In my last diary the blue statewide trend in California voter registration was quite clear.
But what about the parts of counties with multiple congressional districts?
Below the fold to crack open the walnut…………..
Author: benawu
California voter registration by County 2006-2010
As we patiently await draft Californian congressional maps to be released later this year it is appropriate to check out the trends in voter registration. Given that the boundaries will inevitably change; comparisons by County rather than by CD are illuminating to say the least.
Below the fold for a comparison between October 2006 and October 2010 (midterm to midterm).
| COUNTY | CURRENT CD/S | DEM 2006 REG | REP 2006 REG | GAP | DEM 2010 REG | REP 2010 REG | GAP | TREND | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alameda | 9,10,11,13 | 55.22% | 17.52% | D+37.70% | 56.81% | 15.71% | D+41.10% | D+3.40% | ||
| Alpine | 3 | 35.74% | 34.97% | D+0.77% | 38.2% | 33.42% | D+4.78% | D+4.01% | ||
| Amador | 3 | 34.91% | 46.46% | R+11.55% | 33.14% | 45.66% | R+12.52% | R+0.97% | ||
| Butte | 2,4 | 34.57% | 41.13% | R+6.56% | 34.71% | 39.23% | R+4.52% | D+2.04% | ||
| Calaveras | 3 | 33.94% | 44.79% | R+10.85% | 32.32% | 42.88% | R+10.56% | D+0.29% | ||
| Colusa | 2 | 35.58% | 46.5% | R+10.92% | 35.12% | 46.15% | R+11.03% | R+0.11% | ||
| Contra Costa | 7,10,11 | 48.12% | 29.61% | D+18.51% | 49.8% | 26.27% | D+23.53% | D+5.02% | ||
| Del Norte | 1 | 36.52% | 39.18% | R+2.66% | 36.65% | 37.55% | R+0.90% | D+1.76% | ||
| El Dorado | 4 | 30.71% | 46.51% | R+15.80% | 30.19% | 44.92% | R+14.73% | D+1.07% | ||
| Fresno | 18,19,20,21 | 39.46% | 45.29% | R+5.84% | 40.99% | 40.96% | D+0.03% | D+5.87% | ||
| Glenn | 2 | 32.54% | 47.33% | R+14.79% | 31.25% | 45.81% | R+14.56% | D+0.23% | ||
| Humboldt | 1 | 41.35% | 28.91% | D+12.44% | 42.59% | 26.83% | D+15.76% | D+3.32% | ||
| Imperial | 51 | 55.26% | 26.34% | D+28.92% | 51.68% | 26.66% | D+25.02% | R+3.90% | ||
| Inyo | 25 | 32.14% | 45.14% | R+13% | 32.28% | 44.3% | R+12.02% | D+0.98% | ||
| Kern | 20,22 | 35.7% | 47.4% | R+11.7% | 35.31% | 44.09% | R+8.78% | D+2.92% | ||
| Kings | 20 | 37.89% | 46.83% | R+8.94% | 36.15% | 45.36% | R+9.26% | R+0.32% | ||
| Lake | 1 | 43.29% | 32.03% | D+10.26% | 42.96% | 29.34% | D+13.62% | D+3.36% | ||
| Lassen | 4 | 28.93% | 46.62% | R+17.69% | 26.85% | 47.82% | R+20.97% | R+3.28% | ||
| Los Angeles | 22,25 – 39,42,46 | 49.74% | 27.02% | D+22.72% | 51.4% | 23.58% | D+27.82% | D+5.10% | ||
| Madera | 18,19 | 33.7% | 49.21% | R+15.51% | 35.28% | 45.08% | R+9.8% | D+5.71% | ||
| Marin | 6 | 51.73% | 22.44% | D+29.29% | 54.61% | 19.32% | D+35.29% | D+6.00% | ||
| Mariposa | 19 | 32.3% | 46.81% | R+14.51% | 31.07% | 44.92% | R+13.85% | D+0.66% | ||
| Mendocino | 1 | 46.27% | 24.86% | D+21.41% | 47.2% | 22.48% | D+24.72% | D+3.31% | ||
| Merced | 18 | 45.01% | 41.03% | D+3.98% | 46.27% | 34.74% | D+11.53% | D+7.55% | ||
| Modoc | 4 | 30.22% | 49.34% | R+19.12% | 26.76% | 49.24% | R+22.28% | R+3.16% | ||
| Mono | 25 | 31.1% | 38.64% | R+7.54% | 32.37% | 36.91% | R+4.54% | D+3.00% | ||
| Monterey | 17 | 48.23% | 30.8% | D+17.43% | 53.45% | 25.52% | D+27.93% | D+10.50% | ||
| Napa | 1 | 46.08% | 31.36% | D+14.72% | 47.2% | 27.21% | D+19.99% | D+5.27% | ||
| Nevada | 4 | 32.2% | 42.96% | R+10.76% | 33.66% | 40.04% | R+6.38% | D+4.38% | ||
| Orange | 40,42,44,46,47,48 | 30.07% | 47.9% | R+17.83% | 31.92% | 43.18% | R+11.26% | D+6.57% | ||
| Placer | 4 | 28.67% | 51.43% | R+22.76% | 28.89% | 48.23% | R+19.34% | D+3.42% | ||
| Plumas | 4 | 33.36% | 43.8% | R+10.44% | 32.37% | 43.16% | R+10.79% | R+0.35% | ||
| Riverside | 41,44,45,49 | 34.42% | 45.7% | R+11.28% | 36.29% | 41.87% | R+5.58% | D+5.70% | ||
| Sacramento | 3,4,5,10 | 42.61% | 34.54% | D+8.07% | 43.93% | 33.76% | D+10.17% | D+2.10% | ||
| San Benito | 17 | 45.05% | 33.86% | D+11.19% | 48.18% | 30.34% | D+17.84% | D+6.65% | ||
| San Bernardino | 25,26,41,42,43 | 37.59% | 42.41% | R+4.82% | 39.01% | 38.46% | D+0.55% | D+5.37% | ||
| San Diego | 49,50,51,52,53 | 34.16% | 39.52% | R+5.36% | 35.92% | 36.27% | R+0.35% | D+5.01% | ||
| San Francisco | 8,12 | 54.43% | 10.92% | D+43.51% | 56.26% | 9.53% | D+46.73% | D+3.22% | ||
| San Joaquin | 11,18 | 42.43% | 40.6% | D+1.83% | 42.66% | 38.96% | D+3.70% | D+1.87% | ||
| San Luis Obispo | 22,23 | 35.08% | 41.84% | R+6.76% | 34.96% | 39.89% | R+4.93% | D+2.83% | ||
| San Mateo | 12,14 | 49.42% | 24.46% | D+24.96% | 51.77% | 20.76% | D+31.01% | D+6.05% | ||
| Santa Barbara | 23,24 | 40.39% | 35.53% | D+4.86% | 42.37% | 32.14% | D+10.23% | D+5.37% | ||
| Santa Clara | 11,14, 15,16 | 44.9% | 26.84% | D+18.06% | 45.88% | 23.89% | D+21.99% | D+3.93% | ||
| Santa Cruz | 14,17 | 53.04% | 20.26% | D+32.78% | 54.83% | 17.72% | D+37.11% | D+4.33% | ||
| Shasta | 2 | 30.11% | 49.18% | R+19.07% | 28.44% | 47.25% | R+18.81% | D+0.26% | ||
| Sierra | 4 | 31.1% | 42.81% | R+11.71% | 29.11% | 42.6% | R+13.49% | R+1.78% | ||
| Siskiyou | 2 | 35.5% | 42.3% | R+6.80% | 33.86% | 40.96% | R+7.10% | R+0.30% | ||
| Solano | 3,7,10 | 48.61% | 29.12% | D+19.49% | 49.53% | 26.16% | D+23.37% | D+3.88% | ||
| Sonoma | 1,6 | 50.17% | 25.71% | D+24.46% | 52.13% | 22.74% | D+29.39% | D+4.93% | ||
| Stanislaus | 18,19 | 40.23% | 42.24% | R+2.01% | 43.38% | 36.78% | D+6.60% | D+8.61% | ||
| Sutter | 2 | 32.26% | 49.51% | R+17.25% | 33.38% | 46.28% | R+12.90% | D+4.35% | ||
| Tehama | 2 | 33.3% | 45.3% | R+12.00% | 31.43% | 44.33% | R+12.90% | D+0.90% | ||
| Trinity | 2 | 35.94% | 39.07% | R+3.13% | 35.46% | 35.54% | R+0.08% | D+3.05% | ||
| Tulare | 21 | 34.25% | 48.03% | R+13.78% | 34.54% | 45.49% | R+10.95% | D+2.83% | ||
