However given the ludicrously easy ballot laws in Texas being a write in candidate is as easy as submitting 500 signatures of registered voters in your congressional district of choice and voila – away you go. Seems too easy? Well it is that easy!
So come on who has the cojones to take on a Republican on their home turf, thus inhibiting their ability to lend an assist to Repubs in close races?
(Cross posted at Swing State Project, MyDD and Open Left)
The Texas Congressional House delegation is currently split 20/12 in favor of the GOP.
All incumbents have refiled for all 32 Districts.
So onto challenger filings.
First the bad news and there is no way to sugarcoat this – The GOP have a full slate, many with multiple candidates. Yep all 12 Dem held Districts have GOP candidates:
One potential snafu is that it seems that Grier Raggio is not listed as filed in TX-32. Given that there were media stories about him filing on December 30th I expect that he will bob up on the TX Dems list in the next day or two. There are also 2 Dem candidates listed without a race so we will see where they end up too.
A disappointing but not surprising effort from the Texas Democratic Party. Whilst write-in candidates are possible this is highly unlikely if past cycles are any judge.
How can we expect to win the Governors race when 1/3rd of Republican Texan Congresscritters will not have a Democrat running against them in November?
** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***
Oh boy, the wingnut is strong in these folks. Dave Weigel reports that Rep. Bill Posey (R-FL), (in)famous for his birther bill requiring documentation that a candidate for President was born in the U.S., has picked up four more co-sponsors, all Republicans (of course). They are:
Rep. Bob Goodlatte (VA-06) had already signed on last month. More after the fold….
Posey says those Congressmen came to him to co-sponsor the bill, that it wasn’t him begging them to do so. And then he launched into an invective against Rachel Maddow.
You may recall that [Stephen] Colbert used the “F” word to describe on national TV a relationship my grandmother, bless her heart, deceased grandmother, must have had with an alligator to come up with the likes of me. [Keith] Olbermann named me the Worst Person in the World and angry woman Rachel Maddow has just trashed me on every show, and asked me to come on her show. You know, I won’t do it cause she’s got a lousy, low rated show, and I don’t want to give her the ratings, quite frankly. I’d love to go on and debate her and set the record straight.
Just so y’all remember, here‘s what Colbert had to say about Bill Posey.
And when Posey got upset at Colbert for doing so, he just brought upon more pain to himself with Colbert’s response.
Now, most of these people sit in VERY Republican districts where you probably have a significant chunk of the population that actually believe Obama was not really born here. Per SSP’s presidential vote by CD, a whopping 72% of Neugebauer’s district voted for McCain, making it the 9th MOST Republican district in the country, in terms of the vote share Obama got. So forget about defeating Neugebauer at the polls with his co-sponsorship, he might gain support from his constituents for doing this. Sad, but true.
And Goodlatte (57%), Carter (58%), and Culberson (58%) also come from districts McCain easily won by double digits. But Bill Posey himself may be in for a world of hurt, and should be. McCain only beat Obama 51%-48% in Posey’s own FL-15 district. Posey himself won 53%-42% over underfunded Democrat Dr. Stephen Blythe, outspending him by over an 8:1 margin. With 48% of the district voting for Obama, I’m sure we could get enough of them upset at Posey for pulling this kind of shit to get them to the polls. (Anyone know if Blythe wants to run again, or if there’s another Democrat waiting in the wings?)
What’s more, out here in California, Obama narrowly won Campbell’s district, 49.47% to 48.72%. (Campbell himself easily won against Democrat Steve Young the last three elections.) Irvine City Councilwoman Beth Krom has announced she’s running against Campbell, as Young is moving over to try his hand at winning the state assembly seat.
Ridicule is well deserved for these Republicans, for now. But if we want to send a message, the best way would be kicking the vulnerable ones out of Congress at the ballot box in 2010. Wanna repudiate the birthers? Send Posey and Campbell packing next year.
