As we patiently await draft Californian congressional maps to be released later this year it is appropriate to check out the trends in voter registration. Given that the boundaries will inevitably change; comparisons by County rather than by CD are illuminating to say the least.
Below the fold for a comparison between October 2006 and October 2010 (midterm to midterm).
| COUNTY | CURRENT CD/S | DEM 2006 REG | REP 2006 REG | GAP | DEM 2010 REG | REP 2010 REG | GAP | TREND | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alameda | 9,10,11,13 | 55.22% | 17.52% | D+37.70% | 56.81% | 15.71% | D+41.10% | D+3.40% | ||
| Alpine | 3 | 35.74% | 34.97% | D+0.77% | 38.2% | 33.42% | D+4.78% | D+4.01% | ||
| Amador | 3 | 34.91% | 46.46% | R+11.55% | 33.14% | 45.66% | R+12.52% | R+0.97% | ||
| Butte | 2,4 | 34.57% | 41.13% | R+6.56% | 34.71% | 39.23% | R+4.52% | D+2.04% | ||
| Calaveras | 3 | 33.94% | 44.79% | R+10.85% | 32.32% | 42.88% | R+10.56% | D+0.29% | ||
| Colusa | 2 | 35.58% | 46.5% | R+10.92% | 35.12% | 46.15% | R+11.03% | R+0.11% | ||
| Contra Costa | 7,10,11 | 48.12% | 29.61% | D+18.51% | 49.8% | 26.27% | D+23.53% | D+5.02% | ||
| Del Norte | 1 | 36.52% | 39.18% | R+2.66% | 36.65% | 37.55% | R+0.90% | D+1.76% | ||
| El Dorado | 4 | 30.71% | 46.51% | R+15.80% | 30.19% | 44.92% | R+14.73% | D+1.07% | ||
| Fresno | 18,19,20,21 | 39.46% | 45.29% | R+5.84% | 40.99% | 40.96% | D+0.03% | D+5.87% | ||
| Glenn | 2 | 32.54% | 47.33% | R+14.79% | 31.25% | 45.81% | R+14.56% | D+0.23% | ||
| Humboldt | 1 | 41.35% | 28.91% | D+12.44% | 42.59% | 26.83% | D+15.76% | D+3.32% | ||
| Imperial | 51 | 55.26% | 26.34% | D+28.92% | 51.68% | 26.66% | D+25.02% | R+3.90% | ||
| Inyo | 25 | 32.14% | 45.14% | R+13% | 32.28% | 44.3% | R+12.02% | D+0.98% | ||
| Kern | 20,22 | 35.7% | 47.4% | R+11.7% | 35.31% | 44.09% | R+8.78% | D+2.92% | ||
| Kings | 20 | 37.89% | 46.83% | R+8.94% | 36.15% | 45.36% | R+9.26% | R+0.32% | ||
| Lake | 1 | 43.29% | 32.03% | D+10.26% | 42.96% | 29.34% | D+13.62% | D+3.36% | ||
| Lassen | 4 | 28.93% | 46.62% | R+17.69% | 26.85% | 47.82% | R+20.97% | R+3.28% | ||
| Los Angeles | 22,25 – 39,42,46 | 49.74% | 27.02% | D+22.72% | 51.4% | 23.58% | D+27.82% | D+5.10% | ||
| Madera | 18,19 | 33.7% | 49.21% | R+15.51% | 35.28% | 45.08% | R+9.8% | D+5.71% | ||
| Marin | 6 | 51.73% | 22.44% | D+29.29% | 54.61% | 19.32% | D+35.29% | D+6.00% | ||
| Mariposa | 19 | 32.3% | 46.81% | R+14.51% | 31.07% | 44.92% | R+13.85% | D+0.66% | ||
| Mendocino | 1 | 46.27% | 24.86% | D+21.41% | 47.2% | 22.48% | D+24.72% | D+3.31% | ||
| Merced | 18 | 45.01% | 41.03% | D+3.98% | 46.27% | 34.74% | D+11.53% | D+7.55% | ||
| Modoc | 4 | 30.22% | 49.34% | R+19.12% | 26.76% | 49.24% | R+22.28% | R+3.16% | ||
| Mono | 25 | 31.1% | 38.64% | R+7.54% | 32.37% | 36.91% | R+4.54% | D+3.00% | ||
| Monterey | 17 | 48.23% | 30.8% | D+17.43% | 53.45% | 25.52% | D+27.93% | D+10.50% | ||
| Napa | 1 | 46.08% | 31.36% | D+14.72% | 47.2% | 27.21% | D+19.99% | D+5.27% | ||
| Nevada | 4 | 32.2% | 42.96% | R+10.76% | 33.66% | 40.04% | R+6.38% | D+4.38% | ||
| Orange | 40,42,44,46,47,48 | 30.07% | 47.9% | R+17.83% | 31.92% | 43.18% | R+11.26% | D+6.57% | ||
| Placer | 4 | 28.67% | 51.43% | R+22.76% | 28.89% | 48.23% | R+19.34% | D+3.42% | ||
| Plumas | 4 | 33.36% | 43.8% | R+10.44% | 32.37% | 43.16% | R+10.79% | R+0.35% | ||