| Tuolumne | 19 | 36.27% | 43.73% | R+7.46% | 33.42% | 42.63% | R+9.21% | R+1.75% | ||
| Ventura | 23,24 | 38.07% | 39.83% | R+1.76% | 39.76% | 36.97% | D+2.79% | D+4.55% | ||
| Yolo | 1,2 | 46.17% | 27.53% | D+18.64% | 47.85% | 24.64% | D+23.21% | D+4.57% | ||
| Yuba | 2 | 33.96% | 42.52% | R+8.56% | 33.43% | 40.04% | R+6.61% | D+1.95% |
Some observations:
In 2006 the Dems had a majority of registered voters in 6 counties, the Repubs in 1. In 2010 the numbers are 9 and 0 respectively.
In 2006 there were more Dems than Repubs in 23/58 Counties, in 2010 this has increased to 27/58.
Only 10 counties trended Repub between 2006-2010, 48 trended Dem. Of the 10 counties that trended Repub 7 of them are in the 2nd,3rd or 4th CD’s.
The biggest improvement between 2006 & 2010 came for the Repubs in Imperial at 3.90% and for the Dems it was in Monterey at 10.5%. No less than 24 counties improved for the Dems by more than Imperial did for the Repubs.
Repubs have a more than 10 point registration lead in 17 counties, Dems have the same in 21.
In four counties the voter reg gap is less than 200 voters!
Trinty – 6! (R)
Alpine – 35 (D)
Del Norte – 112 (R)
Fresno – 161 (D)
All of these Counties trended Dem between 2006 & 2010.
So what does this all mean?
As others have discussed at great length the future for the Republicans in California looks bleak. The areas of California that are trending Repub are almost entirely small inland counties with declining or very slowing growing populations. And whilst the Repubs still maintain sizable voter reg buffers in large counties like Orange and Riverside these counties are rapidly blueing.
For us Dems the news is looking great for obvious reasons. I expect by the 2012 General Election that the GOP will comprise less than 30% of registered voters in CA and that the Dems will be at least 45% – a huge 15%+ gap. Currently the respective numbers are 44/31.
What is going on in NY-25?
Well what a topsy turvy race this has been. On election night we thought that Maffei had it in the bag, only to discover, when all 4 counties that make up NY-25 reported all precincts, that the Republican candidate was in fact in front by 684 votes!
Below the fold for more……..
Now almost a week after election day it seems that about 11,000 absentee ballots were distributed across the 25th. Final returns won’t be known for at least another week.
What we do know is this:
Election day numbers (D/R):
Cayuga – 959(35.4%)/1748(64.6%)
Monroe – 16426(45.1%)/19987(54.9%)
Onondaga – 72323(53.7%)/62419(46.3%)
Wayne – 9191(37.3%)/15429(62.7%)
Election day totals 98899(49.8%)/99583(50.2%)
Absentees issued (final total)/returned (as of last wednesday night)
Cayuga – 148/117
Monroe – 1660/1243
Onondaga – 8154/5578
Wayne – 1683/1226
TOTALS – 11654/8154
So lets test three scenarios:
1) Vote %’s remain as they were on election day and absentees as per last wednesday night (highly unlikely) then the vote totals will be (D/R):
Cayuga – 1000/1824
Monroe – 16985/20671
Onondaga – 75432/65068
Wayne – 9651/16212
TOTALS – 103068/103775
2) Vote %’s remain as they were on election day but absentee return rate is 100%(also unrealistic)
Absentee returns:
Cayuga – 148/148
Monroe – 1660/1660
Onondaga – 8154/8154
Wayne – 1683/1683
TOTALS – 11654/11654
Votes (D/R)
Cayuga – 1011(35.4%)/1844(64.6%)
Monroe – 17175(45.1%)/20898(54.9%)
Onondaga – 76702(53.7%)/66194(46.3%)
Wayne – 9819(37.3%)/16484(62.7%)
TOTALS – 104707/105420
3) Absentee returns increase by 5% and Maffei Onondaga vote increases by .5%
Absentee returns:
Cayuga – 148/124
Monroe – 1660/1326
Onondaga – 8154/5986
Wayne – 1683/1310
TOTALS – 11654/8746
Votes (D/R)
Cayuga – 1003/1828
Monroe – 17024/20715
Onondaga – 76742/65160
Wayne – 9680/16250
TOTALS – 104449/103953
Maffei by 496.
So what does this mean?
Simply put the only way for Maffei to win is to get a higher percentage of the absentee vote than he did the election day vote. A high absentee return will not by itself get him over the line.
Obviously the most likely way for him to make up enough votes is in Onondaga county, the largest part of the district, and the only county he won.
Can he do it? Time will tell. I think he can by the way as absentees tend to trend toward incumbents as compred to election day votes (as a rule of thumb).
Your thoughts?
Jim Costa will probably win CA-20
On Tuesday night we were all (including me) counting Jim Costa amongst the casualties of the 2010 GOP wave. After all he was trailing Republican challenger Andy Vidak by 1823 votes with 100% of precincts reporting.
Fortunately that judgement seems to have been premature. 🙂
Below the fold for all the details…….
CA-20 comprises part of Fresno and Kern counties and all of Kings.
Whilst votes cast in district on election day have all been counted there are still a large number of vote by mail, provisional and “other” ballots to be counted. Other ballots include ballots that are damaged, ballots that could not be machine read and ballots diverted by optical scanners for further review.
Of course some of these have been processed and counted since Tuesday and as of the close of counting on friday Costa has narrowed the gap to only 1091 votes!
Here is how I think the remaining votes will shape out.
Firstly Fresno County.
Fresno thus far has voted 60/40 in favour of Costa and it has about 80000 votes left to count. The number of 20th District votes left in Fresno is approximately 16000. If these break for Costa as the votes counted have thus far then that is a net gain for Costa of about 3200 votes.
