off the very people he was trying to win over! In a word: fail.

CA-03: There aren’t a whole lot of bright spots these days, but one of them is definitely Dan Lungren. The former state AG managed to win in 2008 against a badly underfunded opponent with less than 50% of the vote, and has been getting his ass kicked in fundraising literally every quarter this cycle by Ami Bera. So with his back against the wall, Karl Rove is coming to the rescue. American Crossroads/Crossroads GPS is launching ads in the district on Friday, but NWOTSOTB as yet.

CA-45: You know I’m a ratfucking fetishist, so of course it warms my heart to hear that Dem Steve Pougnet is doing his best to prop up teabagger Bill Lussenheide. He’s targeting Republicans with robocalls that say Lussenheide is the “true conservative” – but he’s also sending out mailers to the same households describing him as “extreme” and “dangerous” while calling Rep. Mary Bono Mack a “raging liberal.” I imagine the idea is that what’s “extreme” and “dangerous” to normal people is actually appealing to crazies. I also love the fact that Bono Mack’s people whined that this was a “dirty trick” – just shows they are a bunch of weenies who don’t know how to fight.

LA-02: Man, it seems like most pols in Louisiana care about party loyalty as much as the writers of LOST cared about not pissing off their fans after six fucking years of slavishly watching that goddamn… uh, where was I? Oh yeah, state Rep. Juan LaFonta, who got pasted in the Democratic primary by Cedric Richmond, has decided to endorse Republican Rep. Joe Cao for re-election. This does not seem like the winning move to me. (And screw you, J. J. Abrams!)

OH-09: This comment has the flavor of Star Trek nerds debating whether Captain Picard ever wore the Federation dress uniform while on the bridge of the Enterprise D during season 4… only, except, you know, this guy is actually trying to be serious. Rich Iott’s spokesbot pleaded with Politico to understand that no, it was an SS uniform, not a NAZI uniform! I’m sure that will please John Boehner, who, as it turns out, gave $5,000 to Iott last month. Think he wants his Reichsmarks back?

PA-03: Paging Mark Twain… Mark Twain to the white courtesy phone. The AFSCME evidently thinks that rumors of Kathy Dahlkemper’s demise are at least somewhat exaggerated, since they’re dropping $350K on ads on her behalf. Triage is a tricky business.

WI-08: Aaron Blake tweets that the DCCC is “pulling out” of the 8th CD, but as is often the case, the picture is more nuanced. First off, AFSCME just dropped $750K here (to which Blake alludes). Secondly, Kagen is personally wealthy. In fact, in 2008, he was the 28th-richest member of the House, with a net worth of anywhere between $7 and $20 million. Hopefully his investments haven’t taken too bad of hit the last couple of years and he can still afford to spend large (he gave his campaign almost $900K last cycle).

SSP TV:

• GA-08: Jim Marshall’s anti-Pelosi ad actually has hippies in it – for reals
• NY-20: Fuck yes – Scott Murphy’s latest lacerates Chris Gibson for supporting repeal of the healthcare reform bill. Murphy, like Earl Pomeroy, knows the only way to win is to go loud and proud
• TN-04: Lincoln Davis lacerates Scott DesJarlais for reportedly threatening his ex-wife with a gun – and threatening to kill himself. Stories like this were a big reason why Don Sherwood and Randy Kuhl both lost
• ID-01: On behalf of Walt Minnick, the mother of a woman murdered by her abuser hits Raul Labrador for his failure to support laws that would protect women in abusive relationships
• MA-06: Republican Bill Hudak hits Rep. John Tierney on a story we’ve been somewhat remiss in covering here: namely, his wife’s recent guilty plea for tax fraud. By referring to “Tierney’s family,” the ad makes it sound like Tierney himself was involved, but Hudak gets away with this legerdemain because the wife’s brother (family by marriage, I suppose) was also involved. The ad is only running on cable (Hudak had less than $100K on hand at the end of August)

Independent Expenditures:

• America’s Families First Action Fund: Sounds like a GOP group, but it’s actually Dem to the bone: $80K against David Schweikert (AZ-05); $403K against David Rivera (FL-25); $94K on mail against Bob Dold! (FL-25); $200K against Randy Hultgren (IL-14)
• EMILY: $520K against Tom Ganley (OH-13); $212K against Cory Gardner (CO-04); $20K against Frank Guinta (NH-01)
• NEA: $1.4 million against Ken Buck (CO-Sen); $306K against Harold Johnson (NC-08)
• Realtors: $450K for Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
• SEIU: $100K on radio ads for Cedric Richmond (LA-02); smaller amounts in MI-07 & IL-17
• VoteVets: $325K cable buy against Pat Toomey (PA-Sen); $31K buy against Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08); $296K for Harry Reid (NV-Sen)

KY-Sen: Jack Conway has succeeded in getting a false and misleading ad by the “First Amendment Alliance” pulled off at least one television station, Louisville’s Fox 41.

WI-Sen: On the other side of the equation, Russ Feingold is being forced by the NFL to alter an ad which featured some footage of embarrassing end zone victory dances, including Randy Moss taunting Green Bay Packer fans. Could this really have been a mindless goof by Feingold’s media team? The Hotline’s Tim Alberta had the same thought I did: This sure was a good way to get plenty of free media coverage for this ad. (Judging by the number of Twitter mentions, at least, this ploy worked – if it was indeed the plan.)

AZ-08: The Smart Media Group is reporting that the DCCC has cancelled all of their ad buys in Tucson except for the final week of October. I suppose there are three ways you can interpret this news. The first is that Gabby Giffords is cruising and doesn’t need much help. The second I’ll call “panzers reconsolidating”: She’s basically doomed. And the third lies between the two: The D-Trip is performing triage, figuring that Giffords is strong enough to have a chance on her own, while other more fragile campaigns are in greater need of help. Choose your own adventure!

NY-24: Mike Arcuri is a lucky man. As you may recall, he created a new third party just so that he could have an extra ballot line to run on (and perhaps draw in a few votes from people who like him personally but can’t stomach the thought of pulling the lever for a Democrat). The problem: He called it the “New York Moderates” party, but state law forbids any party name from including the words “American,” ‘United States,” “National,” “New York State,” “Empire State,” or any abbreviation of those. Fortunately, a court ruled that he was able to retain the line by renaming it just the “Moderates” party.