The Houston Chronicle has a couple of new polls out today by Zogby International (10/22-24, likely voters). Let’s have a look.
TX-07:
Michael Skelly (D): 41
John Culberson (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±4.9%)
TX-22:
Nick Lampson (D-inc): 36
Pete Olson (R): 53
(MoE: ±4.9%)
The 7th CD poll seems reasonable enough — Skelly is running a strong race, but this is a very tough (R+16) district. The numbers from the Lampson race, though, seem a bit hard to believe. It’s possible that Zogby has a bad sample here (this is Zogby we’re talking about, after all), and the 22nd is one of the fastest-growing districts in the nation. A recent Benenson Strategy Group poll had Lampson and Olson tied at 42% each, an improvement over a July internal that had Lampson behind by 45-37. That’s still well below any kind of comfort threshold, so I’m having a hard time feeling good about this one.
Over in the 7th, the Skelly campaign also released a new internal poll of their own.
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (10/22-23, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):
Michael Skelly (D): 44 (37)
John Culberson (R-inc): 49 (44)
Drew Parks: 3 (n/a)
Undecided: 4 (13)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Skelly has gained quite a bit of ground since the start of his campaign, but this one looks to be a tough nut to crack, indeed. The full polling memo is available below the fold.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/7-8, likely voters):
Michael Skelly (D): 40
John Culberson (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±5%)
These are pretty remarkable numbers for a Democrat in this R+16 district (the 36th-most Republican district in the nation) that delivered 38 and 28-point wins to Bush in 2000 and 2004, respectively. They’re also pretty similar to a GQR poll from last month that showed Skelly trailing Culberson by 37-44.
Skelly has run a flawless campaign, and these numbers prove not only that he’s gaining traction, but that the district is continuing to trend just a bit bluer. Check out the Presidential numbers: McCain is only leading Obama by 51-39 in this affluent suburban Houston district. That’s a far, far cry from the kinds of margins that Bush racked up here over his past two elections.
These are some nice numbers for Michael Skelly, whose summer ad campaign has clearly bought him some momentum against unaccomplished GOP Rep. John Culberson in this R+15.6 (but Dem-trending) suburban Houston district.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but we’re diggin’ this trend.
Democrat Michael Skelly has launched his first ad of the campaign against Republican incumbent John Culberson. The ad will air on both broadcast and cable. I think it’s a nice introduction. Check it out:
I’m going to be highlighting House and Senate races around the country for the Bruin Democrats on our blog, as most of the presidential stuff is over with, so they can become SSP-like junkies too. 🙂 I’ll probably make about 2-3 posts per week over there, each time focusing on a specific seat and filling them in on the background of the district and the dynamics in play. Unlike us junkies here, they’re not going to be anywhere as familiar with who the people are, so I’ve got to start from the beginning. A 1Q report? What’s that?
These posts are written as a primer so that someone with absolutely no prior knowledge about the seat or who the incumbent or challenger is can come away with a good idea of what’s going on, and maybe even send some dollars over to the Democrat’s campaign, if they feel compelled enough to do so.
So I figured I’d post what I wrote over there on SSP, since this is a site for us Congressional race junkies, after all. 🙂 Y’all probably know all this stuff already, but I hope you guys still find it entertaining and informative. The original post, below the fold.
So I figured that with most of the action over in California, I’d turn to the House and Senate races around the country to highlight some interesting races. There will be a quiz in November, so take notes, LOL. I’ve already highlighted races in IL-14, CA-12, LA-06, NY-13, and MS-01, plus a look at some California House races and some key Senate races, which I will periodically update. Now, before anonymous Republicans try to spam the comments section, the races that I’ll be highlighting do not necessarily mean I’m guaranteeing a Democratic victory in those places. Many of these places are going to be Republican strongholds. This is meant to provide a window into what’s happening all over our country as we head towards November, to get other Bruin Democrats reading this more familiar and aware with what’s happening on the ground in other places. In 2006, as we celebrated taking back the House with a big scorecard marking down congressional districts one by one as they flipped, most of us didn’t know who the Democrats that won even were, or the Republicans that they defeated. Hopefully these posts will make it more personal come November. 🙂
That said, let’s look at a House race deep in the heart of Texas, in its 7th district. Rep. John Culberson (R) is the current representative, having served there since 2001. He’s been the source of some comedy gold on the blogs this week for getting totally smacked down by Rep. David Obey (D-WI) on the House floor. If you’re gonna rail against a bill, you might want to read it first to know what you’re talking about. Oops. Oh, we had some fun with him!