Secondly Kern County.
Kern has thus far split 62/38 in favour of Costa and it has about 65000 votes to count. About 13000 of these are in the 20th. If they shape out the way votes counted thus far have then Costa stands to gain about another 2500 votes.
Lastly Kings County.
Kings is all in the 20th and has voted thus far 70/30 in favour of Vidak. However Kings has only another 500 odd votes to count which would give Vidak a gain of only 200 votes.
So…..
-1100 (current Vidak lead)
-200 (Kings gain to Vidak)
+3200 (Fresno Gain to Costa)
+2500 (Kern Gain to Costa)
That leaves Costa in front when all is said, done and counted by about 4400 votes. Assume my numbers are overly optimistic. (They are approximate for ease of calculation but otherwise no heroic or unrealistic assumptions have been made.)
Then Costa should have an ample lead to win.
Your thoughts at this seemingly great news?
House candidate filing rolls on and on
With candidate filing now closed in 28 states (as per the SSP election calender)it is time to pause, take a deep breath, and have a look at how both parties are traveling vis a vis candidate recruitment for the House of Representatives.
Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
State No of CD’s D R
Alabama 7CD 4 7
Arkansas 4CD 4 4
California 53CD 51 52
Idaho 2CD 2 2
Illinois 19CD 19 18
Indiana 9CD 9 9
Iowa 5CD 5 5
Kentucky 6CD 6 6
Maine 2CD 2 2
Mississippi 4CD 4 4
Missouri 9CD 8 9
Montana 1CD 1 1
Nebraska 3CD 3 3
Nevada 3CD 3 3
New Jersey 13CD 13 13
New Mexico 3CD 3 3
North Carolina 13CD 13 13
North Dakota 1CD 1 1
Ohio 18CD 18 18
Oregon 5CD 5 5
Pennsylvania 19CD 18 18
South Carolina 6CD 6 6
South Dakota 1CD 1 1
Tennessee 9CD 9 9
Texas 32CD 26 32
Utah 3CD 3 3
Virginia 11CD Parties can nominate candidates until May 15th
West Virginia 3CD 3 3
TOTAL 316 302 313
So the GOP are contesting 11 more House districts than us.
In 2006 We contested 425 and in 2008 421. This year we will be lucky to get to 410. As for the GOP they are well on the way to contesting 430 or so; which would be a record.
What a shame.
House Districts now have Republican candidates (2 of 2)
A week ago I took a look at our efforts to recruit House candidates for 2010. This time it is the Republicans.
Lots more Districts now have Republican candidates and they are getting wingnuttier all the time.
AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,
CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,
CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,
CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,
CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,
CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,
CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,
IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,
IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,
MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,
MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,
MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,
NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,
NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,
OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,
OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,
OH-17 (Ryan) – D+12,
PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,
TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,
WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,
WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,
Below the fold for all the details (and bring some eyewash) and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
Also keep an eye out for the great series on Democratic House Candidates by Adam T
(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)
As we assumed for us so should we assume for them; so all 177 Republican held districts can be considered filled.
176 Democratic held Districts have confirmed GOP candidates:
AL-02 (Bright) – R+16,
AL-07 (Davis OPEN) – D+18,
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick) – R+6,
AZ-04 (Pastor) – D+13,
AZ-05 (Mitchell) – R+5,
AZ-07 (Grijalva) – D+6,
AZ-08 (Giffords) – R+4,
AR-01 (Berry OPEN) – R+8,
AR-02 (Snyder OPEN) – R+5,
AR-04 (Ross) – R+7,
CA-01 (Thompson) – D+13,
CA-06 (Woolsey) – D+23,
CA-08 (Pelosi) – D+35,
CA-11 (McNerney) – R+1,
CA-13 (Stark) – D+22,
CA-15 (Honda) – D+15,
CA-18 (Cardoza) – D+4,
CA-20 (Costa) – D+5,
CA-23 (Capps) – D+12,
CA-27 (Sherman) – D+13,
CA-28 (Berman) – D+23,
CA-29 (Schiff) – D+14,
CA-30 (Waxman) – D+18,
CA-33 (Watson OPEN) – D+35,
CA-36 (Harman) – D+12,
CA-39 (Sanchez) – D+12,
CA-47 (Sanchez) – D+4,
CA-51 (Filner) – D+8,
CA-53 (Davis) – D+14,
CO-01 (DeGette) – D+21,
CO-02 (Polis) – D+11,
CO-03 (Salazar) – R+5,
CO-04 (Markey) – R+6,
CO-07 (Perlmutter) – D+4,
CT-02 (Courtney) – D+6,
CT-03 (DeLauro) – D+9,
CT-04 (Himes) – D+5,
CT-05 (Murphy) – D+2,
FL-02 (Boyd) – R+6,
FL-03 (Brown) – D+18,
FL-08 (Grayson) – R+2,
FL-11 (Castor) – D+11,
FL-17 (Meek OPEN) – D+34,
FL-19 (Wexler Special Election) – D+15,
FL-20 (Wasserman Schulz) – D+13,
FL-22 (Klein) – D+1,
FL-23 (Hastings) – D+28,
FL-24 (Kosmas) – R+4,
GA-02 (Bishop) – D+1,
GA-04 (Johnson) – D+24,
GA-08 (Marshall) – R+10,
GA-12 (Barrow) – D+1,
GA-13 (Scott) – D+15,
HI-01 (Abercrombie OPEN) – D+11,
ID-01 (Minnick) – R+18,
IA-01 (Braley) – D+5,
IA-02 (Loebsack) – D+1,
IA-03 (Boswell) – D+1,
KS-03 (Moore OPEN) – R+3,
LA-03 (Melancon OPEN) – R+12,