Fundraising:

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan: $2.1 million raised, “on par with” Roy Blunt
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D): $3.2 million raised, Pat Toomey (R): $3.8 million raised
• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D): $361K raised from 9/16-29, Dan Maes (R): $28K raised, Tom Tancredo (ACP): $149K
• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D): $1.6 million raised from 9/3-10/4
• OH-15: Steve Stivers (R): $757K raised, Mary Jo Kilroy (D): $603K raised

Independent Expenditures:

• CT-Sen: Sources tell Aaron Blake that the DSCC has added $1.2 million to its buy here
• OH-01: The Campaign for Working Families throws down $125K for ads to help Steve Chabot (R)
• OR-05: CULAC the PAC chips in $34K for mail on behalf of Rep. Kurt Schrader (D)

SSP TV:

• NV-Sen: Harry Reid’s latest is actually half-positive/half-negative, and concludes by calling Sharron Angle “a foreign worker’s best friend”; Angle’s newest is a race-baity spot that – jeez – features footage of scary brown people sneaking through a fence (wish I were kidding)
• PA-Sen: The DSCC also has an ad out that’s fairly race-baity, talking about Pat Toomey’s support for sending jobs to China – complete with Asian-style gong noises that were embarrassing even when John Hughes brought us Long Duk Dong more than a quarter-century ago
• GA-Gov: In a reversal of the usual roles, Republican Nathan Deal paints himself as the friend of teachers (and education in general) in his first attack ad
• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo continues to sound like an anodyne Republican in his ads (cut wasteful government, blah blah), and says that Carl Paladino’s “anger is not a governing strategy”
• AL-05: Steve Raby goes back to his mailbox to criticize Mo Brooks for being a DC tool (and then litters)
• CA-45: In this Steve Pougnet ad, little kids singing bowdlerized versions of the “Miss Mary Mack” (Mary Bono Mack, get it?) schoolyard rhyme are annoying
• CO-07: In an ad with weak production values, Ryan Frazier attacks Ed Perlmutter for supporting the stimulus and cap-and-trade
• FL-12: Dennis Ross recites some conservative pabulum
• FL-25: In a minute-long spot, Joe Garcia uses news coverage to revisit the David Rivera ramming-a-delivery-truck-carrying-his-opponents-flyers incident
• ID-01: Walt Minnick can’t resist hitting the illegal immigration theme again – and he, too, features footage of Hispanic-looking people. Just uck
• MN-06: A Tarryl Clark ad with really low production values stands out only because the otherwise serious-sounding female announcer declares: “Michele Bachmann: Not doing [bleep] for the people of the sixth district” (yes, there’s an actual bleep sound) [UPDATE: Gah, it’s just a fucking web ad.]
• NC-02: Bob Etheridge hits one of my favorite attack ad topics: Renee Ellmers’ support of a 23% national sales tax
• NV-03: As she did in her last ad, Dina Titus compares Joe Heck to Sharron Angle, this time attacking his record on education
• NY-13: Big fucking surprise: Despite voting against healthcare reform, Mike McMahon is getting attacked on it anyway – for not supporting repeal, and for just generally siding with Pelosi & Obama. Will Democrats never learn? Don’t answer that
• NY-20: Chris Gibson attacks Scott Murphy for supporting the stimulus. Man, it was a damn long time ago, but remember how much traction Murphy got last year by attacking Jim Tedisco (lol) for opposing the stimulus? (Not surprised to see the ad in that link has since been removed)
• OH-18: Oh man. Clearly polls must be showing Dems that attacks on Republicans for wanting to send jobs overseas must be especially potent, ’cause here’s another one, from Zack Space. No gong in this one, though – instead, he features a prototypical Chinese dragon, and then even has the announcer say a mock “thank you” in Chinese! I really can’t wait for this election to be over

AK-Sen: The NRSC is coughing up money for Joe Miller; they just cut him a $42,600 check and say they’ll be spending $170,000 in coordinated expenditures on his behalf, which CQ reports represents “the maximum allowed under the law”. I’m not sure how that’s possible, though, as the FEC has a $87,000 limit on coordinated party expenditures for Senate races in Alaska. What I do know is that Democrat Scott McAdams is already making the GOP sweat (although, Joe Miller’s balls-out insanity may have a little something to do with that). You see that thermometer on the top right corner of this page? You know what you have to do.

FL-Sen: Libertarian Alex Snitker has popped up to remind the world that he’s actually in this race… by announcing that he won’t be dropping out of the race, despite pressure in the form of “numerous e-mails and Facebook messages” from Republicans urging him to get out of Marco Rubio’s way.

NC-Sen: Normally, I’d bunch this bullet down in the ad section, but Richard Burr’s latest spot deserves some special attention. The ad, entitled “Front Porch”, resurrects the highly-acclaimed “rocking chair” actors employed by the DSCC in their extremely effective ads against Elizabeth Dole in 2008. Only this time, they’re singing Richard Burr’s praises and railing against the national debt. At least, I think those are the same actors; if not, they’re dead ringers for the originals. (To see what I mean, click here.) I’ve gotta say – pretty damned clever move on Burr’s part.

WA-Sen: The DSCC has reserved $2 million worth of ad time to help protect Patty Murray against Dino Rossi. The DSCC’s ads will begin on October 5th.

CO-Gov: Democrat John Hickenlooper doubled up on American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo in August fundraising, bringing in just over $400K to Tancredo’s $200K. Tancredo, in turn, quadrupled up on Republican flag-bearer Dan Maes, who raised $50K, nearly half of which was spent on legal fees and campaign finance penalties. Meanwhile, downballot Republicans are doing their best to rally around Tancredo, the only guy with the money and semblance of cred to run a real campaign. More than 20 elected GOPers in Colorado came out in support of Tanc. RGA chair Haley Barbour sounds about ready to throw in the towel, though.

AZ-01, AZ-05: Here’s a pair of fresh GOP internal polls from Arizona for your consumption: In AZ-01, rogue dentist Paul Gosar is tied with Dem Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick at 43-43 in a Moore Information poll conducted at the end of August. In AZ-05, National Research, Inc. has David Schweikert up on Dem Harry Mitchell by 46-38.

FL-02: Blue Dog Allen Boyd rolled out the endorsement of the Chamber of Commerce yesterday.

KS-04: By all indications, Republicans are set to have a very good year at the polls, but they would be foolish to consider a race like the open seat battle to replace Todd Tiahrt in the bag. Not only has Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle been fundraising strongly and polling competitively in this GOP-friendly district against dickbag Republican Mike Pompeo, it looks like there’s a very real chance that there could be some serious vote-splitting on the right. Mega-wealthy businessman Wink Hartman, who lost to Pompeo in the Republican primary, is interested in running as a Libertarian, and Kansas Libertarian Party Chairman Andrew Gray said the chances of that happening are “very favorable”. Hartman, who spent over $1.5 million on Republican campaign, had a phone interview with the Libertarians on Tuesday, and they apparently loved what they had to hear. Hartman would be taking the place of David Moffett on the Libertarian ballot, who pulled his name last week after citing personal health reasons. Republicans, of course, are crying foul, but the KS SoS has already denied one objection to the withdrawal.