Now that’s some serious pwnage.
This year, Culberson is facing a serious challenge from an energy executive. What’s that, you say? A Democratic energy executive? Well, yes, an alternative energy executive. His name is Michael Skelly, and he’s the former chief development officer of Horizon Wind Energy. Now here’s the amazing thing.
Businessman Michael Skelly is positioned to be at the top of the Democratic fundraising list for the year’s first quarter, according to a Democratic operative, raising about $750,000 from individual donors without even tapping into his substantial personal wealth. Another Democratic operative said it could be the “best first quarter ever” for any House Democrat in his first filing period.
Skelly has already handily outdistanced Culberson in fundraising – rare for a challenger – banking more than $402,000 in mid-February, according to his latest FEC filing.
Skelly’s incredible fundraising is getting both local and national blog attention. By the end of the 1st quarter (January – March 2008), Skelly had 246% more cash on hand than Culberson. Here’s the local ABC affiliate’s report on the race.
This isn’t too far off from an earlier poll which showed Culberson up by 52-33. This is a deep red district — with a PVI of R+15.6, it’s about on par with Nick Lampson’s TX-22. Skelly has turned some heads by raising a reported $750,000 in the first quarter of 2008, but he definitely still has an uphill climb here.
Michael Skelly made news recently by reporting extremely robust fundraising for a first time Democratic challenger in a traditionally Republican district. A high dollar DC pollster surveyed the race back in February and found him trailing incumbent John Culberson 52 to 33, with 16% undecided. After voters heard ‘positive bios’ for both candidates, that became a tie at 44. With the recent flurry of news on Skelly’s fundraising, I thought I’d poll the race and see if there had been movement. Skelly’s campaign has been out blockwalking, and I have noticed many online ads, but I don’t think they have done any traditional advertising at this point.
My poll asked a series of questions about possible presidential matchups, the Senate race and finally the CD7 race. I also asked about the 2004 Bush/Kerry vote, which came back 64/36 for Bush, in line with the actual results for the district. Of the presidential matchups, Obama did slightly better than Clinton against McCain, but the Republican held a large lead in both matchups.
In the CD7 race, I identified each candidate’s party, which may explain the unexpectedly low undecided response. Only 4% said they were undecided, with Culberson receiving 57% to Skelly’s 39%. On the other hand, there was a significant amount of mixed-party support in various forms. Some went with Cornyn and Skelly, others with Noriega and Culberson, some that went Democratic for president but Republican for the lower ticket races and some that went McCain, Noriega and Skelly. Less than half supported all three Republicans, though that is probably the best spin for the Democrats to come out of this poll. Enough voters are willing to consider a non-Republican, but a Democratic candidate would need flawless execution and a little luck.
For CD7, the older the voter, the more likely the support for Culberson. Voters under 40 were +8 for Culberson, 40-59 were +18 and 60+ were +23. There was no gender gap, as Culberson got the same percentage from both men and women. Non-white percentages are too small to provide meaningful crosstabs, but Skelly does lead Culberson here.
For the Senate race, Cornyn leads Noriega 58 to 39 in the district. Despite the similar results, about 6% of Cornyn’s support went with Skelly, and a similar amount of Culberson’s support went with Noriega. In general, the Noriega/Culberson flippers have a higher percentage of older women than average, and the Cornyn/Skelly flippers have a higher percentage of men than average, not concentrated in any one age group.