ME-02 (Michaud) – D+3,
MD-01 (Kratovil) – R+13,
MD-03 (Sarbanes) – D+6,
MD-04 (Edwards) – D+31,
MD-05 (Hoyer) – D+11,
MD-08 (Van Hollen Jr) – D+21,
MA-01 (Olger) – D+14,
MA-02 (Neal) – D+9,
MA-04 (Frank) – D+14,
MA-05 (Tsongas) – D+8,
MA-06 (Tierney) – D+7,
MA-07 (Markey) – D+15,
MA-10 (Delahunt) – D+5,
MI-05 (Kildee) – D+11,
MI-07 (Schauer) – R+2,
MI-09 (Peters) – D+2,
MI-12 (Levin) – D+12,
MN-01 (Walz) – R+1,
MN-04 (McCollum) – D+13,
MN-05 (Ellison) – D+23,
MN-08 (Oberstar) – D+3,
MO-03 (Carnahan) – D+7,
MO-04 (Skelton) – R+14,
MO-05 (Cleaver) – D+10,
NV-01 (Berkley) – D+10,
NV-03 (Titus) – D+2,
NH-01 (Shea Porter) – D+0,
NH-02 (Hodes OPEN) – D+3,
NJ-03 (Adler) – R+1,
NJ-12 (Holt) – D+5,
NY-01 (Bishop) – D+0,
NY-04 (McCarthy) – D+6,
NY-13 (McMahon) – R+4,
NY-15 (Rangel) – D+41,
NY-19 (Hall) – R+3,
NY-22 (Hinchey) – D+6,
NY-23 (Owens) – R+1,
NY-25 (Maffei) – D+3,
NY-29 (Massa) – R+5,
ND-AL (Pomeroy) – R+10,
OK-02 (Boren) – R+14,
OR-01 (Wu) – D+8,
OR-04 (DeFazio) – D+2,
OR-05 (Schrader) – D+1,
PA-01 (Brady) – D+35,
PA-03 (Dahlkemper) – R+3,
PA-04 (Altmire) – R+6,
PA-07 (Sestak OPEN) – D+3,
PA-08 (Murphy) – D+2,
PA-10 (Carney) – R+8,
PA-11 (Kanjorski) – D+4,
PA-12 (Murtha) – R+1,
PA-13 (Schwartz) – D+7,
PA-14 (Doyle) – D+19,
PA-17 (Holden) – R+6,
RI-01 (Kennedy OPEN) – D+13,
RI-02 (Langevin) – D+9,
SC-05 (Spratt) – R+7,
SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin) – R+9,
TN-04 (Davis) – R+13,
TN-05 (Cooper) – D+3,
TN-06 (Gordon OPEN) – R+13,
TN-08 (Tanner OPEN) – R+6,
UT-02 (Matheson) – R+15,
VA-02 (Nye) – R+5,
VA-05 (Perriello) – R+5,
VA-08 (Moran) – D+16,
VA-09 (Boucher) – R+11,
VA-11 (Connolly) – D+2,
WA-01 (Inslee) – D+9,
WA-02 (Larsen) – D+3,
WA-03 (Baird OPEN) – D+0,
WA-06 (Dicks) – D+5,
WA-09 (Smith) – D+5,
WI-02 (Baldwin) – D+15,
WI-03 (Kind) – D+4,
WI-04 (Moore) – D+22,
WI-07 (Obey) – D+3,
WI-08 (Kagen) – R+2,
This includes 10 Districts where candidate filing has closed:
IL-01 (Rush) – D+34,
IL-02 (Jackson Jr) – D+36,
IL-03 (Lipinski) – D+11,
IL-05 (Quigley) – D+19,
IL-07 (Davis) – D+35,
IL-08 (Bean) – R+1,
IL-09 (Schakowsky) – D+20,
IL-11 (Halvorson) – R+1,
IL-12 (Costello) – D+3,
IL-14 (Foster) – R+1,
IL-17 (Hare) – D+3,
IN-01 (Visclosky) – D+8,
IN-02 (Donnelly) – R+2,
IN-07 (Carson) – D+14,
IN-08 (Ellsworth) – R+8,
IN-09 (Hill) – R+6,
KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,
KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,
MS-01 (Childers) – R+14,
MS-02 (Thompson) – D+12,
MS-04 (Taylor) – R+20,
NM-01 (Heinrich) – D+5,
NM-02 (Teague) – R+6,
NM-03 (Lujan) – D+7,
NC-01 (Butterfield) – D+9,
NC-02 (Etheridge) – R+2,
NC-04 (Price) – D+8,
NC-07 (McIntyre) – R+5,
NC-08 (Kissell) – R+2,
NC-11 (Shuler) – R+6,
NC-12 (Watt) – D+16,
NC-13 (Miller) – D+5,
OH-01 (Driehaus) – D+1,
OH-06 (Wilson) – R+2,
OH-09 (Kaptor) – D+10,
OH-10 (Kucinich) – D+8,
OH-11 (Fudge) – D+32,
OH-13 (Sutton) – D+5,
OH-15 (Kilroy) – D+1,
OH-16 (Boccieri) – R+4,
OH-17 (Ryan) – D+12,
OH-18 (Space) – R+7,
TX-09 (Green) – D+22,
TX-15 (Hinojosa) – D+3,
TX-16 (Reyes) – D+10,
TX-17 (Edwards) – R+20,
TX-18 (Jackson Lee) – D+24,
TX-20 (Gonzalez) – D+8,
TX-23 (Rodriguez) – R+4,
TX-25 (Doggett) – D+6,
TX-27 (Ortiz) – R+2,
TX-28 (Cuellar) – R+0,
TX-29 (Green) – D+8,
TX-30 (Johnson) – D+27,
WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,
WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,
7 Democratic held Districts have GOP candidates that are considering a run:
CA-10 (Garamendi) – D+11,
ME-01 (Pingree) – D+8,
NY-14 (Maloney) – D+26,
NY-20 (Murphy) – R+2,
NY-24 (Arcuri) – R+2,
WA-07 (McDermott) – D+31,
1 Democratic held District has a rumoured GOP Party candidates:
NJ-08 (Pascrell) – D+10,
72 Democratic held Districts don’t have any GOP candidates:
CA-05 (Matsui) – D+15,
CA-07 (Miller) – D+19,
CA-09 (Lee) – D+37,
CA-12 (Speier) – D+23,
CA-14 (Eshoo) – D+21,
CA-16 (Lofgren) – D+16,
CA-17 (Farr) – D+19,
CA-31 (Becerra) – D+29,
CA-32 (Chu) – D+15,
CA-34 (Roybal-Allard) – D+22,
CA-35 (Waters) – D+31,
CA-37 (Richardson) – D+26,
CA-38 (Napolitano) – D+18,
CA-43 (Baca) – D+13,
CT-01 (Larson) – D+13,
GA-05 (Lewis) – D+26,
HI-02 (Hirono) – D+14,
MD-02 (Ruppersberger) – D+7,
MD-07 (Cummings) – D+25,
MA-03 (McGovern) – D+9,
MA-08 (Capuano) – D+32,
MA-09 (Lynch) – D+11,
MI-01 (Stupak) – R+3,
MI-13 (Kilpatrick) – D+31,
MI-14 (Conyers) – D+34,
MI-15 (Dingell) – D+13,
MN-07 (Peterson) – R+5,
MO-01 (Clay) – D+27,
NJ-01 (Andrews) – D+12,
NJ-06 (Pallone) – D+8,
NJ-09 (Rothman) – D+9,
NJ-10 (Payne) – D+33,
NJ-13 (Sires) – D+21,
NY-02 (Israel) – D+4,
NY-05 (Ackerman) – D+12,
NY-06 (Meeks) – D+36,
NY-07 (Crowley) – D+26,
NY-08 (Nadler) – D+22,
NY-09 (Weiner) – D+5,
NY-10 (Towns) – D+38,
NY-11 (Clarke) – D+38,
NY-12 (Velazquez) – D+33,
NY-16 (Serrano) – D+41,
NY-17 (Engel) – D+18,
NY-18 (Lowey) – D+9,
NY-21 (Tonko) – D+6,
NY-27 (Higgins) – D+4,
NY-28 (Slaughter) – D+15,
OR-03 (Blumenauer) – D+19,
PA-02 (Fattah) – D+38,
SC-06 (Clyburn) – D+12,
TN-09 (Cohen) – D+23,
VT-AL (Welch) – D+13,
VA-03 (Scott) – D+20,
Candidate Filing closed – No Candidate – 2 Districts
IL-04 (Gutierrez) – D+32,
So the Republicans have confirmed candidates in 353 districts (with 2 Democrats being given free passes in 2010). Take a look at some of their challengers websites though and your eyeballs will bleed. They also have 7 districts with candidates that are considering a run and 1 district with rumoured candidates.