D-bags: Add NRCC tool Andy Sere to the list. Just click the link.

SSP TV:

DE-Sen: Chris Coons is out with his first ad, a spot touting his record as New Castle County Executive. NWOTSOTB, but it’s a statewide cable buy that the campaign decided to roll out earlier than planned in order to take advantage of the cat fud fight between Christine O’Donnell and Mike Castle.

AR-01: Chad Causey’s first ad of the general election is a spot that’s mostly biographical, but one that ends with a left hook on Republican Rick Crawford for his support for the bad kind of SSP.

AZ-08: Gabrielle Giffords is out with a solid hit on tea-flavored douchebag Jesse Kelly, hitting him with his own words on his plan to “privatize” and “phase out” Social Security, which, along with Medicare, are apparently the “biggest Ponzi schemes in history”. Hey, Jesse: thank you for being a moron.

CA-45: Mary Bono Mack’s first ad touts her efforts to support the “magic” of the doctor-patient relationship. Or something.

IL-11: Republican Adam Kinzinger is up with his first ad, an autobiographical piece which touts his Air Force service and his intervention in a knife attack on a woman back home.

IL-17: Phil Hare is out with his first ad in four years, hitting Republican Bobby Schilling on his support of “a bad trade deal with Korea”.

IN-02: GOPer Jackie Walorski has the right issue (the economy), but the wrong remedy (trickle down nonsense).

IN-08: Republican Larry Buschon’s first spot hits Democrats on, you guessed it, spending – and also on the curious notion that food grows in grocery stores.

MD-01: Frank Kratovil Reads The Bills. (The ad will run “on broadcast stations in the Baltimore and Salisbury markets”.)

MI-09: Gary Peters flips the bird to Wall Street.

NE-02: Dem Tom White hits Lee Terry on the national debt, citing his vote for TARP.

NJ-12: Rush Holt’s first ad is half-negative, hitting hedge fund kingpin Scott Sipprelle for his supply-side economics, and half-positive, touting Holt’s support of the middle class.

TN-08: Dem Roy Herron comes out against drug dealers, predatory lenders, and Wall Street. This one seems like it could use more of an emotional punch, though.

SSP IE Tracker:

Longtime fans of SSP will remember the House Independent Expenditure tracker that we updated on a regular basis two years ago. As much as I’d like to resurrect that project this year, the time constraints of law school prevent me from investing that kind of time. However, we’ll still try to keep you in the loop on noteworthy independent expenditure reports here in the Daily Digest.

NH-Sen: CULAC the PAC files a $66K radio ad buy on behalf of conservative Republican Ovide Lamontagne

IN-02: The NRCC files $95K in ads and polls against Joe Donnelly

MA-09: The SEIU is spending $190K on phonebanks and radio ads in support of Mac D’Alessandro in his primary fight against Stephen Lynch

MI-01: The DCCC buys $48K in ads against Dan Benishek

WI-07: The DCCC has re-upped their ad buy against Sean Duffy by another $50K.

AK-Sen: On the topic of Lisa Murkowski’s declaration that she’s “still in this game” and her outreach efforts to a polite but seemingly unenthused Alaska Libertarian Party, The Mudflats sums up the situation pretty well:

   * She’s not technically in the race right now

   * She’s not out of the race

   * She’s not a quitter

   * She is who she is

   * She will likely not run as a Libertarian

   * She will likely not run as a write-in

   * She doesn’t know what she’s doing

NH-Sen: Businessman Bill Binnie is throwing down another $500K of his own money, with the GOP primary just a week in the way. Though ex-AG Kelly Ayotte leads in what little polling there’s been, I think this race is still up for grabs.

NV-Sen: The LVRJ has a detailed profile on Sharron Angle’s tumultuous years in the state Assembly, where votes in the 42-member body were often “41 to Angle.”

CO-Gov: Some Colorado Republicans are suing to try to knock Tom Tancredo off the ballot, saying his candidacy violates the American Constitution Party’s bylaws. Even if they’re right, I wonder if they have standing.

FL-08: Alan Grayson claims he raised half a million bucks in August, and says he has more than a million on hand, despite prepaying for a bunch of television advertising.

FL-24: GOPer Sandy Adams (and the NRCC, apparently) are touting a Public Opinion Strategies internal which has her leading Rep. Suzanne Kosmas 49-37.

HI-01: Colleen Hanabusa outraised Rep. Charles Djou in the pre-primary fundraising period, $330K to $206K. But Djou has slightly more cash on hand, $428K to $404K.

NY-14: Some Democrat she is. When asked by a reporter if she would vote for her opponent – not even endorse, just vote – in the general if she lost the primary, Reshma Saujani said she “didn’t know” whether she would pull the lever for Rep. Carolyn Maloney. I’ve been adamantly opposed to Saujani’s candidacy since I first learned about her, and with good reason. But this may be the most disgusting thing she’s said so far. How can I possibly trust the Democratic bona fides of someone who can’t even say if she’ll vote Democrat in her own district? And no, her campaign’s belated attempt to claim she’ll “vote a straight ticket” does not assuage me in the least. When the cameras were rolling and the pressure was on, Saujani admitted she wasn’t a team player. We don’t need people like her in Congress.

Turnout (PDF): According to data compiled by the Center for the Study of the American Electorate, the “average percentage of eligible citizens who voted in the primaries of each major political party” shows more a greater share of Republicans voting in primaries this year than Dems for the first time since 1930. Of course, 1930 was a pretty good year for Dems… but the trendlines are not inspiring.

SSP TV:

GA-Sen: GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson, not a guy you traditionally think of as being endangered (if you’ve ever even heard of him) touts his conservative record

NH-Sen: Paul Hodes compares Washington to… a hot dog eating contest

NV-Sen: Harry Reid continues to produce some of the best negative ads of the cycle

OH-Sen: We mentioned this ad in yesterday’s digest, wherein Lee Fisher sez: “Congressman Rob Portman knows how to grow the economy… in China!” Our update is that a GOPer says the buy is for $1.4 million and that the ad is running in Columbus and northern OH

FL-Gov: Alex Sink responds to Rick Scott’s attack ads, which she says are all about Obama, not Florida

CA-11: Jerry McNerney’s first ad, touting his support for veterans’ causes (I like that he has an actual veteran do the talking – much better than the usual candidate bragging or hackneyed voiceover)

CA-45: Dem Steve Pougnet is on the air with his first ad, kicking off a reported $100K/week TV & radio ad blitz from now through election day

CO-04: Betsy Markey has an anti-spending spot

NM-01: Republican Jon Barela has an ad complaining about the debt

NM-02: Harry Teague is up with his first ad of the cycle, a surprisingly authentic 60-second spot that’s worth watching

NM-02: Meanwhile, Americans for Job Security hits Teague over his vote for cap-and-trade (a “one-week” buy)

NY-02: If Steve Israel is worried enough to go up on the air….