| Riverside | 41,44,45,49 | 34.42% | 45.7% | R+11.28% | 36.29% | 41.87% | R+5.58% | D+5.70% | ||
| Sacramento | 3,4,5,10 | 42.61% | 34.54% | D+8.07% | 43.93% | 33.76% | D+10.17% | D+2.10% | ||
| San Benito | 17 | 45.05% | 33.86% | D+11.19% | 48.18% | 30.34% | D+17.84% | D+6.65% | ||
| San Bernardino | 25,26,41,42,43 | 37.59% | 42.41% | R+4.82% | 39.01% | 38.46% | D+0.55% | D+5.37% | ||
| San Diego | 49,50,51,52,53 | 34.16% | 39.52% | R+5.36% | 35.92% | 36.27% | R+0.35% | D+5.01% | ||
| San Francisco | 8,12 | 54.43% | 10.92% | D+43.51% | 56.26% | 9.53% | D+46.73% | D+3.22% | ||
| San Joaquin | 11,18 | 42.43% | 40.6% | D+1.83% | 42.66% | 38.96% | D+3.70% | D+1.87% | ||
| San Luis Obispo | 22,23 | 35.08% | 41.84% | R+6.76% | 34.96% | 39.89% | R+4.93% | D+2.83% | ||
| San Mateo | 12,14 | 49.42% | 24.46% | D+24.96% | 51.77% | 20.76% | D+31.01% | D+6.05% | ||
| Santa Barbara | 23,24 | 40.39% | 35.53% | D+4.86% | 42.37% | 32.14% | D+10.23% | D+5.37% | ||
| Santa Clara | 11,14, 15,16 | 44.9% | 26.84% | D+18.06% | 45.88% | 23.89% | D+21.99% | D+3.93% | ||
| Santa Cruz | 14,17 | 53.04% | 20.26% | D+32.78% | 54.83% | 17.72% | D+37.11% | D+4.33% | ||
| Shasta | 2 | 30.11% | 49.18% | R+19.07% | 28.44% | 47.25% | R+18.81% | D+0.26% | ||
| Sierra | 4 | 31.1% | 42.81% | R+11.71% | 29.11% | 42.6% | R+13.49% | R+1.78% | ||
| Siskiyou | 2 | 35.5% | 42.3% | R+6.80% | 33.86% | 40.96% | R+7.10% | R+0.30% | ||
| Solano | 3,7,10 | 48.61% | 29.12% | D+19.49% | 49.53% | 26.16% | D+23.37% | D+3.88% | ||
| Sonoma | 1,6 | 50.17% | 25.71% | D+24.46% | 52.13% | 22.74% | D+29.39% | D+4.93% | ||
| Stanislaus | 18,19 | 40.23% | 42.24% | R+2.01% | 43.38% | 36.78% | D+6.60% | D+8.61% | ||
| Sutter | 2 | 32.26% | 49.51% | R+17.25% | 33.38% | 46.28% | R+12.90% | D+4.35% | ||
| Tehama | 2 | 33.3% | 45.3% | R+12.00% | 31.43% | 44.33% | R+12.90% | D+0.90% | ||
| Trinity | 2 | 35.94% | 39.07% | R+3.13% | 35.46% | 35.54% | R+0.08% | D+3.05% | ||
| Tulare | 21 | 34.25% | 48.03% | R+13.78% | 34.54% | 45.49% | R+10.95% | D+2.83% | ||
| Tuolumne | 19 | 36.27% | 43.73% | R+7.46% | 33.42% | 42.63% | R+9.21% | R+1.75% | ||
| Ventura | 23,24 | 38.07% | 39.83% | R+1.76% | 39.76% | 36.97% | D+2.79% | D+4.55% | ||
| Yolo | 1,2 | 46.17% | 27.53% | D+18.64% | 47.85% | 24.64% | D+23.21% | D+4.57% | ||
| Yuba | 2 | 33.96% | 42.52% | R+8.56% | 33.43% | 40.04% | R+6.61% | D+1.95% |
Some observations:
In 2006 the Dems had a majority of registered voters in 6 counties, the Repubs in 1. In 2010 the numbers are 9 and 0 respectively.
In 2006 there were more Dems than Repubs in 23/58 Counties, in 2010 this has increased to 27/58.
Only 10 counties trended Repub between 2006-2010, 48 trended Dem. Of the 10 counties that trended Repub 7 of them are in the 2nd,3rd or 4th CD’s.
The biggest improvement between 2006 & 2010 came for the Repubs in Imperial at 3.90% and for the Dems it was in Monterey at 10.5%. No less than 24 counties improved for the Dems by more than Imperial did for the Repubs.
Repubs have a more than 10 point registration lead in 17 counties, Dems have the same in 21.
In four counties the voter reg gap is less than 200 voters!
Trinty – 6! (R)
Alpine – 35 (D)
Del Norte – 112 (R)
Fresno – 161 (D)
All of these Counties trended Dem between 2006 & 2010.
So what does this all mean?