They also have some huge gaps in California and New York.
They already have a full House slate in Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming (we have 23 such states).
They also have but one slot to fill in Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Missouri, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia (we have 8 such states).
And of course there is Illinois where 2 districts won’t have Republican candidates on the ballot in 2010.
Expect candidates to bob up with increasing frequency from here on in.
Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.
More updates soon.
Many more House Districts now have Democratic candidates.
In less than 10 months the midterms will be upon us.
In 2006 we fielded candidates in 425 districts and in 2008 candidates in 421.
How will we go in 2010?
Since my last update many more brave Democrats have stepped up to run in Republican held Districts.
AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,
AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,
CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,
CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,
CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,
CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,
GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,
IN-04 (Buyer OPEN) – R+14,
IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,
KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,
KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,
NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,
NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,
NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,
NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,
NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,
NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,
OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,
OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,
OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,
OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,
OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,
OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,
TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,
TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,
TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,
TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,
TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,
TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,
TX-12 (Granger) – R+16,
TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,
Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)
Well for starters I think we can safely assume that we will field candidates in all 257 of the Districts that we currently hold.
So onto the Republican held districts:
GOP held Districts have confirmed Democratic Party candidates. This includes in states where candidate filing is still open:
AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,
AL-05 (Griffith) – R+12,
AL-06 (Bachus) – R+29,
AK-AL (Young) – R+13,
AZ-03 (Shadegg OPEN) – R+9,
AZ-06 (Flake) – R+15,
AR-03 (Boozman OPEN) – R+16,
CA-02 (Herger) – R+11,
CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,
CA-04 (McClintock) – R+10,
CA-19 (Radanovich Open) – R+9,
CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,
CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,
CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,
CA-41 (Lewis) – R+10,
CA-42 (Miller) – R+10,
CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,
CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,
CA-46 (Rohrabacher) – R+6,
CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,
CA-49 (Issa) – R+10,
CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,
C0-06 (Coffman) – R+8,
DE-AL (Castle OPEN) – D+7,
FL-01 (Miller) – R+21,
FL-05 (Brown-Waite) – R+9,
FL-06 (Stearns) – R+10,
FL-07 (Mica) – R+7,
FL-10 (Young) – R+1,
FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,
FL-13 (Buchanan) – R+6,
FL-14 (Mack) – R+11,
FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,
FL-16 (Rooney) – R+5,
FL-21 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,
GA-09 (Deal OPEN) – R+28,
GA-10 (Broun) – R+15,
IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,
IA-05 (King) – R+9,
KS-01 (Moran OPEN) – R+23,
KS-04 (Tiahrt OPEN) – R+14,
LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,
MD-06 (Bartlett) – R+13,
MI-02 (Hoekstra OPEN) – R+7,
MI-11 (McCotter) – R+0,
MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,
MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,
MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,
MO-08 (Emerson) – R+17,
MT-AL (Rehberg) – R+7,
NV-02 (Heller) – R+5,
NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,
NJ-04 (Smith) – R+6,
NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,
OR-02 (Walden) – R+10,
PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,
PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,
PA-16 (Pitts) – R+8,
PA-18 (Murphy) – R+6,
PA-19 (Platts) – R+12,
SC-01 (Brown OPEN) – R+10,
SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,
SC-03 (Barrett OPEN) – R+17,
TN-03 (Wamp OPEN) – R+13,
TN-07 (Blackburn) – R+18,
VA-01 (Wittman) – R+7,
VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,
WA-04 (Hastings) – R+13,
WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,
WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,
WI-05 (Sensenbrenner) – R+12,
Included in this total are 20 GOP held Districts with candidates in states where filing has closed:
IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,
IL-10 (Kirk OPEN) – D+6,
IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,
IL-15 (Johnson) – R+6,
IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,
IL-18 (Schock) – R+6,
IL-19 (Shimkus) – R+9,
IN-03 (Souder) – R+14,
IN-04 (Buyer OPEN) – R+14,
IN-05 (Burton) – R+17,
IN-06 (Pence) – R+10,
KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,
KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,
KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,
KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,
MS-03 (Harper) – R+15,
NE-01 (Fortenberry) – R+11,
NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,
NE-03 (Smith) – R+24,
NC-03 (Jones) – R+16,
NC-05 (Foxx) – R+15,
NC-06 (Coble) – R+18,
NC-09 (Myrick) – R+11,
NC-10 (McHenry) – R+17,
OH-02 (Schmidt) – R+13,
OH-03 (Turner) – R+5,
OH-04 (Jordan) – R+15,
OH-05 (Latta) – R+9,
OH-07 (Austria) – R+7,
OH-08 (Boehner) – R+11,
OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,
OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,
TX-03 (Johnson) – R+14,
TX-04 (Hall) – R+21,
TX-05 (Hensarling) – R+17,
TX-06 (Barton) – R+15,
TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,
TX-10 (McCaul) – R+10,
TX-11 (Conaway) – R+28,
TX-14 (Paul) – R+18,
TX-19 (Neugebaeur) – R+26,
TX-21 (Smith) – R+14,
TX-22 (Olsen) – R+13,
TX-26 (Burgess) – R+13,
TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,
WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,
4 GOP held Districts have Democratic Party candidates that are considering a run:
NY-03 (King) – R+4,
WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,
2 GOP held Districts have rumoured Democratic Party candidates:
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,
OK-01 (Sullivan) – R+16,
GOP held Districts don’t have any Democratic Party candidates:
AL-01 (Bonner) – R+14,
AL-04 (Aderholt) – R+26,
AZ-02 (Franks) – R+13,
CA-21 (Nunes) – R+13,
CA-22 (McCarthy) – R+16,
CA-40 (Royce) – R+8,
CA-52 (Hunter) – R+9,
C0-05 (Lamborn) – R+14,
FL-04 (Crenshaw) – R+17,
FL-09 (Bilirakis) – R+6,
GA-01 (Kingston) – R+16,
GA-03 (Westmoreland) – R+19,
GA-06 (Price) – R+19,
GA-07 (Linder) – R+16,
GA-11 (Gingrey) – R+20,
ID-02 (Simpson) – R+17,
KS-02 (Jenkins) – R+9,
LA-01 (Scalise) – R+24,
LA-04 (Fleming) – R+11,
LA-05 (Alexander) – R+14,
LA-06 (Cassidy) – R+10,
LA-07 (Boustany) – R+14,
MI-03 (Ehlers OPEN) – R+6,
MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,
MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,
MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,
MI-10 (Miller) – R+5,
MO-02 (Akin) – R+9,
MO-06 (Graves) – R+7,
MO-07 (Blunt OPEN) – R+15,
MO-09 (Luetkemeyer) – R+9,
NJ-05 (Garrett) – R+7,
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) – R+7,
NY-26 (Lee) – R+6,
OK-03 (Lucas) – R+24,
OK-04 (Cole) – R+18,
OK-05 (Fallin OPEN) – R+13,
PA-05 (Thompson) – R+9,
PA-09 (Shuster) – R+17,
SC-04 (Inglis) – R+15,
TN-01 (Roe) – R+21,
TN-02 (Duncan) – R+16,
UT-01 (Bishop) – R+21,
UT-03 (Chaffetz) – R+26,
VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,
VA-06 (Goodlatte) – R+12,
VA-07 (Cantor) – R+9,
WA-05 (McMorris Rodgers) – R+7,
WY-AL (Lummis) – R+20,
Included in this total are 6 Republican held districts where there is not a Democratic candidate on the ballot as at the closing of candidate filings:
TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,
TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,
TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,
TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,
TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,
TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,
So we now have candidate in House Districts, 4 Districts with candidates considering their options and 2 with rumored candidates.