VA-02: Glenn Nye touts his work to keep an aircraft carrier at Hampton Roads

• CT-Sen: Where’s the New York Times when you need them? At least we have the Post to go there: way back when she was applying for an appointed seat on Connecticut’s Board of Education, one of Linda McMahon’s selling points was that she had a degree in education. Nope, it quickly was revealed that her degree was in Freedom French (which, to my mind, is a lot harder to parse away through semantic obfuscation than “in Vietnam” — I mean, this is just a flat-out lie). Jodi Rell still picked McMahon for the board.

• IL-Sen: Where’s the New York Times when you need them, Part II? Mark Kirk has had to admit that previous claims about his military experience weren’t “precise,” when it turned out that the “Naval Intelligence Officer of the Year” award went to Kirk’s entire unit, not himself as stated on his website’s bio.

• TX-Sen: Remember when gubernatorial candidate Kay Bailey Hutchison promised to resign her Senate seat as soon as she tied up those last few legislative loose ends? After dragging that out to finish her term instead, now she’s making noises about just continuing on like nothing ever happened and running for another full term in 2012. Questions remain as to whether she’d attract high-profile primary competition if she stayed; would-be competitors would have to be heartened by her weak performance in the gubernatorial primary.

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman pretty much ended her viability as a candidate in the general election with her closing argument ad for the GOP primary, where she demands border crackdowns and opposes “amnesty.” (In fact, check out the photo at Politico’s link; one picture says more than 1000 words could about Pete Wilson handing the Prop 187 turd torch to Whitman. UPDATE: Oops, photo not there anymore, but see here.) To make sure the message gets across to those least likely to be enthused about that, the California Nurses Association is running a Spanish-language ad on Hispanic radio stations that replays her comments.

• MI-Gov: This endorsement isn’t exactly a surprise, seeing as how Andy Dillon is widely disliked by Michigan’s public employee unions, but still it’s an important building block for Virg Bernero. The Michigan Education Association, the state’s largest teacher’s union with 155K members, gave its nod to Lansing mayor Bernero in the Democratic gubernatorial primary; Bernero also has the endorsement of the AFL-CIO, which includes the UAW.

• NY-Gov: Has anyone ever had to confirm to the media that “no, I’m not dropping out,” and then actually gone on to win a race? Steve Levy seems intent on being the first to try to do that. With the mellifluously-named M. Myers Mermel on the verge of getting the backing of the Queens GOP, the GOP/Conservative field is basically collapsing into chaos in the wake of the infighting at the Conservative Party convention, where Levy and Carl Paladino backers forced a placeholder (Ralph Lorigo) onto the Con primary ballot in hopes that Rick Lazio doesn’t win the GOP convention. Paladino’s camp is even talking up the possibility of creating a whole different “Tea Party” ballot line. There’s now also talk of creating a new ballot line out of whole cloth coming from state GOP chair Ed Cox of all places, as a means of helping the GOP’s preferred candidates circumvent the Conservative Party’s preferences.

• SD-Gov: Polling the fast-approaching (June 8) GOP gubernatorial primary in South Dakota has, oddly enough, not been a high priority for any pollsters, so money may be our main guide here. Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard is the clear winner by that criteria, having raised $1.65 mil over the cycle, more than double the $700K of next-best state Sen. majority leader Dave Knudsen. Interestingly, though, South Dakota is the only non-southern state to use runoffs, and with three other candidates in the running, those two may find themselves facing off again in late June.

• WY-Gov: Our long national nightmare is over: we have a credible Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Wyoming. State party chair Leslie Petersen took one for the team and filed the paperwork to run in the Democratic primary on Aug. 17. The Natrona Co. party chair, R.C. Johnson, had said she’d run if no one else did, so I suppose the state chair running when no one else did is, uh, something of an upgrade from a county chair. The Jackson-based, 69-year-old Petersen (assuming she gets past the several Some Dudes in the Dem primary) will face one of not one but four strong GOPers in November.

• CA-45: Rep. Mary Bono Mack and her opponent, Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougnet, are on the same stage today to celebrate the new Palm Springs Airport control tower. Both were proponents of the construction project and will no doubt try to claim their share of the credit, although Bono Mack has the slight problem of having voted against the stimulus package that paid more than half the costs of the project.

• PA-12: Turnout numbers seem to contradict the GOP’s excuses about how they would have won the special election in the 12th if they hadn’t gotten swamped by a surge in Dem turnout motivated by the Sestak/Specter primary. Turnout in the 12th for the special election was 135K, compared with 203K in the 12th in the 2006 general election.

• WA-03: Here’s a surprise: state Sen. Craig Pridemore, who’d been carrying the liberal flag in the Democratic primary in the open seat race in the 3rd, is prepared to drop out. Pridemore had been lagging on the financial front compared with self-funding establishment choice Denny Heck (who now has the Dem field to himself), but that hadn’t been a deterrent before and it seems like that wasn’t what spurred the dropout. Instead, it was leaked over the weekend that the Washington Education Association was prepared to back Heck, and without the state’s biggest union on his side, Pridemore didn’t have much a route to getting over the top.

• WI-07: It looks like the careful field-clearing for state Sen. Julie Lassa in the Democratic primary in the open seat in the 7th wasn’t entirely successful. She’ll still have to face Joe Reasbeck in the Dem primary. Reasbeck, an author and consultant who doesn’t seem to have held office, seems to be at the Some Dude end of the spectrum, though. He’s announcing his campaign kickoff with a ganja break at Superior’s Richard Bong Museum.

• New Hampshire: SSPers will no doubt enjoy this… a Blue Hampshire blogger has calculated 2004/2008 PVI for each of New Hampshire’s 299 voting wards, not only putting together tables but also a slick map.