As others have discussed at great length the future for the Republicans in California looks bleak. The areas of California that are trending Repub are almost entirely small inland counties with declining or very slowing growing populations. And whilst the Repubs still maintain sizable voter reg buffers in large counties like Orange and Riverside these counties are rapidly blueing.
For us Dems the news is looking great for obvious reasons. I expect by the 2012 General Election that the GOP will comprise less than 30% of registered voters in CA and that the Dems will be at least 45% – a huge 15%+ gap. Currently the respective numbers are 44/31.
attempted nonpartisan maps of the San Diego seat draw Duncan Hunter into an area Obama won in the mid-50’s. That county is near even right now.
my posts here to redistricting stuff but voter registration is truely fascinating stuff. Just a few comments.
Since Motor voter came in and all these internet forms came about we have seen a huge decline in CA (and other states) in party registration. The number of indies or others or no stated party has increased. In 1970 there were only 4% of CA voteres who did register either democrat or republican and now the number is nearly 24%. These forms do not require you to check the party box so they are left unchecked and the same holds for race. Many more voters now no longer check the race box.
I’ve said before that the Reeps have become completely uncompetitive at the state level, but at this rate they’re going to disappear everywhere except for a few overwhelmingly white rural counties. If you look at the counties where the Dems picked up 5 points or more, it’s…pretty much everywhere.
Bay area:
Contra Costa
Marin
Napa
San Mateo
That was a blue fortress to begin with.
Central valley:
Fresno
Madera
Merced
Stanislaus
These 4 are contiguous and include 2 of the 5 biggest counties. Kern and already-blue Sacramento and San Joaquin are turning blue at slower rates.
Central coast/miscellaneous:
Monterey
San Benito
Most of Monterey’s population is in the Salinas area. (I don’t know why it favors Dems much more than other ag-dominated areas do. It may just be water policy.)
Coastal SoCal:
Los Angeles
Orange
San Diego
Santa Barbara
That’s all of ’em except for Ventura which barely missed the cut at 4.55%. These four counties have 40-50% of the state’s population.
inland EMPIRE:
Riverside
San Bernardino
The empire crumbles and turns blue.
The GOP is getting crushed in CA. Maybe they can lend some Democrats to Texas :p
at numbers like this and think of how this state alone can help repair a lot of the damage in that Democrats wil feel from other states.
I wonder, though, has there been any sort of active voter registration drive in recent years? There’s always some effort, but I’m talking about the sort of centralized, well funded operation for certain areas, if not the entire state, that drive these numbers. If not, you have to wonder if there are even more potential Democrats that might come out of the wood work. I won’t try to guess what the congressional districts will look like in 2012, but as long as the roughly seven million unregistered voters aren’t clustered in deeply blue districts and aren’t right-leaning voters, perhaps we can make the state’s delegation even more Democratic.
Increase of D registration in a number of counties would have close to zero effect on the districts since they are so heavily D already.
I note the following San Joaquin Valley counties, N to S
West Valley[CD11, 18, 20] Probably the most critical area
San Joaquin D+1.87[CD11]
Stanislaus D+8.61
Merced D+7.55
Fresno D+5.87
Kings R+.32
Kern D+2.92
East Valley/Sierra Foothills[CD19,CD21]
El dorado D1.07
Amador R.97
Calaveras D.29
Tuolumne R1.75
Mariposa D.66
Madera D5.71
TulareD2.83
San Joaquin D increase of 1.87 is anaemic. Unless this is changed, it will remain tossup or lean D
The Foothill counties[CD19] remain solidly R. If combined with the opposite East Valley counties, the result will be likely R. If the districts march down the valley in two columns, East Valley remains safe R, while the eastern districts become lean or tossup, with a definite trend line D. When you get to Kings and Kern[CD22], any district, unless gerrymandered to separate out heavily Hispanic areas, would be safe R.
Coastal counties San Luis Obispo[D2.83] and Santa Barabara[CD23][D5.37], if combined would result in a likely D district, trending [because of the City of Santa Barbara] heavily D. The 2 counities have allmost enough people for a CD.
The Imperial [R3.90] which, in my opinion, would be excised out of the San Diego County Districts seems to be trending R. This is unfortunate because it would be a signiifcant factor, otherwise, in blueing a eastern Riverside district.
The Inland Empire[CD49, 43-5, possibly 42] districts San Bernardinao and Riverside, are bluing heavily, indicating that new districts created there would be more D than in 2000. These counties also, are probably a couple of the fastest incrasing. The devil would be in the details, but I suspect that the districts centered on the principle cities of each county would be D. Other districts would be from Safe R to swingish.
Ventura-[CD24] has enough for a district strictly inside the county. I think, at best, the Rs could gain a tossup, but more likely a Lean or Liley D district would be the result.
Orange [CD46-48][D6.57] could have a significant effect influencing 2 Districts instead of 1 in the county [out of 4]. May not be immediate, but a Republican who starts the decade in a North Orange district should not be too comfortable over the decade.
Sacramento.[CD03, CD05] [D2.87] The county has population for 2 districts. One for Sacramento city, the change in registration would have no effect. The question is what is happening outside the city, which I think now is tossup or lean R.