In this stage in 2007 we had candidates in about 370 Districts but we do now hold 20 more districts. All things considered not a bad position to be in.
Whilst at this stage there is no real cause for concern vis a vis candidate recruitment, so much more remains to be done.
On the upside we already have a full slate in 23 states – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont & West Virginia.
We also have only 1 district to fill in 8 states – Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, South Carolina, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
On the other hand we have Texas where 6 GOP incumbents will be unopposed in November!
Any news, gossip or thoughts in the comments please.
House 2010 Midterms – More than just defense.
Whilst the Massachusetts Senate Special and a series of dodgy house polls have Democrats convinced that the November midterms will be apocalyptic; the fact is that a number of Republican held House districts are in fact vulnerable to a takeover from Democratic challengers.
How many?
Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
***This diary should be read in conjunction with the diary by Silver Spring***
There are 5 groups of races that are or might become or potentially should be competitive in November. They include Obama Republican districts, districts with very good candidates and districts of a Republican PVI of R+4 and less.
The first ten races below are ranked in order of probability of takeover. These races WILL be competitive in November.
1. DE-AL (Castle) – D+7,
Stick a fork in this one it is done.
With Castle running for the Senate does anyone really think there is a Republican in Delaware who can hold this district for the GOP? Especially as the Democratic Party currently leads in voter reg – 288,380 to 180,620.
With Carney sitting on a 100/1 Cash on hand advantage as at the end of December and the only poll available showing Carney with a 23 point lead this 62% Obama district is certain to end up in the Democratic column in November.
2. LA-02 (Cao) – D+25,
Incumbent GOP Rep Anh Cao has one thing and one thing alone going for him – a Cash on Hand advantage of $91K as at the end of December – $316K-$225K.
Every other indicator tells us that presumptive Democratic nominee State Rep Cedric Richmond will steamroll his way through this race in November.
After all Obama got no less than 75% of the vote in this D+25 district. Also there are 237,103 registered Democrats and only 39,753 registered Republicans. And lastly of course, we can all remember how Cao only won in 2008 courtesy of an awfully corrupt Democratic incumbent – Bill Jefferson.
Cao is toast.
3. IL-10 (Kirk) – D+6,
With Republican Dold and Democrat Seals emerging from competitive primaries this open District race is definitely on the radar for 2010.
Dold leads in COH $198K/$145K (as at 13th January) but Seals has the rolodex to crank up the fundraising on his 3rd attempt at the district, particularly if supporters of his vanquished primary opponent – Julie Hamos – circle the wagons and pitch in (she did raise over $1 mill). To this point Seals has outraised Dold too.
Seals will win here for two interlinked reasons:
1) Obama got 61% of the vote here in 2008.
2) Dold is just not moderate enough to attract crossover votes the way Mark Kirk did.
– I should note I volunteered for Seals in 2008 and am ridiculously biased.
4. PA-06 (Gerlach) – D+4,
With Gerlach back in the race (but flat broke (and his aborted Gubernatorial race was flat broke too at the end) this one will be the focus of much attention.
Presumptive nominee Doug Pike has more than $1 Mill COH as at 31st December, although it is largely self funded. BTW at this stage in 2008 Gerlach had raised almost $1.5 mill and still almost lost 52%/48% over a 2nd tier candidate.
This D+4, 58% Obama district (that also voted for Kerry like all of my top 6 races) is at worst a 50/50 pick up chance.
5. PA-15 (Dent) – D+2,
For the first time Dent has a serious top tier opponent. Having dispatched a serious of 2nd tier candidates Dent is in for the race of his life in 2010. Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan seems to be the real deal. As well as already being a public official Callahan has in the last quarter outraised Dent and they are basically equal in
COH.
Dent must be worried as his campaign released a very dodgy internal poll showing him leading 58%/27% but refused to release the internals to go with it (a sure sign of bodgy polling)as is the claimed Obama approval rating of 41% compared to a Pennsylvania wide 57% (According to Gallup). Obama won this district in 2008 56%/43%.
Callahan has a shot here. Either way it will be competitive.
6. WA-08 (Reichert) – D+3,
Washingtons’ 8th congressional district is one of a handful that are on the perennial target list for Democrats that we didn’t win in 2006 or 2008. Will 2010 be the year? Yeh quite possibly.
Obama carried this one 56%/42% in 2008 whilst Reichert was held to 52.78% by Darcy Burner.
So far so good.
As at the end of December Democrat Delbene led the COH race $773,327/$477,149 and had raised to that point $1,047,873 to Reicherts’$985,665. Whilst almost half of Delbenes’ total came from a loan from herself to the campaign she has shown herself to be adept at fundraising from others. Yep we have a self funder who can also fundraise.
Watch this one on election night – very closely.
7. CA-03 (Lundgren) – R+6,
Well whoever would have thunk it; CA-03 as a competitive race!
Democrat Amri has just come off a $249K fundraising quarter and has more COH than Republican Lungren ($739K/$526K), who only raised $138K. At this point in the cycle Amri has outraised Lungren as well ($871K/$732K).
Add to this the facts that Obama won the district 49.3%/48.8%, Lungren only won in 2008 by 49.49%/43.93% and the voter registration advantage for the GOP has decreased from 6.6% in 2006 to near parity (38.46%/39.04%)as of the start of 2010 and we have a race on our hands.
This one will be very interesting come November.
8. NE-02 (Terry) – R+6,
Yep hard to believe that a congressional district in Nebraska could be competitive but the 2nd shall be so. Remember that Obama carried this Omaha based district 50%/49% and the makings are there for a good race. State Senator Tom White is quite an adept fundraiser for a challenger too. After a 180K December quarter he has $343K COH compared to incumbent Republican Terry’s $543K COH. Given that challengers rarely lead the COH chase this one is set for a great race in November.
9. SC-02 (Wilson) – R+9,
SC-02 will be know as the 2010 Moneybomb District! Why? because at the end of December incumbent Republican Joe “you lie” Wilson and his Democratic challenger Robert Miller have raised a breathtaking $5.5 Million between them. Wilson has $2,341,915 COH and Miller has $1,678,436 COH! To be honest Millers’ COH should by itself make this one competive.
However when you consider that Wilson was held to 53.74% in 2008 and that whilst McCain won easily 54%/45%, that is only 1% better than the neighbouring 5th, held by Democrat John Spratt and you have a barn burner in the making.
This race will be fascinating on election night – no doubt about it!
10. KS-04 (Tiahrt) – R+14,
Despite its’ heavily Republican nature (McCain won here 58%/40%) this race will be competitive in November – absolutely.
Democrat Goyle is fundraising up a storm having raised $656K as at the end of December. His closest rival – Republican Pompeo – has only raised $429K. Last quarter Goyle managed a staggering (for a Kansas Democrat) $253K for the quarter and currently has $583K COH; a fair effort to say the least. Pompeo meanwhile managed only $78K for a COH total of $318K. Republican Kelsey FWIW, despite an impressive 233K quarter, has only $40K COH!