• Polltopia: PPP’s latest nugget unearthed from their crosstabs is that Democrats are still holding onto moderates pretty well, contrary to what conventional wisdom has been asserting. Tom Jensen finds that Dems are leading among self-identified moderates in all the key Senate race around the country. (The problem, of course, is that there are more self-identified conservatives than liberals, which accounts for GOP leads in a number of these races.)

• History: Here’s a very interesting bit of history from Arkansas writer John Brummett, looking at the remarkable parallels between the Blanche Lincoln/Bill Halter race, and the long-forgotten 1972 Democratic primary in Arkansas where upstart David Pryor almost knocked off long-serving conservative Democrat John McClellan.

While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends. I also added state legislative seats that are open this year in which the incumbent is not term-limited.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
CA-03	Dan Lungren	38.41%	39.15%	R+0.74	O+0.5
CA-24	Elton Gallegly	35.72%	41.46%	R+5.74	O+2.8
CA-25	Buck McKeon	37.39%	39.42%	R+2.03	O+1.1
CA-26	David Dreier	35.55%	40.13%	R+4.58	O+4.0
CA-44	Ken Calvert	34.33%	42.75%	R+8.42	O+0.9
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	37.76%	41.55%	R+3.79	O+4.6
CA-48	John Campbell	29.25%	44.44%	R+15.19	O+0.7
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	31.49%	40.23%	R+8.74	O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/14 Republicans/1 Vacant, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3. Incumbents running for reelection are italicized.

SENATE

Republicans (6)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	32.57%	43.77%	R+12.20	M+11.8
SD-12	Jeff Denham	49.85%	31.47%	D+18.38	O+17.6
SD-14	Dave Cogdill	34.06%	46.91%	R+12.85	M+13.2
SD-15	Vacant	40.78%	34.50%	D+6.28	O+20.3
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.63%	47.31%	R+15.68	M+23.1
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	29.03%	45.81%	R+16.78	M+14.2

Democrats (6)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-02	Pat Wiggins	49.76%	24.40%	D+15.36	O+39.9
SD-16	Dean Florez	50.63%	31.84%	D+18.79	O+19.5
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.58%	14.61%	D+43.97	O+58.7
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.17%	21.13%	D+32.04	O+41.3
SD-34	Lou Correa	44.25%	32.73%	D+11.52	O+16.8
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.63%	28.91%	D+17.72	O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (19)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.34%	39.78%	R+5.44	M+1.6
AD-05	Roger Niello	38.81%	38.30%	D+0.51	O+4.2
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	37.51%	41.42%	R+3.91	M+7.9
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.71%	38.57%	D+4.14	O+4.4
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	45.87%	36.18%	D+9.69	O+3.9
AD-32	Jean Fuller	31.06%	48.95%	R+17.89	M+26.7
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.70%	40.74%	R+5.04	O+1.4
AD-36	Steve Knight	38.95%	39.07%	R+0.12	O+0.8
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.81%	40.97%	R+5.16	O+3.7
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.77%	39.51%	R+2.74	O+4.9
AD-59	Anthony Adams	34.63%	42.93%	R+8.30	M+4.8
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.87%	40.10%	R+2.23	O+4.1
AD-64	Brian Nestande	35.68%	42.24%	R+5.56	O+1.8
AD-65	Paul Cook	36.62%	41.44%	R+4.82	M+4.1
AD-68	Van Tran	32.67%	40.91%	R+8.24	M+2.9
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.02%	42.99%	R+12.97	O+3.9
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.98%	41.60%	R+10.62	O+2.2
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.87%	39.84%	R+8.97	O+4.1
AD-77	Joel Anderson	30.92%	43.75%	R+12.83	M+13.0

Democrats (19)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.75%	23.42%	D+29.33	O+43.3
AD-09	Dave Jones	55.94%	19.80%	D+36.14	O+49.0
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.97%	39.03%	D+0.94	O+4.0
AD-11	Tom Torlakson	53.91%	21.78%	D+32.13	O+41.2
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.65%	35.65%	D+5.00	O+16.9
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.63%	19.89%	D+28.74	O+42.3
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.55%	26.25%	D+21.30	O+45.8
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.34%	18.69%	D+32.65	O+44.4
AD-28	Anna Caballero	55.39%	23.31%	D+32.08	O+38.3
AD-31	Juan Arambula	50.88%	32.08%	D+18.80	O+26.1
AD-35	Pedro Nava	47.79%	27.96%	D+19.83	O+35.6
AD-45	Kevin de León	58.83%	12.84%	D+45.99	O+63.6
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.73%	11.20%	D+53.53	O+71.9
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.48%	16.40%	D+45.08	O+55.9
AD-57	Ed Hernandez	51.14%	25.19%	D+25.95	O+34.4
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	42.24%	26.81%	D+15.43	O+34.4
AD-78	Martin Block	43.52%	30.78%	D+12.74	O+21.8
AD-79	Mary Salas	48.47%	23.91%	D+24.56	O+31.6
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.41%	35.39%	D+10.02	O+20.7

With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

Breaking news: We now have a registration advantage in Assembly District 5 and are closing in on CA-03!

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
CA-03	Dan Lungren	38.46%	39.04%	R+0.58	O+0.5
CA-24	Elton Gallegly	35.78%	41.53%	R+5.75	O+2.8
CA-25	Buck McKeon	37.42%	39.58%	R+2.16	O+1.1
CA-26	David Dreier	35.64%	40.15%	R+4.51	O+4.0
CA-44	Ken Calvert	34.67%	42.47%	R+7.80	O+0.9
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	38.02%	41.50%	R+3.48	O+4.6
CA-48	John Campbell	29.36%	44.36%	R+15.00	O+0.7
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	31.33%	39.91%	R+8.58	O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	32.78%	43.83%	R+11.05	M+11.8
SD-12	Jeff Denham	49.13%	32.03%	D+17.10	O+17.6
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.76%	47.36%	R+15.60	M+23.1
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.97%	45.60%	R+16.63	M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	50.41%	32.00%	D+18.41	O+19.5
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.91%	14.39%	D+43.52	O+58.7
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.53%	20.72%	D+32.81	O+41.3
SD-34	Lou Correa	44.22%	32.49%	D+11.73	O+16.8
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.47%	28.84%	D+17.63	O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.52%	39.91%	R+5.39	M+1.6
AD-05	Roger Niello	38.97%	38.05%	D+0.92	O+4.2
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	37.35%	41.70%	R+4.35	M+7.9
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.35%	38.88%	D+3.47	O+4.4
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.12%	36.12%	D+10.00	O+3.9
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.89%	40.47%	R+4.58	O+1.4
AD-36	Steve Knight	38.92%	39.29%	R+0.37	O+0.8
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.87%	41.04%	R+5.17	O+3.7
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.83%	39.62%	R+2.79	O+4.9
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.96%	40.01%	R+2.05	O+4.1
AD-64	Brian Nestande	36.08%	41.95%	R+5.87	O+1.8
AD-65	Paul Cook	36.91%	41.29%	R+4.38	M+4.1
AD-68	Van Tran	32.78%	40.78%	R+8.00	M+2.9
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.12%	42.93%	R+12.81	O+3.9
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.88%	41.17%	R+10.29	O+2.2
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.64%	39.58%	R+8.94	O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.94%	23.47%	D+29.47	O+43.3
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.92%	18.55%	D+38.37	O+49.0
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.41%	39.18%	D+0.23	O+4.0
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.65%	35.70%	D+4.95	O+16.9
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.74%	19.90%	D+28.84	O+42.3
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.61%	26.40%	D+21.21	O+45.8
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.59%	18.60%	D+32.99	O+44.4
AD-31	Juan Arambula	50.40%	32.35%	D+18.05	O+26.1
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.03%	27.56%	D+20.47	O+35.6
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.89%	11.14%	D+53.75	O+71.9
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.99%	15.82%	D+46.17	O+55.9
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.94%	26.52%	D+15.42	O+34.4
AD-78	Martin Block	42.97%	30.97%	D+12.00	O+21.8
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.74%	35.25%	D+10.49	O+20.7

