Author: IVR Polls

The Eric Roberson campaign commissioned a poll of CD32. As with earlier polls of CD7 and CD10, the population sampled was prior voters, and results were weighted to match historical turnout. These polls are designed to be apples-to-apples comparisons with earlier elections, looking at how much the district has shifted rather than projecting new turnout patterns. As with the other Congressional polls, I first asked about McCain v Obama, then Cornyn v Noriega and then the Congressional matchup.  While there was minor variation in the responses, margins were identical in all three races.

I find a nine point lead for Pete Sessions and the other Republicans, down from a fifteen point margin in the 2006 election. Three percent said they would vote third party or not vote, in line with the 2.3% that a Libertarian candidate received in 2006. Only one percent said they were undecided in the Congressional race, while the Presidential and Senate races had about 4% undecided.

Questions were posed in this format:

In the 32nd District Congressional race, the candidates are Republican Pete Sessions and Democrat Eric Roberson

If you would vote for Republican Pete Sessions, press 1

If you would vote for Democrat Eric Roberson, press 2

If you would vote for another candidate, or if you would not vote, press 3

If you are undecided, press 4

The order of candidate names and choices is randomized. As of last week, I have changed my format to add the Libertarian candidate’s name, but this poll was conducted prior to that change.

Additional questions requested by the Roberson campaign were asked after the three matchup questions so that there would be no bias. Sessions was viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 39%, with the remainder neutral. Roberson’s name recognition was low, even among those who supported him. Top issue was the Economy, followed by the War.

Illegal Immigration, Change and Healthcare also received support at lower levels.

Sessions 52%

Roberson 43%

Third party/no vote 3%

Undecided 1%

Excluding third party/no vote

Sessions 54%

Roberson 45%

Undecided 1%

581 likely voters polled 6/4/2008, margin of error 4.1%

Other recent Texas polls for comparison

CD10, June 2 – McCaul 52% – Doherty 46%

CD7, April 8 – Culberson 57% – Skelly 39%

In 2004, George Bush took 62% of the vote in Texas’ 10th Congressional District. In 2006, Michael McCaul was held to 55% by a poorly funded Democrat and a relatively well funded Libertarian. My own polling a week before the election found 7% undecided, but the challengers had no funds to close the deal and undecided stayed with the incumbent. As a disclaimer, and an illustration of the funding issue, I did $90 in robocalls for the challenger, Ted Ankrum, in the closing days.

For the 2008 race, in polling on June 2, 528 likely voters gave McCaul a 5.4% lead over Democratic challenger Larry Joe Doherty. McCaul received 51.7% to Doherty’s 46.3%, with 2.0% undecided.

TX-10 is described as a ‘barbell district’ due to having a large chunk of the district in Travis County (Austin), a large chunk in Harris County (Houston) and a thin strip of highway frontage in between. In 2006, Harris went 71-26 for McCaul and Travis went 56-38 for Ankrum. In this poll, McCaul takes Harris 63-33 and Doherty takes Travis by the same 63-33. Travis is the slightly larger end of the TX-10 barbell, but the ‘bar’ in between went 70-30 for McCaul, resulting in a McCaul lead.

Of note, I also polled Obama-McCain and Cornyn-Noriega in this district and found those races to be more favorable to the other Republicans than they are to McCaul. Cornyn leads Noriega 54-44 and McCain leads Obama 55-41. Statewide, my past results have been more in line with Baselice than SurveyUSA or Rasmussen on these races, but I do not have current statewide numbers to report.

Historically, turnout in this district doesn’t include large numbers of Latinos or African-Americans. In this poll, both groups went with Doherty, Latinos by 2-1 and African-Americans by 7-1. If Obama at the top of the ticket increases African-American general election turnout as he has in the primary, and these additional voters follow through on the down-ballot races, Doherty could close the gap even further. Increased Latino turnout in the primary was mainly a reflection of Clinton’s popularity, but there is a possibility that Noriega could also increase Latino turnout for the general, further benefitting Doherty.

There is no significant gender gap in these results, but age is a factor. Voters under 40 go with the Democrat in each race. Voters from 40-59 go with the Republican by small margins. Voters over 60 go Republican in all cases, but margin is much larger in races for President and Senator.

528 likely voters polled 6/2/2008, margin of error 4.3%

 

Michael Skelly made news recently by reporting extremely robust fundraising for a first time Democratic challenger in a traditionally Republican district. A high dollar DC pollster surveyed the race back in February and found him trailing incumbent John Culberson 52 to 33, with 16% undecided. After voters heard ‘positive bios’ for both candidates, that became a tie at 44. With the recent flurry of news on Skelly’s fundraising, I thought I’d poll the race and see if there had been movement. Skelly’s campaign has been out blockwalking, and I have noticed many online ads, but I don’t think they have done any traditional advertising at this point.

My poll asked a series of questions about possible presidential matchups, the Senate race and finally the CD7 race. I also asked about the 2004 Bush/Kerry vote, which came back 64/36 for Bush, in line with the actual results for the district. Of the presidential matchups, Obama did slightly better than Clinton against McCain, but the Republican held a large lead in both matchups.

In the CD7 race, I identified each candidate’s party, which may explain the unexpectedly low undecided response. Only 4% said they were undecided, with Culberson receiving 57% to Skelly’s 39%. On the other hand, there was a significant amount of mixed-party support in various forms. Some went with Cornyn and Skelly, others with Noriega and Culberson, some that went Democratic for president but Republican for the lower ticket races and some that went McCain, Noriega and Skelly. Less than half supported all three Republicans, though that is probably the best spin for the Democrats to come out of this poll. Enough voters are willing to consider a non-Republican, but a Democratic candidate would need flawless execution and a little luck.

For CD7, the older the voter, the more likely the support for Culberson. Voters under 40 were +8 for Culberson, 40-59 were +18 and 60+ were +23. There was no gender gap, as Culberson got the same percentage from both men and women. Non-white percentages are too small to provide meaningful crosstabs, but Skelly does lead Culberson here.

For the Senate race, Cornyn leads Noriega 58 to 39 in the district. Despite the similar results, about 6% of Cornyn’s support went with Skelly, and a similar amount of Culberson’s support went with Noriega. In general, the Noriega/Culberson flippers have a higher percentage of older women than average, and the Cornyn/Skelly flippers have a higher percentage of men than average, not concentrated in any one age group.

536 polled 4/8/08, Margin of error 4.2%

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