Love to see a poll here but definitely one to watch on election night.
This second group of Districts are likely to be competitive in November but are not there yet:
AL-03 (Rogers) – R+9,
Democrat Joshua Segall had a $100K December quarter and is behind in COH by only $216K/$392K.
He ran in 2008 and kept Rogers to 46%/54% as McCain carried the District 56%/43%.
Not a friendly district for Democrats but if Segall can file some 6 figure fundraising quarters then this race could well be up there in November.
CA-45 (Bono Mack) – R+3,
Democratic candidate (and Palm Springs Mayor) Stephen Pougnet is on the cusp of a very competitive challenge to GOP incumbent Mary Bono Mack – finally a top tier candidate here.
Obama carried this district 51.5%/46.9% and the GOP registration gap has shrunk from 10% to 3.48% between 2006 and the start of this year – 38.02%/41.50% currently.
The only fly in the ointment (apart from the national political environment!) is of course fundraising. Whilst Pougnet has outraised Bono Mack in two of the last three quarters and has slightly then than half as much COH as her $402K/$893K his COH actually went backwards by 10K last quarter despite a $150K quarter. Pougnet just needs a good solid $200K March Quarter IMHO to cash him up for the stretch and make this race definitely competitive.
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart OPEN) – R+5,
With Mario Diaz-Balart bolting to run in the 21st to replace his retiring brother Lincoln this race will be one to watch.
McCain carried this one 50%/49% whilst Diaz-Balart was held to 53%. The Republican Voter registration advantage is only 3364; 137,913/134,549 as at the 2008 election. This is down from 21818 at the 21006 midterms.
Diaz-Balart had only $178K COH as at the end of December too BTW. Expect a top tier Dem to jump in here, maybe 2006 nominee Joe Garcia, and at that point this one should become competitive. The only Democrat currently running, Luis Rivera has yet to file a fundraising report having jumped in only a month or so ago.
MN-03 (Paulsen) – R+0,
Despite missing out on our preferred candidate State Sen Terri Bonoff there is every chance that this district that Obama carried 52%/46% in 2008 will be competitive. Democratic presumptive nominee Maureen Hackett only got into the race in October and self funded $103K of her $138K quarter ($129K COH). The March quarter will be telling but if as I suspect she has a really good go at fundraising up a storm this one will be competitive. The cloud on the horizon, of course, is incumbent Republican Paulsens’ $943K COH!
MN-06 (Bachmann) – R+7,
As luck would have it we have two viable candidates in this district that McCain carried 53%/45%.
Maureen Reed has 388K COH after a $208K December quarter.
Tarryl Clark (who I think will be the nominee) has yep $388K COH after a $294K December quarter. These are great numbers for both candidates. The only reason this one isn’t yet on the competitive list is batshit crazy Michelle Bachmanns’ $1 million COH!
If either Democrat can manage another $250K March quarter then this race is on for young and old despite its’ Republican bent.
OH-12 (Tiberi) – D+1,
Democratic candidate Brooks has her work cut out running against incumbent Republican Tiberi. He and his $1.2 mill COH! And his $449K December quarter haul. Brooks must we wondering what more she needs to do after her 4th quarter haul of $231K, leaving her with $328K COH – a very respectable set of numbers. Will this district that Obama carried 54%/44% be competitive in November? Dunno – but another 200K quarter will at least make Brooks (already a top tier challenger) quite viable.
Time will tell.
The third group of Districts are those that may, but are unlikely, to become competitive:
CA-48 (Campbell) – R+6,
Obama won this district 49.5%/48.6% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 22% to a still whopping 15% as at Jan 1. That stat and Republican Campbells’ $1.031M/$171K COH advantage over Democrat Krom makes it unlikely that this race will become competitive. But it may. After all Krom has raised $299K so far this cycle including a reasonable but not great $90K in the December quarter. Campbell’s $500K December quarter makes it very tough though.
CA-50 (Bilbray) – R+3,
A 60K odd December quarter does not a competitive race make, especially when the COH only increases by $10K!. Busby has been beaten twice before by the current incumbent, and unfortunately seems headed that way again. Working in her favor is the fact that Obama carried the district 51.3%/47.1% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 14% in 2006 to 7.58% (39.91%/31.33%) as at the start of this year. However this will be a what might have been IMHO.
MN-02 (Kline) – R+4,
With former Democratic State Rep Shelley Madore only jumping in at the start of January this race has yet to solidify. On the down side is the fact that McCain carried this district 50%/48%. On the upside incumbent Republican Kline has (only!) $358K COH after a modest $152K December quarter.
Wait and see but it may be a bit late in the cycle for this one to fire up.
NJ-07 (Lance) – R+3,
Yet another district where the Democratic candidate (Potosnak) has only just got into the race so it may take some time for things to play out. Obama carried this district 50%/49% and Leonard has only $347K COH (not a lot for a congressional race in New Jersey) and raised only 60K in the December quarter. Interestingly enough the Democrats have a 16K voter registration advantage here as at November 2009 – 121,553/105,943.
TX-32 (Sessions) – R+8,
A $151K 4th quarter and $114K COH should be a promising start. Unless your opponent is the head of the NRCC and has $1.075 million COH. Oh dear.
Roggio seems to be quite a credible candidate but without a monster March quarter he just isn’t going to be in a position to be competitive in November.
McCain carried this district 53%/46% too btw – red but not ruby red.
And fourthly these districts have either 3rd tier candidates or candidates whose fundraising precludes a competitive race at this stage:
CA-24 (Gallegly) – R+4,
A 15K December quarter for leading Democrat Tim Allison means this one can’t be competitive; the resources simply aren’t there. This is all the more so given that Gallegly has $836K COH to Allison’s $35K . Pity because Obama carried this one 50.5%/47.7% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined from 10% to 5.75% (41.53%/35.78%) between 2006 and the start of this year.
CA-25 (McKeon) – R+6,
Our candidate, 2008 nominee Jackie Conaway hasn’t even registered with the FEC – Game over.
Pity as Obama carried the district 49.4%/48.3% and the GOP voter reg advantage has declined to 2% over the last 3 years!
CA-26 (Dreier) – R+3,
2008 Democratic challenger Warner had a poor December quarter raising only 37K and his COH is only $123K compared to incumbent Republican Dreier’s $1.025 million! Obama won the district 51/47 and the GOP voter reg advantage has dropped from 11% to 4.5% as of the start of 2010.
Despite that the COH gap and Warners’ poor December fundraising means this one is unlikely to be competitive this November alas.
CA-44 (Calvert) – R+6,
Obama won this district 49.3%/48.6% and the GOP voter reg advantage has decreased from 15% in 2006 to 8% as at Jan 5th 2010. Competitive race right? Wrong. Democrat Hedrick who only lost in 2008 48.8/51.2 just can’t seem to crank up the fundraising. Having raised only 29K in the December quarter he now trails in the COH race $95K/$519K.
Such a shame.
FL-10 (Young) – R+1,
State Sen Charlie Justice – what a great name for a congressional candidate – is the best candidate that the Democrats have run against republican incumbent Bill Young in years and years. It is such a pity then that Justices’ fundraising is so poor – $59K last quarter and $91K COH.