I think it’s safe to say that the days of six rounds of Red to Blue waves are well behind us. The DCCC has just launched their first slate of Red to Blue candidates for the cycle. The lucky 13:

Of course, the DCCC is cheating a bit here by including a pair of Dem-held open seats (TN-08 and PA-07), but I suppose they didn’t feel the need to create a separate program called “Keeping Blue Blue” or somesuch. This is a bit of a dog’s breakfast, but it’s no secret that offense is not exactly a priority for Team Blue this year. Some will probably question the placement of Lori Edwards, who only managed to raise $35,000 in the 4th quarter. (Even Charlie Justice found a way to raise more than that!) I suppose that’s just a sign of the times.

Still, the most striking thing to me is the realization that, beyond this list, it’s hard to think of too many other potential Red to Blue targets that could constitute a second wave of the program. Beyond the winner of the PA-06, MN-06 and LA-02 primaries, and probably John Hulburd (AZ-03), I’m drawing a bit of a blank.

Whilst the Massachusetts Senate Special and a series of dodgy house polls have Democrats convinced that the November midterms will be apocalyptic; the fact is that a number of Republican held House districts are in fact vulnerable to a takeover from Democratic challengers.

How many?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

***This diary should be read in conjunction with the diary by Silver Spring***

There are 5 groups of races that are or might become or potentially should be competitive in November. They include Obama Republican districts, districts with very good candidates and districts of a Republican PVI of R+4 and less.

The first ten races below are ranked in order of probability of takeover. These races WILL be competitive in November.

1. DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,

Stick a fork in this one it is done.

With Castle running for the Senate does anyone really think there is a Republican in Delaware who can hold this district for the GOP? Especially as the Democratic Party currently leads in voter reg – 288,380 to 180,620.

With Carney sitting on a 100/1 Cash on hand advantage as at the end of December and the only poll available showing Carney with a 23 point lead this 62% Obama district is certain to end up in the Democratic column in November.

2. LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,

Incumbent GOP Rep Anh Cao has one thing and one thing alone going for him – a Cash on Hand advantage of $91K as at the end of December – $316K-$225K.

Every other indicator tells us that presumptive Democratic nominee State Rep Cedric Richmond will steamroll his way through this race in November.

After all Obama got no less than 75% of the vote in this D+25 district. Also there are 237,103 registered Democrats and only 39,753 registered Republicans. And lastly of course, we can all remember how Cao only won in 2008 courtesy of an awfully corrupt Democratic incumbent – Bill Jefferson.

Cao is toast.

3. IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,

With Republican Dold and Democrat Seals emerging from competitive primaries this open District race is definitely on the radar for 2010.

Dold leads in COH $198K/$145K (as at 13th January) but Seals has the rolodex to crank up the fundraising on his 3rd attempt at the district, particularly if supporters of his vanquished primary opponent – Julie Hamos – circle the wagons and pitch in (she did raise over $1 mill). To this point Seals has outraised Dold too.

Seals will win here for two interlinked reasons:

1) Obama got 61% of the vote here in 2008.

2) Dold is just not moderate enough to attract crossover votes the way Mark Kirk did.

– I should note I volunteered for Seals in 2008 and am ridiculously biased.

4. PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,

With Gerlach back in the race (but flat broke (and his aborted Gubernatorial race was flat broke too at the end) this one will be the focus of much attention.

Presumptive nominee Doug Pike has more than $1 Mill COH as at 31st December, although it is largely self funded. BTW at this stage in 2008 Gerlach had raised almost $1.5 mill and still almost lost 52%/48% over a 2nd tier candidate.

This D+4, 58% Obama district (that also voted for Kerry like all of my top 6 races) is at worst a 50/50 pick up chance.

5. PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,

For the first time Dent has a serious top tier opponent. Having dispatched a serious of 2nd tier candidates Dent is in for the race of his life in 2010. Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan seems to be the real deal. As well as already being a public official Callahan has in the last quarter outraised Dent and they are basically equal in  

COH.

Dent must be worried as his campaign released a very dodgy internal poll showing him leading 58%/27% but refused to release the internals to go with it (a sure sign of bodgy polling)as is the claimed Obama approval rating of 41% compared to a Pennsylvania wide 57% (According to Gallup). Obama won this district in 2008 56%/43%.

Callahan has a shot here. Either way it will be competitive.

6. WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,

Washingtons’ 8th congressional district is one of a handful that are on the perennial target list for Democrats that we didn’t win in 2006 or 2008. Will 2010 be the year? Yeh quite possibly.

Obama carried this one 56%/42% in 2008 whilst Reichert was held to 52.78% by Darcy Burner.

So far so good.

As at the end of December Democrat Delbene led the COH race $773,327/$477,149 and had raised to that point $1,047,873 to Reicherts’$985,665. Whilst almost half of Delbenes’ total came from a loan from herself to the campaign she has shown herself to be adept at fundraising from others. Yep we have a self funder who can also fundraise.

Watch this one on election night – very closely.  

7. CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,

Well whoever would have thunk it; CA-03 as a competitive race!

Democrat Amri has just come off a $249K fundraising quarter and has more COH than  Republican Lungren ($739K/$526K), who only raised $138K. At this point in the cycle Amri has outraised Lungren as well ($871K/$732K).