This is a District that should be competitive; Obama carried it 52%/47% and the Repub voter reg advantage declined from 169,982/153,728 in 2006 to 170,749/164,400 in 2008.
Alas but for that poor fundraising.
FL-12 (Putnam OPEN) – R+6,
Democrat Lori Edwards won’t make this a competitive election with a $26K December quarter ($60K COH). This is all the more so given that presumptive Republican nominee Dennis Ross has $273K COH as at the end of December after an admittedly poor December quarter; raising only $76K himself.
This is a pity given that McCain only carried the District 50/49 and the Democratic voter reg advantage INCREASED from 2006 – 2008 from 153,189/166,794 to 164,780/192,958. WOW
As an open seat this one will almost certainly be a what might have been in November unless Edwards can seriously step up her fundraising.
FL-15 (Posey) – R+6,
The Democratic candidate Shannon Roberts has not filed a fundraising report despite filing to run over a year ago. Game over.
Pity as this 51%/48% McCain district, with it s’ repidly decreasing GOP voter reg advantage (189,872/158,363 – 2006 199,669/183,100 – 2008) should really have been competitive. Oh well.
IL-06 (Roskam) – R+0,
The race has not yet really taken shape in this district that Obama carried 56%/43%. Democratic challenger Ben Lowe filed for the race halfway through November and raised a scant $14K. Republican incumbent Roskam on the other hand after a $350K December quarter is sitting on $547K.
We really won’t know whether this will be competitive or not until after the March fundraising filings come in. I suspect it won’t as both parties will be focused on tussles in the 10th, 11th and 14th.
Maybe in 2012.
IL-13 (Biggert) – R+1,
2008 Democratic nominee Harper is back in 2010 in this district that Obama carried 54%/44%.
Unfortunately a $42K December quarter ($90K COH) does not cut the mustard against Republican incumbent Biggert who had a $142K December quarter ($637K COH).
Harper is a good, credible candidate who kept Biggert to 53% in 2008. Unless he has a monster March quarter this one just isn’t going to be competitive in November.
IL-16 (Manzullo) – R+2,
Whilst Obama carried this district 53%/46% this one only just scraped in as a potentially competitive race. And it won’t be with Democrat Gaulrapp raising a scant $14K ($7K COH) in the December quarter. Manzullo raised $150K ($355K COH) in the same period.
IA-04 (Latham) – R+0,
This race is really still just coming together. However that Democrat Maske managed to fundraise only $12K in the last 2 months of 2009 I think we can safely predict another cakewalk for Republican Latham in this district that Obama won 53%/46%. BTW as at Feb 1st the Democrats had a 8000 voter registration advantage 126503/118484.
Incumbent Republican McCotter has been on Democratic target lists for years in this 54%/45% Obama district. He was even held to 51% in 2008. Despite this the Democrats have always failed to get a top tier opponent against him. Will 2010 be the year? It is hard to tell honestly but i doubt it. When Democrat Mosher declared at the start of 2009 she struck me (and the party) as being at best 2nd tier.
And this turns out to be the likely case with Mosher raising only $37K in the December quarter ($44K COH) compared to McCotters’ $118K December quarter ($579K) COH. Lets see what the March quarter reports bring but don’t hold your breath.
OH-14 (LaTourette) – R+3,
With McCain just shading Obama by less than 1% this District should be competitive. But it is unlikely. Whilst 2008 Democratic candidate O’Neill is back for another shot he did get thumped by alomost 20% in 2008. The other Democrat in the race – Greene – hasn’t even registered with the FEC to fundraise despite being in the race since November. Whilst LaTourette only has a modest $447K COH as at the end of November this race is highly unlikely to be a show stopper.
VA-10 (Wolf) – R+2,
Another perennial Democratic target sees no less than 4 Democrats running here in 2010. And it is no wonder as Obama carried the district 53%/46% and this part of Virginia is rapidly bluing. Incumbent Republican Wolf has nothing to fear here though, as none of his putative opponents have more than $6K COH as at the end of December compared to Wolfs’ $346K COH. A really disappointing miss for team blue.
WI-01 (Ryan) – R+2,
Democratic challenger Garin has $546 COH as at the end of December; incumbent Republican Ryan has $1.565 million. Game over in this 51%/47% Obama district.
The last group of Districts are those that at this stage do not seem likely to competitive.
as we do not have declared Democratic candidates as yet!
FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) – R+3,
MI-04 (Camp) – R+3,
MI-06 (Upton) – R+0,
MI-08 (Rogers) – R+2,
NJ-02 (LoBiondo) – D+1,
NY-03 (King) – R+4,
VA-04 (Forbes) – R+4,
WI-06 (Petri) – R+4,
So in summary:
10 competitive races.
6 races that should become competitive.
5 races that may become competitive.
15 races that should be competitive but are highly unlikely to be so.
8 races that should be potentially become competitive but won’t be unless we find a candidate.
Not a particularly pretty scenario for Democrats but not nearly as terrible as the GOP and the traditional media would have you believe.
On to November!
Loading ...Candidate filing rolls on – KY,WV & IN
Now that the dust has settled on the Massachusetts Senate Special (ugh) it is time to turn our minds back to candidate filing.
Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.
Candidate filing has closed in Kentucky and West Virginia with a full slate for both parties (boring but true)!
For the Democrats:
KY-01 (Whitfield) – R+15,
KY-02 (Guthrie) – R+15,
KY-04 (Davis) – R+14,
KY-05 (Rogers) – R+15,
WV-02 (Capito) – R+8,
And for the GOP:
KY-03 (Yarmuth) – D+2,
KY-06 (Chandler) – R+9,
WV-01 (Mollohan) – R+9,
WV-03 (Rahall) – R+6,
So for those of us that take notice of these things the progressive totals in states where candidate filing has closed is 6 Unopposed GOP House Reps and 2 unopposed Democratic House Reps.
And finally candidate filing season is open in Indiana. If you assume that all House incumbents recontest then as of the posting of this diary we have candidates in every district except the 3rd & 6th and the GOP every district but the 7th.
The next two states up after that are New Mexico and Ohio.
Texas write in Candidates needed
Texas candidate filing has now closed.
As you may already be aware there are a number of uncontested Republican Congresscritters.
And that sucks – big time.
Below the fold to see exactly what you (if you live in Texas) can do about it.
(Cross posted here, there and everywhere)
As is the case every election cycle there are a number of Republican Congressmen unopposed as at the end of candidate filings.
This year there are 7, more than any other in recent times!
They are as follows:
TX-01 (Gohmert) – R+21,
TX-02 (Poe) – R+13,
TX-07 (Culberson) – R+13,
TX-08 (Brady) – R+25,
TX-13 (Thornberry) – R+29,
TX-24 (Marchant) – R+11,
TX-31 (Carter) – R+14,
This is unfortunate to say the least.
However given the ludicrously easy ballot laws in Texas being a write in candidate is as easy as submitting 500 signatures of registered voters in your congressional district of choice and voila – away you go. Seems too easy? Well it is that easy!
So come on who has the cojones to take on a Republican on their home turf, thus inhibiting their ability to lend an assist to Repubs in close races?
Your thoughts?