Add to this the facts that Obama won the district 49.3%/48.8%, Lungren only won in 2008 by 49.49%/43.93% and the voter registration advantage for the GOP has decreased from 6.6% in 2006 to near parity (38.46%/39.04%)as of the start of 2010 and we have a race on our hands.

This one will be very interesting come November.

8. NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,

Yep hard to believe that a congressional district in Nebraska could be competitive but the 2nd shall be so. Remember that Obama carried this Omaha based district 50%/49% and the makings are there for a good race. State Senator Tom White is quite an adept fundraiser for a challenger too. After a 180K December quarter he has $343K COH compared to incumbent Republican Terry’s $543K COH. Given that challengers rarely lead the COH chase this one is set for a great race in November.

9. SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,

SC-02 will be know as the 2010 Moneybomb District! Why? because at the end of December incumbent Republican Joe “you lie” Wilson and his Democratic challenger Robert Miller have raised a breathtaking $5.5 Million between them. Wilson has $2,341,915 COH and Miller has $1,678,436 COH! To be honest Millers’ COH should by itself make this one competive.

However when you consider that Wilson was held to 53.74% in 2008 and that whilst McCain won easily 54%/45%, that is only 1% better than the neighbouring 5th, held by Democrat John Spratt and you have a barn burner in the making.

This race will be fascinating on election night – no doubt about it!

10. KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,

Despite its’ heavily Republican nature (McCain won here 58%/40%) this race will be competitive in November – absolutely.

Democrat Goyle is fundraising up a storm having raised $656K as at the end of December. His closest rival – Republican Pompeo – has only raised $429K. Last quarter Goyle managed a staggering (for a Kansas Democrat) $253K for the quarter and currently has $583K COH; a fair effort to say the least. Pompeo meanwhile managed only $78K for a COH total of $318K. Republican Kelsey FWIW, despite an impressive 233K quarter, has only $40K COH!

Love to see a poll here but definitely one to watch on election night.

This second group of Districts are likely to be competitive in November but are not there yet:

AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,

Democrat Joshua Segall had a $100K December quarter and is behind in COH by only $216K/$392K.

He ran in 2008 and kept Rogers to 46%/54% as McCain carried the District 56%/43%.

Not a friendly district for Democrats but if Segall can file some 6 figure fundraising quarters then this race could well be up there in November.

CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,

Democratic candidate (and Palm Springs Mayor) Stephen Pougnet is on the cusp of a very competitive challenge to GOP incumbent Mary Bono Mack – finally a top tier candidate here.

Obama carried this district 51.5%/46.9% and the GOP registration gap has shrunk from 10% to 3.48% between 2006 and the start of this year – 38.02%/41.50% currently.

The only fly in the ointment (apart from the national political environment!) is of course fundraising. Whilst Pougnet has outraised Bono Mack in two of the last three quarters and has slightly then than half as much COH as her $402K/$893K his COH actually went backwards by 10K last quarter despite a $150K quarter. Pougnet just needs a good solid $200K March Quarter IMHO to cash him up for the stretch and make this race definitely competitive.  

FL-25 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,

With Mario Diaz-Balart bolting to run in the 21st to replace his retiring brother Lincoln this race will be one to watch.

McCain carried this one 50%/49% whilst Diaz-Balart was held to 53%. The Republican Voter registration advantage is only 3364; 137,913/134,549 as at the 2008 election. This is down from 21818 at the 21006 midterms.

Diaz-Balart had only $178K COH as at the end of December too BTW. Expect a top tier Dem to jump in here, maybe 2006 nominee Joe Garcia, and at that point this one should become competitive. The only Democrat currently running, Luis Rivera has yet to file a fundraising report having jumped in only a month or so ago.

MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,

Despite missing out on our preferred candidate State Sen Terri Bonoff there is every chance that this district that Obama carried 52%/46% in 2008 will be competitive. Democratic presumptive nominee Maureen Hackett only got into the race in October and self funded $103K of her $138K quarter ($129K COH). The March quarter will be telling but if as I suspect she has a really good go at fundraising up a storm this one will be competitive. The cloud on the horizon, of course, is incumbent Republican Paulsens’ $943K COH!

MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,

As luck would have it we have two viable candidates in this district that McCain carried 53%/45%.

Maureen Reed has 388K COH after a $208K December quarter.

Tarryl Clark (who I think will be the nominee) has yep $388K COH after a $294K December quarter. These are great numbers for both candidates. The only reason this one isn’t yet on the competitive list is batshit crazy Michelle Bachmanns’ $1 million COH!

If either Democrat can manage another $250K March quarter then this race is on for young and old despite its’ Republican bent.

OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,

Democratic candidate Brooks has her work cut out running against incumbent Republican Tiberi. He and his $1.2 mill COH! And his $449K December quarter haul. Brooks must we wondering what more she needs to do after her 4th quarter haul of $231K, leaving her with $328K COH – a very respectable set of numbers. Will this district that Obama carried 54%/44% be competitive in November? Dunno – but another 200K quarter will at least make Brooks (already a top tier challenger) quite viable.

Time will tell.

The third group of Districts are those that may, but are unlikely, to become competitive:

CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,

Obama won this district 49.5%/48.6% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 22% to a still whopping 15% as at Jan 1. That stat and Republican Campbells’ $1.031M/$171K COH advantage over Democrat Krom makes it unlikely that this race will become competitive. But it may. After all Krom has raised $299K so far this cycle including a reasonable but not great $90K in the December quarter. Campbell’s $500K December quarter makes it very tough though.

CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,

A 60K odd December quarter does not a competitive race make, especially when the COH only increases by $10K!. Busby has been beaten twice before by the current incumbent, and unfortunately seems headed that way again. Working in her favor is the fact that Obama carried the district 51.3%/47.1% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 14% in 2006 to 7.58% (39.91%/31.33%) as at the start of this year. However this will be a what might have been IMHO.

MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,

With former Democratic State Rep Shelley Madore only jumping in at the start of January this race has yet to solidify. On the down side is the fact that McCain carried this district 50%/48%. On the upside incumbent Republican Kline has (only!) $358K COH after a modest $152K December quarter.

Wait and see but it may be a bit late in the cycle for this one to fire up.

NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,

Yet another district where the Democratic candidate (Potosnak) has only just got into the race so it may take some time for things to play out. Obama carried this district 50%/49% and Leonard has only $347K COH (not a lot for a congressional race in New Jersey) and raised only 60K in the December quarter. Interestingly enough the Democrats have a 16K voter registration advantage here as at November 2009 – 121,553/105,943.

TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,

A $151K 4th quarter and $114K COH should be a promising start. Unless your opponent is the head of the NRCC and has $1.075 million COH. Oh dear.

Roggio seems to be quite a credible candidate but without a monster March quarter he just isn’t going to be in a position to be competitive in November.

McCain carried this district 53%/46% too btw – red but not ruby red.

And fourthly these districts have either 3rd tier candidates or candidates whose fundraising precludes a competitive race at this stage:

CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,

A 15K December quarter for leading Democrat Tim Allison means this one can’t be competitive; the resources simply aren’t there. This is all the more so given that Gallegly has $836K COH to Allison’s $35K . Pity because Obama carried this one 50.5%/47.7% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 10% to 5.75% (41.53%/35.78%) between 2006 and the start of this year.

CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,

Our candidate, 2008 nominee Jackie Conaway hasn’t even registered with the FEC – Game over.

Pity as Obama carried the district 49.4%/48.3% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined to 2% over the last 3 years!

CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,

2008 Democratic challenger Warner had a poor December quarter raising only 37K and his COH is only $123K compared to incumbent Republican Dreier’s $1.025 million! Obama won the district 51/47 and the GOP voter reg advantage has dropped from 11% to 4.5% as of the start of 2010.

Despite that the COH gap and Warners’ poor December fundraising means this one is unlikely to be competitive this November alas.

CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,

Obama won this district 49.3%/48.6% and the GOP voter reg advantage has decreased from 15% in 2006 to 8% as at Jan 5th 2010. Competitive race right? Wrong. Democrat Hedrick who only lost in 2008 48.8/51.2 just can’t seem to crank up the fundraising. Having raised only 29K in the December quarter he now trails in the COH race $95K/$519K.

Such a shame.

FL-10 (Young) – R+1,

State Sen Charlie Justice – what a great name for a congressional candidate – is the best candidate that the Democrats have run against republican incumbent Bill Young in years and years. It is such a pity then that Justices’ fundraising is so poor – $59K last quarter and $91K COH.

This is a District that should be competitive; Obama carried it 52%/47% and the Repub voter reg advantage declined from 169,982/153,728 in 2006 to 170,749/164,400 in 2008.

Alas but for that poor fundraising.

FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,

Democrat Lori Edwards won’t make this a competitive election with a $26K December quarter ($60K COH). This is all the more so given that presumptive Republican nominee Dennis Ross has $273K COH as at the end of December after an admittedly poor December quarter; raising only $76K himself.

This is a pity given that McCain only carried the District 50/49 and the Democratic voter reg advantage INCREASED from 2006 – 2008 from 153,189/166,794 to 164,780/192,958. WOW

As an open seat this one will almost certainly be a what might have been in November unless Edwards can seriously step up her fundraising.

FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,

The Democratic candidate Shannon Roberts has not filed a fundraising report despite filing to run over a year ago. Game over.

Pity as this 51%/48% McCain district, with it s’ repidly decreasing GOP voter reg advantage (189,872/158,363 – 2006 199,669/183,100 – 2008) should really have been competitive. Oh well.

IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,

The race has not yet really taken shape in this district that Obama carried 56%/43%. Democratic challenger Ben Lowe filed for the race halfway through November and raised a scant $14K. Republican incumbent Roskam on the other hand after a $350K December quarter is sitting on $547K.

We really won’t know whether this will be competitive or not until after the March fundraising filings come in. I suspect it won’t as both parties will be focused on tussles in the 10th, 11th and 14th.

Maybe in 2012.

IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,

2008 Democratic nominee Harper is back in 2010 in this district that Obama carried 54%/44%.

Unfortunately a $42K December quarter ($90K COH) does not cut the mustard against Republican incumbent Biggert who had a $142K December quarter ($637K COH).

Harper is a good, credible candidate who kept Biggert to 53% in 2008. Unless he has a monster March quarter this one just isn’t going to be competitive in November.

IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,

Whilst Obama carried this district 53%/46% this one only just scraped in as a potentially competitive race. And it won’t be with Democrat Gaulrapp raising a scant $14K ($7K COH) in the December quarter. Manzullo raised $150K ($355K COH) in the same period.

IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,

This race is really still just coming together. However that Democrat Maske managed to fundraise only $12K in the last 2 months of 2009 I think we can safely predict another cakewalk for Republican Latham in this district that Obama won 53%/46%. BTW as at Feb 1st the Democrats had a 8000 voter registration advantage 126503/118484.

MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,

Incumbent Republican McCotter has been on Democratic target lists for years in this 54%/45% Obama district. He was even held to 51% in 2008. Despite this the Democrats have always failed to get a top tier opponent against him. Will 2010 be the year? It is hard to tell honestly but i doubt it. When Democrat Mosher declared at the start of 2009 she struck me (and the party) as being at best 2nd tier.

And this turns out to be the likely case with Mosher raising only $37K in the December quarter ($44K COH) compared to McCotters’ $118K December quarter ($579K) COH. Lets see what the March quarter reports bring but don’t hold your breath.

OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,

With McCain just shading Obama by less than 1% this District should be competitive. But it is unlikely. Whilst 2008 Democratic candidate O’Neill is back for another shot he did get thumped by alomost 20% in 2008. The other Democrat in the race – Greene – hasn’t even registered with the FEC to fundraise despite being in the race since November. Whilst LaTourette only has a modest $447K COH as at the end of November this race is highly unlikely to be a show stopper.

VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,

Another perennial Democratic target sees no less than 4 Democrats running here in 2010. And it is no wonder as Obama carried the district 53%/46% and this part of Virginia is rapidly bluing. Incumbent Republican Wolf has nothing to fear here though, as none of his putative opponents have more than $6K COH as at the end of December compared to Wolfs’ $346K COH. A really disappointing miss for team blue.

WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,

Democratic challenger Garin has $546 COH as at the end of December; incumbent Republican Ryan has $1.565 million. Game over in this 51%/47% Obama district.  

The last group of Districts are those that at this stage do not seem likely to competitive.

as we do not have declared Democratic candidates as yet!

FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,

MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,

MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,

MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,

NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,

NY-03 (King) – R+4,

VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,

WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,

So in summary:

10 competitive races.

6 races that should become competitive.

5 races that may become competitive.

15 races that should be competitive but are highly unlikely to be so.

8 races that should be potentially become competitive but won’t be unless we find a candidate.

Not a particularly pretty scenario for Democrats but not nearly as terrible as the GOP and the traditional media would have you believe.

On to November!